2011 CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL – RACE PROFILES

Race Profiling

There are many different ways of looking at horse races with the most common being

form based, that is, looking at each horse in the race and comparing it with all the others

taking into account the race conditions.

Another way of approaching a race is to use a technique called race profiling.

Race profiling does not attempt to assess the horses instead it looks at the previous

winners of a race and uses the characteristics of the winners to build a profile of the

most likely winner. These profiles can have many factors depending on the significance

attached to each and the amount of data that is available to the profiler. This profile is

then used to find a horse whose profile most closely matches the profile of previous

winners.

The factors used may include such things as weight carried, number of previous runs,

number of days since last run and age. This method does not work for all races as a lot of

races are won by a wide range of horses without favouring a specific type, however,

many races, particularly the more valuable races, are won regularly by horses that show

a specific set of qualities.

The Cheltenham Festival is the pinnacle of the National Hunt season in the UK. The

festival is held over four days, Tuesday to Friday, in March, and attracts top quality

national hunt horses for top quality races. There is a feature race every day, with the

Champion Hurdle on the Tuesday, the Queen Mother Champion Chase on the

Wednesday, the Ladbrokes World Hurdle on the Thursday and the Gold Cup on the

Friday.

The following are the notable characteristics for each race due to be run at this year’s

festival and the plans are to apply these, once the final line ups have been determined, to

provide a short list of likely contenders which will be detailed in a daily post in the Club

Tips section of the members area.

Day 1 – Tuesday 15th March

Race 1 – 13:30 Stan James Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Positives are horses trained in Ireland who have provided 11 winners from the last 21

years. However in recent years there has seen a switch towards hurdling talent being

trained in Britain with the likes of Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Phillip Hobbs

doing well. Eight of the last 10 winners of the race had won last time out and also worth

noting is that 10/10 had won at least 50 per cent of their hurdle starts. 10 of the last 11

winners ran in the previous 45 days. The favourites have a poor recent record with the

previous six finishing 0-5-3-2-5-3.

Race 2 – 14:05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Grade 1)

Only one favourite has obliged in the past ten years, but no horse has started bigger than

9-1 in that same period and it pays to focus on those at the head of the market in

particular the 2nd, 3rd and 4th in the betting. Eight of the last 10 winners were aged

between five and seven. Previously top rated hurdlers have also performed well.

Race 3 – 14:40 Festival Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

Despite being a fiercely competitive handicap, horses at the top end of the betting have

done well in this race in recent years. Eight of the last 11 winners have won at single

figure odds so positives are horses in the first 4 in the betting although only two

favourites have won since 1977. The last 11 winners carried less than 11 stone and no

horse aged 11+ has been placed since 1997 – from 34 runners. Six of the last eight

winners won on their previous outing (in fact in 2010 the 1-2-3 all won last time out,

from only five of the 24 runners who had – including the 33/1 winner).

Race 4 – 15:20 Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1)

Negatives are beaten last time out with 23 of the last 27 winners winning their previous

start. Only one five-year-old since 1985 has won and just three winners have been older

than eight since 1951. Key trends are 16 of the last 22 winners had winning Cheltenham

form and 14 of the last 19 winners had finished 1st or 2nd at the festival before. 18 of the

last 20 winners started in the first 6 in the betting. Irish trained horses have won seven

of the last 12 runnings.

Race 5 – 16:00 Glenfarclas Handicap Chase (Cross Country)

Positives are first 3 in the betting and Irish trained horses have won all six renewals –

four were trained by Enda Bolger. Nina Carberry has ridden the winner of three of the

last four renewals. Negatives are British trained horses, younger than 8 and never run in

any kind of cross country race before.

Race 6 – 16:40 David Nicholson Mares’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

There are no key trends as this is only the 4th running of the race and has been won for

the last two years by the heavily supported Quevaga, and a hat-trick of wins is surely

hers for the taking although connections may opt to take on the boys either in the World

Hurdle.

Race 7 – 17:15 Centenary Novices Handicap Chase (Class A listed)

Formerly known as the Jewson Novices Handicap and all six winners won or finished

second last time out and such horses have been responsible for the 1-2-3 four times and

a 1-2 on another.

