2015 spring meeting prospect appraisal: learning from past
TRANSCRIPT
2015 Spring Meeting
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
ESG/P – U. Möller
February 2015
Prospect Appraisal:
Learning from past performance
Risk Coordinator Workshop, Denver, June 2015
U. Möller, Wintershall Holding GmbH
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Agenda
2
Introduction
2000 - 2006 Exploration Performance
Exploration Performance Study
2007 - 2009 Exploration Performance
2010 - 2014 Exploration Performance
Prospect Appraisal Team
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Risk and Uncertainty
Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurdVoltaire (1694 - 1778)
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Executive Summary
Prospect Appraisal Team (PAT) as part of subsurface
governance responsible for implementing and
safeguarding prospect evaluation standards
Volume and Risk Analysis performed according to
industry standards / Best Practice
Guidelines and Standards ensure consistent,
comparable, standardized evaluations
Look-back analysis shows post-drill performance in
agreement with pre-drill predictions
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
5
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Who we are
Core Team (4):
G&G (4) Reservoir Engineering (4) Petrophysics (4) Specialists (4)
Prospect Appraisal Team - PAT
3 G&G Staff
1 Tech. Assistant
Virtual Team (16)
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
-150
-125
-100
-75
-50
-25
00
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Predicted versus Actual Volumes
Pre
-Dri
ll r
iske
dvs.
Dis
co
vere
d (
%)
3 year rolling Average
6
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2000 – 2006 Volume Prediction
Internal Exploration
Performance Study:
‚Subsurface evaluation
consistently overpredicts
volumes‘
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
Ov
erp
red
icti
on
Un
derp
red
icti
on
7
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2000 – 2006 Technical Success Rate
Number of Wells and Success Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
2014
Number of wells
0
10
20
30
40
5060
70
80
90
100
% Success
Exploration Wells Success Rate
Internal Exploration
Performance Study:
‚Exploration- and
Appraisal technical
success rate
acceptable‘
GP
OS
Nu
mb
er
of
Wells
Number of Wells and Success Rate
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2007 – Exploration Performance Study
Internal Study Results …
Exploration- and Appraisal technical success rate acceptable
Subsurface evaluation consistently overpredicts volumes
…
Recommendations …
Establish technical workflows to improve volumetric prediction
Implementation of new tools
Exploration Organization
Corporate exploration strategy to enable balanced portfolio
Central portfolio management to improve exploration efficiency
Interaction with Approval Process
…
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Workflows
Training Rose & Associates Training course ‚Quantification
of Geological Risk for Prospect and Play Analysis‘
PAT Guidelines Systematic documentation
Formal framework for pre- and post-drill analysis
Yearly updates to incorporate learnings from the past
PAT Review Day To discuss last years results, identify areas of
improvement, share learnings and agee on
way forward
Performance Tracking started in 2008 Carried out yearly by PAT Group
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Tools REP Input Tool
Allows for creation of unbiased input for REP
REP (Reserves Evaluation Program by Logicom EP)
State-of-the-art commercial software tool for evaluation
of risks and uncertainties in leads and prospects
RAPT (Risk Analysis Portfolio Tracker by 3esi)
Performance tracking to identify systematic bias in
exploration
Provides standardized result summaries based on pre-
versus post-drill data
Workflows and Tools aim towards a
consistent, comparable, standardized evaluation
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2007 – 2009 Performance
Technical success rate
remains stable
First effects of measures
can be seen in 2009 after
implementation of PAT
Guidelines (2007) and
Performance Tracking
(2008).
Number of Wells and Success Rate
Predicted versus Actual Volumes
Nu
mb
er
of
We
lls
Pre
-Dri
ll R
isk
ed
vs
. D
isc
ove
red
(%
)
Exploration Wells Success Rate
GP
OS
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
Ov
erp
red
icti
on
Un
derp
red
icti
on
12
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2010 - 2014
Independent Review of PAT Performance by
External Consultant from 06/2014 to 04/2015
Performed look-back analysis 2010 to 2013
‚Risk and volume evaluations have been carried out competently
according to industry standards since 2010‘
Support PAT Team in update of PAT Guidelines
Support in GeoX Implementation
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
0,00
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1000,00
1200,00
0,00 200,00 400,00 600,00 800,00 1000,00 1200,00Sum of Pre-drill Volumes - Risked Mean (100%) Tech.Success (MMBOE) (per prospect)
Su
m o
f P
ost-
dri
ll V
olu
mes (
per
pro
sp
ect)
Me
an
(1
00
%)
Te
ch.S
uccess (
MM
BO
E)
13
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2010 – 2014 Volume Prediction
Independent Review of PAT Performance by
External Consultant from 06/2014 to 03/2015 Performed look-back analysis 2010 to 2013
‚Risk and volume evaluations have been carried
out competently according to industry standards
since 2010‘
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
Overp
red
icti
on
Un
de
rpre
dic
tio
n
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
14
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2010 – 2014 Risk Evaluation
Number of Wells and Success Rate
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
2014
Number of wells
0
1020
30
40
5060
70
8090
100
% Success
Exploration Wells Success Rate
Sum of Pre-drill Chances (per Segment)
Su
m o
f P
ost-
dri
ll C
han
ces p
er
Se
gm
ent
Independent Review of PAT Performance by
External Consultant from 06/2014 to 03/2015 Performed look-back analysis 2010 to 2013
‚Risk and volume evaluations have been carried
out competently according to industry standards
since 2010‘
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
15
Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Multi Parameter Charts
2007-2009 2012-2014
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
2012-2014 Performance Tracking
Volumes
GRV Sw
Good performance overall and in individual
parameter prediction
GPOS prediction in line with pre-drill
expectations
Risk profiles / Failure reason prediction good
Pre-drill
Po
st-
dri
llN
um
be
ro
fW
ell
s
Pre-drill Pre-drill
Po
st-
dri
ll
Po
st-
dri
llRisk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
PAT Group – Tasks and Targets
Perform Pre-PAT / PAT / Post-PAT sessions
as requested
Inform, align and communicate with
Portfolio Group, Project Approval Group,
Skill Networks and Appraisal Support Team
Keep PAT Guidelines up-to-date
Perform Look-back analysis
Governance to safeguard Prospect
Appraisal
Portfolio
Group
Prospect
Appraisal
Team
Project
Approval
Group
Appraisal
Support
Team
Skill
Networks
Po
st-
dri
ll
Pre-drill
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
PAT Group – Initiatives
Time-Depth Conversion Initiated by PAT Team assessing past TDC performance.
Increased training efforts and TDC best practice document.
Play Based Exploration Supported by PAT team to enable sustainability and growth
of the Wintershall exploration portfolio by selecting the most
prospective areas (sweet spots) for future exploration
activities
Provide Play Assists to technically support and review play
map generation and Yet-to-Find analysis
DHI supported Prospects Study performed by Geophysics Skill Network
Results incorporated in PAT Guidelines
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Challenges ahead
Maintain high predictability in terms of
volume and risk prediction
GeoX as a new evaluation tool Part of and actively supporting the GeoX
implementation team
Introduction of new software
Embed Play Based Exploration into
the Wintershall exploration process
GeoX 6.2
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
Summary
PAT is
A governance tool to safeguard prospect appraisal
An enabler for exploration success
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015
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Prospect Appraisal: Learning from past performance
END
Risk Coordinator Workshop – Denver, June 2015