2015: issue 459, week: 26th - 29th january 2015 …...happy republic day 26 january 2015 th wise m...
TRANSCRIPT
HAPPY REPUBLIC DAY TH
26 JANUARY 2015
WISE M NEY2015: Issue 459, Week: 26th - 29th January 2015
A Weekly Update from SMC(For private circulation only)
Bra
nd
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Contents
Equity 4-7
Derivatives 8-9
Commodity 10-13
Currency 14
IPO 15
Fixed Deposit 16
Mutual Fund 18
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lobal stock markets cheered the European Central Bank (ECB) decision to expand
its unconventional monetary measures. In the monetary policy meeting ECB Gdecided to do monthly bond purchases worth 60 billion Euro a month starting
March 2015 up till September 2016, totaling upto 1.08 trillion Euros over eighteen months
period. The decision may help Europe to deal with concerns pertaining to deflation. In the
US, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week
from a seven-month high, indicating continued improvement in labour market conditions
Weakness in Chinese economy may lead to more measures by authorities to boost economy.
The HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index survey showed China's
manufacturing growth stalled for the second straight month in January and companies had
to cut prices at a faster clip to win new business, adding to worries about growing
deflationary pressures in the economy. In fact Chinese Premier Li Keqiang told global
leaders in Davos that the country would hard landing and at the same time would also
ensure long term fast growth.
Back at home, the government is trying hard to push through disinvestments of public
sector companies that may include Indian Oil Corporation, National Aluminium Company,
BHEL, NMDC, etc. India's fiscal deficit has already reached to the 99% of the full year target
in the first eight of the fiscal year and by selling shares government is targeting to garner
close to $ 3 billion to bridge the gap. In the days to come, markets are likely to remain
volatile, but are expected to continue their uptrend as the overall breadth of the market is
positive. To note, investment trend of foreign players, movement of the rupee against the
dollar and crude oil price would dictate the trend on the market.
On the commodities front, selling pressure persisted in commodities counter on strong
dollar index and strong equity market. Both Brent and sweet crude traded below the $50
level on the fundamental weakness. However, oil recovered to some extent after the news
of death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in OPEC. The passing of King
Abdullah is going to increase uncertainty and increase volatility in oil prices in the near
term. Gold is expected to trade on a sideways path on mixed fundamentals. Gold may move
in the range of 27300-28500 while Silver in the range of 38000-41500. Some of the major
events are Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence of US, GDP of UK, FOMC rate
decision, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision, German Unemployment Change,
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate, CPI of Japan, Australia and EU, GDP of Canada and US etc.
From The Desk Of Editor
(Saurabh Jain)
SMC Global Securities Limited is proposing, subject to receipt of requisite approvals, market conditions and other considerations, a further public offering of its equity shares and has filed the Draft Red Herring Prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (“SEBI”) and the Stock Exchanges. The Draft Red Herring Prospectus is available on the website of SEBI at www.sebi.gov.in and on the websites of the Book Running Lead Manager i.e., ICICI Securities Limited at www.icicisecurities.com and the Co- Book Running Lead Manager i.e., Elara Capital (India) Private Limited at www.elaracapital.com . Investors should note that investment in equity shares involves a high degree of risk and for details relating to the same, please see the section titled “Risk Factors” of the aforementioned offer document.
SMC Global Securities Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMC”) is a registered Member of National Stock Exchange of India Limited, Bombay Stock Exchange Limited and its associate is member of MCX stock Exchange Limited. It is also registered as a Depository Participant with CDSL and NSDL. Its associates merchant banker and Portfolio Manager are registered with SEBI and NBFC registered with RBI. It also has registration with AMFI as a Mutual Fund Distributor.
SMC is in the process of making an application with SEBI for registering as a Research Entity in terms of SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014. SMC or its associates has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing /dealing in securities Market.
SMC or its associates including its relatives/analyst do not hold any financial interest/beneficial ownership of more than 1% in the company covered by Analyst. SMC or its associates and relatives does not have any material conflict of interest. SMC or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation from the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. The subject company has not been a client of SMC during the past twelve months. SMC or its associates has not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by analyst or third party in connection with the research report. The Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of company covered by Analyst and SMC has not been engaged in market making activity of the company covered by Analyst.
The views expressed are based solely on information available publicly available/internal data/ other reliable sources believed to be true.
SMC does not represent/ provide any warranty express or implied to the accuracy, contents or views expressed herein and investors are advised to independently evaluate the market conditions/risks involved before making any investment decision.
NEWS
DOMESTIC NEWSEconomy•The Indian Cabinet gave an approval for swapping arrangement of
spectrum between telecom and defence ministries, which will vacate 15 MHz of spectrum in 2100 Mhz in the next one year.
•India's leading index fell 0.9 percent in December, in contrast to a 1.7 percent increase in November. Out of the eight components, only two contributed positively to the index.
Automobile•Bajaj Auto is aiming to regain its lost share in the Indian two-wheeler
market with six product launches in the next six months that will include a new 100 cc bike besides a 400 cc model under its flagship brand Pulsar.
Fertilizers•Gujarat State Fertilizer & Chemicals Limited (GSFC) decided to expand its
Nylon-6 capacity with additional production of 15,000 metric tonne per annum (MTPA) to meet the growing demand for plastics in the country. In addition, GSFC is planning to set up a new melamine plant having manufacturing capacity of 40,000 MTPA. The company already has a 15,000-MTPA melamine.
Pharmaceuticals•Strides Arcolab Limited has entered into a licensing agreement with
Gilead Sciences, Inc for marketing HIV drugs. Under the agreement, Gilead has extended non-exclusive rights to Strides to manufacture and distribute Tenofovir Alafenamide (TAF) - used for treatment of AIDS.
•Suven Life Sciences has received one product patent from Australia, two product patents from Japan and one product patent from Hong Kong. The patents correspond to a new chemical entity (NCE) for treatment of disorders associated with neurodegenerative diseases. These patents are valid through 2030.
FMCG•Emami Ltd has made its third acquisition in six months by buying a
controlling stake (66.67%) in Fravin Pty Ltd, an Australian organic personal care products maker.
Information Technology•Moser Baer has commenced operations of its upgraded solar cell
manufacturing line. The company said that its revival plan of cell & module manufacturing comes in wake of government's programs focused on domestic content requirement (DCR) of solar cells & modules for solar farms.
•Mindtree has entered into definitive agreements to acquire US-based Discoverture Solutions LLC (Discoverture), a provider of insurance solutions. Financial details of the transaction were not disclosed.
Realty/ Construction•A joint venture comprising Hyderabad-based Ramky Infrastructure
Limited, an integrated infrastructure development and management company, and Barbrik Project Limited has bagged orders aggregating `209.89 crore from the ministry of road transport and highways, New Delhi.
Diamond, Gems and Jewellery•Rajesh Exports Ltd (REL) has bagged an export order worth `1,780 crore
for supply of designer range of gold and diamond studded jewellery and medallions from UAE-based Jamcelat Jewellery.
Oil and Gas•Reliance Industries (RIL) will commission all of its 1400 fuel retail outlets
in a year's time and plans to replicate the success of 2006 in the fuel retail segment by mopping up a market share of 14.3 per cent in high speed diesel and 7.2 per cent in petrol.
Metal and Mining •NMDC Ltd will spend ̀ 10,000 crore on setting up slurry pipelines and pellet
plants, among other works, for its upcoming steel plant in Chhattisgarh.•Nalco has devised a plan to double its wind power generation capacity to
200 MW with an investment of ̀ 700 crore.
INTERNATIONAL NEWS•The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its World Economic Outlook Update,
the Washington-based lender said the global economy is set to grow 3.5 percent this year, down from the 3.8 percent expansion projected in October. The growth in 2016 is projected to be 3.7 percent instead of 4 percent.
•US initial jobless claims fell to 307,000, a decrease of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 317,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to slide to 300,000 from the 316,000 originally reported for the previous week.
•US housing starts jumped 4.4 percent to an annual rate of 1.089 million in December from the revised November estimate of 1.043 million. Economists had expected housing starts to climb 1.3 percent to 1.041 million in December from the 1.028 million originally reported for the previous month.
•US preliminary reading on the consumer sentiment index for January came in at 98.2 compared to the final December reading of 93.6. Economists had expected the index to climb to a reading of 94.1. With the much bigger than expected increase, the consumer sentiment index reached its highest level since January of 2004.
•The European Central Bank (ECB) announced higher-than-expected monthly bond buying programme of 60 billion euros, totalling 1.1 trillion euros that will go on till September 2016. It, however, kept benchmark interest rate unchanged. Announcing the extent of Quantitative Easing, ECB chief Mario Draghi also said the central bank will work towards the objective of bringing inflation closer to 2 percent.
MEETING DATE COMPANY PURPOSE27-JAN-15 TITAN COMPANY RESULTS27-JAN-15 MARUTI SUZUKI INDIA RESULTS27-JAN-15 IDEA CELLULAR RESULTS27-JAN-15 THE KARNATAKA BANK RESULTS27-JAN-15 GODREJ PROPERTIES RESULTS27-JAN-15 GHCL RESULTS28-JAN-15 PIDILITE INDUSTRIES RESULTS28-JAN-15 RANBAXY LABORATORIES RESULTS28-JAN-15 ADANI POWER RESULTS28-JAN-15 ADANI PORTS AND SPECIAL
ECONOMIC ZONE RESULTS29-JAN-15 SESA STERLITE RESULTS29-JAN-15 ORIENTAL BANK
OF COMMERCE RESULTS29-JAN-15 IDFC RESULTS29-JAN-15 KARUR VYSYA BANK RESULTS29-JAN-15 ICRA RESULTS/OTHERS29-JAN-15 HOUSING DEVELOPMENT
FINANCE CORPORATION RESULTS29-JAN-15 DR. REDDY'S LABORATORIES RESULTS29-JAN-15 ASIAN PAINTS RESULTS29-JAN-15 ASHOK LEYLAND RESULTS30-JAN-15 SIEMENS RESULTS30-JAN-15 TECH MAHINDRA RESULTS30-JAN-15 SUN TV NETWORK RESULTS/DIVIDEND30-JAN-15 NTPC RESULTS/DIVIDEND30-JAN-15 IFCI RESULTS30-JAN-15 JSW STEEL RESULTS30-JAN-15 HCL TECHNOLOGIES RESULTS/DIVIDEND/BONUS30-JAN-15 ICICI BANK RESULTS30-JAN-15 BANK OF BARODA RESULTS30-JAN-15 DABUR INDIA RESULTS31-JAN-15 GRASIM INDUSTRIES RESULTS31-JAN-15 EXIDE INDUSTRIES RESULTS
FORTHCOMING EVENTS
NOTES:
1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of "Morning Mantra ".
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the stock. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
TREND SHEET
Stocks *Closing Trend Date Rate SUPPORT RESISTANCE Closing
Price Trend Trend
Changed Changed
SENSEX 29279 UP 12.09.13 19317 27800 27400
S&P NIFTY 8836 UP 12.09.13 5728 8350 8250
CNX IT 11885 UP 16.01.15 11660 11300 11100
CNX BANK 20073 UP 08.03.14 11278 19000 18700
ACC 1542 UP 16.01.15 1518 1460 1430
BHARTIAIRTEL 384 UP 23.01.15 384 365 355
BHEL 279 UP 02.01.15 275 265 255
CIPLA 678 UP 12.06.14 416 630 620
DLF 157 UP 23.01.15 157 140 135
HINDALCO 145 DOWN 12.12.14 154 155 160
ICICI BANK 371 UP 08.03.14 227 350 340
INFOSYS 2215 UP 16.01.15 2118 2100 2000
ITC 349 DOWN 09.01.15 357 365 370
L&T 1711 UP 16.01.15 1711 1600 1560
MARUTI 3607 UP 19.09.13 1480 3400 3300
NTPC 142 DOWN 17.07.14 150 145 150
ONGC 349 DOWN 17.10.14 397 370 375
RELIANCE 887 DOWN 12.12.14 882 930 950
TATASTEEL 403 DOWN 27.08.14 513 410 420
S/l
4
®
Closing as on 23-01-2015
BSE SENSEX GAINERS & LOSERS TOP (% Change) NSE NIFTY GAINERS TOP & LOSERS (% Change)
SECTORAL INDICES (% Change)
SMC Trend
SMC Trend
FMCGHealthcare
FTSE 100CAC 40
Auto BankRealty
Cap GoodsCons Durable
Oil & GasPower
NasdaqDow jonesS&P 500
NikkeiStrait times
Hang SengShanghai
ITMetal
Down SidewaysUp
GLOBAL INDICES (% Change)
INDIAN INDICES (% Change)
5
®
SMC Trend
Nifty BSE Midcap S&P CNX 500BSE SmallcapSensex Nifty Junior
2.913.14
0.73
1.231.03
2.30
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Nifty Sensex BSE Midcap BSE Smallcap
Nifty Junior S&P CNX 500
2.49
3.563.67 3.74
-0.74
3.64
1.82
3.66
1.261.40
1.78
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
Auto Index Bankex Cap Goods Index
Cons Durable Index
FMCG Index Healthcare Index
IT Index Metal Index Oil & Gas Index
Power Index Realty Index
2.50
1.73
2.17
2.76
2.11
1.74
-0.98
3.763.95
-2.00
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
Nasdaq Comp. Dow Jones S&P 500 Nikkei Strait Times Hang Seng Shanghai Comp.
FTSE 100 CAC 40
-112.10
1219.36
416.92
1320.25
2130.09
217.20
-36.80
-226.30-500.00
0.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
Friday Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
FII / FPI Activity MF Activity
9.72
8.00 7.95 7.747.25
-2.49-2.03
-0.76 -0.45 -0.14
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Axis Bank Bharti Airtel Sun Pharma.Inds.
Tata Motors H D F C ITC Hero Motocorp
TCS Maruti Suzuki
NTPC
9.70
8.277.92 7.75
7.12
-2.62-2.09 -2.03
-0.73 -0.55
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
Axis Bank Sun Pharma.Inds.
Bharti Airtel Tata Motors H D F C ITC Tech Mahindra
Hero Motocorp
TCS Kotak Mah. Bank
INSTITUTIONAL ACTIVITY (Equity) (` Crore)
Beat the street - Fundamental Analysis
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 8 to 10 months. Source: Company Website Reuters Capitaline
6
®
Investment Rationale •Provision Coverage Ratio stood at 57.97% as compare to 59.97% during the corresponding •Business of the bank increased by 7% yoy to ̀ 544576 period in the previous fiscal. The bank's capital crore at end September 2014. Overseas business adequacy ratio (Basel II) stood at 10.57% as on increased at accelerated pace of 26% to `23204 September 2014 against 10.38% in September crore, while domestic business grew by 6% to ̀ 521372 2013. CRAR would be 28 bps higher after adding crore at end September 2014. Global advances back the profit for Q1FY2015. increased 10% to ̀ 244411 crore, while global deposits
Valuationrose 5% to `300165 crore at end September 2014. Bank has targeted the advances growth of 10-12% and Recently, RBI has cut its key rates by 25 basis point as deposits growth at 9-10% for FY2015. falling crude oil prices has helped inflation to fall
below the banks (RBI) target. This will have positive •Yield on funds increased 22 bps yoy to 9.09% in impact on the bank as low interest rate scenario Q2FY2015, while the cost of funds rose 21 bps yoy would boost cedit growth of the bank. The Bank's to 6.7% in Q2FY2015. Net Interest Margin (NIM) planning to add more branches and this would help in was stable at 2.53% in Q2FY2015 compared with improving the CASA ratio and hence would achieve 2.54% in Q2FY2014. Bank proposes to improve NIM higher NIM. Thus, it is expected that the stock may to 3.0% by Q4FY2015. see a price target of `316 in 8 To 10 months time •The Gross NPA of the bank stood at 4.69% as at frame on a target P/BV of 1x and FY16 (E) BVPS of September 2014 in comparision to 3.64% during `315.54.the same period previous year. The net NPA stood
at 2.71% as against 2.15% for the same period. Bank plans to contain the GNPA ratio below 4% at end March 2015.
•Bank sold about ̀ 440 crore stressed loans to asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) in Q1FY2015. The outstanding securities receipts book of the bank stands at `485 crore. Bank is not aggressive on selling stressed loans to ARCs.
•Current Account Savings Account (CASA) ratio of the bank stood at 28.7% at end September 2014 as compare to 29.1% at end June 2014. CASA ratio is proposed to be improved to 31% by end March 2015.
Face Value (`) 10.00
52 Week High/Low 259.60/100.60
M.Cap (`Cr.) 15687.84
EPS (`) 30.88
P/E Ratio (times) 7.99
P/B Ratio (times) 0.92
Stock Exchange BSE
` in cr
% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/B Chart
UNION BANK OF INDIA CMP: 246.75 Upside: 28%Target Price: 316
VALUE PARAMETERS
Actual Estimate
FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 11,067.50 11,959.00 13,947.70
EBIT 5,191.50 2,186.70 2,799.60
Operating Pro. 2,042.20 2,664.30 3,181.70
Pre-tax Profit 2,042.20 2,768.60 3,420.80
Net Income 1,669.60 1,932.70 2,381.20
EPS 27.56 29.83 35.77
BVPS 297.40 285.50 315.54
ROE 9.20 10.30 10.80
RALLIS INDIA LIMITED CMP: 230.50 Upside: 27%Target Price: 293
Investment Rationale sales in next couple of years. •Rallis, a Tata Group firm, is known for its •The company is a direct beneficiary of Indian
manufacturing capabilities in crop solution space agriculture growth. Lower penetration of and various types of chemistries with ability to agrochemicals in India and its cost advantage develop new processes and formulations supported underpin a long term growth. A strong brand, by the capacity to register new products. It has complete portfolio and extensive distribution contract manufacturing alliances with several network command a premium for Rallis.multinational agrochemical companies. •The company continues to make its investments in
•Company's strong brands and effective farmer strengthening its market reach and farmer connect relationship programs drove its market performance through its flagship programme Rallis Kisan Kutumba. along with the new product introductions notably ValuationOrigin, Hunk, Epic and Blend. The company The company is known for its deep understanding of continued to focus on working capital and placing Indian agriculture, sustained relashioship with stocks to align with market requirements. farmers, quality agrochemicals, branding and
•Metahelix Life Sciences Limited, a fully-owned marketing experise and its strong product portfolio, subsidiary of the company, is planning to set up a we expect the stock to see a price target of ̀ 293 in 8 hybrid maize and rice seed processing and packaging to 10 months time frame on a one year average P/E of unit in Chhattisgarh by the end of this financial year. 25.53x and FY16 (E) earnings of ̀ 11.47.At present, Metahelix currently supplies 30,000 tonne of field and vegetable seeds a year.
