News and Developments Australian gold production for the 2015-16 year was the highest for 15 years, according to Melbourne gold mining

consultants Surbiton Associates. Macquarie recently upgraded Northern Star and St Barbara from neutral to outperform

and Deutsche Bank upgraded its Alacer Gold recommendation to a "buy". After a few years of incredible consolidation

and movement in the industry, 14 Australasian gold mines and 23 per cent of Australian gold production had changed

hands in little more than two years, things tend to be slightly quieter on that front, though exploration budgets are

looking generous, which is flowing through to the junior explorers. Saracen Minerals has allocated $42 million for

exploration, Goldfields is looking to spend $100 million and Northern Star is pouring up to $90 million into projects.

India’s gold demand will remain high which

accounts for almost a quarter of global demand for

the precious metal, as falling unemployment and

steady inflation spur buying of jewelry, coins and

gold bonds. India which is the world’s second-

largest country by population after China will see its

economy expand at about 8 percent a year through

2021, according to Citi researchers. The country’s

working-age population will increase by 220 million

over the next 20 years, and about 240 million

people will move to cities.

Technical Outlook

On weekly chart, the COMEX Gold prices have been trading in “Rising Channel” pattern from past 8 months and price

has taken support near its upper band of channel pattern at $1315 levels. On weekly chart, COMEX Gold price has given

breakout of its “Falling Channel” pattern $1215 levels with bolstering volumes. On daily chart, MCX Gold price has

shown breakout of “Ascending Triangle” pattern at Rs.31050 levels. Moreover, on weekly time frame, COMEX Gold

prices have been trading above its 200 Weekly exponential moving average, which indicates long term trend is positive.

So any dip in MCX Gold up to Rs.30900 can be used as buying opportunity for the upside target of Rs.32250 levels with

the Stop loss of Rs.30500 levels. On the other hand, MCX Gold momentum indicator RSI has taken support of horizontal

line at 52 levels on a weekly chart, which suggests further bullish momentum can be seen in the prices. Overall, we hold

our bullish view in Gold for the next three months.

27th September, 2016

SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

GOLD

Commodity Insight

News and Developments Fresh spell of rains over the parts of Gujarat has helped

lift kharif sowing in the state to near 100 percent as on

19th September, 2016. The state has received good

rains in parts of Saurashtra, south Gujarat and Central

Gujarat over the past few days. However, the Long

Period Average (LPA) rainfall deficit continues to be

close to 22 percent. The state agriculture department

data showed kharif sowing in the state covering an

area of 85,94,600 hectares as on September 19, about

99.11 per cent of the normal sowing of 86,71,500

hectares. Guar seed witnessed decline in sowing area

by about 41 percent respectively. The State has

received total rainfall of 623.12 mm, which is about 22

per cent deficit from the LPA of 797 mm.

However, the Met department has predicted more rains for the remaining part of the week. “Light to moderate rain or

thunder showers very likely at many places in the districts of Saurashtra and in Diu. At a few places in the districts of

Gujarat region, Daman, Dadra Nagar Haveli and at isolated places in Kutch district,” the IMD forecast till September 24

mornings reading.

Technical Outlook

On weekly chart, NCDEX Guarseed price has completed a “Bearish Anti-Nen Star Harmonic Pattern” at Rs.3980 levels

the coordinates of which are as follow: Technical Parameter: XA of the leg from Rs.4260 to 2912 levels, AB of the leg

completed at Rs.3600 levels (i.e.50% of XA leg), BC of the leg completed at Rs.2931 (i.e.88.60% of AB leg) and CD of the

lag completed at Rs.3980 levels (i.e.78.60% of XA leg and 161.80% Fibonacci Projection of BC leg). The prices have been

facing resistance of its falling trend line at Rs.3980 levels on weekly chart. Moreover, prices have been trading below its

100 Weekly exponential moving average, which suggest medium term trend is weak. As the NCDEX Guarseed looks

negative on charts so every rise in prices till Rs. 3710 should be used as selling opportunity with a stop loss to be kept

around Rs.3900 for the downside target of Rs. 3320. Overall, we hold our bearish view in Guarseed for next three

months.

GUAR SEED

27th September, 2016

SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

Commodity Insight

SPDR Gold ETF Holdings

Crop Calendar

Commodity Country January February March April May June July August September October November December

Guarseed India

Sowing

Growth

Harvesting/Arrivals

Commodity LTP WoW (%) MoM (%) Open Interest (Weekly)

Spot Gold ($/oz) 1334.58 2.06 -3.19 --

Spot Silver ($/oz) 19.45 4.78 -8.21 --

MCX Gold (Rs./10 gms)

31181 1.51 -2.75 -651

MCX Silver (Rs./kg) 46331 3.41 -7.81 -1184

NCDEX Guarseed (Rs./quintal)

3588 -2.10 -7.02 -7610

SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds

Commodity Insight 27th September, 2016

Source: Bloomberg

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Commodity Insight 27th September, 2016

SEBI Registered - Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds