2016 2020 preliminary financial forecast
TRANSCRIPT
2016 – 2020 Preliminary Financial ForecastCity of Port Angeles July 28, 2015
Bottom Line Up Front –30,000’ View of the General Fund
▪ Revenue:
▪ Loss of NPIUSA electric utility tax represents estimated $350,000 - $450,000 yearly loss
▪ Growth is a significant challenge
▪ No readily apparent business or industry moving in to town to replace lost revenue
▪ Ability to sustain General Fund support for Street Fund ($846,000) & Medic 1 ($448,000) is becoming more difficult & problematic
▪ Expenditures:
▪ Priority Setting & prior reductions have put the City in a much better position to address current & future problems
▪ Base expenditure projection does not include COLA for years 2016 – 2020
▪ Police & Fire have access to binding interest arbitration to settle contracts
▪ Internal equity challenges
2
Fiscal Sustainability Didn’t Happen by Accident
▪ Diligent & hard work in prior years:
▪ 2012: 8.5 FTE Reductions
▪ 2013 & 2014: Long-Range Financial Planning
▪ 2015: Priority Setting Process Conducted
3
2016 – 2020 Financial Forecast - Preliminary
▪ Forecasts are for the following funds:
▪ General Fund #001
▪ Forecasts are not included for the following funds –will be in Round #2--2016 – 2020 Financial Forecast:
▪ Lodging Tax Fund #101
▪ Street Fund #102
▪ Real Estate Excise Tax 1 (REET-1) Fund #105
▪ PenCom Fund #107
▪ Port Angeles Fine Arts Center Fund #156
▪ Real Estate Excise Tax 2 (REET-2) Fund #160
▪ Medic 1 Fund #409
▪ Equipment Services Fund #501
▪ Information Technology Fund #502
▪ Self-Insurance Fund #503
▪ Forecasts for utilities were included as part of utility
review & rate setting process
▪ Electric Utility Fund #401
▪ Water Utility Fund #402
▪ Wastewater Utility Fund #403
▪ Solid Waste Fund #404
▪ Stormwater Fund #406
▪ Electric Capital Fund #451
▪ Water Capital Fund #452
▪ Wastewater Capital Fund #453
▪ Solid Waste Capital Fund #454
▪ Stormwater Capital Fund #456
▪ Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Fund #463
4
General Fund Forecast Includes
▪ Revenues:
▪ 310 Taxes
▪ 320 Licenses & Permits
▪ 330 Intergovernmental Revenue
▪ 340 Charges for Goods & Services
▪ 350 Fines & Penalties
▪ 360 Miscellaneous Revenue
▪ 370 Proprietary/Trust Revenue
▪ 380 Non-Revenues
▪ 390 Other Financing Sources
▪ Expenditures:
▪ 10 Salaries
▪ 20 Personnel Benefits
▪ 30 Supplies
▪ 40 Services
▪ 50 Intergovernmental Services & Pmts.
▪ 60 Capital Outlay
▪ 70 Debt Service – Principal Pmts.
▪ 80 Debt Service – Interest/Other Pmts.
▪ 90 Interfund Payments for Services
5
General Fund Revenue ForecastSelected Inflation Factors
6
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
REVENUE
Overall, Combined 0.66% 1.98% 1.96% 2.45% 2.54%
Property Tax 1.50% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02% 1.02%
Sales Tax - CoPA
CoPA Direct 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.50% 1.50%
EUGA Shared 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50% 4.50%
Utility Tax Combined
Electric Utility Tax 2.52% 2.17% 0.27% 5.05% 6.36%
Water Utility Tax 5.33% 4.23% 4.23% 4.23% 4.25%
Wastewater Utility Tax 5.35% 5.35% 5.35% 5.35% 5.35%
Solid Waste-Collections Utility Tax 11.25% 5.09% 5.24% 3.32% -0.07%
Solid Waste-Transfer Station Utility Tax 4.22% 4.21% 4.20% 4.21% 4.20%
Stormwater Utility Tax 25.00% 20.00% 2.98% 3.00% 3.02%
Telephone Tax 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
Sales Tax-Criminal Justice 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
Telecable Franchise Fee 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
Building Permits -27.93% 1.50% 1.48% 1.50% 1.52%
Liquor Excise / Liquor Profit 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Municipal Court Fines 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Investment Interest 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
General Fund Expenditure ForecastSelected Inflation Factors
7
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EXPENDITURES
Overall, Combined
Salaries & Wages 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33% 0.33%
Personnel Benefits
FICA 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Medicare 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
PERS / LEOFF 0.00% 0.00% 2.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Health Insurance 5.00% 5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Supplies
Office Supplies 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Services
Travel & Training 2.00% 2.00% 3.50% 4.00% 4.00%
Utilities 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00% 5.00%
Intergovernmental Services & Payments
Transfers 1.00% 2.00% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50%
Capital Outlay 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Interfund Payments for Services 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
General Fund Revenue vs. ExpendituresHistory & Preliminary Forecast
8
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
$18,000,000
$20,000,000
$22,000,000
$24,000,000
$26,000,000
G.F. Expend. With 2.0% COLA G.F. Exp. Forecast w/o COLA
G.F. Expend. Without COLA General Fund Revenue
General Fund Preliminary Forecast + Net Surplus / Shortfall
9
Revenue Forecast
Beginning
Expenditure
Forecast --
NO COLA
Net Surplus /
<Shortfall>
2.0% COLA Costs +
Benefit Roll-Up
Costs
Adjusted
Expenditure
Forecast
Adjusted Net
Surplus /
<Shortfall>
2016 est.$19,807,400 $19,877,100 ($69,700) $210,600 $20,087,700 ($280,300)
