2014 midterm election guide - williams &...

2014 Midterm Election Guide

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

1

Williams & Jensen Election Guide

Table of Contents

2

Page 3: What’s at Stake?

Page 4: Battle for the Senate

Page 5: “Toss-Up” House Races

Page 6: Democratic Seats—

Open Seats

“Lean” and “Likely” Democratic Seats

Page 7: Republican Seats—

Open Seats

“Lean” and “Likely” Republican Seats

Pages 8 – 9: “Solid” Democratic Seats

Pages 10- 12: “Solid” Republican Seats

Page 13: “Toss up” Governors’ Races

Page 14: Voting Information

Page 15: 2016 Look Ahead

www.williamsandjensen.com

What’s at Stake?

In the battle for the Senate, Democrats are defending 21 Senate seats (including 1

special election) while Republicans have 15 seats up for re-election (including 2 special

elections). Republicans need a net gain of 6 seats to take control of the chamber.

Open Seats

There are 8 open Senate seats (5 Democrats / 3 Republicans).

According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans are favored to win at least 3

Democratic open seats (Montana, South Dakota, West Virginia).

Iowa and Georgia are considered “toss up” races, and Michigan is rated “Leans D”.

Nebraska and Oklahoma are rated “Solid” Republican seats.

Toss Up Races

There are 3 Republican seats and 6 Democratic seats rated as “toss up.”

Which party controls the Senate is likely to be determined by toss-up races:

Alaska (D), Arkansas (D), Colorado (D), Georgia* (R), Iowa (D), Kansas (R), Louisiana*

(D), and North Carolina (D).

*Runoff elections will be required if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote. The Louisiana

runoff would be Dec. 6 and the Georgia runoff would be held Jan. 6, 2015.

The Senate

The House

The current House composition is 233 Republicans; 199 Democrats; and 3 Vacancies (2

Democratic seats/1 Republican seat). Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to win

control of the chamber and Republicans are expected to hold their majority.

The Cook Political Report has the following ratings:

“Solid” Seats: 210 Republicans, 161 Democrats

“Likely/Lean” Seats: 18 Republicans, 24 Democrats

“Toss Up” Seats: 6 Republicans, 16 Democrats

Republicans are expected to pick up seats in Democratic open seats UT-4 and NC-07;

Democrats are likely to pick up a Republican open seat in CA-31.

3

williamsandjensen.com

All race ratings are based on Oct. 24 Cook Political Report.

Battle for the Senate

Current Composition: 55 Democrats/Independents 45 Republicans Up for Grabs: 33 seats (20 Democrats/13 Republicans); 8 open seats (5 Democrats/3 Republicans) Additionally, there are 3 special elections: Hawaii (D), Oklahoma (R) and South Carolina (R) The GOP needs to pick up 6 seats to flip the Senate; and is expected to pick up seats in MT, SD, & WV

“Safe” Incumbent Seats

State Incumbent Cook Report

Outcome

AL Jeff Sessions Solid R

DE Chris Coons Solid D

HI Brian Schatz Solid D

ID Mike Risch Solid R

IL Dick Durbin Solid D

MA Ed Markey Solid D

ME Susan Collins Solid R

MN Al Franken Likely D

MS Thad Cochran Likely R

NJ Cory Booker Solid D

NM Tom Udall Solid D

OR Jeff Merkley Likely D

RI Jack Reed Solid D

SC Tim Scott

Lindsey Graham

Solid R

Solid R

TN Lamar Alexander Solid R

VA Mark Warner Likely D

WY Mike Enzi Solid R

4

williamsandjensen.com

Open Senate Seats

State Republican Candidate

Democratic Candidate

Current Seat

Outcome

GA David Perdue Michelle Nunn R

IA Joni Ernst Bruce Braley D

MI Terri Lynn Land Gary Peters D

MT Steve Daines Amanda Curtis D

NE Ben Sasse David Domina R

OK James Lankford Connie Johnson R

SD Mike Rounds Rick Weiland

Larry Pressler (I) D

WV Shelley Moore

Capito Natalie Tennant D

"Toss-Up" Democratic Seats

State Incumbent Challenger Outcome

AK Mark Begich Dan Sullivan (R)

AR Mark Pryor Tom Cotton (R)

CO Mark Udall Cory Gardner (R)

LA Mary Landrieu Rob Maness (R) Bill Cassidy (R)

NC Kay Hagan Thom Tillis (R)

NH Jeanne Shaheen Scott Brown (R)

“Toss-Up” Republican Seats

State Incumbent Challenger Outcome

KS Pat Roberts Greg Orman (I)

KY Mitch McConnell Allison Grimes (D)

*Based on Oct. 24 Cook Political Report Ratings *Incumbents in bold, italics

House Battlegrounds

There are 47 open seats in the 2014 midterm elections as a result of retirements, lost primary elections, and vacant seats. 19 of the open seats are currently held by Democrats, and 28 by Republicans. Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to take control of the House. The Cook Political Report has 16 Democratic races rated as “toss up or worse” and 6 Republican races. Republicans are expected to pick up 3 open Democratic seats: NC-07; NY-21; and UT-04; Democrats are expected to win the Republican seat in CA-31.

