1DSCI 2710-001 Spring – 2015TuTh 9:30 – 10:50 AM: Classroom: BLB 080

INSTRUCTOR: J.L. Dake, Ph. D.

OFFICE: BLB 358 D E-MAIL: dakej@unt.edu

OFFICE PHONE: 940-369-7218

OFFICE HOURS: W 9:00 – 10:30 am; TH 11:00 a.m. – 12:30 p.m. : Other hours by appointment. Feel free to come by-I am usually around. Best to let me know a time.

REQUIRED BOOKS

1. Business Statistics: Analytics for Decision Making by Kvanli/Pavur/Keeling Comment: The hard copy of this text will be used along with the electronic version available

on Blackboard. The hard copy is packaged with the access code. You cannot purchase the access code separately. To access the electronic version with its supporting materials, you will need to login to your section’s Blackboard website and then provide the access code that appears inside the front cover of your textbook upon your initial use of the electronic textbook material. After completing all the assigned homework for each chapter, you will take the chapter’s post-test in Blackboard, testing you over the assigned homework exercises of that chapter. These post-tests will be part of your final grade. Do not purchase a used version of the textbook since you will be unable to take the post-tests as the access codes are designed for one-semester use in this course by each student and are not transferable.

2. Technology Blackboard Learn is being used for this course. This web site is located at learn.unt.edu. & announcements will be posted here as needed. Click on “First Look” to view the requirements of the course.

IMPORTANT: If for any reason, you end up re-taking this course during another semester, this code will no longer be usable and you will need to purchase another code. Essentially, you are purchasing the rights to the Cengage material in Blackboard for one semester. Keep this in mind if you are deciding whether to drop the course. If you are retaking DSCI 2710 this semester, send an email to me and I will give you another textbook option. Be sure to tell when you last took the course and the instructor’s name. If you are retaking the course, you will not need to purchase another 30-character Hawkes code.

However, once you complete DSCI 2710, you will have access to the course materials in DSCI 3710 and will not be required to purchase a separate code in that course.

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3. Business Statistics:Hawk es Learning , by James S. Hawkes of Hawkes Learning. Notes: (1) This software is required to complete the assignments that are equivalent to a substantial part of your grade. (2) You can download this software by following the steps in Getting Started #2 (see bottom of this page). To actually run the software at home or in one of the COB labs, you must purchase an access code. For those of you with a Visa or MasterCard, follow Option 1. If you don=t have such a card, follow Option 2.

Option 1: Go to http://www.hawkeslearning.c om and select Get your Access Code. Then click on the button under Purchase your Access Code. Shop by School: University of North Texas - Denton Statistics will appear; select that and then pay. Option 2: Purchase the box containing this software in the UNT Bookstore or wherever this software is sold on campus. Inside the box is a software license number that is necessary in Step 4 (below). Obtain your access code by using Step 4.

4. Obtaining your Hawkes code: Log on to www.hawkeslearning.com and select Get your Access Code. Then click on the button under Get your Access Code. Be sure to select University of North Texas – Denton as the School. Then click on Submit. If there is a 15 minute delay in receiving your code, contact Hawkes Learning at 800-426-9538 and they will be happy to assist you. Be sure to enter your name exactly as the registrar at UNT has your name (e.g., no nicknames or newly-married names).

5. If you are planning on running on a Mac; make sure you choose that software.

The course ID is UNTBSTAT.After clicking on Getting Started, you will see the following seven PowerPoint files. Take a look at these seven files (in order) to get off to a smooth start in this course.

You may also find copies of old Practice Exams by going to the BLB Computer Lab: Computer --------S Drive-----------Dake Folder.

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EXTRA CREDIT

You can complete any of the following five Hawkes modules for extra credit (5 points each). They must be completed by the due date to obtain full credit.(1) Measures of Dispersion (Module 3.2a).(2) Classical Probability (Module 4.1).(3) Counting Rules (Module 4.3).(4) Find the Value of t (Module 6.5).(5) Estimating Means: Sigma Known (Module 8.3).

GOALS: At the end of the course, you should:

1. have an increased appreciation for the use of statistics in business decision making,2. be better able to select the appropriate statistical tool/methodology to aid in business decision making, 3. be able to use a computer spreadsheet program such as Excel to describe and analyze numerical data,4. be better able to communicate in the language of applied business statistics,5. have acquired a more positive attitude towards business statistics,6. be able to manipulate simple statistical formulae to solve non-verbal (numerical ) problems,7. have an enhanced ability to follow directions and instructions,8. have a much better vision of how analytics are used in analysis and business decisions,9. understand more about job/career potential of analytics and Decision Sciences.10. Think about becoming a Decision Sciences Major!

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TEACHING METHOD

1. You are encouraged to pay attention to commercials and news items in printed as well as audio-visual media to become aware of the wide use of statistics in our daily lives. To better assist you in understanding the use of these methodologies in business many of the class problems will be presented as simple business cases.

2. You should work the homework exercises assigned during the course since the post-test questions refer to these assigned exercises. In addition to the problems in the textbook, the Hawkes Learning modules are intended to assist you in better structuring the learning time you spend on practice problems.

EVALUATION

To demonstrate your ability to use quantitative techniques in business, you will answer exam questions based on short cases. Rather than being purely numerical, problems will be presented in word format. In addition, you will work on Excel case studies that require you to use an Excel spreadsheet program to analyze and describe real-world business data. By simulating real business problems and requiring you to communicate in writing, using the language of statistics, these evaluation instruments will reinforce the course objectives.

General Comments:11. Doing the assignments is essential to succeeding in this course. You are encouraged to keep up with the homework problems and check the answers to the odd-numbered exercises provided in the back of the textbook. These answers are also available in Blackboard by clicking on Course Chapters > Resources > Textbook Appendix B.

2. You have the final responsibility for seeing that you properly withdraw before the scheduled last drop day. Anyone who stops attending class should execute the drop procedure since failure to do so may result in a grade of “F” which cannot be changed.

3. You are requested not to phone or email the ITDS department or the instructor for your final grade in the course. Course grades are available electronically in the week following final-exam week.

The PowerPoint Lectures

1. The PowerPoint Lectures should be used to learn the material. These lecture slides are narrated and animated. Be sure to use the Slide Show feature in PowerPoint and have your computer sound turned on.

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2. The PowerPoint lecture for each chapter is available inside Blackboard Course Content For example, here is the lecture file for Chapter 1.

1DSCI 2710 Course Specific Policies

1. Homework: Homework will be assigned (see page 16) and should be completed when due. Completing the homework is critical to learning the material and completing the exams on time. You are expected to read and understand the relevant sections of the textbook. Note – I will review “where to start” on the homework in class.

NOTES: (1) Part of your grade will consist of the nine chapter post-tests. To take a post-test, while in Blackboard, click on Post-Tests (inside Course Content) and then click on the post-test you wish to take. For more information, see Getting Started #3 (slides 5 – 8). (2) The post-test questions are taken directly from the homework. Since the post-tests are timed, you must complete the homework assignment before taking the post-test. They are timed!

. 2. Excel Assignments: Five exercises (see pages 11 - 13) using Excel are assigned. There will be quizzes on these Exercises to establish your point score. They will be demonstrated in class prior to the quiz. Quizzes are in BBL (Blackboard Learn).

3. Tutorial Exercises: 15 tutorial exercises (see page 14) using the Hawkes Learning modules are assigned. These are an important part of the course grade. The modules will be registered online upon completion. Suggest you print out a “Certification” also.

The lecture file is here

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4. Exams: There will be three exams plus a comprehensive final exam. All exams will be closed book. For each exam, bring a formula sheet, any tables that apply, your student ID and ID number. Old exams to review are noted above.

Point Allocation: Exam #1 200 Exam #2 200

Exam #3 200 (Low exam of #1, #2, #3 will be thrown out) -200

Final exam (cumulative) 200 Online post-tests 100 (*)

Tutorials (Hawkes Learning) 75 (5 points each) Excel assignment quizzes 25 (5 points each) TOTAL 800

(*) The post-test points consist of the percentage of all answers correct, factoring in the late-quiz penalties. For example, if your correct-answer total (after late-quiz penalties) is 85 questions correct out of 100 questions asked, your post-test points are 85.

5. Grade Assignment: ≥ 90% = A ≥ 720 points≥ 80% = B ≥ 640 points≥ 70% = C ≥ 560 points≥ 60% = D ≥ 480 points

Below 60% = F < 480 points

6. A Statistics Lab. is available on campus for students seeking additional help. Hours will be posted on BBL. The purpose of the lab is to assist students to overcome difficulties they may encounter in attempting statistics problems.The lab is located in BLB 131 = Go visit to see where it is located.

Comments regarding the stat lab

1. The statistics lab is not available to aid students in taking post-test quizzes. Also note that the lab is Closed During Final Exam Week

2. (IMPORTANT) The stat lab is especially busy right before exams. There is not enough staff to handle a surge of students and so you may not get the help you need. It is much better to visit the stat lab as homework questions come up and not wait until the last minute.

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DEPARTMENT & COLLEGE POLICIES

1. If you wish to register a complaint, you should first discuss your complaint with me. To further pursue your complaint contact Dr. Al Kvanli (course coordinator) and you can also: contact Dr. Mary Jones; ITDS Department Chair.

2. As a general rule NO MAKE-UP EXAMS will be given; if an emergency occurs - See me3. The University policy on Code of Conduct and Ethics is contained in the Student Guide book. You are responsible for knowing the information contained in this and all other official University publications.

4. Students with Disabilities: The College of Business Administration complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act in making reasonable accommodations for qualified students with disability. If you have an established disability as defined in the "Act" and would like to request accommodation, please see me as soon as possible.

5. Dates of drop deadlines, exams, final exams, etc., are published in the university catalog and schedule of classes. Please be sure you keep informed about these dates.

6. A grade of "I" will not be assigned except in rare circumstances. If you think you will not be able to complete the class satisfactorily, please drop the course. An “I” grade cannot be used to substitute your poor performance in class.

7. If a student is caught cheating, he or she will be immediately removed from the class with a "WF" grade. To be reinstated, the student must provide substantial evidence to the contrary in a hearing held in the Dean of Students Office, University of North Texas.

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DSCI 2710 – 001: SYLLABUS: Spring - 2015The syllabus below is a tentative outline for the semester. It is meant to be a guide and several items are subject to change. Exams may be moved in time & will be announced in class. Certain topics may be stressed more or less as will be indicated in classroom coverage.

Week 1 Topics Sections in TextJan. 20 Introduction to Statistics Chap. 1.1 thru 1.6 Frequency Distributions Chap. 2.1 Hawkes: Obtain access codeJan. 22

Week 2Jan. 27 Descriptive Graphs Chap. 2.2 thru 2.6

Jan. 29 Descriptive Measures Chap. 3.1 thru 3.6

Week 3Feb. 03 Descriptive Measures cont.

Feb. 05 Trend & Seasonal Variation Chap. 4.1 thru 4.9

Week 4Feb. 10 Index Numbers-CPI Chap. 4.10

Feb. 12 REVIEW

Week 5Feb. 17 ** Exam #1 ** Descriptive Statistics and Time Series Ch. 1-4

Feb. 19 Probability Concepts Chap. 5.1 thru 5.4

Week 6Feb. 24 Discrete Prob. Distribution Chap. 6.1 thru 6.2

Feb. 26 Binomial Distribution Chap. 6.3

Week 7Mar. 03 Poisson Distribution Chap. 6.4

Mar.05 REVIEW Week 8

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Mar. 10 *** Exam #2 *** Chapters 5 and 6

Mar. 12 Continuous Prob. Dist. Chap. 7.1 thru 7.4

Week 9 SPRING BREAK: Mar. 16 - 22

Week 10Mar. 24 Continuous Prob. Dist. Chap. 7.1 thru 7.4

Mar. 26 The Normal Curve Chap. 7.5 thru 7.7

Week 11Mar. 31 Inference & Sampling Chap. 8.1 & 8.2 Apr. 02 Confidence Intervals: For the mean (σ known) Chap. 8.3

For the mean (σ unknown) Chap. 8.4

Week 12Apr. 07 Determining Sample Size Chap. 8.5

Apr. 09 REVIEW Week 13Apr. 14 *** Exam #3 *** -- Chapters 7 and 8

Apr. 16 Quality Improvement Chap. 9.1 thru 9.4 Control Charts Chap. 9.5

Week 14Apr. 21 Control Charts for Variables Chap. 9.6

Control Chart Patterns

Apr. 23 Control Charts for Attributes Chap. 9.7

Week 15Apr. 28 Process Capability Chap. 9.8

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Apr. 30 Review of Control Charts

Week 1 May 05 REVIEW for FINAL

May 07 REVIEW for FINALAll Hawkes Modules will close May 08, 2014 @ 11:59 pm.

