2050 scenario analysis using the eu cti 2050 roadmap tool...nov 10, 2019 · insights from the...

EU CTI 2050 Roadmap Tool

2050 scenario analysis using the EU CTI 2050 Roadmap Tool

Industry – Support Material for Beta-testers

October 2018

Michel Cornet

Julien Pestiaux


Content

2 14/11/2018

Project context

Modelling approach

Ambition levels & main assumptions

Bibliography

EU CTI 2050 Roadmap Tool CONFIDENTIAL3 14/11/2018

Structure of the ECF EU CTI 2050 Roadmap model

Buildings

Model core

Energy requirements by sector

Demography, economy and lifestyle assumptions

Transport Manufacturing

Fossil fuels

Demand activity input

Energy supply

Impact on resources

Land

Outside the EU

Foodproduction

Lifestyle DemographyEconomy, fuel prices

Technologies, Energy & Resources Trans-boundary effects,Trade, & Flows

EU CTI 2050 Roadmap Tool CONFIDENTIAL4 14/11/2018

Structure of the ECF EU CTI 2050 Roadmap model

Buildings

Model core

Energy requirements by sector

Demography, economy and lifestyle assumptions

TransportResidential Commercial

Heating technologiesAppliance efficiencies

Passenger CommercialTransport Technologies

Manufacturing

Product DesignMaterials production

Fossil fuels Fossil fuel reserves

Demand activity input

Energy supply

DietTravel demand, mode & occupancy

Compactness of buildingsAppliance use, product demand

Electricity productionHeat production

Transport & DistributionStorage

Impact on resources

DemographyUrbanization trends

Land

Outside the EU

FoodEnergy

GHGMaterials & resources

Fossil fuel pricesEconomy evolution

Foodproduction

LivestockCrops

Land allocationForestryBiomass

Lifestyle DemographyEconomy, fuel prices

Technologies, Energy & Resources Trans-boundary effects,Trade, & Flows

EU CTI 2050 Roadmap Tool5 14/11/2018

4 ambition levels are used as boundaries to create scenariosAny value can be chosen in between

Level 3Level 2Level 1Level 0

• Current development (existing legal obligations)

• No additional effort• « BAU scenario »

• Increased ambition compared to BAU

• No breakthrough, but more extensive use of existing technologies

• Ambitious: Significant effort requiring extensive changes in the system, leveraging best practices available today

• Typically reaching –85%

• Transformational: Max potential based on transformational changes but reflecting technical or physical constraints


Content

CONFIDENTIAL6 14/11/2018

Project context

Modelling approach


Bibliography

EU CTI 2050 Roadmap Tool14/11/2018 CONFIDENTIAL7

Industry sectors are linked to products from other sectors

CCS

Technology choice

Additional consumption

Specific consumption per technology

Lifetime & utilisation

Energy efficiency

Fuel switch

Sector activity

Product demand

Product productionin EU

Material production

Secondary material

Share EU materials

Products per activity

X

Product production

X

Share EU products

X

Material intensity

X

Design

Material productionper origin in EU

Material productionper origin

X

X

Material production per technologyX

Energy consumption per technology

Energy consumption per technology

X

X

Levers

Legend

Variables

Material switch

Product demand Material demand Material production


SOURCE: EUCalc

14/11/2018 CONFIDENTIAL8

The CTI industry modelling logic is very similar tothe EUCalc industry modelling logic (the later is still under development)


Content


Project context

Modelling approach


3 slides summary

Historic calibration

Lever assumptions and scenarios choices

Bibliography


Insights from the Ambitious and Transformational scenarioProduct demand


Topic Elements Level 2 scenario Level 3 scenario

High reductions are achievable in industry

• GHG emission reductions• GHG emission reductions without

CCS

• ~ - 80% reduction is achievable• ~ - 35% reduction is achievable

without CCS

• ~-95% reduction is achievable• ~-80% reduction is achievable

without CCS

Product demand(Most actionable lever)

• Spread of choices for consumers in Buildings, Transportation and Food products (steel illustration on next slide)

• Leads to a 30% increase in product demand

• Relies on an ambitious change in consumer behaviours

• Assumed slightly longer lasting higher added value products

• Assumes some shifts to a functional economy

• This scenario leads to a 30% decrease in product demand

• Relies on an complete change in consumer behaviours

• Assumed longer lasting higher added value products

• Assumes major shifts to a functional economy

Share of products and materials manufactured in the EU

• Trade balance of products• Trade balance of materials

• The current trade balance is kept for products and materials in both scenarios. This is the consequence of assuming a level playing field

• Regarding products; there is a minor export balance of transport vehicles, a neutral balance of buildings and some imports of consumer goods

• Regarding materials, there is a 2-5% net import balance of steel and chemical products with some export of clinker


Insights from the Ambitious and Transformational scenarioMaterial demand



Design(2nd most actionable lever)

• Product lifetime/utilisation • General• Product lifetime +10%• Products utilisation +10%

• Cars are more used, leading to a decreased lifetime of 9 years

• Buildings renovations are not associated to a lifetime

• General• Product lifetime +15%• Products utilisation +15%

• Cars are even more used, leading to a decreased lifetime of 6.5 years

• Buildings renovations are not associated to a lifetime

• Material switches driven by large investments and regulatory pressure (e.g. insulation in buildings)

• In vehicles, 10% of steel is substituted by carbon fibres

• In buildings and infrastructures, 10% of concrete is substituted by insulation materials

• In vehicles, 20% of steel is substituted by carbon fibres

• In buildings, 20% of concrete is substituted by insulation materials (5% in infrastructures)

• Material intensity, through better design and better materials

• 5% material reduction through better design (e.g. better moulding techniques)

• 3-15% material reduction through the use of better materials

• 10-20% material reduction through better design (e.g. through more use of 3D printing)

• 6-30% material reduction through more efficient materials (especially through the use of composites and polymers, but also better dimensioned used of cement mixes)

• Use of recycled materials • Steel scrap reaches 56%• Recycled plastics reach 7.5%• 66% clinker in cement

• Steel scrap reaches 75%• Recycled plastics reach 10%• 10% clinker in cement


Insights from the Ambitious and Transformational scenarioMaterial production



Processes • Process changes and Energy efficiency (new plants, investments in existing plants and switches to new technologies)

• In steel BOF : 5% EE on classic plants, 9% switches to HIsarna

• In chemicals: 20-25% EE improvements• In cement, 18% EE in clinker; no more

wet clinker, and polymer cement makes 10% of the production

• In steel BOF: 10% EE on classic plants, 30% switches of Hisarna

• In Steel EAF: 5% EE• In chemicals, 40-50% EE improvements

(assuming hydrogen conversion)• In cement, 30% EE in clinker, no more

wet clinker, and polymer cement makes 20% of the production

• Electrification and gasification • In steel BOF, 2.5% of coke is substituted by gas

• In chemicals, 40% of fossil fuels are substituted by electricity (through resistive heating), 20% of the remaining solid and liquid fuels are substituted by gas.