“Toss Up” House Races*

District Republican Democrat Current

Seat

Outcome

AR-02 OPEN French Hill Patrick Henry Hays R

AZ-1 Andy Tobin Ann Kirkpatrick D

AZ-2 Martha McSally Ron Barber D

CA-07 Doug Ose Ami Bera D

CA-26 Jeff Gorell Julia Brownley D

CA-52 Carl DeMaio Scott Peters D

FL-02 Steve Southerland Gwen Graham R

FL-26 Carlos Curbelo Joe Garcia D

GA-12 Rick Allen John Barrow D

IA-03 OPEN

David Young Staci Appel R

IL-10 Robert Dold Brad Schneider D

IL-12 Mike Bost Bill Enyart D

ME-02 OPEN Bruce Poliquin Emily Cain D

MN-08 Stewart Mills Rick Nolan D

NE-02 Lee Terry Brad Ashford R

NH-01 Frank Guinta Carol Shea-Porter D

NY-11 Michael Grimm Domenic Recchia R

WV-03 Evan Jenkins Nick Rahall D


5 www.williamsandjensen.com

House Battlegrounds-Democrats

*Based on Oct. 24 Cook Political Report Ratings

6


2014 Open Seats—Democrats

District Democrat Republican Cook Rating Outcome

AZ-07 Ruben Gallego Brianna Wasserman Solid D

CA-11 Mark DeSaulnier Tue Phan Solid D

CA-33 Ted Lieu Elan Carr Solid D

CA-35 Christina Gagnier; Norma Torres N/A Solid D

HI-01 Mark Takai Charles Djou Likely D

IA-01 Pat Murphy Rod Blum Lean D

MA-06 Seth Moultan Richard Tisei Lean D

ME-02 Bruce Poliquin Emily Cain Toss Up

MI-12 Debbie Dingell Terry Bowman Solid D

MI-14 Brenda Lawrence Christina Conyers Solid D

NC-07 Jonathan Barfield David Rouzer Likely R

NC-12 VACANT Alma Adams Vince Coakley Solid D

NJ-01 VACANT Donald Norcross Garry Cobb Solid D

NJ-12 Bonnie Coleman Alieta Eck Solid D

NY-04 Kathleen Rice Bruce Blakeman Likely D

NY-21 Aaron Woolf Elise Stefanik Lean R

PA-13 Brendan Boyle Carson Adcock Solid D

UT-04 Doug Owens Mia Love Likely R

VA-08 Don Beyer Micah Edmond Solid D

Lean / Likely Democratic Seats*

District Incumbent Republican Candidate Cook Rating Outcome

AZ-09 Kyrsten Sinema Wendy Rogers Lean D

CA-03 John Garamendi Dan Logue Likely D

CA-24 Lois Capps Chris Mitchum Likely D

CA-36 Raul Ruiz Brian Nestande Lean D

CT-05 Elizabeth Esty Mark Greenberg Likely D

FL-18 Patrick Murphy Carl Domino Likely D

IA-02 Dave Loebsack Mariannette Miller-Meeks Lean D

IL-08 Tammy Duckworth Lawrence Kaifesh Likely D

IL-11 Bill Foster Darlene Senger Likely D

IL-17 Cheri Bustos Bobby Schilling Lean D

MA-09 William Keating John Chapman Likely D

MN-01 Tim Walz Jim Hagedorn Likely D

MN-07 Collin Peterson Stewart Mills Lean D

NH-02 Ann McLane Kuster Marilinda Garcia Lean D

NV-04 Steven Horsford Cresent Hardy Leans D

NY-01 Tim Bishop Lee Zeldin Lean D

NY-18 Sean Patrick Maloney Nan Hayworth Lean D

NY-24 Dan Maffei John Katko Lean D

TX-23 Pete Gallego Will Hurd Lean D

WA-01 Suzan DelBene Pedro Celis Likely D

Democratic open seats by the #s Not Running for Re-Election: 16 Lost Primary: 1 Vacant Seats: 2

