Teri Eastburn,eastburn@ucar.eduLisa Gardiner,lisagard@ucar.edu

Climate Change:

Causes, Consequences, and Solutions

scied.ucar.edu/events/clone-climate-change-connections-2014

Workshop Website

What do you know, want to know, and want to learnabout climate change?

A review of our KWL Chart

KWL

What are UCAR and NCAR?

National Center for Atmospheric ResearchUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder, Colorado

• To address your needs

• To foster confidence

• To present meaningful classroom-ready activities

• To foster helpful discussions

• To have fun and learn from one another

Goals for Today

9:00: Introduction

9:30: Earth as a System; Energy

10:30: Weather & Climate Connections, Urban Heat

1:00: Climate Now: Biogeochemical Cycles & Human

Influence

2:30: Visible Impacts

3:20: Climate Future: Solutions & Connections

4:05: Workshop Evaluations

Today’s Agenda

.

• Belief in climate change up 13%, from 57% to 70%;

• Climate change denialists have declined from 20% to 12%;

• 54% of Americans believe climate changeis human caused – up 8%;

• Three our of four (76%) say they trust climate scientists fortheir information on climate change (teachers, too, arehighly trusted sources in US);

• 44% of Americans believe scientists agree that climate changeis real and human caused – up 9%.

Source: Climate Change in the American Mind, 9/2012

Since 2010Great Strides

What led to Affirmations?• Hurricane Sandy• Increasing media coverage affirming climate change• Midwest drought, summer 2012• Texas drought 2011; Fires across Southwest & West• All around increase in severe weather events• Arctic sea ice retreat• 2012 hottest year on record in continental US

A Conversation: Climate Communication

A: The Earth System; Energy

Atmosphere

Lithosphere

CryosphereBiosphere

Hydrosphere

Source:

Living with a Star, NASA

Meet the Photon Folks

Absorption, Reflection ,Transmission

Energy

Our Atmospheric Filter

Wave Demo Activity

Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory &

the University of California

& Weather B.

B. Weather & Climate Graphing

Get the Picture? - Activity

Feeling the Heat Activity

Students learn about the

urban heat island effect by

investigating which areas of

their schoolyard have higher

temperatures. Then they

analyze data about how the

number of heat waves in an

urban area has increased

over time with population.

NYC, 8/14/02: Temp and vegetationPg. 19

Pg. 9

Reasons for patterns

The highest temperatures are found in the most dense part

of a city. That’s the urban heat island effect.

The next 3 slides show how LA has changed over time. How do

you think the heat island effect has changed as the city

changed?

Feeling the Heat, Part 1Students investigate how trees, grass,

asphalt, etc. affect temperature

Coolest

Warm

Feeling the Heat, Part 2: Investigating the history of heat waves and temperature in Los Angeles, CAStand in a group of 10 along the rope. Each person takes one

LA Data Card.

The Objective: Order yourselves by the data on the card

keeping at least one foot on the rope at all times as you

move past each other to get in order.

1. Order yourselves by average temperature.

2. Order yourselves by the number of heat waves.**

3. Order yourselves by population.

(**Note: there are two decades that have the same number

of heat waves. The people with those cards can stand next

to each other in any order.)

Los Angeles, CA in 1877. East LA is on the left and West LA is

on the right. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress))

Los Angeles, CA in 1909. (Courtesy of the Library of Congress)

Los Angeles, CA in 2002. This 3-D perspective view was generated

using topographic data and an enhanced color Landsat 5 satellite

image mosaic. Topography is exaggerated one and one-half times.

(Courtesy of NASA/JPL)

This graph shows

the number of

heat waves in

Los Angeles, CA

over the past

century. Do you

see a pattern?

How have heat

waves changed

through time?

(From Tamrazian

et al., 2008)

Looking for patterns

How has the temperature in Los Angeles changed over time? This

graph shows the average temperature for each year. See a pattern?

Co

urt

esy o

f N

OA

A/N

WS

Warmer city temperatures are partially due to global warming.

This graph shows how Earth’s average temperature has changed.

C. Biogeochemical Cycles & Human Footprints

Climate Resources

Human Footprints

Resources

www.epa.gov/climate/climatechange/science/indicatorswww.ipcc.ch

www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/publications.htm

IPCC5th Assessment Reports 2014 EPA Climate Indicators CDC Publications

C. Resources

National Climate Assessmenthttp://nca2014.globalchange.gov

Activity: The Nitrogen Cycle Game

Activity: The Carbon Journey Source: NOAA

The “Other” CO2 Problem

Activity: CO2 How Much Do You Spew?

CO2: How Much Do You Spew? Directions:

• Each group has a card profiling a hypothetical family or individual.

• Families/individuals live in different situations & use energy in different ways.

• Students use the worksheet to calculate a household’s CO2 emissions.

Sample card

CO2: How Much Do You Spew?

Answer Key for CO2: How Much Do You Spew

1. What activities emitted the most CO2 for the family you examined?

2. Could those activities be changed to emit less CO2? How?

3. How would you change your scenario to reduce CO2?

150 0.0450.012100 0.0740.018

50 0.1280.026

25 0.1770.052

Period Rate

Years /decadeTrenberth

Global mean temperatures arerising faster with time

Warmest 12 years:2010,2005,1998,2013,2003,2002, 2006,2009,2007,2004,2001,2011

Activity: Shopping Heats Up

Photo by WaterPartners International

What are basic human needs?

Select items to purchase with your

global dollars using the

Choices and impacts

worksheet

D. Visible ImpactsACTIVITY: CLIMATE IMPACTS GRAPH MATCHING

• On your table:

– Graphs of data about climate and global change

– Statements that are supported by the graphed data

– Statements that are not supported by graphed data

• Directions:

– Match statements with a graph of data that supports them.

– Identify statements that are not supported with these data.

Climate Impacts Graph Matching is in the Climate & Water Teaching Box

1906

2004

Photos courtesy of USGSCarroll Glacier

Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

Activity: Glaciers Then and Now

Muir Glacier (Pg. 85)

Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska

1941

2004

Photos courtesy of NSIDC

1979 – 2000 averageMinimum sea ice extent+/- 2 standard diviiations

1981 – 2010 averageMinimum sea ice extent+/- 2 standard diviations

2007

2012

2013

2014

Model Projections of Future Arctic Summer Sea Ice Minimums Under

Business as Usual Future

CLIMATE AND DROUGHT

• http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/climate-change-jan-june12-texaswater_03-22/

A Texas Town Struggles with Water

WHICH AREAS ARE PROJECTED TO GET DRIER?

From Istockphoto.com

C

O

N

N

E

C

T

I

O

N

S

Raise the Roof on Urban Heat

Walk Thru: Stabilization Wedges Game

2 2 = 4 billion tons go out

Ocean Land Biosphere (net)

Fossil FuelBurning

+

8

800billion tons carbon

4

billion tons go in

ATMOSPHERE

billion tons added every year

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historicalemissions

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Historical Emissions

1.6

Interim Goal

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historicalemissions Flat path

Stabilization Triangle

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

The Stabilization Triangle

1.6

Interim Goal

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historicalemissions Flat path

Stabilization Triangle

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

The Stabilization Triangle

~850 ppm

Easier CO2 target

1.6

Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year

Historicalemissions Flat path

0

8

16

1950 2000 2050 2100

Stabilization Wedges

16 GtC/y

Eight “wedges”

Goal: In 50 years, sameglobal emissions as today

What is a “Wedge”?

A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

1 GtC/yr

50 years

Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

Energy Efficiency &Conservation (4)

CO2 Capture & Storage (3)

StabilizationTriangle

Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)

Forest and Soil Storage (2)

Fuel Switching(1)

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Nuclear Fission (1)

2007 2057

8 GtC/y

16 GtC/y

TriangleStabilization

Take Home Messages

• In order to avoid a doubling of atmospheric CO2, we need to rapidly deploy low-carbon energy technologies and/or enhance natural sinks

• We already have an adequate portfolio of technologies to make large cuts in emissions

• No one technology can do the whole job – a variety of strategies will need to be used to stay on a path that avoids a CO2 doubling

• Every “wedge” has associated impacts and costs

Activity walk thru: Ruler of the World

http://scied.ucar.edu/ruler-world

Activity: Climate Connections

Climate Change 101

TEACH THESE 5 KEY POINTS

It is real NOW

It is bad for us

It is human-caused

We can solve it if we choose to

Climate scientists agree that it’s happening

Because this is what scientific evidence supports

scied.ucar.edu/events/clone-climate-change-connections-2014

Workshop Website

Thank you for joining us today.Help us continually improve this workshop by

completing your survey before you leave.

Teri Eastburn, eastburn@ucar.edu303.497.1152

Lisa Gardiner, lisagard@ucar.edu303.497.2584

scied.ucar.edu/events/clone-climate-change-connections-2014

Extra – not needed

Activity Review: Model a Moving Glacier

The objective of this lesson is to teach middle and high school students about variables that affect glacier flow over time:

- valley slope

- ice temperature

- basal conditions (ground surface)

- strain

Pg. 91

Variables to Study

PVC pipe lined with aluminum foil and lubricated with oil

Lubricated Bed

PVC pipeNormal Bed

PVC pipe lined with sandpaper

Rough Bed

Basal Conditions

65°Steep

45°Medium

25°Shallow

Valley Slope

Flubber microwaved until hot to touch

Warm Ice

(pink flubber)

Flubber at room temperature

Normal Ice

(white flubber)

Flubber placed in the freezer prior to class

Cold Ice

(blue flubber)

Ice Temperature

PVC pipe

flubbervertical

toothpicks

Time 1:

Time 2:

Strain Grid

Lab Setupbasic setup

advanced setup

“Flubber” Recipe

1. Decide on one of the variables to study.

2. Make a hypothesis (e.g. the steeper the slope, the faster the flow rate of a

glacier.)

3. Test your hypothesis and record and graph your results.

4. Discuss results and how flubber is like and unlike a glacier.

food coloring (optional)

½ cup warm water1 cup white glue

(ex. Elmer’s)

2 tsp. of Borax¾ cup warm water

Mix #2Mix #1