• In steel BOF, 5% of coke is substituted by gas

• In chemicals, 60% of fossil fuels are substituted by electricity (through resistive heating), 30% of the remaining solid and liquid fuels are substituted by gas.

Hydrogen • Technology change to hydrogen • In Steel: 10% hydrogen route • In chemicals: 30% of ammonia and

nitrogen, 10% for other

• In Steel: 30% hydrogen route• In chemicals: 60% in ammonia and HVC,

5% HVC, 30% for other

Biomass(incl. CCU)

• Fossil fuel switch to biomass• Use of biomass in the feedstocks

• In steel BOF 15% of coal is substituted by biomass

• In chemicals, 10% of fossil fuels are substituted by biomass

• In cement, 46% of fossil fuels are substituted by biomass

• In steel BOF 15% of coal is substituted by biomass

• In chemicals, 30% of fossil fuels (incl. feedstocks) are substituted by biomass

• In cement, 100% of fossil fuels are substituted by biomass

CCS • Share of emissions captured with the technology

• Steel (classic) 38% and HIsarna (85%)• HVC and other chemicals 50%• Ammonia and nitrogen 85%• Cement clinker production 64%

• Inclusion of CCS is ambitious• HVC 62% and other chemicals 50%• Ammonia and nitrogen 85%• Cement Clinker 85%, polymers 80%


Content


Project context

Modelling approach


3 slides summary



Bibliography


Historic calibration is performed from 2005 to 2015

Products Materials Energy consumption Emissions

• Product demand from the other sectors, aligned with desk research

• Share of products manufactured in the EU (no credible source found for all sectors)

• Specific material consumption per product from Global Calc and “With both Eyes open”(1)

• Share of materials manufactured in the EU from Eurostat

• Energy vector use for energy or feedstocks from Eurostat

• Split per origin (primary & secondary) and per technology (e.g. BOF, Hisarna) aligned with desk research

• Specific process emissions from literature

• GHG emissions from combustion and processes from Eurostat

SOURCE: (1) With both Eyes open, Julian M Allwood, Jonathan M Cullen, 2012 Cambridge UIT

Gaps pluggedGaps plugged Gaps plugged Gaps plugged


Material calibration covers most of the base year product demand

26 1596

Other industries

50150

Steel Chemical HVCChemical Ammonia

Chemical Nitrogen

Chemical Other Cement

1395

Fertilizer

Airplanes

Residential buildings

Other buildings

Batteries

Consumer packaging

Other cement

Other

Other chemical Nitrogen

Other chemical Other

Other steel

Other chemical Ammonia

Electrical equipment

Other chemical HVC

Wind turbines

Electrical cables

Pipes

Mechanical equipments

Appliance

Metal goods

Ships Freight

Infrastructure

Rail Passenger

Cars & light truck

Cars & light truck EV

Trucks

Ships Passengers

Rail Freight

PV panels

Material demand per product[Mt, before design & switch]


SOURCE: Global Calculator, Climact analysis


Historical calibration for product demand(transport sources)

Product Stock demand [units] Annual demand [units] Source

Passenger Vehicles

= 512 million people (1)

*49% car ownership rate (1)

Function of total transport demand, (pkm), modal share (%), occupancy rate (pkm/vkm) asset use rate (vkm/year)

Vehicles are the sum of A) the replacement rates for the current fleet +B) the potential positive increases year on year in vehicle fleet size

(1) Eurostat(2) EU CTI Transport module

Passenger ships

=395 million ships passenger in EU in 2015(1)

/400 ships have 400 people capacity (2)

/300 functions 300 days per year(2)

From stock with lifetime (1) Eurostat(2) Climact

Freight ships =3.8 billion tonnes in EU in 2015 (1)

/ gross tonnage of 7400 tons per ship (1)

/30 trips per year(2)


Passenger Rail = 40 000 passenger locomotives in stock on EU market (1) From stock with lifetime (1) Eurostat

Freight rail = 50 000 locomotives in stock on the EU market (1)

-40 000 for passenger transport(2)From stock with lifetime (1) Statista

(2) Eurostat

Airplanes =918 million air passengers (1)

/170 planes have 170 passenger capacity (2)

/4 Assumption of 4 flights per day (2)

/300 functions 300 days per year (2)

(In line with 20,000 airplanes operating in the world (3))

From stock with lifetime (1) Eurostat(2) Climact(3) Boeing

Batterie Not assessed = # of electric vehicles + x * # of electric trucks (1)

(1) EU CTI Transport module

BACKUP

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Figure_2_Number_of_passenger_cars_per_1000_inhabitants,_2015.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Maritime_ports_freight_and_passenger_statisticshttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Maritime_ports_freight_and_passenger_statisticshttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Figure_1_Number_of_passenger_railway_vehicles,_selected_countries,_2015.pnghttps://www.statista.com/statistics/453306/european-countries-number-of-locomotives-and-railcars/http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Figure_1_Number_of_passenger_railway_vehicles,_selected_countries,_2015.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/Air_transport_statistics




Historical calibration for product demand(Buildings & food sources)



= 512 million people (1)

*(103,8+93,8)/2 average gross surface of the dwellings (1)

/2,3 number of people per dwelling (1)

Material intensity of renovations is 10% /m² of material intensity of new builds

From stock with lifetime (1) Eurostat(2) EU CTI Buildings module

Other buildings

17% of residential buildings (1)

Material intensity of renovations is 10% /m² of material intensity of new buildsFrom stock with lifetime (1) Global

calculator

Infrastructure 500% of residential buildings (1) From stock with lifetime (1) Global calculator

Mechanical equipment

Not modelled Not modelled /

Appliances Not modelled Not modelled /

Metal goods =280kg (Fridge/freezer 100kg, Oven 60kg, Microwave 20kg, Washing machine 100kg)(2)

* 512 million people (1)

/2.3 persons per households(1)


Consumer packaging

512M inhabitants (1)

* 160kg per inhabitant per year (2) (1) Eurostat(2) Eurostat

Fertilizers 22 million tons (1) FAO

BACKUP

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Development_of_packaging_generated_per_inhabitant,_EU-27,_2005%E2%80%932014.pnghttp://www.fao.org/3/a-i4324e.pdf




Historical calibration for product demand(Supply sources)


Wind turbines =142 GW of capacity installed in EU in 2015 (1)

/3MW per turbine (2)From stock (of previous year to avoid loops) with lifetime

EU CTI Power module(2) Climact

PV panels =17.2 GW of capacity installed in EU in 2015 (1)

/200 W/m² (2)From stock (of previous year to avoid loops) with lifetime

EU CTI Power module(2) Climact

Thermal & nuclear power plants

Not modelled / /

BACKUP

To assess the annual demand, across all sectors, in most cases,stock/lifetime is used in stead of stock variation

to make demand more stable


Content


Project context

Modelling approach


3 slides summary



Bibliography




Product lifetime and utilisation1) Lever impacts

11

Cars & light truckCars & light truck EV

Ships Passengers

Airplanes

10

29

36

26

52

14

14

27

Ships Freight

20

36

20

Mechanical equipments

27Rail PassengerRail Freight

189Batteries

1

45

PV panels


14

45


Other buildings

2045Infrastructure

14Appliance5Metal goods

65

20

Consumer packaging1

Electrical cables

39

Trucks

23Wind turbines

7

65

1414

Fertilizer

52

13

39

65

33

20

14

Lifetime level 3

Lifetime level 0

Lifetime level 2

Lifetime level 1

Product lifetime [years] *utilisation change [%]

Combines product lifetime and product utilisation (functional economy)

Assessed by the transport module,for cars utilisation impact is bigger than lifetime

Assessed by the buildings module, buildings lifetime not relevant vs renovation

EU activityLifetime

& utilisationShare of products

from EU Materialswitch

Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials

Share of materialsfrom EU

Processes Hydrogen Biomass CCS


Lever Description Ambitious change scenario (Level 2),leveraging best practices available today

Transformational change scenario (Level 3),the maximum potential

In general, this lever is determined by 2 parameters‒ Product lifetime‒ Product utilisation rate

Product lifetime increases by 10%, which requires higher quality, higher added value productsProduct utilisation increases by 10%, which requires a significant development of the functional economy

Product lifetime increases by 15%, which requires high investmentsProduct utilisation increases by 15% which requires major transformational changes from products to services

In transport, vehicle lifetime is determined by 2 parameters:‒ Industry lever ‘lifetime’

(how many km a vehicle perform in its life)‒ Transport lever ‘utilisation rate’

(how many km a vehicle performs per year)

Major switch to transport as a serviceCars‒ Can perform more km in lifetime(1)

‒ Perform more km per year(1)

‒ last 9 yearsTrucks‒ last 13.5 years

Total switch to transport as a serviceCars‒ Can perform more km in lifetime(1)

‒ Perform more km per year(1)

‒ last 6.5 years Trucks‒ last 14.2 years

In buildings, new buildings demand is determined by 3 parameters:‒ Demand for new dwellings‒ Destruction rate‒ Renovation rate

Residential buildings:‒ Dwellings additional demand, destruction and

renovation (1)

Commercial buildings:‒ Surface additional demand, destruction, and

renovation(1)

Residential buildings:‒ Dwellings additional demand, destruction and

renovation (1)

Commercial buildings:‒ Surface additional demand, destruction, and

renovation(1)

NOTE: (1) not quantified in this document


Product lifetime and utilisation2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Product Information Source

General rationale Product lifetime/utilisation in 2050 evolves as follow vs 2015 lifetime: (1) Global Calculator

Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

90%(1) 100%(1) 120%(1) 130%(1)

Vehicles specifics Assessed by the Transport module(In line with 10.7 years old, and growing, average age of cars in the European Union) (1)

(1) European Automobile Manufacturers association(2) Climact transport module

Buildings specifics Assessed by the Buildings moduleWith higher ambitions, the renovation rate increases (1)

(1) Climact buildings module


Product lifetime and utilisation3) Sources

BACKUP

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




SOURCE: EU Calc (preliminary)


Share of products manufactured in the EU1) Lever impacts

Share of product manufactured in the EU [%]

Ships Passengers

90%

Cars & light truck

Electrical cables

80%

81%

121%

Cars & light truck EV

50%

50%

100%

Trucks

90%

Batteries

80%

80%

90%Fertilizer

80%

100%

PV panels

Ships Freight80%

120%

50%

Rail PassengerRail Freight

60%

120%Airplanes 80%20%

100%


50%

100%Other buildings

121%

100%InfrastructureMechanical equipments

10%

50%ApplianceMetal goods

50%

81%

50%

50%Wind turbines


120%

120%

120%

Consumer packaging

90%

100%

50%

90%

90%

90%

90%

120%

Lifetime level 0

Lifetime level 3

Lifetime level 2

Lifetime level 1

Will remain local

Import intensive

Import intensive

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






In general, this lever reflects how much of the demand for products in Europe is addressed by European manufactured products

We assume the ambitious scenarios does not import or export more products



Share of products manufactured in the EU2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Product Information on base valueInformation of the evolution

Source

Overall Europe is in financial terms small net exporter, while it imports raw materials, it exports chemicals, machineryWith regards to china, while Europe is a net exporter of services (by value), it is a net importer of goods

Product lifetime in 2050 evolves as follow vs 2015 lifetime:

Eurostat 1,2,3will be reviewed in EU Calc

0 1 2 3

120% 100% -10% -20%

Cars and light trucks 100,6% : 115 000 cars are exported from EU in 2016 (1), vs an EU annual demand of 18,3M cars

Aligned with overall (1) Eurostat

Trucks 100%: 200 trailers& semi trailers are exported from the EU (1) vs an EU annual demand of 0,7m vehicles

Aligned with overall (1) Eurostat

Passenger ships, freight ships 100% Aligned with overall Climact, will be reviewed in EU Calc

Passenger rail, freight rail 100% Aligned with overall Climact, will be reviewed in EU Calc

Airplanes 100% Aligned with overall Climact, will be reviewed in EU Calc

Batteries 40% Aligned with overall Climact, will be reviewed in EU Calc

Residential buildings, other buildings, infrastructure

100%: Buildings are not imported or exported 100% : Buildings will not be imported or exported

Climact

Appliances 101% Aligned with overall (1) Eurostat

Consumer goods 101% Aligned with overall (1) Eurostat

Wind turbines 100% of the wind turbines are manufactured in the EU Aligned with overall Climact, will be reviewed in EU Calc

PV panels 30% of the PV panels are manufactured in the EU Aligned with overall Climact, will be reviewed in EU Calc


Share of products manufactured in the EU3) Sources

BACKUP

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials



http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Evolution_of_extra_EU-28_trade,_2008-2016_(billion_EUR).pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:EU-28_exports_by_product_group,_2008_and_2016.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:EU-28_imports_by_product_group,_2008_and_2016.pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Extra_EU_trade_of_motor_vehicles,_by_category,_2013-2016_(EUR_million).pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Extra_EU_trade_of_motor_vehicles,_by_category,_2013-2016_(EUR_million).pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Evolution_of_extra_EU-28_trade,_2008-2016_(billion_EUR).pnghttp://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Evolution_of_extra_EU-28_trade,_2008-2016_(billion_EUR).png




Material switch1) Lever impacts

Cars & light truck

Cars & light truck EV 5%

Airplanes

5%

5%

10%

Trucks

2%Mechanical equipments

20%

20%

20%

50%

10%

5%Residential buildings

5% 20%

5%

Other buildings

Infrastructure

20%

20%

Lifetime level 0

Lifetime level 3

Lifetime level 1

Lifetime level 2

Steel substituted by chemicals [%]