Day 2 – Wednesday 16th March

Race 1 – 13:30 The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders’ Novices’

Chase)

Positives are horses trained by Jonjo O’Neil who has won five renewals – including four

of the last nine. 25 of the last 27 winners finished in the first 4 last time out and the last

three winners finished in the first 2 last time out. Negatives are only one 6 year-old has

won since 1989 and no successful 5 year-old for over 30 years. Paul Nicholls saddled just

one placed horse in from 13 starters – of which nine started in the first five in the

betting. Just one winning favourite since 1992.

Race 2 – 14:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

23 of the last 25 winners started in the first 6 in the betting. Just one winner (in 1974)

aged older than 6 in the races history (since 1971). Nicky Henderson is 0-21 in this race.

Only two of his runners since 1990 have finished any higher than tenth. 26 of the last 27

winners won or came 2nd on their most recent start. Top-six finishers in the previous

season’s Festival Bumper have a good record.

Race 3 – 14:40 RSA Chase (Grade 1)

Positives are the favourite and trained by Willie Mullins. The last 11 winners had raced

at least three times over fences. 22 of the last 23 winners finished 1st or 2nd last time

out. 14 of the last 16 winners were aged 7 or 8; just two 6 year olds have won since 1978.

Race 4 – 15:20 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1)

Positives are ran in the Tingle Creek or Game Spirit Chase, eight of the last 11 winners

contested the Tingle Creek Chase the same season. 10 of the last 12 winners started no

bigger than 5/1. 19 of the last 26 winners had won or been placed at the Festival before.

Race 5 – 16:00 Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3)

Positives are Irish trained, last-time-out winners, fresh horses (either a few runs this

season or running off a longish break), Negatives are officially rated 148+, only one

winning favourite in the last 16 renewals. 11 of the last 13 winners have carried no more

than 11 stone.

Race 6 – 16:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Positives are last time out winners, in the top third of the handicap. Negatives are

starting at a single-figure price just five horses priced at under 10/1 have finished in the

first 7 places.

Race 7 – 17:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Standard Open NH Flat Race) (Grade 1)

Willie Mullins has trained the winner six times in the last 14 years (five of which were a

once-raced 5 year-old). Last time out winners have won 16 of the 18 runnings. Irish-

trained horses have won 14 of the 18 runnings. 15 of the 18 winners had won a Bumper

comprising 14+ runners. 10 of the last 14 runnings have been won by a 5 year-old. 14 of

the 18 winners emerged from the first 6 in the betting.

Day 3 – Thursday 17th March

Race 1 – 13:30 Jewson Novice Chase (Listed)

The race is a new event (and therefore no stats) for the 2011 Cheltenham Festival, not to

be confused with the old Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase which has been renamed the

Centenary Novices’ Chase that has now become Tuesday’s seventh race.

Race 2 – 14:05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

Positives are last time out winners, nine of the last 15 winners won last time out. Only

one winning 5 year-old in 36 runnings of the race. 13 of the last 18 winners had

previously won over 3 miles. Just one winning favourite in the last 16 runnings.

Race 3 – 14:40 Ryanair Chase (Grade 1)

11 of the 12 winners and runner’s-up had won at Cheltenham before. Last season

produced a lower-than-average representation of previous course winners (five from 13)

but they were still responsible for the supplying the 1-2. All six previous winners were

officially rated between 152-157 beforehand. Five of the six winners started at less than

6/1.

Race 4 – 15:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle (Grade 1)

No 5 year-old has ever won, although plenty have been placed. No Irish trained winner

for 15 years. French-bred horses have won five of the last nine runnings. The last 23

winners finished in the first 4 last time out and 14 of the 16 winners finished in the first

2 last time out. No shock results of late. 8/1 is the highest SP in last ten years.

Race 5 – 16:00 Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) (Grade 3)

Positives are French-bred horses who have won six of the last 11 renewals (and been

runner-up in four of the other five). Only one winning favourite since 1981 (nine of the

last favourites finished unplaced). 17 of the last 19 winners finished in the first 4 last

time out. 17 of the last 19 winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival before.

