20151127 foresight of wind power industry by 2050

Maxwell Venture Service LLC All Rights Reserved & Confidential

Foresight of Wind Power Industry by 2050

Maxwell Chen 陳世芳CEO & Business/Investment Architect

Maxwell Venture Service LLC

Global Wind Power Investment Summit in Taiwan

2015/11/27

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


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Maxwell Venture Service LLC. The information contained therein is accurate as of the date thereof.

However, that information may be updated, amended, supplemented or otherwise modified by

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• In addition to the historical information contained therein, these materials contain forward-looking

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regarding company, industry, geographic, product, technology or demand projections, estimates, forecasts,

trends, growth or opportunities, or our positioning or ability to capitalize thereon; target business or

financial outlook, projections, estimates, guidance, forecasts, trends or growth; target business or growth

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words such as "expects," "believes," "anticipates," "projects," "estimates," "guidance" and similar

expressions. Actual results may differ materially from those referred to in the forward-looking statements

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parties that we infringe their intellectual property; global economic conditions that impact the industry and

the potential impact on demand for our analysis and forecast. We undertake no obligation to update any

forward-looking statements.

• Content in this presentation is for reference only and should not be a basis for any investment or

business decision making. Maxwell Venture Service LLC assumes no liability.

2


Every CEO needs an independent-

thinking friend who tells the truth.

We provide SECURITY and RELIABILITY

for your business.


Introduction of Maxwell Chen

• Education：

2002~2004：M.S., Management of Technology, National Chiao Tung University

1996~2000：B.S., Electronic Engineering, National Chiao Tung University

• Venture Capital Experience (since 2004)：

(1) Sunsino Venture Capital Group, (2) Vertex Venture Holdings, a Temasek

Holdings company.(3) C Squared Capital, (4)Waterland Venture Capital, a

Waterland Financial Holdings company.(5) Sasson Capital, a MTI company.

• Board of Directors：

2015/08~now：CEO & Business/Investment Architect at Maxwell Venture

Service LLC. (麥斯管理顧問有限公司), Also an angel investor.

2015/02~now：Member of the Supervisory Board at uSenlight Inc. (佑勝光電)

2014/05~now：Member of the Supervisory Board at Dexatek Technology (海峽數碼)

• Successful Exit Investment (19 cases)：穩懋半導體(WIN Semiconductor)、創意電子(Global Unichip)、光環科技(TrueLight)、上詮光纖(FOCI)、隆達電子(Lextar Electronics)、晶宏半導體(UltraChip)、韋僑科技(Securitag Assembly

Group)、全智科技(Giga Solution)、笙泉科技(Megawin Technology)。聯銓科技(EPITECH )、元砷光電(SOUTH EPITAXY)、聯鈞光電(eLaser)、前鼎光電(APAC Opto Electronics)、奇力光電(Chi Mei

Lighting Technology)、興能高科技(SYNergy ScienTech)、星通資訊(Loop Telecom)、光頡科技(Viking

Tech)、高平磊晶(Kopin Taiwan)、聯勝光電(High Power Opto)。

4


Omni-industry Analysis & Proactive Investment

• Omni-industry Analysis： (http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/)

• 離岸風力發電(Offshore Wind Power)/海底電纜(Submarine Cable)

• 物聯網(IoT)通訊系統(IoT Communication Systems)

• 超級智慧電網 (Super Smart Grid)/數位電源控制(Digital Power Control)

• 微機電/半導體/IC設計/IP設計 (MEMS/Semiconductor/IC Design/IP Design)

• 電動車(EV)/電動機車(E-scooter)/電動腳踏車(E-bike)/能源服務(Energy Service)

• 醫療設備(Medical Equipment)/醫療感測器(Medical Sensors)

• 生質能(Biomass)/再生能源(Renewable Energies)/石油與天然(頁岩)氣(Oil & Natural/Shale

Gas)

• 新材料(New Materials)/穿戴式電子(Wearable Electronics)

• 科技農漁業(Technology Agriculture & Fisheries)

• 水資源(Water Resources)

• 國際連鎖企業(International Chain Enterprise)/社會企業(Social Enterprise)/媒體與網路(Media & Internet)/文創產業(Cultural Enterprise)

• 智慧型機器人(Intelligent Robot)/航太(Aerospace)/精密機械(Precision Machinery)

• Proactive Investment：Teaming up CEO, Chairman, CTO, Investors

for establishing uSenlight Inc. It’s based on my business plan and

relationships.

