University of California, Irvine

Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences

2018– 2019

Annual Report

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Table of Contents

DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE .............................................................................................................3

I. ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION ............................................................................ 6 A. Administration ....................................................................................................................................................................6 B. Executive Committee 2018-19 .....................................................................................................................................6

II. RESEARCH ........................................................................................................................ 6 A. Current Research Programs ..........................................................................................................................................6 B. Publications ..........................................................................................................................................................................7 C. Public Talks and Colloquia .............................................................................................................................................8 D. Summaries of Research Findings ................................................................................................................................8

III. IMBS FACULTY RESEARCH SEMINARS AND LABORATORIES .............................................24 A. Research Seminars ......................................................................................................................................................... 24 B. Research Laboratories .................................................................................................................................................. 25

IV. GRADUATE TRAINING ....................................................................................................26 A. Ph.D. Students .................................................................................................................................................................. 26 B. Graduate Activities ......................................................................................................................................................... 26 C. Friday Research Presentations ................................................................................................................................. 27 D. Duncan Luce Graduate Student Conference ........................................................................................................ 29 E. 2019 Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award .............................................................................................. 31

V. COMMUNICATION ..........................................................................................................31 A. IMBS Conferences ........................................................................................................................................................... 31 B. Conferences/Seminars Organized By IMBS Members .................................................................................... 34 C. IMBS Colloquium Series ............................................................................................................................................... 35

VI. BUDGET .........................................................................................................................39 A. Appropriations and Expenditures ........................................................................................................................... 39 B. Extramural Funding Activity ..................................................................................................................................... 40 C. CURRENT FACULTY MEMBERS ................................................................................................................................ 44 D. SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS ....................................................................................................................................... 52 E. TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES ..................................................................................................................................... 68 F. FACULTY PRESENTATIONS ........................................................................................................................................ 69 G. FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS .......................................................................................................... 83 H. FACULTY ADVISING ...................................................................................................................................................... 87

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DIRECTOR’S MESSAGE

Dear Vice Chancellor Khargonekar, Dean Maurer, IMBS Colleagues, and others,

This has been an exciting year spent expanding the scope of the IMBS, including forging connections with

theoretical computer science and biologists and anthropologists working on cultural evolution, as well as

laying the foundations for the next generation of research at the IMBS.

The IMBS is a unique institution dedicated to solving important problems in the social and behavioral

sciences through the creative application of mathematics. New problems arise all the time and the task of

the institute is to identify them, bring together scholars that can contribute to these problems, and

coordinate research activity and collaboration. The IMBS continues to represent the power of the social

sciences in contributing to cross-disciplinary research on campus. Our members alone come from at least

five UCI schools.

Our activities in the 2018-2019 academic year, reviewed in this annual report, display the scope, creativity

and importance of the work done through the IMBS. It will be evident that the cross-disciplinary nature of

the work, typically not well supported by the departmental system, creates spillovers for departments and

programs across UCI.

Overview. This year the IMBS held two major conferences, as well as the Luce graduate student

conference, 21 colloquia, 16 seminars, added 5 new members, and led the search for a new Falmagne Chair

and IMBS director. IMBS members held $22,921,282 of active grants during the year. We have also

forged connections with theoretical computer science, hosting seminars by Vijay Vazirani (ICS, UCI),

Nicole Immorlica (Microsoft Research), and Sid Banerjee (Cornell), as well as co-organizing talks with the

Algorithms, Combinatorics and Optimization (ACO) Center in ICS. We continue to search for the third

Falmagne chair, made possible by the generous gift by Dina and Jean-Claude Falmagne.

Active Research Fields. The work done by IMBS members is at the forefront of a large number of

emerging and rapidly evolving fields. Reviewed in Section II.D, this work includes veridicality in human

and artificial cognition (Zyg Pizlo), mathematical analyses of the spread of false beliefs (Cailin O’Connor

and James Weatherall), color cognition (Kimberly Jameson, Natalia Komarova, and Kim Romney), natural

language acquisition (Lisa Pearl, Gregory Scontras and Richard Futrell), cancer and virus dynamics

(Natalia Komarova), the evolution of social networks (Carter Butts), identity-based inequality (Cailin

O’Connor and Jean-Paul Carvalho), identity formation and extremism (Stergios Skaperdas, Mike McBride

and Jean-Paul Carvalho), control theory applied to biological systems (Steve Frank), spatial risk analysis

(Robin Keller), game decomposition (Don Saari), evolution and learning in games (Brian Skyrms, Simon

Huttegger and Louis Narens), algorithmic game theory (Vijay Vazirani), train arrival times (Tom

Trogdon), and behavioral biases in decision-making (Igor Kopylov).

Conferences. The IMBS hosted two major conferences during the year. Further details are contained in

Section V.

The first conference, titled ‘Formal Modeling and Analysis of Color Categorization; Innovations and

Insights Since Berlin and Kay (1969)’, was held on 2-3 November 2018. It was expertly organized by

Kimberly Jameson. Speakers were drawn from a highly interdisciplinary group of top-tier modelers and

researchers actively working in the area of color naming, categorization, and evolution, representing a

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variety of disciplines including Anthropology, Linguistics, Computer Science, Cognitive Science, Physics,

Robotics, and Logic and Philosophy of Science. UC Irvine, and the IMBS in particular, is at the

international center of the study of color categorization. This conference showcased the work going on at

UC Irvine, in particular the work of the outstanding mathematicians and cognitive scientists Kimberly

Jameson (IMBS), Natalia Komarova (Math, UCI), Nicole Fider (Math, UCI), Kirbi Joe (IMBS), and

Maryam Gooyabadi (IMBS). The field originated with the work of Brent Berlin and Paul Kay in 1969.

Paul Kay gave the opening talk at the conference. From there, the audience could see the evolution of the

field over time and the significant contributions made to it at UCI.

The second conference, titled ‘Cultural Evolution and Social Norms’, was held on 22-23 March 2019.

There is a remarkable convergence occurring between economics, anthropology, and evolutionary biology

in modeling human behavior and institutional change as the product of cultural evolution. This process of

cultural evolution includes the intergenerational accumulation of knowledge, the cultural transmission of

beliefs and preferences, and the evolution of social norms. Cultural evolution was first studied by

evolutionary biologists and ecologists and has more recently gained prominence in economics. This

conference brought together leading economists, evolutionary biologists, ecologists, anthropologists, and

philosophers to take stock of recent developments in modeling cultural evolution and identify new

directions for research. Topics include the emergence of cultural diversity, family structure, consumption

norms, economic underrepresentation, and the political economy of cultural movements. Speakers included

David Hirshleifer (Finance, UCI), Myrna Wooders (Econ, Vanderbilt), Alberto Bisin (Economics, NYU),

Rob Boyd (Anthropology, ASU), Nicole Creanza (Biology, Vanderbilt), Elena Miu (Anthropology, ASU),

Natalia Komarova (Math, UCI), Erol Akcay (Biology, U Penn), and Larry Iannaccone (Econ, Chapman).

Graduate Training. The PhD program with a concentration in Mathematical Behavioral Sciences had

nine students this year. IMBS graduate training activities are set out in section IV. Initiatives were made to

closely involve students in the Institute’s activities. In particular, I held fortnightly meetings with students

interested in game theory and social dynamics. As usual, students ran and mostly presented in the Friday

IMBS lunchtime seminar. The Luce Graduate Student Conference was held on 31 May 2019 and featured

eleven outstanding presentations by PhD students. Finally, the Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award

was won by Santiago Guisasola, who has gone on to a postdoctoral research position at the prestigious

Instituto National de Matemática Pura e Aplicada (IMPA) in Brazil.

Many of the students participating in IMBS events were from outside the MBS program, from departments

as diverse as mathematics, logic & philosophy of science, computer science, language science, economics,

political science and cognitive science. This provides some idea of the spillovers generated by the

interdisciplinary work nurtured by the IMBS.

Grants. IMBS members held $22,921,282 of active grants during the year. Most of these funds ran

through the members’ departments, as we have no incentive to have grants go through the IMBS (as we see

none of the overhead credited to us). Were this to change, we would have incentive to encourage members

to run grants through the IMBS and would make a vigorous push in this direction.

Challenges. The IMBS has had many illustrious members beginning with its Founding Director, Duncan

Luce. Today, our membership includes 7 National Academy Members (six from UCI and one from another

university). The present challenge is twofold. First, the IMBS is redefining the set of problems it is

working on, planning to coordinate activity around new problems, and raise awareness for its next

generation of work. Second, we are bringing together a new generation of talented and truly

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interdisciplinary scholars applying mathematics to the social and behavioral sciences. They include Lisa

Pearl (Professor and Chair, Language Science), Igor Kopylov (Associate Professor, Economics), Joachim

Vandekerckhove (Professor, Cognitive Sciences), Cailin O’Connor (Associate Professor, Logic &

Philosophy of Science), Ines Levin (Assistant Professor, Political Science), Gregory Scontras (Assistant

Professor, Language Science), and Richard Futrell (Assistant Professor, Language Science). Our aim is to

make the IMBS an intellectual home for them.

During the year, Stephan Jagau joined the IMBS as a postdoctoral researcher from the University of

Amsterdam. Stephan’s fields are psychological and evolutionary game theory and he is contributing

significantly to IMBS activities in these areas. We also added three new IMBS members this year.

I served as Interim Director from 2017-2019, following Don Saari’s retirement after 14 illustrious years as

Director. Zygmunt Pizlo has now taken over as Interim Director and is in charge of a crucial phase in the

transition process with a new Falmagne Chair being hired through the IMBS and preparation for the sunset

review taking place. Holding doctoral degrees in both engineering and cognitive sciences, he is uniquely

qualified to lead the next generation of work at the IMBS. Among other things, Zyg applies mathematical

principles drawn from human cognition to artificial intelligence. His work is an outstanding example of

how the social sciences can contribute to other disciplines, including engineering and computer science.

Finally, Joanna Kerner, the IMBS Administrator, has powered the institute for six years and is the reason

we have been able to accomplish so much. She deserves our unreserved gratitude and praise. Joanna is

retiring this month and we wish her all the very best for a bright and happy future. I would like to

personally thank Joanna for making my time as Interim Director so smooth and enjoyable.

We look forward to another exciting and productive academic year.

Sincerely,

Jean-Paul Carvalho

Interim Director, IMBS, 2017-2019

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I. ORGANIZATION AND ADMINISTRATION

A. Administration

The Interim Director of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences is Associate

Professor Jean-Paul Carvalho. He reports both to the Dean of the School of Social Sciences and

to the Vice-Chancellor for Research. An Executive Committee for consultation and decision-

making regarding the long-term direction of the Institute assists the Director, (section B below).

The staff of the Director’s office consists of one Administrator, Joanna Kerner. Presently,

some bookkeeping and personnel matters are being taken care of by the School of Social

Sciences.

Interim Director Jean-Paul Carvalho, 2017- 2019

Previous Directors: Donald G. Saari, 2003-2017,

William H. Batchelder, 1999-2003

R. Duncan Luce, Founding Director, 1989-1998

Graduate Director: Louis Narens

Administrator: Joanna Kerner

B. Executive Committee 2018-19

Carter Butts, Professor of Sociology

John Duffy, Professor of Economics

Larry Iannaccone, Professor of Economics, Chapman University

Zyg Pizlo, Professor of Cognitive Sciences

Brian Skyrms, Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science

Hongkai Zhao, Professor of Mathematics

II. RESEARCH

A. Current Research Programs

There are 71 members of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences (IMBS) and

their research interests are listed in Appendix A.

The IMBS is roughly partitioned into five research clusters. These are listed below and

should be considered as informal intellectual groupings, rather than formal structures.

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Measurement Theory, Foundational Issues, and Scaling Models:

Barrett, Burton, Falmagne, Maddy, Narens, Romney, Skyrms, and Weatherall

Statistical Modeling:

Cognitive: Baldi, Dosher, Eppstein, Falmagne, Iverson, Lee, Pearl, Romney,

Scontras, Smyth, Steyvers, Trogdon, and Yellott

Economic: Brownstone, Poirier, and Saari

Sociological/Anthropological: Boyd, Butts, Faust, and White

Individual Decision Making: Birnbaum, Keller, Kopylov, Machina, Narens, and Saari

Perceptions and Psychophysics:

Vision: Braunstein, Chubb, D’Zmura, Hoffman, Iverson, Jameson, Palais, Pizlo,

Romney, Sperling, Srinivasan, Wright, Xin, Yellott, and Zhao

Psychophysics and Response Times: Brownstone, Falmagne, Iverson, Jameson,

Narens, and Yellott

Social and Economic Phenomena:

Economics and Game Theory: Branch, Brownstone, Brueckner, Burton,

Carvalho, Duffy, Frank, Garfinkel, Komarova, Kopylov, Levin, McBride,

O’Connor, Poirier, Saari, Skaperdas, Skyrms, and Vazirani.

Public Choice: Carvalho, Cohen, Glazer, Grofman, Kaminski, Keller, Taagepera,

and Uhlaner

Social Networks: Boyd, Butts, Faust, Noymer, Romney, Vazirani, and White

Social Dynamics and Evolution: Butts, Carvalho, Frank, Huttegger, Narens,

Romney, Saari, Skyrms, Smyth, Stern, and White

B. Publications

The members who have replied report a total of 144 journal publications (published or in press) for the current academic year. These are listed in Appendix B. The IMBS has a technical report series that is available to all members and qualified graduate students who are submitting a paper to a refereed journal or book. The series editor is Jean-Paul Carvalho. Appendix C lists the technical reports issued during the academic year. Technical reports since 1993 can be found under “printed resources” on the Institute’s web site at http://www.imbs.uci.edu/research/technical.php.

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C. Public Talks and Colloquia

IMBS members actively participated in numerous off-campus research seminars and conferences. The members who replied gave a total of 143 talks listed in Appendix D. Their awards and achievements for this year can be found in Appendix E.

D. Summaries of Research Findings

An important aspect of the Institute is the research conclusions developed by its members. What follows is a sample of what has happened this year.

Measurement Theory, Foundational Issues, and Scaling Models

Louis Narens

My research this year consisted primarily of creating and finishing a book, The Pursuit Of

Happiness, with IMBS member Brian Skyrms, to be published by Oxford University Press. We

are currently preparing the final version of the manuscript for printing. Other research efforts

consisted of doing preliminary research for and submitting a $8,000,000 grant proposal to the US

Army. It was interdisciplinary consisting of engineers and psychologists. I was one of the 5 PIs;

he other 4 were from four other universities. I also supervised an educational project consisting of

8 MDP undergraduates from computer science and engineering who received grants from UCI to

conduct research with me. I mentored 3 graduate students on their research projects. I was

Graduate Director of the Mathematical Behavioral Sciences PhD Program during the year.

Statistical Modeling

Michael Lee

My research involves the development, evaluation, and application of models of cognition

including representation, memory, learning, and decision making, with a special focus on

individual differences and collective cognition. Much of my research uses naturally occurring

behavioral data, and tries to pursue a solution-oriented approach to empirical science, in which the

research questions are generated from real-world problems. My methods involve probabilistic

generative modeling, and Bayesian methods of computational analysis.

Lisa Pearl

A related set of findings concerns how the cognitively immature minds of children solve the

various tasks involved in native language learning (called language acquisition). Pearl (under

review) describes how considerations of language acquisition are intimately related to Poverty of

the Stimulus, a problem that concerns the data available to children to learn from, and a problem

that’s been at the center of ferocious debate in psychology, linguistics, and philosophy for

decades. In Pearl (under review), I synthesize quantitative approaches to addressing Poverty of the

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Stimulus, and discuss how mathematical modeling allows us to both make our theoretical

assumptions about language acquisition concrete and also evaluate proposed solutions to the

Poverty of the Stimulus.

Pearl (in press) discusses how computational and mathematical modeling are also invaluable tools

for scientists who want to understand the language acquisition strategies that children use for

learning language structure, known as syntax. This is because modeling provides a way to

concretely realize a theory about a learning strategy, apply that strategy to realistic language data,

and see the results of the learning strategy. This approach can be used for a wide range of

syntactic phenomena and offers insights that cannot be found by using theoretical or experimental

methods alone.

In line with this idea, Pearl (in press) considers how the quantitative techniques used for

investigating language acquisition in children learning a single language (that is, monolingual

development) can be harnessed to understand the language knowledge of heritage language

speakers. Heritage language speakers are bilingual speakers who speak a dominant language (for

example, English in the US) as well as a non-dominant language (such as Spanish or Vietnamese)

typically spoken by their family or community, who have native level proficiency. Importantly,

heritage language speakers don’t have native level proficiency in their heritage language, and the

exact nature of the language knowledge they have is hotly debated. Pearl (in press) describes how,

the same quantitative techniques used to understand monolingual language knowledge in children

can be applied in exactly the same way to uncover heritage language knowledge in heritage

language speakers of any age. This opens up a wealth of investigative possibilities that will lead to

a deeper understanding of heritage language knowledge.

Pearl (2019) considers how emerging computational techniques involving non-symbolic

representations (and the models that use those representations, recursive neural networks (RNNs))

could be used to spur symbolic theory generation. The key is that the non-symbolic

representations, being non-symbolic, are extremely difficult for us to interpret symbolically -- but

they way we form (and verbalize) theories is itself symbolic. So why should we bother to try

doing anything like this with non-symbolic representations? Because non-symbolic

representations have recently proven to be extremely effective in natural language processing

tasks that involve complex language understanding. Therefore, it’s useful to consider how we

could leverage these non-symbolic techniques to better capture linguistic knowledge,

development, and use. In Pearl (2019), I propose one way to do this, inspired by evolutionary

computation, where the model (here, an RNN) is given some key building blocks and is left to its

own devices, with the goal of finding the best answer it can. This approach may well offer

symbolic theory makers in language science a useful tool for uncovering new ways of thinking

about the shape of linguistic knowledge.

A finding by Pearl & Sprouse (in press) concerns how children integrate different types of

information when learning the linguistic behavior of verbs. In particular, verbs differ by the

syntactic frames they can be used in and how their arguments are interpreted. For example, while

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both try and seem can be used in the frame The penguin ___ to climb the hill, only seem can be

used in the frame It ___ that the penguin climbed the hill. As another example, both melt and

climb can be used in the intransitive frame X ___ (The ice melted, The penguin climbed).

However, the interpretation of the subject is different for each verb: in The ice melted, something

is happening to the ice; in The penguin climbed, nothing is happening to the penguin — instead

the penguin is doing something. Children learn these verb behaviors by inferring abstract classes

of verbs, where each verb class has a distinct collection of behaviors. To do this, children draw on

both syntactic cues (like syntactic frames) and conceptual cues (like animacy and event roles). By

using a Bayesian framework to formally model different theories of how children integrate these

information sources to learn verb classes, we were able to articulate the trajectory of learning

assumptions children are likely to have from three to five years old. This trajectory suggests there

are different timelines for ignoring vs. heeding surface morphology on verbs (like the past tense -

ed in English), for a simpler vs. more flexible event role representation, and for not expecting vs.

expecting a mapping between that event role representation and syntactic positions like subject,

object, and indirect object. From a theoretical standpoint, it suggests that a mapping between

event roles and syntactic positions is not present in younger children, and so is less likely to be

something built into Universal Grammar (the innate, language-specific knowledge children utilize

to learn their native languages so rapidly and so effectively).

In follow-up work, Pearl & Sprouse (under revision) investigate how English children might learn

the correct mapping between event roles and syntactic positions by five years old, given the data

they encounter. Using a formal quantitative metric that determines an exact threshold when

children will make a generalization from noisy data, we find that only certain theories of how

children represent event roles will allow the correct generalization to happen. In particular, if

children assume fixed event role categories where, for example, category_1 always maps to the

highest syntactic position (and so on), the data English children encounter will be far too noisy for

them to generalize a mapping. In contrast, if children assume a relative ordering among event

roles, where the higher event role present -- whichever one that may happen to be -- maps to a

higher syntactic position, the data English children encounter are amenable to generalizing the

mapping correctly. This more theoretically-oriented work provides developmental support for a

relativized approach to event role representations, rather than an absolute fixed one -- a hotly

debated topic within the theoretical linguistics literature.