All Post Tests will close May 12, 2014 @ 11:59 pm.

Week 16May 14 **********FINAL***************

8:00 – 10:00 AM: THURSDAYNote the change of time

In this Classroom BLB 080

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Taking Excel Quizzes

Be sure to go through the PowerPoint slides in Getting Started #6 (see page 2 in this syllabus).

• On the due date for this Excel assignment, or the day before the due date, you need to take the Excel quiz through Blackboard

Notes(1) These quizzes will not open until the scheduled time in the syllabus. Once you click on the Begin button, the clock is running for the assigned time allotted for the quiz. Therefore, get everything you need (e.g., hard copy of the Excel spreadsheets, calculator, textbook) BEFORE opening the quiz.

(2) I will announce in class when the Excel Quizzes are opened, will work them in class and note when they close. Once they are closed; there is no partial credit or further option to take the quiz. See planned schedule and write-ups on the following pages and summary schedule on p. 14.

Click on the quiz you wish to take

The Excel quizzes are here

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Excel Assignments

1Excel #1 --- Due Feb. 08Retrieve the data for problem Exercise 3.77 (page 97) using Data Set

EX3-77.xls from KPK. Ignore the questions in the exercise and answer the following questions.

a. Produce two histograms, using two different class widths b. Do you agree with the statement that number of job orders rarely exceeds 65? Why or why not?

c. Determine the descriptive statistics using Excel'sDATA > Data Analysis > Descriptive Statistics > Summary

Statistics d. Give a reason why the distribution is skewed (if it is) and in which direction. Be sure to use the Pearson measure of skewness, not the Excel measure of skewness.

Excel #2 --- Due Feb. 22Retrieve the data for Exercise 4.50 (page 151) using Data Set EX4-50.xls

from KPK. Ignore the questions and answer the following questions.

a. Using the Excel macros, what are the seasonal indexes and trend line? b. What are the cyclical components for the year 2008? c. What do you observe in the data?

Excel #3 --- Due March 01Use the binomial function to answer the following problems:Suppose a shipment of 400 components contains: 32 defective and 368 non-defective computer components. From the shipment you take a random sample of 25. When sampling with replacement (binomial), determine the probability of obtaining: a. Exactly two defective components in the sample of 25.

b. Two or more defective components in the sample of 25.c. Three or less defective components in the sample of 25.d. Between one and three (inclusive) defective components.e. More than four defective components.

f. What are the mean and variance of this discrete probability distribution?

(continued on next page)

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For the binomial answers, construct the entire sample distribution:

X P(x) 0 0.xxxx 1 0.xxxx 2 0.xxxx . .

. 25 0.xxxx 1.0000

Excel #4 --- Due April 05Refer to Exercise 8.73 (page 323). You can ignore the questions in this exercise.

a. Use data set EX8-73.xls to determine a 90% confidence interval for the mean battery lifetime assuming the population standard deviation is unknown. The Excel macro used here is KPK Data Analysis > One Population Inference.b. Referring to part (a), what is the 80% confidence interval for the mean lifetime?c. Suppose in part (a) that the population standard deviation is believed to be 1.5 hours. Now what is the 90% confidence interval for the mean lifetime? The same macro is used here.

Excel #5 --- Due May 03

Using the data set EX9-69.xls (discussed in Exercise 9.69 on page 383), construct the Xbarchart and R chart. Also, look for patterns in the Xbar chart. Does the process appear to be in control? What are your recommendations?

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DUE DATES[All Hawkes Modules will Close May 10, 2015 @ 11:59 pm]

Hawkes Learning Systems: Business Statistics**Modules Receive Half Credit if Late**

Module Module - Name Due Date 1 1.2 Level of Measurement 01/27 2 3.1 Measures of Center 02/013 3.3 Constructing Samples 02/08Bonus 3.2a Measures of Dispersion 02/104 5.1 Discrete Random Variables 03/015 5.2 The Binomial Distribution 03/01Bonus 4.1 Classical Probability 03/08Bonus 4.3 Counting Rules 03/126 5.3 The Poisson Distribution 03/087 6.2 Reading a Normal Curve Table 03/318 6.4 Find the Value of z 03/319 6.3 The Normal Distribution 04/0210 7.3 Sampling Distributions - Means 04/05Bonus 8.3 Estimating Means: Sigma Known 04/0511 8.4 Estimating Means Sigma Unknown 04/12Bonus 6.5 Find the Value of t 04/1212 13.1 R Charts 04/2613 13.4 Mean Charts using Range 04/2614 13.2 p Charts 05/0515 13.3 c Charts 04/05

