29 september 2014 - stanlib · the rampant us dollar has been hurting ... the next 5 years ......
TRANSCRIPT
Contents
Contents .................................................................................................................................... 2
Newsflash .................................................................................................................................. 3
Market Comment ........................................................................................................................................................... 3
Other Commentators ...................................................................................................................................................... 4
Economic Update ....................................................................................................................... 6
Weekly Market Analysis ............................................................................................................. 8
STANLIB Money Market Fund ......................................................................................................................................... 9
STANLIB Enhanced Yield Fund ........................................................................................................................................ 9
STANLIB Income Fund ..................................................................................................................................................... 9
STANLIB Flexible Income Fund ...................................................................................................................................... 10
STANLIB Multi-Manager Absolute Income Fund .......................................................................................................... 10
Newsflash
History indicates that starting with an All Share index PE ratio of 17, the next 5 years
will provide an annual return of about 9.5%.
Market Comment
Thankfully September is almost over. It’s been a tough month for markets, although of course that creates
opportunities.
The rampant US dollar has been hurting the euro exactly as Mario Draghi, President of the European Central
Bank, wanted, to improve Europe’s fortunes via boosting inflation and helping exports. The euro is down 9.3% in
the last four months. That is a major move for the world’s 2nd
biggest currency versus the biggest currency, in
such a short space of time!
However it has been hurting in other ways, notably many emerging market currencies, including our rand.
Bloomberg noted this morning that the Brazilian currency is down 8% versus the dollar in September, Turkey’s
currency is down 6% and the rand is down 6%. The Indonesian rupiah is at a 22 month low and the Indian rupee a
7 month low. The S Korean won is down 3% today!
The strong dollar in turn is hurting commodity prices. That is certainly a positive for consumers around the world,
as well as most if not all importers.
It is a big problem for mining companies though, especially when one of the most profitable metals, iron ore, has
fallen some 41% in only nine months, aggravated by the huge jump in supply from mostly the Australians.
Avior Capital Markets points out this morning that exports of iron ore from Port Hedland in Australia (Australia’s
largest iron ore port) were up 36.5% in August year-on-year.
In the past two months, the JSE Mining Index has fallen by 16.7%, despite rand weakness, giving up its 2014 gains.
Billiton is down 17% in the past two months, trading now at December levels, Anglo American is down 14%, back
at March levels and Kumba is down 31% at a new five year low.
On the back of the weaker platinum price and struggling production, Impala Platinum is down a whopping 31% so
far in 2014, while Anglo Plats is down 7%, although it has fallen 28% from its high in April.
Impala amazingly is now 11% lower than its 2008/9 crash low and is in fact trading at the same price first seen
twelve years ago in 2002.
Lonmin, the 3rd
biggest platinum producer, is a staggering 70% below its 2008/9 crash low, trading at the same
price as sixteen years ago in 1998. The share reached a peak of 623 rand a share in 2007 and is now at 33 rand
(down almost 95%!!!).
So…are these falls in mining share prices creating opportunities? For the bold and the brave, yes, but the more
cautious investor would still be concerned that the US dollar could continue to gain against the euro - and
probably therefore by implication against most other currencies. Also the slowdown in the Chinese and many
other economies is a factor too, which could negatively affect demand for metals.
The problem is that earnings forecasts for mining companies are having to be downgraded constantly as the
metal prices continue to fall. Even the Brent oil price is down 16% in dollars in the past three months. The copper
price has not been nearly as bad, down 8.4% in dollar terms this year, but still above its levels of March and June.
As for the other indices, the JSE Financials Index was down 5.3% from its peak at Thursday’s close, before
bouncing a bit since then. The JSE Industrials Index is down 4.5%, trading at June levels.
The JSE All Share Index is down 5% from its peak at end July, trading at May levels.
The ALSI is now trading at 17 times earnings of the past 12 months (PE ratio), which is still historically high. This is
one standard deviation above the mean of 14.7 since 1994.
It is of course quite heavily swayed by the very high valuations of some of the rand-hedge shares. SAB is trading
at 29.5 times earnings and Naspers at 85.8 times earnings (the latter is valued more by the valuation of its
investment in Tencent than by its earnings).
Nevertheless, history indicates that starting with a PE ratio of 17, the next 5 years will provide an annual return of
about 9.5%.
On the international front, the MSCI World Index is down 3.2% from its recent record high, in dollar terms, while
the MSCI Emerging Markets Index is down 6.9% (in the last 3 weeks!), aggravated by weak currencies and weak
mining shares.
However, in rand terms the MSCI World Index is up 2.9% in September and very close to its record high of eleven
days ago.
Meanwhile we have seen a sharp correction of 7% in the dollar price of the Global Property Fund, responding to
the recent rise in bond yields and possibly hurting from the fall in other currencies (non-US holdings) relative to
the dollar.
Below we show a chart of the rand to the dollar. A few months ago the uptrend for the dollar (downtrend for the
rand) from 2011 was actually broken, but now sharp rand weakness indicates that the rand may jump back into
its downtrend.
Or….the rand may turn in the next few days or week and end its downtrend around this level, close to 11.30.
Only the future can tell just what will happen.
Source: I-Net Bridge
Other Commentators
US Market Analyst, Elaine Garzarelli
Although Garza’s quants model reading slipped from 80% to 70% last week, that is still a bullish reading (a level
below 30% is bearish).
As usual, she says corrections during bull markets are normal and should be limited to 4-7% for the US S&P 500
Index.
She is expecting US earnings to be up 10.3% in 2014 and 14.8% in 2015. This compares closely with Chen Zhao of
BCA’s numbers.
Earnings strength helps to buffer shares against worries about Fed tightening and possible geo-political issues
that may come up.
US share valuations are still good in Garza’s view (VERY different from most, including BCA). The S&P 500 Index
could still gain 20% from current levels, without being overpriced, based on her earnings forecast for 2015 of 136.
The number of bullish investment advisors in the US dropped to 48% from 52.5% a week ago, but this needs to
fall below 39% for this indicator to be sufficiently negative to be bullish (a contrarian indicator).
Housing is key to the economic recovery. Mortgage rates are about 4.2%, down from 4.4% a year ago.
Additionally, demographic forces are important in driving housing and have absorbed the excess homes that were
built during the boom years.
House prices rose about 4.7% year-over-year to about $210,000 from $160,000 at the recession low.
Garza thinks there is a good chance that the US GDP could be stronger than 3% for the third quarter.
BCA Research
Chen Zhao discusses the strong dollar this week, noting that the last time US shares and the US dollar were
simultaneously in a bull market was 14 years ago, in the second half of the 1990s.
Since then the correlation between shares and the dollar has been negative. Shares have moved up when the
dollar was falling and vice versa (during the 2008/9 crash).
Since 2008 the euro has experienced three major shakeouts, all coinciding with bad stock market corrections.
Therefore a bearish view on the euro could be worrying for the stock market for some, but not for Chen, because
the ECB actually wanted the euro to fall this time, to assist both inflation rising and to stimulate the economy.
Market correlations do change over time as underlying economic forces evolve.
Chen says world financial markets are going through some major shifts, with old correlations crumbling and new
ones taking their place. So investors need to be both vigilant and non-dogmatic.
But Chen’s view on commodities, about which he has been spot-on over the past few months, is that if you take a
bullish view on the dollar, then you have to stay bearish on commodities, as historically the dollar is the most
reliable explanatory variable of commodity prices.
On government bonds, he says the investment world is bearish on government bonds but he is not, because of
deleveraging in much of the world and because of excess savings, both of which are bullish for bonds. He says the
BCA bond model shows that bond risk is now neutral for the 10-year Treasury bond.