Race 6 – 16:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur

Riders)

Only two of the last 31 winners were aged 7 or younger (yet the last three beaten

favourites were aged 6 and 7!). 8 and 9 year-olds have won 13 of the last 17 renewals (the

last three winners have been 9 year-olds). No Irish trained winner for 28 years. Last

time out form is not necessarily important – six of the last eight winners were unplaced

in their last run.

Day 4 – Friday 18th March

Race 1 – 13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

Positives are first 4 in the betting, the Adonis Hurdle winner, had final prep-run in

February, 15 of the last 17 winners had won at least twice over hurdles. 12 of the last 17

winners (including all of the last six) started in the first 4 in the betting. Negatives are

beaten last time out. Only one Northern trained winner since 1976.

Race 2 – 14:05 Vincent O’Brien County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3)

Positives are 5 & 6yr olds, 39 of last 48 winners were aged 5 or 6 (5 year olds have won

seven of the last twelve renewals, from just one-fifth of the total runners in that period).

Ran in the Totesport Trophy and/or MCR Hurdle, the Imperial Cup winner, the Irish

Novices, officially rated 128-135. 32 of the last 36 renewals were won by a horse starting

at no bigger than 16/1. Negatives are, run less than four times earlier in the season. No

winner has carried more than 11st 8Ib for 50 years (only one horse has carried more into

a place since 1979).

Race 3 – 14:40 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Positives are all six winners had run at least three times over hurdles. 16 of the 18 win-

and-placed horses finished 1st or 2nd last time out. Negatives are outside the front five

in the betting.

Race 4 – 15:20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1)

No winner older than 10 since 1969. Only one winner (Cool Dawn) aged 10 in the last 17

renewals and just four ten-year-olds have placed since then from 35 to try, including

very many fancied horses. 16 of the last 17 winners (and all of the last 11) aged between 7

and 9.

Nine of the last 10 winners were officially rated 166+. 11 of the last 13 winners were

placed at the Festival before. 10 of the last 11 winners had won a race that season. The

last 10 winners started in the first 3 in the betting, although there have been 10 horses

priced 33/1 and bigger placed since 1997. Horses beaten in the Gold Cup before are 2-67

since 1994. Only See More Business (having won in 1999…and he was “carried out” by a

horse pulling up injured in 1998 rather than being beaten on merit) and Kauto Star

(second in 2008 and winner 12 months later – but had also won in 2007) have bucked

this trend.

Race 5 – 16:00 Christie’s Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup

Positives are front runners, horses at bigger prices. 15 of the last 20 winners were aged

nine or younger, from only fractionally over 50% of runners within that period. 20 of the

last 25 winners won last time out. Of the five winners aged 10+ three had been previous

winners of the race (Double Silk, Fantus and Earthmover).

Race 6 – 16:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle

A new addition to the festival with only two previous runnings so there are very little

stats to work with although at the last 15 festivals over 50% (26-50) of Handicap Hurdle

winners also won last time out, from just less than 20% overall representation.

Race 7 – 17:15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase Challenge Cup (Grade 3)

Positives are novices, the Irish, rated between 129-134, trained by Nicky Henderson or

Paul Nicholls, had their prep run over hurdles last time out, previous course winner. 12

of the last 14 winners had won over 2m2f+. 42 of the last 48 win-and-placed runners

were aged under 10. 30 of the last 36 renewals were won by horses that started at no

bigger than 10/1.

Summary

This year’s festival contains 27 ultra-competitive top class races that would challenge

even the hardiest of form book students to unravel and it will be interesting to see how

significant the previous key trends pan out during the four days of intense action. Our

plan is to review each of the races on a daily basis and to provide a short-list of likely

contenders by applying the positive and negative trends detailed in this article. The

resultant selections will be posted each race day morning in the Members Tips area and

hopefully these will provide some decent priced winners or in the very least a good run

for our money, as after all we are talking Cheltenham here and one thing is for sure

every single runner will be trying its hardest to claim a prize at the theatre of dreams!

Best of luck

Steve Carter

Editor – A number of well-respected sources of information were referred to in the

compilation of this article and we would like to acknowledge our thanks in particular to

the guys at http://www.allaboutbetting.co.uk for their input.