2017 est.$20,198,900 $20,062,200 $136,700 $610,700 $20,672,900 ($474,000)
2018 est.$20,594,300 $20,283,500 $310,800 $1,204,000 $21,487,500 ($893,200)
2019 est.$21,099,100 $20,621,500 $477,600 $1,994,600 $22,616,100 ($1,517,000)
2020 est.$21,635,700 $21,067,800 $567,900 $2,986,300 $24,054,100 ($2,418,400)
General Fund Revenue History
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-A2
Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 A-2 @ 2.40%
10
General Fund Revenue History & Preliminary Forecast
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
11
Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 @ 2.40%
• 2005 – 2020 est. @ 2.06%
General Fund Revenue History & Preliminary Forecast
12
YearGen. Fund
Revenue
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
Compound
Growth Rate
2005 $15,518,236 n/a n/a $15,518,000
2006 $15,765,530 $247,294 1.59% $15,866,000
2007 $17,127,922 $1,362,392 8.64% $16,221,000
2008 $17,607,552 $479,630 2.80% $16,584,000
2009 $17,114,570 ($492,982) -2.80% $16,955,000
2010 $18,307,727 $1,193,157 6.97% $17,335,000
2011 $18,489,828 $182,101 0.99% $17,723,000
2012 $17,750,665 ($739,163) -4.00% $18,120,000
2013 $19,256,908 $1,506,243 8.49% $18,526,000
2014 $20,208,458 $951,550 4.94% $18,941,000
2015-A2 $19,678,500 ($529,958) -2.62% $19,365,000
2016 est. $19,807,400 $128,900 0.66% $19,799,000
2017 est. $20,198,900 $391,500 1.98% $20,242,000
2018 est. $20,594,300 $395,400 1.96% $20,695,000
2019 est. $21,099,100 $504,800 2.45% $21,159,000
2020 est. $21,635,700 $536,600 2.54% $21,633,000
General Fund Expenditure History
13
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015-A2
Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 A2 @ 2.61%
General Fund ExpendituresHistory & Preliminary Forecast
14
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
Compound Growth Rate:• 2005 – 2015 A2 @ 2.61%
• 2005 – 2020 without COLA @ 2.06%
• 2005 – 2020 with 2.0% COLA @ 3.01%
Forecast with
2.0% COLA
Tax Revenue History & Preliminary Forecast
15
Year Property Tax
"Street Fund
#102" Property
Tax 2005 - 2012
Sales Tax Utility Tax Telephone TaxOther Tax-
Based Revenue
Total Tax
Revenue + (Street Property
Tax 2005 - 2012)
Variance from
Prior year -- $
Variance from
Prior year -- %
2005 $2,968,648 $463,480 $2,822,760 $2,655,291 $556,244 $424,479 $9,890,902 n/a n/a
2006 $2,958,258 $468,115 $3,254,674 $2,884,605 $538,041 $282,544 $10,386,237 $495,335 5.01%
2007 $3,317,498 $472,796 $3,357,780 $3,257,780 $505,043 $291,281 $11,202,178 $815,941 7.86%
2008 $3,397,812 $477,524 $3,209,825 $3,353,324 $639,727 $320,967 $11,399,179 $197,001 1.76%
2009 $3,477,575 $482,299 $2,763,427 $3,506,125 $636,501 $71,343 $10,937,269 ($461,910) -4.05%
2010 $3,553,949 $482,299 $2,877,100 $3,743,658 $547,323 $254,458 $11,458,787 $521,518 4.77%
2011 $3,585,314 $482,299 $2,876,603 $3,801,137 $698,748 $438,676 $11,882,778 $423,991 3.70%
2012 $3,630,678 $482,299 $2,783,743 $3,810,091 $481,088 $422,861 $11,610,761 ($272,017) -2.29%
2013 $4,193,648 $0 $2,872,277 $4,280,783 $562,449 $469,477 $12,378,633 $767,872 6.61%
2014 $4,267,485 $0 $2,887,072 $4,370,413 $617,965 $524,120 $12,667,054 $288,421 2.33%
2015-A2 $4,345,000 $0 $2,890,000 $3,923,200 $570,000 $488,100 $12,216,300 ($450,754) -3.56%
2016 est. $4,410,200 $0 $2,923,100 $4,114,600 $609,000 $465,100 $12,522,000 $305,700 2.50%
2017 est. $4,498,400 $0 $2,956,700 $4,285,500 $618,100 $473,400 $12,832,100 $310,100 2.48%
2018 est. $4,588,400 $0 $2,990,900 $4,403,800 $627,400 $483,100 $13,093,600 $261,500 2.04%
2019 est. $4,680,200 $0 $3,039,900 $4,609,800 $636,800 $494,300 $13,461,000 $367,400 2.81%
2020 est. $4,773,800 $0 $3,089,800 $4,840,800 $646,400 $507,300 $13,858,100 $397,100 2.95%
2015 General Fund RevenuesBudget Amendment #2
310 Taxes, $12,216,300 , 62%
320 Licenses & Permits, $616,200 , 3%
330 Intergovernmental Revenues, $584,800 , 3%
340 Charges for Goods & Services, $5,797,500 , 29%
350 Fines & Penalties, $185,000 , 1%
360 Miscellaneous Revenue, $156,700 , 1%
390 Other Financing Sources, $122,000 , 1%
16
Property Tax Assessed ValueHistory & Preliminary Forecast
17
$0
$500,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,500,000,000
$2,000,000,000
$2,500,000,000
Assessed Value Compound Growth Rate Forecast Growth Rate
Assessed Value & Property Tax Levy RatesHistory & Preliminary Forecast
18
Year Assessed ValueVariance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
Regular Levy
Rate
2005 $1,148,440,522 $83,950,020 7.89% $3.0552
2006 $1,281,703,518 $133,262,996 11.60% $2.8051
2007 $1,595,493,428 $313,789,910 24.48% $2.3875
2008 $1,952,176,500 $356,683,072 22.36% $1.9985
2009 $1,994,259,574 $42,083,074 2.16% $2.0129
2010 $1,757,276,293 ($236,983,281) -11.88% $2.2918
2011 $1,735,945,788 ($21,330,505) -1.21% $2.3561
2012 $1,595,868,974 ($140,076,814) -8.07% $2.5752
2013 $1,519,228,137 ($76,640,837) -4.80% $2.7825
2014 $1,451,933,471 ($67,294,666) -4.43% $2.9537
2015-A2 $1,438,413,451 ($13,520,020) -0.93% $3.0292
2016 est. $1,445,606,000 $7,192,549 0.50% $3.0508
2017 est. $1,463,676,000 $18,070,000 1.25% $3.0734
2018 est. $1,496,609,000 $32,933,000 2.25% $3.0659
2019 est. $1,545,249,000 $48,640,000 3.25% $3.0288
2020 est. $1,599,333,000 $54,084,000 3.50% $2.9849
Property Tax (Includes Property Tax Collected by the Street Fund #102 thru 2012)History &
History & Preliminary Forecast
19
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
-A2
20
16
est
.
