2013 economic outlook (nclgba)

Michael A. Brown, EconomistDecember 7, 2012

Economic Outlook for 2013 and Beyond

Wells Fargo Economics 2

Overview


-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 2.7%

GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 2.5%

Forecast

Where Are We Now?

We are more than three years into the economic

recovery and there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty regarding

sovereign debt issues in Europe, the federal budget deficit and the U.S. housing

sector

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real Business Fixed InvestmentBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q3 @ -2.2%Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 4.5%

Forecast

Capital Spending

Growth in business fixed investment spending will continue to add to growth



80

85

90

95

100

105

110

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Small Business OptimismNFIB Optimism Index

NFIB Optimism Index: Oct @ 93.1

Small Businesses

Small businesses confidence remains depressed

Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Wells Fargo Economics

Manufacturing Sector

6

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

Manufacturing Production GrowthOutput Growth by Volume, Not Revenue

3-Month Annual Rate: Oct @ -3.0%

Yr/Yr Percent Change: Oct @ 3.0%

Both Series are 3-Month Moving Averages

Manufacturing sees continued expansion in

output, but at a slower pace

Source: Federal Reserve and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

2.1

2.4

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Housing StartsMillions of Units

Forecast

Housing Market

Housing starts have bottomed and should begin to slowly pick up over the

next few years



Housing Market

Delinquencies remain elevated, but inventory levels are coming down

3.2%

3.2%

3.3%

3.3%

3.5%

3.5%

3.7%

3.9%

3.9%

4.0%

4.0%

4.0%

4.2%

4.3%

4.4%

5.2%

6.5%

3.2%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%

California

Michigan

Ohio

I llinois

Alabama

Tennessee

Massachusetts

Arkansas

Rhode Island

Delaware

Florida

Maryland

Mississippi

Georgia

Washington

New J ersey

Nevada

United States

Mortgages 90+ Days Delinquent - By StatePercent of Mortgages Outstanding

As of Q2 2012

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

InventoryDelinquencies

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Inventory of Existing Homes for SaleExisting Homes for Sale at End of Month - In Thousands

Total Inventory: Oct @ 2.1 Million


-32%

-24%

-16%

-8%

0%

8%

16%

24%

-32%

-24%

-16%

-8%

0%

8%

16%

24%

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Home PricesYear-over-Year Percentage Change

Median Sale Price: Oct @ $178,700Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Oct @ 9.1%FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Aug @ 4.7%S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Aug @ 1.3%

Housing Market

Home prices have bottomed in some areas

Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


18.2

18.2

18.7

19.1

20.1

20.8

22.5

22.6

23.2

24.1

25.8

29.0

32.8

35.8

39.7

42.7

58.6

22.3

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Colorado

New J ersey

Oregon

Washington

Virginia

New Hampshire

Idaho

Rhode Island

Maryland

Ohio

I llinois

California

Michigan

Georgia

Arizona

Florida

Nevada

US

Negative Equity Mortgages - By StatePercent of Mortgages Outstanding

As of Q2 2012

Home Mortgages

Negative equity in homes has contributed to

foreclosures

Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11

Consumer Confidence IndexConference Board

Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: Nov @ 33.6%

Confidence: Nov @ 73.7

12-Month Moving Average: Nov @ 67.1

The Consumer

Consumers are still struggling to find reasons to

be confident

Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real Personal Consumption ExpendituresBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

PCE - CAGR: Q3 @ 1.4%

PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.8%

Forecast

The Consumer

Consumer spending will remain subdued until the

end of 2014



250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Initial Claims for UnemploymentSeasonally Adjusted, In Thousands

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Nov-24 @ -1.5%

Initial Claims: Nov-24 @ 393.0 Thousand

4-Week Moving Average: Nov-24 @ 405.3 Thousand

52-Week Moving Average: Nov-24 @ 376.3 Thousand

The Employment Situation

Initial claims data have been signaling improvement

Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate: Nov @ 7.7%


The unemployment rate is falling, but for the wrong

reason



0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

No High SchoolDiploma

High SchoolDiploma

Some College College Degree

Unemployment Rate by Education LevelNovember 2012


The unemployment rate for college-educated workers

remains low around 4 percent, while the

unemployment rate for workers with less than a

high school diploma is over 12 percent



-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

20%

0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84

Employment CyclesPercent Change from Cycle Peak

1948-1949 Cycle

1981-1982 Cycle

1989-1991 Cycle

2001 Cycle

2007-To-Date

Forecast


Employment will eventually regain its peak, but not

quickly



-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%

Total Nonfarm

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Leisure and Hospitality

Educ. & Health Svcs.

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Goods Producing

Financial Activities

Other Services

Government

Information

United States Employment by IndustryYear-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average

November 2012

Where is the Job Growth?

The service sector continues to lead job growth



Unemployment by County

Unemployment RateSeptember 2007

Greater than 12.5%

10.0% to 12.5%

8.0% to 10.0%

6.0% to 8.0%

Less than 6.0%

Unemployment Rate

Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


Unemployment by County

Unemployment Rate

Large Portions of the United States Continue to Face Serious Unemployment Issues

Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

8.0% to 10.0%

Unemployment RateSeptember 2012

Greater than 12.5%

10.0% to 12.5%

6.0% to 8.0%

Less than 6.0%


-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

CPI vs. Core CPIYear-over-Year Percent Change

CPI : Oct @ 2.2%

Core CPI : Oct @ 2.0%

Inflation

Inflation will likely edge slightly higher in the

months ahead



14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

U.S. Budget GapCBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP

Outlays: 2022 @ 22.4%

Revenues: 2022 @ 21.2%

What is Going on in D.C.?

Even under existing law with budget cuts and tax increases there is still a

budget gap

Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-15.0%

-12.0%

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

-15.0%

-12.0%

-9.0%

-6.0%

-3.0%

0.0%

3.0%

6.0%

9.0%

12.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real Disposable Personal IncomeBars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

Real Disp. Personal Inc. - CAGR: Q3 @ 0.5%

Real Disp. Personal Inc. - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.6%

Forecast

Fiscal Policy Changes in 2013

Under existing law, significant fiscal policy

changes in 2013 would put downward pressure on

disposable income



-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Eurozone Real GDPBars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change

Compound Annual Growth: Q3 @ -0.2%

Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q3 @ -0.6%

Forecast

Eurozone Outlook

Much of the Eurozone has likely slipped back into

recession

Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


2011 European Exports as a Percent of GDP

European Exports as a Percent of GDP

Highest Risk

High Risk

Moderate Risk

Low Risk

Lowest Risk

0.30%

5.79%

1.74%

3.50%

1.38%

1.21%

6.62%

2.84%

2.24%

0.42%

4.88%

1.38%

1.82%

1.10%

0.66%

2.02%

2.32%

3.38%

0.38%

2.59%

1.77%

1.15%

1.08%

1.36%

0.60%

1.73%

1.12%

1.55%

1.57%

0.94%

0.94%

2.81%

4.46%

2.90%1.83%

3.02%1.95%

0.95%

1.76%

1.80%

1.99%

2.79%0.16%

2.92%

0.66%1.51%

1.31%0.91%

2.94%0.13%

2.30%


Headwinds to Economic Growth

Headwinds to Economic Growth

Cutbacks at All Levels of Government

Slow Housing Market Recovery

The Ongoing European Debt Crisis

Uncertain Fiscal Policy Outlook

Slow Pace of Job Gains

The North Carolina Economy


-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

North Carolina Coincident IndexThree-Month Percent Change

North Carolina: Oct @ 0.7%

North Carolina – Current Economic Conditions

Growth across the state has slowed



North Carolina – Employment Growth & Unemployment Rate

Employment growth in the state has been fairly broad based, although improvement in the labor market has begun to slow. The state’s unemployment

rate remains well above the national average.

-4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2%

Information

Other Services

Construction

Financial Activities

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacturing

Prof. & Bus. Svcs.

Educ. & Health Svcs.

Government

Trade, Trans. & Utilities

Total Nonfarm

North Carolina Employment Growth by IndustryYear-over-Year Percent Change of 3-M Moving Average

October 2012

Number of Employees

Less

More


Unemployment RateEmployment

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

North Carolina Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rate: Oct @ 9.3%

12-Month Moving Average: Oct @ 9.7%


North Carolina – Home Prices and Construction

Home prices may have turned the corner. Multifamily building in the state’s larger cities has led the way in the state’s housing construction.

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

CoreLogic Home Price Index: NC vs. USIndex, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted

United States: Oct @ 145.1

North Carolina: Oct @ 128.8

Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Housing PermitsHome Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

North Carolina Housing PermitsThousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Single-Family: Oct @ 30,864

Single-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Oct @ 28,514

Multifamily, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Oct @ 16,599

NC Single-Family Avg. (1988 to 2003): 51,023


North Carolina – Personal Income Situation

Personal income growth picked up in the first half of the year, however slow job growth poses a headwind to continued strength

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

North Carolina Personal IncomeBars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change

North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 4.0%

North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 3.5%


Composition of Income GrowthPersonal Income

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

$275

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

$175

$200

$225

$250

$275

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

North Carolina: Wages & Salaries vs. Transfer PaymentsIn Billions, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Transfer Payments: Q2 @ $72.9 Billion

Wages and Salaries: Q2 @ $186.7 Billion


North Carolina – Economic Outlook

The slower pace of economic growth should continue through the second half of 2012.

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

North Carolina Leading IndexThree-Month Percent Change

North Carolina: Oct @ 2.7%

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Outlook

The headwinds to national growth will dictate that the cyclical nature of the North Carolina economy will likely continue to reflect a sub-par pace of economic growth.

Job growth in North Carolina will likely remain slow with only modest job gains occurring. Employment growth will continue to be

concentrated in business and professional services along with healthcare and education.

Manufacturing job gains have supported employment growth, but downside risks remain.

The major metro areas will continue to outperform the other areas of the state.

Leading Index

Local Government Fiscal Outlook


-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

House Price Appreciation and Property TaxesYear-over-Year Percent Change, 4-Quarter Moving Average

Purchase-Only Home Price Index: Q2 @ -0.6%

Property Tax Revenue: Q2 @ -8.4%

Property Tax Collections

Property tax collections continue to feel the effects

of home price declines. Price appreciation should

help to support property tax collections over the next

collection cycle

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12

Retail Sales vs. Disposable Personal Income3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year Percent Change

Disposable Personal Income: Oct @ 3.1%

Retail Sales: Oct @ 4.7%

Sales Tax Collections

Retail sales remain strong which should help to

support modest sales tax growth.

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Real State & Local Government Purchases Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change

Government Purchases-CAGR: Q3 @ 3.7%

Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q3 @ -0.6%

Forecast

Government Spending

Declining tax revenues have pressured funding for

schools, services and other infrastructure projects



Outlook for Local Budgets

Local Budget Outlook for North Carolina

What will the local budget picture look like?

Budget pressure at the state level should subside but funds to local governments will remain limited.

Federal government budget cuts, if they occur, also add downside risks to local budgets.

Home price stability across the state should help slow the pace of property tax revenue declines.

Sales tax growth will remain restrained due to cautious consumers and some likely federal tax increases.

It is important to understand that property tax revenue growth will not likely return to pre-recession levels anytime soon.

The regional budget situation will vary depending on economic growth; however, the new normal is slower economic growth and thus, slower revenue growth.


Expectations for the Future

Wells Fargo Economic Outlook

What should we look for in the U.S. economy in the

next few quarters?

A sustained sub-par pace of economic growth More of the same, the composition of growth will be

different

Business spending will contribute less to growth Investment in equipment & software will downshift

Consumer spending will remain modest Deleveraging and rebuilding of wealth will continue

The housing market will continue to improve Some regions will recover faster than others

The employment picture will slowly continue to improve Structural issues remain


Outlook Summary

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Real Gross Domestic Product1 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.3 2.2

Personal Consumption 1.8 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.3Business Fixed Investment 0.7 8.6 7.0 0.1 3.7Inventory Change 50.9 31.0 57.3 28.3 38.6Government Purchases 0.6 - 3.1 - 1.3 0.0 - 0.6Residential Construction - 3.7 - 1.4 12.0 13.8 15.7Net Exports - 419.7 - 408.0 - 406.6 - 357.2 - 299.8

Consumer Price Index2 1.6 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.2

Corporate Profits Before Taxes2 26.8 7.3 7.7 5.5 7.0

10- Year Treasury Note 3.22 2.78 1.81 1.81 2.15

Forecast as of: November 30, 20121 Compound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter2 Year-over-Year Percentage Change

Actual Forecast

Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook

Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC

Appendix


Recent Special Commentary

Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications

To view any of our past research please visit:

http://www.wellsfargo.com/economics

To join any of our research distribution lists please

visit:http://www.wellsfargo.com/

economicsemail

Date Title Authors

November- 19 The Economic Impact of the Fiscal Cliff: An Update Silvia, Brown & SwankoskiNovember- 16 California's Economic Recovery Rolled On In October VitnerNovember- 13 Income Tax Analysis: Who Pays? Silvia & BrownNovember- 09 Global Chartbook: November 2012 Bryson, Aleman & QuinlanNovember- 07 The Fiscal Cliff Debate In A Post- Election World Silvia & BrownNovember- 01 North Carolina Economic Outlook Vitner, Brown & Watt

October- 29 Housing Data Wrap- Up: October 2012 Vitner & KhanOctober- 24 2012 Holiday Sales Outlook Aleman, Iqubal & BrownOctober- 18 U.S. Fiscal Primer III: Federal Revenues Silvia, Bryson & BrownOctober- 18 Retirement in America: Extending the Finish Line Bryson, Iqbal & WattOctober- 12 The Great Unemplyoment Rate Debate Silvia, Watt & SwankoskiOctober- 08 The Unemployment Rate: Seasonality and Sampling Silvia, Iqbal & WattOctober- 02 Housing Chartbook: September 2012 Vitner, Khan & Silverman

September- 25 Local Budgets Under Pressure: A Fiscal Outlook Silvia & BrownSeptember- 17 Global Chartbook: September 2012 Bryson, Aleman & QuinlanSeptember- 10 U.S. Fiscal Primer II: Federal Government Spending Silvia, Bryson & BrownSeptember- 06 Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: Quarter 2 Vitner & KhanSeptember- 05 Brazilian Economy Slows Down; Better Times Ahead Aleman

August- 22 Mexico: Thanks to Auto Demand AlemanAugust- 15 California's Economy: Gaining Momentum Vitner & WattAugust- 14 Real GDP in Eurozone Slumped in Q2 BrysonAugust- 09 Rocky Mountain Summit: J uly 2012 SilviaAugust- 06 Orders and Production: No Time for Complacency Silvia, Quinlan & WattAugust- 01 U.S. Fiscal Primer I: The Deficit and Debt Silvia, Bryson & Brown

J uly- 19 U.S. States Grapple with Europe's Woes Vitner & BrownJ uly- 13 The Lowdown on Consumer Spending Vitner & QuinlanJ uly- 11 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals IX Silvia & WattJ uly- 10 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VIII Silvia & WattJ uly- 09 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VII Silvia & WattJ uly- 05 Housing Data Wrap- Up: J une 2012 Vitner & KhanJ uly- 02 Do Too Many Dollars Make Us an Inflation Nation? Bullard & Quinlan

J une- 29 2012 State Budget Outlook Silvia & BrownJ une- 22 Student Loans: The Best of Intentions Silvia, Seydl & WattJ une- 20 FOMC: Keep On Twisting Until Europe's Fever Breaks VitnerJ une- 20 The Fiscal Cliff: Likelihood and Economic Impact Silvia, Brown & WattJ une- 20 Credit Quality Monitor: J une 2012 Anderson & KashmarkekJ une- 19 The Fed: Same Goal, Different Method Silvia & KhanJ une- 15 Economic Growth Appears to Be Lost in a Fog of Uncertainty VitnerJ une- 07 What Happens if Span or Italy Leaves EMU? Bryson, Quinlan & SwankoskiJ une- 07 Housing Chartbook: May 2012 Vitner, Khan & Seydl

May- 29 Implications of a Euro Exit to Greece Bryson, Quinlan & SwankoskiMay- 24 Puerto Rico: Failure of the State AlemanMay- 22 Commercial Real Estate Snapshot: South Carolina Vitner & WattMay- 16 Expected Inflation Continues to Fall, Challenging the FOMC Bullard & SeydlMay- 16 Work or Retirement? The Employment Outlook for Seniors Bryson & WattMay- 15 The Not So Great Migration Silvia, Brown & SeydlMay- 07 North Carolina: A Better Year Ahead? Silvia, Brown & Watt

A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary

Client/Prospect Name

Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group

41

John Silvia … ...................... . … [email protected]

Global Head of Research and Economics

Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ………[email protected] Head of Research & Economics

Chief Economist

Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . .

[email protected]

Jay Bryson, Global Economist …………………....……….

[email protected]

Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist …………….

[email protected]

Sam Bullard, Senior Economist ………………………….

[email protected]

Anika Khan, Senior Economist .… . [email protected]

Senior EconomistsSarah Watt, Economic Analyst …………………………… .

[email protected]

Kaylyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Sara Silverman, Economic Analyst [email protected]

Economists

Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………[email protected]

Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………[email protected]

Michael A. Brown, Economist ………………… [email protected]

Economic Analysts

Administrative Assistants

Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A, Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company.

SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE

Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients

For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FSA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general informational purposes only.

Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant.

[email protected]

Cyndi Flowe, Administrative Assistant [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]
















2013 economic outlook (nclgba)

Documents