savannah · 2017-02-01 · 1 mariner grove existing brand properties 2010 e president st pine...

Accelerating success.

Research & Forecast Report

SAVANNAHQ4 2016 | Multifamily

Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar

RECENT SALES

Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 Dec-16 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Effective Rent Per Unit $961 $981 $984 $973 $975 $933 $960 $975 $990 $1,022 $1,061 $1,103

Per Sq. Ft $0.94 $0.96 $0.96 $0.95 $0.96 $0.91 $0.94 $0.95 $0.97 $1.00 $1.04 $1.08

Effective Rent Growth - Annually 2.3% 2.3% 0.1% 1.2% 2.2% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 1.6% 3.2% 3.8% 4.0%

Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 0.0% 2.1% 0.2% -1.1%

Occupancy Rate 93.5% 94.0% 94.6% 94.5% 94.8% 94.1% 93.8% 94.2% 94.0% 94.7% 95.0% 95.2%

Occupancy Change - Annually 0.9% 0.0% -0.2% 0.9% 1.8% 0.4% -0.3% 0.4% -0.2% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2%

Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.2% 0.6% 0.6% -0.1%

Economic Concessions Concession Value $-12.95 $-8.21 $-7.71 $-8.39 $-9.90 $-8.61 $-9.81

As a % of Asking Rent -1.3% -0.8% -0.8% -0.8% -1.0% -0.9% -1.0%

Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units

Dec-16 Moss Pointe 9400 Abercorn St Savannah 278 1971 21,000,000 75,540

Nov-16 Parkside at the Highlands 2170 Benton Blvd Pooler 317 2015 38,700,000 122,082

Oct-16 Links at Georgetown 450 Al Henderson Blvd Savannah 360 1998 122,000,000 108,348

Oct-16 Century Fenwick Village 101 Fenwick Village Dr Savannah 448 2007 55,500,000 123,884

Sep-16 Royal Oaks 301 Noble Oaks Dr Savannah 208 1979 23,098,345 111,050

Jun-16 The Terrace 4634 Abercorn St Savannah 188 1946 12,850,000 68,351

Apr-16 One West Victory 1 W Victory Dr Savannah 114 2014 20,200,000 177,193

Apr-16 Forest Hills 12012 Middleground Rd Savannah 90 1972 4,000,000 44,444

Apr-16 Courtney Station 285 Park Ave Pooler 300 2008 38,500,000 128,333

Mar-16 Cypress Landing 8000 Waters Ave Savannah 200 1983 24,000,000 120,000

Feb-16 Clover Village at White Bluff 10014 White Bluff Rd Savannah 120 1985 7,650,000 63,750

Feb-16 Clover Village at Vernon Marsh 11900 White Bluff Rd Savannah 178 1986 / 2003 10,100,000 56,742

Dec-15 Westlake 1900 Westlake Ave Savannah 100 1974 4,331,150 43,312

Dec-15 The Hue 646 W Bay St Savannah 149 2014 42,300,000 283,893

Dec-15 Viera At Whitemarsh 2 Johnny Mercer Blvd Savannah 208 1985 20,400,000 98,077

COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

Multifamily Absorption and Supply

Annual 4Q16 Annual Forecast

2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Total Units Absorbed 297 71 567 521 336,518 521 344 611 391 500

New Supply 177 167 775 343 365,032 343 467 441 333 419

Inventory Growth 1.4% 0.8% 2.9% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.6%

Market Employment and Permitting

Annual November-16 Annual Forecast

2013 2014 2015 Market National 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F

Employment (000s) 159.9 165.1 171.6 182.5 146,399.0 178.3 182.9 188.4 196.6 204.4

Job Gain (000s) 4.0 5.2 6.6 7.2 2,277.0 6.7 4.5 5.6 8.2 7.8

Job Growth (%) 2.6% 3.2% 4.0% 4.1% 1.6% 3.9% 2.5% 3.1% 4.3% 4.0%

Total Residential Permitting 1,463 1,900 2,078 1,856 1,087,532 2,014 2,575 2,953 2,352 2,107

Relative Change 16.8% 29.9% 9.4% -3.7% 1.9% -3.1% 27.9% 14.7% -20.4% -10.4%

Single Family Units Permitted 1,253 1,576 1,967 1,654 686,576

Relative Change 19.6% 25.8% 24.8% -9.7% 8.7%

Multifamily Units Permitted 188 318 109 194 371,009

Relative Change -5.5% 69.1% -65.7% 108.6% -8.6%

Multifamily as a % of Total 12.9% 16.7% 5.2% 10.5% 34.1%

Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 3.2 3.5 3.4 3.7 2.1 3.2 2.2 2.2 2.8 3.3

Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.8 4.1 4.2 3.9 3.6

Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 20.2 27.5 20.6 77.4 5.6

SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Savannah, GA Metro Area was 4.1% in November 2016, reflecting 7,200 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.6%.