201
7 es
t.
201
8 es
t.
20
19
est
.
20
20
est
.
Year
Regular
Property Tax
Collection (Includes "Street
Fund #102"
Property Tax
2005 - 2012)
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $3,432,128 $148,000 0.0452
2006 $3,426,373 ($5,755) -0.17%
2007 $3,790,294 $363,921 10.62%
2008 $3,875,336 $85,042 2.24%
2009 $3,959,874 $84,538 2.18%
2010 $4,036,248 $76,374 1.93%
2011 $4,067,613 $31,365 0.78%
2012 $4,112,977 $45,364 1.12%
2013 $4,193,648 $80,671 1.96%
2014 $4,267,485 $73,837 1.76%
2015-A2 $4,345,000 $77,515 1.82%
2016 est. $4,410,200 $65,200 1.50%
2017 est. $4,498,400 $88,200 2.00%
2018 est. $4,588,400 $90,000 2.00%
2019 est. $4,680,200 $91,800 2.00%
2020 est. $4,773,800 $93,600 2.00%
Sales Tax – CoPA Regular + EUGA SharedHistory & Preliminary Forecast
20
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
-A2
20
16
est
.
20
17
est
.
20
18
est
.
20
19
est
.
20
20
est
.
CoPA Sales Tax EUGA Share Sales Tax
YearCoPA Regular
Sales Tax
EUGA Shared
Sales TaxTotal Sales Tax
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $2,822,760 $0 $2,822,760 $189,430 0.0719
2006 $3,254,674 $0 $3,254,674 $431,914 15.30%
2007 $3,336,476 $21,304 $3,357,780 $103,106 3.17%
2008 $3,181,450 $28,375 $3,209,825 ($147,955) -4.41%
2009 $2,736,367 $27,059 $2,763,427 ($446,398) -13.91%
2010 $2,779,435 $97,665 $2,877,100 $113,673 4.11%
2011 $2,832,116 $44,487 $2,876,603 ($497) -0.02%
2012 $2,708,666 $75,077 $2,783,743 ($92,860) -3.23%
2013 $2,763,573 $108,704 $2,872,277 $88,533 3.18%
2014 $2,769,404 $117,668 $2,887,072 $14,795 0.52%
2015-A2 $2,770,000 $120,000 $2,890,000 $2,928 0.10%
2016 est. $2,797,700 $125,400 $2,923,100 $33,100 1.15%
2017 est. $2,825,700 $131,000 $2,956,700 $33,600 1.15%
2018 est. $2,854,000 $136,900 $2,990,900 $34,200 1.16%
2019 est. $2,896,800 $143,100 $3,039,900 $49,000 1.64%
2020 est. $2,940,000 $149,500 $3,089,500 $49,600 1.63%
Utility Taxes CombinedHistory & Preliminary Forecast
21
YearElectric Utility
Tax
Water Utility
Tax
Wastewater
Utility Tax
Solid Waste-
Collections Tax
Solid Waste-
Trans. Sta. Tax
Stormwater
Utility TaxTotal Utility Tax
Variance over
Prior Yr. -- $$
Variance over
Prior Yr.--%
2005 $1,622,652 $259,395 $296,872 $211,723 $241,200 $23,449 $2,655,291 ($29,114) -0.0108
2006 $1,690,571 $313,429 $340,035 $243,003 $268,519 $29,048 $2,884,605 $229,314 8.64%
2007 $1,796,586 $359,553 $415,894 $267,996 $389,238 $28,513 $3,257,780 $373,175 12.94%
2008 $1,832,256 $367,452 $477,803 $240,177 $378,921 $56,715 $3,353,324 $95,544 2.93%
2009 $1,762,508 $487,201 $595,653 $228,789 $373,840 $58,134 $3,506,125 $152,801 4.56%
2010 $1,900,966 $522,452 $646,316 $222,062 $393,706 $58,156 $3,743,658 $237,533 6.77%
2011 $1,962,500 $502,878 $655,125 $220,993 $401,186 $58,455 $3,801,137 $57,479 1.54%
2012 $2,034,757 $464,157 $637,030 $198,877 $407,516 $58,842 $3,801,179 $42 0.00%
2013 $2,264,622 $515,209 $720,586 $234,403 $437,099 $88,049 $4,259,968 $458,789 12.07%
2014 $2,204,090 $559,252 $764,762 $283,203 $508,763 $119,691 $4,439,761 $179,793 4.22%
2015-A2 $1,751,900 $568,400 $734,100 $240,000 $512,400 $116,400 $3,923,200 ($516,561) -11.63%
2016 est. $1,796,000 $598,700 $773,400 $267,000 $534,000 $145,500 $4,114,600 $191,400 4.88%
2017 est. $1,835,000 $624,000 $814,800 $280,600 $556,500 $174,600 $4,285,500 $170,900 4.15%
2018 est. $1,840,000 $650,400 $858,400 $295,300 $579,900 $179,800 $4,403,800 $118,300 2.76%
2019 est. $1,933,000 $677,900 $904,300 $305,100 $604,300 $185,200 $4,609,800 $206,000 4.68%
2020 est. $2,056,000 $706,700 $952,700 $304,900 $629,700 $190,800 $4,840,800 $231,000 5.01%
Utility Tax Collection History & Preliminary Forecast
22
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-A2
2016
est
.
