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  • 8/4/2019 2011-09-14 (Raymond James Ltd. (Canada)) SVM_ Weathering the Storm.i8c88a3a204d442389f281c96e9e9d55d

    http:///reader/full/2011-09-14-raymond-james-ltd-canada-svm-weathering-the-stormi8c88a3a204d442389f281c96 1/13

    Canada ResearchPublished by Raymond James Ltd

    Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 8 and Analyst Certification on page 9.Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    Silvercorp Metals Inc. September 14, 2011

    SVM-NYSE | SVM.T-TSX Company CommenBrad Humphrey | 416.777.4917 | [email protected]

    Phil Russo (Associate) | 416.777.7084 | [email protected]

    Tracy Reynolds (Associate) | 416.777.7042 | [email protected]

    Precious Metals | Silver

    Weathering the Storm

    EventSilvercorp was the subject of a second report, this one from a website called

    Alfredlittle.com. This report accused the company of several additional

    fraudulent issues and rehashed some old ones. This follows the earlier

    allegation of accounting fraud from an Anonymous Letter directed at the

    company on Sep-2-11. Please refer to our previous Company Comment

    (Under Attack, price $7.53, dated Sep-6-11) for our view on those allegations.

    ActionWe reiterate our Outperform rating and 12-month target price of $16. The

    continued allegations, of course, add to the uncertainty already surrounding

    companies, such as Silvercorp, with Chinese assets. These reports appear, to

    us, to be opportunistic and in the short-term are driving the share price

    weakness. Given what we know at this time, we suspect SVM will weather this

    storm and suggest that the company continue to move forward with its

    operations and development projects, focusing on its strong margins and cash

    flow, which will ultimately lead to an outperformance. We will continue to

    watch any new developments closely.

    AnalysisWe continue to view these allegations as unfortunate and opportunistic. We

    also maintain our view that the SGX mine is a high quality asset that has been

    and should continue to generate positive returns at current and much lower

    metal prices for many years to come. We also believe when you cut through all

    of the noise it really comes down to the fact that since 2004 the company has

    raised just over $200 mln, paid some $40 mln in dividends, ~$30 mln in share

    buybacks, spent more than $175 mln acquiring, developing, expanding and

    exploring (both in China and Canada) and still have roughly $220 mln in the

    bank. This, along with our site visits and the VAT receipts give us the comfort

    we need to maintain our view.

    ValuationWe apply a 1.8x multiple to our $9.22 NAVPS estimate, largely based on the

    high grade, low cost Ying mine. SVM is currently trading at a P/NAV of 0.7x vs.

    the peer group at 1.1x.

    EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Full Revenue NAV

    Mar Jun Sep Dec Year (mln)

    2011A US$0.09 US$0.07 US$0.13 US$0.08 US$0.37 US$176

    Old 2012E 0.16A 0.15 0.17 0.12 0.59 279 9.22

    New 2012E 0.16A 0.14 0.16 0.12 0.59 276 9.22

    Old 2013E 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.58 293 NA

    New 2013E 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.58 293 NA

    Source: Raymond James Ltd., Thomson One. Fiscal Year End March 31st . Fiscal years ending before May

    are treated as previous year.

    Rating & Target

    Outperform 2

    Target Price (6-12 mos): US$16.00

    Current Price ( Sep-13-11 ) US$6.30Total Return to Target 154%

    52-Week Range US$16.32 - US$6.45

    Market Data

    Market Capitalization (mln) US$1,103

    Current Net Debt (mln) -US$230

    Enterprise Value (mln) US$872

    Shares Outstanding (mln, f.d.) 175.0

    Average Daily Volume (000s) 3,439

    Dividend/Yield US$0.08/1.3%

    Key Financial Metrics

    2011A 2012E 2013E

    P/E

    25.0x 11.0x 10.8x

    P/NAV 0.7x 0.0x

    Ag Price (US$/oz)

    Old US$23.96 US$39.79 US$37.63

    New US$23.96 US$39.79 US$37.63

    Ag Production (mln oz)

    Old 5.0 5.6 6.4

    New 5.0 5.6 6.4

    Ag Cash Cost (US$/oz)

    Old US$(6.59) US$(6.58) US$(5.57)

    New US$(6.59) US$(6.15) US$(5.57)

    CFPS

    Old US$0.55 US$0.91 US$0.88

    New US$0.55 US$0.90 US$0.88

    P/CFPS

    18.7x 7.0x 7.2xEBITDA (mln)

    Old US$97 US$163 US$173

    New US$97 US$161 US$173

    EV/EBITDA

    16.1x 5.4x 5.1x

    Company Description

    Silvercorp is a producer, developer and explore

    focused on silver assets in China (albeit with significan

    by-products). The company's key producing asset is the

    high-grade SGX Silver project.