Axiometrics forecasts Savannah, GA Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.5% in 2017, with 4,530 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 3.8% from 2018 to 2020, with an average of 7,189 jobs added each year.

On the supply side, permits for 199 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in November 2016, up 90 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 2,002 units were permitted in the 12 months ending November 2016, a decrease of -76 units from the prior year’s total.”


PIPELINE# Name Status Owner Address Market Units1 Mariner Grove Existing Brand Properties 2010 E President St Pine Gardens 3202 Capital Crest at Godley Station Under Construction TWO Capital Partners, LLC 1565 Benton Blvd Outer Westside/Port

Wentworth201

3 Buckeye Plantation - Phase II Proposed Homes of Integrity Construction, Inc. 1821 Buckeye Dr Bryan County 1324 The Village at Towne Park Proposed Anabee LLC 1012 Wadley Cir Bay Street Viaduct Area 82

Total Units 735

1

4

3

2

Source: CoStar

Key

Lease-Up

Under Construction

Proposed


With its pedestrian-friendly layout and innovative urban design, Savannah serves as a balm for the senses. The city of Savannah inspires visitors with its emerald tree canopy, quaint cobblestone streets and majestic architecture. Take the time to wander off the beaten path and experience the history, beauty and charm of this beloved coastal city. With blooming azaleas and a fun line-up of festivals, Savannah really comes to life in the spring and the city is vibrant with color.

Savannah is an abundant city to visit any time of year, with activities for everyone to indulge in. From architectural tours, music and food festivals, to art exhibits and Civil War re-enactments, Savannah brims with all kinds of events to excite and entertain.

*Source: http://www.savannah.com/

WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.

Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.

How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.


WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most

experienced teams of multifamily

specialists in the industry

Units sold since 2011

33,500MORE THAN

Group gross transaction value in since 2011

$2.3B

Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors

50MORE THAN

Expansive geographic footprint

20COVERING OVER

STATES


Palm ClubBrunswick, GAUnits: 132

Villas at Park AvenuePooler, GAUnits: 238

VILLAS AT KENNESAW, VILLAS AT NEWNAN, VILLAS AT SUGARLOAF & VILLAS AT WEST RIDGE | Georgia

CHALLENGE: The four property portfolio was encumbered by four separate agency loans, three of which were cross-collatoralized with other seller owned assets outside this group. The seller had to increase his guarantee on the remaining (non-selling) properties so the overall portfolio debt service coverage remained the same.

STRATEGY & RESULTS: The East Region team was the exclusive sales agent for Busbee Development, LLC. The assumption process occurred as a result of the increased guaranty and, in doing so, the sale successfully closed. The added delay in resolving this dilemma allowed the properties to take advantage of the positive trends in the submarkets, resulting in higher overall going in cap rates.

CLIENT: Busbee Development, LLC UNITS: 1,168

Portfolio Listing

OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORD

Forest HillsSavannah, GAUnits: 90

Terraces at Suwanee GatewaySuwanee, GAUnits: 335

Durham Park TownhomesPooler, GAUnits: 177

Recent Closings

Club HillColumbia, GAUnits: 232

“We were extremely pleased with the East Region team and its ability to attract an incredible amount of interest in our 3 assets. The number of offers received and the end results exceeded our expectations. They have a talented group who was a pleasure to work with. Their performance stands out against any of the groups we work with nationally.”

Nels Billsten, Vice President | CORE Realty Holding Management


Craig BrownASSOCIATE | EAST REGION

[email protected] +1 404 978 2336

Ashley SmithPRINCIPAL | SAVANNAH


Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION

INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP


www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com

To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:

ATLANTAPromenade, Suite 800 | 1230 Peachtree Street NE

Atlanta, GA 30309-3574 | United States

TEL +1 404 888 9000

SAVANNAH545 E York Street

Savannah, GA 31401 | United States

TEL +1 912 233 7111

AT YOUR SERVICE

savannah · 2017-02-01 · 1 mariner grove existing brand properties 2010 e president st pine...

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