2017
est
.
2018
est
.
2019
est
.
2020
est
.
Electric Utility Tax Water Utility Tax
Wastewater Utility Tax Solid Waste Utility Tax
S.W. Transfer Station Utility Tax Stormwater Utility Tax
2015 Combined Utility TaxBudget vs. Actual
23
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 Budget Beginning 2015 Budget Amend #2 Actual
2015 Electric Utility TaxBudget vs. Actual
24
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2015 Budget Beginning 2015 Budget Amend #2 Actual
Electric Utility TaxHistory & Preliminary Forecast
25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Electric Utility Tax 1,547,497 1,683,988 1,622,652 1,690,571 1,796,586 1,832,256
Variance from Prior Year--$$ n/a 136,491 (61,336) 67,919 106,015 35,670
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a 8.82% -3.64% 4.19% 6.27% 1.99%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Electric Utility Tax 1,762,508 1,900,966 1,962,500 2,034,757 2,273,165 2,198,051
Variance from Prior Year--$$ (69,748) 138,458 61,534 72,257 238,408 (75,114)
Variance from Prior Year--% -3.81% 7.86% 3.24% 3.68% 11.72% -3.30%
2015 Amd. #2 2016 est. 2017 est. 2018 est. 2019 est. 2020 est.
Electric Utility Tax 1,751,900 1,796,000 1,835,000 1,840,000 1,933,000 2,056,000
Variance from Prior Year--$$ (446,151) 44,100 39,000 5,000 93,000 123,000
Variance from Prior Year--% -20.30% 2.52% 2.17% 0.27% 5.05% 6.36%
Note -- Beginning 2015 Budget $2,418,800
Elec. Utility Tax Reduction $666,900
License & Permit RevenueHistory & Preliminary Forecast
26
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000YearLicenses &
Permits
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $574,683 $187,894 0.4548
2006 $526,404 ($48,279) -8.40%
2007 $535,939 $9,535 1.81%
2008 $401,721 ($134,218) -25.04%
2009 $481,052 $79,331 19.75%
2010 $413,115 ($67,937) -14.12%
2011 $662,298 $249,183 60.32%
2012 $335,552 ($326,746) -49.34%
2013 $376,522 $40,970 12.21%
2014 $412,639 $36,117 9.59%
2015-A2 $616,200 $203,561 49.33%
2016 est. $524,500 ($91,700) -14.88%
2017 est. $531,900 $7,400 1.41%
2018 est. $539,400 $7,500 1.41%
2019 est. $547,100 $7,700 1.43%
2020 est. $555,100 $8,000 1.46%
Intergovernmental RevenueHistory & Preliminary Forecast
27
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000YearIntergov'tl.
Revenue
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $540,820 $177,004 0.4865
2006 $383,308 ($157,512) -29.12%
2007 $455,844 $72,536 18.92%
2008 $656,507 $200,663 44.02%
2009 $567,442 ($89,065) -13.57%
2010 $838,897 $271,455 47.84%
2011 $718,901 ($119,996) -14.30%
2012 $839,975 $121,074 16.84%
2013 $707,612 ($132,363) -15.76%
2014 $743,510 $35,898 5.07%
2015-A2 $584,800 ($158,710) -21.35%
2016 est. $467,300 ($117,500) -20.09%
2017 est. $424,900 ($42,400) -9.07%
2018 est. $432,800 $7,900 1.86%
2019 est. $440,900 $8,100 1.87%
2020 est. $449,000 $8,100 1.84%
Charges for Goods & ServicesHistory & Preliminary Forecast
28
$0
$1,000,000
$2,000,000
$3,000,000
$4,000,000
$5,000,000
$6,000,000
$7,000,000YearCharges for
Goods & Svcs.