Chen is not yet in favour of upgrading the Japanese stock market, because “Abenomics” seems to be waning. The
problem is there is no supply-side restructuring and therefore no evidence that real income growth is picking up.
The real test to watch in terms of whether Abenomics is triggering a revival in the Japanese economy is the yen-
equity market correlation, specifically whether Japanese shares can outperform without the support of a falling
yen. So far that has not happened.
Paul Hansen
Director: Retail Investing
Economic Update
Locally, the Reserve Bank’s Leading Indicator unexpectedly improved in July. Growth y/y rose to 0.5%, which is the best performance since August last year. 8 out of the 11 components were positive, including those relating to the manufacturing sector suggesting that now that strike action is over, economic activity is returning to normal. Encouragingly, the moderate improvement in the indicator suggests stagnation rather than a major collapse in the economy. PPI inflation for final manufactured goods decreased in August to 7.2%y/y from 8.0%y/y in July, and a recent peak of 8.8%y/y in April. Even more encouraging is the fairly dramatic decline in the PPI inflation rate for intermediate goods which was down to 6.5%y/y in August from 8.5%y/y in July and a recent peak of 10.5% in February. There was also a steep fall in the inflation rate of mining products to 3.6% in August, from 7.8% in July. It is important to note that PPI no longer has a good relationship with CPI because of its weighty changes and volatility. However, what is significant here is that PPI inflation for agriculture is considerably lower which is good news for food inflation and should bode well for CPI and could suggest that food inflation might drop back in the coming months to be within the inflation target again. Offshore, the US Federal Reserve released the Q2 2014 update of the US household balance sheet. In Q2 2014 US household net wealth rose by $7.7 trillion y/y to another record high of $81.49 trillion, boosted by a further surge in the value of financial assets. In addition, household debt servicing costs fell further, and are at their lowest level since the data started in 1980. At the end of Q2 2014, the value of US household assets amounted to a staggering $95.4 trillion. This is a substantial $8.0 trillion up since the end of Q2 2013 and a phenomenal $26.4 trillion up from the low in Q1 2009. Most of the gain over the past year ($4.2 trillion) has been due to a rise in the value of financial assets, which are at a record high. Housing asset values have risen by $1.8 trillion over the same period. US household assets have declined in only 26 of the last 251 quarters. 6 of these declines occurred following the bursting of the Tech-bubble in 2001/2002 and another 6 occurred with the bursting of the credit bubble in 2008/2009. The total loss in household asset values during the credit crisis far exceeded the loss during the bursting of the Tech-bubble. The value of households assets are at a record high and $13.3 trillion above the previous peak in 2007. At the end of Q2 2014, the level of US total household debt was recorded at $13.9 trillion; comprising mostly home mortgages (67% of total). Household mortgage debt rose by a massive 104% from the third quarter 2001 to the first quarter of 2008. That is an increase of $5.4 trillion in a period of just 7 years. During this time US new home starts rose from an annual rate of 1.55 million houses to over 2.2 million homes a year in early 2006. (With the bursting of the sub-prime bubble, home starts fell to a record low of below 500 000 a year). The total stock of US housing units increased from 119.3 million in 2002 to 130.8 million in 2008, a rise of 10.8 million units in 6 years. US consumers have been trying to deleverage, especially their exposure to mortgage debt, which are now $1.3 trillion below the peak in Q1 2008. This decline, coupled with a rise in personal income, has meant that the ratio of US household debt to personal disposable income has fallen from a peak of 135% in Q4 2008 to around 107.5% currently. While this ratio would still be considered high by historical standards, it is meaningfully below the peak. Debt servicing costs has also been on the decline, dropping from over 13% of disposable income in early 2008 to 9.9% currently. The current level of household debt servicing costs is the lowest since the data series started in 1980. As a result of the strong rise in asset values during the past few quarters, the net worth of US households rose to a record high of $81.49 trillion in Q2 2014; an increase of $7.68 trillion relative to the end of Q2 2013. Household net wealth has risen by an impressive $26.5 trillion since the low in Q1 2009. US net wealth represents a very high 627.9% of household disposable income. The current ratio is well above the long-term average of 498%, which dates back to 1946. Worryingly, on the previous two occasions that the ratio of households wealth to disposable income that has exceeded 600% have been associated with financial market bubbles, namely the Tech-bubble in 2001/2002 and sub-prime housing bubble in 2008/2009. Overall, the US balance sheet has recovered impressively since the financial market crisis in 2008/2009. The US household sector is now the wealthiest they have ever been; boost by the equity market. The rise in household wealth should continue to boost consumer confidence and household consumption, although US income and wealth distribution remains relatively uneven.