•On Contract manufacturing side, the management is confident of some regulatory clearance in Q4 FY'15 for 1 project and execution will start. Advanced stage for some other projects are going on but details will be revealed at the end of FY'15.
•Company's international business also contributed well though there has been competitive pressure and softening in demand. The company has encouraging response to its new introductions to its new introductions in hybrid Corn and Paddy seeds.
•The non pesticides business constitute about 35% of total sales and management is well within its desired target of reaching around 40% of the total
Face Value (`) 1.00
52 Week High/Low 254.45/151.05
M.Cap (`Cr.) 4480.92
EPS (`) 7.98
P/E Ratio (times) 28.87
P/B Ratio (times) 6.24
Dividend Yield (%) 1.04
Stock Exchange BSE
VALUE PARAMETERS
% OF SHARE HOLDING
P/E Chart
` in cr
Actual Estimate FY Mar-14 FY Mar-15 FY Mar-16
Revenue 1,725.70 1,957.40 2,302.90EBITDA 261.20 297.60 374.00EBIT 220.60 256.90 327.10Pre-tax Profit 214.40 250.40 325.80Net Income 151.90 176.00 226.80EPS 7.81 8.91 11.47BVPS 36.92 43.19 51.01ROE 22.70 22.00 24.10
10.11
17.25
4.2860.47
7.89
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
16.65 4.65
5.83
50.09
22.78
Foreign
Institutions
Non Promoter Corporate Holding
Promoters
Public & Others
Charts by Spider Software India Ltd
7
The stock closed at `383.25 on 23rd January 2015. It made a 52-week low at
`281.90 on 24th February 2014 and a 52-week high at `420 on 19th September
2014. The 200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily
chart is currently at ̀ 361.72.
It moved up from lower levels by forming higher highs and higher lows, which is a
bullish sign. Moreover, it is near to its 52 week high, which indicates its strength.
So, one may buy in the range of 371-375 for the upside target of 393-397 with SL
of 359.
EQUITY
Above calls are recommended with a time horizon of 1-2 months
The stock closed at `77.30 on 23rd January 2015. It made a 52-week low at
`48.50 on 03rd March 2014 and a 52-week high of ̀ 87.90 on 09th June 2014. The
200 days Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the stock on the daily chart is
currently at ̀ 68.51.
After a strong consolidation between 65-75 levels, last week it rose almost 19
percent with huge volumes which shows that fresh buying is there and may
sustain in coming weeks. So, one can buy in the range of 72-74 for the upside
target of 84-87 with SL of 67.70.
Disclaimer : research. The analysis contained in the analyst research is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results.The analyst, not any of its affiliated companies, not any of their members, directors, employees or agents accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of the analysis research.
The analyst and its affiliates companies make no representation or warranty in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained in its
®
BOMBAY DYEING & MFG COMPANY LIMITED
BHARTI AIRTEL LIMITED
DERIVATIVES
CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)
WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET
NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (IN QTY)BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (IN QTY)
®
GODREJIND (JAN FUTURE)
Buy: Above `318
Target: `328
Stop loss: `313
UPL
Buy JAN 350. PUT 2.15
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 347.85
Max. Profit: UNLIMITED
Max. Loss: 2150.00 (2.15*1000)
OPTIONSTRATEGY
FUTURE
CIPLA
Buy JAN 700. CALL 4.20
Sell JAN 720. CALL 1.60
Lot size: 500
BEP: 702.60
Max. Profit: 3700.00(7.40*500)
Max. Loss: 1300.00 ( 2.60*500)
ADANIPORTS
Buy JAN 350. CALL 5.25
Sell JAN 360. CALL 2.50
Lot size: 1000
BEP: 352.75
Max. Profit: 7250.00 (7.25*1000)
Max. Loss: 27500 ( 2.75*1000)
BULLISH STRATEGY
DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES
JINDALSTEL (JAN FUTURE)
Buy: Above `161
Target: `169
Stop loss: `157
CESC (JAN FUTURE)
Sell: Below `709
Target: `688
Stop loss: `719
BEARISH STRATEGY
We are seeing continuous put writing in all the strikes below 8700 and call accumulation in 8500, 8600 and 8700 call options. Long buildup and short
unwinding are seen in major Nifty heavy weights stocks. Nifty has next support around 8700- levels and it is quite likely that Nifty may test or break 8900
levels next week. Overall market looks sideways to positive. Hereafter, the range of 8700-9000 will remain crucial for the current expiry and the move is
expected to remain sideways. If Nifty slips below the 8700 mark, it could slide to 8600 levels due to increased selling pressure. On the contrary, the
index may face stiff resistance at 8950-9000 levels. The put-call ratio of open interest increased last week and closed at 1.74 levels. The options open
interest concentration continued to be at the 9000-strike call with the highest open interest of above 40 lakh shares. Among the put options, the 8600-
strike has the highest open interest of 50 lakh shares. Nifty put options' implied volatility (IV) closed at 21.54%, while Nifty call options' IV closed at
21.90%. Nifty VIX closed at 17.88%.
In lakhs
In 10000 In 10000
Call Put
4.1
3
6.2
7
4.4
6
10
.64
13
.43 17
.76
19
.16
29
.07
32
.00 36
.43
43
.96
38
.33
56
.59
35
.75
33
.88
41
.91
43
.34
51
.52
52
.54
45
.11
13
.45
3.9
5
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 9000
Call Put
1.7
1
1.8
7
4.0
1
0.2
6
14
.68
25
.74
26
.06
7.2
4
15
.70
49
.61
18
.51
33
.78
34
.49
46
.16
16
.26
48
.56
47
.91
47
.47
9.1
9
17
.75
13
.46
0.1
7
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
17000 17500 18000 18200 18500 19000 19500 19600 19800 20000 20500
Call Put
-1.5
2
-1.6
6
-1.1
8
-2.8
8
-8.7
0
-19
.86
-14
.47
-17
.40
-12
.93
9.3
3
17
.30
-5.3
9
-11
.76
-18
.38
-17
.99 -1
0.4
6
-5.8
9
13
.93
35
.44
37
.72
10
.56
-0.6
9
-30.00
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
7900 8000 8100 8200 8300 8400 8500 8600 8700 8800 9000
Call Put
-0.3
6
-0.1
1
-1.2
7
-0.0
3
-4.2
6
-8.2
6
-11
.78
2.5
4 7.8
5
0.0
6
15
.01
-3.1
1
-2.1
5
-13
.24
-1.6
2
-0.3
3
10
.28
43
.64
9.1
5
17
.70
12
.29
0.1
6
-20.00
-10.00
0.00
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
17000 17500 18000 18200 18500 19000 19500 19600 19800 20000 20500
8
In lakhs
9
DERIVATIVES
®
FII’s ACTIVITY IN DERIVATIVE SEGMENT
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (NIFTY)
22-Jan 21-Jan 20-Jan 19-Jan 16-Jan
NIFTY Discount/Premium 17.75 9.00 21.55 23.40 21.25
PCR(OI) 1.74 1.78 1.74 1.64 1.55
PCR(VOL) 1.20 1.07 1.10 1.10 0.96
A/D RATIO(Nifty 50) 1.94 1.08 4.56 1.94 0.92
A/D RATIO(All FO Stock)* 1.09 0.85 1.65 1.65 1.28
Implied Volatality 21.89 15.72 19.30 16.61 15.63
VIX 18.57 17.71 17.27 17.65 17.65
HISTORY. VOL 20.53 21.06 21.69 20.89 21.44
*All Future Stock
SENTIMENT INDICATOR (BANKNIFTY)
22-Jan 21-Jan 20-Jan 19-Jan 16-Jan
Banknifty Discount/Premium 130.05 122.60 419.40 230.65 52.80
PCR(OI) 1.79 1.72 1.69 1.57 1.50
PCR(VOL) 1.04 0.96 1.08 1.01 0.99
A/D RATIO(BANKNIFTY) 0.50 2.00 5.00 3.00 0.50
A/D RATIO(All BANKING Stock)* 0.24 2.00 6.00 3.00 0.24
Implied Volatality 21.81 21.64 20.91 22.11 21.62
HISTORY. VOL 25.33 26.04 26.82 26.16 26.61
FII’S ACTIVITY IN NIFTY FUTURE
Top 10 long build up Top 10 short build up
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
UBL 996.8 5.23% 386000 23.72%
DISHTV 74.65 8.11% 30184000 18.57%
STAR 933.1 0.16% 2001000 16.24%
IBULHSGFIN 579.45 3.09% 2635000 10.97%
ULTRACEMCO 3135.25 1.78% 1129375 9.62%
INDIACEM 110.95 8.30% 22476000 5.71%
JINDALSTEL 154.15 1.75% 26445000 5.48%
WIPRO 594.85 7.26% 8605000 2.79%
HDFC 1284 7.05% 8220000 2.44%
WOCKPHARMA 1113.35 7.40% 3620500 2.03%
**The highest call open interest acts as resistance and highest put open interest acts as support.# Price rise with rise in open interest suggests long buildup | Price fall with rise in open interest suggests short buildup # Price fall with fall in open interest suggests long unwinding | Price rise with fall in open interest suggests short covering
LTP % Price Change Open interest %OI Chng
M&MFIN 264.15 -13.94% 8083000 45.48%
SKSMICRO 444.05 -5.52% 5967000 20.28%
HEROMOTOCO 2847.4 -2.21% 1744500 14.81%
PETRONET 189.7 -4.43% 4480000 13.76%
DIVISLAB 1663.05 -3.38% 641125 8.92%
TCS 2516.35 -0.86% 4373375 8.13%
MINDTREE 1316.85 -4.74% 408750 8.06%
SRTRANSFIN 1124.15 -3.78% 1078500 7.61%
ITC 352.3 -2.27% 31982000 5.92%
ANDHRABANK 92.25 -0.70% 16356000 3.91%
## All BANKING Future Stock
In Cr. In Cr.