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $4,196,946 ($261,456) -0.0586
2006 $3,953,626 ($243,320) -5.80%
2007 $4,283,249 $329,623 8.34%
2008 $4,510,878 $227,629 5.31%
2009 $4,698,014 $187,136 4.15%
2010 $4,474,468 ($223,546) -4.76%
2011 $5,009,317 $534,849 11.95%
2012 $4,761,503 ($247,814) -4.95%
2013 $5,187,832 $426,329 8.95%
2014 $5,339,994 $152,162 2.93%
2015-A2 $5,797,500 $457,506 8.57%
2016 est. $5,827,300 $29,800 0.51%
2017 est. $5,940,600 $113,300 1.94%
2018 est. $6,055,400 $114,800 1.93%
2019 est. $6,173,100 $117,700 1.94%
2020 est. $6,292,500 $119,400 1.93%
Fines & PenaltiesHistory & Preliminary Forecast
29
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000YearFines &
Penalties
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $243,012 ($30,482) -0.1115
2006 $296,891 $53,879 22.17%
2007 $301,504 $4,613 1.55%
2008 $295,201 ($6,303) -2.09%
2009 $315,920 $20,719 7.02%
2010 $282,153 ($33,767) -10.69%
2011 $256,663 ($25,490) -9.03%
2012 $225,242 ($31,421) -12.24%
2013 $227,937 $2,695 1.20%
2014 $207,869 ($20,068) -8.80%
2015-A2 $185,000 ($22,869) -11.00%
2016 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%
2017 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%
2018 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%
2019 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%
2020 est. $185,000 $0 0.00%
Miscellaneous RevenueHistory & Preliminary Forecast
30
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000YearMiscellaneous
Revenue
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $281,153 $101,176 0.5622
2006 $362,644 $81,491 28.98%
2007 $535,968 $173,324 47.79%
2008 $527,389 ($8,579) -1.60%
2009 $247,973 ($279,416) -52.98%
2010 $213,484 ($34,489) -13.91%
2011 $278,145 $64,661 30.29%
2012 $208,661 ($69,484) -24.98%
2013 $144,913 ($63,748) -30.55%
2014 $196,880 $51,967 35.86%
2015-A2 $156,700 ($40,180) -20.41%
2016 est. $159,300 $2,600 1.66%
2017 est. $162,400 $3,100 1.95%
2018 est. $166,100 $3,700 2.28%
2019 est. $170,000 $3,900 2.35%
2020 est. $174,000 $4,000 2.35%
Other Financing SourcesHistory & Preliminary Forecast
31
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000Year
Other Financing
Sources
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $254,200 ($1,064) -0.0042
2006 $324,536 $70,336 27.67%
2007 $286,036 ($38,500) -11.86%
2008 $294,200 $8,164 2.85%
2009 $349,200 $55,000 18.69%
2010 $1,112,122 $762,922 218.48%
2011 $164,028 ($948,094) -85.25%
2012 $251,270 $87,242 53.19%
2013 $233,459 ($17,811) -7.09%
2014 $538,878 $305,419 130.82%
2015-A2 $122,000 ($416,878) -77.36%
2016 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%
2017 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%
2018 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%
2019 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%
2020 est. $122,000 $0 0.00%
2015 General Fund ExpendituresBudget Amendment #2
10 Salaries & Wages, $9,555,500 , 47%
20 Personnel Benefits, $3,948,300 , 20%
30 Supplies, $733,250 , 4%
40 Services, $3,395,750 , 17%
50 Intergovernmental Services & Payments,
$2,452,900 , 12%
90 Interfund Payments for Services, $500 , 0%
32
Salaries & WagesHistory & Preliminary Forecast without COLA
33
$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000YearSalaries &
Wages
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $7,555,135 $64,548 0.0086
2006 $7,540,653 ($14,482) -0.19%
2007 $8,375,023 $834,370 11.06%
2008 $8,570,623 $195,600 2.34%
2009 $8,885,673 $315,050 3.68%
2010 $8,987,380 $101,707 1.14%
2011 $9,225,206 $237,826 2.65%
2012 $9,231,043 $5,837 0.06%
2013 $9,140,977 ($90,066) -0.98%
2014 $9,447,824 $306,847 3.36%
2015-A2 $9,555,500 $107,676 1.14%
2016 est. $9,356,900 ($198,600) -2.08%
2017 est. $9,385,000 $28,100 0.30%
2018 est. $9,413,300 $28,300 0.30%
2019 est. $9,441,800 $28,500 0.30%
2020 est. $9,470,300 $28,500 0.30%
Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA)Estimate of 2.0% COLA on Salaries & Wages
34
2016 Adjusted
Forecast
2017 Adjusted
Forecast
2018 Adjusted
Forecast
2019 Adjusted
Forecast
2020 Adjusted
Forecast
Base Salary & Wages
PERS Salaries & Wages 5,294,000 5,399,900 5,507,900 5,618,100 5,730,500
LEOFF Salaries & Wages 3,971,900 4,051,300 4,132,300 4,214,900 4,299,200
