2015 semi market trends forum-05-semi equipment and materials outlook-semi-20150903

8/20/2019 2015 SEMI Market Trends Forum-05-SEMI Equipment and Materials Outlook-SEMI-20150903

1/26

SEMI Equipment and Materials Market Update

Dan Tracy, Sr. Director

SEMI Industry Research & Statistics

September 3, 2015


2/26

Outline

• 2015 Year-to-Date Trends

• Equipment and Materials Forecasts

• Summary


3/26

Year-to-Date Trends


4/26

Interesting Year to Date…

• Growing uncertainty in the global economic condition – Weak 1Q for US economy; Europe (Greek crisis); Japan 2Q

GDP contraction; China stock market…global stock markets

• Semiconductor revenue forecasts lowered

– Generally, from mid-single digit to low-single digit

– PC market down, tablet market growth slowing, currency

effects…

• Some companies reduced capex for 2015

• Declining DRAM pricing

Yet…


5/26

Unit Trends-

Strong Year-over-Year growth for 1H

Source: SEMI and WSTS


6/26

Silicon Area Shipment Index

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

A p r - 1 5

J u l - 1 5

I n d e x V a l u e

Worldwide Wafer Area Shipment Index(Three-month Moving Average)

Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group August 2015

Silicon shipmentsare up 7% year to

date through July


7/26

SEMI North America Book-to-Bill-

Steady booking and billings trends thru July

Source: SEMI August 2015


8/26

Global Semiconductor Equipment Spending

Source: SEMI/SEAJ

2015 Worldwide Semiconductor Equipment Billings

(U.S. Dollars in Millions)

Region 2015 Year-to-

Date (July)

2014 Year-to-

Date (July) Y/Y % Change

Europe $1,318 $1,337 -1%

Japan $3,118 $2,286 36%

North America $3,474 $4,915 -29%

Korea $5,414 $4,065 33%

Taiwan $5,340 $5,841 -9%

China $2,613 $3,039 -14%

ROW $1,138 $1,120 2%Total $22,415 $22,603 -1%

Year-to-date bookings are flat


9/26

Impact of Exchange Rates on the Market

Source: SEMI and SEAJ

2013 2014Y/Y %

Change

SEAJ Billings (¥ B) 972 1,332 37%

SEAJ Billings (US $M) 9,993 12,012 26%

Conversion Rates: 2013=~98¥/US$, 2014=~106¥/US$

From SEAJ Book-to-Bill Report:

2013 2014

Wafer Shipments (MSI) 9,067 10,098

% Year-over-Year Change 11%

Wafer Revenues ($ M) 7,538 7,626


Source: SEMI Silicon Manufacturers Group

2013 2014

Leadframe Shipments (M) 339,133 370,617

% Year-over-Year Change9%

Leadframe ($ M) 3,342 3,461


Source: SEMI/NEDIA


10/26

Impact Exchange Rates on the Market

Source: SEMI and SEAJ

~$900M higher ∆ through

June assuming avg. 2014

exchange rate

2014=~106¥/US$

2015=~120¥/US$


11/26

Equipment and Materials Forecasts


12/26

66%

14%

-7%5%

-9%

28%40%

66%

10%5%

-21%

17%

87%

-41%-30%

12%

67%

-11%

23%6%

-31%-46%

150%

9%

-15% -14%

18%3%

5%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

1 9 8 7

1 9 8 8

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 2

1 9 9 3

1 9 9 4

1 9 9 5

1 9 9 6

1 9 9 7

1 9 9 8

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

2 0 1 4

2 0 1 5 F

2 0 1 6 F

A n n u a l G

r o w t h

( %

)

C a p i t a l E q u i p m e n t

( $ U S B i l l i o n )

Capital Equipment Annual Growth

Capital Equipment Cycles

Source: SEMI/SEAJ. SEMI 2015 Mid-Year Forecast, August update


13/26

Regional Semiconductor

Equipment Markets

China

12% Europe

6%

Japan11%

Korea

18%

North

America

22%

ROW

6%

Taiwan

25%

2014 = $37.50 billion

Region 2014$US B

2015F$US B

%Change

China $4.37 $4.56 4%

Europe 2.38 2.50 5%

Japan 4.18 5.29 27%

Korea 6.84 8.13 19%

North America 8.16 6.26 -23%

SEA/ROW 2.15 2.14 -1%

Taiwan 9.41 9.56 2%

Total $37.50 $38.44 3%

Source: SEMI/SEAJ August 2015 update

Totals may not add due to rounding


14/26

Fab Equipment Spending-

Driven by Memory and Foundry


15/26

Foundries-

Ramping 200mm capacity in 2015 and 2016

1.95

2.00

2.05

2.10

2.15

2.20

2.252.30

2.35

2.40

2.45

2.50

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015F 2016F

I n s t a l l e d C a p a c i t y ( M i l l i o n s w p m )

