2015 200 weekly economic briefing emerging markets...china small cap index shenzen composite index...

1 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: [email protected]

2 Jul 2015 Weekly Economic Briefing

Emerging Markets China: Into the bear trap

Further declines in Chinese stock prices have taken the key indices into bear market

territory. Given strong evidence that prices had entered 'bubble' territory, the sell-off

could have considerably further to go: additional declines of 30-40% would be needed to

restore valuations to their long-term averages. The macroeconomic fallout will be limited

by low levels of stock ownership, but is unlikely to be negligible.

Ownership of shares among households in China is relatively low but has expanded rapidly,

fuelled by credit. Margin loans outstanding are very high at around 9% of the estimated free

float of the combined exchanges risking inducing forced sales. A further steep sell-off could

damage consumer and business confidence.

Having encouraged the bubble to form, Chinese policymakers are now in a tough spot –

monetary policy was loosened further last weekend but this may not be enough to stabilise the

market. Interest rates may have to rapidly follow equity prices lower.

Chinese stocks enter bear market…

From their mid-June peaks, Chinese stocks have now

slumped into a bear market with the Shanghai and

Shenzhen markets down 20-25% early this week.

This abrupt decline follows a steep increase over the

previous twelve months which we argued in previous

pieces in December 2014 and April 2015 was

unconnected to economic fundamentals and had distinct

bubble-like characteristics.

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15

China: Stock market indicesIndex, Jan 1 2014=100

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics

Shenzhen

Shanghai (A-shares)

Our concerns about the nature of China’s stock market

rally stemmed from a number of factors:

The rally had taken off despite a steep slowdown

in economic growth and evidence of declining

corporate profitability

A number of sectors including small caps were

exhibiting very stretched valuations

The surge in stocks was accompanied by a very

rapid increase in individual accounts, including

explosive growth in margin trading accounts

A large share of new market entrants had low

levels of education.

Overall, many of the classic elements of a speculative

mania appeared to be present.

…and could drop further…

It is easy to see the sell-off extending further. In the last

ten bear markets on the Shanghai composite, the

average decline in prices from peak to trough has been

34%, with an average 40% decline over the last five.

Moreover, the drop to date has only reversed a modest

part of the run-up in prices – both main indices more than

doubled in the year to mid-June.

mailto:[email protected]

https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publications/283350

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2 Jul 2015

Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: [email protected]

Emerging Markets

As a result, many valuation measures still look stretched.

The ratio of total stock market capitalisation to GDP is

just below 90% (having peaked at over 100%), compared

to an average since 2002 of 51%.

-80 -60 -40 -20 0

Dec-96

May-Jul 97

May-Aug 98

Jun-Dec 99

Jun-01 to Jan-02

Apr-04 to Jul-05

Oct-07 to Oct-08

Aug-Sep 09

Apr-Jul 10

Apr-11 to Nov-12

Jun-15

China: Shanghai composite bear markets% decline, peak to trough


Average of last 10, -34.3%

Average of last 5, -40.6%

The Shanghai composite index price/earnings and price

to book value ratios are below long-run averages but this

is distorted by a few large stocks with low valuations,

especially banks. The median (rather than market

capitalisation-weighted) price/earnings ratio is over 50,

more than double the level seen in economies such as

the US and Japan.

0 20 40 60 80 100

MSCI EM

Korea

Germany

Shanghai weighted

US

Japan

Shanghai median

Shenzen weighted

Shenzen median

World: P/E ratiosPrice/earnings ratio


Meanwhile, conventional price/book and price/earnings

ratios for the Shanghai small cap index and the Shenzen

composite index are still very elevated and some 40-70%

above their long-term averages. For all three Chinese

indexes, price to book and price/earnings ratios are well

above the MSCI emerging market averages (by 40-60%

for the Shanghai composite index).

This analysis implies that prices might need to fall a

further 30-40% to restore valuations to around their long-

term levels.

Certainly the kinds of extreme run-ups in share prices

which we have seen in China in the last year rarely end

well. The last time the Chinese market capitalisation/GDP

ratio breached 100% (in 2007), stock market

capitalisation slumped by two-thirds the following year.

