24 april 2017 metals weekly - business...

BSE Metals Index v/s Sensex

Source: Bloomberg Note: Indexed to 100 on 20 March 2017 Stock performance table on pg 26

WSA upgrades world steel demand forecast by 80bps for 2017 Global demand forecast is revised upward to 1.3% for 2017. China’s demand would be flat at 681mt (v/s. -2% estimated earlier). RoW demand is cut by 20bps to 2.4% growth for 2017. Global demand would grow by 0.9% in 2018, but would decline by 2% to 667mt in China. Unless managed by supply actions, rising exports from China could once again hurt prices globally. Indian steel: Long product (TMT Mumbai) prices were down ~4% WoW.

Sponge iron prices were down 5% WoW, while domestic scrap prices weredown ~4% WoW. Domestic iron ore were unchanged, while pellet wasmarginally lower. Domestic HRC prices were unchanged.

Raw Materials: Iron ore prices (China cfr) were down ~1% WoW. Thermalcoal prices were unchanged. Coking coal corrected by ~16% WoW onlikelihood of easing supply.

Europe: HRC prices were down ~2% WoW. CIS export HRC prices were up1% WoW. Rotterdam scrap prices were down ~6% WoW.

China: local HRC prices declined ~3% WoW but rebar rose ~1% WoW.Export prices were unchanged.

Base metals: Aluminum (cash LME) was up 2% WoW. Alumina prices wereunchanged. Zinc (cash LME) was up ~1% WoW while lead was down ~5%WoW. Copper was down ~1% WoW. Crude oil (Brent) prices were down~7% WoW.

Sanjay Jain ([email protected]); +91 22 3982 5412 / Dhruv Muchhal ([email protected])

STEE

L M

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LICS

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Metals Weekly 24 April 2017

Investors are advised to refer through important disclosures made at the last page of the Research Report.

24 April 2017 2

Metals Weekly

Contents

Page No. Ferrous 3-10 India 3,4 & 5 European Union 6 China 7 Other regions 8 & 9 Steel raw material 10 & 11 Ferro alloys 12 Non-ferrous 13-20 Aluminum 13 Copper 15 Zinc 16 Lead 17 Crude Oil 18 Commodity curve analysis 19 China non-ferrous trade data 20 Key indicators 21-22 Industrial production growth across the globe 23 BSE announcements 24 Metals valuation matrix 25 Metals stock performance 26

24 April 2017 3

Metals Weekly

Ferrous INDIA Indian flat domestic steel prices (INR/T, excl. ED & VAT)

24,00027,00030,00033,00036,00039,00042,000

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

HRC

Mum

bai (

INR/

t)

Spot Quaterly average

Avg. i s down INR1111 QoQ

Indian long steel price (INR/T, exl. ED & VAT)

23,500

26,000

28,500

31,000

33,500

36,000

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

TMT

Mum

bai (

INR/

t) Spot Quaterly average

Avg. i s up INR2287 QoQ

Sponge iron (made from lumps) prices (INR/T, excl. ED & VAT)

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Coal based Sponge (Raipur)

India: Integrated steel mills spreads (Import parity HRC – 1xcoking coal)

15,000

19,000

23,000

27,000

31,000

35,000

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

Indian integrated steel mills spreads (INR/t)

Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOSL

Domestic HRC prices were unchanged at INR37,333/t.

Long products (TMT Mumbai) prices were

down 3.9% WoW to INR32,000/t.

Sponge iron prices were down 5.5% WoW to

INR17,200/t.

Ferrous

24 April 2017 4

Metals Weekly

Ferrous

INDIA

Scrap Mandi (INR/t)

16,000

18,500

21,000

23,500

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Scrap (Mandi)

Iron ore lumps (INR/t)

1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Lumps 5-18 (Odisha) NMDC 6-40mm (CG)

Iron ore fines (INR/t) ex mine

1,300

1,700

2,100

2,500

2,900

Apr-

15M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5De

c-15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Rungta Fines 63% (Odisha, incl. royalty) NMDC Fines, ex-royalty

Pellet (Barbil) INR/t

2,800

3,300

3,800

4,300

4,800

5,300

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Pellet (Barbil)

Source: SteelMint, WSA, MOSL

Ferrous

Pellet prices were at INR4,750/t.

Domestic scrap prices were down 4.4% WoW to

INR21,700/t.

Iron ore lump prices were unchanged.

Iron ore fines prices were unchanged.

24 April 2017 5

Metals Weekly

India Monthly steel trends

Steel consumption (mt) and growth (trailing 12-month) YoY %

5.6 6.

9 6.

1 5.

7 6.7

5.9

5.9

5.1 6.

5 6.

3 6.

3 6.9

5.1 6.

9 6.

7 6.

2 6.7

5.9 6.

6 5.

4 6.6

6.7

6.5 7.2

5.5 7.

3 7.

1 6.

6 6.9

6.3 7.

2 5.

9 6.9

7.0

7.1 7.8

5.8 7.

4 6.

8 6.

6 7.3

6.7 7.1

6.2 7.

3 7.

4 7.

3 8.0

2.8

-2.00.02.04.06.08.0

10.0

Apr-

13Ju

n-13

Aug-

13O

ct-1

3De

c-13

Feb-

14Ap

r-14

Jun-

14Au

g-14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14Fe

b-15

Apr-

15Ju

n-15

Aug-

15O

ct-1

5De

c-15

Feb-

16Ap

r-16

Jun-

16Au

g-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16Fe

b-17

Cons. (mt) Trailing 12m Growth (%)

Steel imports and exports - kt

355 475 825

-821 -1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

Feb-

12Ap

r-12

Jun-

12Au

g-12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12Fe

b-13

Apr-

13Ju

n-13

Aug-

13O

ct-1

3De

c-13

Feb-

14Ap

r-14

Jun-

14Au

g-14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14Fe

b-15

Apr-

15Ju

n-15

Aug-

15O

ct-1

5De

c-15

Feb-

16Ap

r-16

Jun-

16Au

g-16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16Fe

b-17

Net steel imports (kt)

Scrap imports - kt

Crude steel production - kt

6.7

6.5

6.6 6.9 7.0

6.5 7.

2 7.

3 7.

2 7.4 7.6

7.5

7.4

7.2

7.2 7.5

7.5

7.2 7.

8 7.

5 7.7

7.5

7.5

7.4

7.3

7.4

7.2

7.3 7.5

7.5 8.

3 7.

4 8.0

8.1

8.1

8.2

8.0 8.3

7.7 8.

2

8.1 8.3

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

Crude steel production - mt

Source: JPC

470

443 484

368

404 448

464

397

406 51

7 52

2 48

1 50

6 35

2 420 465 53

4 677

510

524 66

2 63

8 54

9 48

2 30

8 32

6 27

1 29

1 30

3

Jul-1

4

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Scrap imports - kt

Crude steel production was down 0.5% YoY

to 8.3mt in March.

India steel demand grew 2.2% YoY to 7.9mt in

March 2017.

Exports grew by 114% to 1.6mt in March 2017.

Import of ferrous scrap was down 43% YoY to

303kt in November 2016.

24 April 2017 6

Metals Weekly

European Union European HRC prices (EUR/ton)

270

330

390

450

510

570

Apr-

15M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5De

c-15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

North Europe HRC South Europe HRC

Shredded scrap prices (USD/t) fob Rotterdam

155

195

235

275

315

355

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15Se

p-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

European wire rods southern region (Euro/t)

300

340

380

420

460

500

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Spreads ( HRC-1.6xiron ore-0.7xcoking coal) – (USD/t)

120

175

230

285

340

395

Jun-

12Au

g-12

Oct

-12

Dec-

12Ja

n-13

Mar

-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3Se

p-13

Oct

-13

Dec-

13Fe

b-14

Apr-

14Ju

n-14

Aug-

14Se

p-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15M

ar-1

5M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Aug-

15O

ct-1

5De

c-15

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6M

ay-1

6Ju

l-16

Sep-

16N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Feb-

17Ap

r-17

EU China

Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, WSA, MOSL

EU HRC steel prices were down 2.5% WoW to

EUR503/t.

Rotterdam scrap prices were down 6% WoW to

USD244/t.

South Europe wire rod

prices were unchanged.

EU steel mills spreads were lower on increase in

coking coal prices.

24 April 2017 7

Metals Weekly

China China domestic prices (USD/ton)

230

300

370

440

510

580

Mar

-15

Apr-

15M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5De

c-15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

HRC Rebar

Steel spreads (Steel price – 1.6x iron ore – 0.55x coke) for Chinese producers

90

135

180

225

270

315

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

HRC Rebar

Steel trade (m ton)

02468

1012

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Exports Imports

Steel inventories in main China cities (m tons)

3

4

5

6

7

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Chinese local HRC steel price was down 3% WoW

to USD437/t, rebar managed a 1.4% WoW increase to USD495/t.

Chinese steel product spreads were lower on decline in steel prices.

Chinese steel exports were down 30% YoY to 5.4mt in

February 2017.

Steel inventories in China declined WoW.

24 April 2017 8

Metals Weekly

Other regions

CIS HRC export prices (USD/ton) fob basis

250300350400450500

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

CIS Exports (HRC)

Turkish export billets (USD/ton)

290

340

390

440

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Turkish Exp Billets

North America HRC prices (USD/ton)

420

470

520

570

620

670

May

-16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Mar

-17

CIS: Monthly crude steel production

-15-10-5051015

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

YoY

(%)

(m to

ns)

CIS YoY (%)

Source: Metal Bulletin, WSA, Bloomberg, MOSL

CIS export HRC prices were up 1.1% WoW to

USD455/t.

US HRC prices were lower WoW.

CIS countries daily crude

steel production increased ~3% YoY to 8.07mt in

February 2017.

24 April 2017 9

Metals Weekly

Other regions North America: Monthly crude steel production

-15.0

-7.5

0.0

7.5

15.0

8.0 8.5 9.0 9.5

10.0 10.5 11.0

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

YoY

(%)

(m to

ns)

North America YoY (%)

Global: Monthly crude steel production

-8-6-4-202468

120

125

130

135

140

145

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

YoY

(%)

(m to

ns)

Global YoY (%)

Global: Monthly crude steel capacity utilization

62

66

70

74

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

Capacity Utilization

Source: Bloomberg, WSA, MOSL

US daily steel production grew ~3% YoY to ~9mt in

February 2017.

Global daily crude steel production grew ~7% YoY

to 127mt in February 2017.

Capacity utilization increased 360bps YoY to 70.3% in

February 2017.

24 April 2017 10

Metals Weekly

Steel raw materials

Import price of 62% grade iron-ore fines in China (USD/ton)

30

45

60

75

90

105

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

CIF FOB

OTC iron-ore swaps (USD/ton)

30405060708090

20-A

ug-1

627

-Aug

-16

3-Se

p-16

10-S

ep-1

617

-Sep

-16

24-S

ep-1

61-

Oct

-16

8-O

ct-1

615

-Oct

-16

22-O

ct-1

629

-Oct

-16

5-N

ov-1

612

-Nov

-16

19-N

ov-1

626

-Nov

-16

3-De

c-16

10-D

ec-1

617

-Dec

-16

24-D

ec-1

631

-Dec

-16

7-Ja

n-17

14-J

an-1

721

-Jan

-17

28-J

an-1

74-

Feb-

1711

-Feb

-17

18-F

eb-1

725

-Feb

-17

4-M

ar-1

711

-Mar

-17

18-M

ar-1

725

-Mar

-17

1-Ap

r-17

8-Ap

r-17

15-A

pr-1

7

2017 2Q17 1Q17

China iron-ore production and imports (m tons)

44

52

60

68

76

30

55

80

105

130

155

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

Ore Imports Ore Prod Pig iron prod (RHS)

China’s iron-ore inventories (mt)

60708090

100110120130140

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Apr-

17

Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, MOSL

Iron ore (China cfr) prices

were down 1% WoW to USD68/t.

China iron ore inventories were marginally lower

WoW.

China iron ore imports

increased ~14% YoY to 83.4mt in February

2017.

24 April 2017 11

Metals Weekly

Steel raw materials Freight rates to China (USD/ton)

0

8

16

24

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Brazil Australia India

Coal price index

45

60

75

90

105

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6

Apr-

16M

ay-1

6

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug-

16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17M

ar-1

7

Apr-

17

Ri chards Bay Steam Coal

Coke price index (fob China)

130 155 180 205 230 255 280

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15Se

p-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug-

16Se

p-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16Ja

n-17

Feb-

17M

ar-1

7Ap

r-17

USD

/t

China coke export spot (LHS)

Coking coal (USD/t)

70

120

170

220

270

320

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17M

ar-1

7

Apr-

17

Spot coking coal (fob Australia)

Coking coal prices were down 16% WoW to USD

263/t.

Richards Bay thermal coal prices were up to USD79/t.

Freight rates were unchanged WoW.

24 April 2017 12

Metals Weekly

Ferro alloys China’s imports of manganese ore and concentrate

5090130170210250

500

800

1,100

1,400

1,700

2,000

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

USD

/t

'000

tons

Imports Prices (RHS)

Chrome ore FOB spot prices

70120170220270320370420

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

USD

/ton

40% Chrome Africa

Ferro chrome CIF prices (CNY/t)

4,500

6,000

7,500

9,000

10,500

12,000

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16Se

p-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Fe Chrome 50% Cr China Fe Chrome 63% Cr Pittursburgh

Silico Manganese prices

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

Feb-

15M

ar-1

5Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15Se

p-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug-

16Se

p-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16Ja

n-17

Feb-

17M

ar-1

7Ap

r-17

USD

/lb

Silico Manganese in warehouses in Pittsburg USA


24 April 2017 13

Metals Weekly

Non-ferrous

Aluminum LME inventories and spot prices

1.3

1.9

2.5

1,400

1,550

1,700

1,850

2,000

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

m to

ns

USD

/t

Inventories (RHS) Spot

Global primary aluminum monthly production and YoY growth

-13.0-8.0-3.02.07.012.017.022.0

3,000

3,600

4,200

4,800

5,400

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

YoY

grow

th (%

)

'000

tons

Production YoY

Aluminum: SHFE Vs LME arbitrage (USD/T)

-470-370-270-170

-7030

130230

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

India: Company-wise primary aluminum monthly production

35

3

5

32

3

5

34

3

5

34

3

5

35

3

3

35

3

5

32

3

5

33

3

4

33

3

4

35

3

3

35

3

4

35

3

5

31

26

2

9

27

2

8

27

2

7

28

2

7

28

2

7

28

2

8

27

2

8

27

2

9

32

3

7

43

3

7

35

3

4

35

3

8

36

26

2

9

28

2

9

29

3

2

32

3

1

32

3

1

32

3

3

31

3

3

31

3

3

31

3

2

30

3

1

32

3

2

34

3

5

31

46

4

5

41

4

5

42

4

4

42

4

4

44

4

3

44

4

6

41

3

8

42

4

5

43

4

5

44

4

4

45

4

3

44

4

4

41

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

'000

tons

Hindalco Balco Nalco VED - JSG

Non-ferrous

Aluminum (cash LME) was

up 2% WoW to USD1,933/t.

LME and SHFE arbitrage is unfavorable.

Global aluminum production increased by

10% YoY to 4.83mt in February 2017.

24 April 2017 14

Metals Weekly

Non-ferrous

Aluminum Aluminum raw material and power cost for marginal producer in USA (USD/t)

0

800

1,600

2,400

3,200

May

-12

Aug-

12O

ct-1

2De

c-12

Mar

-13

May

-13

Aug-

13O

ct-1

3Ja

n-14

Mar

-14

Jun-

14Au

g-14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15Ap

r-15

Jun-

15Au

g-15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jun-

16Se

p-16

Nov

-16

Feb-

17Ap

r-17

CPC Alumina Power LME+Spot

CPC US (USD/t)

200

300

400

500

600

Jan-

12

Apr-

12

Jul-1

2

Oct

-12

Jan-

13

Apr-

13

Jul-1

3

Oct

-13

Jan-

14

Apr-

14

Jul-1

4

Oct

-14

Jan-

15

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

Apr-

16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

Alumina (USD/t)

190

240

290

340

390

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Apr-

13

Aug-

13

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

Jun-

15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

Industrial Power US (Lousiana) per mwh

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Jan-

12

May

-12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Apr-

13

Aug-

13

Nov

-13

Mar

-14

Jul-1

4

Nov

-14

Feb-

15

Jun-

15

Oct

-15

Jan-

16

May

-16

Sep-

16

Jan-

17

Apr-

17

Source: Metal Bulletin, Bloomberg, Industry, MOSL

All-in-aluminum was at USD2,144/t.

Alumina was unchanged at

USD309/t.

24 April 2017 15

Metals Weekly

Non-ferrous

Copper LME inventories and prices

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

4,250

4,850

5,450

6,050

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

m to

ns

USD

/t


Global refined copper monthly production and YoY growth

-4.0

1.0

6.0

11.0

16.0

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

YoY

grow

th (%

)

m to

ns

Production YoY - RHS

China: Refined copper monthly production and YoY growth

-10

1

12

23

34

0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90

Feb-

14

Apr-

14

Jun-

14

Aug-

14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

YoY

grow

th (%

)

m to

ns


Copper: Spot TCRC (USc/lb)

18.0

21.0

24.0

27.0

30.0

33.0

Sep-

13

Nov

-13

Jan-

14

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4

Sep-

14

Nov

-14

Jan-

15

Mar

-15

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Nov

-15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

Copper (cash LME) prices were down 1.0% WoW to

USD5,601/t

Global copper production

was up 1.9% YoY to 1.89mt in February 2017.

24 April 2017 16

Metals Weekly

Non-ferrous

Zinc LME inventories and prices

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1,450

1,750

2,050

2,350

2,650

2,950

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

m to

ns

USD

/t


Global refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth

-10.0

-4.0

2.0

8.0

14.0

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.3

Mar

-15

Apr-

15M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5De

c-15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

YoY

grow

th (%

)

m to

ns

Production YoY growth (RHS)

China: Refined zinc monthly production and YoY growth

-22

-2

19

40

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.6

Feb-

14

Apr-

14

Jun-

14

Aug-

14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

YoY

grow

th (%

)

m to

ns

Production YoY growth (RHS)

Zinc: Global metal surplus (deficit) – kt

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

Aug-

12O

ct-1

2De

c-12

Feb-

13Ap

r-13

Jun-

13Au

g-13

Oct

-13

Dec-

13Fe

b-14

Apr-

14Ju

n-14

Aug-

14O

ct-1

4De

c-14

Feb-

15Ap

r-15

Jun-

15Au

g-15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15Fe

b-16

Apr-

16Ju

n-16

Aug-

16O

ct-1

6De

c-16<-

-def

icit

(k

t)

sur

plus

-->

Zinc (cash LME) was up

~1% USD2,582/t

Global zinc production was up 6.5% YoY to 1.134mt in

January 2017.

24 April 2017 17

Metals Weekly

Non-ferrous

Lead LME inventories and prices

0.10 0.13 0.15 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.25

1,550

1,750

1,950

2,150

2,350

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

m to

ns

USD

/t


Global refined lead monthly production and YoY growth

-18

-8

2

12

22

0.60.70.80.91.01.11.21.3

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

YoY

grow

th (%

)

m to

ns


China: Refined lead monthly production and YoY growth

-20

0

20

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Jan-

14Fe

b-14

Mar

-14

Apr-

14M

ay-1

4Ju

n-14

Jul-1

4Au

g-14

Sep-

14O

ct-1

4N

ov-1

4De

c-14

Jan-

15Fe

b-15

Mar

-15

Apr-

15M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5De

c-15

YoY

grow

th (%

)

m to

ns


:

India: Company-wise refined lead monthly production

9 12

9 9 13 13 13 14 13 14

11 14

12 13 9

6 10

6 10 9

12 14 13 15 14

Feb-

15M

ar-1

5Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15Se

p-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug-

16Se

p-16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16Ja

n-17

Feb-

17

HZL


Lead (cash LME) was down 5% WoW to USD2,142/t.

Refined lead production increased 7% YoY to 921kt

in February 2017.

24 April 2017 18

Metals Weekly

Crude Oil

Brent crude oil price (USD/bbl)

25.0 35.0 45.0 55.0 65.0 75.0

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

Brent Crude

Global crude oil quarterly supply (mbpd)

52.0 51.4 51.6 52.9 52.7 53.1 53.9 54.8 54.9 55.7 56.3 57.6 58.1 58.2 58.6 58.8 58.0 57.0 57.4 58.3

38.6 39.1 38.9 38.2 37.7 38.2 37.9 37.1 37.3 37.5 38.0 38.0 37.1 38.2 38.6 38.6 38.7 39.0 39.5 40.0

90.6 90.5 90.5 91.1 90.4 91.3 91.8 91.9 92.2 93.2 94.3 95.6 95.2 96.4 97.2 97.4 96.7 96.0 96.9 98.3

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

Non-OPEC supply OPEC Supply

Global crude oil surplus/(deficit) - mbpd

1.3 0.8

(0.6) (0.9)

(0.4) (0.2) (0.9)

(1.2)

(0.3)

0.7 0.8 1.4 1.4

2.0 1.2

1.7 1.3

0.1

(0.2)

0.4

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

3Q14

4Q14

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

surplus/(deficit)

:

Crude oil futures (USD/bbl)

50

55

60

06/2

017

10/2

017

02/2

018

06/2

018

10/2

018

02/2

019

06/2

019

10/2

019

02/2

020

06/2

020

10/2

020

02/2

021

06/2

021

10/2

021

02/2

022

Current 1-week ago 3-month ago


Brent (crude oil) was down 7% WoW to

USD52.2/bbl.