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    Canada Research | Page 2 of 13 Silvercorp Metals Inc

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    Fresh Accusations

    As we stated in our previous Company Comment published on September 6 entitled

    Under Attack, outsiders can never state with absolute certainty that something is not

    a fraud, this is why such allegations are particularly challenging to refute. This still holds

    true. It is unfortunate that in todays current market environment companies appear to

    be guilty before proven innocent.

    Before we dive into the fresh slate of allegations against Silvercorp we wanted to review

    our thoughts again, and break down what it is that continues to, at the end of the day,

    give us comfort to maintain our Outperform rating and $16.00 12-month target price.

    First, as with every company we cover, we perform a certain amount of due diligence; it

    varies slightly from company to company - reviewing the assets, disclosures,

    management meetings, third party studies, etc. Often we visit the assets several times,

    we focus on permitting and various other asset or region specific issues or risks. Once all

    of this is complete, we decide whether or not to officially cover the companys shares. In

    the case of Silvercorp, we went through our typical procedure, gaining comfort that yes,

    the assets exist, have good potential and that we trust management.

    In mining there are a number of aspects where we need to rely on, our experience, third

    party reports and management, which is why trusting management is truly a key featurein our analysis. We need to trust not only that they are truthful but also that they can

    actually accomplish successfully, what we believe is the potential of the various assets

    to be.

    What are the key issues when reviewing a mining company (after establishing a level of

    good faith with management to be truthful and are competent)?

    1. Quality of an asset, i.e. grades, widths, size, mine life, etc. 2. Economics of an asset, i.e., can the asset generate positive cash flow sustainably?Quality of the Asset

    Once we have established this trust, we then focus, in more detail, on the specifics of

    the asset, whether in the exploration, development or production phase and then

    decide whether it is under, over or fairly valued in the market. When we first started to

    review Silvercorp it was in the exploration/development stage, quickly moving to the

    production stage. Once in production, and through the typical ramp up issues that all

    mining companies grind through, we are better able to re-assess whether or not the

    asset is actually economic and have a much better idea if our original assessment, as to

    the ultimate potential of the asset, still holds.

    We focused on SGX, as it was and still is Silvercorps key asset. The issue for us with the

    SGX mine was not whether it was high grade or if it was likely going to be in operation

    for several decades - we have been to the mine several times and believe both to be

    true - our concern was whether or not, given its narrow widths, it could be mined

    economically. Now of course our original work was done in a much lower metal price

    environment and given todays prices we would likely have focused a little less on this,however given these recent events, we are glad we did.

    Initially Silvercorp did have some challenges with the mining methods, and dilution rates

    were quite high. After a lot of test work and training the company was able to develop a

    method that maximized the grade mined by minimizing the dilution. We visited the

    mine both before this was put in place and afterward. So given we believe the asset to

    be high grade and believe it has a long future ahead of it, albeit will always be a

    relatively small mine, we were now able to gain comfort that it could in fact be mined

    economically.

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    Silvercorp Metals Inc. Canada Research | Page 3 of 13

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    We are not necessarily overly concerned about the allegations regarding the currently

    reported size of the asset or its grades (we will touch on this later); as we know,

    consultants and geologists can take the same information and depending on cutoffs,

    mining widths (dilution) and several other inputs can come up with a variety of results.

    In fact, the reported grade in the NI 43-101 report is often not the grade actually mined.

    When a company lays out its mining blocks it takes into account current metal prices

    and costs and adjusts its plans accordingly. If the prices are high, it can mine lower grade

    zones, if the prices are low it can focus on higher grade areas. It can even focus on

    specific metals that might be trading at higher levels, if for example lead prices are

    elevated a company may choose to mine a zone that has a high lead grade but a lower

    silver grade.