5

http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/


Outline

• Market Size：My Forecast from 2000 to 2050 vs. Global Potentials

• Cost Reduction Curve

Onshore from 1980 to 2050; Offshore from 2005 to 2050

There are More Rooms to Grow Non-Hydro Renewable Power in Taiwan

Factors Driving Cost Reduction ：Competitions、Technology Improvements、Economies of Scale

• Taiwan Supply Chain & Today’s Agendas

Onshore Supply Chain; Offshore Supply Chain

Taiwan supply chain is getting ready to develop offshore wind power.

• From Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer/Protector

• Policy Ecosystem

Power Market is a Part of Financial Market

• Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits & Onshore Super Smart Grid

• Conclusion

• Acknowledgement

• Q&A

6


Global Wind Power Market by 2050

• CAGR from 2000-2050： (1) World：11.66%; (2) Onshore：10.73%; (3)

Offshore：23.71%。

2030, 1264GW

2050, 2834GW

2015, 13GW

2020, 46GW

2030, 297GW

2050, 1481GW

2015, 423GW

2020, 676GW

2050, 4315GW

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2000-2050 Global Wind Power Cumulative Capacity

Onshore Cumulative Capacity (GW) Offshore Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Global Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Source: GWEC, EWEA, AWEA, MAKE Consulting, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

Crazy Forecast?

7


World Wind Potentials 250TW@100m

• If wind turbines cover all areas in the world, there is 6,000TW.

• These saturation potentials are >250TW at 100 m globally, approximately

80 TW at 100 m over land plus coastal ocean (nearshore). (1TW=1,000GW)

• 4,315GW/250,000GW = 1.73%; 2,834GW/80,000GW = 3.54%.

Source: Mark Z. Jacobson, "Saturation wind power potential and its implications for wind energy", September 25, 2012 vol. 109 no. 39,

PNAS., http://www.pnas.org/content/109/39/15679.abstract

NO, It’s reasonable.

8

http://www.pnas.org/content/109/39/15679.abstract


Average LCOE in Good to Excellent Wind Sites & US Wind Power Capacity

Source: Wind Vision:A New Era for Wind Power in the United States, US Department of Energy, 2015

9


US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, $/MWh

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

10


Regional Effects on LCOE in the US

Source: Source: 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report, US Department of Energy, August 2015

US$62.5/MWh

(LBNL)

Interior is about

US$48/MWh, 23%

lower than Nationwide

11


US Onshore Wind LCOE without PTC, 1980-2050, NT$/KWh

Source: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

USD/TWD=32.5

12


Source of UK Offshore Wind LCOE

• Roughly estimation by Maxwell： (the model doesn’t consider O&M inflation)

2010：150 ₤/MWh (US$227/MWh, NT$7.419/KWh)

2020：85 ₤/MWh (US$139/MWh, NT$4.204/KWh)

2030：55 ₤/MWh (US$83/MWh, NT$2.720/KWh)

2040：35 ₤/MWh (US$53/MWh, NT$1.731/KWh)

2050：25 ₤/MWh (US$38/MWh, NT$1.237/KWh)

Source 2005 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2020 2023 2030

Crown Estate (₤/MWh) 140 140 140 140 90-100

BVG Associate

(₤/MWh) 110 80

NREL (₤/MWh)

160-

190 150-190 70-110 60-100

EY Associate (₤/MWh) 85

ORE Catapult

(₤/MWh)136

(Works Completed)

136

(Works Completed)

121

(FID)

121

(FID)

121

(FID)

114

(CfD)

Prognos & Fichtner

(₤/MWh), Site A,

Germany, Scenario 2 90 81 68 57

Prognos & Fichtner

(₤/MWh), Site B,


Prognos & Fichtner

(₤/MWh), Site C,


Source：Crown Estate, BVG Associate, NREL, EY Associate, ORE Catapult, EWEA; sorting by Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

Exchange Rate： GBP/USD=1.51551, GBP/EUR=1.42609391

13


11% Decline in LCOE in the UK this Year

• Results in 2015 confirmed an 11% decline in LCOE in the UK, ahead of a

predicted cost reduction pathway set out by the Crown Estate.

• Europe accounts for 92% of all offshore wind installations globally.

Growing at a five year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, the

strong build-up of this emerging industry has resulted in total cumulative

installations topping 10 GW in 2015.

Crown Estate

Estimation

14


Estimation of Prognos & Fichtner

15


Asia Manufacturing Effects

• According to IRENA, average LCOE in China & India is around 43.75%

lower than OECD countries.

