2011 11 09 migbank daily technical analysis report

8/3/2019 2011 11 09 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report

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MIG BANK / Forex Broker14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 Neuchâtel Switzerland

Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 [email protected] www.migbank.com

Please note: None of the strategies below represent trading advice or trading recommendations of any kind. Please refer to our full disclaimer.

WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH

MA

S-TERMMULTI-DAY

L-TERMMULTI-WEEK

STRATEGY/POSITION

ENTRYLEVEL

OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP

EUR/USD SHORT 3 1.3655 1.3520/1.3140/1.2860 (Entered 09/11/2011) 1.3840

GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.5840 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400 1.5740

USD/JPY Exited at 77.70.

USD/CHF SHORT 3 0.9015 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250 (Entered 07/11/2011) 0.9130

USD/CAD Buy Stop 3 1.0250 1.0360/1.0480/1.0670 1.0050

AUD/USD SHORT 2 1.0570 1.0010/0.9710 (Entered 01/11/2011) 1.0470

GBP/JPY Buy limit 3 122.70 124.10/126.00/127.32 121.30

EUR/JPY SHORT 3 106.45 105.45/104.00/100.76 (Entered 09/11/2011) 107.50

EUR/GBP Look to sell.

EUR/CHF Sell stop 3 1.2130 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002 1.2230

GOLD Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

SILVER SHORT 3 34.1300 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400 (Entered 01/11/2011) 35.6880

DISCLAIMER &DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT09 November, 2011

Ron William, CMT, MSTA

Bijoy Kar, CFA

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1 unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been h it the stop will be moved to the entry

point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective (PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All orders are valid until the next report is

published, or a trading strategy alert is sent between reports.



2

DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT 09 November, 2011

www.migbank.com

Resuming sharp reversal into 1.3140.

EUR/USD is resuming its sharp reversal from key overhead resistance

(primarily an important 2 year trend-line). The dramatic move has confirmed

the emotionally charged bull-trap that we had anticipated, which has been

driven by recent positive EU News.

Key support is now holding at 1.3653 (18th Oct low). A sustained

confirmation beneath here will unlock further downside scope into 1.3146

(Oct swing low) and that all-important psychological level at 1.3000.

Further pressure is also weighing from broad risk-related proxies. The euro

currently shares a high correlation of 0.85% with the S&P500 which is now

falling sharply from its recent multi-week highs.

Inversely, USD Index has turned back higher above its long-term 200-day

MA. The bulls are likely to recapture the recent 6-month highs near 80.

Speculative (net long) liquidity flows are holding steady around their recent

spike highs (3 standard deviations from the yearly average). This will likely

remain strong and help resume the USD’s major bull-run from its historic

oversold extremes (momentum, sentiment and liquidity).

Special Report: EUR/USD ˝A Fall From Grace˝ ? Decline Targets 1.3770/1.3410. VIDEO

MIG Bank Webinar: “Why the US dollar is likely to gain up to 30% in 6-12 months.”

US Dollar Interview on Bloomberg

S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY

SHORT 3: 1.3655, Objs:1.3520/1.3140/1.2860, Stop: 1.3840

EUR/USD

Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 454

EUR/USD

EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD Index daily, weekly chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMA (1.4104)

BERMUDATRIANGLE FAILED

BREAKOUTS

UPTREND(2 YEARS)

EUR/USD (Daily)

BREAKOUTZONE

(1.4000)

SHARP REVERSALAT KEY RESISTANCE

TARGETS 1.3000 & 1.2870

+

-

USD INDEX(4 YEARS)

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

+27% +19%

TRIGGER(15000)

COT LIQUIDITY

+10%SO FAR

3 STD ABOVEONE YEARAVERAGE

EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS

9

13

USD INDEX

200-DMA(75.72)

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNALS

BREAKOUT ZONE

EUR 57.6%, JPY 13.6%, GBP 11.9%CAD 9.1%, SEK 4.2%, CHF 3.6%

6 MONTHHIGH

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf





http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8JxLscMBUHY&feature=player_embedded


http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8e1265eb-a0b4-4b43-87d3-e5be91699f54




http://www.bloomberg.com/video/75644864/

mailto:[email protected]










3


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Further corrective downswing anticipated.

A break back over the 1.6167 high would lead us to remove the strategy

below from the report.

GBP/USD is rising very gradually in the hourly timeframe, however,

structure suggests that we are in the midst of a larger corrective phase, with

scope for a further swing lower to test the 1.5853 region, where a higher low

is favoured to form, for a fresh swing back towards 1.6167.

We are mindful of the general range bound nature of this market in the

medium-term but note that near-term structure is suggestive of further gains,

back to 1.6167.

While above 1.5632 further strength is favoured. However, if this region

fails to contain the current corrective phase, then the bias will turn negativeagain.

Sterling is expected to stay stronger then most, should that the US Dollar

enter into a strengthening phase.


Buy limit 3 at 1.5840, Objs: 1.5940/1.6153/1.6400, Stop: 1.5740.

GBP/USD

Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: [email protected], Phone: +41 32 7228 424

GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

GBP/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







4


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Probability now favours retracement to pre-intervention levels.

Exited at 77.70. USD/JPY is edging lower, with the probability now favouring

another price retracement back to pre-intervention levels and potentially

even a new post world war record low beneath 75.35.

Sentiment in the option markets continues to suggest that USD/JPY buying

pressure remains overcrowded as everyone in the market continues to try

and be the first to call the market bottom.

This may inspire a temporary, but dramatic price spike through

psychological levels at 75.00 and perhaps even sub-74.00. Such a move

would help flush out a number of downside barriers and stop-loss orders.

The medium / long-term view remains bullish, as USD/JPY verges toward a

major long-term 40 year cycle upside reversal. Expect key cycle inflection

pints to trigger into November-December this year, offering a sustained

move above our upside trigger level at 80.00/60, then 82.00 and 83.30.

Keep in mind that such a scenario would help reactivate the longer-term

technical bias, including prior monthly DeMark™ exhaustion signals, within

the ending diagonal pattern, which is part of the long-term cycle.

Please select the link below to review our MIG Bank webinar on USD/JPY.

This is a featured update to our previous Special Report

USD/JPY’s Long-Term Structural Change


Exited at 77.70.


USD/JPY

USD/JPY daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

83.30

USD/JPY(Daily1 YEAR)

QUAKE

SHOCK!

POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR I)

POSTG7

MOVE (I)HIGH

82.00

PIR II

80.24

POSTBOJ

MOVE (II)HIGH

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL AHEADOF NEW POST WWII LOW 75.35

POSTBOJ

MOVE (III)HIGH

MONTHLY DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

USD/JPY Weekly(2007 – 2011)

ENDINGDIAGONAL

PATTERNBREAKOUT

TARGET (85-79)

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-03-29_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_trade-alert-update-on-USDJPY.pdf



http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d77a35a0-4a11-44fa-a883-c95e01661d21










5


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A corrective phase is now favoured.

USD/CHF tested the 61.8% retrace of the 0.9316-0.8568 fall near 0.9000,

having met 0.9068 thus far. This was followed by a break under hourly

trend-line support, which may now signal the start of a corrective phase totest the region close to 0.8900 initially. Focusing on the hourly timeframe,

structure favours a further swing lower.

Medium-term structure is suggestive of a re-test of the zone close to 0.8242

ahead of a possible return to 0.9316. However, should EUR/CHF reach the

1.2000 level again, then movement in USD/CHF may be affected by the

efforts of the SNB to maintain the floor in EUR/CHF. Back under 0.7712 is

required to change the medium-term bullish bias.

A sustained push back over 0.9083 will likely target a return towards therecent high at 0.9316.

Safe haven flows may yet intensify into the Swiss Franc as Italian

government bond yields push higher despite last week’s ECB rate cut. See

our EUR/CHF page for more on this.


Short 3 at 0.9015, Objs: 0.8900/0.8550/0.8250, Stop: 0.9130.

USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


USD/CHF

USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







6


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Bulls hold gains above psychological 1.0000 level.

USD/CAD’s short-term price activity remains positive, following the sharp

bullish reversal from the psychological 1.0000 level (prior trading range).