EXCEL ASSIGNMENTS ONLINE POST-TESTS **Post Tests Close completely @ 11:59 pm; 05/12

Assignment # Due Date Chapter # Suggested Due Date**

1 02/08 1 01/272 02/22 2 02/013 03/01 3 02/084 04/05 4 02/195 05/03 5 02/22

6 03/057 03/298 04/09Excel Quizzes are taken on line

using your Blackboard Learn to receive credit for your Excel Exercises; by the dates specified above. The dates shown above are the ending dates. Once past the due date; these are unavailable!

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NOTES

● The last nine slides in Getting Started #2 (see page 2 in the syllabus) discuss how to complete the

Hawkes modules.

● After getting a module certified, you should check your Hawkes Progress Report.

● Late certification is accepted but at a 50% penalty.

● No late Hawkes assignments will be counted after May 10 @ 11:59 pm CDT.

Remember: The course ID is UNTBSTAT.See www.hawkeslearning.com or phone HLS at 800-426-9538 for help

Note: If you have an internet connection while completing a module, the Hawkes Learning system should automatically register your module when you successfully complete the CERTIFY phase. Always print out your certifications and keep a file.

Please complete End of Chapter Post Tests on a timely basis. These are available on Blackboard Learn

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Assigned Homework DSCI 2710Prior to the due date, complete the homework problems assigned below. Then log in to Blackboard Learn and complete the chapter post-test located under the “Homework Post Test” button. The post test questions ask about the assigned problems. For instance, the post test might ask what was the solution to question 2? The post tests are timed, so be sure you have completed all of the assigned work before beginning the post test and be sure you have all of the solution material in front of you. The first time you take the post-test, your score will be counted so be sure you are ready when you begin.

Chapter 1Exercises: 1.1 through 1.5, 1.21, 1.25

Chapter 2Exercises: 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 2.8 (a,b,c), 2.10 (a,b,c,d), 2.11 (a,b,c,d), 2.14, 2.15,2.20 (uses a data set), 2.22 (uses a data set), 2.27, 2.29, 2.31, 2.32

Chapter 3Exercises: 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 3.8 (uses a data set), 3.9 (uses a data set), 3.13, 3.15, 3.16, 3.18, 3.24, 3.25, 3.27 (a,b,c,d), 3.28, 3.31 (uses a data set), 3.34, 3.37, 3.38, 3.41, 3.42, 3.44 (uses a data set)

Chapter 4Exercises: 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.12, 4.15 (uses a data set), 4.17, 4.19, 4.21, 4.24, 4.29, 4.30, 4.34 (uses a data set), 4.35, 4.36, 4.39, 4.40, 4.49 (uses a data set), 4.50 (uses a data set), 4.63, 4.64, 4.65, 4.67, 4.68, 4.71

Chapter 5Exercises: 5.1, 5.2, 5.7, 5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13, 5.16, 5.18, 5.22, 5.25, 5.28, 5.29, 5.31

Chapter 6Exercises: 6.1, 6.3, 6.4, 6.6, 6.7, 6.9, 6.11, 6.12, 6.15, 6.20 through 6.24, 6.26, 6.27, 6.30, 6.31, 6.34 through 6.37, 6.39, 6.41, 6.42, 6.45, 6.46, 6.49, 6.50, 6.53

Chapter 7Exercises: 7.1 through 7.8, 7.11 through 7.18, 7.22

Chapter 8Exercises: 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.10 through 8.18, 8.22, 8.23, 8.25, 8.26, 8.27, 8.28, 8.30, 8.34, 8.35, 8.37, 8.39, 8.40, 8.41

Chapter 9Exercises: 9.2 through 9.7, [Chapter 2: 2.34], 9.9, 9.11, 9.15, 9.21, 9.22 (a,b), 9.26, 9.29 (uses a data set), 9.30 (uses a data set), 9.33 through 9.4

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