House Battlegrounds-Republicans


7


2014 Open Seats—Republican

District Republican Democrat Cook Rating Outcome

AL-06 Gary Palmer Avery Vise Solid R

AR-02 French Hill Patrick Henry Hays Toss Up

AR-04 Bruce Westerman James Lee Witt Lean R

CA-25 Steve Knight; Tony Strickland N/A Solid R

CA-31 Paul Chabot Pete Aguilar Lean D

CA-45 Mimi Walters Drew Leavens Solid R

CO-04 Ken Buck Vic Meyers Solid R

GA-01 Buddy Carter Brian Reese Solid R

GA-10 Jody Hice Ken Dious Solid R

GA-11 Barry Loudermilk N/A Solid R

LA-06 Garret Graves, Dan Claitor,

Paul Dietzel II Edwin Edwards

Richard Lieberman Solid R

MI-04 John Moolenar Jeff Holmes Solid R

MI-08 Mike Bishop Eric Schertzing Solid R

MI-11 Dave Trott Bobby McKenzie Likely R

MN-06 Tom Emmer Joe Perske Solid R

MT-AL Ryan Zinke John Lewis Likely R

NC-06 Bradley Walker Laura Fjeld Solid R

NC-07 David Rouzer Jonathan Barfield Likely R

NJ-03 Tom MacArthur Aimee Belgard Lean R

OK-05 Steve Russell Al McAffrey Solid R

PA-06 Ryan Costello Manan Trivedi Likely R

TX-04 John Ratcliffe N/A Solid R

TX-36 Brian Babin Michael Cole Solid R

VA-07 Dave Brat Jack Trammell Solid R

VA-10 Barbara Comstock John Foust Lean R

WA-04 Clint Didier; Dan Newhouse N/A Solid R

WI-06 Glenn Grothman Mark Harris Likely R

WV-02 Alex Mooney Nick Casey Lean R

Republican open seats by the #s Not Running for Re-Election: 25 Lost Primary: 3 Vacant Seats: 1

Lean / Likely Republican Seats*

District Incumbent Democratic Candidate Cook Rating Outcome

CA-21 David Valadao Amanda Renteria Likely R

CO-06 Mike Coffman Andrew Romanoff Lean R

IA-04 Steve King Jim Mowrer Likely R

IL-13 Rodney Davis Ann Callis Likely R

KS-02 Lynn Jenkins Margie Wakefield Likely R

KS-03 Kevin Yoder Kelly Kultala Likely R

MI-01 Dan Benishek Jerry Cannon Likely R

ND-AL Kevin Cramer George B. Sinner Likely R

NV-03 Joe Heck Erin Bilbray Likely R

NY-19 Chris Gibson Sean Eldridge Likely R

Democratic Seats Unlikely to Flip

Dist. Incumbent Republican Candidate

AL-07 Terri Sewell Tamara Harris Johnson AZ-03 Raúl Grijalva Ruth McClung CA-02 Jared Huffman Dale Mensing CA-05 Mike Thompson James Hinton CA-06 Doris Matsui Joseph McCray, Sr. CA-09 Jerry McNerney Anthony C. Amador CA-12 Nancy Pelosi John Dennis CA-13 Barbara Lee Dakin Sundeen CA-14 Jackie Speier Robin Chew CA-15 Eric Swalwell Hugh Bussell CA-16 Jim Costa Johnny Tacherra

CA-17 Mike Honda Ro Khanna (D) CA-18 Anna Eshoo Richard B. Fox CA-19 Zoe Lofgren Robert Murray CA-20 Sam Farr Ronald Paul Kabat CA-27 Judy Chu Jack Orswell

CA-28 Adam Schiff Steve Stokes CA-29 Tony Cárdenas William Leader CA-30 Brad Sherman Mark Reed CA-32 Grace Napolitano Arturo Enrique Alas CA-34 Xavier Becerra Adrienne Edwards CA-37 Karen Bass Adam King CA-38 Linda Sánchez Benjamin Campos CA-40 Lucille Roybal-Allard David Sanchez CA-41 Mark Takano Steve Adams CA-43 Maxine Waters John Wood, Jr. CA-44 Janice Hahn Adam Shbeita CA-46 Loretta Sánchez Adam Nick CA-47 Alan Lowenthal Andy Whallon CA-51 Juan Vargas Stephen Meade CA-53 Susan Davis Larry A. Wilske CO-01 Diana DeGette Martin Walsh CO-02 Jared Polis George Leing CO-07 Ed Perlmutter Don Ytterberg CT-01 John Larson Matthew M. Corey CT-02 Joe Courtney Lori Hopkins-Cavanaugh CT-03 Rosa DeLauro James Brown CT-04 Jim Himes Dan Debicella DE-AL John Carney Rose Izzo FL-05 Corrine Brown Glo Scurry-Smith FL-09 Alan Grayson Carol Platt FL-14 Kathy Castor N/A


