2015 tierra verde market analysis

IN ExclusIvE PARTNERsHIP WITH

2015 Tierra VerdeReal Estate Market Analysis

Dan Reichard, Realtor®[email protected]

Prepared and presented by

February 1, 2016

2016 © Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS of 26

Introduction

Broad data analyses of real estate markets are readily available from numerous sources. But in-depth data indicators of market movement on a local/neighborhood level is hard to come by unless you develop your own. This targetted analysis digs into the data for 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 specifically for Tierra verde to draw a clearer picture of where we were, where we are, and perhaps where we’re headed. To do so, it is important to include data from as far back as 2007 and 2008 to measure progress from the days prior to the historic real estate market collapse.

This summary attempts to make the data relevant to individual owners on Tierra verde by looking at sales activity divided

into six core real estate market segments on our island:

• off-water flats (condos), • on-water flats (condos), • off-water townhomes, • on-water townhomes, • off-water single family homes, and • on-water single family homes.

sales of vacant land are not included.

Although there are legal distinctions between “townhouse” and “condominium,” for the purpose of this analysis a townhouse is considered to be a multi-level residence located in a community that offers common elements for the exclusive enjoyment of residents in that community. “Flats” are single-


Overview

level condos in a community that offers common elements for the exclusive enjoyment of residents in that community. I’ve made this distinction because it is my experience that buyers pay more attention to layout and functionality of residential space than they do to legal definitions of the property style. Appraisers also will give more consideration to the physical layout of units than their legal organizational structure.

likewise, for the purposes of this analysis a condominium or townhouse is considered to be “on water” only if a broad view of the water can be seen from inside the residence. so, if a condominium or townhouse is located in a waterfront community but the water can not be seen from within the residence, it is categorized

as “off water.”

In 2015, 139 open market residential real estate sales occurred on Tierra verde – a 8% decrease from 2014 with a

$30,589,500 $31,470,325

$35,788,612

$43,378,850

$60,117,305

$65,762,162 $61,087,880

$73,911,190 $71,402,492

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

$60,000,000

$70,000,000

$80,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Transaction Dollar Volume

+38%

+21%


Overview

corresponding 3% decrease in total dollar volume to $71,402,492. (“Open market” residential real estate refers to properties that were offered for sale to the general public and not those that occurred in

“closed” transactions between family members, friends, etc.).

Of all market segements, only on-water and off-water single family homes managed to post increases in the number of units sold in 2015, although median

price per unit fell in both segments.

Conversely, on-water flats and on-water townhomes posted declines in the number of units sold and increases to median sales price for units in the segments. so, as

48 55

86 87

114

138 131

151

139

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde: Number of Transactions

+30%

+2%

Sales volume in dollars was 8% lower in 2015 than in 2014 but still more than 14% higher than in 2013


Overview

you review the data in this report, all data points for a given market segment must be taken into account in assessing its overall performance in 2015.

This analysis should not be used to

estimate market value of any specific property. Real estate is unique and differences in market values reflect that fact. Flats, townhomes and single

family homes are very different products from one another, each with its own benefits and drawbacks. Likewise, two different properties within a market will differ in their square footage, quality of upgrades, acreage, and other amenities like boat slips, garages, etc. In our unique community, water views (and quality of water view) and water frontage also are important elements in determining market value. However, it is not practical to parse the data in this analysis beyond the six categories described.

If you would like a detailed market value analysis for a specific property, please feel free to contact me at [email protected] or 727-771-3834.

As you review this report all data points for a given market segment must be taken into account in assessing its overall performance in 2015.


Methods

All data in this analysis was culled from the My Florida Regional Mls. Each transaction was evaluated to confirm accuracy in regard to location of the property and character of residential style (e.g. on-water, off-water, etc.). Corrections to the data were made as needed.

In the following data analysis the “median” is used as the metric to identify trends rather than “average” for greater reliability in what the numbers tell us. Our island contains such a diverse spectrum of residential properties — everything from multi-million dollar waterfront estates on Oceanview Drive to 1-bedroom off-water condominiums elsewhere on the island — the median sales price, for example, is much more meaningful than the average sales price.

The median tells us the precise mid-point of a range of numbers, i.e. there is an equal number of records that are higher than the median and an equal number of records that are lower than the median. That means if one or more multi-million dollar estates (single family homes) is sold in a given year, the median sales price does not skew upward in the same way the average sales price does. so, it is important to use median instead of average so we are not misled by what the data is telling us.

And finally, this report does not use data based on square footage because, some properties are conveyed with physical assets that others do not — e.g. boat slips, garages vs. carports, etc. — that are not captured by square footage data.


Off-water Flats(one-level condos)

Tyically the number of off-water condominiums that sells in a given year is too small to identify trends, although 2014 was an exception. Off-water condominiums as a whole represent perhaps the smallest segment of residential properties on the island, and 2015 saw a return to what may be normal levels of activity in this segment.

