27 april 2007
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State University – Higher School of Economics Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge International Foresight Centre. Energy sector in Russia: trends and prospects. 27 April 2007. Alexander Sokolov. Second BRICS Workshop, Rio de Janeiro. CONTENTS. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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27 April27 April 2007 2007
State University – Higher School of EconomicsInstitute for Statistical Studies and Economics of KnowledgeInternational Foresight Centre
Energy sector in Russia:Energy sector in Russia:trends and prospectstrends and prospects
Alexander Sokolov
Second BRICS Workshop, Rio de Second BRICS Workshop, Rio de JaneiroJaneiro
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CONTENTSCONTENTS
Energy sector in Russia: basic figures and trends
Future challenges
A Foresight Study: Power engineering machine building
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Oil
Russia is the largest oil producer in the non-OPEC countries, and second biggest in the world after Saudi Arabia.12% of the global oil production 2006 - 9.7 mln barrels per day (b/d). (2000 – 6.5 mln) Export – 5 mln b/d of oil, 2 mln b/d of refined products All oil trunk pipelines are owned and operated by the state-owned monopolies
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Major oil producing regions and pipelines
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Crude oil output in Russia 2003-2006,mln barrel a day
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Oil sector performance
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Capital investment by Russian oil companies
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Gas
The world biggest natural gas reserves and producer (21.8% of total).The biggest exporter (24.0% of total). Gazprom (94% of Russia´s natural gas production, 25% of the world´s known gas reserves) has a monopoly for the natural gas pipelines and has exclusive right to export natural gas, granted by the federal law On Gas Export.
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Major gas producing regions and pipelines
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Coal
The world’s leader by 375 billion tonnes of geologic reserves (250 - economically recoverable, including 140 billion tonnes of lignite). The seventh largest coal producer in the world (3.8% of total), and the third largest exporter (9.9% of total)
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Major coal reserves
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Nuclear energy
Nuclear energy supply in Russia counted 137 TWh (16% of total Russian electricity output and 5% of global nuclear energy production). Total installed capacity of nuclear reactors is 21,244 MWh. There are plans to increase the number of commercial reactors from 31 to 51.All civil nuclear industry is operated by a holding company Atomprom.
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Major nuclear power plants
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Share of nuclear power in total electricity
Source: OECD
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Thermal and Hydro Energy
The world fourth largest electricity producer after the USA, China, and Japan. In 2004, Russia produced 930 TWh and exported 20 TWh of electricity. 63% - thermal plants, 21% - hydropower, 16% -nuclear reactors.Russian energy market is dominated by the Unified Energy System. While production and sale will be opened up to competition, transmission and distribution remain under state control
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Major Thermal and Hydro Power Plants
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Structural reforms - UES
72 regional companies + 32 federal power plants
Network companies (state owned)
Generating companies (private)
Distributing companies (state owned)
7 large exterritorial generating companies + 14 regional ones
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Recent trends and future Recent trends and future challengeschallenges
Fast growth of electricity consumption (5-7% a year)
Increasing domestic gas prices (now – 4 times lower)
Liberalisation of electricity market (2007 – 10%, 2008 – 25%, 2009 – 50%, 2010 – 80%, 2011 – 100%)
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Recent trends and future Recent trends and future challengeschallenges
Investment programmes
Unified Energy System:
23 TW by 2010
100 TW by 2015
83 bln USD in 2007-2011
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2020
Challenges for domestic Challenges for domestic producers of energy-related producers of energy-related
equipmentequipment
Huge investment expected, but:
Currently up to 50% of production capacities are conserved
Highly deteriorated production facilities (up to 50% of fixed assets, 75% of equipments and machines, 90% of testing equipment)
Lack of skilled engineers and workers
Age gap in researchers population
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Challenges for domestic Challenges for domestic producers of energy-related producers of energy-related
equipmentequipment
Competition at global markets
More open domestic markets
Diversification of fuels used and shift from gas to other fuels
Demand for energy saving and other modern technologies
Energy networks development
Joining WTO
Kyoto protocol
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R&D and innovation prioritiesR&D and innovation priorities
National socio-economic priorities
Critical technologies
Sectoral strategies
Sector specific S&T priorities
National S&T priorities
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Identification of national S&T Identification of national S&T prioritiespriorities
Livigsystems
Nanosystems andmaterial
ICT
Critical technologies
Economic growth, technology safety
Transport, aviationand spaceEnergyRational use
of nature
Critical technologies
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National critical technologies: National critical technologies: EnergyEnergy
Technologies of nuclear power engineering, nuclear fuel cycle, safe use of nuclear waste and used nuclear fuel
Hydrogen power engineering
New and renewable sources of energy
Energy production from organic raw materials
Energy saving systems for transportation, distribution and utilisation of heat and electricity
Technologies for development of energy efficient engines for transportation systems
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Foresight – a technology roadmap Foresight – a technology roadmap for power engineering machine for power engineering machine
buildingbuilding
Building a model in a form of a road map leading step-by-step to a preset targets (via intermediate targets)
Normative method: from the future to the present