24 April 2017 19

Metals Weekly

Commodity forward curves LME aluminum (USD/ton)

1,650

1,800

1,950

2,100

06/2

017

10/2

017

02/2

018

06/2

018

10/2

018

02/2

019

06/2

019

10/2

019

02/2

020

06/2

020

10/2

020

02/2

021

06/2

021

10/2

021

02/2

022


LME copper (USD/ton)

5,400 5,500 5,600 5,700 5,800 5,900 6,000

06/2

017

10/2

017

02/2

018

06/2

018

10/2

018

02/2

019

06/2

019

10/2

019

02/2

020

06/2

020

10/2

020

02/2

021

06/2

021

10/2

021

02/2

022


LME zinc futures (USD/ton)

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

3,000

06/2

017

10/2

017

02/2

018

06/2

018

10/2

018

02/2

019

06/2

019

10/2

019

02/2

020

06/2

020

10/2

020

02/2

021

06/2

021

10/2

021

02/2

022


Base metals US spot premium (USD/ton)

40 115 190 265 340 415 490 565

Nov

-10

Feb-

11Ap

r-11

Jul-1

1Se

p-11

Nov

-11

Feb-

12Ap

r-12

Jul-1

2Se

p-12

Dec-

12Fe

b-13

May

-13

Jul-1

3O

ct-1

3De

c-13

Mar

-14

May

-14

Jul-1

4O

ct-1

4De

c-14

Mar

-15

May

-15

Aug-

15O

ct-1

5Ja

n-16

Mar

-16

Jun-

16Au

g-16

Nov

-16

Jan-

17Ap

r-17

Aluminium Zinc Copper


24 April 2017 20

Metals Weekly

China non-ferrous trade data

China’s aluminum trade ('000 tons)

0100200300400500600

May

-15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Imports Exports

China’s refined copper trade ('000 tons)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

Imports Exports

China’s refined zinc trade ('000 tons)

0

25

50

75

100

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Export Import

China’s alumina imports ('000 tons)

0

200

400

600

800

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17


Aluminum exports were

down 2% YoY to 410kt in March 2017.

Chinese alumina imports increased 17% YoY to 420kt in March 2017.

24 April 2017 21

Metals Weekly

Key indicators China new loan growth (Yuan b)

300 600 900

1,200 1,500 1,800 2,100 2,400

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

China: PMI

35

41

47

53

59

46

48

50

52

54

Jun-

15Ju

l-15

Aug-

15Se

p-15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15Ja

n-16

Feb-

16M

ar-1

6M

ar-1

6Ap

r-16

May

-16

Jun-

16Ju

l-16

Aug-

16Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Dec-

16Ja

n-17

Feb-

17M

ar-1

7

Stee

l PM

I

Mfg

PM

I

Mfg PMI Steel PMI

China: Fixed asset investment growth (%)

7 9

11 13 15 17 19 21

Mar

-15

Apr-

15M

ay-1

5Ju

n-15

Jul-1

5Au

g-15

Sep-

15O

ct-1

5N

ov-1

5De

c-15

Jan-

16Fe

b-16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16M

ay-1

6Ju

n-16

Jul-1

6Au

g-16

Sep-

16O

ct-1

6N

ov-1

6De

c-16

Jan-

17Fe

b-17

Mar

-17

Currency movement with respect to the rupee

65

74

83

92

101

110

51

55

59

63

67

71

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-

17

INR

INR

USD (LHS) GBP EURO

Source: Bloomberg, MOSL

Fixed asset investment

growth was at 9.1% YoY in March.

24 April 2017 22

Metals Weekly

Key indicators (Contd...) China Energy Production: Electricity (b kwh)

-13

2

17

32

200

270

340

410

480

550

Feb-

14

Apr-

14

Jun-

14

Aug-

14

Oct

-14

Dec-

14

Feb-

15

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Aug-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Aug-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Feb-

17

Electricity YoY (%, RHS)

China Monthly Trade YoY (%)

-30

-10

10

30

50

Apr-

15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Feb-

16

May

-16

Jul-1

6

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17

Import Export

China Price Index YoY (%)

-7

-4

-1

2

5

8

Apr-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

PPI CPI

China GDP YoY (%)

6.5

6.8

7.1

7.4

7.7

8.0

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

Mar

-17


China’s GDP growth was

6.9% in 4QCY16.

