explorer · 2016-06-16 · 2 sbi: opportunities in technology commercialization clients use...
TRANSCRIPT
© 2011 by Strategic Business Insights. All rights reserved.
Explorer:Understanding Technology
Commercialization—Opportunities and
Disruptions
October 2011
Nick Evans Ph.D.
Vice President
Director of Explorer
www.strategicbusinessinsights.com
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SBI: Opportunities in Technology
Commercialization
Clients use Strategic Business Insights’ expertise and services
to maximize opportunities resulting from technology
commercialization. We help our clients to:
• understand the implications of uncertainty and change
• recognize a technology that has the potential to be disruptive
• make decisions to determine whether an emerging
technology is an opportunity or a threat to their
organizations
• exploit the technology strategically
Strategic Business Insights is the former Business Intelligence division of SRI International, previously known
as the Stanford Research Institute.
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SBI and WKO/Advantage Austria:
Explorer
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Strategic Business Insights’ Explorer
Service
Understanding the drivers and barriers, and the
implications of technology commercialization
Identification and evaluation of opportunities and
threats from a changing technology landscape.
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Accessing Explorer
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Advanced Displays
Bioelectronics
Biomachines
Biomimetics
Carbon Nanotubes
Cleanup Bacteria
Cloning
Combinatorial Designed Materials
DNA Bar Codes
Free-Space Optics
Gene Therapy
GM Foods/Organisms
Grid Computing
High-Temperature Superconductors
Holographic Storage
Human-Machine Interfaces
Internet II
Ion Propulsion
Lab-on-a-Chip/Microreactors
Microactuators
Microbatteries
Microfuel Cells
Microturbines
Atomic and molecular manipulation*
Diamond thin films*
High-temperature superconductors*
Neural networks*
Molecular electronics*
Optical processing*
Antiviral technology
Catalytic antibodies
Cold fusion
Liquid-crystal polymers*
Desktop manufacturing*
Vacuum microelectronics*
Virtual environments*
DNA technologies*
Advanced Silicon Microelectronics/ULSI
Biocatalysis
Biomaterials
Biopolymers
Biosensors
Connected Cars
Connected Homes
Engineering Polymers
Flat-Panel Displays
Fuel Cells
Genomics
Knowledge-Based Systems
Knowledge-Management Tools
Membrane Separation
MEMS/Micromachining
Mobile Communications
Nanobiotechnology
Technologies: Opportunity or Threat?
How? To Who? When?
Affective Computing
Biofuels and Bio-Based Chemicals
Biomedical Imaging
Clean Coal
Energy Storage Materials
Green Buildings
Healthspan and Lifespan Extension
Human Behavioral Modeling
Internet of Things
Mixed Reality
Nanoelectronics
Nanomaterials
Novel Ceramic/Metallic Materials
Optoelectronics/Photonics
Organic Electronics
Pervasive Computing
Photovoltaics
Polymer-Matrix Composites
Portable Electronic Devices
Portable Power
Renewable Energy technologies
RFID Technologies
Robotics
Smart Materials
Solid-State Microsensors
User Interfaces
Virtual Worlds
Miniaturization
Molecular Electronics
Nanomachining
Nanorobots
Nonspeech Recognition
Perpetual Energy (Space Electricity)
Personal Factory
Photonic Bandgap Materials
Quantum Computers
Quantum Energy
Recycling Technologies
Replication
Self-Clean Materials
Self-Repair Materials
Spintronics
Systems Biology
Teleportation
Thermal Piles
Tissue Regeneration
Underwater/Space Mining
Virtual Reality
Weather Control/Climate Modeling
Biomimetic materials*
Composite electronic materials*
Vehicle navigation and route
guidance**
Micromachining**
Buckminsterfullerenes*
Carbohydrate engineering*
Artificial life
Data visualization
Next-generation lasers
Telepresence*
Chaos theory
Human gene therapy*
Molecular Electronics
Molecular Manufacturing
Neurotechnology
Personal Robotics
Plug-in Electric Vehicles
Printed Electronics
Quantum Computing
Synthetic Biology
Systems Biology
Thin-film Solar Cells
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Identifying and Monitoring Technologies
• Thousands of technologies exist
• Any one technology could be an opportunity or a
threat to any specific organization
• Under certain conditions some technologies have the
power to be disruptive across an industry or even
globally.
The future is uncertain. How do you identify and then
evaluate the impact of emerging technologies?
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Selection and Prioritization of
Technologies of Interest
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Generate ideas
Apply filters
Rank: Select the most appropriate
to meet the prioritization criteria
Set Objectives (set the scope and define
necessary filters).
Review with all interested parties.
Form clusters
Expand descriptions
Create required
Technology Profiles
Step 4:
Step 2:
Step 3:
Step 1:
Step 6:
Step 7:
Step 5: Refine filters if not sufficient
Selection of technologies for Explorer
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Explorer’s Priorities: Commercial
Evaluation of 32 Technology Areas
Artificial Intelligence
Biocatalysis
Biomaterials
Biopolymers
Biosensors
Collaboration Tools
Connected Cars
Connected Homes
Engineering Polymers
Flat-Panel Displays
Fuel Cells
Membrane Separation
MEMS/Micromachining
Mobile Communications
Nanobiotechnology
Nanoelectronics
Nanomaterials
Novel Ceramic/Metallic Materials
Optoelectronics/Photonics
Organic Electronics
Pervasive Computing
Photovoltaics
Polymer-Matrix Composites
Portable Electronic Devices
Portable Power
Renewable Energy Technologies
RFID Technologies
Robotics
Smart Materials
Solid-State Microsensors
User Interfaces
Virtual Worlds
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Understanding the Sources of
Uncertainty
Business World
• Strategy
• Competition
• Value Chain/Web
• Globalization
• Partnerships/Alliances
A Turbulent
Marketplace
Technology• Invention &
Innovation
• Diffusion
• Convergence
Society & Culture• Government
• Consumer Behavior
• Public Opinion
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Explorer: Tap into SBI’s Technology
Commercialization Expertise
Clients have access to:
• Technology Maps—The focus of our current thinking
• Viewpoints—Monthly interpretations of events of
significance
• Consultation—Clarifications and opinions from our analysts
Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoint
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We integrate our current evaluations into a commercially focused
Technology Map—which we review on an ongoing basis.