    On the size of an asset, investors in companies with high grade narrow vein style

    deposits need to be comfortable with the fact that it is far too expensive and in some

    cases difficult to prove up an entire deposit. History is full of examples of mines that

    have been in operation for multiple decades with no more than 5 years of proven

    reserves at any one point in time.

    Economics

    Some would assume the quality of an asset goes hand in hand with its economics.

    Sometimes this is true, but not always. A high grade asset can be uneconomic for any

    number of reasons. So this is always a key determinant when reviewing a companys

    assets. There are a number of ways to look at it, the old back of the envelope method

    where you take the current metal prices, the reported grades and calculate what a

    tonne of rock is worth and compare that to what you believe the cost per tonne will be.

    Or you can build full DCF valuations (as we do). Or, and likely the most accurate way, is

    to analyze whether or not the company is generating positive cash flow. Yes, so here

    again we are required to review our view of management. And again, we believe the

    company provided bank statements and financials to be accurate. Silvercorp did make

    this analysis slightly easier by providing a lot of back up documentation, which for us,

    the VAT receipts from concentrate sales and its current bank statements were the key.

    Accountants can argue the validity of different accounting treatments all day long, but

    as long as sales of concentrate are being made and cash balances are growing, assets

    are generating cash. We review in more detail cash inflows and outflows in Appendix A.

    Our Take in Short

    We continue to view these allegations as unfortunate and opportunistic. We also

    maintain our view that the Ying property and more specifically the SGX mine is a high

    quality asset that should generate positive returns at current and much lower metal

    prices for many years to come. We also believe when you cut through all of the noise,

    related to the quality of the asset or whether it is economic, it really comes down to the

    fact that since 2004 the company has raised just over $200 mln, paid some $40 mln in

    dividends, ~$30 mln in share buybacks, spent more than $175 mln acquiring,

    developing, expanding and exploring (both in China and Canada) and still have roughly

    $220 mln in the bank (according to current bank statements note if you dont believe

    the Chinese bank statements they hold roughly $90 mln outside of China). This, alongwith our site visits and the VAT receipts give us the comfort we need to maintain our

    view.

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    Canada Research | Page 4 of 13 Silvercorp Metals Inc

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    New Allegations

    As mentioned, there were new allegations provided in a report from Alfredlittle.com

    which we summarized below along with our thoughts. Admittedly we are still working

    through some of details but here is what we have at this time.

    Henan Provincial Land & Resource Bureau mining reports contradict theproduction, quality and resource estimates of SVMs key SGX (Ying) mine as

    shown in its 40-F and independent NI 43-101 reports that rely heavily upon dataprovided by management. No independent geologists have visited SVMs SGX

    mine since 2008.

    There are several allegations made within this statement; we focus on a few below.

    The author quotes the Henan Provincial Land & Resource Bureau (L&R) throughout

    the report. We have not yet been able to confirm or deny the accuracy of this data

    and more importantly what the methodology is behind the data. But going under

    the assumption that the L&R statements could be correct, there could be any

    number of reasons for the differences between the tonnes reported in Silvercorps

    NI43-101 and the L&Rs statements. We do not know if the L&R statements include

    material from the same area or a subset of it and we do not know what the

    different standards or requirements are, (and we will continue to look into it), but

    at this time on its face value, this is not something that we are concerned about.

    On the different grade calculations; again we do not have the official statements,

    however we do know that in China there tends to be a standard cutoff that is

    applied to various metals and deposit types. Although we are still attempting to

    confirm this, it is our understanding (through various conversations) that the SGX

    deposit type and style is required to use roughly a 50g/t cutoff in the L&R filings,

    versus Silvercorps current NI43-101 which is based on a 300+g/t cutoff. This in

    itself could potentially account for the difference in grade calculations. But there

    are a number of other determinants and required standards that could also lead to

    differences in grade.

    Regardless of what grade is reported in the statements, the grade that counts is the

    one that is in the mine plan and ultimately mined. We know each quarter what

    grade was actually mined to generate revenue and Silvercorp further supported this

    by providing 2010s VAT receipts and by showing their increasing cash balances.

