2016 deutsche bank annual global industrials and basic...
TRANSCRIPT
2016 Deutsche Bank 7th Annual Global Industrials and Basic Materials Conference
Maracay Homes – Pardee Homes – Quadrant Homes – Trendmaker Homes – TRI Pointe Homes – Winchester Homes
Forward Looking Statement
Various statements contained in this presentation, including those that express a belief, expectation or intention, as well asthose that are not statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements may includeprojections and estimates concerning the timing and success of specific projects and our future production, land and lot sales, operational and financial results, financial condition, prospects, and capital spending. Our forward-looking statements are generally accompanied by words such as “estimate,” “project,” “predict,” “believe,” “expect,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “potential,” “plan,” “goal,” “will,” or other words that convey future events or outcomes. The forward-looking statements in this presentation speak only as of the date of this presentation, and we disclaim any obligation to update these statements unless required by law, and we caution you not to rely on them unduly. These forward-looking statements are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. The following factors, among others, may cause our actual results, performance or achievements to differmaterially from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements: theeffect of general economic conditions, including employment rates, housing starts, interest rate levels, availability of financingfor home mortgages and strength of the U.S. dollar; market demand for our products, which is related to the strength of thevarious U.S. business segments and U.S. and international economic conditions; levels of competition; the successfulexecution of our internal performance plans, including restructuring and cost reduction initiatives; global economic conditions;raw material prices; energy prices; the effect of weather; the risk of loss from earthquakes, volcanoes, fires, floods, droughts,windstorms, hurricanes, pest infestations and other natural disasters; transportation costs; federal and state tax policies; theeffect of land use, environment and other governmental regulations; legal proceedings; risks relating to any unforeseenchanges to or effects on liabilities, future capital expenditures, revenues, expenses, earnings, synergies, indebtedness,financial condition, losses and future prospects; changes in accounting principles; our relationship, and actual and potential conflicts of interest, with Starwood Capital Group or its affiliates; and additional factors discussed under the sections captioned “Risk Factors” included in our annual and quarterly reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The foregoing list is not exhaustive. New risk factors may emerge from time to time and it is not possible for management to predict all such risk factors or to assess the impact of such risk factors on our business.
Management Team
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Christopher MartinVP Finance & Investor Relations
• 25 years of real estate and development experience
• Former VP Finance and Treasurer at LNR Property LLC - Commercial Property Group
Michael GrubbsChief Financial Officer
• 28 years of real estate and homebuilding experience
• Former SVP / CFO of William Lyon Homes
Thomas Mitchell President & COO
• Over 25 years of real estate and homebuilding experience
• Former EVP and Southern California Regional President at William Lyon Homes
Working together for over 20 years, TRI Pointe senior management has significant experience running a large, geographically diverse, growth-oriented public homebuilder. Deep managerial talent at each operating division with key local relationships supports dynamic tailored growth strategies.
A Family of Regional Homebuilders
A Family of Regional Homebuilders
LTM Orders: 4,136 LTM Deliveries: 4,160
LTM Home Sales (“HS”) Revenue: $2,340,054 LTM Average Sales Price (“ASP”): $563
Lots Owned or Controlled: 27,929 2018 Goal: 5,100 – 5,400 Annual Deliveries
Market: Greater Puget Sound AreaLTM Orders: 424 LTM Deliveries: 410LTM HS Revenue: $182,914 LTM ASP: $446Lots Owned or Controlled: 1,5102018 Goal: 400 Annual Deliveries
Markets: Los Angeles/Ventura, Inland Empire, San Diego, Las VegasLTM Orders: 1,191 LTM Deliveries: 1,170LTM HS Revenue: $639,435 LTM ASP: $547Lots Owned or Controlled: 16,4572018 Goal: 1,400 – 1,500 Annual Deliveries
Markets: Orange County, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco Bay Area, DenverLTM Orders: 1,036 LTM Deliveries: 1,122LTM HS Revenue: $799,104 LTM ASP:$712Lots Owned or Controlled: 3,6252018 Goal: 1,400 – 1,550 Annual Deliveries
Markets: Phoenix, TucsonLTM Orders: 618 LTM Deliveries: 510LTM HS Revenue: $198,605 LTM ASP: $389Lots Owned or Controlled: 2,2802018 Goal: 700 Annual Deliveries
Markets: Houston, AustinLTM Orders: 447 LTM Deliveries: 519LTM HS Revenue: $263,235LTM ASP: $507Lots Owned or Controlled: 1,7772018 Goal: 700 – 750 Annual Deliveries
Markets: Washington DC, RichmondLTM Orders: 420LTM Deliveries: 429LTM HS Revenue: $256,761 LTM ASP: $599Lots Owned or Controlled: 2,2802018 Goal: 500 Annual Deliveries
Data as of March 31, 2016
Note: Dollars in thousands
Significant Land Supply to Fuel Growth
Combined Lot Position
