29 september 2014 - stanlib · the rampant us dollar has been hurting ... the next 5 years ......

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29 September 2014

Contents

Contents .................................................................................................................................... 2

Newsflash .................................................................................................................................. 3

Market Comment ........................................................................................................................................................... 3

Other Commentators ...................................................................................................................................................... 4

Economic Update ....................................................................................................................... 6

Weekly Market Analysis ............................................................................................................. 8

STANLIB Money Market Fund ......................................................................................................................................... 9

STANLIB Enhanced Yield Fund ........................................................................................................................................ 9

STANLIB Income Fund ..................................................................................................................................................... 9

STANLIB Flexible Income Fund ...................................................................................................................................... 10

STANLIB Multi-Manager Absolute Income Fund .......................................................................................................... 10

Newsflash

History indicates that starting with an All Share index PE ratio of 17, the next 5 years

will provide an annual return of about 9.5%.

Market Comment

Thankfully September is almost over. It’s been a tough month for markets, although of course that creates

opportunities.

The rampant US dollar has been hurting the euro exactly as Mario Draghi, President of the European Central

Bank, wanted, to improve Europe’s fortunes via boosting inflation and helping exports. The euro is down 9.3% in

the last four months. That is a major move for the world’s 2nd

biggest currency versus the biggest currency, in

such a short space of time!

However it has been hurting in other ways, notably many emerging market currencies, including our rand.

Bloomberg noted this morning that the Brazilian currency is down 8% versus the dollar in September, Turkey’s

currency is down 6% and the rand is down 6%. The Indonesian rupiah is at a 22 month low and the Indian rupee a

7 month low. The S Korean won is down 3% today!

The strong dollar in turn is hurting commodity prices. That is certainly a positive for consumers around the world,

as well as most if not all importers.

It is a big problem for mining companies though, especially when one of the most profitable metals, iron ore, has

fallen some 41% in only nine months, aggravated by the huge jump in supply from mostly the Australians.

Avior Capital Markets points out this morning that exports of iron ore from Port Hedland in Australia (Australia’s

largest iron ore port) were up 36.5% in August year-on-year.

In the past two months, the JSE Mining Index has fallen by 16.7%, despite rand weakness, giving up its 2014 gains.

Billiton is down 17% in the past two months, trading now at December levels, Anglo American is down 14%, back

at March levels and Kumba is down 31% at a new five year low.

On the back of the weaker platinum price and struggling production, Impala Platinum is down a whopping 31% so

far in 2014, while Anglo Plats is down 7%, although it has fallen 28% from its high in April.

Impala amazingly is now 11% lower than its 2008/9 crash low and is in fact trading at the same price first seen

twelve years ago in 2002.

Lonmin, the 3rd

biggest platinum producer, is a staggering 70% below its 2008/9 crash low, trading at the same

price as sixteen years ago in 1998. The share reached a peak of 623 rand a share in 2007 and is now at 33 rand

(down almost 95%!!!).

So…are these falls in mining share prices creating opportunities? For the bold and the brave, yes, but the more

cautious investor would still be concerned that the US dollar could continue to gain against the euro - and

probably therefore by implication against most other currencies. Also the slowdown in the Chinese and many

other economies is a factor too, which could negatively affect demand for metals.

The problem is that earnings forecasts for mining companies are having to be downgraded constantly as the

metal prices continue to fall. Even the Brent oil price is down 16% in dollars in the past three months. The copper

price has not been nearly as bad, down 8.4% in dollar terms this year, but still above its levels of March and June.

As for the other indices, the JSE Financials Index was down 5.3% from its peak at Thursday’s close, before

bouncing a bit since then. The JSE Industrials Index is down 4.5%, trading at June levels.

The JSE All Share Index is down 5% from its peak at end July, trading at May levels.

The ALSI is now trading at 17 times earnings of the past 12 months (PE ratio), which is still historically high. This is

one standard deviation above the mean of 14.7 since 1994.

It is of course quite heavily swayed by the very high valuations of some of the rand-hedge shares. SAB is trading

at 29.5 times earnings and Naspers at 85.8 times earnings (the latter is valued more by the valuation of its

investment in Tencent than by its earnings).

Nevertheless, history indicates that starting with a PE ratio of 17, the next 5 years will provide an annual return of

about 9.5%.

On the international front, the MSCI World Index is down 3.2% from its recent record high, in dollar terms, while

the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 6.9% (in the last 3 weeks!), aggravated by weak currencies and weak

mining shares.

However, in rand terms the MSCI World Index is up 2.9% in September and very close to its record high of eleven

days ago.

Meanwhile we have seen a sharp correction of 7% in the dollar price of the Global Property Fund, responding to

the recent rise in bond yields and possibly hurting from the fall in other currencies (non-US holdings) relative to

the dollar.

Below we show a chart of the rand to the dollar. A few months ago the uptrend for the dollar (downtrend for the

rand) from 2011 was actually broken, but now sharp rand weakness indicates that the rand may jump back into

its downtrend.

Or….the rand may turn in the next few days or week and end its downtrend around this level, close to 11.30.

Only the future can tell just what will happen.

Source: I-Net Bridge

Other Commentators

US Market Analyst, Elaine Garzarelli

Although Garza’s quants model reading slipped from 80% to 70% last week, that is still a bullish reading (a level

below 30% is bearish).

As usual, she says corrections during bull markets are normal and should be limited to 4-7% for the US S&P 500

Index.

She is expecting US earnings to be up 10.3% in 2014 and 14.8% in 2015. This compares closely with Chen Zhao of

BCA’s numbers.

Earnings strength helps to buffer shares against worries about Fed tightening and possible geo-political issues

that may come up.

US share valuations are still good in Garza’s view (VERY different from most, including BCA). The S&P 500 Index

could still gain 20% from current levels, without being overpriced, based on her earnings forecast for 2015 of 136.

The number of bullish investment advisors in the US dropped to 48% from 52.5% a week ago, but this needs to

fall below 39% for this indicator to be sufficiently negative to be bullish (a contrarian indicator).

Housing is key to the economic recovery. Mortgage rates are about 4.2%, down from 4.4% a year ago.

Additionally, demographic forces are important in driving housing and have absorbed the excess homes that were

built during the boom years.

House prices rose about 4.7% year-over-year to about $210,000 from $160,000 at the recession low.

Garza thinks there is a good chance that the US GDP could be stronger than 3% for the third quarter.

BCA Research

Chen Zhao discusses the strong dollar this week, noting that the last time US shares and the US dollar were

simultaneously in a bull market was 14 years ago, in the second half of the 1990s.

Since then the correlation between shares and the dollar has been negative. Shares have moved up when the

dollar was falling and vice versa (during the 2008/9 crash).

Since 2008 the euro has experienced three major shakeouts, all coinciding with bad stock market corrections.

Therefore a bearish view on the euro could be worrying for the stock market for some, but not for Chen, because

the ECB actually wanted the euro to fall this time, to assist both inflation rising and to stimulate the economy.

Market correlations do change over time as underlying economic forces evolve.

Chen says world financial markets are going through some major shifts, with old correlations crumbling and new

ones taking their place. So investors need to be both vigilant and non-dogmatic.

But Chen’s view on commodities, about which he has been spot-on over the past few months, is that if you take a

bullish view on the dollar, then you have to stay bearish on commodities, as historically the dollar is the most

reliable explanatory variable of commodity prices.

On government bonds, he says the investment world is bearish on government bonds but he is not, because of

deleveraging in much of the world and because of excess savings, both of which are bullish for bonds. He says the

BCA bond model shows that bond risk is now neutral for the 10-year Treasury bond.

Chen is not yet in favour of upgrading the Japanese stock market, because “Abenomics” seems to be waning. The

problem is there is no supply-side restructuring and therefore no evidence that real income growth is picking up.