    The author also claimed to have counted trucks for two weeks and by their

    calculation Silvercorp should have had 63 trucks per day. However by their count

    there were only 44 trucks per day. First, in our view, this is not an accurate way to

    figure out tonnage and throughput. Yes, they are 30tonne trucks, but we would

    suggest it is highly likely that the trucks are regularly overloaded and note that 30

    tonnes of lead ore likely would not fill a typical 30 tonne truck box. The trucks

    pictured in the report are full, suggesting that there was something more than 30

    tonnes in each truck. Regardless, over a two week period it is not possible to pro-

    rate to a full quarter or full year, there are any number of reasons why one day

    tonnage would be higher or lower than the next, and these loads do not count the

    material that is direct shipped to the refiners or that is potentially stockpiled at the

    mill.

    As for the independent consultant that authored the NI43-101, we believe none of

    the issues stated are really that uncommon for a typical producing asset. If the

    company reported a wild increase in ounces year over year we may flag it, but we

    are not concerned at this point. We are curious however, who the independent

    consultants quoted in the report are, and would like to have been able to discuss

    some of these issues with them but their identity is also unknown at this time.

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    Silvercorp Metals Inc. Canada Research | Page 5 of 13

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    The author also states The SGX mine has calculated reserves that are only 68M Oz

    of equivalent silver. This is worrisome for a 100M market cap company let alone a

    $1,000M market cap company. They should have more resources. SGX does have

    more resources. Possibly just an oversight, but the author neglected to mention

    that SGX also has an additional 182Moz (silver equivalent) in global resources as per

    their May 2011 NI 43-101 technical report.

    The last point in of this allegation that we are going to discuss at this time relates to

    their inference that narrow vein mines tend to require a higher amount ofsustaining capital. This can be correct, especially for underground operations versus

    open pit. That said, the author went on and listed what it believes the sustaining

    capital figures of a number of Silvercorps peers are and stated that Silvercorps

    sustaining capital is the highest at US$436 mln. We are unable to recreate any of

    the numbers in the authors chart and although the author claims the number for

    Silvercorp is from its NI43-101, we were not able to calculate anything close to it.

    From our review we get roughly $44 mln in sustaining capital estimated over the

    LOM for SGX.

    Outside Tests of Ore Obtained from the SGX Mine Reveal Low Silver Content.We will not dwell on this point much, but in our view gathering ore that has fallen

    off the back of a haul truck and having it assayed cannot be used to infer anything

    other than what the assays are of the rocks collected off the road. The author states

    that their own independent testing from a local laboratory determined the silver

    content to be only 30 g/t (from 2 samples we assume 2 rocks?). The author does

    not know where the material is from, and the high grade material is hand cobbed

    onsite and shipped directly to the smelter (by-passing the mill altogether).

    98% of Henan Founds Sales Growth in 2010 came from Two QuestionableCustomers. Management Failed to Disclose SVMs Largest Customer is a Related

    Party.

    We are not entirely clear about what the issue is here, Silvercorp does own a 15%

    non-controlling interest in the Luoyang Yongning Smelter, this ownership was

    previously disclosed and when Silvercorp first announced its participation in this

    smelter project it stated as a reason for its participation was to try and improve theprices it was getting for its concentrate (as a side note we visited this smelter in

    2009). This is by no means uncommon, particularly in base metals; in fact a recent

    trend in the zinc sector is for smelters to acquire mines and mining companies.

    In the end, all that concerns us is that Silvercorps assets produce a product and

    then sell that product generating positive cash flow. This is shown by the VAT

    receipts and its expanding cash balance.

    Recent Auction Sale of 5% of Henan Found Values it at a 90% Discount to SVMsMarket Value.

    We refuted this claim in detail in our previous Company Comment. We would only

    add that it is incorrect to say that if it was worth more than the roughly $7 mln it

    was transferred at (5% of book value) someone else would have bid for it, becauseSilvercorp holds a right of first refusal on any sale other than to an affiliate and

    would have, we suspect, jumped at the chance to acquire the additional interest if it

    was truly for sale.

    SVM Acquired Yangtze Gold from Chairman Rui Fengs Relative Giving Him a1500% Gain in Six Months.

    In April 2008, Silvercorp did complete a transaction to acquire Yangtze Gold Ltd., a

    private company for cash (40%) and equity (60%) totaling $61.95 mln. The equity

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    Canada Research | Page 6 of 13 Silvercorp Metals Inc

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    portion of the transaction was issued at a closing price of $8.20 per share for a total

    of 4.5 mln shares.