For the few properties that sold in this market segment, we saw a tightening of the list price to sales price diffential and a slight uptick in the medial sales price. However the median days on market for these few properties increased substantially to 149 days.

2014 © by Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS January 22, 2014

3 3

7

4

2

3

5

13

5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Number of Transactions




$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Median List vs. Sale Price

Median List Price Median Sale Price


88.89%

95.05%

93.81%

84.42%

86.86%

94.47%

93.01%

95.07% 94.40%

78.00%

80.00%

82.00%

84.00%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

92.00%

94.00%

96.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Percent of Sale Price vs. List Price




$603,900 $530,000

$1,138,000

$542,200

$330,000 $402,000

$778,000

$2,065,333

$865,400

$0

$500,000

$1,000,000

$1,500,000

$2,000,000

$2,500,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Transaction Dollar Volume


156

140

115

142.5 144.5

197

70 85

149

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Flats: Median Days on Market


On-water Flats(one-level condos)

On-water condominiums have the most diverse spectrum of characteristics of any real estate market segment in this report. For example, sold properties in this analysis ranged in square footage from 790 sq. ft. (1-bedroom, 1.5-bath) to 2,609 sq. ft. (3-bedroom, 3-bath). These factors weigh heavily when determining a specific property’s market value.

There were 31 sales of on-water condos in 2015 representing a 14% decrease from 2014. However, the total dollar volume and median price per unit both increased in 2015 (less than 1% and 12.5% increases respectively). The median number of days the properties were on the market also fell by 17% to 79 days.

Taken together these data indicate strong

performance for on-water flats despite the decrease in the number of units sold in 2015.


15 17

24

18

28

33

25

36

31

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Number of Transactions



2015 © by Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS February 1, 2016

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Median List vs. Sale Price



92.32% 87.97%

92.37%

77.22%

96.95% 100.03%

92.64% 94.54% 93.86%

0.00%

20.00%

40.00%

60.00%

80.00%

100.00%

120.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Percent of Sale Price vs. List Price




$9,198,000 $8,583,900

$7,299,597 $7,380,400

$11,754,800 $12,655,763

$8,914,200

$13,845,507 $13,939,250

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

$16,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Transaction Dollar Volume


192

110

149

182

121.5 119

54

95

79

0

50

100

150

200

250

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Flats: Median Days on Market


Off-water Townhomes

The year before last was a very strong year for off-water townhomes, so it may not be a huge surprise that 2015 yielded somewhat of a rebalancing of the market for this segment. The number of units sold, total dollar volume and median sales price all declined year over year, and the median days on market increased 59% to 115 days. However, the decline in median sales price was fairly modest at just under 4%. This level of performance for off-water townhomes may be explained in part by a slight increase in the number of distressed sales (5 forclosures and 1 short sale) in 2015.

still, in terms of median price per unit and aside from 2014, sales performance for this segement in 2015 was substantially better than any other years since 2007. so, in

short, it is fair to view 2015 as evidence of a stable market for off-water townhomes.2014 © by Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS January 22, 2014

7 8

18

11

18

26

29

26

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Number of Transactions


Off-water Townhomes


$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Median List vs. Sale Price



105%

92% 90% 90%

97% 96% 97% 96%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: List vs. Sale Price Percentage


Off-water Townhomes


$2,199,900 $1,868,000

$3,550,100

$2,347,300

$3,520,105

$5,358,999

$5,918,800

$6,850,050

$5,545,317

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

$6,000,000

$7,000,000

$8,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Transaction Dollar Volume


32

58.5 64.5

140

114

64.5 69 72.5

115

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Townhomes: Median Days on Market


On-water Townhomes

Total on-water townhomes sold in 2015 remained fairly constant with just two fewer sold than the year before. Total dollar volume for the segment decreased by a little more than 6%, but the median sales price increased by about 5%. Also, the list price/sold price differential tightened up to a difference of about 5.1%, and the median days on market plunged by 43% to just 62.5 days. This is the fifth year in a row that the on-water townhome market segment has shown steady improvement in median sold price and posted its best year since 2008.

As I stated last year, “steady” is a desireable characteristic of any real estate market.


6

9

7

9

7

27

21

28

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Number of Transactions


On-water Townhomes


$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Median List vs. Sale Price



91.53% 91.31%

92.49%

95.24% 95.38%

98.75%

96.00%

94.19% 94.90%

86.00%

88.00%

90.00%

92.00%

94.00%

96.00%

98.00%

100.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: List vs. Sale Price Differential


On-water Townhomes


$3,179,750 $3,692,500

$1,768,405

$3,446,000

$2,300,000

$8,599,900 $9,048,530

$11,296,150 $10,591,325

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Transaction Dollar Volume


136

87

139

105 100

89

129

110.5

62.5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Townhomes: Median Days on Market


Off-water Single Family

There is no way to sugar-coat it: a “steady” market for off-water single family homes in 2013 was replaced with robust increases in 2014. But in 2015 this segment saw lackluster performance with a 66% increase in the number of days on market, and a 7% decline in the median sales price.