TOTAL Salaries & Wages $9,265,900 $9,451,200 $9,640,200 $9,833,000 $10,029,700
COLA @ 2.0% 185,300 189,000 192,800 196,700 200,600
Salaries + 2.0% COLA $9,451,200 $9,640,200 $9,833,000 $10,029,700 $10,230,300
Cumulative Direct Cost $185,300 $374,300 $567,100 $763,800 $964,400
Benefit Roll-up CostsPreliminary Forecast 2016 - 2020
35
2016 Adjusted
Forecast
2017 Adjusted
Forecast
2018 Adjusted
Forecast
2019 Adjusted
Forecast
2020 Adjusted
Forecast
Roll-up Costs:
FICA @ 6.2%
PERS-related FICA 6,600 6,700 6,800 7,000 7,100
LEOFF-related FICA 0 0 0 0 0
Total FICA $6,600 $6,700 $6,800 $7,000 $7,100
Medicare @ 1.45%
PERS-related Medicare 1,500 1,600 1,600 1,600 1,700
LEOFF-related Medicare 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Total Medicare $2,700 $2,800 $2,800 $2,800 $2,900
Retirement
PERS @ 11.18% 11,800 12,100 12,300 12,600 12,800
LEOFF @ 5.23% 4,200 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,500
Total Retirement $16,000 $16,300 $16,600 $17,000 $17,300
TOTAL BENEFIT ROLL-UP $25,300 $25,800 $26,200 $26,800 $27,300
Estimated Cost – 2.0% COLA + Benefit Roll-upPreliminary Forecast 2016 – 2020
36
2016 Adjusted
Forecast
2017 Adjusted
Forecast
2018 Adjusted
Forecast
2019 Adjusted
Forecast
2020 Adjusted
Forecast
Base Salary & Wages 9,265,900 9,451,200 9,640,200 9,833,000 10,029,700
COLA Costs 185,300 374,300 567,100 763,800 964,400
COLA Salaries & Wages $9,451,200 $9,825,500 $10,207,300 $10,596,800 $10,994,100
Base Benefits 3,864,600 4,057,800 4,260,700 4,473,700 4,697,400
COLA-related Benefits 25,300 25,800 26,200 26,800 27,300
REVISED Benefits $3,889,900 $4,083,600 $4,286,900 $4,500,500 $4,724,700
Begin Salary & Benefits 9,265,900 9,476,500 9,691,300 9,910,300 10,133,800
COLA Cost 185,300 189,000 192,800 196,700 200,600
ROLL-up Cost 25,300 25,800 26,200 26,800 27,300
Revised Salary & Benefits $9,476,500 $9,691,300 $9,910,300 $10,133,800 $10,361,700
Cumulative COLA & Ben. $210,600 $610,700 $1,204,000 $1,994,600 $2,986,300
Personnel BenefitsHistory & Preliminary Forecast without COLA
37
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000
$5,000,000YearPersonnel
Benefits
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $2,277,408 ($64,621) -0.0276
2006 $2,351,457 $74,049 3.25%
2007 $2,804,338 $452,881 19.26%
2008 $2,976,661 $172,323 6.14%
2009 $3,059,221 $82,560 2.77%
2010 $3,144,934 $85,713 2.80%
2011 $3,514,733 $369,799 11.76%
2012 $3,390,148 ($124,585) -3.54%
2013 $3,609,527 $219,379 6.47%
2014 $3,517,223 ($92,304) -2.56%
2015-A2 $3,948,300 $431,077 12.26%
2016 est. $3,910,900 ($37,400) -0.95%
2017 est. $4,012,000 $101,100 2.59%
2018 est. $4,046,700 $34,700 0.86%
2019 est. $4,175,700 $129,000 3.19%
2020 est. $4,288,800 $113,100 2.71%
SuppliesHistory & Preliminary Forecast
38
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000Year SuppliesVariance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $707,951 $225,548 0.4676
2006 $495,003 ($212,948) -30.08%
2007 $526,770 $31,767 6.42%
2008 $490,166 ($36,604) -6.95%
2009 $488,461 ($1,705) -0.35%
2010 $574,019 $85,558 17.52%
2011 $627,801 $53,782 9.37%
2012 $607,889 ($19,912) -3.17%
2013 $654,687 $46,798 7.70%
2014 $663,648 $8,961 1.37%
2015-A2 $733,250 $69,602 10.49%
2016 est. $739,800 $6,550 0.89%
2017 est. $754,100 $14,300 1.93%
2018 est. $772,500 $18,400 2.44%
2019 est. $791,200 $18,700 2.42%
2020 est. $810,200 $19,000 2.40%
ServicesHistory & Preliminary Forecast
39
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000
$4,000,000
$4,500,000Year ServicesVariance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $2,260,386 $80,410 0.0369
2006 $2,470,222 $209,836 9.28%
2007 $2,635,424 $165,202 6.69%
2008 $2,578,494 ($56,930) -2.16%
2009 $2,404,573 ($173,921) -6.75%
2010 $2,466,628 $62,055 2.58%
2011 $2,478,484 $11,856 0.48%
2012 $2,585,280 $106,796 4.31%
2013 $2,453,208 ($132,072) -5.11%
2014 $3,099,329 $646,121 26.34%
2015-A2 $3,396,800 $297,471 9.60%
2016 est. $3,438,400 $41,600 1.22%
2017 est. $3,482,700 $44,300 1.29%
2018 est. $3,572,800 $90,100 2.59%
2019 est. $3,682,400 $109,600 3.07%
2020 est. $3,827,100 $144,700 3.93%
Intergovernmental Services & Payments History & Preliminary Forecast
40
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
$3,000,000
$3,500,000YearIntergov'tl.
Svcs. & Pmts.