8


“Solid” Democratic Seats*


FL-20 Alcee Hastings Jay Bonner FL-21 Ted Deutch N/A FL-22 Lois Frankel Paul Spain FL-23 Debbie Wasserman Schultz Joe Kaufman FL-24 Frederica Wilson Dufirstson Neree GA-02 Sanford Bishop Greg Duke GA-04 Hank Johnson N/A

GA-05 John Lewis N/A

GA-13 David Scott N/A HI-02 Tulsi Gabbard Dave Crowley IL-01 Bobby Rush Jimmy Tillman IL-02 Robin Kelly Eric Wallace IL-03 Daniel Lipinski Sharon Brannigan IL-04 Luis Gutierrez Hector Concepcion IL-05 Mike Quigley Vince Kolber IL-07 Danny Davis Robert Bumpers IL-09 Jan Schakowsky Susanne Atanus IN-01 Pete Visclosky Mark Leyva IN-07 André Carson Catherine Ping KY-03 John Yarmuth Michael Macfarlane LA-02 Cedric Richmond David Brooks (I) ME-01 Chellie Pingree Isaac Misiuk MD-02 Dutch Ruppersberger Dave Banach MD-03 John Sarbanes Charles Long MD-04 Donna Edwards Nancy Hoyt MD-05 Steny Hoyer Chris Chaffee MD-06 John Delaney Daniel Bongino MD-07 Elijah Cummings Corrogan Vaughn MD-08 Chris Van Hollen Dave Wallace MA-01 Richard Neal N/A MA-02 Jim McGovern N/A MA-03 Niki Tsongas Roseann Wofford MA-04 Joseph Kennedy III N/A MA-05 Katherine Clark N/A MA-07 Michael Capuano N/A MA-08 Stephen Lynch N/A MI-05 Dan Kildee Allen Hardwick MI-09 Sandy Levin George Brikho MI-13 John Conyers Jeff Gorman MN-04 Betty McCollum Sharna Wahlgren MN-05 Keith Ellison Doug Daggett

Democratic Seats Unlikely to Flip


9



MS-02 Bennie Thompson Troy Ray MO-01 Lacy Clay Daniel Elder MO-05 Emanuel Cleaver Jacob Turk NV-01 Dina Titus Annette Teijeiro NJ-06 Frank Pallone Anthony Wilkinson NJ-08 Albio Sires Jude Anthony Tiscornia NJ-09 Bill Pascrell Dierdre Paul NJ-10 Donald Payne, Jr. Yolanda Dentley

NM-01 Michelle Lujan Grisham Mike Frese NM-03 Ben Ray Luján Jefferson Byrd NY-03 Steve Israel Grant Lally NY-05 Gregory Meeks N/A NY-06 Grace Meng N/A NY-07 Nydia Velázquez Jose Luis Fernandez NY-08 Hakeem Jeffries Alan Bellone NY-09 Yvette Clarke Daniel Cavanagh NY-10 Jerrold Nadler Ross Brady NY-12 Carolyn Maloney Nick Di Iorio NY-13 Charles Rangel Kenneth Schaeffer NY-14 Joe Crowley Elizabeth Perri NY-15 José Serrano Eduardo Ramirez NY-16 Eliot Engel N/A NY-17 Nita Lowey Chris Day NY-20 Paul Tonko Jim Fischer NY-25 Louise Slaughter Mark Assini NY-26 Brian Higgins Kathy Weppner NC-01 G.K. Butterfield Arthur Rich NC-04 David Price Paul Wright OH-03 Joyce Beatty John Adams OH-09 Marcy Kaptur Richard May OH-11 Marcia Fudge Mark Zetzer OH-13 Tim Ryan Thomas Pekarek OR-01 Suzanne Bonamici Jason Yates OR-03 Earl Blumenauer James Buchal OR-04 Peter DeFazio Art Robinson OR-05 Kurt Schrader Tootie Smith PA-01 Robert Brady Megan Ann Rath PA-02 Chaka Fattah Armond James PA-14 Mike Doyle N/A PA-17 Matt Cartwright David Moylan RI-01 David Cicilline Cormick Lynch RI-02 Jim Langevin Rhue Reis SC-06 Jim Clyburn Anthony Culler TN-05 Jim Cooper Bob Ries TN-09 Steve Cohen Charlotte Bergmann


TX-09 Al Green George Reitner TX-15 Rubén Hinojosa Eddie Zamora TX-16 Beto O’Rourke Jaime Perez TX-18 Sheila Jackson Lee Sean Seibert TX-20 Joaquin Castro Michael Idrogo TX-28 Henry Cuellar Michael Carey TX-29 Gene Green James Stanczak TX-30 Eddie Bernice Johnson Eric Lemonte Williams TX-33 Marc Veasey Jason Reeves TX-34 Filemon Vela Larry Smith TX-35 Lloyd Doggett Susan Narvaiz VT-AL Peter Welch Mark Donka VA-03 Bobby Scott Justin Gandino-Saadein VA-11 Gerry Connolly Suzanne Scholte WA-02 Rick Larsen BJ Guillot WA-06 Derek Kilmer Martin McClendon WA-07 Jim McDermott Craig Keller WA-09 Adam Smith Doug Basler WA-10 Denny Heck Joyce McDonald WI-02 Mark Pocan Peter Theron WI-03 Ron Kind Tony Kurtz WI-04 Gwen Moore Dan Sebring

Republican Seats Unlikely to Flip

Dist Incumbent Democratic Candidate

AL-01 Bradley Byrne Burton LeFlore

AL-02 Martha Roby Erick Wright

AL-03 Mike Rogers Jesse Smith

AL-04 Robert Aderholt N/A

AL-05 Mo Brooks Mark Bray

AK-AL Don Young Forest Dunbar

AZ-04 Paul Gosar Mikel Weisser

AZ-05 Matt Salmon James Wood

AZ-06 David Schweikert John Williamson

AZ-08 Trent Franks N/A

AR-01 Rick Crawford Jackie McPherson

AR-03 Steve Womack Grant Brand

CA-01 Doug LaMalfa Heidi Hall

CA-04 Tom McClintock Art Moore

CA-08 Paul Cook Bob Conaway

CA-10 Jeff Denham Michael Eggman

CA-22 Devin Nunes Sam Aguilera-Marrero

CA-23 Kevin McCarthy Raul Garcia

CA-39 Ed Royce Peter Anderson

CA-42 Ken Calvert Tim Sheridan

CA-48 Dana Rohrabacher Suzanne Savary

CA-49 Darrell Issa Dave Peiser

CA-50 Duncan Hunter James Kimber

CO-03 Scott Tipton Abel Tapia

CO-05 Doug Lamborn Irv Halter

FL-01 Jeff Miller Jim Bryan

FL-03 Ted Yoho Marihelen Wheeler

FL-04 Ander Crenshaw Gary Koniz

FL-06 Ron DeSantis David Cox

FL-07 John Mica Wes Neuman

FL-08 Bill Posey Gabriel Rothblatt

FL-10 Dan Webster Michael McKenna

FL-11 Richard Nugent Dave Koller

FL-12 Gus Bilirakis N/A

FL-13 David Jolly Lucas Overby

FL-15 Dennis Ross Alan Cohn

FL-16 Vern Buchanan Henry Lawrence

FL-17 Tom Rooney Will Bronson

FL-19 Curt Clawson April Freeman

FL-25 Mario Diaz-Balart N/A

FL-27 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen N/A

GA-03 Lynn Westmoreland N/A

GA-06 Tom Price Robert Montigel


“Solid” Republican Seats*

Dist Incumbent Democratic Candidate

GA-07 Rob Woodall Thomas Wight

GA-08 Austin Scott N/A

GA-09 Doug Collins David Vogel

GA-14 Tom Graves N/A

ID-01 Raúl Labrador Shirley Ringo

ID-02 Mike Simpson Richard Stallings

IL-06 Peter Roskam Michael Mason

IL-14 Randy Hultgren Dennies Anderson

IL-15 John Shimkus Eric Thorsland

IL-16 Adam Kinzinger Randall Wayne Olsen

IL-18 Aaron Schock Darrel Miller

IN-02 Jackie Walorski Joe Bock

IN-03 Marlin Stutzman Justin Kuhnle

IN-04 Todd Rokita John Dale

IN-05 Susan Brooks Shawn Denney

IN-06 Luke Messer Susan Heitzman

IN-08 Larry Bucshon Tom Spangler

IN-09 Todd Young Bill Bailey

KS-01 Tim Huelskamp James Sherow

KS-04 Mike Pompeo Perry Shuckman

KY-01 Ed Whitfield Charles Hatchett

KY-02 Brett Guthrie Ron Leach

KY-04 Thomas Massie Peter Newberry

KY-05 Hal Rogers Kenneth Stepp

KY-06 Andy Barr Elizabeth Jensen

LA-01 Steve Scalise

Lee Dugas Vinny Mendoza Jeff Sanford (I)