• We assume the price gaps are around 0% between 2000-2010, 40% to 30%

between 2010-2020, 30% to 20% between 2020-2030, 20% to 10% between

2030-2040, and 10% to 0% between 2040-2050.

16


Optimistic Wind Farm Variation 8-25% below Average

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation

8% below the average ???

25% below the average

17


Wind Farm Variation by BVG Association

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LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in EU

2010, ₤150

2020(f), ₤852030(f), ₤55

2040(f), ₤35 2050(f),₤25

2010, ₤90

2020(f), ₤602030(f), ₤44

2040(f), ₤32 2050(f), ₤25

2010, ₤112 2020(f), ₤63

2030(f), ₤41

2040(f), ₤26

2050(f), ₤19

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LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050

Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain

Maxwell Forecast (₤/MWh), Asia Supply Chain

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (₤/MWh), EU Supply Chain

Source: Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

GBP：USD 1.51551

GBP：TWD 49.4618146

GBP：EUR 1.42609391

Exchange Rate

19


LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050 in Asia, 8% Wind Farm Variation


2010, NT$7.419 2020(f), NT$4.204 2030(f), NT$2.720 2040(f), NT$1.731 2050(f), NT$1.237

2010, NT$4.452

2020(f), NT$2.9432030(f), NT$2.176 2040(f), NT$1.558 2050(f), NT$1.237

2010, NT$4.114

2020(f), NT$2.7202030(f), NT$2.011 2040(f), NT$1.440 2050(f), NT$1.143

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LCOE of Offshore Wind Power by 2050

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain

GBP：USD 1.51551

GBP：TWD 49.4618146

GBP：EUR 1.42609391

Exchange Rate

20


LCOE Gap between Offshore & Onshore Wind Power by 2050


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UK Offshore over US Onshore Asia Offshore&Supply Chain over US Onshore

Optimistic UK Offshore over US Onshore Optimistic Asia Offshore over US Onshore

Due to Wind Farm Variation (25% lower than

average)

100~150% by 2050

237~425% in 2015

21


Taiwan Case (Without Grid Cost)

• Average Electricity Selling Price of Taipower is NT$2.0533/KWh in 2005,

and NT$3.0705 in 2014. CAGR from 2005 to 2014 is 4.57%.

• If we assume 1% CAGR from 2015 to 2050, NT$4.3932/KWh in 2050.

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Year

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Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain

Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation

Cross Point：2017 to 2026

Source: Taipower, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

22


Taiwan Case (Considering Grid Cost)

• Grid Cost Assumption：NT$0.8/KWh (Current cost is NT$0.4811/KWh in 2015)

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Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), EU Supply Chain+Grid Cost

Maxwell Forecast (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost

Optimistic Wind Farm Variation (NT$/KWh), Asia Supply Chain+Grid Cost

Taipower Average Selling Price (NT$/KWh), 1% inflation


Cross Point：2023 to 2030

23


Unfortunately, Taiwan’s Feed-In Tariff Policy is Unbalanced

Item Category 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Onshore Wind 32.2 45.11 93.42 136.63 152.73

Solar PV 3.53 37.96 125.68 277.1 370.22

Total 35.73 83.07 219.1 413.73 522.95

Onshore Wind 3,323 10,868 23,511 31,335 37,875

Solar PV 151 650 9,259 18,625 40,472

Total 3,474 11,518 32,770 49,960 78,347

Onshore Wind 908 2,703 2,305 2,929 4,516

Solar PV 760 4,061 57,563 103,185 202,564

Total 1,668 6,764 59,868 106,114 207,080

Onshore Wind 0.273 0.249 0.098 0.093 0.119

Solar PV 5.033 6.248 6.217 5.540 5.005

Total 0.480 0.587 1.827 2.124 2.643

2010~2014 Taiwan Feed-In Tariff Analysis

Cumullative Capacity (MW)

Generation (10,000 KWh)

FIT (NT$10,000)

Average FIT in NT$/KWh

Source：MOEA BOE, Maxwell Venture Service LLC, 2015

24


Feed-In Tariff Policy in Germany Has Changed

25


There are More Rooms to Grow Non-Hydro Renewable Power in Taiwan

• Fuel Oil + Light Diesel Oil：NT$52,605,344,436 (21X), 13,332,200,000 KWh

(16X)2015 Taipower Cost Analysis (based on budget plan)

Generation Type Electricity (KWh) Cost (NT$)Unit Cost

(NT$/KWh)