Variance from
Prior Year--$$
Variance from
Prior Year--%
2005 $2,633,751 $720,946 0.3769
2006 $3,175,877 $542,126 20.58%
2007 $1,556,314 ($1,619,563) -51.00%
2008 $3,303,313 $1,746,999 112.25%
2009 $2,373,304 ($930,009) -28.15%
2010 $1,848,558 ($524,746) -22.11%
2011 $2,493,550 $644,992 34.89%
2012 $2,538,549 $44,999 1.80%
2013 $2,441,398 ($97,151) -3.83%
2014 $3,024,539 $583,141 23.89%
2015-A2 $2,443,750 ($580,789) -19.20%
2016 est. $2,430,600 ($13,150) -0.54%
2017 est. $2,427,900 ($2,700) -0.11%
2018 est. $2,477,700 $49,800 2.05%
2019 est. $2,529,900 $52,200 2.11%
2020 est. $2,670,900 $141,000 5.57%
Transfers Out from the General Fund toOther Agencies or Funds
Recipient Agency or Fund Name & Number2015
Amendment #22016 Estimate 2017 Estimate 2018 Estimate 2019 Estimate 2020 Estimate
Health & Human Services (United Way) $46,350 $34,763 $23,175 $11,588 $0 $0
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a ($11,587) ($11,588) ($11,587) ($11,588) $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a -25.00% -33.33% -50.00% -100.00% n/a
Humane Society $53,400 $40,050 $26,700 $13,350 $0 $0
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a ($13,350) ($13,350) ($13,350) ($13,350) $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a -25.00% -33.33% -50.00% -100.00% n/a
Feiro Marine Life Center $22,500 $16,875 $11,250 $5,625 $0
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a ($5,625) ($5,625) ($5,625) ($5,625) $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a -25.00% -33.33% -50.00% -100.00% n/a
Street Fund #102 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600 $846,600
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% n/a
Port Angeles Fine Arts Center (PAFAC) $24,800 $18,600 $12,400 $6,200 $0 $0
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a ($6,200) ($6,200) ($6,200) ($6,200) $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a -25.00% -33.33% -50.00% -100.00% n/a
Medic 1 Fund #409 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000 $448,000
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% n/a
Total Transfers Out $1,441,650 $1,404,888 $1,368,125 $1,331,363 $1,294,600 $1,294,600
Variance from Prior Year--$ n/a ($36,762) ($36,763) ($36,762) ($36,763) $0
Variance from Prior Year--% n/a -2.55% -2.62% -2.69% -2.76% n/a
41
Adult Detention & Court CostsHistory & Forecast
Adult
Detention
(Jail)
Court Costs Total
2005 224,168 65,438 $289,606
2006 346,738 74,739 $421,477
2007 321,092 72,566 $393,658
2008 338,322 108,306 $446,628
2009 436,084 112,765 $548,849
2010 593,395 112,928 $706,323
2011 599,518 115,759 $715,277
2012 796,311 117,704 $914,015
2013 770,196 117,179 $887,375
2014 699,306 109,363 $808,669
2015-A2 630,000 134,000 $764,000
2016 est. 687,400 229,600 $917,000
2017 est. 721,800 241,100 $962,900
2018 est. 757,900 253,200 $1,011,100
2019 est. 795,800 265,900 $1,061,700
2020 est. 835,600 279,200 $1,114,800
$0
$200,000
$400,000
$600,000
$800,000
$1,000,000
$1,200,000
Adult Detention (Jail) Court Costs
42
A New Direction for Criminal Justice & Courts
▪ Criminal Justice consolidation:
▪ Expected Benefits include:
▪ Eliminates duplication of Government Services
▪ Cost Containment
▪ Budget Predictability
▪ Operating Efficiencies
▪ Prosecutorial Continuity
43
General Fund Support for Street Fund #102 +Street Fund Revenue History & Prelim. Forecast
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 A-2 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.
TAXES
Property Tax 463,480 468,115 472,796 477,524 482,299 482,299 482,299 482,299
Transportation Benefit District 250,000 350,000 700,000 700,000
LICENSES & PERMITS
Street/Alley Restoration 3,880 4,830 7,290 3,470 4,400 400
INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE
Disaster Grant 1,793 14,742 69 9,297 33,368
Dept. of Military/FEMA 287 2,469 1,550 5,561
Signal Maintenance 23,915 52,971
Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax 396,108 434,257 459,652 435,257 417,035 417,167 400,531 389,891 394,852 394,400 387,300 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000
CHARGES for GOODS & SERVICES
Engineering Charges 302 1,277 513 809 275 25
Uncollectable Amounts Recovered
Street Maintenance & Repairs
Interfund Service Charges 103,862
MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES
Investment Interest 17,666 28,729 26,781 36,766 16,077 10,958 11,272 1,717 (125) 7,196 2,000
Parking Related Revenue & Leases 44,000 45,000 46,000 47,000 48,000 49,000
Interdepartmental Revenue 7,383 15,311 15,311 26,966 516,292 462,901 474,050 544,620 453,599 202,000 202,000 202,000 202,000 202,000 202,000
Sale of Scrap & Junk 196 709 477 366
Judgments & Settlements 5,401 5,140 1,759 21,617 7,886 210 7,676 154
Miscellaneous Revenue 71 7,337 553 1,054 1,000
CAPITAL CONTRIBUTIONS
Construction Contribution 1,568 3,611 3,795 398
OTHER FINANCING SOURCES
Recurring Transfers 240,000
Street Related Transfers 355,000 650,000 715,000 516,000 348,800 295,000 316,000 400,000 922,000 996,600 996,600 996,600 996,600 996,600 886,000 850,000
TOTAL STREET FUND #102 REVENUE $1,512,833 $1,659,353 $1,698,660 $1,528,887 $1,402,654 $1,723,217 $1,685,760 $1,759,599 $1,900,829 $1,853,672 $1,632,900 $1,643,600 $1,894,600 $1,995,600 $2,236,000 $2,201,000
44
Street Funding +Transportation Benefit District
▪ The General Fund provides funding that has ranged from:
▪ 45% (2010) - 70% of the Street Fund budget during the period of 2005 – 2015.