Concrete substituted by chemicals [%]

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






General Large investments and regulatory pressure (e.g. insulation in buildings) are required to support the material switch. Consumer demand becomes substantial (e.g. timber in buildings)

Very large investments and regulatory pressure (e.g. insulation in buildings) are required to support the material switch. Consumer demand becomes very strong (e.g. timber in buildings)

Cars Steel is substituted• at 10% by aluminium (not modelled), and• at 10% by carbon fibres (represented by HVC

chemicals)

Steel is substituted• at 20% by aluminium (not modelled), and• at 20% by carbon fibres (represented by HVC

chemicals)

Trucks Same rationale as cars Same rationale as cars

Planes Aluminium (represented by steel) is substituted• At 25% by carbon fibres (represented by HVC)

Aluminium (represented by steel) is substituted• At 50% by carbon fibres (represented by HVC)

Buildings(residential & others)

steel is substituted • at 10% by timber (not modelled)Concrete is substituted • at 10% by timber (not modelled)• at 10% by insulation materials (represented by HVC

chemicals)

steel is substituted • at 20% by timber (not modelled)Concrete is substituted • at 20% by timber (not modelled)• at 20% by insulation materials (represented by HVC

chemicals)

Infrastructure Concrete is substituted• at 2,5% by insulation materials (represented by HVC

chemicals)

Concrete is substituted• at 5% by insulation materials (represented by HVC

chemicals)

Consumer goods / /


Material switch2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Product Switch Steel to HVC chemicals Switch cement to HVC Chemicals Source

Cars In level 3 :• steel is substituted at 20% by aluminium (2)

(not modelled)• Steel is substituted at 20% by carbon fibres(2)

(represented by HVC chemicals)

/ 1) Global Calculator consultations2) With Both Eyes open

Trucks Same rationale as cars / 1) Global Calculator consultations

Planes In level 3 :• aluminium (represented by steel) is

substituted at 50% by carbon fibres (represented by HVC)

/ 1) Global Calculator consultations

Buildings(residential & others)

In level 3 :• steel is substituted at 20% by timber in

buildings(2) (not modelled)

In level 3 :• Concrete is substituted at 20% by timber

(not modelled)• Concrete is substituted at 20% by insulation

materials (represented by HVC chemicals)

1) Global Calculator consultations with raised EU ambition by Climact

2) With Both Eyes open

Infrastructure / In level 3 :• concrete is substituted at 5% by insulation

materials (represented by HVC chemicals)

1) Global Calculator consultations

Consumer goods /


Material switch3) Sources

BACKUP

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




26

25

1

113

17

22

-9

Timber(3)

Cement in Concrete

(2)

Carbon fiber

Avg for plastics

4

Aluminium (1)

HDPE

13

Steel

50

30

Rationale

• We substitute one ton of material by one ton of another

• We could use the Young modulus to compute how much material is required to replace another (e.g., ~2x the weight of timber to replace steel)

• This is a high level approximation and the conversion factor should differ for each pair of products

• Product lifetimes are assumed not to be affected by the material change

Global calculator correction for switch factor

Specific Young modulus

NOTE: (1) Tweaked to 20% more than steel, to represent the fact 20% less mass is typically required in transport applications (2) Assuming 8% cement per ton concrete

(3) Assuming Pine, then removing 40% to account to material discontinuity safety factor

SOURCE : Wikipedia Specific modulus

31

Material switch3) Assumptions : As a simplification measure, we don’t model a Young modulus which would specify how much of a material is required to replace another

Specific Young modulus[Young modulus in Gpa, divided by density]

BACKUP

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Material intensity1) Lever impacts

Material intensity [%]

Chemical HVC

80%

79%Steel

90%

50%

90%

90%

Chemical Ammonia

Chemical Nitrogen

90%Chemical Other

100%Cement

Other industries

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

Level 0

Level 1

Level 3

Level 2

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






General The material per product required to fulfil its specifications is function of 2 parameters• The application of a better design or,• The use of materials with better performance

Steel • Design: -5% materials• Better materials: from currently 30% to 40% of

high strength steel

• Design: -10% materials• Better materials: from currently 30% to 50% of

high strength steel

Chemicals • Design: -5% (e.g. additional use of moulding leads to limited yield loss)

• Better materials: -15% (e.g. significant use of composites and polymers with better properties)

• Design: -20% (e.g. increased use of moulding and 3D-printing leads to reduced material need)

• Better materials: -30% (e.g. improved composites and polymers will have significantly better properties)

Cement • Design: -5% (e.g. additional use of optimized moulds and stainless steel)

• Better materials:-5% (e.g. through better dimensioned use of cement in the concrete mix)

• Design:-10% (e.g. intensive use of optimized moulds which could enable to use up to 40% less concrete in some places, commun use of stainless steel in combination with concrete)

• Better materials:-10% (e.g. through better dimensioned use of cement in the concrete mix and addressing the current mixes rationalization which leads to unnecessary use of cement)


Material intensity2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Material Better design (level 3) Better materials (level 3) Source

Steel -10%• explained by more advanced manufacturing

(including 3D printing) (3)

• -21%= -(50%-30%)*(1-30%)• Globally, use of strength steel is at around 20% with a potential of

50% (2)

• In EU, use of strength steel is at 30% (3)

• High strength steel (also called « Hard steel » or « High processability steels ») requires 30% less material to meet the same standards (e.g. to enable the end product to be as solid)(2)

• For automotive manufacturers, the use of Advanced and Ultra High-Strength steels (AHSS and UHSS), allow to reduce mass of the vehicles by 17% to 25% while maintaining safety standards(1)

• Producing higher strength steel does not produce significantly more CO2e emissions per ton of steel produced. It is estimated that treatments like reheating and galvanizing could increase consumption by 2-5% (with an unknown upside) (1,2)

• High strength steel can be made from primary or secondary steel (2)

1) WorldSteel fact sheet the 3Rs (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle), based ona) A) on ULSAB research (WorldAutoSteel),

carmakers’ own body structure designs b) B) ‘Determination of Weight Elasticity of

Fuel Economy for Conventional ICE Vehicles, Hybrid Vehicles and Fuel Cell Vehicles’, fka, June 2007

2) Global Calculator steel consultations3) Climact

Chemicals HVC • -20%• Increased use of molding and 3D-printing

leads to reduced material need (Plastic Europe should be contacted to review these assumptions)

• -30%• Improved composites and polymers will have significantly better

properties

1) With both eyes open

Chemicals ammonia, nitrogen, others • -5% • -5% 1) Climact

Cement • -10%• Use of optimized moulds could enable to use

up to 40% less concrete in some places (1)

• Use of stainless steel, or plastic coated bars removes the need for concrete to protect the steel(to use with caution as stainless steel is more emissions intensive