Bates & Pearl (2019, in prep.) also investigate the development of complex syntactic knowledge,

this time considering the impact of socioeconomic status (SES) on the relevant syntactic input. In

particular, there are known differences in the quantity and quality of child-directed speech across

SES. We investigate wh-dependency constraints, known as syntactic islands, as a concrete case

where quantity and quality of high-SES child-directed speech was previously assessed by Pearl &

Sprouse (2013). Using quantitative analysis and cognitive modeling to assess low-SES CDS

samples, we find that low-SES children’s complex syntactic input, in terms of wh-dependencies,

is quantitatively and qualitatively similar to that of high-SES children: the wh-dependencies (i)

have similar distributions in the high-SES and low-SES input samples, and (ii) would allow a low-

SES child to successfully acquire knowledge of the same syntactic islands that a high-SES child

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would from high-SES input. Interestingly, at least one key building block for syntactic island

knowledge comes from a different source in low-SES children’s input, but is crucially still

present. This suggests that the linguistic evidence for more complex syntactic knowledge like

syntactic islands, in contrast with more foundational linguistic knowledge, may not differ by SES.

Nguyen & Pearl (2019) use corpus analysis and mathematical modeling to investigate how

children come to understand the passive construction in English. For example, at three, children

can understand “Alex was hugged by Emma” but struggle to correctly understand “Alex was

loved by Emma” until age five. Previous work by Ngyuen & Pearl (2018) suggested that the

meaning of verbs (called their lexical semantics) likely played a significant role in when children

learned the passive for different verbs. Nguyen & Pearl (2019) developed a Bayesian cognitive

model which predicted when children would be able to understand the passive of a particular verb,

based on a verb’s lexical semantics and the relative frequency of its lexical semantic components

in children’s input. This model was evaluated against behavioral data from five-year-old children

understanding (or not understanding) the passive for different verbs, and our findings revealed

that five-year-olds actually ignore many salient lexical semantic components of a given verb.

They focus on a few very subtle components, and use that to determine whether a particular verb

is understandable in the passive. This kind of selective attention in children accords with other

work in language development, where selective attention is vital for children to navigate through

all the available information in their input and pull out just the right pieces.

Forsythe & Pearl (in prep.) use mathematical modeling to help determine what cognitive

processes underlie children’s non-adult behavior when interpreting pronouns. For example,

children and adults can differ when interpreting her in The girl hugged the waitress before she left

(that is, who left? The girl or the waitress?). One reason for this is that there are many different

cues available to help interpret pronouns in context, and children may differ from adults in either

the representation of these cues or how they’re able to deploy those cue representations in real

time. Behavioral work can often show that children and adults differ, but are unable to pinpoint

why -- is it because children’s representations differ, or because children can’t deploy the correct

representations quickly enough? Using mathematical modeling, Forsythe & Pearl (in prep.) tease

apart these options in concrete Bayesian models, and find that children’s non-adult pronoun

interpretation is likely caused by not being able to deploy the correct representations in time. This

suggests that, as children mature, they gain the cognitive resources to deploy the correct

representations quickly enough. Moreover, our results predict that tasks which ease the difficulty

of knowledge deployment should allow children to produce more adult-like behavior — and this

is a testable prediction.

A finding in the area of natural language processing concerns automatic detection of deception in

text across different content domains, such as product reviews, emotionally-charged topics such as

the death penalty, and interview questions. Current automatic deception detection approaches tend

to rely on cues that are based either on specific lexical items or on linguistically abstract features

that are not necessarily motivated by the psychology of deception. Notably, while approaches

relying on such features can do well when the content domain is similar for training and testing,

they suffer when content changes occur. Vogler & Pearl (in press) investigates new linguistically-

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defined features that aim to capture specific details, a psychologically-motivated aspect of truthful

vs. deceptive language that may be distinctive across content domains. To ascertain the potential

utility of these features, we evaluate them on datasets representing a broad sample of deceptive

language, using both standard statistical analysis and as part of a deception detection classifier.

We find that these linguistically-defined specific detail features are most useful for cross-domain

deception detection when the training data differ significantly in content from the test data, and

particularly benefit classification accuracy on deceptive documents.

Another finding in natural language processing concerns automatic sentiment analysis; the

simplest version of sentiment analysis is to determine whether a text is positive or negative.

Negation words -- that is, words like not -- often disrupt state-of-the-art approaches, and most

negation-handling strategies don’t take into account the meaning of the content being negated.

Yet, words with the same basic sentiment score (such as nice and beautiful, which are perceived

as equally positive) can have very different sentiment when negated: not nice is perceived as far

more negative than not beautiful. Pearl, Yuen, & Hii (in prep.) consider the specificity of a word

or phrase’s meaning; we investigate automatically-extractable heuristics of how specific a word

is, such as its frequency of use (less frequent words may be more specific) and how varied the

contexts are that it appears in (words that appear in more narrow contexts may be more specific).

We find that incorporating meaning specificity into negation handling is beneficial in “hard”

cases, where improper negation handling leads to the opposite sentiment (for example, a negative

review being labeled as positive). This kind of error is immediately noticeable to humans, and is

best handled by our linguistically-informed strategy.

Gregory Scontras

(a) Adjective ordering preferences: Speakers have robust preferences for the

relative order of adjectives in multi-adjective strings (e.g., big blue box vs. blue

big box ). My re- search investigates the factors that predict these preferences

and the pressures that deliver them. Previously, I had shown that in English an

adjective’s distance from the modified noun is predicted by the adjective’s

meaning: less subjective adjectives are preferred closer to the noun. Last year, I

documented similar preferences in Tagalog, but failed to find any ordering

preferences in Spanish. This year, I have followed up on this finding both

empirically and computationally. Empirically, I have documented similar

preferences in Arabic and Mandarin, further supporting the cross-linguistic

robustness of the subjectivity generalization, and ruling out post-nominal

adjectives as a likely source for the absence of preferences in Spanish (Spanish

has post-nominal adjectives but no preferences; Arabic has post-nominal

adjectives and stable preferences). Computationally, I have simulated simple

reference games and evaluated the relative success of subjectivity-based orders.

The results demonstrate how subjectivity-based ordering preferences maximizes

communicative success, thereby offering an evolutionary perspective on the

emergence of these preferences.

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(b) The added informativity of ambiguous utterances: Traditionally, linguists

have treated ambiguity as a bug in the communication system, something to be

avoided or explained away. More recent research has taken notice of the efficiency

ambiguity affords us. This year, I have been working with researchers at the

University of Tubingen to explore an additional benefit of using ambiguous

language: the extra information we gain from observing how our listeners resolve

ambiguity. We propose that language users learn about each other’s private

knowledge (from a Bayesian perspective, their priors) by observing how they

resolve ambiguity. If language does not do the job of specifying the information

necessary for full interpretation, then listeners are left to draw on their private

knowledge— opinions, beliefs, and preferences—to fill in the gaps; by observing

how listeners fill those gaps in, speakers learn about the private knowledge of their

listeners. We have implemented this hypothesis as a computational model within

the Bayesian Rational Speech Act modeling framework. We are now testing our

hypothesis by using the model to predict behavioral data from naive

participants.

(c) Modeling language change in aspectual systems: Languages with two

markers of imperfective aspect generally feature an imperfective form (e.g.,

John eats cake) and a progressive form (e.g., John is eating cake). Curiously,

these two grammatical forms—imperfective and progressive—are commonly

related in the historical development of a lan- guage: languages with a single

imperfective marker grammaticalize new progressive markers that ultimately

broaden in interpretation and displace the older imperfective. The question that

arises is what drives the progressive-to-imperfective shift such that we commonly

find it cross-linguistically. I have been working with researchers at Harvard

University to develop an information-theoretic answer to this question that we

cash out in terms of pragmatic reasoning about shifting utterance costs. Our

proposal gets articulated as a computational cognitive model of language

understanding, formalized within the Rational Speech Act mod- eling framework.

Drawing our inspiration from previous game-theoretic models of the shift, we show

how both production behavior (i.e., frequency of use) and comprehension behavior

(i.e., the interpretations available) can change as a function of utterance costs.

Thus, we show how semantic change may be a function of changes in utterance

cost—a reflection of morphological complexity or frequency-of-use—as it relates

to pragmatic reasoning about language.

Sociological/Anthropological

Carter Butts

One growing threat to the health of our aging population is the increasing prevalence of diseases

brought about by protein aggregation. Proteins are an essential part of our biology, giving

structure to our bodies, performing essential chemistry, and even acting as signals and “switches”

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that allow our cells to process information and react to environmental changes. Sometimes,

however, proteins go rogue, folding into non-functional oligomers and larger aggregates that

disrupt normal biological processes and in some cases kill cells. Such aggregation is the

underlying mechanism behind a wide range of diseases, including Alzheimer’s, Lewy Body

Dementia, prion disease, and type II diabetes. Many of these illnesses are invariably fatal, and

none of them can be cured. To address this challenge, we must understand the processes that

govern protein aggregation, allowing us to identify treatments that can disrupt or reverse it.

Unfortunately, this is easier said than done: protein aggregation is a slow, path-dependent, and

complex process that is difficult to study even under laboratory conditions. The difficulty in

experimentally characterizing aggregation strongly motivates theoretical treatment, particularly

computational modeling that can provide insight into the mechanisms that may be driving the

process. However, this too is easier said than done: the large number of atoms and vast timescales

involved in the aggregation process place it out of reach of conventional atomistic and ab initio

molecular dynamics methods, and the complex and sometimes irregular structures formed by

during aggregation are poorly characterized by the conventional representations used by structural

biologists to study well-folded proteins. My group (in collaboration with the Martin lab) has

taken a radical approach to this problem, applying network analytic models and methods

originally developed to study social structures to the study of protein aggregation. In a recently

published paper in the Journal of Physical Chemistry, we apply our network analytic approach to

the study of amyloid fibrils, the aggregates centrally involved in Alzheimer’s, Lewy Body, and

other dementias (among many other diseases). Developing a new typological framework for

studying fibril structure, we show that all fibrils solved in the literature to date fall into one of

only five topological classes, allowing us to provide the first systematic typology of amyloid fibril

structures. To model fibril formation, we adapt a network modeling approach – exponential

family random graph models – originally developed to study social ties such as friendship or

sexual contacts to the bonds that hold proteins together. We show that a simple, low-dimensional

family of models can reproduce all known fibril types, as well as new types not yet

experimentally observed. We also extend our model to study fibril kinetics, allowing us to

examine the complex pathways characterizing the aggregation process itself. Due to the

computational efficiency of our approach, we are able to model aggregation processes involving

hundreds or thousands of monomers corresponding to days or weeks of real time in minutes or

hours of simulation time on a laptop. (By contrast, a microsecond long simulation of even a

single protein monomer using standard molecular dynamics techniques can take days or weeks on

a high performance, GPU-enabled server.) Central to our approach is an exploitation of the deep

mathematical connections between the exponential family random graph models developed by

statisticians and social scientists and the statistical mechanical models that are a linchpin of

modern chemistry and condensed matter physics. Social scientists have long had to develop

creative ways to simplify the complexity of the social world while still preserving its most

important features; these same methods can be adapted to biophysical systems, giving us a

rigorous way of treating complex problems in this domain while retaining computational

tractability. Our work in this area has not only provided a new avenue for characterizing and

modeling disease-relevant protein systems, but has also led to insights into the behavior of

network models that have been brought back (in a recent paper in Journal of Mathematical

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Sociology) to the study of social networks. While it is common to acknowledge contributions of

the physical and biological sciences to the social sciences, our work provides a true example of

how the mathematical social sciences can contribute to fundamental advances in the physical and

biological sciences.

Note: a video highlighting this research can also be found at

https://www.dropbox.com/s/plcznv1461x80vp/FibrilTopologyMovie.mp4?dl=0

Individual Decision-Making

Robin Keller

When environmental or societal outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of

spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One

of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial

nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial

measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We

also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how

such functions can be assessed and applied.

Citation: L. Robin Keller and Jay Simon (Merage alumnus), January 2019, “Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis”, Risk Analysis, vol

.39, issue 1, pp. 244-256, in Special Issue: Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis, accepted 7-31-17, submitted 6-2016, Version of Record appeared

online in early view prior to print: Sept. 7, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12892.

Igor Kopylov

This year I published a paper “Subjective Probabilities and Confidence When Facts are

Forgotten” in Journal of Risk and Uncertainty (jointly with J. Miller from University of

Melbourne). I have also received and submitted a revise and resubmit at the Journal of Economic

Theory on the paper “Comparative Ignorance and Context-Dependent Ambiguity Aversion”. The

revision has simplified some of my previous results to the case when ambiguity aversion is

affected by comparative ignorance and other context-dependent effects.

Second, I have finished and submitted a draft “Minimal Rationalizations” where I have obtained a

full classification of multi-utility models with any given number of types and together with some

uniqueness claims. Multi-utility models can be used to fit incomplete choice data in several

distinct ways. I have presented this work at Georgetown University, two conferences, and IMBS

seminar.

Third, I have progressed on two projects that are joint with PhD students Erya Yang from the

Economics Department and Duke Chowdhury from the Business school. Both projects employ the

students’ coding skills to implement some theoretical algorithms in choice theory to simulated and

real data.

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Perception and Psychophysics

Kimberly A. Jameson

During the past academic year Kimberly A. Jameson, as Project Scientist in the Institute for

Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, has achieved substantial recent scientific research advances

and scholarly service and activity to the IMBS. Jameson is a active member of the IMBS, actively

conducting interdisciplinary research that is both translational and at the core of our mission; she

continues to apply and obtain intra- and extramural funding for her research; she continues

advising MBS PhD students and campus-wide honors undergraduates, as well as medical school

interns in the UCI School of Medicine; she serves as Director of the Color Cognition Laboratory

in the IMBS; and continues to actively connect IMBS scholars in collaborative activities with

internationally recognized scientists from campus, industry and abroad.

During the past year she has innovated novel methods and carried out important research on

cognitive and perceptual processing of sensory domains, and in particular, the visual processing of

environmental color stimuli. Jameson's work is well published in peer-reviewed scientific

journals and has additionally been featured in popular science publications in the international

print and television media. In addition to her recent media exposure featured by series such as

The Nature of Things, BBC, Discover Magazine, Canal+, KPBS, since her last review segments

featuring Jameson's research have been filmed by Canadian Documentary Producers the

Montreal-based Human+ Production series.

Jameson spearheaded the formation of the Color Cognition Group in the IMBS, which is one of

the leading groups in the area of formal modeling and experimental study of color perception. In

keeping with the mission of the IMBS, Jameson's group brings together faculty and students from

across campus (including the School of Medicine, Gavin Herbert Eye Institute and School of

Engineering's Calit2) to work on challenging problems yielding general insights into human and

artificial intelligence and cross-cultural differences in cognition.

UCI Colleagues and Students who actively collaborate with Jameson on the topics supported by

the Color Cognition Group include:

(1) Prof. Andrew Browne MD PhD, Prof., UCI School of Medicine & Gavin Herbert Eye

Institute, UCI. (2) Prof. M. Cristina Kenney MD PhD, UCI School of Medicine & Gavin Herbert

Eye Institute, UCI. (3) Shari Atilano MS, UCI School of Medicine. (4) Adriana Briscoe PhD,

EcoEvo, Prof., School of Biological Sciences, UCI. (5) Sergio Gago PhD, Lecturer, Informatics,

Calit2, UCI. (6) Emeritus Prof. A. Kimball Romney PhD, IMBS, UCI. (7) Timothy Satalich PhD,

Research Associate, IMBS, UCI. (8) Kirbi Joe, IMBS PhD student, UCI.

Jameson also continues to engage in collaborative research with internationally recognized

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experts in areas that support her IMBS research interests. These include maintaining systematic

research efforts, and fostering training and collaborative opportunities for MBS students and

colleagues with:

Prof. Vladimir Bochko, Department of Electrical Engineering and Energy Technology, University

of Vaasa, Finland.

Prof. Lorne Whitehead, University of British Columbia, Canada, and Chair of the Lighting

Standards division of the International Commission on Illumination.

Prof. Michael Webster, Foundation Professor of Psychology, University of Nevada, Reno.

Prof. Ulf Dietrich-Reips, Professor of Internet Science, Department of Psychology, University of

Konstanz, Germany.

Apart from her interdisciplinary research, Jameson has made numerous outstanding contributions

to the profession. As PI on her recent NSF funded project Jameson has brought to completion a

large-scale public access database which is a novel contribution for cross-cultural color research

and data-analytics that is now available as a resource to the general academic research community

(https://colcat.calit2.uci.edu). Jameson continues to serve as a reviewer of both scientific journal

articles, proposals for extramural funding, student honors and degree thesis, and on IMBS

postdoctoral and hiring committees. Jameson continues to serve as special editor in journals and

encyclopedias in her area of research expertise, and is now serving as an Editor for the new

journal Elements in Perception, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

doi:10.1017/9781108582995.

In November 2018 Jameson organized and carried out one of more highly successful two-day

IMBS conferences entitled “The Formal Modeling and Analysis of Color Categorization:

Innovations and Insights since Berlin and Kay (1969)”. As promised, the conference talks and

discussion presented a transformative understanding of the cognitive and social bases for color

categorization and in doing so contributed broader insights into human and artificial cognition.

The conference successfully blended leading researchers from a number of fields including

Anthropology, Linguistics, Computer Science, Cognitive Science, Physics, Robotics, and Logic

and Philosophy of Science.

The ultimate aims this IMBS conference satisfied included: (1) Providing a comprehensive view

of the state of the art in color categorization research, taking stock of advances since Berlin and

Kay’s (1969) seminal work, "Basic Color Terms: Their Universality and Evolution.” (2)

Establishing a common research agenda in color categorization, producing new collaborations,

and coordinating research efforts across a large number of diverse fields. (3) Introducing new

theoretical approaches to the area developed in the IMBS at UC Irvine, including computational

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approaches to learning color categorization systems based on concepts/techniques from

evolutionary game theory. (4) Publicizing new data sources, including UC Irvine’s ColCat Color

Categorization Archive.

And (5) generalizing the insights from color categorization to produce new approaches to human

and artificial cognition. The conference was extremely well-attended, by not only research

scientists advancing novel approaches in the area, but also American and National Academy of

Sciences members whom originated of the field in 1969. (see talks at

https://youtu.be/DYQ0jMiZlns).

During her ongoing affiliation with IMBS, Jameson has participated in the IMBS colloquium and

graduate lunch series, given research presentations at IMBS sponsored conferences, engaged with

other IMBS members interactively to involve research professionals from local industry and from

other research universities, directed the Color Cognition Research group series in IMBS, provided

career advice and academic assistance to both graduate and undergraduate students in the Social

Sciences, and has been involved in daily research collaborations with several members of the UCI

School of Social Sciences, School of Medicine and School of Engineering.

Zyg Pizlo

Human subjects are known to produce near-optimal tours in the Traveling Salesman Problem

(TSP), and they do it in time that is, on average, a linear function of the number of cities. In most

prior experiments, the cities were points on a Euclidean plane. The subjects treat TSP as a visual

problem and solve it using a multiscale pyramid representation of the problem. Such a pyramid

representation exists in the human brain. However, this pyramid is built on top of a distorted map

of the visual stimulus that exists in the primary visual area (area V1) of the brain. Specifically, the

representation in area V1 is a complex-log map, which is a member of conformal maps. So, I

asked a question as to whether the human mind solves the problem in the Euclidean representation

on the retina in the subject’s eye, or in the complex-log representation in the brain? The subjects

are convinced that they solve the problem in the Euclidean representation that is presented to her.

Our computational models, when compared to empirical results, suggest that the mind solves the

problem in the complex-log map. This is similar to our results in another class of visual tasks,

namely, integrating closed contours in noisy images. All this suggests that logarithmic functions,

complex variables and the constant “e”, which is the base of a natural logarithm, have all been

discovered by Nature, well before mathematicians re-discovered them.

