2013-09-25 columbia university public event...
TRANSCRIPT
Carlos Pascual Special Envoy and Coordinator for Interna7onal Energy
Affairs U.S. Department of State September 25, 2013
Global Energy Challenges and Opportuni6es
Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy
Five Revolu7ons
• Supply Transforma7on • Emerging Market Demand • “Liquid Gas” • Clean Power • Energy Access
2
Consump6on
Source and Notes: EIA, Short Term Energy Outlook (October 2012). Figures for 2012-‐13 are projec7ons.
U.S. Oil Import Dependence
Oil Supply and Demand (Mb/d)
Crude, other
Crude, Onshore L48
Oil Imports
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Volume (lea axis, Mb/d)
Share of consump7on (right axis, %)
3
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 2013
Biofuels Tight Oil
Other Onshore
Offshore Alaska
Other
2006 Im
ports
= 60%
2012 Im
ports
= 40%
Dry gas p
rodu
c7on
billion cubic meters (bcm) Projec7ons History
2011
U.S. Natural Gas Supply by Source
Nonassociated onshore
Associated with oil Coalbed methane
Nonassociated offshore
Alaska
Tight gas
Shale gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
50%
34%
6% 6% 4%
22%
16%
9% 7% 7% 2%
25%
6% 5%
Source: EIA, AE0 2013 4
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Dozens of Others Africa China Russia Brazil Venezuela Ecuador Mexico Canada United States UAE Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait Iraq Iran
Spare Capacity Global Produc6on
Challenges to Oil Market Stability
Global Oil Produc7on by Country (Mb/d)
Data source: EIA, IEO 2011 5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2006 2007 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Total Prim
ary En
ergy
Qua
drillion Btu
Total Non-‐OECD
Total OECD
United States
China
India
Source: U.S. Energy Informa7on Administra7on, 2011 Interna7onal Energy Outlook
World Energy Consump7on Forecast
6
Source: NYU Center on Interna7onal Coopera7on
China Oil Imports Passing Through Major Chokepoints
7
Japan and South Korea $16.80
UK $10.00
India $15.80
Lake Charles $3.22
Rio de Janeiro $16.08
Global Gas Markets
Bahia Blanca $16.58
World LNG Es7mated April 2013 Landed and Hub Prices ($US/mmbtu)
Spain $14.40
Belgium $9.67
China $16.40
Reserves (bcm)
Mozambique 2825
Tanzania 565
Israel 407
Produc6on (bcm)
2008 2035
Russia 662 881
Iran 130 279
Turkmenistan 71 136
Canada 175 192
United States 575 779
Norway 102 127
Australia 45 155
Qatar 78 260
Indonesia 74 119
Nigeria 32 119
Algeria 82 168
La7n America Total
148 292
8 Source: IEA, FERC, media and industry es7mates.
Henry Hub $3.97
NBP $12.39
LNG Is Integra7ng Gas Markets
Data source: BP Sta7s7cal Review
Pipeline and LNG Trade as a Share of Global Gas Consump7on
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011
Pipeline LNG
Annual growth rate 2001-‐11: -‐ Global gas consump7on 3% -‐ Global gas trade 5% -‐ LNG trade 9%
9
Europe Gas Trade 2011-‐2017
Nigeria
Trinidad & Tobago
Total European Demand (2011) – 500 bcm/y Es6mated European Demand (2017) – 561 bcm/y LNG Imports (2011) – 68 bcm/y LNG Imports (2017) – 74 bcm/y Pipeline Imports – 199 bcm/y Pipeline Imports (2017) -‐ 236 bcm/y
Current Pipelines Future Pipelines Current LNG Terminals Future LNG Terminals Current LNG Imports Future LNG Imports
10
South Stream
SCPX
Botas or TANAP
Shah Deniz
TAP
Iraq-‐Turkey Pipeline
Iraqi Pipeline System
Aphrodite (Cyprus)
Leviathan (Israel)
Tamar (Israel)
Source: BP, South Stream, IEA, Economist
Gas Field Pipeline – Exis7ng Pipeline-‐ Planned/ Under Construc7on
Selected Eastern Mediterranean/Eurasian Oil and Gas Infrastructure
11
Global Power Sector Investments, Cumula7ve (2012-‐2035)
Ø More than 40% of global investment in the power sector goes to transmission and distribu7on. Ø Nearly two-‐thirds of investment is in the non-‐OECD to meet growing demand.
57% 11%
32%
Power: $16.9 trillion
Genera7on
Transmission
Distribu7on
New Investment in Electricity Genera6on, 2012-‐2035 ($ billion)
OECD Non-‐OECD World Coal 451 1,157 1,608 Gas 436 605 1,041 Oil 16 59 75
Total Fossil 903 1,821 2,724
Total Nuclear 360 583 943 Bio-‐energy 368 280 648 Hydro 418 1,130 1,548 Wind 1,145 984 2,129 Solar PV 717 542 1,259 Other* 226 208 434
Total Renewable 2,874 3,144 6,018
TOTAL GENERATION 4,137 5,548 9,685
Source: IEA, WEO 2012, New Policies Scenario * Includes geothermal, concentrated solar, and marine
12
Growth in Chinese demand for coal driving global demand
13 Source: BP Sta7s7cal Review 2013
Source: Chandler, William; Wang, Yanjia; Gwin, Holly; Chen, Shiping, China Power, Benefits and Costs of the “Strong, Smart Grid”, ENTRI, May 2012
Gas Can Help Reduce Chinese GHG Emissions
14
Energy Impera7ves
Retain Compe77veness
Protect Energy Security
Reduce Pollu7on
Fuel Mix
15
Sharing Best Prac7ces
Sustainable Unconventional
Gas Development
16
Fiscal
Incentives
Reducing Seismic Impact
Community Engagement
Overcoming Infrastructure Challenges
Protecting
Water Quality
Water Supply Management
Natural Gas: Infrastructure and Policy
Sources: EIA, IEA, Industry Sources 17
New African regions for oil and gas explora7on
Source: EIA, IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, BP Sta7s7cal Review, Industry Sources
West African Transform Margin
Offshore Mozambique
Uganda
Somalia/ Ethiopia
Oil
Gas
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2015 2020 2025 2030
million ba
rrels p
er day
African Oil Produc6on (2011-‐2030)
Nigeria
Libya
Angola
Algeria
Other Africa
0
100
200
300
400
500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcma
African Natural Gas Produc6on (2010-‐2030)
Nigeria
Libya
Algeria
Other Africa
Offshore Tanzania
Offshore Kenya
Reserves
Oil (billion bbl)
Gas (Bcm)
Algeria 12.2 4507.1 Angola 13.5 365.4 Egypt 4.3 2189.8 Libya 47.1 1495.8 Mozambique 2825.0 Nigeria 37.2 5113.3 Tanzania 565.0 Other Africa 15.9 1232.3
18
The World at Night
New York State Population: 19.5 million Electricity Generation: ~40 Gigawatts Consumption per capita: 2,050 kWh
Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) Population: 791 million Electricity Generation: ~40 Gigawatts Consumption per capita: 52 kWh
Source: IEA Energy Poverty Excerpt from WEO 2010 19
20 2011 2030
2.7 Billion
Investment for Access
$1.5 Trillion
$48 Billion
1.3 Billion
People Investment
Source: IEA
600 Million
(3% of total investment needed by 2030)
Carlos Pascual Special Envoy and Coordinator for Interna7onal Energy
Affairs U.S. Department of State September 25, 2013
Global Energy Challenges and Opportuni6es
Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy