2016 annual shareholder meeting presentation

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Shareholder Meeting May 2016

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Page 1: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Shareholder Meeting

May 2016

Page 2: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Disclaimer

Matters discussed in this presentation and during our 2016 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, whether written or oral, relating to future events or our future performance, including any discussion, expressed or implied, regarding our anticipated growth, operating results, plans, objectives, future earnings per share, and the impact of our investments in sales-building initiatives and operational capabilities on future sales and earnings, contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. These statements are often identified by the words “believe,” “positioned,” "estimate,” “project,” “target,” “plan,” “goal,” “assumption,” “continue,” “intend,” “expect,” “future,” “anticipate,” and other similar expressions, whether in the negative or the affirmative, that are not statements of historical fact. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that are difficult to predict, and you should not place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements. Our actual results and timing of certain events could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements as a result of certain factors, including, but not limited to, those discussed from time to time in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 29, 2015 and our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. All forward-looking statements and the internal projections and beliefs upon which we base our expectations included in this presentation or during our 2016 Annual Meeting of Shareholders are made only as of the date of this presentation and may change. While we may elect to update forward-looking statements at some point in the future, we expressly disclaim any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise.

2

Page 3: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Panera Today

Page 4: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Panera Today

• 1,972 Bakery-cafes

• ~97,000 Employees

• 46 States, D.C., & Canada

• 8.3M customers/week

• $2.5 million AUVs

• $4.8B System Sales

• Multiple Consumer Channels

As of FY2015 end

Page 5: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

How We Compete

Craveable Wellness – Elevated Experience

• We own the “better” soup, salad and sandwich category, serving food that

is good and good for you that people trust and crave.

• We are an authority in fresh-baked bread, which drives differentiation in

our food.

• Our bakery-cafes provide an everyday oasis, where guests feel welcome

to eat, talk, study or relax.

• We offer multiple consumer solutions for diverse needs, spanning

dayparts and available through different points of access.

Page 6: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Panera…A Track Record of Success

Page 7: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Historically High Average Weekly Sales

38,318 39,150 38,668 39,239 39,926 42,852 44,313

46,676 47,403 47,655 48,357

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

System-Wide Average Weekly Sales

Page 8: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Along with Strong Same-Store Sales Growth

Note: 2000 – 2007 system-wide comps based on sales from bakery-cafes that had been in operation or owned for 18 months, 2008 – Present system-wide comps based on sales from bakery-cafes that had an open date or had been owned 12 months prior to the start of the fiscal year

9.1%

5.8% 5.5%

0.2%

2.7%

7.8%

4.1%

1.6%

3.6%

2.2%

7.9%

4.0%

5.7%

2.3%

1.1% 1.9%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

System-Wide Comps (1 year)

Page 9: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

High sales drive significant unit-level returns

(In Millions)

Mature Store Base

Average Returns (a) (b)

New Store Approval

Framework - 2nd Year

Return

Avg Net Sales/Unit $2.6 $2.5

Unit EBITDA $0.4 $0.4

Unit Margin 16.7% 15.4%

Invested Capital

Investment before OH $0.9 $1.4

Capitalized OH $0.1 $0.1

Investment including OH $1.0 $1.5

Cash-on-cash ROI (c)

Mid-point Corporate ROI (before OH) 49.1% 19.5%

Mid-point IRR 23.0%(a) FY15 results based off 743 company-owned Panera cafes opened before fiscal year end 2013 (excluding closed cafes)

(b) Avg investment cost for 595 company-owned Panera cafes opened prior to fiscal year end 2015 (excluding closed cafes and acquisitions)

(c) Cash-on-cash ROI for New Store Approval Framework is net of any cannibalization impact

Page 10: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

566 636 698 763 795 791 801 843 910 955 1071

311 391

532 562 585 662 740

809 867

925 901

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Franchise Company

Total Number of Bakery Cafes 2015 AUV of $2.5M

1,972

As a result, we have steadily grown new cafes

1,325 1,380 1,453 1,541

1,652

1,880

Note: System % unit growth is net of café closings and franchise

acquisitions.

1,777 2005 AUV of $1.9M

1,230

1,027 877

Page 11: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Panera cafes can

be found

throughout the

United States

and in select

markets in

Canada.

Page 12: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Panera…A Track Record of Creating Value for

Shareholders

Page 13: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Over the last 20 years, our stock performance has led the

industry.

PNRA

BWLD

CMG

SBUX

DRI

EAT

S&P 500

Source: FactSet. Relative stock price performance indexed from 5/16/96 to 5/16/16

Page 14: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Over the last 20 years, Panera shares delivered a total return of more

than 4,700% to shareholders, compared to about 200% for the S&P 500.

During the five-year period ending 2015, Panera delivered a total return

to shareholders of more than 90%, compared to about 60% for the S&P

500

Because of the perceived power of our strategic vision and the strength

of our leading indicators, Panera’s stock was up 12% in 2015 – ahead of

almost all peers.

Thus far in 2016, shares of Panera are pushing all-time highs and

significantly outperforming our high-growth peers.

Page 15: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

We also have a strong balance sheet and a track record of

returning cash to shareholders

• Positive cash balances

– $94 million of Free Cash Flow in 2015

• Very little leverage

– $300 million term loan, essentially one turn of debt

• Since 2009, we’ve returned $1.3B to shareholders via share repurchases

– Nearly 30% of shares outstanding retired

• 30 franchisees (average of 36 units each) partner in our growth

– Over the past decade, they have constructed or acquired over 500 cafes with their

capital

Page 16: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Setting Panera Up for an Even Stronger Future

Page 17: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

We’ve been working to transform Panera so we

can once again set ourselves on a path of

industry-leading performance…

Page 18: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

…while providing opportunities for expanded

high-ROI growth in several adjacent

$1B+ channels.

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Page 19: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

HOW OUR PLAN HAS EVOLVED….

• Panera 2.0 prototyped

(Operational Integrity and

digital access)

DEFINED AN IMPROVED

GUEST EXPERIENCE THAT

REDUCES FRICTION

2012

19

Page 20: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

HOW OUR PLAN HAS EVOLVED….

• Delivery, catering hubs,

Panera at Home prototyped

• eCommerce and technology

capabilities built

IMAGINED RUNWAYS FOR

EXPANDED GROWTH

2013

20

Page 21: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

HOW OUR PLAN HAS EVOLVED….

• Concept Essence redefined,

giving us a powerful North

Star to guide all of our

innovations

• Craveable wellness and an

elevated experience

REFINED VISION FOR HOW

THE PANERA CAFÉ DRIVES

DESIRE

2014

21

Page 22: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

HOW OUR PLAN HAS EVOLVED….

• Panera 2.0 scaled

• Innovation in Ops, Food and

Marketing

• Clean food initiative

announced with “No No List”

• “Food as it should be”

campaign launched

BASED ON CONCEPT

ESSENCE, WE ACTIVATED

INNOVATION IN

OPERATIONS, FOOD &

BAKERY, MARKETING &

STORE DESIGN

2015

22

Page 23: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Today, our 5-year vision has taken form and

we can more clearly see our future.

Page 24: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

OUR 5-YEAR VISION

Café that is a Better Competitive Alternative

(Less Friction / Greater Desire)

ENDS

2.0 (Operational Integrity + Digital Access) Concept Essence activating Innovation in: Food/bakery, Marketing, Operations, Design, Sourcing

Runways for expanded growth: “Hoovering”

(Take Share in Adjacent $1B+ Markets)

MEANS (INITIATIVES)

Delivery

High-ROI Unit Growth (traditional, new formats)

Panera at Home

Catering

BYPRODUCT: SUSTAINED DOUBLE-DIGIT EARNINGS GROWTH

Strengthen Capabilities to Execute KIs

(“Get the Job Done”)

Resources to Invest

(Deliver Profit For Shareholders)

Human Capabilities in Place

Ecommerce Strategy/IT Execution

Comp growth ahead of industry

Intensive margin improvement effort

Return cash to shareholders

B-2-25-16 24

Page 25: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

What’s more, the themes that are central to our

5-year vision are now being validated by others

as themes for success in the restaurant industry

going forward.

25

Page 26: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

“We continue to view Panera as the only stock under our

coverage to fit both of our investment themes of using

guest-facing technology as a competitive advantage as well

as transparent food sourcing that we believe will be sales

drivers for years to come.”

- Andrew M. Charles, Cowen and Company

Page 27: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Our results indicate that our strategy to be a

better competitive alternative with runways for

expanded growth is working.

Page 28: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Q1 Comps Strongest in Over Three Years

3.3%

4.1%

1.7% 1.7%

-0.4%

1.0%

1.8%

3.5%

1.9%

2.6%

3.8% 3.4%

6.2%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

*

Q2

20

14

*

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

^

Comps % Change vs Prior Year

*Adjusted for Easter timing ^Reported

Page 29: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Q1 Comps outperformed the Black Box all-industry composite

by 650 bps, the biggest gap we have ever seen

-2.00%

-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

Q1

20

13

Q2

20

13

Q3

20

13

Q4

20

13

Q1

20

14

*

Q2

20

14

*

Q3

20

14

Q4

20

14

Q1

20

15

Q2

20

15

Q3

20

15

Q4

20

15

Q1

20

16

^

Comp Gap vs. Black Box

*Adjusted for Easter timing ^Reported

Page 30: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Eight consecutive quarters of transaction growth

-2.4%

-0.5%

-1.0% -0.8%

-3.3%

0.8%

1.4% 1.3%

0.3%

1.0% 0.9% 1.1%

2.9%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Transactions % Chg vs Prior Year & Gap vs Black Box

Transactions*Adjusted for Easter timing ^Post-refranchising net internal comps

Page 31: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Transaction performance versus the Black Box all-industry composite

shows we are stealing share

5.3%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Gap vs Black Box

*Adjusted for Easter timing ^Post-refranchising net internal comps

Page 32: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

And we are building on our momentum.

Page 33: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• Comps growing faster in

Panera 2.0 cafes

• 452 company Panera 2.0 cafes

operating at the end of Q1

• Approximately 200 company

cafes will be converted to

Panera 2.0 in 2016

• 75% of franchise groups are

expected to begin 2.0

conversions in 2016, for a

total of 100 franchised 2.0

cafes by year-end

PANERA 2.0

33

WE ARE REDUCING FRICTION

Page 34: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• Operational Integrity, our end-

to-end approach to improving

production and accuracy

• Fully staffed with great team

members

• Café Health scores increased

1.6% year-over-year in Q1

• Direct correlation between

Café Health and comps

• Building the capabilities to

manage the increasing café

volumes and complexity

OPERATIONS

34 DM

WE ARE INNOVATING

Page 35: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• Craveable wellness - Imaginative

food that’s good for you and

worth going out of your way for

• Removed artificial colors, flavors,

sweeteners and preservatives

from more than 400 ingredients,

covering more than 90% of our

menu

• All soups clean in January

• All salads clean in May and three

new salads: Green Goddess Cobb

Salad, Chinese Citrus Cashew

Salad and Watermelon Feta Salad

• All sandwiches clean this fall and

new sandwiches unveiled

FOOD

35 DM

WE ARE INNOVATING

Page 36: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• “Food As It Should Be” continues

to be a powerful communications

platform that is helping to further

strengthen our brand reputation

and build relevance with our

target customers.

• We continue to build our

reputation with influencers

through earned media.

• MyPanera, with more than 22

million members and representing

about 50% of company

transactions, is a powerful way to

grow specific dayparts, products

and channels

MARKETING

36 DM

WE ARE INNOVATING

Page 37: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• Test cafes saw strong sales

• 70 bakery cafes offering

delivery in 6 markets at end of

Q1

• We plan to roll out delivery to

more than 10% of our system

in 2016, including both

company and franchise cafes

DELIVERY

37

WE ARE EXPANDING RUNWAYS FOR GROWTH

Page 38: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• Year-over-year catering sales

grew 11% in Q1

• Catering sales in hubs

outperforming café-based

catering

• Professional sales teams

bringing new focus to

acquiring and retaining

business

• Centralized customer

management is engaging new

and lapsed customers

• We will continue to execute

our catering strategic plan this

year

CATERING

38

WE ARE EXPANDING RUNWAYS FOR GROWTH

Page 39: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• A $150M business at retail in 2015,

with sales growth of more than 15%

in the past year

• We are currently in 6 categories:

soup, mac n cheese, salad

dressing, coffee, frozen bread and

sliced bread

• We are beginning to transition

categories within our Panera at

Home portfolio from a licensed

model to a co-pack model in which

we manage the customer

PANERA AT HOME

39 DM

WE ARE EXPANDING RUNWAYS FOR GROWTH

Page 40: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• 90-100 new units targeted in

2016

• Evolving traditional model to

expand reach through new

formats, including in-fill,

institutional, urban residential

• Creating remodel with lower

investment cost

• Excited by results at

universities and hospitals

HIGH-ROI UNIT

GROWTH

40 DM

WE ARE EXPANDING RUNWAYS FOR GROWTH

Page 41: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

• Digital utilization 17% of sales at

the end of Q1 2016 and 23% at

Panera 2.0 cafes

• We are filling 125,000 to 130,000 e-

commerce orders daily

• Our app is one of the two highest-

rated restaurant apps, rating

higher than Starbucks, Chipotle,

Papa John’s, Taco Bell, Pizza Hut,

Five Guys, Zoёs and Dunkin’

Donuts (Source: AppAnnie)

• System-wide digital sales

represent a $600 million-plus e-

commerce business and could

approach $1 billion in annual

sales by 2017

E-COMMERCE

41

DM

WE ARE BUILDING OUR CAPABILITIES

Page 42: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Imagine our sales and profit potential as we

strengthen our competitive position and access

the additional channels for growth we have

available to us.

Page 43: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

We can now see the mountaintop,

although we still have work to do.

Page 44: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation
Page 45: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

Closing Thoughts

45

We are committed to winning this race and

delivering the long-term shareholder value

that has been Panera’s hallmark for more

than 20 years.

Page 46: 2016 Annual Shareholder Meeting Presentation

THANK YOU

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