-17
7
-24
5
44
1
17
8
38
97
-84
8
56
17
49
48
3 90
2
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
09-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan
12
69
.99
-33
6.8
5
10
21
.81
25
1.7
6
71
51
.15
89
8.0
6
-51
0.1
0
29
70
.99
29
3.7
9
-12
36
.72-2000.00
-1000.00
0.00
1000.00
2000.00
3000.00
4000.00
5000.00
6000.00
7000.00
8000.00
09-Jan 12-Jan 13-Jan 14-Jan 15-Jan 16-Jan 19-Jan 20-Jan 21-Jan 22-Jan
Jeera futures (Feb) is likely to consolidate in the range of 15200-16100 levels. The factors supporting are (i) there might be a gap between demand & supply as the current year sowing area is down by 35 – 40% in major growing states Gujarat and Rajasthan. (ii) The new crop arrivals will possibly enter into the market till March end. It has also been anticipated that the recent rain in Gujarat major growing regions like Surendranagar, Porbandar area may affect standing crop quality. However, the bearish fundamentals that might lend a negative sentiment are lower buying activity at the spot markets due to higher prices & profit booking on the national bourse. Coriander futures (Apr) is expected to face resistance near 8450 levels. The spot prices have eased on the domestic markets of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh as the rains in the north India and cold conditions elsewhere have dampened the market sentiments. In the current scenario, the crop is reported well in Rajasthan and Gujarat growing regions & the production is likely to go up 20 – 25%. In Rajasthan, new crop arrivals may come from February 15th. Turmeric futures (Apr) would possibly extend the downfall as the new crop has hit major spot markets of Erode, Sangli & Nizamabad. The arrival of the new crop is slowly increasing & on the contrary, there is not a sufficient upcountry demand to cap the downside. There are also issues of availability for good quality yellow spice and hence the buyers are quoting lower prices and purchasing limited stock. The counter is expected to test 8150-8070 levels in the days to come. Cardamom futures (Feb) is expected to consolidate in the range of 955-1015 levels. In the spot markets, there is a lack of 8mm good quality capsules as the harvest has entered the fifth round.
SPICES
Gold can trade on a sideways path on mixed fundamentals. Gold can move in the range of 27300-28500 while Silver can move in the range of 38000-41500. Meanwhile, the movement of the local currency rupee will affect the prices on the domestic bourses. Gold witnessed its third straight weekly gain after the European Central Bank expanded stimulus measures and Russia added to its reserves for the ninth month. ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to buy 60 billion euros every month through September next year in a push to put more cash in circulation and revive inflation. Russia's gold reserves, the world's fifth biggest, rose to about 38.8 million ounces by Jan. 1 from 38.2 million ounces a month earlier. U.S. policy makers meet Jan. 27-28 to discuss interest rates as inflation hovers below a 2 percent target and the economy shows improvement. The Fed last month said it would be “patient” in raising rates for the first time since 2006. COMEX gold faces resistance near $1350 in COMEX and 28500 in MCX. Quantitative easing has pushed global real bond yields into negative territory, making gold attractive since it provides no yield but the potential for price gains. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold exchange traded fund, have risen by 33 tonnes so far this year, reversing a decline seen in the second half of last year. Meanwhile, higher prices will eventually deter physical buying in India and China, the world's largest consumers of the metal. Safe-haven buying interest was featured in the aftermath of the European Central Bank's move to implement quantitative easing of its monetary policy.
BULLIONS
10
The base metals counter is expected to remain on weaker path continuing last week losses. The preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics was at 49.8 in January compared with 49.6 last month. Copper may move in the range of 337-368. China housing market is weak and Chinese buyers did not buy as much copper on long term contracts at the beginning of this year. The physical market is also seasonally quieter before the Chinese New Year holiday in February. Copper was under pressure recently as investors and physical buyers continued to shun the industrial metal and stockpiles on the London Metal Exchange rose. Copper demand was also thought to be weakened by a clampdown on the use of metal as collateral to obtain financing, after an alleged fraud was discovered in the port of Qingdao in May. While Zinc moved in the range of 127-132. Meanwhile, lead can move in the range of 110-115 in MCX while Nickel prices may trade in the range of 860-945. Production cutbacks at Paroo Station appear to have supported the lead prices. But lead may face a double whammy on supply with mine output being cut and low prices reducing scrap availability. Aluminum may move in the range of 112-116. LME Cash to 3M forward backwardation for Aluminium shifted back to being in contango at $3 MT. However, inventories continued to decline over and above the decline in the cancelled warrants providing mixed cues for the metal. The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium will drop, but remain near record highs in 2015 as warehouse queues are reduced.
®
BASE METALS
Crude oil may continue its downfall on global oversupply concerns, but some lower level buying cannot be denied. Crude oil can move in the range of $43-$53 in NYMEX and 2700-3200 in MCX. Oil fell almost 50 percent last year as the U.S. pumped at the fastest rate in more than three decades and OPEC resisted calls to cut output. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer, rose by 10.1 million barrels through Jan. 16, the Energy Information Administration reported last week. That was the biggest volume increase since March 2001. Recently, oil jumped after the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and Crown Prince Salman bin Abdulaziz will succeed as king. King Abdullah oversaw a fivefold increase in the size of the Arab world's biggest economy and met the Arab Spring with a mixture of force and largesse. OPEC's 12 members, which supply about 40 percent of the world's oil, maintained their collective production target at 30 million barrels a day at a Nov. 27 meeting in Vienna .Natural gas prices may trade on a volatile path in the range of 162-195 in MCX. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration “Storage levels of natural gas shrank by 216 billion cubic feet in the week ended Jan. 16”. Natural gas low prices could be within a few cents of competing against the coal in the US , which means power plants could step in and buy more gas, thereby giving support to the market.
ENERGY COMPLEXMustard futures (Apr) is likely to fall for the third consecutive week towards 3320 levels. With recent rains and cold wave promising to be quite beneficial to the standing crop has changed the sentiments & stockists are releasing their produce at the spot markets. The downtrend in Soybean futures (Feb) is expected to get extended towards 3230 levels, breaching the support of 3300 levels. In the current scenario, the domestic soybean crushing units or the solvent extractors are facing a severe crisis on disparity in crushing followed by weak soy meal export sales and cheaper imports of edible oil. On the international front, U.S. soybeans are near their lowest since late October they were on track for a second week of decline, under pressure from forecasts of record output in Brazil & Chinese importers shifting their buying to South America. Refined soy oil futures (Feb) would possibly slide down towards 600 levels taking bearish cues from the estimates of higher imports. There are talks that the country's soyabean oil imports may touch over two million tonnes, the highest in a decade. Due to high prices of soybean and lesser realization for oil and soybean meal in export markets, resulted in lower crushing and availability of domestic oil. At the spot markets, demand from local retailers was poor as the month-end is approaching. CPO futures (Feb) is seen approaching towards 425 levels on the downside weighed by poor demand and weakness in the crude oil prices. The drop in crude oil prices has reduced the demand from the bio-fuels sector, while market participants also cited slow demand from key buyers such as China and India. Meanwhile, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board predicted that in its worst scenario, prices could drop to six-year lows of 1,820 ringgit a tonne.
OIL AND OILSEEDS
OTHER COMMODITIES
The downtrend in Kapas futures (Apr) is likely to continue to test 700 levels owing to factors of higher supplies, lower export demand from overseas countries. The projected balance sheet drawn by the CAI for the year 2014-15 estimates total cotton supply at 472.15 lakh bales while domestic consumption is estimated at 306 lakh bales, thus leaving an available surplus of 166.15 lakh bales. The drastic cuts of import by China have dampened the cotton prices all over the world. China imported 264,500 tonnes of cotton in December, down 57% from the corresponding month a year ago. ICE cotton fell to its lowest level in nearly 5-1/2 years to settle at 57.76 cents a lb. Sugar futures (Mar) is expected to consolidate in the range of 2640-2750 levels. The available surplus in the country & lack of export opportunities is keeping the demand side dull. It is estimated that production of the sweetener may rise to 26 million tonnes in the year that began on October 1, according to the median of estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the highest since 2011-2012 and more than the 25-25.5 million tonnes of the forecast by the Indian Sugar Mills Association on December 18. The exporters are in a cautious mode as they are waiting for the opportunity when Indian parity will compete with Thai sugar if the Government agrees to incentives to help mills ship out the raw variety. Chana futures (Feb) is expected to fall towards 3180 levels amid favorable weather over major growing regions. The major producing belt in northern states has witnessed decent rainfall in last few days, boosting hopes of excellent yields. Meanwhile, the stockist are selling their old stocks as the arrivals of tur & moong has commenced in many states.
11
TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS
COMMODITY
CRUDE OIL MCX (FEBRUARY) contract closed at `2891.00 on 22nd January '15. The contract made its
high of `4699.00 on 26th November '14 and a low of `2820.00 on 13th January '14. The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the commodity is currently at ̀ 3110. On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 23. One can sell in the
range 3010-3040 with the stop loss of ̀ 3100 for a target of ̀ 2850.
RMSEED NCDEX (APRIL) contract closed at 3431.00 on 22nd January '15. The contract made its high of
`3625.00 on 12th January '15 and a low of ̀ 3295.00 on 1st December '14. The 18-day Exponential Moving
Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 3481.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39. One can sell in the
range 3420-3440 with the stop loss of ̀ 3470 for a target of ̀ 3330.
`
SOYAREFINED OIL NCDEX (FEBRUARY) contract closed at 625.00 on 22nd January '15. The contract
made its high of `663.95 on 8th January '15 and a low of `582.00 on 1st December '14. The 18-day
Exponential Moving Average of the Commodity is currently at ̀ 639.
On the daily chart, the commodity has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 39. One can sell in the
range 625-628 with the stop loss of ̀ 631 for a target of ̀ 610.
`
®
CRUDE OIL MCX (FEBRUARY)
RMSEED NCDEX (APRIL)
SOYAREFINED OIL NCDEX (FEBRUARY)
NOTES : 1) These levels should not be confused with the daily trend sheet, which is sent every morning by e-mail in the name of Daily report- commodities (Morning Mantra).
2) Sometimes you will find the stop loss to be too far but if we change the stop loss once, we will find more strength coming into the commodity. At the moment, the stop loss will be far as we are seeing the graphs on weekly basis and taking a long-term view and not a short-term view.
EXCHANGE COMMODITY CONTRACT CLOSING DATE TREND TREND RATE TREND SUPPORT RESISTANCE CLOSING
PRICE CHANGED CHANGED STOP/LOSS
NCDEX SOYABEAN FEB 3359.00 15.01.15 SIDEWAYS
NCDEX JEERA FEB 15960.00 13.11.14 UP 12090.00 15000.00 14000.00
NCDEX CHANA FEB 3294.00 30.10.14 UP 3131.00 3150.00 3100.00
NCDEX RM SEEDS APR 3431.00 22.01.15 DOWN 3431.00 - 3600.00 3700.00
MCX MENTHA OIL FEB 742.30 29.05.14 SIDEWAYS
MCX CARDAMOM FEB 993.60 01.01.15 UP 1038.40 980.00 950.00
MCX SILVER MAR 40079.00 11.12.14 UP 38668.00 37000.00 35000.00
MCX GOLD FEB 28036.00 11.12.14 UP 27191.00 27200.00 26800.00
MCX COPPER FEB 350.95 16.10.14 DOWN 409.00 - 375.00 385.00
MCX LEAD FEB 116.25 11.09.14 DOWN 128.95 - 117.00 120.00
MCX ZINC FEB 131.75 15.01.15 DOWN 126.80 - 135.00 139.00
MCX NICKEL FEB 910.70 15.01.15 DOWN 891.40 - 960.00 1000.00
MCX ALUMINUM FEB 114.75 15.01.15 DOWN 110.30 - 116.00 121.00
MCX CRUDE OIL FEB 2891.00 21.08.14 DOWN 5745.00 - 3200.00 3350.00
MCX NATURAL GAS FEB 173.20 04.12.14 DOWN 226.80 - 200.00 215.00
TREND SHEET
Closing as on 22.01.15
COMMODITY
NEWS DIGEST
Selling pressure persisted in commodities counter due to strong dollar index and equity
markets. Both Brent and sweet crude traded below $50 level on fundamental weakness. Surge
in inventories further put pressure on the prices. However, oil recovered to some extent after
the news of death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest oil consumer,
rose by 10.1 million barrels through Jan. 16, the Energy Information Administration reported
on Thursday; the biggest volume gain since March 2001. In industrial metals counter, zinc and
aluminium closed the week on positive note whereas nickel and lead couldn't sustain at higher
levels. Imports of nickel ore by China, the world's largest consumer of industrial metals,
slumped to the lowest in four years as an Indonesian ban on unprocessed minerals tightened
global supply. Copper breached the mark of 350 on MCX. Copper headed for a sixth weekly loss
after data showed manufacturing contracted in China, the world's biggest consumer. Bullion
counter was the cynosure of the market with its strong upside. Silver headed for a bull market
in its best start to a year in more than three decades, supported by speculation that slowing
global economic growth will spur demand for havens. Holdings in exchange-traded products
backed by the metal have posted three straight weekly gains, while U.S government data show
money managers raised their net-bullish wagers to the highest since August. Gold was just few
dollar away from the $1300 in COMEX and 28000 in MCX. A collapse in oil prices has boosted the
appeal for gold amid the threat of economy-damaging deflation.
In agri commodities, chana took correction on arrivals of other pulses crop in market.
Commencement of new moong started in Andhra Pradesh markets (Khammam, Warangal,
Karimnagar etc). In Odisha, new moong crop arrival expected in second week of Feb. oil seeds
and edible oil counter moved down in further weakness in CPO on BMD. Global wheat market
has firmed up in last one month and downward correction is unlikely at this point of time.
Improved price in major exporting nations and the tax imposition on Russian export may go in
favor of Indian wheat export in the months ahead. In Nizamabad regions, new crop arrivals
started coming with lower quantity, put pressure on turmeric prices in futures market as well.
Jeera and cardamom were also down on profit booking.
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (NCDEX)
COMMODITY UNIT 22.01.15 DIFFERENCEQTY. QTY.
BAJRA MT 20 20 0
CASTOR SEED MT 370387 429669 59282
CHANA MT 34634 37343 2709
CORIANDER MT 9522 10887 1365
COTTON (29MM) BALES 500 500 0
GUARGUM MT 11144 10463 -681
GUARSEED MT 16670 15522 -1148
JEERA MT 5047 6520 1473
MAIZE MT 12022 16041 4019
RAPE MUSTARD SEED MT 10634 8127 -2507
SOYABEAN MT 14162 5592 -8570
TURMERIC MT 0 158 158
WHEAT MT 159 674 515
14.01.15 COMMODITY UNIT 22.01.15 DIFFERENCE
QTY. QTY.
CARDAMOM MT 20.00 19.90 -0.10
COTTON BALES 33500.00 41200.00 7700.00
GOLD KGS 33.00 33.00 0.00
GOLD MINI KGS 68.40 11.40 -57.00
GOLD GUINEA KGS 27.14 27.12 -0.02
MENTHA OIL KGS 4547858.80 3987685.40 -560173.40
SILVER (30 KG Bar) KGS 9879.04 9658.70 -220.34
14.01.15
•The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has
approved the fair and remunerative price of sugarcane
payable by sugar mills for the 2015-16 sugar season to
be fixed at ̀ 230 per quintal.
•The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has
given its approval to revise the buffer norms of
foodgrains in the Central Pool as follows: 1st April
21.04 MT, 1st July 41.12 MT, 1st Oct 30.77 MT, 1st Jan
21.41 MT.
•The Maharashtra government waived purchase tax on
sugarcane price given to farmers by the state-based
cooperative sugar factories for the current fiscal.
•The Cotton Association of India (CAI) said December
estimate of the crop stood at 400.25 lakh bales for the
season 2014-15, lower by 1.75 lakh bales as compared
to estimates in the month of November 2014.
•Japan's aluminium premiums were mostly set at a
record high of $425 per tonne for January-March
deliveries, rising for a fifth straight quarter.
•China's refined copper production rose 13.8 percent to
7.96 million tonnes in 2014.
•Oil traders have booked up to 20 tankers to store an
estimated 40 million barrels of crude at sea.
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN WAREHOUSE (MCX)
12
®
NCDEX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change) MCX TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (% Change)
6.41
4.394.11
1.561.07
-7.94
-5.47
-4.90-4.49
-3.99
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
SILVER HEDGE 5 KGS
CORIANDER CRUDE OIL GOLD NEW MAIZE KHARIF CASTOR SEED NEW
TURMERIC COTTON 29 MM SOYA OIL KAPAS
4.003.70
1.471.10 0.97
-10.68
-9.80
-7.80
-4.77-4.30
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
SILVER 1000 GOLD PETAL (DEL)
ZINC LEAD ALUMINIUM NATURAL GAS CARDAMOM BR. CRUDE OIL COTTON CRUDE OIL
COMMODITY
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT 22.01.15 CHANGE%
ALUMINIUM LME 3 MONTHS 1845.00 1866.00 1.14
COPPER LME 3 MONTHS 5715.00 5665.00 -0.87
LEAD LME 3 MONTHS 1850.00 1890.00 2.16
NICKEL LME 3 MONTHS 14780.00 14850.00 0.47
ZINC LME 3 MONTHS 2097.50 2141.00 2.07
GOLD COMEX FEB 1276.90 1300.70 1.86
SILVER COMEX MAR 17.75 18.36 3.44
LIGHT CRUDE OIL NYMEX MAR 49.13 46.31 -5.74
NATURAL GAS NYMEX FEB 3.13 2.84 -9.34
16.01.15
PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (in US $)
WEEKLY STOCK POSITIONS IN LME (IN TONNES)
COMMODITY STOCK POSITION STOCK POSITION DIFFERENCE
15.01.15
ALUMINIUM 4149300 4102475 -46825
COPPER 191325 219450 28125
NICKEL 416436 419964 3528
LEAD 215825 215600 -225
ZINC 667700 652675 -15025
22.01.15
INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES
COMMODITY EXCHANGE CONTRACT UNIT 16.01.15 22.01.15 CHANGE(%)
Soya CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 991.75 976.75 -1.51
Maize CBOT MAR Cent per Bushel 387.00 383.75 -0.84
CPO BMD APR MYR per MT 2312.00 2246.00 -2.85
Sugar LIFFE MAR 10 cents per MT 398.90 407.90 2.26
13
®
SPOT PRICES (% change) Higher buffer stock of foodgrains for higher food security
The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) on January 16, approved to
raise buffer food grain stocks with the Food Corporation of India, to cater to the
rising needs of targeted public distribution system (TPDS) due to the
implementation of the Food Security Act. Once all the states implement the food
law, the shortage of foodgrains may limit the effective implementation of food
Security. So, to avoid the shortage of foodgrains government has taken timely
decision by raising buffer stock and strategic reserve limits of Food Corporation of
India for both wheat and rice. Moreover, for better management of foodgrains at
FCI, the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) has also constituted an
inter-ministerial group to offload excess stocks, if any, in the domestic market
through open sale or exports.
The government maintains buffer stock on quarterly basis for operational and
strategic purposes. The operational purpose is to provide food grains for the public
distribution system (PDS) as per quota fixed for each state. The strategic stock is
for meeting emergency situations such as droughts and natural calamities. The
buffer stock norms are also aimed to ensure stabilising prices during production
shortfall through open market sales.
The government has fixed buffer norms for January, April, July and October. As per
the revised norms, FCI has to maintain higher buffer stock and strategic reserves
during the second and third quarter of the calendar year, while lower stocks in the
first and last quarter of the year. As per the new norms, the FCI is required to hold
41.1 million tonne (mt) of foodgrain, mainly consisting of rice and wheat, on July 1,
which is an increase of 9.2 mt from the existing norm. Similarly, at the start of
October, FCI grain stocks would be 30.7 mt which is an increase of 9.5 mt from the
existing norm. However, for April and January buffer-stocks norm, the CCEA has
approved marginal changes from the current norms. The proposed buffer stock
norm was last revised in 2005.
-8.15
-5.76
-3.40
-3.36
-3.07
-2.89
-2.08
-1.64
-1.57
-1.51
-1.45
-1.44
-1.30
-0.67
-0.15
-0.15
0.00
0.16
0.82
2.94
5.77
11.03
-10.00 -5.00 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00
PEPPER MALABAR GAR (KOCHI)
COTTON (KADI)
CRUDE PALM OIL (KANDLA)
REFINED SOYA OIL (INDORE)
MUSTARD (JAIPUR)
CHANA (DELHI )
MASOOR (INDORE)
SOYABEAN (INDORE)
COTTON SEED OIL CAKE (AKOLA)
SUGAR (KOLKATA)
GUR (MUZAFFARNGR.)
CORIANDER (KOTA)
BARLEY (JAIPUR)
TURMERIC (NIZAMABAD)
RAW JUTE (KOLKATA)
WHEAT (DELHI)
GUAR SEED (JODHPUR)
CHILLI (GUNTUR)
JEERA (UNJHA)
GUAR GUM (JODHPUR)
SILVER 5 KG (DELHI)
MENTHA OIL (BARANBAKI)
The move will help to enhance the country's ability to meet the terms with the WTO
norms on public stock holding for food security. The gap between buffer and actual
stocks, flayed by WTO, would come down with this decision.
The offtake of foodgrain under the Targeted Public Distribution System (TPDS) has
increased significantly in the last few years. Further, the National Food Security
Act has also come into force with effect from July 5, 2013. The foodgrains
requirement under the food law is estimated to rise to 61.4 million tonnes, as
against the current 54-56 million tonnes.
As of now, 11 states and Union Territories have implemented the food law, and the
rest 25 are yet to roll out the scheme, which aims to provide legal right on 5 kg of
foodgrains per person per month at ̀ 1-3 per kg.
Revised stock for different quarters is as follow:
As on date current stock since2005 revised stock
April 1 21.2 million tonne 21.04 million tonne
July 1 31.9 million tonne 41.12 million tonne
October 1 21.2 million tonne 30.77 million tonne
January 1 25.0 million tonne 21.41 million tonne
CURRENCY
Currency Table
Currency Pair Open High Low Close
USD/INR 61.95 62.01 61.52 61.72
EUR/INR 71.40 71.96 71.23 71.79
GBP/INR 93.60 93.89 93.01 93.67
JPY/INR 52.81 52.84 52.05 52.48
(Source: Reliable Software, Open: Monday 9.00 AM IST, Close: Thursday (5.00 PM IST)
News Flows of last week
21st Jan China pumps cash into banks in bid to accelerate growth from 24-year low
21st Jan Bank of Canada cut rate on oil concerns
23rd Jan ECB's Draghi says inflation could stay below zero in coming months
23rd Jan The euro sank to a more than 11-year low against the dollar and a three-month low against the yen
23rd Jan ECB launches 1 trillion euro rescue plan to revive euro economy
23rd Jan Japan factories start 2015 on strong note, flash Jan PMI rises to 52.1
23rd Jan China's manufacturing growth stalled for the second straight month in January
EUR/INR (FEB) contract closed at 72.17 on 22nd January'15. The contract made its high of `72.32 on 19th January'15 and a low of `71.71 on 19th January'15 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the EUR/INR is currently at ̀ 73.72.
On the daily chart, EUR/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 17.91. Technically, the pair is continuously falling making lower highs and lower lows. However the oversold RSI condition is also not supporting pair for any rise indicating a more fall in coming sessions. So, one can sell on bounce around 72.60 for a target of 71.50 with the stop loss of 73.20.
`
JPY/INR (FEB) contract closed at 52.76 on 22nd January'15. The contract made its high of 53.11 on 19th January'15 and a low of `52.35 on 22nd January'15 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the JPY/INR is currently at ̀ 42.74.On the daily chart, JPY/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 42.75. Technically, the pair has resumed its downtrend after trading in range during previous few weeks. From here we expect that downside momentum may remain intact in coming weeks. So, one can sell below 52.50 for a target of 51.50 with the stop loss of 53.10
Market Stance
Once again rupee ended the week with winning streak on local bourses as
against dollar tailing its previous week gains on sustained selling of the US
currency by banks and exporters in view of strong capital inflows. Strong
equity markets mainly supported the rupee sentiment as the benchmark BSE
Sensex rose to an all-time high in the week gone by. However, euro sinking to
its lowest level in more than a decade against the US dollar after the ECB
announced stimulus programme capped the rupee's gains. The rupee, on
which investors have been bullish since October, saw the largest optimistic
bets since June. It has been the best performing Asian currency so far this
month on capital inflows to India. India's central bank on January 15 cut
interest rates to cope with growing signs of slowing inflation and a flagging
recovery. That lifted the country's stocks and bonds.
EUR/INR
USD/INR (FEB) contract closed at ̀ 62.08 on 22nd January '15. The contract made its high of `62.36 on 20h January'15 and a low of `61.87 on 22nd January '15 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the USD/INR is currently at ̀ 62.70.
On the daily chart, the USD/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 28.36. Technically, the pair has given one sided fall in previous few weeks and now taking support just above 61.50 levels from where it rallied towards 64. We expect lower level buying at current levels in coming week as oversold RSI is also suggesting minor pullback. So one can buy above 62.25 for the upside target of 62.85 with the stop loss of 61.80.
GBP/INR (FEB) contract closed at 94.14 on 22nd January'15. The contract made its high of 94.34 on 19th January'15 and a low of `93.49 on 15th January'15 (Weekly Basis). The 14-day Exponential Moving Average of the GBP/INR is currently at ̀ 95.38.On the daily chart, GBP/INR has Relative Strength Index (14-day) value of 24.96. Technically, the pair went into consolidation during last week trading session after giving gap down open in Monday session. Now, from current levels we expect that pair may resume its downtrend once again next week. So, one can sell around 94.65 for a target of 93.50 with the stop loss of 95.20.
