21th annual southern california tourism outlook conference cic research, inc. 8361 vickers st. san...
TRANSCRIPT
21th Annual Southern CaliforniaTourism Outlook Conference
CIC Research, Inc.8361 Vickers St.
San Diego, CA 92111858-637-4000
www.cicresearch.com
Pasadena Convention Center
October 30, 2009
2
2008 - 2009The Perfect Storm
3
September 15, 2008
4
The Stock Market Meltdown
5
2008Dow down34% by the end of 2008
6
Business Bankruptcies and Bailouts
8
Layoffs - Unemployment
Fearful Overseas Travelers
9
Lodging Industry Challenged
10
11
And Tourism Goes On Sale?
12
When Will Tourism Recover?
13
It Will Be A Long Slow Climb
14
Southern California Perspective
15
Southern California Perspective
23.4 Mil. people in Southern California
About 7.5 Mil. households
More than 9.8 Mil. employees
Estimated 301,000 hotel and motel rooms
Southern California:23.4 million of 38.3 million CA population (61%)9.8 million of 16.2 million CA employees (61%)
Who Is A Visitor?
Economic Base Definition
A Visitor Is:- Not a resident of SoCal (stay less than 6 months)- Not here for daily
employment- Not a student
16
17
2009 SoCal Hotel Room Inventory
LA SD OCRiv/ San
Bern KernSanta
Barbara SLO VenturaImperial
Co
2009 108,800 57,595 55,330 41,741 9,525 9,153 8,216 8,055 2,600
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000 301,000 Rooms 109.9 Mil. Room Nights
Avail. 60.6% Occ. Rate 66.6 Mil. Room Nights
Sold
Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR.
Rooms
SoCal Hotel Rooms Sold
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p
Rms Sold 68.5 73.2 75.5 75.3 75.5 72.8 66.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR.
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Millions of Room Nights
No change 2005 - 2007?
SoCal Hotel Room Revenue
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009p
Revenue $6.44 $6.99 $7.82 $9.04 $9.10 $9.01 $7.42
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
Sources: CIC Research, LACVB, AOCVCB, SDCVB, & STR.
19
$ Billions
Peak in 2007
20
51.246.9
43.6 41.246.1
49.2 51.056.0 58.0
52.955.9
0 M
20 M
40 M
60 M
80 M
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 09p 10p
International Visitors to the U.S.
Millions
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, OTTI, October 2009.
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2.7 2.73.0
2.5
2.0 1.92.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3
2.0
0 M
1 M
2 M
3 M
4 M
98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 08 09p
SoCal Ports of Entry-All Overseas Visitor Arrivals
Millions
Source: CIC Research & Dept. of Homeland Security
22
0.70
0.58 0.60
0.50
0.37 0.32
0.37 0.38 0.33 0.30 0.28
0.21
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09p
SoCal Ports of Entry - Japan
Millions
Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security
23
0.31 0.32
0.370.33
0.28 0.28 0.27 0.280.26 0.26
0.280.24
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09p
SoCal Ports of Entry - U.K.
Millions
Source: CIC Research & U.S. Dept. of Homeland Security
24
Overnight Visitors to SoCal
25
40.438.2 37.4
39.8 40.943.4 43.2 42.0 40.7 38.3 38.3
0 M
10 M
20 M
30 M
40 M
50 M
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09p '10f
Domestic Overnight Visitors to SoCal
Millions
Source: CIC Research, Inc.
26
6.9
5.9
5.0 4.85.3 5.6 5.6 5.9 6.1
5.6 5.8
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09p '10f
SoCal Overnight International Visitors
Millions
Source: CIC Research, Inc.
27
47.344.1 42.4 44.6 46.2
49.0 48.8 48.3 46.843.9 44.2
0 M
10 M
20 M
30 M
40 M
50 M
60 M
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09p '10f
Millions
Total Overnight Visitors to SoCal
Source: CIC Research, Inc.
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$25.0$22.9 $22.0 $22.6
$24.1$26.4 $26.9
$28.0 $27.7
$24.5 $25.0
$0 B
$5 B
$10 B
$15 B
$20 B
$25 B
$30 B
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09p '10f
$ Billions
Total SoCal Overnight Visitor Spending
Source: CIC Research, Inc.
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SoCal Overnight Visitor Forecast
(2009-2010)¨ Visitors
43.9 M (2009 Preliminary) Down (-6%)43.6 - 44.4 M (2010 Forecast) Modest(-0.5% to 1%)
¨ International Visitors5.6 M (2009 Preliminary) Down (-8%)5.7 - 5.9 M (2010 Forecast) Up (3% to 5%)
¨ Domestic Visitors38.3 M (2009 Preliminary) Down (-6%)38.0 - 38.5 M (2010 Forecast) Flat (-0.5% to 0.5%)
¨ Spending$24.5 B (2009 Preliminary) Down (-12%) $24.7 - $25.4 B (Forecast 2009) Modest (1% to 3%)
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Can SoCal Tourism Weather the Storm?