• -10%• Concrete strength is proportional to the amount of cement in the

mix, so lower strength concrete can use less cement• Current rationalisation of mixes on a site leads to above required

use of cement

1) With both eyes open (Orr et Al. (2010), research of efficient concrete shapes

Other industries • -5% • -5% 1) Climact


Material intensity3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




NOTE: for cement, recycled corresponds to the use of zero emission by products (leading to a reduced demand for clinker or polymer cement)



Recycled materials1) Lever impacts

Share of secondary materials [%]

Cement

Chemical Nitrogen

36%Steel

Chemical HVC

Chemical Other

0%

Chemical Ammonia

28%

30%Other industries

75%

20%

0%

20%

90%

51%

Level 2

Level 0

Level 1

Level 3

Recycled products are also in lifetime

(along with functional economy)

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






General Corresponds to the share of secondary materials entering the plant (it excludes the waste of the process itself)Excludes products recycling which is covered by the product lifetime lever

Share of secondary (scrap) steel in the production mix. This share is caped by the material availability at high quality and by the potential to use it in manufacturing processes.

Scrap based steel reaches 56% vs 36% today Scrap based steel reaches 75% vs 36% today

Share of recycled plastics in the production mix. This covers both 1ary recycling: material re-extruded and 2ndary recycling : plastics is ground in small chips and converted in resins

15% of HVC and other plastics are recycled 20% of HVC and other plastics are recycled

Share of recycled cement in the production mix, this mainly correspond to the use of zero-emissions by-products, leading to a reduced demand for clinker or polymer cement

66% of clinker in the cement 10% of clinker in the cement


Recycled materials2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Material Comments Source

General Covers materials recycling. Product recycling is covered in the lifetime lever

Steel There is a constrain on the availability of high quality scrap steel.Without this availability constrain, the steel recycling potential and objectives of 90% by 2050(1,2)

Scrap levels are:

1) Worldsteel fact sheet, the 3 Rs(Reduce, Reuse, Recycle)

2) Professor Robert Ayres (INSEAD) 3) Global Calculator

Today L0 L1 L2 L3

36%(3) 36%(3) 44%(3) 56%(3) 75%(3)

Chemicals HVC Product recycling is difficult because of the large amount of different plastic applications, and the cheap price of plasticsDesign and waste collection will evolve to make products more recyclable in 4 ways:• Primary recycling: material is directly re-extruded• Secondary recycling: plastics is ground in small chips, washed, dried & converted in resins (lower

quality)• Tertiary recycling: plastics are broken down chemically to produce new feedstock (e.g. by

pyrolysis)• Quaternary recycling: recovery of energy through incineration (this is addressed in the

supply/waste analysis, not in manufacturing)The first 2 ways are covered by this lever Recycling levels are:

1) With both eyes open

Today L0 L1 L2 L3

TBD 5% 10% 15% 20%

Chemicals Ammonia & Nitrogen

No recycling potential has been identified

Chemicals others Assumed same as HVC(1) 1) Climact


Recycled materials3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials





Cement Cement recycling can cover various techniques. This lever corresponds mainly to the point 4: 1) Noguchi et al. (2011) Japan research2) WBCSD Cement Sustainability

initiative3) Fortea CBR and Holcim consultations,

Febelcem annual report4) Global calculator

1. Cement ratio in concrete

• The lever excludes share of cement in the concrete (addressed in the design lever)

2. Cement chemical reaction

• The lever does not consider the reaction which makes cement. Because reversing this reaction requires theoretically at least 1GJ/t

3. Reusable components • The lever does not consider 2 technical options that enable to make concrete block components reusable at the end of life : a) Chemical connectors (1), b) Mechanical connections, with some metals, to provide a “Lego” interface

4. Composed cement • 4 types of cement substitution are most common; each has a specific resource availability and a specific impact on the cement performance

• 1) Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS)• 2) Pulverised Fly Ash (PFA),• 3) Pozzolan, and• 4) Limestone (most widely available)

• The Substitution is function of the applications. While prefabricated sector requires Portland cement (95% clinker) to dry faster (3) , other applications can be satisfied with CM III C cement (10% clinker and 90% steel slag). This cement can reach higher solidity levels than Portland cement but takes longer to dry (3)

• The following clinker rate are proposed

Current L0 L1 L2 L3

• 82% (4) • 72%(4) • 69%(4) • 66%(4) • 10%(4)

5. Crushed concrete as aggregate

• Concrete can be crushed to make an aggregate which can be used to make concrete if mixed with new cement. However extra cement is required to bind the wider range of particle sizes in crushed concrete. This is then typically used for roads and infrastructures. This is addressed in the composed cement component above (it could be considered the 5th substitution)

Other industries 1) Climact


Recycled materials3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




• Low plastics value and higher recycling complexity make plastic recycling less attractive

• Higher complexity comes from :• the higher variability of plastic manufacturing processes

and additives (to change colours & properties) & fillers (cheaper materials which increase strength & hardness)

• The fact plastics are harder to isolate from other waste streams(e.g. it is weakly magnetic)

• Only thermoplastics can be recycled(not the thermosets) (2)

• Upcoming directive will increase the plastics recycling rates in packaging will force the waste collection systems to sort and recycle most of the plastics.

• Production scraps can easily be recycled (not much improvement potential is expected here)

• Improved separation of plastics waste streams from municipal waste(difficult because diverse)

• Improved sorting of plastics waste stream(difficult because similar density and optical properties)

• 2 application areas are illustrated:

NOTE: (2) There are 2 families of plastics A) Thermoplastics which represent most of the plastics. These can be melted and reformed several times. B) Thermosets, which represent a smaller portion of the plastics. These change irreversibly on being heated, mixed, irradiated, and cannot be recycled (e.g. glass & carbon fibers)

SOURCE: (1) With both eyes open

39

Recycled materials3) Assumptions on ChemicalsRecycling rates are lower in chemicals than in other industries

Rationale on plastics recycling rates Solutions

BACKUP

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials



Packaging • ~20kg packaging /person/year is in the end consumer waste• ~30kg packaging /person/year is for moving goods from

factory to factory or shops• There is a potential to further recycle packaging products,

especially the reuse of industrial packaging

Construction • Pipes could be dismantled and reused• Car components could be reused


SOURCE: Eurostat for baseline. EUCalculator (preliminary)


Share of materials manufactured in the EU1) Lever impacts

Share of materials manufactured in the EU [%]

Other industries

79%

74%Steel

Chemical Ammonia

Chemical HVC

79%

79%Chemical Nitrogen

79%Chemical Other

127%84%Cement

77%

111%

119%

119%

119%

119%

116%

Level 0 (+20%)

Level 1 (+10%)

Level 2 (-10%)

Level 3 (-20%)

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Trade balance for both primary and secondary materials




Share of materials manufactured in the EU2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Material General evolutions to 2050 Source