Unit Cost,

including grid

cost (NT$/KWh)

Unit Cost, including

grid cost & operating

cost (NT$/KWh)

Fossil-Fuel： 129,295,200,000 300,806,502,000 2.3265 2.8076 3.0771

Coal 56,527,000,000 67,737,061,581 1.1983 1.6794 1.9489

Fuel oil 12,908,000,000 48,997,621,745 3.7959 4.2770 4.5465

Light diesel oil 424,200,000 3,607,722,691 8.5048 8.9858 9.2553

Gas 59,436,000,000 180,464,095,983 3.0363 3.5174 3.7869

Nuclear 35,418,000,000 31,051,803,000 0.8767 1.3578 1.6273

Hydro 3,649,000,000 7,473,631,000 2.0481 2.5292 2.7987

Renewable (Wind, Solar & Others) 825,000,000 2,536,748,000 3.0748 3.5559 3.8254

Pumped Hydro 3,025,000,000

Generation Cost 341,868,684,000 1.9852

Expense：

Transmission 172,212,200,000 35,929,135,000 0.2086

Distribution 172,212,200,000 46,918,948,000 0.2724

Grid Cost 82,848,083,000 0.4811

Other Operating Cost 172,212,200,000 305,802,000 0.0018

Marketing Expense 172,212,200,000 6,205,971,000 0.0360

Administration Expense 172,212,200,000 1,485,525,000 0.0086

R&D Expense 172,212,200,000 3,512,907,000 0.0204

Employee Traning Expense 172,212,200,000 642,341,000 0.0037

Non-operating Expense 172,212,200,000 34,258,495,000 0.1989

Operating Cost 46,411,041,000 0.2695

Grid+Operating Cost 129,259,124,000 0.7506

Total Cost 172,212,200,000 471,127,808,000 2.7357


http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/announcement/ann01.aspx?BType=6

26

http://www.taipower.com.tw/content/announcement/ann01.aspx?BType=6


Factors Driving Cost Reduction - Competitions

*Alstom was acquired by GE Renewable Energy in 2015.

**Asia players are not clear on the radar map, but Goldwind & Envision are competitive.

Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report, September 2015

Enercon, Suzlon ???

27


GE Renewable Energy’s Ambitions

• Anders Søe-Jensen, CEO of offshore wind power at GE Renewable Energy,

said GE has 2GW order backlog, the world’s 2nd largest order backlog behind

Siemens.

• Two months field test：99% availability & 80% capacity factor.

• GE acquired Enron Wind in 2002, and Alstom Power’s wind business in 2015.

• Turbine Capacity：The current offshore top range is 6 – 8.5MW, with a possible

ceiling at around 10MW. （Maxwell’s perdition：10MW turbine will be

series production in 2017 or 2018.）

• Backlog Project List (2,226MW)：Arcadis Ost 1 (348MW), Ø sterild

(6MW), Merkur offshore (396MW), Belwind (6MW), Fécamp (498MW),

Courseulles (450MW), Saint-Nazaire (480MW), Le Carnet (6MW), Block

Island (30MW), VOWTAP (12MW), Taiwan (6MW)

28


Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Technology Improvements

• Larger Turbine：8MW to 20+MW.

• Advanced Foundation (50 years)：Twisted Jacket, Active/Passive Floater.

• Availability：95% to 99% (with predictive maintenance O&M Strategy).

• IoT Technologies in wind turbine：500 sensors to 3,000 sensors, data collecting period

from 10 minutes to 40ms, GE’s industrial internet technologies and “Power Up”

technologies with up to 5% generation increase.

• IoT Technologies in wind farm：GE’s “Digital Wind Farm” technologies with 20+%

generation increase.

• Big Data-based wind forecast：day-ahead forecast error from 10% to 3% by IBM/The

Weather Company.

• Siemens’s new transport vehicles： cost savings of 15 to 20% current cost, or

US$0.1/KWh.

• Siemens’s new offshore grid solution：New connection solution can drive the price of

offshore wind power below US$0.1/KWh by 2020, Total cost decrease of 30%,

Transmission capacity increased by 33%, transmission losses decreased by 20%.

• Turbine design life time：from 20~25 years to 40~50 years, around 11% LCOE

reduction per 5 years.

• Other Technologies：Segmented Blades, Direct-Drive, Batteries, ….


29


Factors Driving Cost Reduction – Economies of Scale

• For a country (local supply chain)： 10GW cumulative installation capacity.