LA-03 Charles Boustany Bryan Barilleaux (R) Russell Richard (I)

LA-04 John Fleming Randall Lord (L)

LA-05** Vance McAllister Jamie Mayo

MD-01 Andy Harris Bill Tilghman

MI-02 Bill Huizenga Dean Vandersteldt

MI-03 Justin Amash Bob Goodrich

MI-06 Fred Upton Paul Clements

MI-07 Tim Walberg Pam Byrnes

MI-10 Candice Miller Chuck Stadler

MN-02 John Kline Mike Obermueller

MN-03 Erik Paulsen Sharon Sund

MS-01 Alan Nunnelee Ron Dickey

MS-03 Gregg Harper Douglas Magee

MS-04 Steven Palazzo Matt Moore

*Based on Oct. 24 Cook Political Report Ratings 10

**LA-05 GOP Candidates: Zach Dasher; Ralph Abraham; Harris Brown

Dist. Incumbent Democratic Candidate

MO-02 Ann Wagner Arthur Lieber

MO-03 Blaine Luetkemeyer Courtney Denton

MO-04 Vicky Hartzler Nate Irvin

MO-06 Sam Graves Bill Hedge

MO-07 Billy Long Jim Evans

MO-08 Jason Smith Barbara Stocker

NE-01 Jeff Fortenberry Dennis Crawford

NE-03 Adrian Smith Mark Sullivan

NV-02 Mark Amodei Kristen Spees

NJ-02 Frank LoBiondo Bill Hughes Jr.

NJ-04 Chris Smith Ruben Scolavino

NJ-05 Scott Garrett Roy Cho

NJ-07 Leonard Lance Janice Kovach

NJ-11 Rodney Frelinghuysen Mark Dunec

NM-02 Steve Pearce Roxanne Lara

NY-02 Peter King Patricia Maher

NY-22 Richard Hanna N/A

NY-23 Tom Reed Martha Robertson

NY-27 Chris Collins Jim O’Donnell

NC-02 Renee Ellmers Clay Aiken

NC-03 Walter Jones Marshall Adame

NC-05 Virginia Foxx Josh Brannon

NC-08 Richard Hudson Antonio Blue

NC-09 Robert Pittenger N/A

NC-10 Patrick McHenry Tate MacQueen

NC-11 Mark Meadows Tom Hill

NC-13 George Holding Brenda Cleary

OH-01 Steve Chabot Fred Kundrata

OH-02 Brad Wenstrup Marek Tyszkiewicz

OH-04 Jim Jordan Janet Garrett

OH-05 Bob Latta Robert Fry

OH-06 Bill Johnson Jennifer Garrison

OH-07 Bob Gibbs N/A

OH-08 John Boehner Tom Poetter

OH-10 Mike Turner Robert Klepinger

OH-12 Pat Tiberi David Tibbs

OH-14 David Joyce Michael Wager

OH-15 Steve Stivers Richard Scott Wharton

OH-16 Jim Renacci Pete Crossland

OK-01 Jim Bridenstine N/A

OK-02 Markwayne Mullin Earl Everett

OK-03 Frank Lucas Frankie Robbins

OK-04 Tom Cole Bert Smith

OR-02 Greg Walden Aelea Christofferson

PA-03 Mike Kelly Dan LaVallee



11



PA-04 Scott Perry Linda Deliah Thompson

PA-05 Glenn Thompson Kerith Strano Taylor

PA-07 Pat Meehan Mary Ellen Balchunis

PA-08 Mike Fitzpatrick Kevin Strouse

PA-09 Bill Shuster Alanna Hartzok

PA-10 Tom Marino Scott Brion

PA-11 Lou Barletta Andy Ostrowski

PA-12 Keith Rothfus Erin McClelland

PA-15 Charlie Dent N/A

PA-16 Joe Pitts Tom Houghton

PA-18 Tim Murphy N/A

SC-01 Mark Sanford N/A

SC-02 Joe Wilson Phil Black

SC-03 Jeff Duncan Barbara Jo Mullis

SC-04 Trey Gowdy Curtis McLaughlin

SC-05 Mick Mulvaney Tom Adams

SC-07 Tom Rice Gloria Bromell Tinubu

SD-AL Kristi Noem Corinna Robinson

TN-01 Phil Roe Robert Franklin

TN-02 Jimmy Duncan Bob Scott

TN-03 Chuck Fleischmann Mary Headrick

TN-04 Scott DesJarlais Lenda Sherrell

TN-06 Diane Black Amos Powers

TN-07 Marsha Blackburn Dan Cramer

TN-08 Stephen Fincher Wes Bradley

TX-01 Louie Gohmert Shirley McKellar

TX-02 Ted Poe Niko Letsos

TX-03 Sam Johnson Paul Blair

TX-05 Jeb Hensarling Ken Ashby

TX-06 Joe Barton David Cozad

TX-07 John Culberson James Cargas

TX-08 Kevin Brady Ken Petty

TX-10 Michael McCaul Tawana Walter-Cadien

TX-11 Mike Conaway Ryan Lange TX-12 Kay Granger Mark Greene

TX-13 Mac Thornberry Mike Minter

TX-14 Randy Weber Donald Brown

TX-17 Bill Flores Nick Haynes

TX-19 Randy Neugebauer Neal Marchbanks

TX-21 Lamar Smith Ryan Shields

TX-22 Pete Olson Frank Briscoe

TX-24 Kenny Marchant Patrick McGehearty

TX-25 Roger Williams Marco Montoya

TX-26 Michael Burgess Mark Boler





TX-27 Blake Farenthold Wesley Reed

TX-31 John Carter Louie Minor

TX-32 Pete Sessions Frank Perez

UT-01 Rob Bishop Donna McAleer

UT-02 Chris Stewart Luz Robles

UT-03 Jason Chaffetz Brian Wonnacott

VA-01 Rob Wittman Norm Mosher

VA-02 Scott Rigell Suzanne Patrick

VA-04 Randy Forbes Elliott Fausz

VA-05 Robert Hurt Lawrence Gaughan

VA-06 Bob Goodlatte Will Hammer

VA-09 Morgan Griffith William Carr

WA-03 Jaime Herrera Beutler Bob Dingethal

WA-05 Cathy McMorris Rodgers Joseph Pakootas

WA-08 Dave Reichert Jason Ritchie

WV-01 David McKinley Glen Gainer

WI-01 Paul Ryan Rob Zerban

WI-05 Jim Sensenbrenner Chris Rockwood

WI-07 Sean Duffy Kelly Westlund

WI-08 Reid Ribble Ron Gruett

WY-AL Cynthia Lummis Richard Grayson

2014 Governors’ Races

Current Composition: 29 Republicans / 21 Democrats

There are 36 Governor seats up for election (14 D / 22 R) with 11 races rated as “toss up”.

Governors’ Races to Watch

State Democratic

Candidate

Republican

Candidate

Cook

Rating

Outcome

Alaska Bill Walker (I) Sean Parnell Lean R

Arkansas

OPEN SEAT

Mike Ross Asa Hutchinson Lean R

Arizona

OPEN SEAT

Fred Duval Doug Ducey Lean R

Colorado John Hickenlooper Bob Beauprez Toss Up

Connecticut Dan Malloy Tom Foley Toss Up

Florida Charlie Crist Rick Scott Toss Up

Georgia Jason Carter Nathan Deal Toss Up

Hawaii

OPEN SEAT

David Ige Duke Aiona Toss Up

Illinois Pat Quinn Bruce Rauner Toss Up

Kansas Paul Davis Sam Brownback Toss Up

Maryland

OPEN SEAT

Anthony Brown Larry Hogan Lean D

Massachusetts

OPEN SEAT

Martha Coakley Charlie Baker Toss Up

Maine Mike Michaud

Eliot Cutler (I)

Paul LePage Toss Up

Michigan Mark Schauer Rick Snyder Toss Up

New Hampshire Maggie Hassan Walter Havenstein Lean D

Pennsylvania Tom Wolf Tom Corbett Likely D

Rhode Island

OPEN SEAT

Gina Raimondo Allan Fung Lean D

Wisconsin Mary Burke Scott Walker Toss Up



Voting Information

Early Voting in States with Key Senate Races

State Early Voting

Alaska Early voting begins October 20th

Arkansas Early voting begins October 20th

Colorado Early voting begins October 20th

Georgia Early voting occurs October 27th – October 31st

Kansas Early voting begins as soon as ballots are made available and ends on the day prior to election day

Kentucky Early voting begins October 29th and voters must provide an excuse to vote early