Positive momentum needs to push above 1.0264 and 1.0400 to rebuild the

potential major upside reversal higher above the old resistance level at

1.0673 (August high & Congestion zone).

Only a sustained close beneath here will unlock bearish setbacks into the

long-term 200-day MA at 0.9817 and 0.9726 (31st

Aug low).

A strong directional confirmation above here will open a much larger

recovery into 1.0850 plus. This would extend the upside breakout from the

rate’s ending triangle pattern, which was part of a major Elliott Wave cycle.

EUR/CAD is extending above its 200-day MA, within a large multi-monthtrading range. Key resistance continues to hold at 1.4379 (June swing high),

which has for some time marked a strong distribution pattern.

CHF/CAD is retesting its support nearby the 200-day MA at 1.1314,

following the dramatic price slide lower (triggered by the SNB intervention).

The cross-rate has now retraced more than half of its 2011 gains.


Buy Stop 3: 1.0250, Objs:1.0360/1.0480/1.0670, Stop: 1.0050


USD/CAD

USD/CAD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

USD/CAD (Weekly)

CONFIRMATIONABOVE 1.0680

OPENS LARGERRECOVERY

DEMARK™ BUY SIGNAL

USD/CAD (Daily)

August High(1.0673)

200-DMA(0.9817)

200-DMA(1.3841)

MAJOR RESISTANCE

50% (1.3570)

61.8% (1.3379)

EUR/CAD (Daily)

REVERSALPATTERN

CHF/CAD (Daily)

200-DMA(1.1314)

50%

(1.1488)

61.8% (1.0893)







7


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Sharp setbacks weigh.

AUD/USD’s sharp setbacks continue to weigh. The move was triggered

from key resistance at 1.0765 (01st Sept high) and is now holding beneath

the 200-day MA (1.0415).

A sustained move below here is likely to mount downside pressure on the

rate’s multi-year uptrend.

The bears need to confirm beneath 1.0322 (26th

Oct low) and 1.0188 (18th

Oct low). A break here will unlock sharp setbacks into 1.0000.

Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains stable against the New Zealand dollar.

The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds

beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2320 and 1.2100.

The Aussie dollar has reversed gains against the Japanese yen and is now

trading back below the long-term 200-day MA which is currently at 83.11.

Near-term support continues to hold at 77.63 (18th

Oct low). A break here

will resume downside scope into 76.70 and signal further unwinding of risk

appetite.


SHORT 2: 1.0570, Obj: 1.0010/0.9710, Stop: 1.0470

AUD/USD


AUD/USD daily, weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

200-DMACAPSBEARMKT

AUD/NZD(Daily)

KEY SUPPORT1.2319 / 1.2100

200-DMA

(83.12)

13

38.2% (76.70)

61.8%

(68.47)

50% (72.58)

AUD/JPY(Daily)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL

RESUMPTION OF

BREAKDOWNADDS TO

RISK AVERSION

AUD/USD (Weekly)

38.2%

(0.9144)

50% (0.8546)

61.8% (0.7947)

3 YEARUPTRENDIS UNDER

PRESSURE

STRUCTURALLEVEL

KEYZONE

AUD/USD(1 YEAR)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS

200-DMA(1.0413)







8


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Consolidates in a tight hourly range.

GBP/JPY continues to consolidate within a tight hourly range of

approximately 100 pips, with a breakout now sought. Given the nature of

the rise last week, which was triggered by a series of clustered stops, there

remains an expectation of a return to the 122.38/65 region, ahead of further

strength.

Bigger picture a rise towards 129.00/130.00 is possible, given the daily

structure present since 116.84. A push back under 121.39 is needed to

negate this positive structure.

Assuming that further short-term strength can be realised, a lower high

would be anticipated close to 129.00, near the 200 day moving average

which is currently at 128.73. Thus the region between 129.00 and 130.00

would be attractive for renewed short positioning. In the meantime, a higher

low may form close to the old 122.38/65 ceiling, with a short-term swing

back into the 129.00-130.00 region in mind.


Buy limit 3 at 122.70, Objs: 124.10/126.00/127.32, Stop: 121.30

GBP/JPY

GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP







9


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Possible bear flag forming in the daily timeframe.