Consensus on milestones for measures and events
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Technology roadmap: major Technology roadmap: major goalsgoals
To extract expert knowledge
To build a consensus on future visions
To involve businesses and government
To promote R&D and innovation
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Technology roadmap: major Technology roadmap: major modulesmodules
1. Targeting, scaling2. Planning of workshops, selection of experts3. Workshops4. Discussion, dissemination and utilisation of results
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Technology roadmapTechnology roadmap:: standard standard approachapproach
Market Challenges, external factors, emerging markets, products and services
Products Major characteristics, impact on the market. Alternative productsTechnologie
sAlternative technologies, impact on products. Streamlining parameters for technologies and products
Visualisation
Integration of market-product-technology chains
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Technology RoadmapTechnology Roadmap : :power engineering machine power engineering machine
buildingbuildingMarkets
Products/services
Technologies
Challenges
2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Resources
Key components
Limitations
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Sources of information
Analysis of trends in the energy sector Forecast of energy consumption and production facilities (demand)Analysis of capacities of power engineering machine building (supply)•Equipment and technologies•Human resourcesEquipment for the futureMaterials, technologies and R&D for the future
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Power engineering machine building: the sector’s specific features
Concentration in few big companies
Separate R&D institutes
Traditional orientation towards foreign markets (mostly in developing countries incl. BrICS)
Strong presence of the state
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Power engineering machine building: identification of innovation priorities
Trends analysis
Major challenges
Future markets
Innovation priorities
Technological prioritiesSector specific vs National critical technologies
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Major factorsMajor factors
Oil and gas prices
National energy balance (till 2030)
Lack of clear government policies
Deterioration of construction capacities
Human resources
Lack of standards
Explicit demand from business and government
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Major trends: Domestic markets
Demand for electricity – growth 20-35% by 2010; 40-80% by 2020
Increasing production facilitiesReplacing obsolete equipmentModernisation of fixed assets on the basis of new technologies for energy and heat productionR&D and new technologiesCompetition at domestic markets with foreign companies “General Electric”, “ABB”, “Siemens”, “Westinghouse” et al.
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Major trends: World markets
Competition with foreign companies at traditional markets (CIS, Asia) Regaining positions at world markets of equipment for thermal and hydro power plants; increasing exports of hydro turbines Increasing exports of equipment for foreign nuclear plants Development of prospective materials, technologies and equipmentDevelopment of export oriented production facilitiesIntegration with foreign companies New policies for foreign markets Key-turn schemes of products sales, services “construction-ownership-exploitation”
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Most important market segment and products
Market segments Products
Coal power plants with circulating boiling layer
Steam boiler with circulating boiling layer
Coal power plants with super critical steam parameters
Steam-gas power equipment
450 MWh
540 MWh
Gas turbines
Inter-cycle gasification of coal
Water-water power reactors – 1200, 1500-1750
Turbogenerators
Gas turbines
Steam generators
Containers for transportation and storage of nuclear fuel
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Most important market segment and productsMarket segments ProductsFast neutrons reactor 1800 Steam generators
Turbine island
Hydro power generation Hydraulic turbine
Hydro generator
Hydroaccumulation power plants
High power diesel power plants
Tide power plant
Low scale power generation (up to 50 MWt)
Gas piston engines
Geothermal plants
Gas turbines
Steam turbines
Power generation from non-conventional (local) fuels
Wind power generation
Waste processing power plants
Low scale nuclear power station
Hydrogen fuel elements
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Most important market segment and products
Market segments ProductsFloating nuclear power plants
Control equipment, decreasing lost of energy
CAD/CAM, CALS
Diagnostics systems
Boiler utilisators
Turbines
Generators
Critical construction materials
Nickel alloys for gas turbines
Chrome steels for steam pipelines
Rotors for gas turbines
Welding materials
Fuel elements
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National vs sectoral critical National vs sectoral critical technologiestechnologies
Technologies of nuclear power engineering, nuclear fuel cycle, safe use of nuclear waste and used nuclear fuel
Hydrogen power engineering
New and renewable sources of energy
Energy production from organic raw materials
Energy saving systems for transportation, distribution and utilisation of heat and electricity
Technologies for development of energy efficient engines for transportation systems
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Follow up: a national Follow up: a national Foresight programmeForesight programme
Expert assessment of strategic Expert assessment of strategic prospects of innovation developmentprospects of innovation development,, identification identification of potential of potential technological breakthroughs with a technological breakthroughs with a maximal impact on economy and maximal impact on economy and society in the mid and long termsociety in the mid and long term
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Russian ForesightRussian Foresight
Measures to promote S&T and innovation
development in priority areas
Basic research
Breakthrough technologies
Innovation products and services
New markets
S&T and innovation capacities of Russia,
competitive strengths and weaknesses
Trends of global trends of innovation
development
Analysis of major national socio-
economic problems up to 2030
S&T&I for priorities
implementation
System of national priorities
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Implications for BRICS countries
Comparison of national S&T and innovation priorities: indicators, strengths and weaknesses, policies
An international Foresight study on priorities for co-operation
Coordination of cooperation policies