The real test to watch in terms of whether Abenomics is triggering a revival in the Japanese economy is the yen-

equity market correlation, specifically whether Japanese shares can outperform without the support of a falling

yen. So far that has not happened.

Paul Hansen

Director: Retail Investing

Economic Update

Locally, the Reserve Bank’s Leading Indicator unexpectedly improved in July. Growth y/y rose to 0.5%, which is the best performance since August last year. 8 out of the 11 components were positive, including those relating to the manufacturing sector suggesting that now that strike action is over, economic activity is returning to normal. Encouragingly, the moderate improvement in the indicator suggests stagnation rather than a major collapse in the economy. PPI inflation for final manufactured goods decreased in August to 7.2%y/y from 8.0%y/y in July, and a recent peak of 8.8%y/y in April. Even more encouraging is the fairly dramatic decline in the PPI inflation rate for intermediate goods which was down to 6.5%y/y in August from 8.5%y/y in July and a recent peak of 10.5% in February. There was also a steep fall in the inflation rate of mining products to 3.6% in August, from 7.8% in July. It is important to note that PPI no longer has a good relationship with CPI because of its weighty changes and volatility. However, what is significant here is that PPI inflation for agriculture is considerably lower which is good news for food inflation and should bode well for CPI and could suggest that food inflation might drop back in the coming months to be within the inflation target again. Offshore, the US Federal Reserve released the Q2 2014 update of the US household balance sheet. In Q2 2014 US household net wealth rose by $7.7 trillion y/y to another record high of $81.49 trillion, boosted by a further surge in the value of financial assets. In addition, household debt servicing costs fell further, and are at their lowest level since the data started in 1980. At the end of Q2 2014, the value of US household assets amounted to a staggering $95.4 trillion. This is a substantial $8.0 trillion up since the end of Q2 2013 and a phenomenal $26.4 trillion up from the low in Q1 2009. Most of the gain over the past year ($4.2 trillion) has been due to a rise in the value of financial assets, which are at a record high. Housing asset values have risen by $1.8 trillion over the same period. US household assets have declined in only 26 of the last 251 quarters. 6 of these declines occurred following the bursting of the Tech-bubble in 2001/2002 and another 6 occurred with the bursting of the credit bubble in 2008/2009. The total loss in household asset values during the credit crisis far exceeded the loss during the bursting of the Tech-bubble. The value of households assets are at a record high and $13.3 trillion above the previous peak in 2007. At the end of Q2 2014, the level of US total household debt was recorded at $13.9 trillion; comprising mostly home mortgages (67% of total). Household mortgage debt rose by a massive 104% from the third quarter 2001 to the first quarter of 2008. That is an increase of $5.4 trillion in a period of just 7 years. During this time US new home starts rose from an annual rate of 1.55 million houses to over 2.2 million homes a year in early 2006. (With the bursting of the sub-prime bubble, home starts fell to a record low of below 500 000 a year). The total stock of US housing units increased from 119.3 million in 2002 to 130.8 million in 2008, a rise of 10.8 million units in 6 years. US consumers have been trying to deleverage, especially their exposure to mortgage debt, which are now $1.3 trillion below the peak in Q1 2008. This decline, coupled with a rise in personal income, has meant that the ratio of US household debt to personal disposable income has fallen from a peak of 135% in Q4 2008 to around 107.5% currently. While this ratio would still be considered high by historical standards, it is meaningfully below the peak. Debt servicing costs has also been on the decline, dropping from over 13% of disposable income in early 2008 to 9.9% currently. The current level of household debt servicing costs is the lowest since the data series started in 1980. As a result of the strong rise in asset values during the past few quarters, the net worth of US households rose to a record high of $81.49 trillion in Q2 2014; an increase of $7.68 trillion relative to the end of Q2 2013. Household net wealth has risen by an impressive $26.5 trillion since the low in Q1 2009. US net wealth represents a very high 627.9% of household disposable income. The current ratio is well above the long-term average of 498%, which dates back to 1946. Worryingly, on the previous two occasions that the ratio of households wealth to disposable income that has exceeded 600% have been associated with financial market bubbles, namely the Tech-bubble in 2001/2002 and sub-prime housing bubble in 2008/2009. Overall, the US balance sheet has recovered impressively since the financial market crisis in 2008/2009. The US household sector is now the wealthiest they have ever been; boost by the equity market. The rise in household wealth should continue to boost consumer confidence and household consumption, although US income and wealth distribution remains relatively uneven.

In the emerging markets, Zambia inflation was recorded at 7.8%y/y for the month of September 2014, down from the 8%y/y recorded in August and July. This is the first decrease in the rate of price increases in 11 months and continues the moderation in the pace of price increases which started accelerating at the end of last year. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed only 3.6 percentage points to overall inflation and the remainder of the 4.2 percentage points was from the non-food product items. This was as a result of the housing, water, electricity & gas component which experienced price increases of 11.5%, down from 12.3% in the previous month. Most of the other categories maintained roughly the same rate of price increases. The trade surplus was recorded at ZMW98.4 million in August 2014, which is down from the ZMW113 million recorded in the previous month, but is the third highest amount of the year. The highest recorded surplus for 2014 was the ZMW295 million recorded in January. The weak currency seems to be benefiting exports as the currency has depreciated by 13.13% against the dollar in the year to date which makes it the second worst performer of major Sub-Saharan African currencies after the Ghanaian Cedi. The Bank of Botswana held the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 26 September 2014 and decided to keep rates on hold at 7.5%. The Bank argued that the current is consistent with keeping inflation within the 3% – 6% target band in the medium term. At the latest print, consumer inflation was recorded at 4.6% in August 2014 slightly up from 4.5% in July as domestic demand remained weak and the international price developments remain benign. According the Bank, the risk to this outlook are increases in administered prices, government levies and international oil prices being above forecasts, with the latter actually likely to contribute to prices decreases. The economy expanded by 5.9% in the 12 months to March 2014. The mining sector grew by 14.2% as mining production continues to increase and the non-mining sector grew by 4.6% as a result of low growth in incomes.

Please follow our regular economic updates on twitter @lingskevin

Kevin Lings, Laura Jones & Kganya Kgare

(STANLIB Economics Team)

Weekly Market Analysis

Currencies/ Indices/ Commodities Friday’s Close

26/09/14

Weekly Move

(%)

YTD

(%)

Indices

*MSCI World – US Dollar 1707.88 -1.86 2.82

*MSCI World – Rand 19168.07 -0.43 11.47

*MSCI Emerging Market – US Dollar 1023.91 -2.85 2.12

*MSCI Emerging Market – Rand 11491.65 -1.43 10.71

All Share Index – US Dollar 4424.73 -4.91 -0.99

All Share Index – Rand 49663.64 -3.50 7.37

All Bond Index 464.02 -0.28 6.27

Listed Property J253 1579.16 -2.14 13.16

Currencies

US Dollar/Rand 11.22 1.48 8.45

Euro/Rand 14.24 0.20 -1.29

Sterling/Rand 18.22 1.27 5.04

Euro/US Dollar 1.27 -1.15 -7.71

Commodities

Oil Brent Crude Spot Price ($/bl) 96.80 -1.37 -12.64

Gold Price $/oz 1219.21 0.23 1.14

Platinum Price S/oz 1302 -2.76 -5.10

Source: I-Net Bridge

* MSCI - Morgan Stanley Capital International

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STANLIB Enhanced Yield Fund

Effective Yield: 6.36%

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Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of

participatory interests may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. A

schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from the company/scheme. CIS can

engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the

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Fluctuations or movements in exchange rates may cause the value of underlying international investments to go up or

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STANLIB Flexible Income Fund

Effective Yield: 6.99%

Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from the company/scheme. CIS can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the overall costs.” The above quoted yield will vary from day to day and is a current yield as at 26 September 2014.

STANLIB Multi-Manager Absolute Income Fund

Effective Yield: 6.17%

Collective Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. A schedule of fees and charges and maximum commissions is available on request from the company/scheme. CIS can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. Commission and incentives may be paid and if so, would be included in the overall costs.” The above quoted yield will vary from day to day and is a current yield as at 26 September 2014.

Glossary of terminology Bonds A bond is an interest-bearing debt instrument, traditionally issued by governments as part of

their budget funding sources, and now also issued by local authorities (municipalities),

parastatals (Eskom) and companies. Bonds issued by the central government are often

called “gilts”. Bond issuers pay interest (called the “coupon”) to the bondholder every 6

months. The price/value of a bond has an inverse relationship to the prevailing interest rate,

so if the interest rate goes up, the value goes down, and vice versa. Bonds/gilts generally

have a lower risk than shares because the holder of a gilt has the security of knowing that

the gilt will be repaid in full by government or semi-government authorities at a specific

time in the future. An investment in this type of asset should be viewed with a 3 to 6 year

horizon.

Cash An investment in cash usually refers to a savings or fixed-deposit account with a bank, or to

a money market investment. Cash is generally regarded as the safest investment. Whilst it is

theoretically possible to make a capital loss investing in cash, it is highly unlikely. An

investment in this type of asset should be viewed with a 1 to 3 year horizon.

Collective

Investments

Collective investments are investments in which investors‟ funds are pooled and managed

by professional managers. Investing in shares has traditionally yielded unrivalled returns,

offering investors the opportunity to build real wealth. Yet, the large amounts of money

required to purchase these shares is often out of reach of smaller investors. The pooling of

investors’ funds makes collective investments the ideal option, providing cost effective

access to the world’s stock markets. This is why investing in collective investments has

become so popular the world over and is considered a sound financial move by most

investors.

Compound Interest Compound interest refers to the interest earned on interest that was earned earlier and

credited to the capital amount. For example, if you deposit R1 000 in a bank account at 10%

and interest is calculated annually; your balance will be R1 100 at the end of the first year

and R1 210 at the end of the second year. That extra R10, which was earned on the interest

from the first year, is the result of compound interest ("interest on interest"). Interest can

also be compounded on a monthly, quarterly, half-yearly or other basis.

Dividend Yields The dividend yield is a financial ratio that shows how much a company pays out in dividends

each year relative to its share price. The higher the yield, the more money you will get back

on your investment.

Dividends When you buy equities offered by a company, you are effectively buying a portion of the

company. Dividends are an investor’s share of a company’s profits, given to him or her as a

part-owner of the company.

Earnings per share Earnings per share is a measure of how much money the company has available for

distribution to shareholders. A company’s earnings per share is a good indication of its

profitability and is generally considered to be the most important variable in determining a

company’s share price.

Equity A share represents an institution/individual’s ownership in a listed company and is the

vehicle through which they are able to “share” in the profits made by that company. As the

company grows, and the expectation of improved profits increases, the market price of the

share will increase and this translates into a capital gain for the shareholder. Similarly,

negative sentiment about the company will result in the share price falling. Shares/equities

are usually considered to have the potential for the highest return of all the investment

classes, but with a higher level of risk i.e. share investments have the most volatile returns

over the short term. An investment in this type of asset should be viewed with a 7 to 10 year

horizon.

Financial Markets Financial markets are the institutional arrangements and conventions that exist for the issue

and trading of financial instruments.

Fixed Interest Funds Fixed interest funds invest in bonds, fixed-interest and money market instruments. Interest

income is a feature of these funds and, in general, capital should remain stable.

Gross Domestic

Product (GDP)

The Gross Domestic Product measures the total volume of goods and services produced in

the economy. Therefore, the percentage change in the GDP from year to year reflects the

country's annual economic growth rate.