Technology Maps:
Structure
Technology Maps have five key sections reflecting elements of
change that we monitor, question, and evaluate:
• Technology evolution
• Commercial development parameters—drivers of and
barriers to the technology’s commercialization
• Issues and uncertainties
• Implications of commercialization
• Resultant opportunities—applications and value chains
Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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Technology Map Charts
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Explorer Technology Maps:
Charts of Commercial Exploration
Commercial Development Parameters
Issues and Uncertainties
ImplicationsBuilding Blocks of the
Technology
Opportunities: Applications
Opportunities: Business Environment
Players
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1: Understand the Technology
Pervasive Computing Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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2: Understand the Commercial
Development Parameters
Pervasive Computing Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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High
Medium
Low
Impact
HighMediumLow
Uncertainty
3: Understand the Issues and
Uncertainties
Pervasive Computing
Wireless
Networks
Smart Spaces
Privacy Human-
Computer
Interfaces
Security
Software
Productivity
Intelligent
Agents
Standards and
Interoperability
Context
Awareness
Business
Models
AREAS TO MONITOR
Power Sources
Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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4: Understand the Implications of
Commercialization
Pervasive Computing Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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5: Focus On The Applications That Can
Be Opportunities
Energy-Saving
Systems
Self-RepairVibration
Control
Haptic
Orthopedics and
Prosthetics
Self-Powered
Monitoring Devices
Smart and
Adaptive
Structures
Smart Structures
Aerospace and
Defense
Automotive
Medical
Engine, Drive-Train and
Suspension Components
Smart Mirrors Self-Repairing Coatings
Vibration and
Noise Control
NDTEVibration Control
Actuators
Structural Monitoring
Minimally
Invasive
Surgery
Drug Delivery
Medical Analysis
Valves
and SealsEarthquake Dampers Noise Control
Motors and Actuators
Light and
Heat Control
Fasteners
Industrial, Power
and Construction
Industry Current Applications
Emerging Applications
Within 5 Years Within 10 Years
Smart Materials Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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Opportunities Have Value Chains
Title Title Title
Enabling Components Applications
Defense Systems
• BAE Systems
• Northrop Grumman
• Raytheon
• United Technologies
• EADS NV
Key R&D and Funding
• QinetiQ
• DARPA
• U.S. Navy
• U.S. Army
• SRI International
• MIT
• NASA
• ORNL
Aircraft
• Boeing
• Airbus
• Bombardier
• Dassault
• Saab AB
• Hindustan Aerospace
• Lockheed Martin
• General Dynamics
• Textron
• Thales
Aerospace Components
• Rolls-Royce
• Smiths Industries
• General Electric
• Siemens AG
• Textron
Magnetostrictives
• Newlands Scientific
• Etrema Products
Shape-Memory Alloys
• Adaptamat
• Memory Metalle
• NDC
• Memry Corp.
• Dynalloy, Inc.
• Heraeus Materials
Smart Polymers
• Cornerstone
• Bayer MaterialScience
Piezoelectrics
• Many Suppliers
Research and
Development
Smart Materials
�and
Components
Parts and
Systems
Aircraft,
Vehicles,
and Weapons
VALUE CHAIN FOR SMART MATERIALS IN AEROSPACE AND DEFENSE APPLICATIONS
Smart Materials Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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Realism Comes From Asking the Right
Questions
Commercial Development Parameters
Issues and Uncertainties
ImplicationsBuilding Blocks of the
Technology
Opportunities: Applications
Opportunities: Business Environment
Players
Knowledge Supposition Implications Opportunities
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Explorer Service:
Viewpoints
Monthly Viewpoints:
• Alert clients to events that our technology analysts believe will be significant regarding developments and the commercialization of the technology in specific applications
• Build on or modify the arguments in the Technology Map before its next update
• Provide a December/January overview of progress in the past year and events to look for in the coming year.
Consultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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Viewpoints ListConsultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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Connected Cars ViewpointsConsultation
Technology Maps
Viewpoints
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How Do Clients Use Explorer?
Our clients get many valuable insights from Explorer,
enhancing their own internal processes to understand
the implications of technology developments and
commercialization in this changing world.
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How Can You Use Explorer?
Explorer will:
• Help you to identify potential technology-enabled
opportunities to monitor
• Bring you up the learning curve fast in technology areas
and applications new to you
• Challenge or support your current thinking
• Reduce the risk of surprise
• Extend your peripheral vision.
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Examples of How Some Clients Use
Explorer
• Through Advantage Austria, WKO gives access to Explorer
to Austria’s SMEs to stimulate them to think outside of their
comfort zones when seeking new opportunities in
technology commercialization.
• A WDC government intelligence agency uses Explorer’s
ongoing evaluations of the timing and consequences of
technology commercialization to test its internal evaluations
of the disruptive potential of commercializing technologies
in new applications.
• A major European science park uses Explorer to help with
its evaluation of technology opportunities to assist its start-
ups in their technology transfer efforts.
• A U.S. chemicals producer uses Explorer to identify
changing demands in application areas that could provide
opportunities for its range of existing chemicals and those in
development.