China electricity

generation increased 8% YoY in March 2017.

24 April 2017 23

Metals Weekly

Industrial production growth The UK and the USA (%)

-6

-3

0

3

6

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

UK USA

Japan (%)

-10

-5

0

5

10

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

European Union (%)

-10

-4

2

8

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

France Germany Italy

BRIC (%)

-15

-8

-1

6

13

Mar

-15

Apr-

15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-1

5

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct

-15

Nov

-15

Dec-

15

Jan-

16

Feb-

16

Mar

-16

Apr-

16

May

-16

Jun-

16

Jul-1

6

Aug-

16

Sep-

16

Oct

-16

Nov

-16

Dec-

16

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Russia Brazil India China


24 April 2017 24

Metals Weekly

Stock exchange announcements Tata Steel: The Board of Directors have approved issue of debt securities of up to INR90b for refinancing of existing loans, capex/working capital and general corporate purposes. Vedanta: (a) Aluminum: It has a pot outage at 228 pots of the total 608 pots at its 500ktpa plant-1 smelter at Jharsuguda. The impacted pots would be repaired over the next few months. (b) Talwandi Saboo: A fire incident at the coal handling plant has resulted in shutdown of all the three units of the plant for around 60 days.

24 April 2017 25

Metals Weekly

Price(INR) FY17E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E FY18E FY19E

SteelTata Steel Sel l 451 6,792 18.9 39.4 45.7 11.5 9.9 7.3 6.6 2.9 2.4JSW Steel Buy 188 7,028 13.6 18.3 20.5 10.3 9.1 6.5 5.6 1.8 1.5JSPL Buy 112 1,589 -22.3 -17.5 -2.2 -6.4 -50.7 9.5 6.6 0.3 0.3SAIL Sel l 60 3,865 -7.4 -12.6 0.4 -4.8 161.8 58.1 10.3 0.8 0.8

Non-FerrousHindalco Buy 188 6,008 16.9 22.6 25.4 8.3 7.4 6.0 5.3 1.3 1.1Nalco Buy 67 2,674 3.9 5.3 5.8 12.5 11.5 5.0 4.4 1.2 1.1Vedanta Neutra l 232 10,683 17.6 28.1 31.3 8.3 7.4 5.3 5.3 1.2 1.1

MiningCoal India Buy 277 27,150 16.7 20.1 22.1 13.8 12.6 6.5 6.0 6.7 6.7Hindustan Zinc Neutra l 273 17,916 19.5 25.6 27.9 10.7 9.8 6.7 5.8 3.1 2.5NMDC Buy 129 7,943 11.9 12.1 12.8 10.7 10.1 6.7 6.3 1.6 1.5

CMP=current market price Source: MOSL

P/B(x)Rating MCAP (USD M)

EPS P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)

Valuations: Global CompaniesCompany BBG P/BV (x)

CODE CUR YR NXT YR CUR YR NXT YR CY17MiningBHP-Bi l l i ton BHP AU AUD 24 89,802 12.0 14.2 5.2 5.7 1.6FMG FMG AU AUD 5 12,401 4.9 8.0 3.1 4.3 nmRio Tinto RIO AU AUD 60 72,803 9.6 13.0 4.8 5.8 1.9Vale Vale US USD 27 45,958 6.9 9.5 4.6 5.9 1.1Teck Resources TCK US USD 22 12,630 6.1 9.3 4.0 5.4 0.9STEEL Arcelor Mitta l MT NA EUR 7 23,761 9.2 9.0 4.7 4.7 nmPosco 005490 KS k KRW 270 21,039 9.3 8.7 5.6 5.4 0.6US Steel X US USD 30 5,302 10.2 9.4 5.0 4.5 2.2Nucor NUE US USD 60 19,133 13.8 13.3 6.9 7.1 2.3JFE 5411 JT JPY 1,857 10,202 20.7 10.4 9.0 6.8 nmGerdau GGBR4 BZ BRL 10 5,165 25.4 11.7 6.7 5.4 1.1Angang 000898 CH CNY 5 5,300 14.5 12.0 7.2 6.5 0.8NON FERROUSAlcoa AA US USD 32 5,839 12.2 12.9 4.0 4.6 1.0Norsk Hydro NHY NO NOK 51 12,185 13.9 13.2 6.1 6.0 1.2Rusa l 486 HK HKD 4 7,424 6.8 6.0 9.3 9.1 nm