Next, I showed that humans can produce near-optimal TSP tours when the metric is not

Euclidean. This has been demonstrated in TSP where the cities are on the Euclidean plane in the

presence of obstacles. Because of the obstacles, the pairwise geodesics are not always straight

lines because the subject has to go around obstacles. In a preliminary study, I showed that this

representation is transformed to a Euclidean approximation by means of a Multidimensional

Scaling (MDS). The subjects apparently solve the two-dimensional (2D) problem with obstacles

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by using a 2D or 3D Euclidean approximation. These results provide a very strong test for the

perceptual relevance of MDS.

In my third line of research, I discussed the role of symmetry in perception and cognition.

Physicists have recognized, during the last 100 years, that Natural Science would be impossible

without the invariance and symmetry of Natural Laws. In fact, without symmetry and invariance it

would not make any sense to talk about the Natural Laws, in the first place. I pointed out, in my

recent paper published in the American Journal of Psychology, that the absence of these two

concepts in theories of perception and cognition is surprising and hard to justify. The only way to

explain this omission is to recognize the dominant role of empiricism in social sciences during the

last 200 years. If the human mind were a tabula rasa at birth, and it is not, then one would not

expect any invariance in cognitive laws: each person, with his or her individual life story, would

be operating according to idiosyncratic mechanisms that had been learned over their lifespan. If

true, this would make the science of the human mind nearly impossible. The fact that all humans

actually see the 3D environment the same way, a fact that has received strong support in my

recent experiments, makes it possible to organize Cognitive Science around the concept of

invariance, paving a way to a unified Natural Science. Invariance (symmetry) in the Natural

Laws, allowed Emmy Noether (1918) to derive conservation laws in physics through the

application of a least-action principle. This celebrated theorem has its analogy in perception and

cognition, a theoretical fact demonstrated in my recent writings.

Social and Economic Phenomena

Jan K. Brueckner

A cartoon in Harvey Rosen's public finance textbook, shows an Air Force general pointing to a

diagram of a jet fighter and saying: ``At last! A weapons system absolutely impervious to attack:

It has components manufactured in all 435 congressional districts!" At first, one might think this

statement is about ``pork-barrel" politics, where taxes raised at the national level support local

spending that only benefits individual jurisdictions. But since defense spending is valued by the

entire country, the general is not making a pork- barrel statement at all, but is instead talking

about something different: local production of a national public good. His point is that local

production of defense components builds overall support for national defense by raising local

incomes, which in turns makes widespread distribution of production desirable from the

Pentagon's point of view.

My recent (coauthored) research provides a theoretical analysis of this phenomenon along with

empirical evidence. The key feature of the model is that the level of the national public good

equals the sum of the levels produced in the various jurisdictions. This assumption is roughly

accurate for production of fighter planes, and it is perhaps even more accurate for research grants.

The model also makes explicit how public production generates local income. Taking this income

effect into account, the analysis then portrays the political struggle in the national legislature over

the assignment of production to jurisdictions, which is resolved by imposition of the wishes of a

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``minimum winning coalition." In the model, this coalition assigns each of its member

jurisdictions a larger production share than the shares given to nonmembers (which may be zero),

and it also sets the level of the national public good (which, together with the production share,

determines a jurisdiction's output).

The analysis generates two notable efficiency verdicts: production of the national public good is

inefficiently concentrated instead of equally (and optimally) divided across jurisdictions; and the

level of the good is inefficiently high relative to the optimal level, which arises with equal

production shares. These results are entirely new to the literature.

John P. Boyd

1. I am applying an advanced algebraic techniques, Gröbner Bases, to generalize the

Spearman's law of tetrads and Kelley's law of pentads. The goal here is also to determine

the dimensionality of data.

2. A.K.Romney and I are using orthogonal polynomials, the so-called Jacobi polynomials, to

efficiently describe color vision.

3. I am exploring a new idea in log-linear models that is less restrictive than quasi-

independence. This will be used in a model testing regular equivence.

Jean-Paul Carvalho

This year I was Interim Director of the Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences.

I was appointed to the boards of the Association for the Study of Economics, Religion & Culture

(ASREC) and the Association for Analytic Learning about Islam & Muslim Societies (AALIMS),

and made a ‘core’ member of the Network for Economic Research on Identity, Norms and

Narratives (ERINN).

I also served as Chair of the recruitment for the Falmagne Chair.

Steve Frank

I have for many years been working on understanding measurement and pattern from an

invariance (symmetry) perspective. This year, I developed several significant applications of the

underlying theory, which I think will help a wider audience understand the fundamental

importance of this topic. The next section lists the citations. For each citation, I also provide a link

to an abstract that you can look at if you are interested in seeing what was accomplished.

I continued my long interest in the theory of natural selection. From an abstract perspective,

natural selection has many interesting relations to fundamental equations in other areas of science.

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I was able to tie much of that together n the “Price equation program” article listed in the next

section.

Bernie Grofman

As I noted in previous reports I have previously served twice as a Special Master for a federal

court. Being chosen as a Special Master by a federal court is the highest distinction a political

science voting rights specialist can receive. I am pleased to report that in 2018-19 I was asked to

serve for the third time as a Special Master in a case involving a finding of racial gerrymandering

in eleven districts of the lower chamber of the Virginia state legislature (the House of Delegates).

To remedy this racial gerrymander the plan I proposed to the Court redrew 26 districts in the state

(the eleven unconstitutional districts, plus a number of adjacent districts). That plan is being used

in the 2019 election.

I am also pleased to report that the plans I drew in 2018 for School Board and County

Supervisor elections in the tiny county of San Juan, Utah, which has a Native American

population majority, resulted in 2018 in Native American candidates serving on a majority of the

County supervisorial and school districts for the first time ever, while the 2018 congressional

election in Virginia in the plan I drew in 2015 for the federal court continued to provide electoral

success to two African-American candidates.

I am the senior author of an Amicus Brief in two consolidated court cases involving challenges to

partisan gerrymandering: Grofman, Bernard and Keith Gaddie. Amicus Brief on Behalf of

Neither Party in Rucho v. Common Cause (North Carolina) and Lamone v. Benisek (Maryland) , Nos. 18-422, 18-726 , U.S. Supreme Court, filed February 12, 2019.

An important part of my research contribution as Peltason Chair involves international outreach

and collaboration, making linkages to political science and economics departments and individual

scholars abroad. My activities in 2018-19 in five countries (UK, Israel, Russia, Italy, Germany)

were typical of this effort: including time spent as a Visiting Scholar-in-Residence, Nuffield

College, Oxford University for two weeks in September 2018; presenting a paper at the Annual

Meeting of the European Public Choice Society in Jerusalem in April 2019; presenting a paper at

the Twelfth Annual Conference on Economic Development at the Higher School of Economics in

Moscow in April 2019, and giving a seminar in the Economics Department of the Higher School

of Economics in Nizhny, Novgorod, Russia in April; giving a seminar in the Political Science

Department of the University of Siena in May, 2019; and giving a seminar in the Economics

Department of the University of Bayreuth in May 2019.

Marek Kaminski

Most of my recent work has been connected to the topic of electoral reform and the comparison of

single-member districts (SMDs) versus Proportional Representation (PR) systems. In a most

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recent article published in Public Choice, I extend formally the concept of a “spoiler” to PR

systems and investigate how spoilers affected Polish politics between 1991 and 2015.

Andrew Noymer

I work on demography, with an emphasis on health in general and mortality in particular. The

human population is a complex system in constant motion among many dimensions; as such, my

work fits very well in the IMBS rubric. My work in the recent past has focused on long run

changes in life expectancy and on infectious disease dynamics. Since the last edition of the IMBS

annual report I have also published methodological work on using convex hulls for the analysis of

spread in demographic data.

Don Saari

My activities this year emphasized the following:I finished writing my book on the “Math of

Finance.” It was adopted by Springer and it will be published in September, 2019.

Dan Jessie and I continued our work on creating coordinate systems for games. The idea is that

there are so many interesting games, where a typical analysis has an ad hoc flavor of

concentrating on specific choices, such as the stag hunt, prisoner’s dilemma, and so forth. This

leaves open issues of the “whole;” how do game relate with one another, what causes, in general,

the various complexities? The coordinate system we developed, which is based on the symmetry

structures of games, answers many of the questions by orthogonally separating tensions caused by

individual choice (Nash behavior) from that requiring group effort (coordination, cooperation,

externalities, etc.) It this manner, it now becomes trivial to create any number of examples of

games (for the lab, a paper, etc.) that have, for instance, the identical strategic structure, but differ

significantly with other traits designed to divert the attention of players. Much of the year was

spent writing this material up in a book form.

Stergios Skaperdas

In “Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” (forthcoming in Public Choice)

Samarth Vaidya and I have explored the following puzzle: Over the past two millennia successful

pre-modern states in Eurasia adopted and cultivated Big-God religions that emphasize (i) the

ruler's legitimacy as divinely ordained and (ii) a morality adapted for large-scale societies that can

have positive economic effects. We made sense of that development by building on previous

research that has conceptualized pre-modern states as maximizing the ruler's profit. We modelled

the interaction of rulers and subjects who have both material and psychological payoffs, the latter

emanating from religious identity. Overall, religion reduces the cost of controlling subjects

through the threat of violence, increases production, increases tax revenue, and reduces banditry.

A Big-God ruler, who also is a believer, has stronger incentives to invest in expanding the number

of believers and the intensity of belief, as well as investing in state capacity. Furthermore, such

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investments often are complementary, mutually reinforcing one another, thus leading to an

evolutionary advantage for rulers that adopted Big-God religions.

Rein Taagepera

Taagepera has received the Johan Skytte Prize (2008), the largest in political science worldwide.

His broad goal, voiced in Making Social Sciences More Scientific (2008) and “Science walks on

two legs, but social sciences try to hop on one” (2018), is to establish logically grounded and

quantitatively predictive relationships among social factors, expressed in interconnected equations

along the format of most laws of physics. While he has also studied growth and decay of empires

and developed an interaction model of world population growth, technology and the Earth’s

carrying capacity (2014), he has mostly implemented this goal in electoral and party systems. The

Laakso-Taagepera effective number of parties (1979) is widely used. It largely determines the

duration of governmental cabinets (2010).

The number of parties depends on the number of seats available -- in electoral district and in

legislative assembly (itself tied to population through cube root law, 1972). The resulting “Seat

Product” largely predicts the number of parties and the size of the largest (2007). Votes from Seats

(2017, with Shugart) adds baffling evidence that Seat Product largely determines even the

splintering of votes and deviation from proportional representation, another major concern in

democratic politics.

This is prime evidence that interconnected quantitative relationships, so basic to natural sciences,

do exist in social nature. A chain of logically based predictions extends from Seat Product to

number of parties, cabinet duration and deviation from PR. This monumental package of

“connections among connections” enables informed institutional engineering to design and

modify party systems.

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III. IMBS FACULTY RESEARCH SEMINARS AND LABORATORIES

A. Research Seminars

The research activities of the Institute often result in graduate research seminars. Among

those this year:

Carter Butts Network Theory (Sociology) Winter 2019

Jean-Paul Carvalho Micoeconomic Theory Winter 2019

Jean-Paul Carvalho Economics of Identity & Culture Spring 2019

David Eppstein Weekly seminar on theoretical computer science F,W,S, 18-19

Ami Glazer Workshop in Industrial Organization and Corporate

Welfare Studies Summer 2018

F,W, 18 - 19

Simon Huttegger Reading group on formal epistemology F,W 18-19

Huttegger & Skyrms Philosophy, Politics and Economies Fall 2018

Huttegger & Skryms Chance Winter 2019

Marek Kaminski Game Theory Fall 2018

Marek Kaminski Voting Theory Winter 2019

L. Robin Keller Operations Analytics Fall 2018

L. Robin Keller Decision Theory Spring 2019

Narens & Skyrms Social Dynamics F&W 2018-2019

Narens & Skyrms Utilitarianism Spring 2019

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B. Research Laboratories

Mathematical Reasoning for the Sciences Faculty Organizer: Don Saari

As labeled by the students, “Don squad.” This weekly discussion group identifies and discusses

research issues coming from the social and behavioral sciences. An interesting aspect is how a

goal is to identify what kinds of mathematics needs to be invented, or modified, to address these

issues. Weekly meeting times scheduled each quarter to accommodate class and teaching

schedules.

Experimental Social Science Laboratory (ESSL) Faculty Organizer: Mike McBride and John

Duffy

The Experimental Social Science Laboratory (ESSL) is a computer laboratory for the

experimental study of individual and interactive decision making. Located at SBSG 1240, the

laboratory can conduct computer-based experiments of up to 40 subjects, but ESSL also has

capabilities to conduct internet-based experiments. ESSL is available for use by researchers of all

social scientific disciplines who conduct experiments according to the standards of experimental

economics. ESSL personnel are affiliated with many departments in the UCI School of Social

Science, including Economics, Anthropology, Cognitive Sciences, Logic and Philosophy of

Science, Political Science, and Sociology, and also with departments in the School of Social

Ecology and Paul Merage School of Business.

Social Network Research Group (SNRG) Faculty Organizer: Carter Butts

We continue to host the Social Network Research group, which meets weekly during the quarter

(day and time vary). The Social Network Research Group (SNRG) is a weekly meeting of

researchers in the social network area. The SNRG welcomes discussions and/or presentations of

current theoretical, methodological, and/or empirical work on or of relevance to the study of

social structure. Discussion of “early phase” research and preliminary findings are especially

welcomed, as are presentations by students and newcomers to the field.

(www.relationalanalysis.org).

Cognition and Color Reading Group Research Organizer: Kimberly Jameson

A weekly discussion group of published research articles, or participants' on-going research

interests, on topics of cognition and color perception. Topics covered in recent years include:

Color perception correlates of photopigment opsin genes, psychophysical investigations of

heterochromatic luminance discrimination, adaptive optics imaging of the human retina,

comparative color vision behavior, neural correlates of human color perception, individual

variation and color perception, color vision diagnostics and clinical applications, etc. Research

26

topics discussed typically focus on higher-order aspects of color processing, exploring front-end

processing issues when they bear on phenomenology. Meeting location: SSPA 2142

Meeting time: Fridays, 11:00 am - 12:30 pm; meeting dates designated at the beginning of each

quarter. Schedule posted at: http://www.imbs.uci.edu/~kjameson/ColorCogFALL2017.html

Social Dynamics Faculty Organizer: Brian Skyrms

Social Dynamics is a research seminar, where graduate students and faculty present research

projects, and there is vigorous critical discussion.

Instructors: Louis Narens, Don Saari, and Brian Skyrms

Meets fall quarter on Tuesdays, 2:00 - 5:00 p.m. on 7th floor of the Social Science Tower.

Computational Models of Language Reading Group (CoLa) Faculty Organizer: Lisa Pearl

Topics of interest for the group include computational models of language learning,

computational learning theory, principles underlying models of language acquisition and language

change, and models of information extraction from language by humans. We meet four times a

quarter for about an hour, and it’s usually a nicely feisty discussion.

Day/time to meet will be updated on the website.

IV. GRADUATE TRAINING

A. Ph.D. Students

Louis Narens is the Director of the MBS graduate program.

The following is our current roster of 9 students enrolled in the Ph.D. program in

Mathematical Behavioral Sciences during the current academic year. They are listed in Appendix

F.

Nikhil Addleman

Lucila Arroya

Calvin Cochran

Maryam Gooyabadi

Santiago Guisasola

Kirbi Joe

William Leibzon

Joseph Nunn Junying Zhao

B. Graduate Activities

While the formal part of our graduate program is small, the actual impact on the UCI

graduate program is more extensive. MBS graduate students meet weekly with the interim

27

director and weekly colloquium speaker to discuss current research, allowing for expanded

interaction and networking opportunities with professors and researchers.

C. Friday Research Presentations

This IMBS activity was coordinated by MBS graduate students and participants Nikhil Addleman, Calvin Cochran, and Maryam Gooyabadi. Weekly research meetings give space for graduate students and faculty to gather on Fridays from Noon – 1:00 p.m. in the Luce Conference Room to introduce research they are working on. Graduate students from surrounding graduate programs participate on a regular basis with our weekly Friday lecture section and our annual graduate student conference. The presentations are followed by discussion periods afterwards. This year’s presentations are as follows:

October 12

PATRICK NEAL RUSSELL JULIUS

Graduate Student in Economics

UCI

“Public goods games under a nonlinear tax system with interior dominant strategy equilibria”

October 19

MIKE SHIN

Graduate Student in Economics

UCI

“Expectations and Stock Market Participation: Theory and Evidence”

November 9

STEPHAN JAGAU

Postdoctoral Scholar

IMBS

UCI

“Psychological Expected Utility”

November 16

JOHN DUFFY

Professor

Department of Economics

UCI

“Living a Lie: Theory and Evidence on Public Preference Falsification”

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January 11

CHEW SOO HONG

Professor of Economics and Provost’s Chair

University of Singapore

UC Irvine

“Motivated False Memory”

January 18

Fernando P. Santos

Postdoctoral Fellow

Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology

Princeton University

“Indirect reciprocity under simple norms and costly reputation building”

February 1

DANIEL HERRMANN

Graduate Student

Logic and Philosophy of Science

UCI

“Inventing Correlated Conventions”

February 8

EMRE NEFTCI

Assistant Professor

Department of Cognitive Science

UCI

“Neuromorphic Machine Intelligence”

February 15

ZACHARY SCHALLER

Graduate Student

Department of Economics

UCI

“Bargaining and Conflict with Up-front Investments”

February 22

WILLIAM LEIBZON

Graduate Student

MBS

UCI

“Visualization and Mathematics of Gerrymandering in US House of Representatives Elections”

29

March 1

JOSEPH NUNN

Graduate Student

MBS

UC

“AB-Solver: A novel 3-CNF SAT algorithm inspired by human cognition”

March 8

KYLE KOLE

Graduate Student

Department of Economics

UCI

“Investing in Socializing at the Workplace”

APRIL 26

ANDRES PEREA

Maastricht University

“Common belief in rationality in games with unawareness”

May 17 Junying (June) Zhao

Graduate Student MBS UCI

“Hippocratic Paradox – Co-evolution of Social Practice, Medical Ethics, and Health Law”

May 24 NIKHIL ADDLEMAN

Graduate Student MBS UCI

“The Ecology of Religion”

June 7 DONALD BAMBER

Specialist Department of Cognitive Science

UCI “Integrating Fisher and Bayes via Mimetic Modeling”

D. Duncan Luce Graduate Student Conference

IMBS sponsors a yearly graduate student conference where students in the MBS program,

as well as other students whose research interests are related to MBS, present their research. The

30

graduate organizers of the annual conference were MBS graduate students Nikhil Addleman,

Calvin Cochran, and Maryam Gooyabadi.

31

E. 2019 Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award

Each year, IMBS presents the Jean-Claude Falmagne Dissertation Award to a graduate

student for the best dissertation that uses mathematics to develop conceptual advances for issues

coming from the social and behavioral sciences. Going beyond the use of mathematics for

computational purposes, the intent is to award a dissertation that uses concepts from mathematics

to reach new conclusions.

Santiago Guisasola receives this year's award for his dissertation, "Towards a Mathematical

Theory of Group Creativity and Collaboration." Santiago received his bachelor's degree in

mathematics from University of Central Florida in 2012. From UC Irvine, he earned his Ph.D. in

mathematical behavioral sciences in Fall 2018. His dissertation provides a platform for studying

group creativity and removes many mathematical obstacles that, in the past, have hindered

carrying out such a program. Santiago is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the Instituto de

Matematica Pura e Aplicada in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

V. COMMUNICATION

A. IMBS Conferences

The director’s statement expanded on the areas of interest for this year’s research

conferences. We are providing the following conference agendas to give a more in-depth look at

the scope of our presentations.

32

THE INSTITUTE FOR MATHEMATICAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES,

FORMAL MODELING AND ANALYSIS OF COLOR CATEGORIZATION; INNOVATIONS AND INSIGHTS SINCE BERLIN AND KAY (1969)

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 9:30AM – 6:30PM & SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 3, 9:30AM – 6:30PM

SSPA 2112 DUNCAN LUCE CONFERENCE ROOM

Friday, November 02, 2018

9:30AM Coffee and Opening Remarks, Kimberly A. Jameson and Kim Romney

10:30AM "From Basic Color Terms to the World Color Survey: A self-indulgent

chronicle". Brent Berlin & Paul Kay

11:30AM "The World Color Survey (WCS) Online Digital Archive". Richard Cook

12:30PM Lunch Break

2:00PM "Evolutionary models of color categorization". Natalia Komarova

3:00PM "A mathematical approach to color categorization studies". Nicole Fider

4:00PM Break

4:10PM "Further evolution of natural categorization systems: A new approach to

evolving color concepts". Maryam Gooyabadi

5:10PM "Two Italian basic blue categories: Visualizing diatopic variation of referential

meanings". Galina V. Paramei

6:10PM Discussion and Adjourn

Saturday, November 03, 2018

9:30AM "The sparse, distributed, diverse mapping of color terms onto color space,

Part I: Motifs and Hering theory". Angela Brown & Delwin Lindsey

10:30AM

"The sparse, distributed, diverse mapping of color terms onto color space,

Part II: Hadzane, the color communication game, and color sorting". Delwin

Lindsey & Angela Brown

11:30AM

"When does "Bright" mean "Prototypal"? Color-term modifiers in five

European languages, examined with color-survey data". David Bimler & Mari

Uuskula

12:30PM Lunch Break

2:00PM "Color naming and cognition in computational perspective". Terry Regier

3:00PM "Quantifying diachronic change in category meaning using evolutionary

models of learning". Kirbi Joe

4:00PM Break

4:10PM "Mechanisms of color, uncovered by neuroscience and language". Bevil

Conway

5:10PM "Color categories and the perceptual representation of color". Michael A.

Webster

6:10PM Discussion and Adjourn

33

INSTITUTE FOR MATHEMATICAL BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES

Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms

Friday and Saturday, March 22 & 23, 2019

Luce Conference Room, Social Science Plaza A, Room 2112

FRIDAY, MARCH 22

9:15 – 9:45 a.m. Coffee & Pastries

9:45 –10:00 a.m. Director's Welcome – Jean-Paul Carvalho

Chair: David Hirshleifer

10:00 – 10:45 a.m. Elena Miu, Arizona State University, Models of cumulative cultural evolution

10:45 –11.30 a.m. Alberto Bisin, New York University, Culture and Institutions

11:30 – 12:00 p.m. Coffee Break

12:00 – 12:45 p.m. Robert Boyd, Arizona State University, Arbitration supports reciprocity when there

are frequent perception errors

12:45 – 2:30 p.m. Lunch Break

Chair: Natalia Komarova

2:30 – 3:15 p.m. Myrna Wooders, Vanderbilt University, Own experience bias in a labor market with

heterogeneous rewards

3:15 – 4:00 p.m. Jean-Paul Carvalho, University of California, Irvine, Identity and underrepresentation

4:00 – 4:30 p.m. Coffee Break

4:30 – 5:15 p.m. David Hirshleifer, University of California, Irvine, Visibility bias in the transmission of

consumption beliefs and undersaving

SATURDAY, MARCH 23

9:30 – 10:00 a.m. Coffee & Pastries

Chair: Brian Skyrms

10:00 – 10:45 a.m. Erol Akcay, University of Pennsylvania, On social norms as choreographers of social

interactions and as generator of prosocial preferences

10:45 – 11:30 a.m. Natalia Komarova, University of California, Irvine, Mathematical modeling of culture:

learning from an inconsistent source and music evolution

11:30 – 12:00 p.m. Coffee Break

12:00 – 12:45 p.m. Nicole Creanza, Vanderbilt University, Models of cultural evolution in structured

populations

12:45 – 2:30 p.m. Lunch Break

Chair: Jean-Paul Carvalho

2:30 – 3:15 p.m. Jared Rubin, Chapman University, A theory of conservative revivals

3:15 – 4:00 p.m. Brian Skyrms, University of California, Irvine, From Democritus to signaling networks

4:00 – 4:30 p.m. Coffee Break

4:30 – 5:15 p.m. Larry Iannaccone, Chapman University, God games: An experimental study of

uncertainty, superstition, and cooperation

34

B. Conferences/Seminars Organized By IMBS Members

Carter Butts

Co-Organizer and lecturer, statnet workshops at the 2018 NASN meeting and 2019 Sunbelt

conference.

Organizer for the Regular session on Quantitative Methodology, 2019 ASA Annual Meeting.

Jean-Paul Carvalho

Organizer, Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms, IMBS, March 2019.

Ami Glazer

Panel on corporate welfare, 2019 Public Choice Society Annual Meetings, March 14-16,

Louisville KY

Kimberly A. Jameson

November 2 & 3, 2018: Jameson organized and carried out the IMBS conference entitled: “The

Formal Modeling and Analysis of Color Categorization: Innovations and Insights since Berlin and

Kay (1969)”. Attendees included a notable set of distinguished National Academy Members and

other internationally recognized faculty who presented on and discussed novel advances in Color

Categorization Research.

Gregory Scontras

North American Computational Linguistics Olympiad. January 24, 2019; March 7, 2019.

UC Irvine.

The Second UC Irvine Workshop in Logical Semantics. March 2, 2019. UC Irvine.

35

C. IMBS Colloquium Series

During the academic year the Institute conducts a weekly colloquia series with speakers

from both inside as well as outside the Institute. For speakers outside California, we attempt,

insofar as possible, to coordinate their visit with other travel to California and to co-sponsor joint

talks with other research units. We distribute a relevant paper, when available, prior to each

colloquium. Most papers are also downloadable from the IMBS web site at

http://www.imbs.uci.edu/newsevents/events/colloquia.php.

The following talks were presented in the IMBS Luce Conference Room during the 2018 – 2019 academic year:

October 5

Joint talk with L&PS

NIGEL GOLDENFELD

Swanlund Endowed Chair and Center for Advanced Study

Professor of Physics

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

“Is there Universality in Biology”

October 25

FUAD ALESKEROV

National Research University Higher School of Economics and Institute of Control Sciences of

Russian Academy of Sciences

Moscow, Russia

“New Centrality Indices for Networks and their Applications”

November 1

ZYG PIZLO

Professor and Falmagne Endowed Chair

Department of Cognitive Sciences

UCI

“The Role of Representation in Solving Combinatorial Optimization Problems”

November 8

JEFF BARRETT

Chancellor’s Professor

Logic & Philosophy of Science

UCI

“Self-Assembling Games and Networks”

November 15

LISA PEARL

Professor of Language Science and Cognitive Sciences

Chair of Language Science

UCI

36

“Quantitative Approaches to Learning Linking Theories in Language”

November 29

VIJAY VAZIRANI

Distinguished Professor

Computer Science

UCI

“Google’s Adwords Market: How Theory Influenced Practice”

December 6

ROBIN KELLER

Professor of Operations and Decision Technologies

Merage School of Business

UCI

“Spatial Preference Models with Multiple Objectives across Multiple Geographic Regions”

January 24

ISAAC WEISS

Senior Research Scientist

University of Maryland

“Object recognition using a knowledge-based dual hierarchy graphical model”

January 31

GREG SCONTRAS

Assistant Professor of Linguistics

UC Irvine

“The Role of Subjectivity in Adjective Ordering Preferences”

February 14

RICHARD FUTRELL

Assistant Professor of Linguistics

UC Irvine

“Natural language as a code: Modeling human language using information theory”

February 21

AVNER SEROR

Research Associate in Economics

Chapman University

“Parental Rearing Practices, Intergenerational Transmission and Child Development”

February 28

IGOR KOPYLOV

Professor of Economics

UC Irvine

“Minimal Rationalizations”

March 7

37

LUYI GUI

Assistant Professor of Operations and Decision Technologies

Paul Merage School of Business

UC Irvine

“Efficient and Effective Implementation of Electronic Waste Recycling Legislation – A Cooperative

Game Theory Practice”

March 14

Joint talk with ACO

NICOLE IMMORLICA

Researcher

Microsoft Research Lab – New England

April 4

JIM WEATHERALL

Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science

UC Irvine

“Polarization and Factionization in Science”

April 18

LINDA COHEN

Professor of Economics

UC Irvine

“The Political Economy of Electricity Rates”

April 25

ACACIO de BARROS

Professor of Humanities and Liberal Studies

San Francisco State University

“Information and Context”

May 2

LAURA DOVAL

Assistant Professor of Economics

Caltech

“Sequential Information Design”

May 9

TOM TROGDON

Assistant Professor of Mathematics

UC Irvine

“Random matrices, transportation statistics, decision making time and universality”

May 16

FEDERICO ECHENIQUE

Professor of Economics

Caltech

38

“The Edgeworth Conjecture with Small Coalitions and Approximate Equilibria in Large

Economies”

May 23

SID BANERJEE

Assistant Professor

Cornell University

“The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Artificial Currencies”

May 30

GEORGE SPERLING

Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Sciences

UC Irvine

“Deriving and Applying a Theory of Perceived Motion Direction”

39

VI. BUDGET

A. Appropriations and Expenditures

Appropriations:

2018-19 IMBS Budget allocation $ 90,000.00

2018-19 Overhead return $ 12,850.00

Total budget for 2018-19: $102,850.00

Expenditures:

Salaries & Benefits $ 48,535.00

Director’s Stipend $ 3,600.00

Social Sciences Business Office (Admin. Sup) $ 7,500.00

Social Sciences Business Office (Overhead) $ 12,850.00

Conference/Colloquia /Seminars $ 20,107.00

Supplies & Expenses $ 3,597.00

Graduate Student Support $ 6,661.00

Total Expenditures: $102,850.00

Closed fiscally solvent

40

B. Extramural Funding Activity

GRANTS AWARDED AND ACTIVE:

IMBS faculty research was supported by research grants totaling $22,921,282. The following is a

detailed breakdown of the extramural funding:

Carter Butts

Source: NSF MMS

Amount: $441,705

Award Period: 2018 – 2021

Title: Statistical Models for Dynamic Networks with Endogenous Vertex Migration

Role: PI

Steve Frank

Source: NSF

Award Amount: $275,000

Award Period: 2013 – 2018

Title: ABR: Models of Natural Selection, Development, and Life History

Role: PI

David Eppstein

Source: NSF

Award Amount: $159,987

Award Period: 2016-2019

Title: Collaborative Research: Efficient Algorithms for Cycles on Surfaces

Role: Co-PI

Source: NSF

Award Amount: $415,894

Award Period: 2016-2019

Title: Sparse Geometric Graph Algorithms

Role: PI

Ami Glazer

Source: Troesh Family Foundation

Award Amount: $130,000

Award Period: 2018

41

Title: Program in Corporate Welfare Studies

Role: PI

Source: Troesh Family Foundation

Award Amount: $240,000

Award Period: 2019

Title: Program in Corporate Welfare Studies

Role: PI

Andrew Noymer

Source: Russell Sage Foundation

Amount: $10,000

Award Period: 2018 – 2019

Title: The Opioid Epidemic and Racial Classification on Death Certificates

Role: Co investigator/sub-award on grant #93-18-05, April 2018

PI is Prof. Aliya Saperstein of Stanford

Hal Stern

Source: NIMH (renewal)

Amount: $15,000,000

Award Period: 2019 – 2024

Title Fragmented Early-Life Experiences, Aberrant Circuit Maturation, and Emotional

Vulnerabilities

Role: Co-PI

PI is Professor T. Baram (UCI)

Source: NIST

Amount: $3,700,000

Award Period: 2015 – 2020

Title: Center of Excellence in Forensic Statistics

Role: PI (Co-PI of $20,000,000 grant)

Vijay Vazirani

Source: NSF CISE

Award Amount: $500,000

Award Period: 2018- 2021

Title: Algorithms for Matching, Markets, and Matching Markets

Role: PI

42

James Weatherall

Source: John Templeton Foundation

Award Amount: $1,369,872

Award Period: 2018-2020

Title: New Directions in Philosophy of Cosmology

Role: Co-PI with C. Smeenk, University of Western Ontario

Hongkai Zhao

Project/Proposal Title: Theory and practice for exploiting the underlying structure of probability

models in big data analysis

Source of Support: NSF

Total Award Amount: $249,964

Total Award Period Covered: 06/01/16-05/31/19

Project/Proposal Title: Shape and data analysis using computational differential geometry

Source of Support: NSF

Total Award Amount: $328,860

Total Award Period Covered: 07/01/14-12/31/18

Project/Proposal Title: Intrinsic complexity of random fields and its connections to random

matrices and stochastic differential equations (THIS PROPOSAL)

Source of Support: NSF

Total Award Amount: $100,000

Total Award Period Covered: 07/01/2018 – 06/30/2021

Pending

Steve Frank

Source: NSF

Award Amount: $250,000

Award Period: 2020 – 2022

Title:OPUS: CRS: Comparative life history microbes

Role: PI

Source: DoD

Award Amount: $360,000

Award Period: 2019 - 2022

Title: Robustness increases variability: a fundamental law of biology (Mathematical

Sciences/Biomathematics

Role: PI

43

Kimberly A. Jameson

Source: UC Irvine Alzheimer’s Disease Research Center. Intramural grant proposal

Award Amount: $40,019 (proposed budget)

Award Period: 2019 –

Title: Genetic and Data Analytic Pilot Investigations of Associations between Alzheimer’s

Disease and Age-related Macular Degeneration Biomarkers, and their Possible Relationship to

Human Photopigment Opsin Gene Variation

Role: PI

Michael Lee

NIH R01, sub-contract to Stanford University, “Hierarchical computational models of cognitive

control, belief updating, and reward sensitivity in children: a big-data longitudinal

neurodevelopmental approach”

Australian Research Council Discovery Project, “Towards an integrated model of reasoning and

reasoning development.” Partner Investigator with B. Hayes and J. Dunn.

Lisa Pearl

Source: NIH

Award Amount: $2,000,000

Award Period: 2019 -

Title: How non-literal language develops: A computational framework for investigating children’s

understanding of hyperbole, understatement, and sarcasm

Role: PI

Gregory Scontras

Source: NIH

Award Amount: $2,000,000

Award Period: 2019 -

Title: How non-literal language develops: A computational framework for investigating children’s

understanding of hyperbole, understatement, and sarcasm

Role: PI

44

APPENDICES

C. CURRENT FACULTY MEMBERS

APPENDIX A IMBS FACULTY, 2018 - 2019

Robert Akerlof, (Ph.D. Economics, Harvard University). Associate Professor, Department of

Economics, University of Warwick. Research areas: Applied Microeconomic Theory,

Organizational Economics, Sociology and Economics.

Pierre F. Baldi, (Ph.D. Mathematics, California Institute of Technology). Distinguished Professor

of Computer Science; Director, Institute for Genomics & Bioinformatics, University of California,

Irvine. Research areas: Bioinformatics, computational biology, probabilistic modeling, machine

learning.

Jeffrey Barrett, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Columbia University). Chancellor's Fellow and Professor of

Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of

science; theory of knowledge; philosophy of physics.

Michael Birnbaum, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of

Psychology, Cal State University, Fullerton. Research areas: Human judgment, decision-making,

and utility measurement.

John P. Boyd, (Ph.D. Communication Sciences, University of Michigan). Professor Emeritus of

Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Algebraic models of social

relations, quantitative methods, and sociobiology.

William A. Branch, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Oregon). Chancellor’s Fellow and Professor

of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Macroeconomic dynamics.

Myron (Mike) Braunstein, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Michigan). Professor Emeritus of

Psychology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Visual perception, especially depth

and motion perception.

David Brownstone, (Ph.D. Econometrics and Applied Microeconomics, University of California,

Berkeley) Professor and Chair of Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas:

Computer-intensive analysis of statistical estimation strategies and applied econometrics.

Jan K. Brueckner, (Ph.D. Economics, Stanford University). Chancellor’s Professor of Economics

and Department Chair, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Urban economics, public

economics, industrial organization, housing finance.

45

Michael Burton, (Ph.D. Anthropology, Stanford University). Professor Emeritus of

Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Economic and social

anthropology.

Carter Butts, (Ph.D. Sociology, Carnigie Mellon University). Professor of Sociology, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Social networks, Bayesian methods, informant accuracy and

strategic behavior.

Jean-Paul Carvalho, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Oxford). Associate Professor of Economics,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Game theory; culture, identity and institutions.

Charles Chubb, (Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, New York University). Professor of Cognitive

Sciences. University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, perception, and information

processing.

Linda Cohen, (Ph.D. Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology). Professor of

Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Political economy, public choice,

and government regulation of business.

Art De Vany, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor Emeritus of

Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Models of industry organization,

health, analysis and policy of extreme events, information processing and market institutions.

Barbara A. Dosher, (Ph.D. Experimental Psychology, University of Oregon). NAS Member,

Distinguished Professor of Cognitive Sciences, School of Social Sciences, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Memory, visual perception, depth from visual motion.

Michael D'Zmura, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Rochester). Professor of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, color, attention, image understanding,

virtual reality.

Jeffrey Ely, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Berkeley). Charles E. and Emma

Morrison Professor of Economics, Director, Mathematical Methods in the Social Sciences

Program, Northwestern University. Research areas: Pure game theory, applied microeconomics,

behavioral and experimental economics.

David A. Eppstein, (Ph.D. Computer Sciences, Columbia University). Chancellor’s Professor of

Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computational geometry and

graph algorithms, including finite element meshing, minimum spanning trees, shortest paths,

dynamic graph data structures, graph coloring, graph drawing, geometric optimization,

computational robust statistics, and geometric optimization.

46

Jean-Claude Falmagne, (Ph.D. Psychological Sciences, University of Brussels). Research

Professor, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Assessment of

knowledge, measurement theory, psychophysics, mathematical psychology.

Katherine Faust, (Ph.D. Social Science, University of California, Irvine). Professor of Sociology,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical, computational, and conceptual

models to study complex phenotypes.

Steven A. Frank, (Ph.D. Biology, University of Michigan). Donald Bren Professor of Ecology

and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Evolution of social

behavior; design of reliability.

Michelle Garfinkel, (Ph.D. Economics, Brown University). Professor of Economics, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Strategic aspects of monetary and fiscal policies.

Amihai Glazer, (Ph.D. Economics, Yale University). Professor of Economics, University of

California, Irvine. Research Areas: Public choice, especially concerning commitment problems.

Bernard Grofman, (Ph.D. Political Science, University of Chicago). Jack W. Peltason Endowed

Chair, Professor of Political Science; Past Director, Center for the Study of Democracy,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Models of group decision making, models of

individual choice, electoral competition.

Donald Hoffman, (Ph.D. Computational Psychology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

Professor of Cognitive Sciences and Information and Computer Science, University of California,

Irvine. Research areas: Formal theories of perception, human and machine vision, recovery of

depth from images.

Simon Huttegger, (Ph.D. Universität Salzburg). Chancellor’s Fellow and Professor of Logic and

Philosophy of Science Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Probability

theory; philosophy of probability, induction, decision theory, social philosophy, dynamical

Systems.

Larry Iannaccone (Ph.D. Economics, University of Chicago). Professor of Economics, Director,

Institute for the Study of Religion, Economics, and Society, Argyros School of Business and

Economics, Chapman University. Research areas: Economics of religion.

Geoffrey Iverson, (Ph.D. Theoretical Physics, University of Adelaide, Australia, Ph.D.

Experimental Psychology, New York University). Professor Emeritus of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Psychophysics, vision, statistical estimation and

testing of ordinal models.

47

Marek Kaminski, (Ph.D. Government and Politics, University of Maryland). Associate Professor

of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Political systems and

economics in transition, formal models of voting, political consequences of electoral laws, models

of allocation and social choice.

L. Robin Keller, (Ph.D. Management Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor

of Management, Paul Merage School of Business, University of California, Irvine. Research

areas: Individual decision making, risk analysis, fairness, probability judgements, decision

problem structuring.

Pramod P. Khargonekar (Ph.D. Electrical Engineering, University of Florida) Vice Chancellor for

Research, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Systems and control theory and

applications, smart grid and renewable energy, machine learning and control, engineering

education and research, technology and society.

Igor Kopylov, (Ph.D. University of Rochester). Associate Professor of Economics, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Microeconomic theory, decision theory, and game theory.

Natalia Komarova, (Ph.D. Applied Mathematics, University of Arizona). Professor of

Mathematics, and Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine. Research

areas: Mathematical modeling and biology, virus dynamics, cancer modeling.

Michael D. Lee, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Adelaide). Professor of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Mathematical and computational models of

stimulus representation, categorization, memory, decision-making and problem-solving.

Ines Levin, (Ph.D. Social Science, California Institute of Technology). Assistant Professor,

Department of Political Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Quantitative

research methods with substantive applications in the areas of elections, public opinion, and

political behavior. Statistical and computational methods for studying opinion-formation and

decision-making processes.

Simon Asher Levin, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of Maryland). NAS Member, Director,

Center for BioComplexity, George M. Moffett Professor of Biology, Princeton University.

Research Areas: Dynamics of populations and communities; spatial heterogeneity and problems

of scale; evolutionary ecology; theoretical and mathematical ecology; biodiversity and ecosystem

processes.

Elizabeth F. Loftus, (Ph.D. Stanford University) NAS Member, Distinguished Professor:

Psychological Science; Criminology; Law and Society; Cognitive Science; Law, University of

California, Irvine. Research Areas: Human memory with specializations in cognitive psychology

and law.

48

Mark Machina, (Ph.D. Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology). Professor of

Economics, University of California, San Diego. Research areas: Utility, decision making, risk

behavior.

Penelope Maddy, (Ph.D. Philosophy, Princeton). Distinguished Professor of Logic and

Philosophy of Science, and Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas:

Philosophy of mathematics, especially the philosophy of set theory.

Michael McBride, (Ph.D. Economics, Yale University). Professor of Economics, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Microeconomics, game theory, and political economy.

Louis Narens, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of

Cognitive Sciences, and Psychiatry and Human Behavior, Graduate Advisor for IMBS, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Measurement theory, foundations of science, decision

theory.

Andrew Noymer, (Ph.D. Sociology, University of California, Berkeley). Associate Professor of

Public Health, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Medical demography,

mathematical sociology, quantitative methodology.

Cailin O’Connor, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of California, Irvine) Assistant Professor of

Logic and Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Philosophy of

biology, philosophy of science, and evolutionary game theory.

Richard S. Palais, (Ph.D. Mathematics, Harvard University). Adjunct Professor of Mathematics,

University of California, Irvine. Research Areas: Mathematical Visualization and more

specifically to continue the development of Macintosh program 3D-Filmstrip (now called 3D-

XplorMath).

Lisa Pearl, (Ph.D. Linguistics, University of Maryland at College Park). Chair and Associate

Professor of Language Science, Associate Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Language development, linguistics, computational

sociolinguistics, cognitive modeling.

Zygmunt Pizlo, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Maryland at College Park). Professor and

Falmagne Endowed Chair, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas:

Human and machine vision, 3D shape, symmetry, virtual reality, robotics, problem solving.

Dale Poirier, (Ph.D. Economics, University of Wisconsin). Professor of Economics, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Econometrics, both theoretical and empirical, specializing

in Bayesian econometrics.

49

A. Kimball Romney, (Ph.D. Social Anthropology, Harvard University). NAS Member, Emeritus

Professor of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Cognitive

anthropology, cultural consensus, informant accuracy, quantitative methods.

Jeffrey Rouder, (Ph.D. Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine).

Professor and Falmagne Endowed Chair, Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine.

Research areas: Mathematical and statistical models of perception and cognition, Bayesian mixed

models, psychometrics.

Donald G. Saari, (Ph.D. Mathematics, Purdue University). NAS Member, Distinguished

Research Professor of Mathematics and Economics, and Director Emeritus of the Institute for

Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematics

and application of dynamical systems to social sciences; decision theory.

Stergios Skaperdas, (Ph.D. Economics, Johns Hopkins University). Clifford S. Heinz Chair and

Professor of Economics, and Director of Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Economic theory and political economy.

Greg Scontras, (Ph.D. Linguistics, Harvard University). Assistant Professor, Language Science,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Natural language semantics, computational

models of language understanding, and heritage languages.

Brian Skyrms, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of Pittsburgh). NAS Member, Distinguished

Professor of Social Sciences, Professor of Logic and Philosophy of Science, and Professor of

Economics, and Director of Salzburg Exchange Program, University of California, Irvine.

Research areas: Probability, induction, causation, rational choice.

Kenneth A. Small, (Ph.D. Economics, University of California, Berkeley). Professor Emeritus of

Economics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Urban, energy and transportation

economics, econometrics.

Padhraic Smyth, (Ph.D. Computer Engineering, California Institute of Technology). Professor of

Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Statistical pattern

recognition, probabilistic learning, information theory, artificial intelligence, image and time-

series modeling.

George Sperling, (Ph.D. Psychology, Harvard University). NAS Member, Distinguished

Professor of Cognitive Sciences, and Department of Neurobiology and Behavior, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: Human information processing, vision and visual perception,

computer vision and image processing.

50

Ramesh Srinivasan, (Ph.D. Biomedical Engineering, Tulane University). Professor of Cognitive

Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Perception, development and cortical

dynamics.

Hal Stern, (Ph.D. Statistics, University of California, Irvine). Ted and Janice Smith Family

Foundation Endowed Chair in Information and Computer Science, Professor of Information and

Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Bayesian methods, model

diagnostics, statistical computing.

Mark Steyvers, (Ph.D. Psychology, Indiana University). Professor of Cognitive Sciences,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Computational models of memory, reasoning

and perceptions.

Rein Taagepera, (Ph.D. Physics, University of Delaware). Professor Emeritus of Political Science,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Quantitatively predictive models; electoral and

party systems; Finno-Ugric area studies.

Tom Trogdon, (Ph.D. Applied Mathematics, University of Washington). Assistant Professor of

Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Interaction between

probability/random matrix theory and numerical analysis, Riemann-Hilbert problems, and

applications of universality.

Carole Uhlaner, (Ph.D. Political Science, Harvard University). Professor of Political Science,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Rational actor models and statistical analyses of

political behavior, especially participation and voting; decision theory; comparative politics.

Joachim Vandekerckhove, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Leuven, Belgium) Associate

Professor of Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Response time

modeling – Psychometrics- Computional methods – Bayesian statistics.

James Weatherall, (Ph.D. Philosophy, University of California, Irvine). Professor of Logic and

Philosophy of Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Philosophy of physics.

Philosophy of space and time, philosophy of science, atomic, molecular, and optical physics

(theory), mathematical physics.

Vijay Vazirani, (Ph.D. Computer Science, University of California, Berkeley). Distinguished

Professor of Computer Science, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Algorithmic

problems in mathematical economics and game theory, design of efficient exact and

approximation algorithms, computational complexity theory.

Douglas White, (Ph.D. Anthropology, Social Theory, University of Minnesota). Professor

Emeritus of Anthropology, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: social networks,

longitudinal social demography, cross cultural, quantitative methods.

51

Charles E. (Ted) Wright, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of Michigan). Associate Professor of

Cognitive Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Motor processing and

control, visual search, handwriting.

Jack Xin, (Ph.D. Courant Institute, New York University). Professor of Mathematics, University

of California, Irvine. Research areas: Partial Differential Equations (PDE), Asymptotic

Analysis, Scientific Computation, and their Applications in Fluid Dynamics, Voice Signal

Processing, Biology, Nonlinear Optics and Geoscience.

John I. Yellott, (Ph.D. Psychology, Stanford University). Professor Emeritus of Cognitive

Sciences, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Vision, probabilistic choice models.

Hongkai Zhao, (Ph.D. Mathematics, University of California, Los Angeles). Professor of

Mathematics, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied and computational

mathematics with applications in physics, engineering, imaging science and computer vision.

Robert Forbes, (Ph.D. Mathematical Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine).

Project Scientist, University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Applied studies of decision-

making under uncertainty. Development of mathematical modeling and methodologies for risk

assessment and group decision-making in large corporations.

A. Jameson, (Ph.D. Psychology, University of California, Irvine). Project Scientist, University of

California, Irvine. Research areas: categorization behaviors; modeling concept formation for

perceptual stimuli (e.g., the cognitive organization of color sensations and its relationship to

linguistic classifiers); the development and breakdown of these cognitive functions; and optimum

performance in tasks involving color-coding(s).

Tim Satalich, (Ph.D. Mathematical Psychology, John Hopkins University). Associate Researcher,

University of California, Irvine. Research areas: Mathematical modeling of human color vision

processing. Development of statistical analysis methods for representing perceptual color space

data.

52

D. SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS

APPENDIX B SCIENTIFIC PUBLICATIONS OF IMBS MEMBERS, 2018 - 2019

Michael Birnbaum

Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). Empirical evaluation of third-generation prospect theory. Theory and

Decision, 84(1), 11-27. (published online June 6, 2017: DOI 10.1007/s11238-017-9607-y).

Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). Behavioral models of decision making under risk. In Raue, M., Lermer,

E., & Streicher, B. (Eds.), Psychological Perspectives on Risk and Risk Analysis: Theory, Models

and Applications (pp. 181-200), Berlin: Springer Verlag.

Birrnbaum, M. H., & Quispe-Torreblanca, E. G. (2018). TEMAP2.R: True and error model

analysis program in R. Judgment and Decision Making, 13(5), 428-440.

Kontek, K., & Birnbaum, M. H. (2019). The impact of middle outcomes on lottery valuations.

Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 78, 30-44.

Jan K. Brueckner

Journal articles:

Slums in Brazil: Where Are They Located, Who Lives in Them, and Do They “Squeeze” the

Formal Housing Market? (with Lucas Mation and Vanessa Nadalin), Journal of Housing

Economics 44, 48-60 (June 2019).

Carter Butts

Alimpertis, Emmanouil; Markopoulou, Athina; Butts, Carter T.; and Psounis, Konstantinos.

(2019). ``City-wide Signal Strength Maps: Prediction with Random Forests.'' Proceedings of the

2019 World Wide Web Conference (ACM WWW). DOI: 10.1145/3308558.3313726.

Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``A Dynamic Process Interpretation of the Sparse ERGM Reference

Model.'' Journal of Mathematical Sociology, 43(1), 40--57.

https://doi.org/10.1080/0022250X.2018.1490737.

53

Grazioli, Gianmarc; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Comparative Exploratory

Analysis of Intrinsically Disordered Protein Dynamics using Machine Learning and Network

Analytic Methods.'' Frontiers in Molecular Biosciences, Biological Modeling and Simulation,

6(42). DOI: 10.3389/fmolb.2019.00042.

Grazioli, Gianmarc; Roy, Saswata; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Predicting Reaction Products

and Automating Reactive Trajectory Characterization in Molecular Simulations with Support

Vector Machines.'' Journal of Chemical Information and Modeling, 59(6), 2753-2764. DOI:

10.1021/acs.jcim.9b00134 [Cover article].

Grazioli, Gianmarc; Yu, Yue; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T.

(2019). ``Network-based Classification and Modeling of Amyloid Fibrils.'' Journal of Physical

Chemistry, B, 123(26), 5452-5462. DOI: 10.1021/acs.jpcb.9b03494 [See also the video at

https://www.dropbox.com/s/plcznv1461x80vp/FibrilTopologyMovie.mp4?dl=0].

Olson, Michele K.; Sutton, Jeannette; Vos, Sarah C.; Prestley, Robert; Renshaw, Scott L.; and

Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Build Community Before the Storm: The National Weather Service’s

Social Media Engagement.'' Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, forthcoming.

Sutton, Jeannette; Renshaw, Scott L.; Vos, Sarah C.; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert C.;

Gibson, C. Ben; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Getting the Word Out, Rain or Shine: The Impact

of Message Features and Hazard Context on Message Passing Online.'' Weather, Climate, and

Society, forthcoming.

Tillman, Balint; Markopoulou, Athina; Butts, Carter T.; Gjoka, Minas. (2019). ``2K+ Graph

Construction Framework: Targeting Joint Degree Matrix and Beyond.'' IEEE/ACM Transactions

on Networking, forthcoming.

Vos, Sarah C.; Sutton, Jeannette; Gibson, C. Ben; Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Celebrity Cancer on

Twitter: Mapping a Novel Opportunity for Cancer Prevention.'' Cancer Control, forthcoming.

Yu, Yue; Smith, Emma J.; and Butts, Carter T. (2019). ``Retrospective Network Imputation from

Life History Data: The Impact of Designs.'' Sociological Methodology, forthcoming.

Almquist, Zack W. and Butts, Carter T. (2018). ``Dynamic Network Analysis with Missing

Data: Theory and Methods.'' Statistica Sinica, 28, 1245--1264. DOI: 10.5705/ss.202016.0108.

Duong, Vy T.; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Kelly, John E.; Kim, Suhn H.; Butts, Carter T.; and Martin,

Rachel W. (2018). ``Protein Structure Networks Provide Insight into Active Site Flexibility in

Esterase/Lipases from the Carnivorous Plant Drosera capensis.'' Integrative Biology, 10, 768--779.

DOI: 10.1039/C8IB00140E.

54

Jean-Paul Carvalho

“Advances in the Economics of Religion” co-edited with Sriya Iyer and Jared

Rubin, Palgrave published 2019.

“Elite Identity and Political Accountability: A Tale of Ten Islands” (with Christian Dippel),

Revise and resubmit The Economic Journal.

“Identity and Underrepresentation'' (with Bary Pradelski), released as working paper.

“Radicalization'' (with Michael Sacks), major revision of “The Economics of religious

Communities: Social Integration, Discrimination and Radicalization”.

Charles Chubb

Chubb C, Chiao C-C, Ulmer, KM, Buresch K, Birk MA, Hanlon RT (2018) Dark scene elements

strongly influence cuttlefish camouflage responses in visually cluttered environments, Vision

Research 149:86-101 DOI: 10.1016/j.visres.2018.06.003.

Mednicoff S, Mejia S, Rashid AR, Chubb C (2018) Many listeners cannot discriminate major vs

minor tone-scrambles regardless of presentation rate, J.Acoust.Soc.Am. 144(4), 2242–2255,

https://doi.org/10.1121/1.5055990.

Sun P, Chubb C, Wright CE, Sperling G (2018) Concurrent grouping of colored dots by similarity

and by dissimilarity: high-capacity, pre-conscious processing. In Press, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. Am.

Rodriguez-Cintron LM, Wright CE, Chubb C, Sperling G (2018) How can observers use

perceived size? Centroid versus mean-size judgments. Journal of Vision, March 2019, Vol.19, 3.

doi:10.1167/19.3.3.

Groulx K, Chubb C, Victor JD, Conte MM (2019) The features that control discrimination of

anisodipole pair. In Press Vision Research.

Lu V, Wright CE, Chubb C, Sperling G (2019) Variation in Target and Distractor Heterogeneity

Impacts performance in the Centroid Task. Journal of Vision, April 2019, Vol.19, 21.

doi:10.1167/19.4.21.

David Eppstein

A. Biniaz, P. Bose, D. Eppstein, A. Maheshwari, P. Morin, and M. Smid. Spanning trees in

multipartite geometric graphs. Algorithmica 80(11):3177–3191, 2018, doi:10.1007/s00453-017-

0375-4, arXiv:1611.01661.

55

C. A. Duncan, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, S. G. Kobourov, and M. Löffler. Planar and poly-arc

Lombardi drawings. Journal of Computational Geometry 9(1):328–355, 2018,

doi:10.7155/jgaa.00457. Special issue on Graph Drawing Beyond Planarity.

O. Aichholzer, M. Biro, E. D. Demaine, M. L. Demaine, D. Eppstein, S. P. Fekete, A. Hesterberg,

I. Kostitsyna, and C. Schmidt. Folding polyominoes into (poly)cubes. Int. J. Computational

Geometry & Applications 28(3):197–226, 2018, doi:10.1142/S0218195918500048,

arXiv:1712.09317.

D. Eppstein. Edge bounds and degeneracy of triangle-free penny graphs and squaregraphs. J.

Graph Algorithms & Applications 22(3):483–499, 2018, doi:10.7155/jgaa.00463. Special issue

for GD 2017.

D. Eppstein. The effect of planarization on width. J. Graph Algorithms & Applications 22(3):461–

481, 2018, doi:10.7155/jgaa.00468. Special issue for GD 2017.

M. J. Bannister and D. Eppstein. Crossing minimization for 1-page and 2-page drawings of graphs

with bounded treewidth. J. Graph Algorithms & Applications 22(4):577–606, 2018,

doi:10.7155/jgaa.00479.

A. Biniaz, P. Bose, K. Crosbie, J.-L. De Carufel, D. Eppstein, A. Maheshwari, and M. Smid.

Maximum plane trees in multipartite geometric graphs. Algorithmica 81(4):1512–1534, 2019,

doi:10.1007/s00453-018-0482-x.

M. J. Bannister, W. E. Devanny, V. Dujmovic , D. Eppstein, and D. R. Wood. Track layouts,

layered path decompositions, and leveled planarity. Algorithmica 81(4):1561–1583, 2019,

doi:10.1007/s00453-018-0487-5.

M. T. de Berg, S. Cabello Justo, O. S. Cheong, D. Eppstein, and C. Knauer. Covering many points

with a small-area box. Journal of Computational Geometry 10(1):207–222, 2019,

doi:10.1007/s00453-018-0482-x, arXiv:1612.02149.

D. Eppstein. Realization and connectivity of the graphs of origami flat foldings. Journal of

Computational Geometry 10(1):257–280, 2019, doi:10.20382/jocg.v10i1a10.

D. Eppstein. Faster evaluation of subtraction games. Proc. 9th Int. Conf. Fun with Algorithms

(FUN 2018), pp. 20:1–20:12. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics

(LIPIcs) 100, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.FUN.2018.20, arXiv:1804.06515.

D. Eppstein. Making change in 2048. Proc. 9th Int. Conf. Fun with Algorithms (FUN 2018), pp.

21:1–21:13. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 100,

2018,doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.FUN.2018.21, arXiv:1804.07396.

56

G. Barequet, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, and N. Mamano. Stable-matching Voronoi diagrams:

combinatorial complexity and algorithms. Proc. 45th International Colloquium on Automata,

Languages, and Programming, pp. 89:1–89:14.

Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 107, 2018,

doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.ICALP.2018.89, arXiv:1804.09411.

J. J. Besa Vial, W. E. Devanny, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, and T. U. Johnson. Optimally

sorting evolving data. Proc. 45th International Colloquium on Automata, Languages, and

Programming, pp. 81:1–81:13.

Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics (LIPIcs) 107, 2018,

doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.ICALP.2018.81, arXiv:1805.03350.

J. Cardinal, E. D. Demaine, D. Eppstein, R. A. Hearn, and A. Winslow. Reconfiguration of

satisfying assignments and subset sums: Easy to find, hard to connect. Proc. 24th International

Computing and Combinatorics Conference (COCOON 2018), pp. 365–377. Springer-Verlag,

Lecture Notes in Computer Science 10976, 2018, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-94776-1_31,

arXiv:1805.04055.

D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, J. Jorgensen, and M. Torres. Geometric fingerprint matching via

oriented point-set pattern matching. Proc. 30th Canadian Conference on Computational Geometry

(CCCG 2018), pp. 98–113, 2018, https://www.cs.umanitoba.ca/~cccg2018/papers/session3A-

p3.pdf.

G. Da Lozza, D. Eppstein, M. T. Goodrich, and S. Gupta. Subexponential-time and FPT

algorithms for embedded flat clustered planarity. Proc. 44th International Workshop on Graph-

Theoretic Concepts in Computer Science (WG 2018), pp. 111–124. Springer-Verlag, Lecture

Notes in Computer Science 11159, 2018, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-00256-5_10, arXiv:1803.05465.

D. Eppstein and E. Havvaei. Parameterized leaf power recognition via embedding into graph

products. Proc. 13th International Symposium on Parameterized and Exact Computation (IPEC

2018), pp. 16:1–16:14. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings in Informatics

(LIPIcs) 115, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.IPEC.2018.16.

D. Eppstein and D. Lokshtanov. The parameterized complexity of finding point sets with

hereditary properties. Proc. 13th International Symposium on Parameterized and Exact

Computation (IPEC 2018), pp. 11:1–11:14. Schloss Dagstuhl, Leibniz International Proceedings

in Informatics (LIPIcs) 115, 2018, doi:10.4230/LIPIcs.IPEC.2018.11.