• For an offshore wind turbine manufacturer： 3.5GW/year (BVG Associate)

• For a model of offshore wind turbine：1,000 units.

• For a offshore wind farm：100 turbines.

Source：NREL, 2014-2015 Offshore Wind Technologies Market

Report, September 2015

30


Wind Farm CAPEX Forecast


Below US$2,000/KW is Onshore Wind CAPEX Area

31


Larger Turbine is Cost-Competitive


32


Supply Chain of Onshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Steel：CSC(中鋼) 2002.TT

• Resin：Swancor（上緯）4733.TT、Eternal Materials（長興材料）1717.TT

• Glass Fiber：TaiwanGlass（台玻）1802.TT

• Carbon Fiber：Formosa Plastics（台塑）1301.TT

• Fabric Reinforcement：Chrong Yi（重億）

• Casting：YeongGuan Group（永冠能源）1569.TT、Yuan Jun Fong Casting

（源潤豐）、TAIWAN CHENG SHENG METAL（台灣正昇金屬）

• Fasteners：Fang Sheng Screw(芳生)、BOLTUN（桓耀）8359.TT、Chunyu(春雨) 2012.TT

• Forging Steel：Nan Lung Steel(南隆鋼鐵)、San Eng Steel Forging (三英鋼鐵)

• Tower：China Steel Machinery(中鋼機械)

• Generator：TECO（東元電機）1504.TT

• Gearbox：Formosa Heavy Industries(台塑重工)

• Blade：Horizon(嘉鴻遊艇)/Atech

• Transformer：Fortune Electric(華城電機)1519.TT

33


Supply Chain of Onshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Converter：Delta Electronics(台達電) 2308.TT

• Control Unit： TECO（東元電機）1504.TT、IEI Integration Corp. 3022.TT

• Pitch/Yaw System：Taiwan Gong Ji Chang (台灣工機)

• Turbine： TECO（東元電機）1504.TT

• O＆M Service：ENERCON GmbH Taiwan Branch（德商風電能源技術服務）、Vestech Taiwan(喬集偉思特風力發電)

• Monitoring System：Advantech(研華) 2395.TT、MOXA(四零四)

34


Supply Chain of Offshore Wind Power in Taiwan

• Turbine：新能風電（JV of TECO & CSC）

• Steel：CSC(中鋼) 2002.TT

• Resin：Swancor（上緯）4733.TT

• Carbon Fiber：Formosa Plastics（台塑）1301.TT

• Casting：YeongGuan Group（永冠能源）1569.TT

• Fasteners：Fang Sheng Screw(芳生)、BOLTUN（桓耀）8359.TT、Chunyu(春雨) 2012.TT

• Forging Steel：Nan Lung Steel(南隆鋼鐵)、San Eng Steel Forging (三英鋼鐵)

• Tower：China Steel Machinery(中鋼機械)

• Generator：TECO（東元電機）1504.TT

• Transformer：Fortune Electric(華城電機)1519.TT

• Converter：Delta Electronics(台達電) 2308.TT、 TECO（東元電機）1504.TT

• Control Unit： TECO（東元電機）1504.TT

International cooperation with K2 Management for onshore/offshore wind farm’s

development support, construction & installation, asset management, and due diligence.

35



• Pitch/Yaw System：Taiwan Gong Ji Chang (台灣工機)

• Monitoring System/SCADA：Advantech(研華) 2395.TT、MOXA(四零四)、Allis Electric (亞力電機) 1514.TT

• Turbine Power Cable： SINBON Electronics（信邦電子）3023.TT

• Sealing：NAK Sealing Technologies(茂順) 9942.TT

• Capacitor：Lelon Electronics(立隆電子) 2472.TT

• Hydraulic Deceleration：C-JAC Industries/Technologies(超卓工業/西捷克科技)

• Subsea Cable：Walsin Lihwa（華新麗華）1605.TT、Hua Eng

Wire&Cable(華榮) 1608.TT、Ta Ya(大亞) 1609.TT

• Substation：Fortune Electric(華城電機)1519.TT

• GIS Switchgear：Allis Electric (亞力電機) 1514.TT

• Foundation：China Steel Structure (中鋼構) 2013.TT、Century Iron and

Steel Industrial(世紀鋼鐵結構) 9958.TT

• Power Project：Chung Hsin Electric & Machinery Mfg. (中興電工)

1513.TT、Tatung(大同電機) 2371.TT、SHIHLIN ELECTRIC(士林電機)

1503.TT36



• Ship Design：Ship and Ocean Industries R&D Center

• Ship Building：CSBC（台船） 2208.TT、Jong Shyn Shipbuilding （中信造船）、Ching Fu Ship Building(慶富造船)、LUNG TEH Shipbuilding（龍德造船）、Hung Hua Construction (宏華營造)

• Wind Farm Developer：Taipower Group(台電)、TGC(永傳)、 Swancor（上緯）4733.TT、InfraVest(英華威)、Dong Energy、EOLFI、CPC、 Ta Ya(大亞) 1609.TT、China Steel Corp. (中鋼) 2002.TT、金門協成兄弟/福建福能

• Engineering Consultants：Sinotech Consultants, Inc. Group (中興工程顧問社集團)、CECI Engineering Consultants（台灣世曦）

• Construction：Hung Hua Construction (宏華營造)、Hwa Chi Construction(樺棋營造)、China Steel Express(中鋼運通)、Woen Jinn Harbor Engineering

（穩晉港灣工程）、Chau Hsen (昭伸企業)、Taiwan Marine Heavy Industries

（台灣海洋重工）

• Crane：Giant Heavy Machinery Service (佳運重機)、Chi Deh Crane

Engineering (啟德機械起重工程)

Taiwan supply chain is getting ready to develop offshore wind power.

37


From Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer & Protector

• Onshore Resource Developer：Onshore Wind Power + Livestock +

Agriculture +Tourism

• Offshore Resource Developer：Offshore wind power + Fish Farming +

Wave Power + Tidal Power + Tourism

• It finds that large turbine arrays (300+ GW installed capacity) may

diminish(降低) peak near-surface hurricane wind speeds (最大近表面風速)

by 25–41 m/s (56–92 mph) and storm surge (暴風波浪) by 6–79%.

Source: Mark Z. Jacobson1, Cristina L. Archer, Willett Kempton, "Taming hurricanes with arrays of offshore wind turbines", NATURE

CLIMATE CHANGE | VOL 4 | MARCH 2014

38


Policy Ecosystem

• Green Power Market & Legislation：

Time-of-Use Power Price Market (時間電價)

Power Court (電力專業法院)

Power Arbitration Commission (電力仲裁委員會)

• Capital Market Related to Wind Power：

Wind Power Index (風電指數)

Wind ETF (風電ETF, not including Solar PV and others)

YieldCo (Energy REITs Concept)

Green Bond Market (Usually 70% CAPEX from debt financing)

National Green Fund (UK, Green Investment Bank)

PPA, Futures, Options of Power（電力的現貨、期貨與選擇權）

Other Financial Derivatives

Power Market is a Part of Financial Market

39


Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits

• 28GW offshore wind power in Taiwan

(Phase 1)：39 sites, including 3

demonstration projects, around 3,125 Km2.

• Multi-terminal HVDC Lite Submarine

Grid： (1) Stabilizing the power grid with a

network between Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen,

Matsu; (2) lowering the cost for island power

(NT$1+B loss per year); (3) Transferring

offshore wind power to North Taiwan to

replace land-based transmission line.

• Upgrading Super Smart Grid：

Expanding “Smart Station” capacity alone

the west coast.

New Land-based transmission line to Taipei

City and New Taipei City.

• Maxwell predicted 100+GW offshore wind

power in Taiwan. (published on Technews)

We need a solution for oversupply in winter.

40

http://technews.tw/author/maxwell/


Conclusion

• Global wind power in 2050 will be 4,315GW (offshore 1,481GW) , with a

CAGR of 11.66% (offshore 23.71%).

• LCOE of onshore wind power by 2050 will be US$24.23/MWh

(NT$0.79/KWh).

• LCOE of onshore wind power by 2050 will be ₤19-25/MWh (NT$1.143-

1.237/KWh).

• LCOE of offshore wind power plus grid cost may be under Taipower’s average

selling price by 2030.

• There are more rooms to grow non-hydro renewable power in Taiwan, at least

21X

• Competitions, technology improvements and economies of scale drive cost

reduction.

• Taiwan supply chain is getting ready to develop offshore wind power, targeting

28 to 100+GW.

• Wind Farm Developer to Resource Developer/Protector (lowering Typhoon

damages)

• Policy Ecosystem：power market is a part of financial market.

• Upgrading Submarine Grid of Taiwan Straits & Super Smart Grid 41


Acknowledgement

• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory：

Mark Bolinger

Ryan Wiser

Katie Kirbus

42


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