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Shanghai Composite Index

China Small Cap Index

Shenzen Composite Index

MSCI EM Index

China: Price-to-book ratio

Source : Oxford Economics/Bloomberg

5 day moving average *

There are other warnings from history elsewhere in Asia.

Falls in stock prices of 40% and more occurred in several

countries after the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000-01,

following a rapid run-up and increasingly stretched

valuations in the preceding years.

The case of Taiwan may be especially relevant, with two

major reversals in just over a decade. An equity mania

saw the market rise by a factor of fifteen in 1985-90

before collapsing by 67% in less than a year. A further

Taiwanese equity surge in the late 1990s saw the market

double, only to collapse by 54% in 2000-01.

The latter episode in Taiwan also featured a high level of

margin financing and there must also be a risk that the

elevated level of margin financing now seen in China

creates a downward spiral of lower share prices, forced

sales to cover margin calls, and still lower share prices.

The level of margin debt outstanding is now around

RMB2.3 trillion (US$370 billion), accounting for around

3% of total stock market capitalisation. But this

understates the importance of margin financing because

a large part (around 60%) of China’s stock indices are

not ‘free float’ due to high state ownership: margin loans

outstanding account for more like 9% of the free-float

capitalisation of the main indices.


3 3

2 Jul 2015


Emerging Markets

Margin debt outstanding has soared by a factor of five

over the last year and risen by over 40% since April –

implying that the recent fall in equity prices may already

be causing difficulties for late entrants to the market,

especially given the short average holding period of

stocks (as low as 14 days by some estimates).

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

US China June2014

Taiwan 1998 China June2015

World: Margin debt for equity purchases% of free float capitalisation

Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/Bloomberg

Moreover, margin debt looks extremely high in

international comparison: the share of margin debt/free

float capitalisation is more than triple the level in the US

and is higher even than the 6% level seen in Taiwan in

the late 1990s – believed to be the highest level seen in

recent decades.

…with possible negative economic impact

How concerned should we be about the macroeconomic

impact of a steep decline in Chinese stock prices? The

optimistic view would emphasise the relatively low level

of equity holdings of Chinese households, and argue that

any negative wealth effects would be small.

Property

Other non-fin.

Deposits

Bank WMP

Equity

Insurance

Funds

Trust

Other fin.

China: Household wealth, 2014RMB trillion

Source : Oxford Economics/Credit Suisse

Figures on household balance sheets are sketchy but the

available data suggest that the bulk of Chinese

household wealth (around 60% at end-2014) is still

concentrated in non-financial assets, mostly property.

Within financial assets, deposits dominate with equity

holdings around 12% of the total. Survey evidence also

suggests that only around 10-12% of Chinese

households hold shares.

As of end-2014 these shareholdings were worth around

RMB11 trillion, a value that may now have grown to

around RMB16 trillion based on stock market

performance in the meantime. This refers to direct equity

holdings only. Indirect holdings through insurance, and

trust and wealth management products may add perhaps

RMB4-5 trillion.

Expressed as a share of estimated household disposable

income for 2015, Chinese household equity holdings are

thus around 40% or perhaps 50% with indirect holdings

added in. This is well below the levels seen in the US

(around 100%) and Japan and Korea (around 60%). In

the US and other advanced economies, indirect holdings

through mutual fund shares and pensions are also

substantial.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

China Japan Taiwan (2000) US

World: Direct equity holdings of households% of disposable income

Source : Oxford Economics/CSRC/Haver Analytics

Chinese household equity holdings are therefore

moderate compared to other economies, but not

insignificant. A 30% further drop in the market would be

equivalent to around RMB6 trillion of wealth losses. If we

assume a marginal propensity to consume out of

financial wealth of 5% this would imply consumer

spending might decline around 1%.

There are also a number of other channels by which

falling share prices could still damage the Chinese

economy:


4 4

2 Jul 2015


Emerging Markets

Leverage: margin debt itself accounts for around 3.5% of

Chinese GDP so even a chunky default rate on this

resulting from a share price collapse will not inflict very

substantial financial damage. However, there are

reasons for believing that other credit sources (e.g.

entrusted loans) have also been used to finance share

purchases over the last year which could increase the

risks.