General Base L0 L1 L2 L3

Steel Base 93%(1) +10%(1) +0%(1) -5%(1) -10%(1) 1) Eurostat: based on quantities of production, exports and imports

Chemicals HVC Base 98%(1) +20%(1) +0%(1) -10%(1) -20%(1)

Chemicals others Base 98%(1) +20%(1) +0%(1) -10%(1) -20%(1)

Cement Base 105%(1) +5%(1) +0%(1) -2.5%(1) -5%(1)

Other industries Base 96%(1) +20%(1) +0%(1) -10%(1) -20%(1)


Share of materials manufactured in the EU3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Technologies1) Lever impacts

Technology shares [%]

Material Origin Technologies Mix

Level 0 Level 1 Level 2 Level 3

Steel Primary BOFHIsarna

Secondary EAFDRI

Chemical HVC Primary/Sec HVC Primary

Ammonia Primary Ammonia

Nitrogen Primary Nitrogen

Other Primary/Sec Other chemicals primary

Cement Primary Clinker dryClinker wetPolymers

Secondary 0 emission by-products

Other industries Primary Other industries primary

Secondary Other industries secondary

100% 97% 91% 71%100%

9%0% 3% 29%

100% 100% 100% 100%

0%

100%

0% 0%0%

92% 90% 90% 80%

0%5%0% 8% 5% 20%0%10%

100%


EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Steel 9% of primary steel is performed with HIsarna(combined with CCS)No change for secondary steel

29% of primary steel is performed with HIsarna(combined with CCS)No change for secondary steel

Chemicals Because the chemical industry is so diverse, no major technology group is modelled. The technology potential is addressed through the EE lever

Because the chemical industry is so diverse, no major technology group is modelled. The technology potential is addressed through the EE lever

Cement Wet clinker is entirely substituted by dry clinkerPolymer cement makes up 10% of the cement production

Wet clinker is entirely substituted by dry clinkerPolymer cement makes up 20% of the cement production


Technologies2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Material Primary Secondary Source

Steel • Classic• Top Gas Recyling (HIsarna, not ULCORED) needs to be

applied together with CCS. Greenfield full HIsarnaimplementation enable a 35% consumption reduction(2)

• Hydrogen based reduction assessed through Hydrogen lever• Electrolysis is not modelled

Only EAF scrap is modelled, we assume there is no EAF DRI in Europe(3)

1) Climact2) Climact Belgium 2050 Roadmap 3) EUCalc (H2020 research project)

Techno.

Today L0 L1 L2 L3

Classic 100% 100% 97% 91% 71%

Hisarna

0% 0% 3% 9% 29%

Chemicals HVC Because the chemical industry is so diverse, no major technology group is modelled.The technological improvements are covered by the EE lever

same 1) Climact

Chemical ammonia, nitrogen The technological improvements are covered by hydrogen lever same 1) Climact

Chemicals others Same as HVC same 1) Climact

Cement Wet clinker is entirely substituted by dry clinker as of ambition level 2Polymer cement share of the production is summarized below

Technologies for zero-emitting products do not change (1)

1) Climact

Techno. Today L0 L1 L2 L3

Polymer 0% 0% 5% 10% 20%

Other industries


Technologies3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




EE1) Lever impacts

Additional EE [%]

Material Origin Technologies Additional EE

Steel Primary BOFHisarna

Secondary EAFDRI

Chemical HVC Primary/Sec HVC 1/2

Ammonia Primary Ammonia

Nitrogen Primary Nitrogen

Other Primary/Sec Other 1/2

Cement Primary Klinker dryKlinker wetPolymers

Secondary 0 emission by-products

Other industries Primary Other industries primary

Secondary Other industries secondary

5%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0%

0% 40%

5%

0%

0%

10%

6%

6%

51%

51%

40%

30%

30%

0%

0%

10%

10%

Level 0

Level 3

Level 1

Level 2


EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Steel energy efficiency potential in plants within the specified technologies. This includes the reduction of internal waste which needs to be reprocessed.

High ambition leads to• 5% EE improvements in classic plants, and• 3,5% EE improvements in EAF

Transformational ambition leads to• 10% EE improvements in classic plants, and• 5% EE improvements in EAF

Chemicals energy efficiency potential in plant. This covers the technological changes and the EE within an existing technology

Technological improvements lead to• 10% in HVC,• 15% in ammonia and nitrogen (through the

hydrogen conversion), and• 15% in other chemicals

In addition, newer plants &retrofits lead to an additional 10% in all subsectors

Technological improvements lead to• 20% in HVC,• 30% in ammonia and nitrogen (through the

hydrogen conversion), and• 30% in other chemicals


Cement Technological improvements lead to 18% EE in clinker production

Technological improvements lead to 30% EE in clinker production

Other industries In addition, newer plants &retrofits lead to an additional 7% in all subsectors



EE2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials





General Combined heat and power potential is not modelled in this version of the model

Steel Recent Energy efficiency improvements leave limited improvement within existing technologies. However:• There is ~25% scrap through the chain which can be reused (this is accounted through additional scrap

availability in level 3 and not here)• Downstream processes also reveal significant improvement potential; In the EU, through downstream

improvements, total energy efficiency could be improved by 5% (2)

• However, replacing all existing plants by BAT will enable a certain reductionBased on this, the following improvements are modelled in level 3:• For classic plants , the replacement of equipment's can lead to minor energy efficiency improvements (~10%) (1)

• For HIsarna plants, the efficiency potential has already been tapped (1)

• For Electric plants, the energy efficiency potential is lower (1)

1) Climact2) Global Calculator

Chemicals HVC In level 3, technological improvements lead to 20% EE through:• Olefin production via catalytic cracking of naphtha and via methanol, moving away from steam cracking• Olefin production via methanol• Propylene Oxide (PO)production via the hydrogen peroxide propylene oxide (HPPO) processIn addition, newer plants &retrofits lead to more catalysis and process intensification and enables to reduces energy intensity by another 20%

1) DECHEMA, ICCA catalytic roadmap

Ammonia and nitrogen In level 3, technological improvements lead to 30% EE (through the hydrogen transition)In addition, newer plants &retrofits lead to more catalysis and process intensification and enables to reduces energy intensity by another 20%


Chemicals others In level 3, technological improvements lead to 20% EE through:• Improved hydrogen generation for steam methane reformers• Synthesis of aromatics from lignin, ethanol or methane• Direct synthesis of hydrogen peroxide from hydrogen and oxygen• Direct epoxidation of propylene with oxygen In addition, newer plants &retrofits lead to more catalysis and process intensification and enables to reduces energy intensity by another 20%


Cement In level 3, technological improvements lead to 30% EE in clinker production 1) Global Calculator

Other industries


EE3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Fuel switch (1/3) Electrification and gasification

From Coal, liquid & gas to electricity [%] for combustion

Chemical HVC

Chemical Other

60%Chemical Nitrogen 0%

0% 60%

Chemical Ammonia 0%

0%

0%Other industriesPrimary

0%Other industriesSecondary

60%

60%

70%

70%

Level 0

Level 3

Level 2

Level 1


5%0%

30%

Steel oxygen

Chemical HVC 0%

From Coal, liquid to gas [%] for combustion

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Steel 2.5% of coke is substituted by gas in classic 5% of coke is substituted by gas in classic

Chemicals 40% of the fossil fuels are substituted by electricity. A large share of the heating processes can be performed by resistive heating.20% of the remaining solid and liquid fuels are substituted by gasThis is exclusive from the hydrogen lever

60% of the fossil fuels are substituted by electricity. A large share of the heating processes can be performed by resistive heating.30% of the remaining solid and liquid fuels are substituted by gasThis is exclusive from the hydrogen lever

Cement Not applied Not applied

Other industries


Fuel switch (1/3) Electrification and gasification2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Material Switch to electricity Switch to gas Source

Steel Addressed by the EAF and electrolysis technologies.

