2010 都市均衡發展與房價變動趨勢論壇 - 臺中都市均衡發展與房價變動趨勢

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2010 都市均衡發展與房價變動趨勢論壇 - 臺中都市均衡發展與房價變動趨勢. 主辦單位: 中華民國不動產協進會 報 告 人:莊 孟 翰 日 期 : 2010 年 2 月 2 日. 台灣經濟成長率預測. 全球經濟開始復甦,惟仍有不確定性 資料來源:經建會. 領先指標持續上升. 全球股市震盪上揚. 流向各新興市場之資金數量. 股匯市持續雙漲. M1B 年增率屢創新高. 1990-2008 年全球 FDI 流入及 2009-2012 年期間的三種型態. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • 2010 2010 2 2

  • M1B

    Chart1

    11.243.64

    16.474.38

    17.384.41

    20.394.69

    21.54.1

    18.733.54

    17.72.8

    19.612.77

    15.992.23

    16.582.55

    15.023.13

    9.272.58

    11.853.87

    6.262.38

    5.211.87

    6.22.31

    8.873.16

    9.472.52

    13.14.1

    14.314.62

    17.785.27

    18.715.67

    18.345.42

    19.325.82

    17.996.07

    22.277.26

    24.898.41

    24.198.75

    20.737.93

    19.268.08

    19.457.78

    17.567.07

    16.646.97

    14.816.97

    13.456.96

    12.447.35

    8.695.98

    9.096.12

    6.975.62

    5.645.52

    6.335.7

    8.16.71

    7.796.5

    6.226.17

    5.486.44

    4.585.88

    6.236.39

    6.836.55

    8.377.46

    5.466.44

    4.076.1

    6.786.87

    7.277.1

    3.235.65

    1.585.13

    3.995.74

    5.975.91

    6.626.02

    5.285.89

    4.475.27

    3.154.37

    8.325.95

    8.435.78

    7.415.1

    64.65

    8.154.57

    10.194.59

    7.034.07

    5.673.33

    5.93.4

    2.42.15

    -0.030.93

    1.112.15

    -2.421.43

    -0.92.16

    -1.32.29

    -0.542.5

    -4.11.46

    -5.912

    -4.432.22

    -4.043.12

    -4.744.55

    -2.815.51

    -0.817

    2.116.19

    3.466.26

    7.276.64

    10.086.72

    14.277.53

    17.948.2

    21.388.35

    22.47.98

    22.327.63

    27.86.83

    30.516.33

    28.925.74

    M1B

    M2

    -

    20094M1BM2

    51,23611.24198,2383.6479,6568.37248,7417.46

    52,19316.47199,9064.3878,0145.46247,9686.44

    52,44717.38200,1464.4176,7254.07247,7026.10

    52,19820.39199,1404.6977,6616.78249,8736.87

    51,52821.50197,9934.1077,2567.27249,5507.10

    52,93818.73200,3983.5477,1213.23250,3475.65

    51,59717.70198,7112.8076,3211.58249,6185.13

    52,40619.61199,3652.7777,7943.99250,6995.74

    51,63015.99198,4672.2379,2785.97251,9455.91

    51,82316.58198,6382.5578,7566.62252,0346.02

    52,59115.02200,1233.1378,9675.28254,2065.89

    54,9169.27202,4702.5882,2264.47257,9885.27

    57,31011.85205,9033.8782,1693.15259,6054.37

    55,4616.26204,6722.3884,5078.32262,7325.95

    55,1825.21203,8941.8783,1938.43262,0315.78

    55,4326.20203,7362.3183,4177.41262,6055.10

    56,1008.87204,2533.1681,8886.00261,1504.65

    57,9499.47205,4492.5283,4038.15261,7924.57

    58,35713.10206,8574.1084,10010.19261,0634.59

    59,90614.31208,5794.6283,2677.03260,8964.07

    60,80817.78208,9325.2783,7715.67260,3333.33

    61,51818.71209,8955.6783,4045.90260,6063.40

    62,23618.34210,9715.4280,8632.40259,6802.15

    65,52819.32214,2555.8282,200-0.03260,3940.93

    67,62217.99218,4066.0783,0811.11265,1742.15

    67,81422.27219,5227.2682,464-2.42266,4951.43

    68,91624.89221,0368.4182,441-0.90267,6872.16

    68,84324.19221,5698.7582,333-1.30268,6252.29

    67,73220.73220,4477.9381,446-0.54267,6672.50

    69,11119.26222,0498.0879,980-4.10265,6051.46

    69,70819.45222,9427.7879,126-5.91266,2892.00

    70,42717.56223,3187.0779,576-4.43266,6902.22

    70,92816.64223,4936.9780,391-4.04268,4473.12

    70,63014.81224,5156.9779,450-4.74272,4534.55

    70,60813.45225,6526.9678,588-2.81273,9995.51

    73,68012.44230,0127.3581,537-0.81278,6327.00

    73,5018.69231,4635.9884,8342.11281,5906.19

    73,9779.09232,9676.1285,3173.46283,1816.26

    73,7216.97233,4515.6288,4377.27285,4606.64

    72,7265.64233,8055.5290,62910.08286,6716.72

    72,0216.33233,0085.7093,06814.27287,8287.53

    74,7078.10236,9506.7194,33217.94287,3978.2

    75,1377.79237,4326.5096,04321.38288,5318.35

    74,8086.22237,0866.1797,39822.4287,9647.98

    74,8125.48237,8886.4498,33222.32288,9367.63

    73,8624.58237,7255.88101,53627.80291,0746.83

    75,0056.23240,0746.39102,56330.51291,3406.33

    78,7116.83245,0806.55105,11428.92294,6125.74

    20094M1BM2

    M1B

    M2

    -

  • 1990-2008FDI2009-2012

  • 2002-2009

  • 2002-2009100

  • 2

  • -2

  • 225

  • -

  • -

  • -

  • -

  • /

  • /

  • 2009

    Chart1

    144439.99

    143703.97

    141196.12

    135772.81

    133737.67

    140356.74

    144227.87

    145010.53

    145707.31

    148238.88

    149150.68

    151205.21

    155385.24

    156272.9

    159821.53

    159604.96

    154965.99

    156103.72

    157588.6

    157576.71

    159529.42

    156448.69

    156761.89

    155347.92

    157130.71

    153447.41

    159164.97

    165444.14

    169398.25

    172925.42

    174769.85

    179757.89

    177529.75

    172735.2

    168063.56

    170140.12

    157598.52

    160795.79

    157705.47

    163857.04

    162782.03

    157177.6

    156991.63

    158481.45

    157689.07

    160996.7

    164495.84

    159787.55

    162907.28

    163924.87

    163583.9

    168670.52

    168629.61

    170866.92

    172863.21

    171933.13

    174240.69

    177051.47

    177599.29

    179646.2

    183765.9

    188344.47

    188531.02

    186171.63

    188999.59

    193769.75

    193965.56

    192113.1

    193650.86

    193299.16

    192326.48

    194372.09

    193130.89

    188739.76

    187223.2

    190932.32

    194474.46

    198125.17

    198745.49

    196235.3

    196451.03

    199327.23

    198514.31

    198833.98

    201938.09

    204226.39

    205577.2

    212312.88

    218214.93

    219869.04

    227627.58

    234421.33

    236873.99

    226406.06

    224179.99

    222285.93

    201467.25

    216366.48

    223732.71

    224680.65

    225138.38

    227003.79

    236111.84

    239910.33

    236132.43

    239238.6

    239825.49

    231718.26

    224420.02

    219727.95

    209422.04

    215943.65

    219505.48

    205564.26

    201046.69

    212134.02

    208047.67

    203526.51

    196971.91

    195085.13

    200149.54

    205840.43

    213833.75

    216832.16

    207486.52

    216546.9

    219460.88

    217945

    225984.94

    231188.64

    226936.41

    227557.07

    223309.87

    233604.81

    224407.53

    218919.79

    222265.786371573

    205992.9

    200860.42

    192030.98

    183855.33

    184329.49

    173548.83

    184187.79

    178385.08

    183695.58

    183326.08

    176236.04

    179664.82

    160930.46

    161000.08

    152398.44

    151223.83

    146409.31

    130865.69