D. Eppstein. Realization and connectivity of the graphs of origami flat foldings. Proc. 26th Int.

Symp. Graph Drawing and Network Visualization (GD 2018), pp. 541–554. Springer-Verlag,

57

Lecture Notes in Computer Science 11282, 2018, doi:10.1007/978-3-030-04414-5_38,

arXiv:1808.06013.

D. Eppstein and B. Reed. Finding maximal sets of laminar 3-separators in planar graphs in linear

time. Proc. 30th ACM-SIAM Symp. Discrete Algorithms, San Diego, California, 2019, pp. 589–

605, 2019, doi:10.1137/1.9781611975482.37, arXiv:1810.07825.

D. Eppstein. Which women mathematicians get written about on Wikipedia, and why. AWM

Newsletter 48(4):12–14, 2018.

Steve Frank

a. Invariance and pattern

Frank, S. A. and Bascompte, J. 2019. Invariance in ecological pattern. bioRxiv

doi:10.1101/673590. (abstract, preprint)

Frank, S. A. 2019. The common patterns of abundance: the log series and Zipf's law.

F1000Research 8:334. (abstract, reprint, doi)

Frank, S. A. 2019. How to understand common patterns in big data: the case of human collective

memory. Behavioral Sciences 9:40. (abstract, reprint, doi)

b. Unification of fundamental equations in science; natural selection

Frank, S. A. 2018. The Price equation program: simple invariances unify population dynamics,

thermodynamics, probability, information and inference. Entropy 20:978. (abstract, reprint)

Frank, S. A. and Fox, G. A. 2019. The inductive theory of natural selection. Pages 000-000 in The

Theory of Evolution, S. M. Scheiner and D. P. Mindell, eds. University of Chicago Press.

(preprint)

c. Other

Frank, S. A. and Schmid-Hempel, P. 2019. Evolution of negative immune regulators. PLoS

Pathogens (in press). (abstract, preprint)

Frank, S. A. Evolutionary design of regulatory control. II. 2019. Robust error-correcting feedback

increases genetic and phenotypic variability. Journal of Theoretical Biology 468:72-81. (abstract,

reprint, doi)

58

Frank, S. A. Evolutionary design of regulatory control. I. 2019. A robust control theory analysis

of tradeoffs. Journal of Theoretical Biology 463:121-137. (abstract, reprint, doi)

Michelle Garfinkel

Arming and Fighting as Commitment Problems: How Insecurity and Destruction Matter,"

PUBLIC CHOICE, vol. 178 (March 2019) with Constantinos Syropoulos.

Ami Glazer

Glazer, Amihai, Refael Hassin, and Liron Ravner (2018) “A strategic model of job arrivals to a

single machine with earliness and tardiness penalties.” IISE Transactions, 50(4): 265-278.

Glazer, Amihai, Rune Jansen Hagen, and Jorn Rattso (2018) “Help not needed? Optimal quotas

for expatriate NGO workers.” Review of International Economics, 26: 302-321.

Blondiau, Thomas, Amihai Glazer, and Stef Proost (2018) “Air traffic control regulation with

union bargaining in Europe.” Economics of Transportation, 13: 48-60.

Terai, Kimiko, and Amihai Glazer (2018) “Rivalry among agents seeking large budgets.” Journal

of Theoretical Politics, 30(4): 388-409.

Terai, Kimiko, and Amihai Glazer (2019) “Why principals tolerate biases of inaccurate

agents.” Economics and Politics, 31(1): 97-111.

Bernie Grofman

(1) Redistricting and voting rights:

In addition to my role as a Special Master in a racial gerrymandering case in Virginia and

an Amicus Brief in the Supreme Court, I have four new publications in the area of redistricting

and voting rights.

(a) Miller, Peter and Bernard Grofman. 2018. Public Hearings and Congressional

Redistricting: Evidence from the Western United States 2011-2012. Election Law Journal.

(b) Grofman, Bernard. 2018. Crafting a Judicially Manageable Standard for Partisan

Gerrymandering: Five Necessary Elements. Election Law Journal.

(c) Grofman, Bernard and Jonathan Cervas, 2018. Can State Courts Save Us from Partisan

Gerrymandering? Election Law Journal.

(d) Grofman, Bernard. Forthcoming. Partisan Gerrymandering Post-Gill. Election Law

Journal.

59

(2) Parties and elections

(a) Troumpounis, Orestis, Dimitrios Xefteris, and Bernard Grofman. 2018. Electoral

competition with primaries and quality asymmetries. Journal of Politics.

(b) Tan, Netina and Bernard Grofman. Forthcoming. Electoral Rules and Manufacturing a

Legislative Supermajority: Evidence from Singapore. Journal of Commonwealth and

Comparative Studies.

(c) Merrill, Samuel III and Bernard Grofman. Forthcoming. What are the Effects of Entry of

New Extremist Parties on the Policy Platforms of Mainstream Parties? Journal of

Theoretical Politics.

(d) Andre Blais, Shaun Bowler, and Bernard Grofman. Forthcoming. Electoral and Party

Systems in the U.S. and Canada. In Paul Quirk (ed.) Comparing the U.S. and Canada (title

tentative). Oxford University Press.

(e) Brunell, Thomas and Bernard Grofman. 2018. Research Note: Using U.S. Senate

Delegations from the Same State as Paired Comparisons: Evidence for a Reagan

Realignment, PS.

(f) Grofman, Bernard. Forthcoming. Electoral Systems. In Bertrand Badie, Dirk

Berg-Schlosser and Leonardo Morlino (Eds.) International Handbook of Political

Science, 2nd Edition. Sage Publications, Thousand Oaks, CA.

(3) My recent work on constitutional design has focused on the Electoral College.

(a) Cervas, Jonathan and Bernard Grofman. 2017. Why noncompetitive states are so

important for understanding the outcomes of competitive elections: The Electoral College

1868-2016. Public Choice. 173 (3-4): 251-265.

(b) Cervas, Jonathan R, and Bernard Grofman. 2019. Are Presidential

Inversions Inevitable? Comparing Eight Counterfactual Rules for Electing

the US President. Social Sciences Quarterly 100(4): 1322-1335.

(4) With a graduate student, Hannah Kim, I have been looking at the use of Google Scholar in

political science and at patterns of promotion and job mobility within the discipline.

(a) Kim, Hannah and Bernard Grofman. 2019. Research Note: The Political Science 400. PS.

60

(b) Kim, Hannah and Bernard Grofman. 2019. Research Note: Job Mobility, Tenure, and

Promotions in Political Science Ph.D. Granting Departments, 2002-2017: Cohort, Gender

and Citation Count Effects

Simon Huttegger

Simon M. Huttegger (2019): Analogical Predictive Probabilities. Mind 128: 1-37.

Simon M. Huttegger, Hannah Rubin, Kevin J. S. Zollman (accepted). Invariance and Symmetry in

Evolutionary Dynamics. American Philosophical Quarterly.

Marek Kaminski

“Spoiler Effects in Proportional Representation Systems: Evidence from Eight Polish

Parliamentary Elections, 1991-2015.” Public Choice, 2018. Polish translation: Decyzje 30, pp. 5-

31, 2018.

“Modeling rationality: How 20th century mathematics changed the understanding and modeling

of social rationality.” Culture of Modelling in Science (special issue of Dissertationes

Methodologiae). Forthcoming.

“Backward Induction: Merits and Flaws.” In Haman, J., Poleszczuk, J. (Eds.) Formal Models in

Social Sciences (special issue of Studies in Logic, Grammar and Rhetoric) (Vol. 50, pp. 9-24). De

Gruyter. (2017).

Book: (2019). Janosik Podlaski. Józefa Koryckiego prywatna wojna z komunizmem, with Ernest

Szum, 2019, Oficyna Naukowa, Warsaw (pp. 220) (in Polish).

Book Reviews: (2017 The Abilene Paradox and Other Meditations on Management, by Harvey,

J. B., Decisions (in Polish).

Some thoughts on Michael Chwe’s Jane Austen, Game Theorist”, 2018, Decyzje 30, pp. 63-74.

Book by Chwe published by Princeton University Press, 2014.

L. Robin Keller

L. Robin Keller, Jay Simon (Merage PhD alumnus), January 2019,“Preference Functions for

Spatial Risk Analysis”, Risk Analysis, 39(1), pp. 244-256, in Special Issue: Advances in Spatial

Risk Analysis, accepted 7-31-17, submitted 6-2016, Version of Record appeared online in early

61

view prior to print: Sept. 7, 2017,: Abstract Article PDF(1822K). In print in Volume 39,

Issue1, https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12892.

When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these

outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is

the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes.

We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and

utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple

example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be

assessed and applied.

James Leonhardt (Merage PhD alumnus, at Univ. of Nevada, Reno), L. Robin Keller, Fall 2018,

"Do Pictographs Affect Probability Comprehension and Risk Perception of Multiple-Risk

Communications?" Journal of Consumer Affairs, 52(3), pp. 756-769, accepted 12-22-17,

published in Early View on 4-6-2018, http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/joca.12185, Leonhardt-Keller-

JOCA-Final.

Pictographs can be used to visually present probabilistic information using a matrix of icons.

Previous research on pictographs has focused on single rather than multiple-risk options. The

present research conducts a behavioral experiment to assess the effect of pictographs on

probability comprehension and risk perception for single and multiple-risk options. The creation

of the experimental stimuli is informed by a review of the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention’s vaccine information sheets. The results provide initial evidence that, in the context of

childhood vaccines, the inclusion of pictographs alongside numeric (e.g. 1 in 5) probability

information can result in higher probability comprehension and lower risk perception for multiple-

risk options but not for single-risk options. These findings have implications for how health-

related risks are communicated to the public.

Partially funded by a fellowship (Leonhardt) from the Newkirk Center for Science and Society

and conducted under UCI Institutional Review Board’s approved research protocol HS# 2009-

7037.

Cristina del Campo (Merage visitor in 2019 and 2016, Universidad Complutense de Madrid),

Jiaru Bai (UCI Merage PhD alumna, Wake Forest Assistant Professor), L. Robin Keller,

“Comparing Markov and non-Markov Alternatives for Cost-effectiveness Analysis: Insights from

a Cervical Cancer Case”, Operations Research for Health Care. Accepted 4-1-2019, posted online

4-3-19 prior to final proof edits: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211692318301097#!

Markov models allow medical prognosis to be modeled with health state transitions over time and

are particularly useful for decisions regarding diseases where uncertain events and outcomes may

occur. To provide sufficient detail for operations researchers to carry out a Markov analysis, we

present a detailed example of a Markov model with five health states with monthly transitions

with stationary transition probabilities between states to model the cost and effectiveness of two

62

treatments for advanced cervical cancer A different approach uses survival curves to directly

model the fraction of patients in each state at each time period without the Markov property. We

use this alternative method to analyze the cervical cancer case and compare the Markov and non-

Markov approaches. These models provide useful insights about both the effectiveness of

treatments and the associated costs for healthcare decision makers.

Jeffery L. Guyse (Merage alumnus, Technology and Operations Management, College of

Business Administration, California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, California 91768,

JLGuyse@cpp.edu), L. Robin Keller, Candice H. Huynh (Merage alumna, Cal Poly, Pomona,

CandiceHuynh@cpp.edu), “Valuing Sequences of Lives Lost or Saved Over Time: Preference for

Uniform Sequences”, forthcoming, Decision Analysis, accepted June 5, 2019. Author accepted

version dated May 20, 2019.

Policymakers often make decisions involving human mortality risks and monetary outcomes that

span across different time periods and horizons. Many projects or environmental regulation

policies involving risks to life, such as toxic exposures, are experienced over time. The

preferences of individuals on lives lost or saved over time should be understood to implement

effective policies. Using a within-subject survey design, we investigated our participants’ elicited

preferences (in the form of ratings) for sequences of lives saved or lost over time at the participant

level. The design of our study allowed us to directly observe the possible preference patterns of

Negative Time Discounting or a Preference for Spreading from the responses. Additionally, we

embedded factors associated with three other prevalent anomalies of intertemporal choice

(Gain/Loss Asymmetry, Short/Long Asymmetry, and the Absolute Magnitude Effect) into our

study for control. We find that our participants exhibit three of the anomalies: Preference for

Spreading, Absolute Magnitude Effect and Short/Long Term Asymmetry. Furthermore, fitting the

data collected, Loewenstein and Prelec’s model for the valuation of sequences of outcomes

allowed for a more thorough understanding of the factors influencing the individual participants’

preferences. Based on the results, the standard discounting model does not accurately reflect the

value that some people place on sequences of mortality outcomes. Preferences for uniform

sequences should be considered in policymaking, rather than applying the standard discounting

model.

Working paper: Jay Simon (American University associate professor and Merage PhD alumnus),

Don Saari (former UCI IMBS Director), L. Robin Keller, “Interdependent Altruistic Utility

Models".

Michael Lee

Lee, M.D., & Vanpaemel, W. (2018). Determining informative priors for cognitive models.

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 114-127.

Okada, K., Vandekerckhove, J. & Lee, M.D. (2018). Modeling when people quit: Bayesian

censored geometric models with hierarchical and latent-mixture extensions. Behavior Research

Methods, 50, 406-415.

63

Guan, H., & Lee, M.D. (2018). The effect of goals and environments on human performance in

optimal stopping problems. Decision, 5, 339-361.

Steingroever, H., Pachur, T., Smira, M., & Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian techniques for analyzing

group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision

makers. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 951–970.

Lee, M.D., Danileiko, I., & Vi, J. (2018). Testing the ability of the surprisingly popular method to

predict NFL games. Judgment and Decision Making,13, 322-333.

Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian methods for analyzing true-and-error models. Judgment and Decision

Making, 13, 622-635.

Lee, M.D. (2019). A simple and flexible Bayesian method for inferring step changes in

cognition. Behavior Research Methods, 51, 948-960.

Lee, M.D., Gluck, K.A., & Walsh, M.M. (in press). Understanding the complexity of simple

decisions: Modeling multiple behaviors and switching strategies. Decision. Accepted 04-Jan-

2019.

Lee, M.D., Doering, S., & Carr. A. (in press). A model for understanding recognition validity.

Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 8-Jan-2019.

Steingroever, H., Jepma, M., Lee, M.D., Jansen, B.R.J., & Huizenga, H.M. (in press). Modeling

decision strategies in the developmental sciences. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 9-

Jan-2019.

Villarreal, M., Velázquez, C. A., Baroja, J. L., Segura, A., Bouzas, A., & Lee, M.D. (in press).

Bayesian methods applied to the generalized matching law. Journal of the Experimental Analysis

of Behavior. Accepted 15-Jan-2019.

Mistry, P., & Lee, M.D. (in press). Violence in the intifada: A demonstration of Bayesian

generative cognitive modeling.Advances in Econometrics. Accepted 1-Feb-2019.

Lee, M. D., Criss, A. H., Devezer, B., Donkin, C., Etz, A., Leite, F. P., Matzke, D., Rouder, J.N.,

Trueblood, J.S., White, C.N., & Vandekerckhove, J. (in press). Robust modeling in cognitive

science. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 28-Mar-2019.

Michael McBride

M. McBride, forthcoming, “Spatial Models of Religious Market Competition: A Critical

Assessment,” in J.P. Carvalho, S. Iyer, J. Rubin, eds., Advances in the Economics of Religion,

International Economics Association Series, Palgrave Macmillan.

64

T. Chen, M. McBride, M. Short, 2019, “Dynamics of Religious Group Growth and Survival,”

Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 58: 67-92.

Andrew Noymer

Race and life expectancy in the United States in the Great Depression. Tim A. Bruckner, Ashley

M. Ima, Trang T. Nguyen, and Andrew Noymer Genus accepted (2019).

The geometry of mortality change: Convex hulls for demographic analysis. Audrey F. Lai,

Andrew Noymer, and Tsuio Tai Revue Quételet/Quetelet Journal 7(1):27–70 (2019).

Subacute sclerosing panencephalitis mortality, United States, 1979–2016: Vaccine-induced

declines in SSPE deaths. Lia B. Pallivathucal and Andrew Noymer Vaccine 36(35):5222–5225

(2018).

Lisa Pearl

Pearl, L. & Sprouse, J. Under revision. The acquisition of linking theories: A Tolerance Principle

approach to deriving UTAH and rUTAH. Language Acquisition. lingbuzz:

https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/ 004088 .

Pearl, L. Under review. Poverty of the Stimulus Without Tears. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review.

lingbuzz: https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/004646.

Pearl, L. In press. Modeling syntactic acquisition. In J. Sprouse (ed.), Oxford Handbook of

Experimental Syntax. lingbuzz: http://lingbuzz.auf.net/lingbuzz/003416 [downloaded 623 times as

of 6/26/19].

Vogler, N. & Pearl, L. In press. Using linguistically-defined specific details to detect deception

across domains. Natural Language Engineering.

Pearl, L. In press. Leveraging monolingual developmental techniques to better understand

heritage languages. Bilingualism: Language & Cognition. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/

004568

Pearl, L. & Sprouse, J. In press. Comparing solutions to the linking problem using an integrated

quantitative framework of language acquisition. Language. lingbuzz: https://ling.auf. net/

lingbuzz/ 003913.

Bates, A. & Pearl, L. 2019. *What do you think that happens? A quantitative and cognitive

modeling analysis of linguistic evidence across socioeconomic status for learning syntactic

islands. In Proceedings of the 43rd annual Boston University Conference on Language

Development, Somerville, MA: Cascadilla Press.

65

Nguyen, E. & Pearl, L. 2019. Using Developmental Modeling to Specify Learning and

Representation of the Passive in English Children. In Proceedings of the 43rd annual Boston

University Conference on Language Development, Somerville, MA: Cascadilla Press.

Pearl, L. 2019. Fusion is great, and interpretable fusion could be exciting for theory

generation.Perspectives section of Language, 95(1), e109-114. lingbuzz:

https://ling.auf.net/lingbuzz/004142. doi: 10.1353/lan.2019.0002.

Zyg Pizlo

Fleischer, P., Helie, S. & Pizlo, Z. (2018) The role of problem representation in producing near-

optimal TSP tours. Journal of Problem Solving 11, 1-12.

Jayadevan, V., Sawada, T., Delp, E. & Pizlo, Z. (2018) Perception of 3D symmetrical and nearly

symmetrical shapes. Symmetry 10, 344 (doi: 10.3390/sym10080344).

Pizlo, Z. (2019) Unifying physics and psychophysics on the basis of symmetry, least-action

simplicity principle, and conservation laws veridicality. American Journal of Psychology 132,

1-25.

Don Saari

Books:

Mathematics of Finance: An Intuitive Introduction, Springer, September 2019.

Coordinate Systems for Games, with D. Jessie, Birkhauser, 2020.

Papers:

From paired comparisons and cycles to Arrow's Theorem, Chap. 4 in Oxford Handbook of

Public Choice, Oxford University Press, Vol. 1, ed. R. Congleton, B. Grofman, S. Voigt, 2018.

83-103.

Discovering aggregation properties via voting, Vol. 2, New Handbook of Mathematical

Psychology, ed. W. Batchelder, H. Colonius, E. Dzhafarov, Cambridge University Press, 271-

320.

Arrow, and unexpected consequences of his theorem, Public Choice, (179) (2019), 133-144.

66

Stergios Skaperdas

McBride, Michael, Skaperdas, Stergios, and Tsai, Pi-Han, “Why Go to Court? Bargaining Failure

under the Shadow of Trial with Complete Information,” European Journal of Political Economy,

December 2018, 55, 151-168.

Skaperdas, Stergios and Vaidya, Samarth, “Contested Political Persuasion,” Ch. 33 in Congleton,

R., Grofman, B. and Voigt, S. (eds), The Oxford Handbook of Public Choice, 2019, Oxford

University Press.

Skaperdas, Stergios and Vaidya, Samarth, “Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God

Religions?,” forthcoming in Public Choice.

Gregory Scontras

Degen, Judith, Andreas Trotzke, Gregory Scontras, Eva Wittenberg, and Noah D. Good-

man. 2019. Definitely, maybe: A new experimental paradigm for investigating the prag-

matics of evidential devices across languages. Journal of Pragmatics 140, 33–48.

doi:10.1016/j.pragma.2018.11.015.

