Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

2013 Crop Market Outlook

OK State Extension WebcastApr. 15, 2013

Chad HartAssociate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist

chart@iastate.edu515-294-9911

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Corn Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Area Planted (mil. acres) 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2 97.3

Yield (bu./acre) 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4 163.6

Production (mil. bu.) 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780 14,642

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 757

Imports (mil. bu.) 8 28 29 125 25

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,894 15,424

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,125 4,795 4,545 4,400 5,400

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 4,591 5,019 5,011 4,550 4,675

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,370 1,407 1,428 1,387 1,435

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,980 1,834 1,543 800 1,500

Total Use (mil. bu.) 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,137 13,010

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,708 1,128 989 757 2,414

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 3.55 5.18 6.22 6.90 4.80

Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Area Planted (mil. acres) 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 77.1

Yield (bu./acre) 44.0 43.5 41.9 39.6 44.5

Production (mil. bu.) 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,015 3,387

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 138 151 215 169 125

Imports (mil. bu.) 15 14 16 20 15

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,512 3,495 3,325 3,204 3,527

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,635 1,660

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 110 130 90 95 135

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,499 1,501 1,362 1,350 1,500

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,361 3,280 3,155 3,080 3,295

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 151 215 169 125 232

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 9.59 11.30 12.50 14.30 10.50

Source: USDA-WAOB, for 2009-12

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

March 1 Corn Stocks

Trade Expectations = 5 billion bushels

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

March 1 Soy Stocks

Trade Expectations = 935 million bushels

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Intended Acreage

Top: 2013 intended acresBottom: Change from 2012Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soybean Intended Acreage

Top: 2013 intended acresBottom: Change from 2012Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Total Intended Acreage

Top: 2013 intended acresBottom: Change from 2012Units: 1,000 acres

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Corn Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

World Soybean Production

Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Hog Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs.Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futuresCorn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Cattle Crush Margin

Source: ISU Extension

The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs.Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

U.S. Meat Production & Prices

Source: USDA-WAOB

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Export Shifts

Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Advance Corn Sales

Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Advance Soybean Sales

Source: USDA-FAS

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Grind for Ethanol

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Ethanol Stocks

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Corn Futures

Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

5.11 5.08

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Current Soybean Futures

Source: CME Group, 4/11/2013

11.6711.57

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Corn Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Soy Prices vs. Costs

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Precip

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

3 Month Outlook - Temps

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thoughts for 2013 and BeyondSupply/demand concernsSoil moisture issuesWetter, but warmer, springCorn demand has yet to rebound (but ethanol is starting to)Worldwide response to drought-induced pricing

2012/13USDA

2013/14Futures(4/11/13)

Corn $6.90 $5.11

Soybeans $14.30 $11.67

Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics

Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/