`
USD/INRTechnical Recommendation
GBP/INR JPY/INR
Economic gauge for the next week
Date Currency Event PREVIOUS
27th Jan GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 2.60%
27th Jan USD Durable Goods Orders -0.70%
27th Jan USD Consumer Confidence 92.6
28st Jan USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision 0.25%
29th Jan EUR German Unemployment Change -27K
29th Jan EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. 6.50%
29th Jan EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) -
29th Jan EUR German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) -
30th Jan EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate 11.50%
30th Jan EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) -
30th Jan EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) -
30th Jan USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) 5.00%
14
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IPO
IPO NEWSIPO NEWS
Mahanagar Gas to raise around $130 mn via IPO
Mahanagar Gas Ltd, a natural gas distributor in India, is looking to raise around `800 crore (USD 129.66 million) in a stock market listing in the first quarter of
2015, three sources involved in the process told Reuters. Mahanagar Gas, a joint venture between GAIL (India) Ltd and UK's BG Group PLC, has hired Kotak
Mahindra Capital and Citigroup to manage the initial public offering (IPO), the sources added. The company is expected to file for the IPO with market regulator
Securities and Exchange Board of India over the next month, the sources also said, declining to be identified because the information has not been made public.
61 firms made open offers worth ̀ 23,000 crore in 2014
A s many as 61 listed companies made open offers worth over `23,000 crore in 2014 against 81 firms in previous year as buoyant equity market led to subdued
activity in such offers. The Securities and Exchange Board of India ( Sebi) rules require mandatory open offer for minority shareholders in the event of any major
change in promoter holding of a listed company. In case of any direct or indirect acquisition of 25 per cent stake, open offer is required for further acquisition of
26 per cent stake from public shareholders. These offers are made by company promoters and other entities for either consolidation of their holdings or as part of
substantial acquisition/change in control of management in publicly listed companies.
Alkem Labs appoints banks for up to $291 million IPO
Drug manufacturer Alkem Laboratories has appointed Nomura and Axis Capital as lead bankers for a planned ̀ 1500-1800 crore ($242.88-$291.45 million) initial
public offering. Alkem is expected to soon file for the IPO with Securities and Exchange Board of India, according the sources, who declined to be named as the
proceedings have not been made public. Mumbai-based Alkem has sales revenues of more than $500 million, according to its website. The company has seven
manufacturing facilities across the country.
CSB IPO in next fiscal
Kerala based private sector lender Catholic Syrian Bank (CSB) is likely to enter the capital market during the first quarter of the next financial year. Bank's IPO,
which will collect at least `300 crore, will be opened during April-June period. The Thrissur based bank plans to utilize the proceeds from the IPO for
strengthening the capital base and for development initiatives. The bank has a capital base of ̀ 737 crore and its capital adequacy ratio is 11.25% as on 31st March
2014. It is the only Kerala based old generation private sector bank yet to tap the capital market. On a total business of ̀ 22,381.22 crore CSB recorded a net profit
of ̀ 26.88 crore during 2013-14. Net NPA is 2.04%. It has a branch strength of 431 and having 233 ATMs spreading across the country.
Allied Blenders plans to raise ̀ 1200 cr via IPO
Allied Blenders & Distillers has shelved its plans to offload 12% stake to TPG Capital and Carlyle group. The company is planning to raise up to ̀ 1,200 crore an IPO.
The company is planning to rise up to ̀ 1,200 crore an IPO.
Listing time will reduce with e-IPOs
The new e-IPO mechanism proposed by market regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India will make it easier for investors to participate in initial public
offerings (IPOs). The new route will help retail investors and those under the category of "employee reservation" in an IPO to invest through the online route,
without the need for cheque payment or physically filling the application forms. By doing so, the post issue timeline will reduce to six working days from the
existing T+12 days. The reduced listing time means investors' funds will get blocked for a much lesser duration. In the current system, investors have to fill forms
and submit it to their brokers. Those who have a 3-in-1 online trading account, however, do not have to submit physical forms themselves but need brokers to do
it on their behalf. Investors have to give a one-time Power of Attorney to their brokers for this purpose so that they can sign the forms on their behalf and submit
their bids online.
*Closing prices as on 22-01-2015
IPO TRACKER
Monte Carlo Fashions Textile & App. Ind. 1056.5 350.43 19-Dec-14 645 585.00 486.15 -24.63
Shemaroo Entertainment Entertainment 670.18 120 1-Oct-14 170.00 180.00 246.55 45.03
Sharda Cropchem Agro Chemical 2316.86 351.86 23-Sep-14 156.00 254.10 256.80 64.62
Snowman Logistic Miscellaneous 1628.71 197.40 12-Sep-14 47.00 78.75 97.85 108.19
Wonderla Holidays Entertainment 1922.72 181.25 9-May-14 125.00 164.75 340.30 172.24
Just Dial service provider 10982.44 950.11 5-Jun-13 530.00 590.00 1560.15 194.37
Repco Home Fin Finance 4315.3 270.39 1-Apr-13 172.00 165.00 692.10 302.38
V-Mart Retail Trading 950.06 123.00 20-Feb-13 210.00 216.00 527.35 151.12
Bharti Infra. Telecom 68190.47 4533.60 28-Dec-12 220.00 200.00 360.50 63.86
PC Jeweller Jewellary 4654.81 609.30 27-Dec-12 135.00 135.50 259.90 92.52
CARE Rating Agency 4701.77 540.00 26-Dec-12 750.00 949.00 1621.30 116.17
Tara Jewels Jewellary 206.56 179.50 6-Dec-12 230.00 242.00 83.90 -63.52
VKS Projects Engineering 13.86 55.00 18-Jul-12 55.00 55.80 0.22 -99.60
Speciality Rest. Restaurants 873.46 181.96 30-May-12 150.00 153.00 186.00 24.00
T B Z Jewellary 1123.23 210.00 9-May-12 120.00 115.00 168.35 40.29
Company Sector M.Cap(In `Cr.) Issue Size(in `Cr.) List Date Issue Price List Price Last Price %Gain/Loss(from Issue price)
*
15
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16
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Introduction
As market is coming to terms with RBI's new found enthusiasm about easing monetary policy in early 2015, we want
to take a step back to review various assumptions that are embedded in the rally. Moreover, we would want to test
the basis of the rally so that market decisions are easier for investors on change of the assumptions in the future.
Drivers of rally in Fixed Income marketsThe current rally has three basic drivers which are as follows:
Stable government mandate: In May 2014, India voted for a stable government, which could take quick
decisions. The government has shown a lot of intent in last six months by taking pragmatic steps cheered by the
market like the disentanglement of the power-coal issues, deregulation of diesel prices, opening up of FDI in
defence and in railways, etc.
Astute Central Banker: The RBI has taken a proactive route under Dr. Rajan and has managed to cool off
volatility in the money market (with repo/ reverse repo and term repos), in the forex markets (with interventions
as well as the Foreign Currency Non-Repatriable scheme last year) and in the interest rate market (providing more
long term guidance on policy direction). Forex management has been particularly outstanding given that most of
the developing markets have seen large volatilities even in 2014, similar to 2013.
Lower oil prices: Lower oil prices lead to reduction in current account deficit thereby emboldeningthe government to make diesel prices market linked.
This helped reduce fiscal pressure and may also help provide the necessary impetus to much needed growth. Lower oil prices appears sustainable for a while
given OPEC's reluctance to lose market share. Given that shale oil technology is in place, lower oil prices are deterring further investments at the moment.
However, even if those deposits remain trapped due to want of investment, they will always remain a threat against higher prices for traditional oil
producers.
We look at Indian rates market through the positive prism of these three factors as most of the affirmative sentiments emanate from here.
Better fiscal deficit situation and decision making from the government on inflation control (lower MSP, lower procurement quantity) and growth (viz. coal
allocation, kickstarting road projects), lower current account deficit, interest from foreign players in both equity and debt markets, lower supply of
government securities, possibility of rate cuts and position of India as a low volatility (especially in forex terms) emerging market can all be traced to these
prism of positives. If we extend this further an international rating upgrade, growth in equity markets and flow of large funds in the fixed income segment to
fund the credit demand can be medium term positives.
Going forward
As there are three positive bases to this prism, moving one of them marginally may not affect the medium term story of Indian rates. Oil Prices may appear to
be the most transient among these. Bounce back in oil prices after the current drop may be in order, but it could be looked at as an opportunity for
consolidation in rates rather than a selling trigger. The other two factors are more stable in nature and may not change in a hurry.
The other question that comes up frequently is about the US rate hike and its impact on Indian fixed income markets. We think that as long as the positive
prism stays in place, we may see little impact of a start in rate hikes in the US, especially given that other two major economies (Eurozone and Japan) are in
the quantitative easing mode.
The INR has held fort against the USD in 2014 even when other currencies like the JPY and EUR have depreciated, thus some depreciation in the INR in an
orderly manner may not be out of place to maintain export competitiveness.
To conclude
In this piece, we have attempted to underline the importance and shared a framework to weigh the drivers of the fixed income markets. This may be useful
for investors to take conviction calls even when certain assumptions change in the future. We feel if these prism of positives continue to shine in 2015, a
rainbow of 7 percent 10 year Government security rates may not be out of reach.
Mutual fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.
The article is for general information only and does not have regard to specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this information. Investors
should understand that statements made herein regarding future prospects may not be realised. The views expressed in the article are personal views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of HSBC
Asset Management (India) Private Limited or any of its associates. Neither this document nor the units of HSBC Mutual Fund have been registered in any jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain
jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibited and accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions.
No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written
permission of HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited. HSBC Asset Management (India) Private Limited; 16, V. N. Road, Fort, Mumbai 400 001. Tel: 6614 5000. Email: [email protected].