EUR/JPY formed a corrective structure in the hourly timeframe and has

subsequently broken under 106.50. In fact in the daily timeframe, the recent

consolidation also appears as a bearish flag, warning of a substantial fall

ahead. This would then open up 104.75 again and potentially lower.

However, an earlier push back over 108.25 will be suggestive of a more

substantial recovery higher from 104.75, with a return to 111.60 then

possible.

Should the region near 112.50 be met a lower high would be favoured to

form in that region, close to the 200 day moving average, currently at

112.49.

A sustained hold over the 200 day moving average will turn the outlookbullish.


SHORT 3 at 106.45, Objs: 105.45/104.00/100.76, Stop: 107.50

EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP


EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/JPY







10


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0.8548 contains the downside for now.

EUR/GBP continues to trade just above long-term trend-line support from

0.8068. A push under 0.8548 is expected which will immediately target the

0.8530/31 double bottom that we have discussed in recent reports. A

sustained break under 0.8530 will weaken the longer-term outlook

considerably, ending the general range bound trade that we have witnessed

thus far. Scope would then be seen for a return back down to 0.8068, over

time. In fact, should stresses in the Euro Zone intensify then it is possible

that Sterling may gain safe haven status.

Failure to break the floor of the medium-term range will warn of a return

back towards 0.8831 where short positioning would become attractive

again.

A move back over 0.8960 is required to neutralise our mild bearish bias, in a

generally rangebound environment.


Look to sell if a break under 0.8530 can be realised.

EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/GBP








11


www.migbank.com

Initial supply seen close to 1.2474 high.

EUR/CHF has remained strong particularly in light of the movement in

Italian government bond markets, where a minor inversion in the yield curve

is beginning to form, with 5 year yields trading at 6.914% and 10 year yields

at 6.774%, at the time of writing. This can only add to the potential for

funding problems to occur with the large amount of debt that needs to be

rolled over in the next 6 months. Also, as mentioned before, it highlights the

inability of the ECB to contain sovereign debt yields by simply lowering the

base rate. This may lead to a renewed desire for a safe haven, with

downside pressure returning to EUR/CHF.

Initial resistance has been seen close to the recent high at 1.2474, with

scope for a further correction, towards 1.2300 initially. Should a re-test of

the 1.2000 region take place with a fall under 1.1973 also following, this

would warn of the end of the recovery seen since 1.0075, increasing the

probability of a return to this level.

In any case, strong resistance is anticipated should this rate reach the

1.2500 zone. The recent failure to maintain trade above the 50 week

moving average is also noted.

Time will tell whether or not the SNB will be able to hold back the possible

flow of funds into Swiss Francs that may occur if further stresses lead to yet

higher yields in Italian government bonds.

S-T TREND L-T TREND

Sell stop 3 at 1.2130, Objs: 1.2030/1.1526/1.1002, Stop: 1.2230.

EUR/CHF weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP

EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP








12


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Breaking above $1760 is positive for the short-term.

Gold remains fragile after its dramatic 20% price fall, which helped confirm

the extreme overbought conditions (marked by DeMark™ indicators). This

also timed a key cycle peak, ahead of that all-important $2000 glass-ceiling.

However, short-term price activity is building constructively higher above key

level at 1760. A sustained move above here would open moves into 1844.

Speculative (net long) flows remain a concern having recently breached a

key downside level which may threaten over 2 years of sizeable long gold

positions.

There is heightened risk of a much larger decline if we confirm a weekly

close beneath $1600 and $1554-30 (200-day MA/swing low), which has not

been breached in 3 years!

A number of “bargain hunting” trend-followers will be watching this

benchmark “line in the sand” for repeat support or a potential big squeeze

lower into $1300 and perhaps even $1040-1000. Remember, this would still

offer a unique buying opportunity in the near future.

Please select links for in-depth Gold coverage:

Special Report “Gold’s mountainous peak at risk…beneath $1600” VIDEO

Bloomberg Countdown CNBC Squawk Box MIG Bank Gold Webinar video(BLOOMBERG & CNBC REPORTS)


Awaiting New Sell Trade Setup.

GOLD

Gold weekly, daily chart and COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP


TRENDCHANNEL (12 YEARS)

I

RISK ZONE III

CONFIRMATION BELOW $1530

UNLOCKS LARGER DECLINE INTO $1300 & $1040-1000

26%

34%

20%SO FAR

25%

II

COT NET LONGSPECULATORPOSITIONS

OVER 2 YEARS OFSIZEABLE LONG

GOLD POSITIONSUNDER THREAT

IF KEY LEVEL BREAKS

200-DMANOT BROKENIN 3 YEARS!

DEMARK™ SIGNAL WARNED OF GOLD’S OVERBOUGHTCONDITIONS

BREAKOUT

$1704

$1600

DOWNSIDE: $1600 / $1530 UPSIDE: $1760 / $1844

GOLD KEY TRIGGER LEVELS

$1532

DOUBLETOP

$1760

http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-09-13_Gold_Special_Report_(RW).pdf



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=haKdlGKWyjQ&feature=player_embedded&list=PL953E96C7BE48D2FA




http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202

http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-11/gold-may-fall-below-1-700-before-extending-bull-rally-technical-analysis.html



http://www.cnbc.com/id/44310840









http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=8f81a2e3-e29b-4031-b370-a85149271145

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000042202






13


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Key support at $26.0700.

Silver’s latest price capitulation is a painful reminder to the investment

community that lightning can strike twice. Note, this marks the second time

silver has crashed, following its 30% fall last April.

The move was triggered following a DeMark™ exhaustion sell signal and

has now wiped out almost 50% of silver’s prior gains (taken from Silver’s all-

time high at 49.7900) which was last seen in 1980.

Such a dramatic move traditionally produces volatile trading ranges. This

allows the market to have enough time to recover and accumulate renewed

buying interest.

Expect a large trading range to hold between $37.0000-26.0700 over the

multi-week / month horizon, with downside macro risk into $21.5165 (61.8%

Fib-1999 bull market) and $20.0000. This would still maintain silver’s long-

term uptrend and help offer a potential buying opportunity for the eventual

resumption higher.

Continue to watch the gold-silver “mint” ratio which has now accelerated

higher by 67%, suggesting further risk aversion over the next few weeks.


SHORT 3: 34.1300, Obj: 29.9700/26.0700/23.3400, Stop: 35.6880

SILVER

Spot Silver daily, weekly chart and Gold /Silver “mint” ratio, Bloomberg Finance LP


BULLMARKET

FROM1999

Silver Monthly (since 1980)

13

38.2% (32.3135)

50% (26.9150)

61.8%

(21.5165)

I

II

OVER 30 YEAR BASE PATTERN

Silver HITS 1980 Spike High! DEMARK™ SELL SIGNAL

13 YEAR LEVEL

UNWINDING 67% FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY

Gold/Silver "Mint" Ratio

KEYSUPPORT(26.0700)

DEMARK™ SELL SIGNALS

Silver (Daily)

200 DMA(36.5125)







14


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including any direct, indirect or consequential damages.

Material InterestsMIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have or

have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.

Copyright

All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or

distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK.

Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1

unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will bemoved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective

(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All

orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is

sent between reports.

DISCLAIMER

No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or recommendation, or advice, to

buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect any transactions, or to conclude any legal act

of any kind whatsoever.

The information published and opinions expressed are provided by MIG BANK for personal

use and for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK

makes no representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and opinions

expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In particular, nothing contained constitutes

financial, legal, tax or other advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be

made solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a qualified expert before

making any investment decision.

All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be reliable but they have no

guarantees that this is the case. Therefore, whilst every effort is made to ensure that the

content is accurate and complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.

LEGALTERMS



15


www.migbank.comRon WilliamTechnical [email protected]

MIG [email protected]

14, rte des Gouttes d’Or CH-2008 NeuchâtelTel.+41 32 722 81 00

Bjioy KarTechnical [email protected]

CONTACT

Howard FriendChief Market [email protected]



http://www.migbank.com/





http://www.migbank.com/



2011 11 09 migbank daily technical analysis report

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