Corporate wealth effects: Chinese firms are large

purchasers of shares and a steep decline in their value

may lead to a negative reaction in terms of corporate

spending. Recently IPO issuance has also been heavy

but this would likely dry up with a big further fall in share

prices, reducing the scope for firms to raise funds for

investment.

Spillovers to the property market: Chinese property

firms’ shares have been among the bigger gainers from

the rally of the last year – despite the difficulties in the

real estate sector. Sharp declines in their share prices

may add to existing financing problems and damage the

real estate sector further, dragging down GDP growth.

Damage to the financial sector: the boom in the equity

markets appears to have resulted in strong growth in the

financial sector; this sector reportedly grew over 15%

year-on-year in Q1. An intensified bear market would

mean a slump in turnover and commissions (as well as

possible losses on margin loans) and a much-reduced

contribution to GDP from the financial sector.

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

China: Consumer indicatorsIndex


Westpac consumer confidence (LHS)

Passenger car sales (RHS)

% year, 3m average

Consumer confidence: despite the likely absence of

substantial wealth effects, slumping share prices could

still damage household consumption by hitting consumer

confidence – especially among wealthier households who

account for a disproportionate share of consumer

spending (the top 10% of households account for around

60% of total household income and 70% of investment

income). On the Westpac measure, consumer

confidence has already been trending downwards for

some time and another key indicator, passenger car

sales, was notably weak in May. An implosion in the

equity market could add to the downward pressure on

confidence even if the direct financial impact on most

households is limited.

What do the authorities do now?

The sharp decline in Chinese equity prices in recent days

puts the authorities in an awkward position. The

preceding boom was encouraged by them, in part

perhaps to try to offset the negative wealth effects

coming from a weakening property market. But their

encouragement appears to have fuelled a degree of

speculative excess that could now create a very severe

market correction.

The monetary easing moves by the PBoC over the

weekend – the most decisive seen in the current phase

of policy loosening – will surely have been partly

prompted by the sell-off in equities. If so, the omens so

far are mixed, with share prices continuing to fall in the

first session after the monetary policy moves but rallying

in the second. There is a risk that the decline in equity

prices now has a momentum that will be hard to arrest. If

so, then interest rates may have to rapidly follow equity

prices lower and risks to our GDP forecasts are even

more skewed to the downside.

For further information contact Adam Slater

([email protected]) or Alessandro

Theiss ([email protected])


http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publications/308407

http://www.oxfordeconomics.com/my-oxford/publications/308407

5 5

2 Jul 2015


Emerging Markets

Latest data

Recent Data Releases

Previous month Latest Comment

China –Official Manufacturing PMI

– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

50.2 (May)

49.2

50.2 (Jun)

49.4

Manufacturing continues to stagnate by the standards of recent years – so the background for the rest of the region remains weak.

Brazil – HSBC Manufacturing PMI

– Exports (Jun)

– Trade balance (12m total)

– Industrial output (May, s.adj)

45.9 (May)

-19.2% y/y

-$1.5bn (May)

-1.2% m/m

-7.7% y/y

46.5 (Jun)

-4.1% y/y

$0.7bn (Jun)

0.6% m/m

-6.2% y/y

Manufacturing PMI remained deep in contraction territory and other recent surveys continue to point to a bleak outlook. Y/y fall in exports not as great in June as in recent months, helped by bounce in iron ore price (though this may not last given rising supply).

Russia – HSBC Manuf. PMI 47.6 (May) 48.7 (Jun) Policy easing should help promote modest recovery in 2016 after deep recession this year

India – HSBC Manufacturing PMI 52.6 (May) 51.3 (Jun) Monthly data remain patchy.