Market Owned Controlled Total Lots % Owned Inventory Dollars LTM Deliveries Years of Supply
California 17,055 568 17,623 97% $1,531,917 1,717 10.3
Colorado 434 192 626 69% $71,813 198 3.2
Washington, D.C. (1) 1,920 360 2,280 84% $261,053 429 5.3
Arizona 1,476 804 2,280 65% $211,362 510 4.5
Nevada 1,672 161 1,833 91% $205,109 377 4.9
Texas 1,388 389 1,777 78% $214,290 519 3.4
Washington 1,082 428 1,510 72% $209,707 410 3.7
Total 25,027 2,902 27,929 90% $2,705,251 4,160 6.7
As of March 31, 2016
63%
2%
8%
8%
7%
6%6%
California
Colorado
Washington, D.C. (1)
Arizona
Nevada
Texas
Washington
Total Lots
(1) Includes lots in the greater Washington D.C. area. Note: Dollars in thousands
57%
3%
10%
8%
8%
8%
8%
Inventory Dollars
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Project Name Location
Total
Lots
Target
Activation
1 Skyline Ranch Santa Clarita 1,205 2017
2 Banning Inland Empire 4,318 2018
3 Natomas Sacramento ~120 2017
4 Meadowood San Diego 844 2019
5 Bear Creek Stockton ~950 5+ Years
6South Otay
MesaSan Diego 893 5+ Years
~8,330
ASS
ET L
OC
ATIO
NS
San Francisco
2
3
5
6
4
San Diego
Los Angeles
1
6
2016 First Quarter Highlights
• Strong absorption rate of over 3.3 new home orders per community per month
• New home deliveries up 15% to 771 with an average sales price of $549K
• Home sales revenue up 13% to $423MM
• Homebuilding gross margin of 23.3%
• Adj. homebuilding gross margin of 25.4% (1)
• SG&A expense improved to 12.9% of home sales revenue compared to 13.7% last year
• Net income available to stockholders of $28.6M, or $0.18 per diluted share vs. $15.3M or $0.09 per diluted share Q1 2015
7(1) See “Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures” in the appendix of this presentaion
Metric 1Q 2016 1Q 2015 % Change
Orders 1,149 1,194 -4%
Deliveries 771 668 15%
ASP ($000s) $549K $560K -2%
Backlog (units) 1,534 1,558 -2%
Home Sales
Revenue ($mm)$423 $374 13%
HB Gross Margin 23.3% 19.9% +340 bps
SG&A Expense
(% of sales)12.9% 13.7% -80 bps
EPS (Diluted) $0.18 $0.09 100.0%
Second Quarter 2016 Update and Outlook
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• New home orders through April 24, 2016 are up 3% as compared to the Company results for the comparable month a year ago; absorption per month per average community increased to 3.9 sequentially from 3.5 in March and 3.5 for the comparable period a year ago
• Anticipate opening 10 new communities and closing out of 15, resulting in 120 active selling communities as of June 30, 2016
• Anticipate delivering approximately 60% of the 1,534 homes in backlog as of March 31, 2016
• Anticipate homebuilding gross margins on deliveries in 2Q16 in a range of 21.0% to 22.0%
See Forward Looking Statement disclosure on page 2 of the presentation
Full Year 2016 Update and Outlook
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• Expect to grow active selling communities by 20% for the full year
• Anticipate delivering between 4,200 and 4,400 homes at an average sales price of $550,000
• Anticipate generating between $45 and $50 million of gross profit from land and lot sales, most of which are expected to close in the second and third quarter of 2016
• Increasing anticipated homebuilding gross margins for the full year to a range of 20.5% to 21.5%, from previously guided 20.0% to 21.0%
• Anticipate SG&A expenses as a percentage of home sales revenue to a range of 10.3% to 10.5%
See Forward Looking Statement disclosure on page 2 of the presentation
Questions?Maracay Homes – Pardee Homes – Quadrant Homes – Trendmaker Homes – TRI Pointe Homes – Winchester Homes
Supplemental Data and Reconciliation
Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures(unaudited)
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In this presentation, we utilize certain financial measures that are non-GAAP financial measures as defined by the Securities and Exchange Commission. We present these measures because we believe they and similar measures are useful to management and investors in evaluating the Company’s operating performance and financing structure. We also believe these measures facilitate the comparison of our operating performance and financing structure with other companies in our industry. Because these measures are not calculated inaccordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (“GAAP”), they may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for, or superior to, financial measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.
The following table reconciles homebuilding gross margin percentage, as reported and prepared in accordance with GAAP, to the non-GAAP measure adjusted homebuilding gross margin percentage. We believe this information is meaningful as it isolates the impact that leverage has on homebuilding gross margin and permits investors to make better comparisons with our competitors, who adjust gross margins in a similar fashion.
Three Months Ended March 31,
2016 % 2015 %
(dollars in thousands)
Home sales revenue $ 423,055 100.0 % $ 374,265 100.0 %
Cost of home sales 324,499 76.7 % 299,907 80.1 %
Homebuilding gross margin 98,556 23.3 % 74,358 19.9 %
Add: interest in cost of home sales 8,830 2.1 % 6,711 1.8 %
Add: impairments and lot option abandonments 182 0.0 % 345 0.1 %
Adjusted homebuilding gross margin $ 107,568 25.4 % $ 81,414 21.8 %
Homebuilding gross margin percentage 23.3 % 19.9 %
Adjusted homebuilding gross margin percentage 25.4 % 21.8 %