Rosales, Cesar Manuel, Jr., and Gregory Scontras. On the role of conjunction in adjective

ordering preferences. Proceedings of the Linguistic Society of America 32:1–12.

Samonte, Suttera, and Gregory Scontras. Adjective ordering in Tagalog: A cross-linguistic

comparison of subjectivity-based preferences. Proceedings of the Linguistic Society of Amer-

ica 33:1–13.

Scontras, Gregory, Judith Degen, and Noah D. Goodman. On the grammatical source of

adjective ordering preferences. To appear in Semantics and Pragmatics.

Polinsky, Maria, and Gregory Scontras. Understanding heritage languages. To appear in

Bilingualism: Language and Cognition.

Brian Skyrms

Ultilitarianism from the Perspective of Modern Psychology, Louis Narens and Brian Skyrms,

Oxford Publishing, 2018.

Hal Stern

Risbrough, V.B., Glynn, L.M., Davis, E.P., Sandman, C.A., Obenaus, A., Stern, H.S., Keator,

D.B., Yassa, M.A., Baram, T.Z., and Baker, D.G. (2018) “Does Anhedonia Presage Increased

67

Risk of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder?” Current Topics in Behavioral Neurosciences, 38, 249-

266. https://doi.org/10.1007/7854_2018_51.

Stern, H. S., Blower, D., Cohen, M.L., Czeisler, C.A., Dinges, D.F., Greenhouse, J.B., Guo, F.,

Hanowski, R.J., Hartenbaum, N.P., Krueger, G.P., Mallis, M.M., Pain, R.F., Rizzo, M., Sinha, E.,

Small, D.S., Stuart, E.A., Wegman, D.H. (2019) “Data and Methods for Studying Commercial

Motor Vehicle Driver Fatigue, Highway Safety and Long-Term Driver Health,” Accident

Analysis & Prevention, 126, 37-42. (Epub 2018 Feb 22).

Glynn, L.M., Stern, H.S., Howland, M.A., Risbrough, V.B., Baker, D.G., Nievergelt, C.M.,

Baram, T.Z., and Davis, E.P. (2019) “Measuring Novel Antecedents of Mental Illness: The

Questionnaire of Unpredictability in Childhood,” Neuropsychopharmacology, 44, 876-882. (Epub

2018 Nov 23) https://doi.org/10.1038/s41386-018-0280-9.

Vegetabile, B.V., Stout-Oswald, S.A., Davis, E.P., Baram, T.Z., Stern, H.S. (2019) “Estimating

the Entropy Rate of Finite Markov Chains with Application to Behavior Studies,” Journal of

Educational and Behavioral Statistics, 44(3), 282-308. (Epub 2019 Jan 30)

https://doi.org/10.3102/1076998618822540.

Jiang, S., Kamei, N., Bolton, J.L., Ma, X., Stern, H.S., Baram,T.Z., Mortazavi, A. (2019) “Intra-

individual Methylomics Detects the Impact of Early-life Adversity,” Life Science Alliance, Epub

2019 Apr 1. https://doi.org/10.26508/lsa.201800204.

Rein Taagepera

Oliver Nahkur and R. Taagepera, 2019. Was Pinker on the right track? The speed of recent

decline in violence and gender inequality. Comparative Sociology 18:2:148-172.

R. Taagepera, 2018. Science walks on two legs, but social sciences try to hop on one.

International Political Science Review 34:1:145-159.

68

E. TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES

APPENDIX C IMBS TECHNICAL REPORTS, 2018 - 2019

MBS 19-01

With potential games; which outcome is better

Santiago Guisasola and Donald G. Saari

69

F. FACULTY PRESENTATIONS

APPENDIX D

COLLOQUIA AND CONFERENCES OF IMBS MEMBERS, 2018 - 2019

Michael Birnbaum

Birnbaum, M. H., & Quispe-Torreblanca, E. G. (2018). To err is human, but a human error is

nothing to what a computer can do. 56th Annual Edwards Bayesian Research Conference,

Fullerton, CA. March 2, 2018.

Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). True and error models for testing algebraic models in the presence of

error. Mathematical Psychology Meetings, Madison, WI. July, 2018.

Birnbaum, M. H. (2018). Testing models of decision making in the presence of error: A new

extension of true and error theory. Conference on Decision Sciences, Konstanz, Germany.

September 27, 2018.

Jan K. Brueckner

International

Higher School of Economics, Moscow, March 2019 (three lectures supported by US Embassy

visitors program).

Air Transport Research Society conference, Seoul, July 2018 (keynote speaker).

ITEA Conference on Transportation Economics, Hong Kong, July 2018.

Domestic

UCLA-UCI-USC Urban and Real Estate Research Day, USC, April 2019. California State

University, Long Beach, March 2019.

UC Center, Sacramento, February 2019.

American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association Meetings, Atlanta, January 2019.

Conference on Regional and Urban Economics (CURE), Philadelphia, November 2018.

Urban Economics Association meetings, New York, October 2018.

70

5rd Urbanization and Poverty Reduction Research Conference, World Bank, September 2018.

Carter Butts

Invited Talks

Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Better Baselines for Social (and Other) Network Models.'' Invited

Lecture, Statistics Colloquium, University of California-Riverside. Riverside, CA.

Butts, Carter T. (5/2019). ``Advances in Exponential Family Random Graph Modeling:

Parameterization, Assessment, and Understanding.'' Invited Presentation, 20th Anniversary

Conference of the Center for Statistics in the Social Sciences, University of Washington. Seattle,

WA.

Butts, Carter T. (5/2019). ``Large Scale Network Structure, Ecological Disruption, and Network

Dynamics.'' Invited Presentation, Workshop on Multi-scale Theory on Coupled Human Mobility

and Environmental Change, University of Floria. Gainesville, FL.

Conference Presentations

Sutton, Jeannette; Renshaw, Scott L.; Gardner, Richard E. III; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley,

Robert; Vos, Sarah C.; Gibson, C. Ben; Yu, Yue; and Butts, Carter T. (7/2019). ``Social Media

Engagement Strategies and Message Retransmission Across Threat Contexts.'' Natural Hazards

Workshop, Broomfield, CO.

Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Contact-formation Mechanisms for ERGM Reference Measures with

Local Dependence.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.

Gardner, Richard E. III and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Humans vs. Bots: Fake News Bot

Analysis from Twitter Hazard Data.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal,

Canada.

Lee, Francis and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Modeling Group Boundary Maintenance in

ERGMs.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.

Phillips, Nolan; Yin, Fan; and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``A New HOPE: Held-Out Predictive

Evaluation (HOPE) for Exponential Family Random Graph Models.'' 39th Sunbelt Network

Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.

Renshaw, Scott L.; Yu, Yue; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert; Sutton, Jeannette; and Butts,

Carter T. (6/2019). ``From Experimental to Supplemental: The Evolution of NWS’ Use of

71

Twitter for Hazard Communication.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal,

Canada.

Sutton, Jeannette; Renshaw, Scott L.; Vos, Sarah C.; Olson, Michele K.; Prestley, Robert; and

Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Longitudinal Engagement and Audience Attention: Message

Contents and Features that Get Passed On.'' 47th Conference on Broadcast Meteorology,

American Meteorological Association, San Diego, CA.

Grazioli, Gianmarc; Yu, Yue; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts, Carter T.

(5/2019). ``Network Hamiltonians for Modeling Amyloid Fibril Formation.'' SoCal Theoretical

Chemistry Conference, Los Angeles, CA.

Grazioli, Gianmarc; Yu, Yue; Unhelkar, Megha H.; Martin, Rachel W.; Butts, Carter T. (3/2019).

``Network-based Modeling of Amyloid Fibril Formation.'' Biophysical Society Annual Meeting,

Baltimore, MD.

Unhelkar, Megha H.; Duong, Vy T.; Grazioli, Gianmarc; Kelly, John E.; Yu, Yue; Butts, Carter

T.; and Martin, Rachel W. (3/2019). ``Protein Discovery and Characterization Using Molecular

Modeling.'' Biophysical Society Annual Meeting, Baltimore, MD.

Butts, Carter T. (12/2018). ``Predicting Potential Pathways of Network Change from

Distributional Models.'' 2nd North American Social Networks Meeting, Washington, DC.

Lee, Francis; and Butts, Carter T. (12/2018). ``Modeling Stigma in ERGMs.'' 2nd North

American Social Networks Meeting, Washington, DC.

Smith, Emily; Butts, Carter T.; Hipp, John; and Nagle, Nicholas N. (12/2018). ``The

Multiplexity and Locality of Job Lead Ties.'' 2nd North American Social Networks Meeting,

Washington, DC.

Yu, Yue; Grazioli, Giamarc; Phillips, Nolan; and Butts, Carter T. (12/2018). ``Local Graph

Stability in Exponential Family Random Graph Models.'' 2nd North American Social Networks

Meeting, Washington, DC.

Thomas, Loring and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Entry and Exit Dynamics using Generalized

Location Systems and TERGM.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.

Yin, Fan and Butts, Carter T. (6/2019). ``Approximate Bayesian Computation for ERGMs via

Copula Model.'' 39th Sunbelt Network Conference (INSNA), Montreal, Canada.

Bierma, Jan; Kelly, John E.; Payne, Brooke; Kim, Suhn H.; Butts, Carter T.; and Martin, Rachel

W. (8/2018). ``Darwin's Ferment: Droserasins and Nepenthesins from the Drosera capensis

Genome.'' International Carnivorous Plant Society Meeting, Santa Rosa, CA.

72

Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``A Dynamic Process Interpretation of the Sparse ERGM Reference

Model.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.

Lee, Francis; Krivitsky, Pavel; and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Extending the Ranked

Exponential Random Graph Modeling Framework to Network Data from Subjective Ratings.''

ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.

Phillips, Nolan and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Held-Out Predictive Evaluation (HOPE) of

Exponential Family Random Graph Models.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.

Smith, Emily J; Hipp, John R.; Nagle, Nicholas N.; and Butts, Carter T. (8/2018). ``Spatial and

Social Embeddedness of Emergency Contact Ties.'' ASA Meeting, Philadelphia, PA.

Unhelkar, Megha H.; Zhang, Xuhong; Kelly, John E.; Duong, Vy; Bierma, Jan; Roskamp, Kyle

W.; Tair, Seemal; Kaosoluchi, N. Enendu; Frietes, J. Alfredo; Martin, Rachel W.; and Butts,

Carter T. (8/2018). ``Enzyme Discovery from the Drosera capensis Genome.'' International

Carnivorous Plant Society Meeting, Santa Rosa, CA.

Jean-Paul Carvalho

“The Economics of religious Communities: Social Integration, Discrimination and

Radicalization”, CEPR Conference on The Economics of Religion, Venice, June 2019.

“Norms of Identity”, ERINN Workshop on Social Norms, Oxford, June 2019.

“Identity and Underrepresentation'', ThReD Conference, Notre Dame, May 2019.

“Identity and Underrepresentation'', Department of Economics seminar series, University of

Oregon, March 2019.

“Identity and Underrepresentation'', IMBS Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms,

UC Irvine, March 2019.

“Identity and Underrepresentation'', ASREC Annual Conference, Boston, March 2019.

Charles Chubb

Comishen KJ, Wong-Kee-You AM, Chubb C, & Adler SA (Paper to be presented by KJ

Comishen at the 21st International Congress of Infant Studies, July 2018, Philadelphia) Bimodal

distribution of performance in discriminating major/minor modes in 6-month-old infants.

73

Chen C-C, Hsiao YL, Chubb C (talk presented by C-C Chen at the annual meeting of the Vision

Sciences Society, St Petersburg, FL, May 18, 2019) Extracting image statistics by human and

machine observers.

David Eppstein

"Stable-matching Voronoi diagrams", invited plenary talk, 21st Japan Conf. Discrete &

Computational Geometry, Graphs, and Games, Manila, Philippines, September 2018.

Steve Frank

Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, Invited Keynote for graduate

student symposium, Theoretical Biology Research retreat Keynote, October 2018

Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, Invited Keynote for graduate

student symposium, EAWAG/ETH Zürich, November 2018

Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, Headline Seminar Series in

Ecology & Evolution, University of Zürich, February 2019

Mitochondria and male disease; somatic mosaicism; infective dose, University of Basel, February

2019

Three conjectures on organismal design, Osnabrück, Germany, May 2019

Ami Glazer

“Factors Determining Plant Locations and Plant Survival” 2019 Public Choice Society Annual

Meetings, March 14-16, Louisville KY

Simon Huttegger

“Rethinking Convergence to the Truth,” Seminar on Logic Probability, and Games, Columbia

University,

April 2019

“Generalized Learning and Conditional Expectation,” Caltech, April 2019

“Rethinking Convergence to the Truth”, Salzburg-Irvine-Munich Workshop, Munich, March 2019

“The Problem of Dishonest Signaling”, Workshop on Signaling at NeurIPS, Montreal, December

2018

74

“Gregory Kavka on Moral Paradoxes of Nuclear Deterrence”, Symposium on The Nuclear Threat

in the 21s Century, Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies, UCI, October 2018

“Kolmogorov Conditioning and Radical Probabilism”, 2018 PSA Meeting, Seattle, November

2018

Kimberly A. Jameson

Jameson, K. A. (2018). “Modeling color vision in relation to individual color perception and

photopigment opsin genotypes .” Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences Colloquium

series, May 31, 2018.

Jameson, K. A. (2018). “Color perception in tetrachromatic genotypes.” Invited Color Vision

Colloquium. University of Reno, Nevada, November 13, 2018.

Jameson, K. A. (2019). “Visual Processing Phenotypes and Photopigment Opsin Genetics.”

Invited Lecture at the UC Irvine School of Medicine’s Gavin Herbert Eye Institute - 6th annual

Bench to Beside Symposium March 9, 2019.

Jameson, K. A., K. Joe, T. A. Satalich, V. Bochko, S. Atilano & M. C. Kenney. (2018). “Color

perception in observers with varying photopigment opsin genotypes”, Invited Presentation at the

Donald I.A. MacLeod Symposium at the Optical Society of America Fall Vision Meeting.

University of Reno, Nevada, September 22, 2018

Chan, C., A. Khan, & J. Luu with mentors K. Joe, L. Arroyo, K. A. Jameson, S. Gago, & L.

Narens. (2019).“Investigating the Impact of Personality on the Decision-Making Process of

Interpersonal Utility Comparisons.” UC Irvine UROP Symposium, June 2019.

Mina Jiang with mentors K. Joe, K.A. Jameson, & L. Narens. .(2019)“A Variation of an

Evolutionary Game Theoretic Framework for Color Categorization Using Replicator Dynamics.”

UC Irvine UROP Symposium, June 2019.

Kirbi C. Joe, V. A. Bochko, T. A. Satalich, S. R. Atilano, M. C. Kenney, & K. A. Jameson.

(2019). Second Prize Poster Award. Investigating Variations in Color Perception among Artist

and Non-artist Participants with Varying Photopigment Opsin Genotypes. UC Irvine, School of

Medicine. Gavin Herbert Eye Institute’s 6th Annual Bench to Bedside Symposium. March 9,

2019 Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center; 100 Academy Drive, Irvine, CA 92617.

Doan, J., Frambach, C., Yuh, C., White, K., Chen, Y., Mehta, M., Kenney, M. C., Jameson, K. A.,

Browne, A. W. (2019) “Evaluating color vision deficiency in patients with epiretinal membranes

and its association with retinal surface defects” The Association for Research in Vision and

Ophthalmology Annual Conference, April 29 - May 2 2019, Vancouver, BC, Canada.

75

Yuh, C., Frambach, C., Doan, J., White, K., Chen, Y., Kenney, M. C., Jameson, K. A., Browne,

A. W. (2019). “Comparing Digital Cone Contrast Threshold assessment in Healthy Normal

Individuals with Conventional Standardized Color Vision Diagnostics.” The Association for

Research in Vision and Ophthalmology Annual Conference, April 29 - May 2 2019, Vancouver,

BC, Canada.

Bochko, V. A. & K. A. Jameson. (2018) Investigating Potential Human Tetrachromacy in

Individuals with Tetrachromat Genotypes Using Multispectral Techniques. Poster presented at

The Munsell Centennial Color Symposium. March 23, 2018 Boston, MA.

Bochko, V. A. & K. A. Jameson. (2018) Investigating Potential Human Tetrachromacy in

Individuals with Tetrachromat Genotypes Using Multispectral Techniques. Third Prize Poster

Award. Gavin Herbert Eye Institute’s 5th Annual Bench to Bedside Symposium. March 23, 2018

Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center; 100 Academy Drive, Irvine, CA 92617.

Marek Kaminski

"Spoiler Effects in Proportional Representation Systems” Center for the Study of Democracy,

Irvine, 4/17/201

"Spoiler Effects in Proportional Representation Systems” Public Choice Society Annual Meeting,

Charleston, 3/2/2018

"Prison subculture in communist Poland", Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation,

University of California, Irvine, 10/27/2017.

"Electoral Reform and its Potential Consequences (talk for a city mayors' club)", Adam Smith

Center, Warsaw, Poland, 9/18/2017.

"PR versus SMD: Tradeoff between vote quality and higher turnout?” Public Choice Annual

Conference, Louisville, 3/16/2019.

"PR versus SMD: Tradeoff between vote quality and higher turnout?” UCI Center for the Study of

Democracy, Problems of Democracy Workshop, April 22 2019

L. Robin Keller

L. Robin Keller, Ramsey Medalist Panel Chair and Panelist, Advances in Decision Analysis

conference at Bocconi University, Milan, Italy, June 19-21, 2019, sponsored by the Decision

Analysis Society of INFORMS.

76

L. Robin Keller, panelist and mentor at Women in Economics and Business Workshop, April 26,

2019, UC Irvine, organized by graduate students.

L. Robin Keller, “Spatial Preference Models with Multiple Objectives across Multiple Geographic

Regions”, Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Science, UCI, invited colloquium speaker, Dec.

6, 2018.

Jeffery L. Guyse (Presenter, Merage alumnus, Cal Poly Pomona), L Robin Keller, Candice Huynh

(Merage alumna, Cal Poly Pomona), “Valuing Sequences of Lives Lost or Saved Over Time:

Preference for Uniform Sequences”, invited talk in session on Behavioral Decision Analysis with

Mortality and Health Outcomes, co-chaired by Keller and Guyse, INFORMS Annual Meeting,

Phoenix, Nov. 2018.

Jeffery L. Guyse, Candice Huynh (presenter), L Robin Keller, “Lives Saved vs. Lives Lost in

Survey Research: Investigating Methodological Consistency”, invited talk in session on

Behavioral Decision Analysis with Mortality and Health Outcomes, co-chaired by Keller and

Guyse, INFORMS Annual Meeting, Phoenix, Nov. 2018.

Jay Simon (presenter) and L. Robin Keller, “Preferences in Spatial Decision Making”, EURO

conference, July 2018, Valencia, Spain.

Michael Lee

Lee, M.D., & Vanpaemel, W. (2018). Determining informative priors for cognitive models.

Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 114-127.

Okada, K., Vandekerckhove, J. & Lee, M.D. (2018). Modeling when people quit: Bayesian

censored geometric models with hierarchical and latent-mixture extensions. Behavior Research

Methods, 50, 406-415.

Guan, H., & Lee, M.D. (2018). The effect of goals and environments on human performance in

optimal stopping problems. Decision, 5, 339-361.

Steingroever, H., Pachur, T., Smira, M., & Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian techniques for analyzing

group differences in the Iowa Gambling Task: A case study of intuitive and deliberate decision

makers. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 25, 951–970.

Lee, M.D., Danileiko, I., & Vi, J. (2018). Testing the ability of the surprisingly popular method to

predict NFL games. Judgment and Decision Making,13, 322-333.

Lee, M.D. (2018). Bayesian methods for analyzing true-and-error models. Judgment and Decision

Making, 13, 622-635.

Lee, M.D. (2019). A simple and flexible Bayesian method for inferring step changes in

cognition. Behavior Research Methods, 51, 948-960.