Installed 200mm Foundry Capacity

Source: SEMI World Fab Forecast


16/26

Worldwide Wafer Fab Materials Forecast

Totals may not add due to roundingSource: SEMI August 2015

Actual Forecast

2013US$ M 2014US$ M 2015US$ M 2016US$ M

Silicon Wafers1 $7,932 $7,990 $7,954 $8,278

Photomasks2 3,136 3,220 3,342 3,442

Photoresist 1,220 1,374 1,354 1,413

Photoresist Ancillaries3 1,428 1,711 1,777 1,850

Wet Chemicals4 995 1,059 1,121 1,104

Gases 3,319 3,481 3,577 3,721

Sputter Targets4 598 629 653 696

CMP Slurry & Pads5 1,436 1,569 1,618 1,722

Other/New Materials 2,588 2,945 3,178 3,415Total $22,652 $23,977 $24,574 $25,641

% Growth 6% 2% 4%


17/26

Wafer Fab Materials Forecast Notes

1. Silicon wafers include merchant sales value only; includes SOI wafers; noreclaim wafers

2. Includes captive market

3. Includes resist removal chemicals, developers, anti-reflective coatings,

contrast enhancers, edge bead removers, adhesion promoters, etc.

4. Source is Linx Consulting LLC, Sputter Targets includes precious metals

5. Estimates for IC applications only

6. Includes low k dielectrics, copper plating solutions, dielectric precursors,

organometallic precursors, etc.

7. All forecasts in current dollars

8. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated


18/26

Photomask Market

15/05: Photomask CAGR 1%, Semiconductor CAGR of 4% for the same period

Source: SEMI March 2015

$0$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

2005 2007 2010 2015F 2016F

U S $ M i l l i o n

Taiwan ROW North America Korea Japan Europe China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2015F

P e r c e n t o f M a r k e t

Merchant Captive

Source: SEMI March 2015


19/26

Regional Fab Materials Markets

Region 2015F$US B

2016F$US B

%Change

China $1.77 $1.89 6%

Europe 2.49 2.57 3%

Japan 4.39 4.50 2%

Korea 4.65 4.95 6%

North America 4.46 4.59 3%

Taiwan 5.47 5.73 5%

SEA/ROW 1.34 1.42 7%

Total $24.57 $25.64 4%




20/26

Worldwide Packaging Materials Forecast

Totals may not add due to roundingSource: SEMI August 2015

Actual Forecast

2013US$ M

2014US$ M

2015US$ M

2016US$ M

Leadframes $3,342 $3,461 $3,350 $3,346

Organic Substrates1 7,408 7,612 8,196 8,586

Ceramic Packages 2,006 2,075 2,157 2,174

Encapsulation Resins 2,451 2,712 2,922 3,187Bonding Wire2 4,151 3,385 3,176 3,099

Die Attach Materials3 666 704 734 752

Others 374 409 451 500

Total $20,398 $20,358 $20,986 $21,644

% Growth -0.2% 3% 3%

Packaging Materials will be 46% of the 2015 Total Semiconductor Materials Market

Major update com ing in November


21/26

Semiconductor Packaging

Materials Forecast Notes

1. Source is TechSearch International. Includes PBGA, PPGA,LGA, and CSP laminate substrates and flex BGA and CSP

substrates

2. Assume gold value of $1,480/trz for 2013; $1,260/trz for

2014; $1,190/trz for 2015 - 20163. Includes die attach film (tape) materials

4. Other includes solder balls and wafer level package

dielectrics

5. Source for all data is SEMI, unless otherwise indicated6. All forecasts in current dollars


22/26

Packaging Material Market Trends

• CSP laminate substrates, CSP leadframes, and WLP are driven by explosive

growth in mobile computing and communications

• Flip chip and copper pillar continue to expand the market for underfill

materials.

• Need more development for WLP dielectrics used in multi-layer structures

• Mold compounds- warpage control/package reliability (MSL1); withstand

high flexing for wearable applications

• QFN- cost optimization through design (including strip size) and reduced

plating area (also improves MSL); higher lead counts (routable); improvedpower dissipation

• Transition from gold wire to copper and silver

Source: SEMI and TechSearch International- Global Semiconductor Packaging Materials Outlook


23/26

Regional Packaging Materials Markets

China

21%

Europe

3%

Japan

13%

Korea

13%

North

America

3%

SEA/ROW

26%

Taiwan

21%

2015F = $21.0 billion

Region 2015F$US B

2016F$US B

%Change

China $4.34 $4.54 5%

Europe 0.72 0.75 3%

Japan 2.69 2.82 4%

Korea 2.66 2.72 2%

North America 0.66 0.66 0%

Taiwan 4.43 4.56 3%

SEA/ROW 5.50 5.60 2%

Total $20.99 $21.64 3%




24/26

Summary


25/26

Summary

• Uncertainty with the near-term outlook

• Year-to-Date Trends Silicon shipments are up through July

Equipment bookings and billings are comparable to 2014 levels

Exchange rates—weaker Yen & Euro—will dampen 2015 revenue

growth

• Memory (Flash) and Foundry will lead fab investment this year

and next

• Semiconductor Equipment & Materials Outlook Materials market is expected to increase 3% in 2015 and 4% in 2016

Equipment market is expected to increase 3% in 2015 and 5% in 2016


26/26

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2015 semi market trends forum-05-semi equipment and materials outlook-semi-20150903

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