Level 3• 5% of coke is substituted by gas in

classic

1) Global Calculator

Chemicals HVC, ammonia, nitrogen, others

Level 3:• 60% of fossil fuels are substituted by

electricity. A large share of the heating processes can be performed by resistive heating

This is independent from the hydrogen lever

Level 3:• 60 of remaining solid and liquid fuels

are substituted by gas

1) Climact

Cement Not applied Not applied 1) Climact

Other industries Level 3:• 70% of fossil fuels are substituted by

electricity. A large share of the heating processes can be performed by resistive heating

Not applied 1) Climact


Fuel switch (1/3) Electrification and gasification3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Fuel switch (2/3) Hydrogen1) Lever impacts

From Coal/Oil/Gas to hydrogen [%]

Chemical Nitrogen

Chemical Ammonia

0%Steel.Oxygen

60%

0%Chemical HVC

0%

0%

0%Chemical Other


0% 30%Other industriesSecondary

30%

5%

60%

30%

30%

Level 0

Level 1

Level 3

Level 2


EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Steel Major deployments of the hydrogen route, replacing 10% of the classic BOF

Complete deployment of the hydrogen route, replacing 30% of the classic BOF

Chemicals Major change of the manufacturing processes, relying on hydrogen for 30% of the production of ammonia and nitrogen, and 10% of the other chemicals.

Complete change of the manufacturing processes, relying on hydrogen for above half the production of ammonia and nitrogen, 5% of the HVC, and 30% of the other chemicals.

Cement Not applied Not applied

Other 20% switched to hydrogen 30% switched to hydrogen


Fuel switch (2/3) Hydrogen2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials





General Hydrogen can cover 11% of the industry’s energy consumption (1)

As a future modelling improvement, the hydrogen switch, corresponding to a technological change, should be assessed prior the electrification and gasification

1) Öko Vision Scenario for Europe (2017)

Steel Simplification assumption that coal, oil and gas are substituted to hydrogen with a 1-to-1 ratio (1)

In level 3, 30% of the classic BOF production is switched to hydrogen

1) Climact2) IEA Estep research program

Chemicals HVC In level 3, 5% of fossil fuels are substituted by hydrogen (3) 1) ICCA Catalytic roadmap2) Ren, Patel and Blok, 20063) Climact (for all the ambition

levels)

Chemicals Ammonia In level 3, 60% of fossil fuels are substituted by hydrogen (3)

Chemicals Nitrogen In level 3, 60% of fossil fuels are substituted by hydrogen (3)

Chemicals others In level 3, 30% of fossil fuels are substituted by hydrogen (3)

Cement Not applied 1) Climact

Other industries


Fuel switch (2/3) Hydrogen3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




SOURCE: (1) DECHEMA, ICCA catalytic roadmap

55

Fuel switch (2/3) Hydrogen3) AssumptionsProduction of hydrogen from renewables currently uses a lot of energy

Additional energy demand versus fossil energy savings for replacement of current ammonia and methanol processes by hydrogen-based routes[% implementation of hydrogen route]

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials



• Ammonia synthesis based on hydrogen from renewable energy sources requires roughly 26 GJ/ t ammonia (NH3) more energy

• For methanol (MeOH) from hydrogen and coal, an additional 15.7 GJ/tMeOH are required compared to the gas steam reforming route and additional 5.6 GJ/tMeOH compared to the coal partial oxidation route

• In the model, we simplify by substituting 1 kwh of fossil fuel by 1 kwh of hydrogen

BACKUP


Fuel switch (3/3) Biomass and CCU1) Lever impacts

From Coal/Oil/Gas to Biomass [%] in combustion and feedstocks

0%

Steel.Oxygen 0%

0%

Chemical Ammonia

Chemical Nitrogen

Chemical HVC

0%

0%

0%Chemical Other

15%

Cement.KlinkerDry

0%Cement.KlinkerWet

30%


0%Other industriesSecondary

30%

80%

30%

20%

100%

100%

80%

Level 0

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3


EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials






Steel 15% coal is substituted by biomass (from level 2 onwards) in classic BOF plants

same

Chemicals HVC, ammonia, nitrogen and other 10% fossil fuels are substituted by biomass(5% for other chemicals)

30% fossil fuels are substituted by biomass(20 for other chemicals)

Cement 46% of fossil fuels are substituted by biomass 100% of fossil fuels are substituted by biomass


Fuel switch (3/3) Biomass and CCU2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials





Steel Levels 1,2,3• 15% coal is substituted by biomass in classic plants(1)

1) SERPECCC study

Chemicals HVC • Several monomers, such as the ethylene olefins, can be produced from plants (e.g. sugar cane 200kt/yr capacity)(2)

• More generally the feedstock can be made from biomass• Bioplastics also tend to be more biodegradable than oil based plastics (but

all 4 combinations are possible)• Overall, the energy consumption of the relevant biomass routes is 3.5 to 5

times that of the fossil route (1) . In the model we assume it requires no more fossil energy

• Catalysis process changes (lever addressed later) facilitate the inclusion of biomass feedstock

Level 3 share of biofuel is 30%

1) DECHEMA analysis for Lignocell. Via MeOH and sugar cane Sugarcane via EtOH

2) Braskem

Chemicals ammonia and nitrogen

Assumed same as HVC(1) 1) Climact

Chemicals other Assumed slightly lower than HVC (level 3 is 20%) 1) Climact

Cement Level 3 substitution of fossil fuels by biofuels is 65% 1) Global Calculator

Other industries


Fuel switch (3/3) Biomass and CCU3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials




Bio-degradability of plastic

No Yes

What it is made of

Renewable materials

Biopolymers• e.g. BioPE (PP/PET), biosourced

PA, PTT

Biopolymers• e.g. PLA, PHA,• Amidons

Fossil materials

Conventionnalpolymers• Nearly all conventional plastics• e.g. PE, PP, PET

Biopolymers• e.g. PBAT, PBS, PCL

Addressed by biomass lever(fuel and CCU)