    Prior to the transaction, an independent NI 43-101 technical report completed by

    SRK Consulting China Ltd. dated January 2008, reported a measured and indicated

    resource for the GC Permit (owned by Yangtze Gold Ltd.), of 1,829,700 tonnes

    grading 129g/t silver, 1.45% lead, 2.79% zinc and 0.14% zinc and inferred resources

    of 7,381,300 tonnes grading 125g/t silver, 1.38% lead, 3.00% zinc and 0.13% tin.

    While the transaction was indeed with a relative of Mr. Fengs (his father), this was

    disclosed and the transaction was approved by the independent directors of

    Silvercorp in accordance with applicable regulations. A fairness opinion was also

    given at the time as being in line with previous transaction of that type and nature.

    Our analysis of the value of the transaction also suggests that the value was

    reasonable for that period.

    Since this time, the silver price has increased some 100% and Silvercorp has proven

    up an additional ~20Moz of measured and indicated resources. This asset will soon

    be Silvercorps next leg up in production and it cost just $62 mln to acquire and is

    expected to cost around $30-40mln in initial capital to construct. We do not believe

    that Silvercorp shareholders should feel this was a poor acquisition (we have also

    visited the GC project).

    Investigation by the BCSC

    We note that the British Columbia Securities Commission (BCSC) announced their

    intention to investigate the allegations made previously against Silvercorp and that it is

    seeking out the identity of the Anonymous writer. It is common practice for these types

    of investigations to be kept confidential but given the allegations have been made

    anonymously, BCSC have made public their decision in the hope the author comes

    forward. We view any investigation from the BCSC as positive given the circumstances,

    and hope that it positions the company to have them eventually exonerated of any

    wrongdoing and remove the overhang on the companys share price caused by the

    events of the recent weeks.

    Valuation

    We continue to suspect that this will be a short-term event and are maintaining our

    current Outperform rating and 12-month target price of $16. We will continue to watch

    any new developments closely.

    We apply a 1.8x multiple to our $9.22 NAVPS estimate, largely based on the high grade,

    low cost Ying mine. Silvercorp is currently trading at a P/NAV of 0.7x vs. the primary

    silver producer group at 1.1x.

    Exhibit 2: Silvercorp NAV Estimate Summary

    Mining Assets

    SGX Mine 753.1 4.23

    Other Assets 699.2 3.93

    Investments 36.4 0.20

    Total Mining Assets 1488.7 8.37

    Other Assets 150.6 0.85

    Total NAV 1639.4 9.22

    Source: Company Reports, Raymond James Ltd.

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    Silvercorp Metals Inc. Canada Research | Page 7 of 13

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    Appendix A

    Silvercorp's Historical Cash Flow Statement from 2006 to 2011 (in US$mln)

    Cash Flow Statement F2006A F2007A F2008A F2009A F2010E F2011E

    CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES:

    Net Gain (loss) (6.3) 25.1 59.9 (16.0) 38.5 68.8

    Add (deduct) noncas h items:

    Accretion of asset retirement obligations - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2

    Equity income (loss) 0.2 0.3 0.3 1.5 0.4 (1.9)

    Future income tax - - 0.1 (7.9) 0.8 1.6

    Gain on disposal of subsidiary - 0.0 - - - (1.9)

    Non-cash other income (0.3) (4.4) (4.4) - - -

    Loss on disposal of mineral properties 1.7 0.0 (0.6) 0.8 - -

    Stock-based compensation 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.1 1.9 2.3

    Non-controll ing interest (0.1) 7.2 19.2 1.5 13.3 20.6

    Depreciation 0.1 1.5 3.7 7.2 4.8 7.1

    Other - 0.0 0.0 55.4 1.1 (4.5)

    CF - before WC changes (2.5) 32.0 80.9 44.7 61.1 92.4

    CASH USED IN OPERATING ACTIVITIES (1.6) 34.2 79.8 47.0 66.0 104.2

    CASH FLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES:

    Mineral rights and properties

    Acquisition and capital expenditures (7.2) (13.4) (36.6) (37.1) (21.2) (25.6)

    Proceeds on disposal 5.5 - 0.6 0.8 - 0.5Plant a nd equipment

    Acquisition (0.8) (7.2) (7.5) (12.7) (5.0) (9.5)

    Proceeds on disposal - 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0

    Equity Investments

    Marketable securities - - - - (1.4) -

    Luoyang Yongning Gold and Lead Smelting Co. Ltd - - (5.6) (0.3) 0.0 -

    Sale of (purchase of) investments (4.5) 0.5 (29.5) 13.0 (14.3) (31.4)

    Prepayments to acquire plant and equipment - - (3.4) (0.4) (0.5) (14.3)

    Reclamation deposit paid - - - 0.0 (0.1) -

    Cash transferred in on acquisi tion of Ying Project 1.9 - - - - -

    Payment to Joint Venture partner for acquisition of Henan Found (1.8) - - - - -

    Other (0.4) (1.3) - - - (23.4)

    CASH USED IN INVESTING ACTIVITIES (7.3) (21.3) (81.8) (36.7) (42.3) (103.5)

    CASH FLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES:

    Advance to related parties, net of repayments received (0.24) 1.8 (1.4) (0.0) (0.1) 0.2

    Bank loan and notes payableProceeds - - - 0.7 2.9 -

    Repayments - - - - (2.1) (1.5)

    Non-controlling interest

    Contribution - - - 0.2 - -

    Distribution - - (3.4) (13.2) (7.2) (10.6)

    Cash dividends distributed - - (6.9) (5.5) (12.0) (13.1)

    Capital stock

    Proceeds from issuance of common share 10.69 47.8 2.3 22.7 1.3 115.8

    Share cancellation - (5.5) - (9.5) - -

    CASH USED IN FINANCING ACTIVITIES 10.4 44.1 (9.4) (4.6) (17.2) 90.8

    Effects of exchange rate on cash (0.1) 0.6 5.1 (11.3) 2.7 5.1

    EOY cash and equivalents + short term investments 12.6 66.9 82.9 64.1 93.3 204.9

    In 2010, purchasedtheSilvertip property in BC forUS$7.5mln cash and$7.5ml n of SVM shares fortotal consideration of$15mln.

    In F2008, purchasedthe LM & TLP

    properties for

    US$25.5mln.

    In 2011 , purchased the BYP

    prope rty for US$33mln.

    In 2006, spent$6mln on

    initial 1,000tpd mill to

    process ore from the Yingmine.

    In 2008, spent $12mln to

    expand mill capacity to

    1,500t pd at the Ying mine.

    For F2012,SVM plans to

    spend $18.5mln at the Ying

    mine on mine

    development, whichincl udes shafts, declines,

    exploration drilling, ramps

    and tailings facility.

    In F2008 , acquired interest

    in HPG project for

    US$6.3mln.

    In F2008, paid $0.05 per

    share dividend.

    In F2010, paid $0.08 per

    share dividend.

    In F2011, paid $0.08 pershare dividend.

    In F2009, paid $0.08 pershare dividend.

    In 2009, purchasedthe GCprope rty for US$61.95mln,split 4 0% cash, 60% equityof SVM shares @ $8.20 p ershare.

    Source: Company Reports, Raymond James Ltd.

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    Canada Research | Page 8 of 13 Silvercorp Metals Inc

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    Ratings and Definitions

    Raymond James Ltd. (Canada) definitions

    Strong Buy (SB1) The stock is expected to appreciate and produce a total return of at least 15% and outperform the

    S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next six months. Outperform (MO2) The stock is expected to appreciate and

    outperform the S&P/TSX Composite Index over the next twelve months. Market Perform (MP3) The stock is expected to

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    Raymond James & Associates (U.S.) definitions

    Strong Buy (SB1) Expected to appreciate, produce a total return of at least 15%, and outperform the S&P 500 over the next

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    to 12 months. Outperform (2) Expected to appreciate and outperform the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Market

    Perform (3) Expected to perform generally in line with the Stoxx 600 over the next 12 months. Underperform (4) Expected

    to underperform the Stoxx 600 or its sector over the next 6 to 12 months.

    Suitability Categories (SR)

    For stocks rated by Raymond James & Associates only, the following Suitability Categories provide an assessment of

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    month price targets are assigned only to stocks rated Strong Buy or Outperform.