Korea – Exports, US$ (Jun)


– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun)

– Industrial output ex construction

(May, s.adj)

– Retail sales vol. (May, s.adj)

– CPI (Jun)

-10.9% y/y

$69.1bn (May)

47.8

-1.3% m/m

-2.5% y/y

1.4% m/m

5.0% y/y

0.5% y/y

-1.8% y/y

$74.0bn (Jun)

46.1

-1.3% m/m

-1.3% y/y

0.0% m/m

3.7% y/y

0.7% y/y

Miserable PMI reading in June suggests that the trend in manufacturing and exports remains weak, notwithstanding smaller y/y fall in exports for the same month. In Q2 as a whole estimated seas. adj. exports (in US$ terms) were down 4.5% q/q – the worst performance since the global crisis. The weakness of shipments is forcing cuts in output as inventories are already high. Retail sales in June are likely to be hit by MERS outbreak.

Mexico – Exports (US$)

– Imports (US$)

– Trade Balance (12m tot)

– Unemployment (May, s.adj)

-1.5% y/y (Apr)

1.3% y/y (Apr)

-$4.7bn (Apr)

4.35%

-7.4% y/y (May)

-3.8% y/y (May)

-$5.9bn (May)

4.37%

Non-auto manufacturing exports appear to have been very weak in May – registering their first y/y decline since the end of 2013. On the positive side, unemployment is noticeably lower than a year ago.

Turkey – Exports (May)


-0.9% y/y

-$80.3bn (Apr)

-15.2% y/y

-$80.0bn (May)

Exports fell very sharply in May; sales to the US were down y/y for 1

st time since early 2014.

Thailand – Exports (US$)

– Current acc. balance (12m tot)

– Industrial output (May)

– Consumption indicator (May)

– Private investment (May)

-1.8% y/y (Apr)

$18.1bn

-7.7% y/y

-0.8% y/y

0.7% y/y

-5.5% y/y (May)

$21.5bn

-6.9% y/y

-0.8% y/y

-0.4% y/y

The Thai economy remains very subdued. Though both industrial output and consumption rose m/m in May, they remained down in y/y terms. In April/May industrial output was over 6% lower than in Q1, while imports continue to slump – suggesting weak domestic demand.

Argentina – GDP (Q1, s. adj.)

– Consumer spending

– Investment

– Export volumes

– Current account (4Q total)

0.3% q/q (Q4)

0.6% y/y

-0.7% y/y

-8.3% y/y

-1.8% y/y

-$5.6bn (Q4)

0.2% q/q (Q1)

1.3% y/y

0.8% y/y

0.3% y/y

-1.2% y/y

-$6.0bn (Q1)

Both consumer spending and investment rose q/q in Q1, for the first time since mid-2013. But this is unlikely to be sustainable as import volumes bounced in response, adding to the pressure on the balance of payments already coming from declining export revenues. Real government consumption was up 8.5% y/y.



2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets

Events

Monetary policy meetings in past week

Key rate (now) Outcome Comment

Jun 27th – China 4.85% (1-year

lending rate) Down 25bp The PBoC cut both the lending rate and the

seven-day reverse repo rate to new lows of 4.85% and 2.7%, respectively. In addition, it selectively lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratios. This is the most decisive easing by the PBoC since the global financial crisis. In our view, the latest easing is likely to have been triggered by the sharp sell-off in the stock market. But the market may already have entered a downward spiral that cannot be halted by interest rate cuts.

Jul 1st – Romania 1.75% (Policy

rate) Unchanged A steady relaxation of monetary policy was

implemented between last August and May 2015, cutting the policy rate by 175bp to 1.75%. Bank lending is still subdued but domestic demand has been growing robustly over the last year. CPI inflation started to edge up in March-May, but was still below the floor of the 1.5-3.5% target range and the cut to VAT on food will lower inflation in the coming months. We expect interest rates will be left unchanged throughout the rest of this year and gradually raised during 2016.




Asia

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

US$bn (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Haver Analytics

Korea: Exports

35

40

45

50

55

60

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

50 = expansion / contraction line

Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing / Markit

China: Manufacturing PMI

Official PMI

HSBC PMI

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

32

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014



Emerging Asia: Exports by destination

China & HK

US

Leading EU

Japan

Exports of Korea, Thailand and Taiwan

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2005=100 (seasonally adjusted)

Taiwan

Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics

Korea, Taiwan & Thailand: Industrial output

Thailand

Korea

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

%

Korea


Emerging Asia: Short-term interest rates

China

India

Thailand

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15

Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China


Emergers: Equity markets

India

Indonesia

Korea




Asia

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

China


Emergers: Exchange rates v US$

India

Indonesia

Korea

appreciation

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

%

Policy interest rate

Source: Bank Indonesia

Indonesia: Interest rates & CPI inflation

CPI inflation

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% year (3 month moving average)


Thailand: Tourism arrivals

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)

Malaysia



Thailand

Philippines

Singapore

appreciation

40

45

50

55

60

65

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

50 = expansion/contraction breakeven point

Source: Markit

India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% year (3 month average)

Source: Oxford Economics

India: Manufacturing & electricity output

Manufacturing

Electricity




Latin America

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

% year


Latin America: Goods' exports (US$)

3 month moving average

Mexico

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

points

Source: FGV / Haver Analytics

Brazil: Manufacturing confidence index

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% (seasonally adjusted)


Latin America: Unemployment rate

Brazil (estimated)

Mexico

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Index (seasonally adjusted, 2013=100)


Latin America: Imports of goods

Argentina

Mexico

Brazil

Chile

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US$ bn


Venezuela: Foreign exchange reserves

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110


Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)

Chile



Brazil

depreciation

Argentina

Mexico




Emerging Europe

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

%

Czech


Central & Eastern Europe: Interest rates

Poland

Hungary

Romania

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Index (H1 2008 = 100)


Central Europe: Industrial output

Hungary

Slovak

Czech

Poland

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

% balance (unweighted averages of Czech, Slovak, Poland & Hungary)

Source: Haver Analytics / Eurostat

Central & Eastern Europe: Confidence

Industrial confidence (LHS)

Consumer confidence (RHS)

85

88

91

94

97

100

103

106

109


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)


Emergers: Exchange rates v Euro

Poland

Hungary

depreciation

Czech

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120


Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)


Russia & Ukraine: Exchange rate v US$

depreciation

Hryvnia per US$

Ruble per US$

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24


%


Russia: Short-term interest rates

Interbank rate (31 to 90 days)

1-week repo rate

%

10 year bond yield




Rest of World

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

% year

Households


South Africa: Bank lending

Non-households

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015


Exports


Turkey: Merchandise trade

Imports

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13


%


Turkey: Interest rates

3-month interbank rate

10-year bond yield

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

50 = expansion / contraction line


South Africa: PMI

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


%EU Emerging Europe


Emergers: 10 year government bond yields

All emergers

Asia

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

2007=100 (rebased)