SANJAY SHAHHead of Fixed Income
HSBC Global Asset Management, India
17
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LOOKING THROUGH THE PRISM – A FIXED INCOME PERSPECTIVE
Article
18
MUTUAL FUND Performance Charts
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Beta Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
Sundaram SMILE Fund - Reg - Growth 70.31 15-Feb-2005 675.07 19.86 38.30 124.91 39.94 21.68 3.15 1.09 0.40 1.70 70.93 22.88 4.49
SBI Small & Midcap Fund - Growth 30.20 09-Sep-2009 144.26 28.52 42.83 118.23 43.21 22.84 2.42 0.82 0.52 N.A 52.38 38.13 9.50
DSP BlackRock Micro Cap Fund - Reg - G 38.14 14-Jun-2007 1623.67 19.64 34.66 111.03 40.87 19.22 2.54 0.75 0.50 N.A 75.98 18.69 5.33
Reliance Small Cap Fund - Growth 25.56 16-Sep-2010 1281.99 15.61 32.58 109.47 45.22 24.06 2.64 0.78 0.59 6.20 58.72 22.77 12.32
Canara Robeco Emerging Equities - G 58.44 11-Mar-2005 169.29 19.07 30.77 107.01 43.03 19.65 2.59 0.90 0.44 10.51 74.64 9.43 5.42
Birla Sun Life Pure Value Fund - G 39.23 27-Mar-2008 341.17 14.35 17.71 101.31 38.90 22.16 3.14 1.04 0.42 18.89 61.82 9.90 9.39
Franklin India Smaller Companies Fund - G 38.20 13-Jan-2006 1506.55 17.11 31.11 99.68 46.35 16.00 2.28 0.80 0.50 15.48 60.30 11.77 12.45
EQUITY (Diversified)
BALANCED
INCOME FUND
Note: Indicative corpus are including Growth & Dividend option. The above mentioned data is on the basis of 22/01/2015Beta, Sharpe and Standard Deviation are calculated on the basis of period: 1 year, frequency: Weekly Friday, RF: 7%
ULTRA SHORT TERM
SHORT TERM FUND
Due to their inherent long term nature, the following 3 categories have been sorted on the basis of 1 year returns
Due to their inherent short term nature, Short term funds and Ultra short term funds have been sorted on the basis of 6month and 3month returns respectively
Returns (%) Risk Market Cap (%)
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM 3M 6M 1Y 3Y Since Std.Dev Jenson LARGE MID SMALL DEBT &
(`) Date (` Cr.) Launch CAP CAP CAP OTHER
HDFC Prudence Fund - Growth 389.31 01-Feb-1994 7604.92 10.11 15.00 57.88 24.90 20.56 2.15 0.14 41.43 24.96 4.90 28.71
HDFC Balanced Fund - Growth 109.09 11-Sep-2000 2658.93 12.69 19.41 56.26 26.57 18.09 1.59 0.24 35.99 33.62 N.A 30.38
Tata Balanced Fund - Plan A - Growth 165.39 08-Oct-1995 1437.90 14.35 21.43 55.49 27.70 17.51 1.67 0.21 41.82 30.08 2.18 25.93
Birla Sun Life 95 - Growth 566.69 10-Feb-1995 1058.09 13.07 20.31 54.02 24.63 22.42 1.69 0.19 40.63 30.56 N.A 28.81
Franklin India Balanced Fund - Growth 89.95 10-Dec-1999 307.10 13.70 23.98 52.98 24.63 15.63 1.53 0.19 54.65 11.12 N.A 34.23
L&T India Prudence Fund - Growth 19.10 07-Feb-2011 127.46 13.43 20.71 52.62 26.68 17.76 1.54 0.21 37.70 25.57 3.18 33.54
Canara Robeco Balance - Growth 113.05 01-Feb-1993 268.60 12.62 19.54 52.01 24.43 11.85 1.75 0.16 32.63 34.70 4.03 28.65
Returns (%) RiskAverage Yield till
Scheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. SharpeMaturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
ICICI Prudential LTP - Reg - Cumulative 31.65 28-Mar-2002 133.64 18.96 48.72 33.44 22.93 21.14 12.94 9.4 20.36 0.34 4617.25 7.93
ICICI Prudential Income Fund -Growth 43.6 09-Jul-1998 3068.99 20.51 50.41 31.23 21.12 16.67 9.29 9.3 48.28 0.04 5496.89 7.8
HDFC Income Fund - Growth 31.83 11-Sep-2000 2354.28 32.57 57.61 34.04 20.99 16.2 9.36 8.39 40.44 0.04 5110 8.2
Birla Sun Life Income Plus - DAP 15.78 06-Mar-2009 3443.91 28.94 47.31 28.94 20.94 16.16 9.77 8.06 41.39 0.05 N.A 8.21
Birla Sun Life Income Plus - Reg - G 62.54 21-Oct-1995 3443.91 28.96 47.32 28.94 20.94 16.16 9.75 9.98 41.39 0.05 N.A 8.21
UTI Bond Fund - Growth 41.58 04-May-1998 2229.83 26.06 49.3 30.54 19.84 16.09 10.28 8.89 31.7 0.07 4026.17 N.A
Reliance Dynamic Bond Fund - Growth 18.89 16-Nov-2004 4142.52 31.8 55.01 32.14 20.7 15.67 10.51 6.42 36 0.07 5529.75 8.34
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 6M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Birla Sun Life Dynamic Bond Fund - Ret - G 24.14 24-Sep-2004 9638.23 19.42 39.34 26.13 18.63 15.38 10.86 8.90 23.56 0.15 N.A 8.30
Birla Sun Life Treasury Optimizer Plan - DAP 158.84 22-Jun-2009 2459.69 17.09 27.50 19.02 14.16 13.03 10.36 8.63 7.89 0.42 N.A 8.59
Birla Sun Life Tre. Optimizer Plan - Ret - G 257.28 19-Apr-2002 2459.69 17.11 27.49 18.98 14.14 13.10 10.58 7.68 7.85 0.45 N.A 8.59
Franklin India STIP - Growth 2830.14 31-Jan-2002 9904.35 19.30 23.20 17.32 13.21 12.07 10.42 8.34 12.65 0.24 1018.35 10.71
IDFC SSIF - MTP - Plan F - Growth 15.29 10-Feb-2010 2200.48 15.64 24.29 16.51 13.06 11.15 9.30 8.95 16.55 0.09 1460.00 8.71
IDFC SSIF - MTP - Reg - Growth 23.26 08-Jul-2003 2200.48 15.45 24.11 16.33 12.87 10.87 8.90 7.58 16.57 0.07 1460.00 8.71
DSP BlackRock Banking & PSU Debt Fund - Reg - G 11.57 14-Sep-2013 288.01 24.86 33.16 21.25 12.67 11.42 N.A 11.34 9.20 0.38 1643.30 8.55
Annualised
Returns (%) Risk Average Yield tillScheme Name NAV Launch QAAUM Since Std. Sharpe Maturity (Days) Maturity
1W 2W 1M 3M 1Y 3Y(`) Date (`Cr.) Launch Dev.
Franklin India Low Duration Fund - G 15.10 26-Jul-2010 2721.32 13.46 14.20 12.00 10.19 10.32 9.99 9.60 4.14 0.59 368.65 10.16
ICICI Prude. Ultra Short Term Plan - Ret - G 15.06 12-Jun-2009 2251.73 11.49 12.94 10.73 9.41 9.61 8.89 7.56 6.39 0.25 198.12 8.57
LIC Nomura MF Savings Plus Fund - G 21.15 29-May-2003 530.81 10.84 12.98 10.32 9.35 8.72 8.53 6.64 3.52 0.34 505.00 8.73
ICICI Prudential Savings Fund - Plan A - G 206.19 29-Jul-2004 3070.72 9.56 12.13 10.57 9.27 9.12 8.77 7.14 3.56 0.41 228.03 9.13
Birla Sun Life Savings Fund - Ret - G 256.06 27-Nov-2001 10908.80 9.61 9.98 9.08 9.17 9.62 9.44 7.41 4.02 0.50 N.A 8.85
Birla Sun Life Floa. Rate Fund - LTP - Ret - G 238.32 05-Jun-2003 1045.73 8.45 9.86 8.75 9.10 9.52 9.58 7.75 3.88 0.53 N.A 8.63
Tata Treasury Manager Fund - RIP - G 1799.15 13-Jul-2007 266.59 9.30 10.64 9.43 9.09 8.99 8.86 8.11 5.39 0.27 251.85 8.64
Annualised
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SMC Participating in Two Day National Conference " Rising To The Challenges - Redefining Our Role" Organized by ICAI at Birla Auditorium, Jaipur
SMC participating in Pravasi Bhartiya Divas and Vibrant Gujarat held between 7-13 January at Gandhinagar, Gujarat.
Mr. S C Aggarwal (CMD, SMC Group) during “Summit-cum-Awards on Skilling India” organized by Assocham at Hotel Le-Meridien, New Delhi
• ZEE Business Market Analyst Awards 2014
WIDE RANGE OF FINANCIAL PRODUCTS & SERVICES
INDIA'S BESTMARKET ANALYST
COMMODITIES FUNDAMENTAL