    Total Return (TR) Lower risk equities possessing dividend yields above that of the S&P 500 and greater stability of principal.

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    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    Aggressive Growth (AG) Medium or higher risk equities of companies in fast growing and competitive industries, with less

    predictable earnings and acceptable, but possibly more leveraged balance sheets.

    High Risk (HR) Companies with less predictable earnings (or losses), rapidly changing market dynamics, financial and

    competitive issues, higher price volatility (beta), and risk of principal.

    Venture Risk (VR) Companies with a short or unprofitable operating history, limited or less predictable revenues, very high

    risk associated with success, and a substantial risk of principal.

    Rating Distributions

    Coverage Universe Rating Distribution Investment Banking Distribution

    RJL RJA RJ LatAm RJL RJA RJ LatAm

    Strong Buy and Outperform (Buy) 78% 58% 35% 58% 16% 47%

    Market Perform (Hold) 21% 38% 56% 38% 5% 0%

    Underperform (Sell) 1% 5% 9% 0% 2% 0%

    Raymond James Relationship Disclosures

    Raymond James Ltd. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking servicesfrom all companies under research coverage within the next three months.

    Company Name Disclosure

    Silvercorp Metals Inc. Within the last 12 months, Silvercorp Metals Inc. has paid for all or a material portion of the

    travel costs associated with a site visit by the Analyst and/or Associate.

    Raymond James Ltd. has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities within the

    last 12 months with respect to Silvercorp Metals Inc.

    Raymond James Ltd. has provided investment banking services within the last 12 months

    with respect to Silvercorp Metals Inc.

    Raymond James Ltd. has received compensation for investment banking services within the

    last 12 months with respect to Silvercorp Metals Inc.

    Stock Charts, Target Prices, and Valuation Methodologies

    Valuation Methodology: The Raymond James methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes a number of

    qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall

    attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition, and expected total return, among

    other factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry- or company-

    specific occurrences.

    Target Prices: The information below indicates our target price and rating changes for SVM stock over the past three years.

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    Silvercorp Metals Inc. Canada Research | Page 11 of 13

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    Price RatingChange Target PriceChange

    CoverageSuspended Target PriceandRatingChange Split Adjustment

    $0.00

    $2.00

    $4.00

    $6.00

    $8.00

    $10.00

    $12.00

    $14.00

    $16.00

    Sep-15-08

    Oct-13-08

    Nov-10-08

    Dec-08-08

    Jan-05-09

    Feb-02-09

    Mar-02-09

    Mar-30-09

    Apr-27-09

    May-25-09

    Jun-22-09

    Jul-20-09

    Aug-17-09

    Sep-14-09

    Oct-12-09

    Nov-09-09

    Dec-07-09

    Jan-04-10

    Feb-01-10

    Mar-01-10

    Mar-29-10

    Apr-26-10

    May-24-10

    Jun-21-10

    Jul-19-10

    Aug-16-10

    Sep-13-10

    Oct-11-10

    Nov-08-10

    Dec-04-10

    Dec-31-10

    Jan-25-11

    Feb-17-11

    Mar-17-11

    Apr-14-11

    May-12-11

    Jun-07-11

    Jul-02-11

    Jul-27-11

    Aug-23-11

    SecurityPrice(US$)

    SilvercorpMetals Inc. (SVM) 3 yr. Stock PerformanceSilvercorpMetals Inc. (SVM) 3 yr. Stock Performance

    Date: September 122011

    MO2$7.2 MO2$6.50

    MO2$6.00

    MO2$5.00

    MO2$6.75

    MO2$9.50

    MO2$9.75 MO2$10.15 MO2$13.00

    RR

    MO2$13.00

    MO2$16.50

    MO2$16.80 MO2$16.00

    Analyst Recommendations & 12 Month Price ObjectivSB1: Strong Buy MO2: OutperformMP3: Market Perform MU4: UnderperformNR : Not Rated R: Restricted