Louisiana Early voting occurs October 21st – October 28th

North

Carolina

Early voting begins on the third Thursday (October 16th), prior to election day and ends on the

Saturday (November 1st) prior to the election

14

www.williamsandjensen.com *Voters in line when the polls closed are permitted to vote

Poll Closing Times Times listed below are local

Alabama Polls close at 7:00 PM CST

Alaska Polls close at 8:00 PM Alaska Time

Arizona Polls close at 7:00 PM MST

Arkansas* Polls close at 7:30 PM

California Polls close at 8:00 PM PST

Colorado Colorado is a mail-in ballot state

Connecticut Polls close at 8:00 PM EST

Delaware* Polls close at 8:00 PM EST

Florida Polls close at 7:00 PM EST / 7:00 PM CST

Georgia* Polls close at 7:00 PM EST

Hawaii Polls close at 6:00 PM Hawaii Time

Idaho Polls close at 8:00 PM MST/PST Illinois Polls close at 7:00 PM CST Indiana Polls close at 6:00 PM EST / CST

Iowa Polls close at 9:00 PM CST

Kansas Polls close at 7:00 PM CST / 6:00 PM MST

Kentucky* Polls close at 6:00 p.m. EST / 6:00 p.m. CST

Louisiana Polls close at 8:00 PM CST

Maine Polls close at 8:00 PM EST

Maryland Polls close at 8:00 PM EST Massachusetts Polls close at 8:00 PM EST Michigan Polls close at 8:00 PM EST / 8:00 PM CST

Minnesota Polls close at 8:00 PM CST

Mississippi Polls close at 7:00 PM CST

Missouri Polls close at 7:00 PM CST

Montana Polls close at 8:00 PM

Nebraska Polls close at 8:00 PM CST / 7:00 PM MST Nevada Polls close at 7:00 PM PST

New Hampshire Polls close at 7:00 PM EST

New Jersey Polls close at 8:00 PM EST New Mexico Polls close at 7:00 PM MST

New York Polls close at 9:00 PM EST North Carolina Polls close at 7:30 PM EST

North Dakota Polls close 9:00 p.m. CST / 9:00 PM MST Ohio* Polls close at 7:30 PM EST Oklahoma Polls close at 7:00 PM CST

Oregon Oregon is a mail-in ballot state

Pennsylvania Polls close at 8:00 PM EST Rhode Island Polls close at 8:00 PM EST South Carolina Polls close at 7:00 PM EST

South Dakota* Polls close at 7:00 PM CST / 7:00 PM MST

Tennessee Polls close at 8:00 PM EST / 7:00 PM CST

Texas Polls close at 7:00 PM CST / 7:00 PM MST Utah Polls close at 8:00 PM MST Vermont Polls close at 7 PM EST Virginia Polls close at 7 PM EST

Washington Washington is a mail-in ballot state

Washington, D.C. Polls close at 8:00 PM EST West Virginia Polls close at 7:30 PM EST

Wisconsin Polls close at 8:00 PM CST

Wyoming Polls close at 7:00 PM MST

15


Look Ahead to 2016

2016 Senate Elections There are 34 Senators up for election in 2016: 10 Democrats and 24 Republicans.

Democrat Seats

Republican Seats

State Current Senator 2012 Presidential

Election

Alabama Richard Shelby Romney

Alaska Lisa Murkowski Romney

Arkansas John Boozman Romney

Arizona John McCain Romney

Florida Marco Rubio Obama

Georgia Johnny Isakson Romney

Idaho Mike Crapo Romney

Illinois Mark Kirk Obama

Indiana Daniel Coats Romney

Iowa Chuck Grassley Obama

Kansas Jerry Moran Romney

Kentucky Rand Paul Romney

Louisiana David Vitter Romney

Missouri Roy Blunt Romney

New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte Obama

North Carolina Richard Burr Romney

North Dakota John Hoeven Romney

Ohio Rob Portman Obama

Oklahoma Winner of 2014 Election Romney

Pennsylvania Patrick Toomey Obama

South Carolina Tim Scott Romney

South Dakota John Thune Romney

Utah Mike Lee Romney

Wisconsin Ron Johnson Obama

State Current Senator 2012 Presidential Election

California Barbara Boxer Obama

Colorado Michael Bennet Obama

Connecticut Richard Blumenthal Obama

Hawaii Brian Schatz Obama

Maryland Barbara Mikulski Obama

Nevada Harry Reid Obama

New York Chuck Schumer Obama

Oregon Ron Wyden Obama

Vermont Patrick Leahy Obama

Washington Patty Murray Obama

2014 midterm election guide - williams &...

Documents