World: Commodity prices

Oil

CRB foodstuffs

CRB raw industrial materials

Copper




China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland

2014

May 8.8 -2.5 -0.6 5.6 2.4 2.8 3.6 6.7 2.2

Jun 9.2 -7.6 2.0 4.3 2.0 0.4 1.3 7.6 2.0

Jul 9.0 -3.3 3.9 0.9 1.9 1.5 3.3 6.8 2.4

Aug 6.9 -3.0 -1.5 0.5 1.9 0.0 4.5 8.2 0.5

Sep 8.0 -4.7 0.8 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.6 8.5 2.0

Oct 7.7 -3.2 -2.7 -2.7 2.4 2.9 2.7 8.3 1.8

Nov 7.2 -4.8 -1.9 5.2 2.5 -0.4 0.8 7.9 0.3

Dec 7.9 -3.8 -0.5 3.6 2.0 3.9 2.3 6.1 5.7

2015

Jan 6.8 -4.9 -3.5 2.8 1.4 0.9 -1.2 5.6 4.0

Feb 6.8 -6.4 0.2 4.9 1.7 -1.6 1.1 5.2 4.8

Mar 5.6 -6.9 -1.3 2.5 1.6 -0.6 4.7 7.7 5.7

Apr 5.9 -7.7 -2.5 4.1 1.1 -4.5 3.5 1.7 2.8

May 6.1 -6.2 -1.3 - - -5.5 - -1.1 5.3

Industrial Production

Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated


2014

Jun 2.3 6.5 1.7 6.8 3.8 7.8 9.2 1.6 0.3

Jul 2.3 6.5 1.6 7.4 4.1 7.5 9.3 1.8 -0.2

Aug 2.0 6.5 1.4 7.0 4.1 7.6 9.5 2.1 -0.3

Sep 1.6 6.7 1.1 5.6 4.2 8.0 8.9 0.7 -0.3

Oct 1.6 6.6 1.2 4.6 4.3 8.3 9.0 1.1 -0.6

Nov 1.4 6.6 1.0 3.3 4.2 9.1 9.2 0.9 -0.6

Dec 1.5 6.4 0.8 4.3 4.1 11.4 8.2 0.6 -1.0

2015

Jan 0.8 7.1 0.8 5.2 3.1 15.0 7.2 -0.9 -1.4

Feb 1.4 7.7 0.5 5.4 3.0 16.7 7.5 -0.2 -1.6

Mar 1.4 8.1 0.4 5.3 3.1 16.9 7.6 -0.6 -1.5

Apr 1.5 8.2 0.4 4.9 3.1 16.4 7.9 -0.8 -1.1

May 1.2 8.5 0.5 5.0 2.9 15.8 8.1 -0.7 -0.9

Jun - - 0.7 - - - - - -

Consumer prices






2014

Jun 7.2 -3.2 2.4 7.6 4.8 -2.7 4.4 1.2 8.6

Jul 14.5 10.7 5.2 -0.3 5.9 5.7 8.6 5.7 10.2

Aug 9.4 -4.5 -0.4 1.6 3.5 -2.5 -1.6 9.5 -1.1

Sep 15.3 -5.9 6.3 2.1 3.9 -15.0 -0.2 4.6 2.3

Oct 11.6 -19.7 2.3 -5.2 7.9 -4.4 2.0 0.6 -2.7

Nov 4.7 -25.0 -2.7 9.4 4.0 -21.5 -4.4 3.5 -4.5

Dec 9.7 -16.1 3.1 -1.0 3.6 -22.5 -3.2 -2.9 -6.3

2015

Jan -3.3 -14.5 -1.0 -9.4 2.2 -29.7 -1.8 3.4 -10.8

Feb 48.2 -24.1 -3.3 -13.8 -2.5 -19.5 -5.3 -6.7 -8.2

Mar -15.0 -3.7 -4.5 -21.3 -1.4 -30.3 -13.5 -8.9 -10.8

Apr -6.4 -23.2 -8.0 -14.8 -1.5 -33.9 -0.9 -11.7 -14.8

May -2.5 -19.2 -10.9 -20.2 -7.4 - -15.2 -3.8 -

Jun - -4.1 -1.8 - - - - - -

Exports (US dollars)



2014

Jun 5.5 -3.8 4.3 8.6 6.5 -5.3 -3.4 7.4 11.8

Jul -1.6 -5.5 5.7 4.5 4.1 -3.5 -3.5 9.3 11.5

Aug -2.4 -4.5 2.9 1.2 6.9 -10.9 -1.8 13.9 0.8

Sep 6.9 9.0 7.6 26.5 3.9 -9.5 -3.2 -0.1 3.4

Oct 4.6 -15.4 -3.3 3.7 7.6 -12.5 -7.5 -1.5 -1.9

Nov -6.8 -5.6 -4.1 26.4 9.7 -22.5 2.9 5.0 -3.1

Dec -2.5 -5.6 -1.0 -3.6 8.2 -24.6 -8.9 -12.3 -1.2

2015

Jan -19.9 -16.0 -11.7 -11.7 1.5 -40.5 -10.5 -4.7 -16.3

Feb -20.5 -17.3 -19.6 -16.0 -1.2 -35.2 -6.9 -22.4 -14.6

Mar -12.7 -5.6 -15.5 -13.5 -0.6 -36.8 -8.9 -17.7 -15.5

Apr -16.2 -23.7 -17.8 -7.9 1.3 -40.8 -11.5 -22.1 -16.0

May -17.6 -30.1 -15.4 -16.5 -3.8 - -11.6 -5.4 -

Jun - -16.7 -13.6 - - - - - -

Imports (US dollars)



2015 200 weekly economic briefing emerging markets...china small cap index shenzen composite index...

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