    Text

    Update

    Date

    Closing

    Price

    Target

    Price

    Rating

    Aug-03-11 10.23 16.00 2

    Apr-26-11 13.89 16.80 2

    Jan-26-11 9.96 16.50 2

    Jan-04-11 12.37 15.65 2

    Jan-04-11 13.04 13.00 2

    Dec-11-10 12.93 R RNov-11-10 12.23 13.00 2

    Aug-13-10 7.14 10.15 2

    May-14-10 8.49 9.75 2

    Dec-01-09 8.07 9.50 2

    Oct-28-09 4.90 6.75 2

    Mar-16-09 2.73 5.00 2

    Ja n-21-09 2.50 6.00 2

    Ja n-02-09 2.60 6.50 2

    Oct-23-08 2.05 7.20 2

    Valuation Methodology: Our valuation methodology for the company considers the stock's valuation as it compares to

    our estimate of Net Asset Value (NAV).

    Risk Factors

    General Risk Factors: Following are some general risk factors that pertain to the projected target prices included on

    Raymond James research: (1) Industry fundamentals with respect to customer demand or product / service pricing could

    change and adversely impact expected revenues and earnings; (2) Issues relating to major competitors or market shares or

    new product expectations could change investor attitudes toward the sector or this stock; (3) Unforeseen developments

    with respect to the management, financial condition or accounting policies or practices could alter the prospective

    valuation.

    Risks - Precious Metals

    Acquisition Risks Mining is very competitive when it comes to acquiring additional properties or projects. This could

    negatively impact companies that overpay for assets or purchase assets that fail to meet expectations.

    Asset Ownership The validity of most mining and exploration titles can be contested, resulting in disruptions, increasedexpenses, and potentially the loss of the asset.

    Commodity Prices All mining companies are impacted to varying degrees by changes in commodity prices. Rising or falling

    commodity prices have a direct impact on earnings, cash flow, and NAV estimates. Commodity prices also impact operating,

    capital spending, and exploration decisions, which may have longer term effects.

    Currency Risk Any mines or projects operating in countries that are not US dollar denominated will have some exposure

    to currency risk. Any dramatic strengthening or weakening will impact capital and operating costs at these mines and/or

    projects.

    Development Risk During the development phase, certain events can lead to unforeseen delays or costs overruns, which

    could dramatically change the economics of a project.

    Energy Prices Energy typically accounts for a material amount of the cost involved in producing precious metals. Some

    processes are more energy-intensive than others, but a trend in rising energy prices would have a negative impact on

    margins, all else being equal.Environmental Risks Environmental regulation is continuously becoming stricter and requiring greater capital

    expenditures or guarantees. Companies could be negatively impacted if regulations in the areas in which they are active

    become more stringent or expensive.

    Infrastructure Risk Although improving, there is a lack of qualified professionals and a shortage of services in the mining

    industry as a whole. In todays robust environment, securing services such as drill rigs, consultants and assaying facilities

    can prove difficult, leading to delays and an increase in capital requirements.

    Operational Risk Operating issues are inherent with all mining activities. Changes in ground conditions, as an example, can

    lead to production shortfalls, cost increases, and/or resource reductions (temporary or permanent). The impact on our

    estimates would depend on the nature, as well as the severity, of the operating issue.

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    Canada Research | Page 12 of 13 Silvercorp Metals Inc

    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

    Permitting Risk Permits are essential to all development projects and mining operations; delays in obtaining or refusal of

    critical permits can significantly impact the valuation of a project.

    Political/Country Risk Each country poses unique risks. Governments can change mining and/or environmental laws and

    can implement tax or royalty changes, which could potentially have a negative impact on company earnings, cash flow, and

    NAV estimates. There is also the risk of asset expropriation or nationalization without compensation and political regimes

    can change, along with the attitude towards mining activities.

    Risks - Silvercorp Metal

    Mining is an inherently risky business. Key industry wide risks include the political environment, operating issues and metalprices. More company-specific risks relating to Silvercorp include: 1) Silvercorp derives 100% of its asset value from

    properties in China - higher political risk. 2) We make a number of assumptions relating to two of Silvercorps assets, which

    adds to our valuation risk. 3) Silvercorp also derives a significant amount of its revenue from by-product lead and zinc

    production. If lead or zinc prices were to drop significantly below our price assumptions our estimates would be negatively

    impacted.

    Additional Risk and Disclosure information, as well as more information on the Raymond James rating system and suitability

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    Raymond James Ltd. | 2200 925 West Georgia Street | Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2

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