Source: Bloomberg

EV/EBITDA(x)Currency PRICE MCAP (US$ M)

PE (x)

Metals Valuation Matrix

24 April 2017 26

Metals Weekly

Metals stock performance on absolute and relative basis (%)

Months 1 3 6 12 1 3 6 12SteelTata Steel -9.2 -3.5 6.0 27.2 -8.8 -11.0 1.0 13.8SAIL -4.5 1.5 24.4 31.2 -4.1 -6.0 19.5 17.7JSW Steel -2.3 -2.5 7.4 38.9 -1.9 -10.0 2.5 25.5JSPL -12.3 40.1 46.9 52.7 -11.9 32.6 42.0 39.2NMDC -5.6 -11.7 6.0 26.5 -5.2 -19.2 1.1 13.1Non-FerrousVedanta -11.2 -5.1 17.1 121.2 -10.8 -12.6 12.2 107.7Hindustan Zinc -11.2 -6.9 10.0 56.6 -10.8 -14.5 5.0 43.2Nalco -9.3 -5.8 29.8 53.3 -8.9 -13.4 24.8 39.8Hindalco -5.9 6.7 24.3 84.7 -5.5 -0.8 19.3 71.3Mid CapsMonnet Ispat 13.3 34.5 54.7 46.3 13.7 27.0 49.8 32.8Godawari 7.6 20.0 36.8 49.2 8.0 12.5 31.9 35.7Sarda Energy 1.3 -1.7 2.0 126.9 1.7 -9.2 -2.9 113.4Tata Sponge 18.7 30.8 26.2 51.8 19.1 23.2 21.3 38.3Adhunik Meta l iks -3.6 -3.1 -4.2 -41.6 -3.2 -10.6 -9.2 -55.1Bhushan Steel 43.4 69.2 75.9 91.0 43.8 61.7 71.0 77.5Ja i Ba la ji 33.3 38.9 80.2 138.7 33.7 31.4 75.2 125.2Rain Industries 4.7 60.4 89.4 214.0 5.1 52.9 84.5 200.6Prakash Industries 12.3 34.1 40.9 112.8 12.7 26.6 36.0 99.3SENSEX -0.4 7.5 4.9 13.5 - - - -

Absolute Perf (%) Relative Perf to Sensex (%)

Global Metals stock performance on absolute basis (%)

1week 1month 3 months 6 months 7 months 12 months MiningRio Tinto -2.0 -8.1 -11.6 16.6 27.2 27.2BHP Bi l l i ton -1.1 -2.4 -9.9 7.0 14.2 14.2Vale 1.7 -6.0 -9.5 51.9 60.4 60.4FMG -0.9 -17.7 -12.8 5.8 50.6 50.6Anglo American -4.5 -10.4 -14.2 6.0 49.5 49.5Vedanta -9.3 -18.4 -32.7 4.5 58.5 58.5SteelUS Steel 3.4 -9.9 -8.4 64.6 54.7 54.7Nucor 5.3 -2.2 -0.2 24.9 21.2 21.2Arcelor Mitta l 0.1 -12.8 -6.1 21.3 41.1 41.1Angang -4.6 -6.4 -10.6 13.0 6.7 6.7Posco 1.7 -7.8 -2.9 12.5 8.7 8.7JFE Holdings 3.1 -6.7 -4.5 27.4 1.8 1.8Nippon 0.7 -6.5 -8.2 20.8 -1.3 -1.3Thyssen Krupp -1.4 -5.2 -8.7 -2.6 1.6 1.6Voest Alpine 0.1 -5.7 -5.2 14.3 17.9 17.9Gerdau 2.0 -19.5 -20.1 -4.4 38.5 38.5AluminiumAlcoa 2.3 -4.6 -10.5 57.0 35.8 35.8Rusa l -0.3 -4.7 3.0 49.8 35.5 35.5Chalco 4.1 3.3 13.4 38.7 47.3 47.3

Absolute Perf (%)

Metals Stock Performance

Among large-cap companies, JSPL was the best relative performer.

Among mid-cap companies, Bhushan Steel was the best relative performer over one

month.

Among global mining companies, Vale was the best relative performer over one week.

Among global steel majors, Nucor Mittal was the best

relative performer.

Among the global aluminum, Chalco was the best

relative performer

24 April 2017 27

Metals Weekly

N O T E S

24 April 2017 28

Metals Weekly

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