▪ $777,300 (2010) - $1,187,800 (2007) for the same period
▪ 2015: $996,000 @ 61% of Street Fund budget
▪ Capital needs to adequately repair/replace existing streets in Port Angeles totals $120 million (raising road conditions from “poor” to “good”)
▪ To simply arrest degradation, capital needs should be an additional $1 million annually (chip sealing)
▪ Ability of the General Fund to maintain existing support is problematic given all other demands on the General Fund
▪ Transportation Benefit District (TBD) has two option for formation:
▪ Council-approved $20 “car tab” that can be increased after two (2) years; or
▪ Voter-approved sales tax or car tab fee above $20
45
General Fund Support for Medic 1 Fund #409 +Medic 1 Fund Revenue History & Prelim. Forecast
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 A-2 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Actual Budget Est. Est. Est. Est. Est.
INTERGOVERNMENTAL REVENUE
Port Security Grant 70,270 34,351
DSHS Grant 1,463 1,439 1,644 1,726 2,186 1,738 1,534 1,208 1,473 1,341 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300
CHARGES for GOODS & SERVICES
Fire/First Aid Classes 1,560 12,725 11,483 14,532 12,420 13,210 15,890 17,233 22,595 12,472 11,105 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000
Class/Training Reimbursement 150 1,200
Medic 1 Fees 143,348 461,749 467,384 500,063 524,012 541,105 589,965 590,982 641,738 673,080 670,500 697,300 725,200 754,200 784,400 815,800
Medic 1 Ambulance Services 171,086 505,051 654,309 617,122 581,370 587,715 609,275 636,816 628,244 628,652 620,000 644,800 670,600 697,400 725,300 754,300
Medic 1 Write-Offs (13,970) (54,806) (77,328) (65,107) (78,793) (60,752) (101,952) (139,069) (120,866) (91,828) (135,000) (140,400) (146,000) (151,800) (157,900) (164,200)
Ambulance Personnel Reimbursement 1,566 460 495 398 325 200
Uncollectable Amounts Recovered 3,054 1,174 475 250 183 841 710 584 783 500 500 500 500 500 500
MISCELLANEOUS REVENUES
Investment Interest 923 2,779 2,822 2,719 2,211 1,393 597 74 3,171 1,000 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200 1,200
Medic 1 Penalty--Utility Billing 260 991 1,067 1,058 1,187 1,262 1,595 1,644 1,834 1,911 1,250 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300 1,300
Uncollectable Amounts Recovered (39)
Gifts/Pledges-Private 4,649 20 130 500
Miscellaneous Revenue 1,978 25 724 26 10,436 620 500 500 500 500 500
OTHER FINANCING SOURCES
Recurring Transfers 11,617 265,000 324,160 300,000 346,912 360,000 374,000 386,000 435,500 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000 448,000
Miscellaneous Transfers 15,428
TOTAL MEDIC 1 FUND #409 REVENUE $320,489 $1,213,164 $1,387,082 $1,373,828 $1,392,701 $1,447,270 $1,494,270 $1,566,743 $1,610,911 $1,722,501 $1,619,516 $1,666,500 $1,714,600 $1,764,600 $1,816,600 $1,870,700
Variance from Prior Yr. -- $ 136,562 892,675 173,918 (13,254) 18,873 54,569 47,000 72,473 44,168 111,590 (102,985) 46,984 48,100 50,000 52,000 54,100
Variance from Prior Yr. -- % 9.92% 278.54% 14.34% -0.96% 1.37% 3.92% 3.25% 4.85% 2.82% 6.93% -5.98% 2.90% 2.89% 2.92% 2.95% 2.98%
46
Medic 1 Revenue Challenges & Options
▪ Ability of General Fund to sustain current level of support
▪ Need for additional Firefighter/Paramedics
▪ Increasing workload – 2014 busiest year ever by over 400 calls for service
▪ 2015 – call volume is several hundred calls greater than 2014!
▪ Coverage for on-the-job injuries & sick leave
▪ Revenue options:
▪ Increase Medic 1 utility rate to provide funding for additional Firefighters/Paramedics
▪ Examine potential for a voter-approved Public Safety sales tax:
▪ Could provide funding for both Police & Fire
▪ Sales tax option would allow for visitors & tourists to help pay for Public Safety
47
2016 – 2020 General Fund Preliminary Forecast -- Summary
▪ Revenues:
▪ Significant challenge due to loss of electric utility tax
▪ Limited tax growth in property and/or sales tax
▪ Assessed value has declined for six consecutive years
▪ Lack of significant, new retail operations limits growth in sales tax
▪ Should we look at a voter-approved Public Safety sales tax for additional support for Police & Fire?
▪ Expenditures:
▪ Expenses rising faster than revenue growth
▪ Employee benefits
▪ Health insurance
▪ Retirement
▪ Utility costs
▪ General Fund support for Street Fund #102 and Medic 1 Fund #409 in question:
▪ To continue at same level as 2015 may require reduction in budgets for other General Fund activities
▪ Options for consideration to reduce reliance on General Fund
▪ Street Fund – Transportation Benefit District
▪ Medic 1 Fund – Utility rate increase
48
2016 – 2020 Financial ForecastNext Steps▪ Continue to revise General Fund forecast in light of changing environment
▪ Complete 2016 – 2020 forecast:
▪ Lodging Tax Fund #101
▪ Street Fund #102
▪ Real Estate Excise Tax 1 (REET-1) Fund #105
▪ PenCom Fund #107
▪ Port Angeles Fine Arts Center Fund #156
▪ Real Estate Excise Tax 2 (REET-2) Fund #160
▪ Medic 1 Fund #409
▪ Equipment Services Fund #501
▪ Information Technology Fund #502
▪ Self-Insurance Fund #503
▪ Assemble City Manager proposed Budget for 2016
▪ Revise 2017 – 2021 Forecast based on 2016 Proposed Budget & 2016 Adopted Budget – add additional year to forecast
49