Growth Funds Growth funds seek maximum capital appreciation by investing in rapidly growing companies

across all sectors of the JSE. Growth companies are those whose profits are in a strong

upward trend, or are expected to grow strongly, and which normally trade at a higher-than-

average price/earnings ratio.

Industrial Funds Industrial funds invest in selected industrial companies listed on the JSE, but excluding all

companies listed in the resources and financial economic groups.

Investment Portfolio An investment portfolio is a collection of securities owned by an individual or institution

(such as a collective investment scheme). A funds‛ portfolio may include a combination of

financial instruments such as bonds, equities, money market securities, etc. The theory is

that the investments should be spread over a range of options in order to diversify and

spread risk.

JSE Securities

Exchange

The primary role of the JSE Securities Exchange is to provide a market where securities can

be freely traded under regulated procedures.

Price to earnings

ratio

Price to earnings ratio or p: e ratio is calculated by dividing the price per share by the

earnings per share. This ratio provides a better indication of the value of a share, than the

market price alone. For example, all things being equal, a R10 share with a P/E of 75 is much

more “expensive” than a R100 share with a P/E of 20.

Property Property has some attributes of shares and some attributes of bonds. Property yields are

normally stable and predictable because they comprise many contractual leases. These

leases generate rental income that is passed through to investors. Property share prices

however fluctuate with supply and demand and are counter cyclical to the interest rate

cycle. Property is an excellent inflation hedge as rentals escalate with inflation, ensuring

distribution growth, and property values escalate with inflation ensuring net asset value

growth. This ensures real returns over the long term.

Resources and Basic

Industries Funds

These funds seek capital appreciation by investing in the shares of companies whose main

business operations involve the exploration, mining, distribution and processing of metals,

minerals, energy, chemicals, forestry and other natural resources, or where at least 50

percent of their earnings are derived from such business activities, and excludes service

providers to these companies.

Smaller Companies

Funds

Smaller Companies Funds seek maximum capital appreciation by investing in both

established smaller companies and emerging companies. At least 75 percent of the fund

must be invested in small- to mid-cap shares which fall outside of the top 40 JSE-listed

companies by market capitalisation.

Value Funds These funds aim to deliver medium- to long-term capital appreciation by investing in value

shares with low price/earnings ratios and shares which trade at a discount to their net asset

value.

Growth Funds Growth funds seek maximum capital appreciation by investing in rapidly growing companies

across all sectors of the JSE. Growth companies are those whose profits are in a strong

upward trend, or are expected to grow strongly, and which normally trade at a higher-than-

average price/earnings ratio.

Sources: Unit Trust and Collective Investments (September 2007), The Financial Sector Charter Council, Personal Finance (30 November 2002),

Introduction to Financial Markets, Personal Finance, Quarter 4 2007, Investopedia (www.investopedia.com) and The South African Financial

Planning Handbook 2004.

Disclaimer The price of each unit of a domestic money market portfolio is aimed at a constant value. The total return to the investor is primarily made up of

interest received but, may also include any gain or loss made on any particular instrument. In most cases this will merely have the effect of

increasing or decreasing the daily yield, but in an extreme case it can have the effect of reducing the capital value of the portfolio. Collective

Investment Schemes in Securities (CIS) are generally medium to long term investments. The value of participatory interests may go down as well as

up and past performance is not necessarily a guide to the future. An investment in the participations of a CIS in securities is not the same as a

deposit with a banking institution. CIS are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. A schedule of fees and charges and

maximum commissions is available on request from STANLIB Collective Investments Ltd (the Manager). Commission and incentives may be paid and

if so, would be included in the overall costs. A fund of funds is a portfolio that invests in portfolios of collective investment schemes, which levy

their own charges, which could result in a higher fee structure for these portfolios. Forward pricing is used. Fluctuations or movements in exchange

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