Scope addressed by recycling lever

NOTES: Biomass availability is constrained, and enters in competition with biomass use for food, other products and energy.The Global calculator illustrates the impacts of using biomass

Some estimates lead to 10% of biomass in feedstock, (these figures include a wider scope e.g. biofuels and waste from slaughter houses)

SOURCE: (1) Fost+ environmental impact of biopackaging

59

Recycled materials3) Assumptions on bio-plastics:The term “bio” can describe 1) what it is made of, 2) if it is bio-degradable

Share of green plastics(%) (1)

EU activityLifetime



Materialintensity

Recycledmaterials



BACKUP



NOTE: Assuming covered sites capture 85% of emissions


Carbon capture & storage1) Lever impacts

Share of emissions captured [%]

Steel.Oxygen

85%

Chemical Nitrogen

64%

Steel.OxygenHisarna 80%

Steel.Electric

Steel.ElectricDRI

Chemical Ammonia

Chemical HVC

Chemical Other

Cement.KlinkerDry

Cement.KlinkerWet

80%

Cement.ZeroEmissionByProducts

Cement.Polymers

Other industriesPrimary

Other industriesSecondary

80%

80%

62%

80%

85%

85%

62%

85%

80%

64%

Level 3

Level 0

Level 2

Level 1

EU activityLifetime


from EU Material switch Material intensity Recycled materials






General 85% capture rate on sites equipped with CCS technology

same

Steel 38% of classic = 45% coverage*85% capture rate85% of HIsarna0% of EAF and DRI

85% of classic = 100% coverage*85% capture rate85% of HIsarna85% of EAF and DRI

Chemicals HVC 50%Ammonia 85%Nitrogen 85%Other 50%

HVC 62%Ammonia 85%Nitrogen 85%Other 50%

Cement Clinker 64%Zero emission by products 0%Polymers 0%

Clinker 85%Zero-emission by products 80%Polymers 80%


Carbon capture & storage2) Description by scenario

EU activityLifetime







Steel Applicable to Oxygen and Always applied on HIsarnaOnly applied in level 3 on EAF or DRI, because these are smaller installation

1) IEA ETP2012

Chemicals HVC Site applicability is function of plant size and of gas homogeneity• Crackers can be high-volume sources (1 MtCO2/yr), but their flue gas is more dilute (4% to

7% CO2, lower concentration than a coal-fired power plant which can be 10% CO2 to 12% CO2) and drive up the CO2 capture costs

1) IEA ETP2012

Chemicals Ammonia and Nitrogen

Applied to 100% of sites from ambition level 1, because• Large facilities for the production of ammonia, methanol, ethylene oxide, hydrogen and

products from coal gasification might have sufficient scale to make CCS financially feasible • the gases tend to be more homogenic

1) IEA ETP2012

Chemicals others Same as HVC 1) IEA ETP2012

Cement Applied to 100% of sites in level 3• Clinker production plants can be high volume sources and be therefore easier to address

through CCS

1) IEA ETP2012

Other industries


Carbon capture & storage3) Sources

BACKUP

SOURCE:

EU activityLifetime






Content


Project context

Modelling approach


Bibliography


▪ UK Department of Energy & Climate Change, Climate-KIC and International Energy Agency, The global Calculator Industry Steel consultation(2015)

▪ --- The Global Calculator Industry Cement consultation (2015)

▪ --- The Global Calculator Industry Chemicals consultation (2015)

▪ --- The Global Calculator Industry Cross-sector technical consultation (2015)

▪ Bath University, Construction materials database; inventory of carbon energy. Bath database

▪ Cambridge (Julian M Allwood, Jonathan M Cullen), With both eyes open (2012)

▪ Carbon Trust, Carbon Trust. Industrial Energy Efficiency Accelerator - Guide to the paper sector (CTG059). London (2011)

▪ Carbon War Room, Cement Report 1 (2011)

▪ CEFIC, European chemistry for growth, Unlocking a competitive, low carbon and energy efficient future (2013)

▪ Cembureau, the role of cement in the 2050 low carbon economy (2013)

▪ CEPI, roadmap

▪ ---, Two team project report (presents 8 breakthrough technologies)

▪ CEI Bois, Wood in carbon efficient constructions : Tools, methods & applications/ Lutter contre le changement climatique : utiliser le bois

▪ Imperial Grantham, Briefing paper Carbon Capture Technology (2010)

▪ Climact, previous consultations performed in Belgium, UK, Algeria, the Balkans & India

▪ Ecofys, SERPECC studies

▪ European Cement Research academy, Technical documentation

▪ European Climate Foundation, Europe’s low carbon transition: Understanding the challenges and opportunities for the chemical sector (2014)


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http://site2.globalcalculator.org/sites/default/files/Steel Workshop Preread.pdfhttp://site2.globalcalculator.org/sites/default/files/Cement Workshop Preread.pdfhttp://site2.globalcalculator.org/sites/default/files/Chemicals Workshop Preread.pdfhttp://site2.globalcalculator.org/sites/default/files/Cross sector workshop preread.pdf


▪ Eurofer, Low Carbon Steel Roadmap 2050 (IEA involved, led by BCG and German Steel Institute)

▪ EU JRC, Prospective Scenarios on Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions in the EU Iron & Steel Industry

▪ European Aluminium Association, www.alueurope.eu

▪ FAO, Statistics on link between product demand and materials demand

▪ GNR, Global Cement Database on CO₂ and Energy Information

▪ ICCA, Technology Roadmap: Energy and GHG Reductions in the Chemical Industry via Catalytic Processes (IEA, ICCA, Dechema)

▪ ---, The role of the chemical industry in achieving targets of IEA roadmaps on biofuel and bioenergy (2011) (ICCA and SRI International)

▪ ---, Building Technology Roadmap: The Chemical Industry’s Contribution to Energy and GHG Savings in Residential and Commercial Construction Buildings roadmaps (2012) (ICCA)

▪ IEA, 2016 Key world energy statistics

▪ ---, Chemical and Petrochemical Sector – Potential of Best Practice Technology and Other Measures for Improving Efficiency (IEA)

▪ ---, Summary report

▪ ---, Energy Technology Perspectives 2016, Pathways to a clean energy system

▪ --- ETP 2016 data

▪ ---, GHG 2008. CO2 capture in the cement industry. Report 2008/3. Cheltenham, UK: International Energy Agency Greenhouse Gas R&D Programme

▪ --- Technology Roadmap: Carbon Capture and Storage (2013)

▪ ---, UNIDO: Technology Roadmap Carbon Capture and Storage in Industrial Applications (2011)

▪ ---, US geological survey (USGS)

▪ International Cement Review, The global cement report (6th edition)

▪ ---, Insights from the global cement report (10th edition) (2013)

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2050 scenario analysis using the eu cti 2050 roadmap tool...nov 10, 2019 · insights from the...

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