In the emerging markets, Zambia inflation was recorded at 7.8%y/y for the month of September 2014, down from the 8%y/y recorded in August and July. This is the first decrease in the rate of price increases in 11 months and continues the moderation in the pace of price increases which started accelerating at the end of last year. Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed only 3.6 percentage points to overall inflation and the remainder of the 4.2 percentage points was from the non-food product items. This was as a result of the housing, water, electricity & gas component which experienced price increases of 11.5%, down from 12.3% in the previous month. Most of the other categories maintained roughly the same rate of price increases. The trade surplus was recorded at ZMW98.4 million in August 2014, which is down from the ZMW113 million recorded in the previous month, but is the third highest amount of the year. The highest recorded surplus for 2014 was the ZMW295 million recorded in January. The weak currency seems to be benefiting exports as the currency has depreciated by 13.13% against the dollar in the year to date which makes it the second worst performer of major Sub-Saharan African currencies after the Ghanaian Cedi. The Bank of Botswana held the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 26 September 2014 and decided to keep rates on hold at 7.5%. The Bank argued that the current is consistent with keeping inflation within the 3% – 6% target band in the medium term. At the latest print, consumer inflation was recorded at 4.6% in August 2014 slightly up from 4.5% in July as domestic demand remained weak and the international price developments remain benign. According the Bank, the risk to this outlook are increases in administered prices, government levies and international oil prices being above forecasts, with the latter actually likely to contribute to prices decreases. The economy expanded by 5.9% in the 12 months to March 2014. The mining sector grew by 14.2% as mining production continues to increase and the non-mining sector grew by 4.6% as a result of low growth in incomes.
Please follow our regular economic updates on twitter @lingskevin
Kevin Lings, Laura Jones & Kganya Kgare
(STANLIB Economics Team)
Weekly Market Analysis
Currencies/ Indices/ Commodities Friday’s Close
26/09/14
Weekly Move
(%)
YTD
(%)
Indices
*MSCI World – US Dollar 1707.88 -1.86 2.82
*MSCI World – Rand 19168.07 -0.43 11.47
*MSCI Emerging Market – US Dollar 1023.91 -2.85 2.12
*MSCI Emerging Market – Rand 11491.65 -1.43 10.71
All Share Index – US Dollar 4424.73 -4.91 -0.99
All Share Index – Rand 49663.64 -3.50 7.37
All Bond Index 464.02 -0.28 6.27
Listed Property J253 1579.16 -2.14 13.16
Currencies
US Dollar/Rand 11.22 1.48 8.45
Euro/Rand 14.24 0.20 -1.29
Sterling/Rand 18.22 1.27 5.04
Euro/US Dollar 1.27 -1.15 -7.71
Commodities
Oil Brent Crude Spot Price ($/bl) 96.80 -1.37 -12.64
Gold Price $/oz 1219.21 0.23 1.14
Platinum Price S/oz 1302 -2.76 -5.10
Source: I-Net Bridge
* MSCI - Morgan Stanley Capital International
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Sources: Unit Trust and Collective Investments (September 2007), The Financial Sector Charter Council, Personal Finance (30 November 2002),
Introduction to Financial Markets, Personal Finance, Quarter 4 2007, Investopedia (www.investopedia.com) and The South African Financial
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