ACT GOVERNMENT

2019-2028 Fire Planning

Regional Fire Management Plan

Environment Division

Environment, Planning and Sustainable Development Directorate

Overview

• Fire planning framework

• Background on fire in the ACT

• How the regional fire plan has been developed– Data inputs

– Residual risk

• Present – Discuss the plan

• Questions

BOP

Year 2

BOP

Year 1

BOP

Year 4

Strategic

Bushfire

Management

Plan

Strategic Bushfire Management Plan (SBMP) • requirement of the Emergencies Act 2004. • reviewed every 5 years• Responsibility of Minister for Emergency

Services

ACT Bushfire Management Planning Framework

Regional Fire Management Plan (RFMP) • bridges the gap between broad planning and

specific operations• planning of prescribed burns• 5 Year Plan with a 10 year outlook

Bushfire Operational Plans (BOPs)• operational annual plans - detail fire and fuel

mitigation activities

Regional Fire

Management

Plan

Bushfire

Operational

Plans BOP

BOP

Year 5

History of fire in the ACT

1979

13.02.1979 COPYRIGHT: Jeff Cutting

Landsat February 3rd 1983

2001

2001 from Mt Ainslie Lookout

Fire models and information used in the plan

• Data analysis (Phoenix tool used)

• Information into the Regional Fire Management Plan

Phoenix can be

run for single

fires as a

predictive tool

or for risk

analysis.

This fire uses

the BOM

forecast for

February 18

2017.

Fire Weather

Major life and property fires generally occur at severe and

extreme fire danger ratings.

Residual risk

• New concept for ACT (used in Victoria and Tasmania)

• The modelled risk – with no treatments

• Compared to the risk – with treatments (like prescribed burns)

Residual Risk

• Measures the effect fuel treatments such as planned burning

• Risk can be calculated for houses, water quality, ecological assets

• Assumptions:• APZs treated

• Assumes grazing

• Grass 2 tonne/ha

Fuel treatments, prescribed burning, bushfire

Training, Fire Response, Community Education,

Detection, Suppression, CFU’s

Fire Weather

• Major impacts to life and property generally occur severe and extreme fire danger ratings

• Previous events in the ACT have enabled the development of ‘nasty’ (~1 in 20 year)

weather scenario

• It considers many parameters including wind speed and directions, wind change, duration

of severe/extreme fire danger, drought index and grass curing

Canberra “fire catchment” and 1km ignition grid

Each of the 6599 fires is

run individually.

Metrics (fire size, house

loss, area of plantation

burnt, kms of powerline,

biodiversity values etc)

are calculated for each

fire.

Individual Phoenix fire ignition runs - examples

Loss for Ignition Location

• Expected (modelled) House Loss based on maximum fuels with minimum suppression

• Uses ACT address points

• Calculated using the most recent algorithm

BOP and SBMP?

No Burning after 2018

DRAFT

Risk to Life and Property

• Combined 2018 ACT NSW House Loss Burn Unit score

• ‘Burnability’ of each block area considered and shown

• Focussed on ‘address points’ as a surrogate for life and property

Baseline Analysis

Percentage Treated

Residual Risk

Annual Area Burnt

100 14% 85506

50 15% 42753

20 17% 17101

10 23% 8551

5 33% 4275

4 41% 3420

3 47% 2591

2 63% 1710

1 78% 855

• 530,000 burn simulations

• Assessed relationship between treatment levels and residual risk

• Understanding how the ‘landscape’ responds

• If you treated everything you could still only achieve 14%

5%

3%

100%

Risk to ACT Catchments

• Shows maximum risk with no history of fire.

• Demonstrates that major risks come from areas outside the ACT.

• Demonstrates some risk from fires starting within the catchments

Debris Flow Risk to Catchments

• Shows 2018 Risk analysis

Ecological risk

• Tolerable fire interval (TFI) – surrogate for biodiversity valuethat can be modelled with vegetation communities

• Measure of interval between fires to minimise loss of speciesfor each vegetation community

• Fire management of ecological assets occurs at a range of fireplanning levels– TFI – into models

– Site protection – when possible

– Burn planning – patchiness, ignition patterns, season selection,species requirements

Risk to Vegetation (biodiversity)

• Tolerable Fire Intervals.

• Scenario run with time sincefire set to minimum TFI.

– Time since fire adjusted for:

• Fire history

• 2018 levels

Plan – 2019-2028

New developments

• 5 year planning

• Aboriginal fire

management zones

• Optional burn areas

to achieve a mosaic

• Ecological burn

areas

• Cross-border burn

planning

Inputs/Considerations

Time since last burn, Mosaic across the

landscape, Effect on residual risk, NSW fuel mitigation, TFI, Ecological Assets (long

unburnt), Operational

constraints/issues, ‘Burnability’ Using optimisation

software to assist timing

• Draft Version–Requires consultation and endorsement.

Zone Aboriginal Fire Management Zone (proposed)

Purpose Areas established to support cultural burning to meet objectives defined by Traditional Custodians.

Treatments may be aimed at meeting a range of cultural land management objectives such as the

encouragement of bushtucker (e.g. yams), production of fiber for weaving, access to bark and other

materials, or maintenance of a desirable vegetation structure. Treatments to be conducted in

partnership with PCS.

Location and extent Located in areas of cultural significance with ready access for Traditional Custodians and PCS staff.

Extent suitable to encompass the ecosystems and values of interest and to support treatments that are

both manageable and meaningful.

Treatment types Prescribed cultural burning, slashing, physical removal and grazing.

Treatment frequency Burning – potentially high frequency and low coverage targeting small areas that are available to burn

in a way that will meet cultural objectives.

Physical removal – as required to meet cultural objectives or support burning.

Slashing / grazing – as required to meet cultural objectives.

Ecological impact Generally, cultural burning is not expected to be incompatible with ecological requirements. Where

there is incompatibility between cultural burning and the management of rare or threatened species,

habitats or communities, careful placement and delineation of the zone boundaries may be used.

Alternatively, cultural burning operations may be conducted in a manner and under conditions that

reduce impact on local communities

Next Steps

• Public consultation in conjunction with ESA and the Strategic Bushfire Management Plan

• Finalise Rural Fire Management Plan - May-June 2019.

www.yoursay.act.gov.au/bushfire-management-plan

http://esa.act.gov.au

Questions …