77

Lee, M.D., Gluck, K.A., & Walsh, M.M. (in press). Understanding the complexity of simple

decisions: Modeling multiple behaviors and switching strategies. Decision. Accepted 04-Jan-

2019.

Lee, M.D., Doering, S., & Carr. A. (in press). A model for understanding recognition validity.

Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 8-Jan-2019.

Steingroever, H., Jepma, M., Lee, M.D., Jansen, B.R.J., & Huizenga, H.M. (in press). Modeling

decision strategies in the developmental sciences. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 9-

Jan-2019.

Villarreal, M., Velázquez, C. A., Baroja, J. L., Segura, A., Bouzas, A., & Lee, M.D. (in press).

Bayesian methods applied to the generalized matching law. Journal of the Experimental Analysis

of Behavior. Accepted 15-Jan-2019.

Mistry, P., & Lee, M.D. (in press). Violence in the intifada: A demonstration of Bayesian

generative cognitive modeling.Advances in Econometrics. Accepted 1-Feb-2019.

Lee, M. D., Criss, A. H., Devezer, B., Donkin, C., Etz, A., Leite, F. P., Matzke, D., Rouder, J.N.,

Trueblood, J.S., White, C.N., & Vandekerckhove, J. (in press). Robust modeling in cognitive

science. Computational Brain & Behavior. Accepted 28-Mar-2019.

Mike McBride

M, McBride, "Beliefs Also Make Social-Norm Preferences Social," Department of Economics,

Clemson University, Sept 2018

Andrew Noymer

Conferences

Human Mortality Database Symposium 2019, Berlin • Using Benford’s law to assess life table

ensembles: HMD and WHO model life tables

NBER Cohort Studies Meeting 2019, Cambridge • Race and life expectancy in the United States

in the Great Depression. With Tim A. Bruckner, Ashley M. Ima, and Trang T. Nguyen.

Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America 2019, Austin

Unraveling the social ecology of polio. With Amarah Mauricio. Session 40. & Measles deaths in

the United States, 1890–2016: Age profiles and sex differences help explain pre-vaccine mortality

decline. With Stephanie Torrez. Session 1975.

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UC Irvine Mini Conference on Economic History. 2018. • Race and polio mortality in the United

States, 1914–69. With Amarah C. Mauricio. [by invitation]

The social impact of epidemics: Workshop marking 100 years of the 1918 Great Flu Epidemic.

Oslo, 2018. • Race and mortality: The twentieth-century polio epidemic in the United States. With

Amarah C. Mauricio.

XVIII World Economic History Congress, 2018 • Unraveling the social ecology of polio. With

Amarah C. Mauricio. Session 030209.

Population, family and health: Global perspectives. Academia Sinica, 2018 • The demographic

transition in Taiwan and USA: A convex hull approach. With Ivy K. Miller. Session 1. [by

invitation]

Colloquia

Race and mortality: The twentieth-century polio epidemic in the United States

UC Irvine, Sociology Department, 25 January 2019

“Summertime, and the livin’ is easy”, or, using seasonal demographic data to answer policy-

relevant questions, L’Observatoire sociologique du changement (OSC), Sciences Po, Paris, 7

December 2018.

Marking the 100th anniversary of the 1918 ‘Spanish’ flu pandemic: Selective mortality and the

impact on other diseases, Center for Studies in Demography and Ecology, University of

Washington, Seattle, 9 November 2018.

Measles mortality in the United States, 1890–2016: Why did deaths decline before the vaccine?

Dondena Seminar, Bocconi University, 17 September 2018.

C-DASA Seminar, UC Irvine, 5 February 2019.

Lisa Pearl

Arguments from acquisition for how to solve the linking problem. Linguistics Colloquium,

University of Maryland, College Park. May 2019. Postponed for medical reasons, but youtube

videos available: intro, part 1, part 2, takeaway.

Quantitative approaches to learning linking theories in language. Institute for Mathemat- ical

Behavioral Sciences, University of California, Irvine. November 2018.

What input gap is there across socioeconomic status for complex syntax? A quanti- tative and

cognitive modeling analysis of linguistic evidence for learning syntactic islands. (with Alandi

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Bates) Boston University Conference on Language Development 43, Boston, MA. November

2018.

Using developmental modeling to specify learning and representation of the passive in English

children. (with Emma Nguyen) Boston University Conference on Language Development 43,

Boston, MA. November 2018.

Child behavior in truth-value judgments: The pragmatics of ambiguity resolution. (with Greg

Scontras) Conference on Interdisciplinary Approaches to Linguistic Theory 2, Berlin, Summer

2018.

Using developmental modeling to specify learning and representation of the passive in English

children. (with Emma Nguyen) 8th Generative Approaches to Language Acquisition North

America Conference, Indiana University, Bloomington, Summer 2018.

Zyg Pizlo

The role of symmetry in vision and image processing. Keynote at the Conference on Human

Vision and Electronic Imaging, International Symposium on Electronic Imaging, San Francisco.

January 2019.

Symmetry is the sine qua non of 3D shape. Annual Interdisciplinary Conference, Jackson Hole,

WY. February, 2019.

The role of symmetry in veridical 3D vision: can visual science be a hard science? Cognitive

Forum, UCLA. February 2019.

Contour integration in real images. Modvis Workshop: Computational and Mathematical

Modeling in Vision. St. Pete Beach, FL. May 2019.

Donald Saari

International Rationality Summer Institute, Irsee Germany, Sept. 2018, four 90-minute lectures on

“Theory of Voting.

International Seminar ``Systems Analysis of Earth Science Data", Nov. 2018 Russian Academy

of Sciences “Power of system thinking in the social and physical sciences."

University of Tampere, Tampere, Finland / Oct. 2018 “From voting paradoxes to the dark matter

challenge of astronomy."

National University of Science and Technology, Moscow / Nov. 2018, “The behavioral sciences:

How can we model what we do not understand?"

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Colloquium, Mathematics, Indiana U-Purdue U at Indianapolis / Feb. 2019, “From the theory of

voting to the compelling dark matter mystery"

Greg Scontras

Refereed:

Lund, Gunnar, Becky Jarvis, and Gregory Scontras. 2018. The pragmatics of semantic

change: Modeling the progressive-to-imperfective shift. Sinn und Bedeutung (SuB) 23.

Lund, Gunnar, Becky Jarvis, and Gregory Scontras. 2018. The progressive-to-imperfective

shift: What computational pragmatics can tell us about diachronic semantics. Formal

Diachronic Semantics (FoDS) 3.

Scontras, Gregory, Lisa Pearl, and K.J. Savinelli. 2018. Child behavior in truth-value

judgments: The pragmatics of ambiguity resolution. Conference on Interdisciplinary

Approaches to Linguistic Theory (CIALT) 2.

Rosales, Cesar M. Jr., and Gregory Scontras. 2019. On the role of conjunction in

adjective ordering preferences. The 93rd Annual Meeting of the Linguistic Society of

America.

Samonte, Suttera, and Gregory Scontras. 2019. Adjective ordering in Tagalog: A cross- linguistic

comparison of subjectivity-based preferences. The 93rd Annual Meeting of the Linguistic Society

of America. *Winner of the Committee on Ethnic Diversity in Linguistics travel award (to S.

Samonte)

Scontras, Gregory, Asya Achimova, Christian Stegemann, and Martin Butz. 2019. The

added informativity of ambiguous utterances. Poster presented at Experimental

Pragmatics (XPRAG).

Franke, Michael, Gregory Scontras, and Mihael Simonic. 2019. The evolutionary pressure

for subjectivity-based adjective ordering preferences. Poster presented at the Workshop on

Interaction and the Evolution of Linguistic Complexity.

Invited:

“Scope ambiguity and heritage languages.” October 18, 2018. University of Tubingen.

“The role of subjectivity in adjective ordering preferences.” October 30, 2018. Goethe

University Frankfurt.

“On the purpose of ambiguous language.” February 23, 2019. University of Tubingen.

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“The added informativity of ambiguous language.” Stanford SemFest. March 15, 2019.

Stanford University.

“The pragmatics of truth-value judgments.” SemanticsBabble. April 23, 2019. UC San

Diego.

“Lesser-studied heritage languages” (with Michael Putnam). Heritage Language Re-

search Institute. June 11, 2019. University of New Mexico

Stergios Skaperdas

“External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War,” 19th Jan Tinbergen Peace Conference, Network

of European Peace Scientists, The Hague, Netherlands, June 24, 2019.

“External Intervention, Identity, and Civil War,” Workshop on “Economics, Security, and

Politics,” Ecole Militaire, Paris, May 23, 2019.

“Greece, the Eurozone, and the EU: Context and Prospects,” University of Paris 13 seminar, May

28, 2019.

“Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” Conference on the “Predatory State,”

University of Paris 13, May 20, 2019.

“Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” brown-bag lunch presentation,

Chapman University, May 1, 2019

“Why Did Pre-Modern States Adopt Big-God Religions?” Association for the Study of Religion,

Economics, and Culture (ASREC) conference, March 1-2, 2019, Boston, MA.

Brian Skyrms

Keynote: “Signaling Games,” BICT 2019, Carnegie Mellon, March 2019.

From Demcritus to signaling networks, IMBS Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social

Norms, UC Irvine, March 2019.

Hal Stern

“An Introduction to Statistical Thinking for Forensic Practitioners,” International Association for

Identification Annual Meeting, San Antonio, TX (15 students), August 2018.

“The Role of Statistics in Improving Forensic Science”, Joint Statistical Meetings, Vancouver,

BC, August 2018.

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“Continuous Improvement in Academic Publishing”, Joint Statistical Meetings, Vancouver, BC,

August 2018.

“Gatekeepers of Statistical Scientific Evidence: Legal, Ethical and Educational Responsibilities of

Judges and Lawyers” (panel), American Bar Association, Chicago, IL, August 2018.

“Statistics 101: Forensic Statistics and the Assessment of Probative Value”, National Forensic

Science Symposium, Department of Justice, Washington, DC, August 2018.

“The Rise of Data”, ICS: The Next 50 Years (panel presentation), University of California, Irvine,

CA, October 2018.

“Forensic Statistics and the Probative Value of Evidence”, Organization of Scientific Area

Committees (OSAC) for Forensic Science (in-person meeting), Phoenix, AZ, December 2018.

“Optimal Covariate Balance for Causal Inference in Observational Studies”, Johnson and

Johnson, Irvine, CA January 2019.

“The Rise of Data in Science and Society” (keynote address), Halcioglu Data Science Institute

1 year anniversary symposium, University of California, San Diego, March 2019.

“Bayesian Statistical Analysis,” Yau Mathematical Sciences Center, Tsinghua University,

Beijing, China (10 students), April 2019.

April 2019“Forensic Statistics and the Assessment of Probative Value”, Legal Training

Workshop, Madison County (IL) Government Center, Edwardsville, IL (40 participants), April

2019.

“Forensic Statistics and the Assessment of Probative Value”, Legal Training Workshop, Office of

the Cook County (IL) Public Defender, Chicago, IL (7 participants), May 2019.

“To P-value or Not to P-value: What is a Scientist to Do”, UCI Biological Sciences/School of

Medicine Faculty Retreat, Costa Mesa, CA, May 2019.

“Statistics 1 & 2: A case-based introduction to probability theory”, ABA Criminal Justice

Division’s Tenth Annual Prescription for Criminal Justice Forensics Program, New York, NY,

May 2019.

“An Update from the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence”, ABA Criminal

Justice Division’s Tenth Annual Prescription for Criminal Justice Forensics Program, New York,

NY, May 2019.

“Statistical Issues in Forensic Science”, NACDL Cardozo Law National Forensic College, New

York, NY, June 2019.

83

G. FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS

APPENDIX E IMBS FACULTY AWARDS AND ACHIEVEMENTS, 2018 – 2019

Carter Butts

Elected Fellow, AAAS.

Received the William D. Richards Software Award (as part of the statnet development team) for

the statnet Library for R from the International Network for Social Network Analysis.

Served as chair of the ASA Section on Mathematical Sociology.

Served on the council of the ASA Section on Methodology.

I continue to serve on the Board of Reviewing Editors for Science.

Jean- Paul Carvalho

Chair, Falmagne Chair recruitment committee, IMBS, 2019.

Faculty instructor, ASREC Economics of Religion Graduate Workshop, March 2019.

Discussant, ASREC Annual Conference, March 2019.

Organizer, Conference on Cultural Evolution and Social Norms, IMBS, March 2019.

Faculty discussant, IRES Graduate Workshop, Chapman University, May 2019.

Microeconomics, PhD Qualifying Committee.

Michelle Garfinkel

Editorial board of the Journal of Conflict Resolution.

Editorial board of the Journal of Economics and Business.

Editorial board European Journal of Political Economy.

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Ami Glazer

I have had opinion pieces published by Business Insider, and the Los Angeles Times. A piece

distributed by The Conversation has had more than 16,000 readers. I was interviewed on PBS

Nightly Business Report.

Bernie Grofman

My work on redistricting has been noted in a number of major media, including the New York

Times, and I co-authored a 2019 op-ed on partisan gerrymandering in the Monkey Cage section of

the Washington Post.

Kimberly A. Jameson

2016-present: Jameson regularly mentors and financially supports Social Science graduate student

research, and theses, as well as student researchers from UCIs Medical School and School of

Engineering from research funding awards she has obtained.

2017-present: Jameson has actively served as a reviewer of proposals for extra- mural funding

(e.g., Swiss National Science Foundation, National Science Foundations).

2017-present: She actively participates in IMBS review committees (e.g., 2018 IMBS

Postdoctoral Applicant Review, 2019 IMBS Faculty hiring committee).

Marek Kaminski

Several reviews of my books Gry Wiezienne (Games Prisoners Play), Single-member Districts

and Majoritarian Electoral Laws, and Janosik Podlaski, and related articles including:

2018 Ernest Szum, "Bez wyroku: Postscriptum do losów Józefa Koryckiego

(No trial: The ending of Józef Korycki's story)," Radzyński Rocznik

Humanistyczny (in Polish)

2017 Bartłomiej Michalak, "Ordynacja większościowa (Majoritarian

electoral laws)," Przegląd Sejmowy (in Polish).

2017 Zdzisław Ilski, "Ordynacja większościowa (Majoritarian electoral

laws)," Wrocławskie Studia Politologiczne (in Polish).

6/11/2019 Discussion of my book “Janosik Podlaski” on Polish Radio (1h 20 min)

http://archiwum.radiopodlasie.pl/NEW/2019/06/11/rozmowa-z-

miroslawem-andrzejewskim-2/

85

L. Robin Keller

One of 10 women interviewed and spotlighted for longtime contributions to operations research:

Kara Tucker, “Powerful, pragmatic pioneers: Personal profiles of 10 pillars of the O.R. profession

who blazed trails, broke barriers and busted down doors for others to follow (plus one 'Rising

Star')”, OR/MS Today, 46(1) February 2019,

https://pubsonline.informs.org/do/10.1287/orms.2019.01.14/full/ Elected to UCI Council on Academic Personnel, 3 year term beginning Sept. 2016.

Decision Analysis editorial board member, EURO Journal on Decision Processes editorial board member, Investigación Operacional (Cuban OR journal) editorial board member, 2017- .

Advances in Decision Analysis conference at Bocconi University, Milan, Italy, June 19-21, 2019,

sponsored by the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS, appointed Scientific Committee

member and Ramsey Medalist Panel Chair

Ramsey Medal Committee Member, 2017, 2018, 2019. Session chair: Healthcare Decision Analysis session co-chair, INFORMS Annual Meeting,

Seattle, Oct. 2019.

Igor Kopylov

Associate Editor: Theoretical Economics.

Lisa Pearl

Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching, UCI School of Social Sciences, Fall 2018.

Advised 10 undergraduate students (among whom 4 were women and 1 was an under-represented

minority student) on quantitative approaches to language science.

Member of UCI committee coordinating UCI branch of the NSF-funded North American

Computational Linguistics Olympiad. This program is aimed at introducing high school and

middle school students to language science, with a focus on computational approaches.

Zyg Pizlo

Article in the Nature Index about the University of California, Irvine (UCI) being North

America’s top rising star, mentioned my name as a high-profile hire:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06625-5?WT.feed_name=subjects_social-sciences

86

Don Saari

Induction ceremony: Foreign member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nov. 2018.

Ceremony for Honorary PhD: Russian Academy of Sciences, Nov. 2018.

Gregory Scontras

Mercator Fellowship, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation),

University of Tubingen (2018–2019).

Hal Stern

Statistical Partnerships Among Academe, Industry and Government (SPAIG) Award

(to the Center for Statistics and Applications in Forensic Evidence), American Statistical

Association, 2018.

Chair, Ad Hoc Advisory Committee on Forensic Statistics, American Statistical Assn. (Vice-

Chair 2012-2018).

Member, National Academy of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine Standing Committee

To Assist FMCSA in Developing New Motor Carrier Safety Measurement System, 2017 –

present.

Chair, Section U (Statistics) of the American Association for the Advancement of Science chair-

elect 2017; chair 2018; retiring chair 2019.

Member, Board of Directors, National Institute of Statistical Science (NISS), 2015 – present.

Member, Scientific Area Committee for Physics/Pattern Forensic Evidence, Organization of

Scientific Area Committees, National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), 2014 –

present.

87

H. FACULTY ADVISING

APPENDIX F GRADUATE STUDENTS AFFILIATED WITH IMBS

(i) Current Student Participants and their IMBS Advisors (* advanced to Ph.D. candidacy; ** received Ph.D. during year) Student Advisor Nikhil Addleman Carvalho Dhari Aljutaili Brownstone Maneesh Arora Grofman Lucila Arroya McBride/Narens Galia Bar-Sever Pearl/Scontras Alandi Bates Pearl/Scontras Dennis Blew Kaminski Jennifer Bryson Zhao Debapriya Chakraborty Brownstone ** Calvin Cochran Barrett/O’Connor John Cuffe Uhlaner Emma Cushman O’Connor * Maozhu Dai Stern Ali Esmaeeli Keller Ugurcan Evci Kaminski Daniel Frishberg Eppstein Rick Gardner Butts Marian Gilton Weatherall Maryam Gooyabadi Carvalho/Narens Kier Groulx Chubb Maime Guan Lee ** Santiago Guisasola Saari Elham Havvaei Epstein Daniel Herrmann Huttegger Christian Herrera Chubb Joselyn Ho Chubb Kurt Horner McBride Matt Inverso Chubb Kirbi Jo McBride/Narens Patrick Julius Carvalho/McBride Ali Kalshani Keller Brian Kaiser Kaminski Alysha Kassam O’Connor Saira Khan Huttegger Shantanu Khanna McBride Hadi Khodabande Eppstein Hannah Kim Grofman

88

Student Advisor Kyle Kole Keller Si-Yuan Kong McBride Travis LaCroix Barrett/O’Connor William Leibzon Narens Francis Lee Butts Gunnar Lund Scontras Alex Luttman Brueckner Amine Mahmassani McBride Tung Mai Vazirani Nil Mamano Eppstein Solena Mednikoff Chubb Chris Mitsch Weatherall Emma Nguyen Pearl Joseph Nunn Narens Fulya Ozcan Poirier

Nolan Phillips Butts Jason Ralston McBride Jordan Rashid Chubb Scott Renshaw Butts Alex Robinson Keller Gerard Roth Huttegger/Skyrms Sarita Rosenstock O’Connor/Weatherall

K.J. Savinelli Scontras/Pearl

Zachary Schaller Carvalho/Skaperdas

Mike Schneider O’Connor/Weatherall

Galia Bar Sever Scontras

Nishtha Sharma Skaperdas

Linley Slipetz O’Connor

Emma Smith Butts

Christian Stegemann Scontras

Pat Testa Skaperdas Loring Thomas Butts Sarah Thomaz Brueckner Holly Westfall Lee Nicole Winter Chubb Daniel Wolf Kaminski Karen Wood Komarova Eyra Yang McBride/Skaperdas Howard Yang Chubb Sadra Yazdanbod Vazirani Fan Yin Butts Tim Young McBride Yue Yu Butts Kai Yoshioka Brownstone Xuhong Zhang Butts Junying Zhao Saari/Skaperdas Yuting Zhao Huttegger