2.3. market analysis & emergency food security assessment food security cluster needs assessment...
TRANSCRIPT
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2.3. Market Analysis & Emergency Food Security Assessment
Food Security Cluster Needs Assessment Workshop Dhaka, Bangladesh19 – 20 February 2012
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Session ObjectivesAfter this session, participants should be able to:•Define a number of market analysis concepts•Explain how market assessment can inform an
emergency food security assessment•Identify the key aims and components of a
market assessment survey
Food Security Assessments: Phases & Tools
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Why?Market Analysis: to inform FS response decisions
Facilitates:
food assistance intervention planning with assurance that impact on domestic food production and food markets is not negative
decision whether cash or food aid is the best option to address food insecurity
local or regional food purchase planning and ensure these are implemented at the best time with maximum effect on producers and markets
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Why are markets important for food availability?
Markets, or better, traders ensure that: Food moves from food surplus zones to food
deficit zones Food is stored during surplus times for use
during deficit timesIf markets don’t function well, they do not perform these functions - or only at large transaction cost
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Why are markets important for food access?
HHs buy, sell, barter on markets, influencing their food availability, while prices they pay & receive, & their use of credit, influence HH income & expenditure
Each HH is confronted with price variation, influencing its ability to acquire food, & buying, selling, bartering patterns of HHs throughout the year & between years
HH food access influences individual food intake
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markets and the food security & nutrition framework
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What?Purpose of Market Analysis in FSA
1. Estimate national/regional/local food supply capacities against domestic requirements
2. Gauge HH dependency on markets for food
3. Gauge HH capabilities to access food through markets
4. Determine market response capacities to cover food demand gaps
5. Formulate early warnings if domestic production & markets cannot cover food demand gaps
6. Inform food security response strategies
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Macro-level analysis of food availability – conducted through analysis of secondary market data
Market vulnerability to macro-economic conditions: economic growth & price volatility, international reserves
Policy environment : trade policies, regulations, institutions, food policy and interaction of grain reserves with markets, governance
What?Markets and food availability
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Meso-level analysis of food availability▫ conducted through trader surveys & community interviews ▫ Seeks to understand market structure, conduct and
performance
Micro-level analysis of food availability▫ conducted through HH-level surveys▫ Seeks to understand HH-level food availabilities
What?Markets and food availability
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• Evidence suggests very few, if any, HHs are “autarkic” (or “self-sufficient”) in terms of food
• Majority of HHs buy more than they sell on markets
What?HH participation in markets and food security
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Households Dependence on Markets for Food
Country % of HH food obtained at market
WFP Household Surveys
Mali 70%
Niger 70%
Lao, PDR 40%
Tanzania 66%
Timor Leste
59%
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What?Market Structure
Identifying critical marketing chains that may have been disrupted by the shock
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What?Market Conduct
Identifying patterns of behaviour that traders follow to affect or adjust to changing market conditions:
•Price-setting behaviour
▫Level of competition
•Buying and selling practices
▫Weights and measures
▫Grades and standards
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What?Market Performance
Identifying extent to which markets produce outcomes deemed good or preferred by society: regular, predictable availability of basic foods at affordable prices
• Price levels and stability over time and space (market integration)
• Margins and costs
• Volumes
• Profits: excessive or not
• Product quality
• Food distribution within market
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Market Performance: Example50
10
015
020
025
0M
on
thly
Defla
ted M
illet P
rice
(C
FA
/Kg)
1996m1 1998m7 2001m1 2003m7 2006m1Month and Year
Agadez Diffa
Dosso MaradiNiamey TahouaTillaberi Zinder
Real millet prices in regions of Niger and Nigeria, 1995 to 2006
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What?Market Integration?
Identifing the existence of trade flows: the movement of food in response to supply/demand imbalances
Market integration allows price signals to be transmitted from one market to another
Impact on HH Food Security of market integration?
▫When markets are integrated, prices become more stable: then HH FS is likely to be improved, as poor HHs can obtain food at more affordable prices
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How?Using market-based interventions to address food insecurity
Improve market functioning / reduction of transaction cost, often with partners, to:
reduce (informal) taxes
improve infrastructure
broaden the number of traders
enhance trade credit provisioning, etc.
Distribute cash or vouchers
Local and regional procurement
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How?Market Analysis tools for FSA
Price analysis tools (e.g. CPI, seasonality analysis, volatility analysis, terms of trade analysis) to understand:
• How shocks may have disrupted or added to “normal” prices fluctuations
Market survey tools (e.g. Trader Survey) to understand:
• Current price and sales conditions
• 6 month outlook for price and sales conditions
• Market constraints
• Market response
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ExamplesGeneric Trader Survey
Sidr Cyclone Trader Survey
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Useful Resource
WFP VAM’s
“Market Analysis Tool: How to conduct a trader survey”
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To summarise, markets:
Influence food availability, co-determine purchasing and selling conditions, have an impact on food access and, subsequently, an indirect influence on individual food intake
Play a role in addressing food insecurity, through market interventions, local procurement and cash/voucher programmes
Wrap-upMarkets & Food Security Analysis