Part of this shift may be related to an increase in the number of foreclosed properties sold in this market segment.

One bright spot in the future for off-water single family homes may be three new building projects that broke ground in 2015 on 3,000+ sq. ft. homes, although by the end of the calendar year none of them had been completed. Those sales prices are expected to be in the upper $700s to

low $800,000 which could begin a shift for back in the other direction.


10 9

17

24

29

25

28 26

28

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Number of Transactions




$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Median List vs. Sale Price



95.10% 95.37%

90.45%

95.50%

89.25%

92.94%

94.61%

95.33% 94.96%

86.00%

87.00%

88.00%

89.00%

90.00%

91.00%

92.00%

93.00%

94.00%

95.00%

96.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: List vs. Sale Price Differential




$5,620,000

$4,607,100

$6,091,400

$9,158,700

$10,497,400 $10,353,100

$12,838,600 $12,865,650

$13,887,800

$0

$2,000,000

$4,000,000

$6,000,000

$8,000,000

$10,000,000

$12,000,000

$14,000,000

$16,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Transaction Dollar Volume


167

60

104

70.5

132

102 103

63

105

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde Off-water Single Family Homes: Median Days on Market


On-water Single Family

Despite a decline in the number of transactions for on-water single family homes of just over 4% (the equivalent of one transaction), the median sales price increased by just over 3% and total dollar volume increased by more than 14%. This is due in part to sellers receiving 92.43% of their list price, up from 90.62% in 2013.

The historical median days on market is quite variable for on-water homes which you might expect for properties typically in the upper price points. And 2014 was no different with median days on market again increasing to 158 days. since 2007, overall market performance in this segment reached its peak in 2011 and 2012, but 2014 performance is a welcome turn-around from 2013. Where this market segment is headed in 2015 likely will be

determined by factors outside of Tierra verde, e.g. stock market performance, etc.2016 © by Dan Reichard Data Source: My Florida Regional MLS February 1, 2016

7 7

13

21

27 28

23 22

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Numbers of Transactions




$0

$200,000

$400,000

$600,000

$800,000

$1,000,000

$1,200,000

$1,400,000

$1,600,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Median List vs. Sale Price



85.06% 85.90%

83.40%

90.50%

97.37%

92.26%

90.62%

92.43% 92.45%

75.00%

80.00%

85.00%

90.00%

95.00%

100.00%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: List vs. Sales Price Differential




$9,787,950 $11,485,825

$15,941,110

$20,504,250

$30,738,000 $30,286,400

$23,589,750

$26,988,500 $26,573,400

$0

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

$30,000,000

$35,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Transaction Dollar Volume


120

102

178

119

174

105

144

158 146

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tierra Verde On-water Single Family Homes: Median Days on Market


Conclusions

It is worth repeating that this analysis should not be used to estimate market value for any specific property. Properties within market segments will differ from one another in ways that greatly impact market value. All real estate is unique. A comparative market analysis should be prepared by a Realtor® to estimate market value for a specific property.

While real estate values always are subject to unforeseen forces in the economy, government policy, etc., this look at the 2015 real estate market in Tierra verde makes clear when unimpeded by governmental uncertaintly (e.g. federal

government shutdown and flood insurance policy), our local real estate market continues to improve.

It is evident that among our six residential real estate market segments in 2015, in terms of volume of transactions all segments performed far better than during the market crash. The continued steady

improvement of performance across market segments is perhaps the most important conclusion to be drawn from this report — a rising tide lifts all boats.

Buyers continue to enjoy very low interest rates and, as I wrote in last year’s report,

Buyers continue to enjoy very low interest rates and inventory of residential properties for sale is low.

1100 4th Street NorthSuite 200

St. Petersburg, FL 33701

Robert P. Glaser, Broker


Conclusions

it may be only the best qualified buyers who have access to available low interest rates. Buyers are well advised to obtain pre-qualification for a mortgage before entering the market place.

sellers are encouraged to require pre-qualification documentation before reviewing a purchase offer. And even though the 2013 uncertainty about flood insurance policy has largely been resolved, it is recommended that Tierra verde sellers obtain a flood elevation certificate to document the elevation of their living space relative to the base flood elevation (BFE). As a seller, having an elevation certificate will help avoid surpises to a potential buyer that can derail a closing.

Thank you for reviewing this analysis of 2015 real estate market in Tierra verde. If you have any questions or need further assistance preparing to sell or buy a home, please contact:

Dan Reichard, Realtor®727-771-3834

[email protected]

2015 tierra verde market analysis

Documents