    126527.88

    116858.98

    124031.87

    120757.31

    113381.14

    106197.1

    113561.28

    107682.98

    114192.67

    119607.68

    112848.17

    117065.27

    113947.22

    111405.22

    108398.13

    114090.37

    117227.46

    116362.84

    118466.51

    124429.35

    126000.08

    136345.66

    139596.03

    145811.36

    145036.66

    148000.98

    150974.18

    165743.3

    163426.7

    169628.04

    173488.26

    172735.45

    162445.59

    156930.76

    162965.27

    168033.63

    170604.18

    172749.06

    175942.04

    178655.9

    179138.24

    173748.33

    168714.27

    172830.97

    181517.05

    186212.83

    191467.14

    186852.84

    188588.99

    192757.22

    196533.53

    194863.08

    187279.62

    190622.36

    195802.04

    196637.54

    191705.91

    195799.47

    199549.13

    198792.22

    204703.11

    210331.82

    212687.64

    214715.07

    204124.97

    197043.68

    Market Capitalization At Weekend(Preliminary Statistics)

    2009

    2008/01/04208,047.6739871.0116,362.84

    2008/01/11203,526.5139878.0118,466.51

    2008/01/25196,971.9139885.0124,429.35

    2008/02/01195,085.1339892.0126,000.08

    2008/02/15200,149.5439899.0136345.66

    2008/02/22205,840.4339906.0139,596.03

    2008/02/29213,833.7539913.0145,811.36

    2008/03/07216,832.1639920.0145,036.66

    2008/03/14207,486.5239927.0148,000.98

    2008/03/21216,546.9039933.0150,974.18

    2008/03/28219,460.8839941.0165,743.30

    2008/04/03217,945.0039948.0163,426.70

    2008/04/11225,984.9439955.0169,628.04

    2008/04/18231,188.6439960.0173,488.26

    2008/04/25226,936.4139970.0172,735.45

    2008/05/02227,557.0739976.0162,445.59

    2008/05/09223,309.8739983.0156,930.76

    2008/05/16233,604.8139990.0162,965.27

    2008/05/23224,407.5339997.0168,033.63

    2008/05/30218,919.7940004.0170,604.18

    2008/06/06222,265.7940011.0172,749.06

    2008/06/13205,992.9040018.0175,942.04

    2008/06/13205,992.9040025.0178,655.90

    2008/06/20200,860.428/6/09179,138.24

    2008/06/27192,030.988/14/09173,748.33

    2008/07/04183,855.338/21/09168,714.27

    2008/07/11184,329.498/28/09172,830.97

    2008/07/18173,548.839/4/09181,517.05

    2008/07/25184,187.799/11/09186,212.83

    2008/08/01178,385.089/18/09191,467.14

    2008/08/08183,695.589/25/09186,852.84

    2008/08/15183,326.0810/2/09188,588.99

    2008/08/22176,236.0410/9/09192,757.22

    2008/08/29179,664.8210/16/09196,533.53

    2008/09/05160,930.4610/23/09194,863.08

    2008/09/12161,000.0810/30/09187,279.62

    2008/09/19152,398.4411/6/09190,622.36

    2008/09/26151,223.8311/13/09195,802.04

    2008/10/03146,409.3111/20/09196,637.54

    2008/10/09130,865.692009/11/27191705.91

    2008/10/17126,527.882009/12/04195799.47

    2008/10/24116,858.982009/12/11199549.13

    39752.0124031.872009/12/18198792.22

    39759.0120757.312009/12/25204703.11

    39766.0113381.142009/12/31210331.82

    39773.0106197.12010/01/08212,687.64

    39780.0113561.282010/01/15214,715.07

    39787.0107682.982010/01/22204,124.97

    39794.0114192.672010/01/29197,043.68

    39801.0119607.68

    39808.0112848.17

    39813.0117065.27

    2009/1/10113947.22

    39830.0111405.22

    39834.0108398.13

    39850.0114,090.37

    39857.0117,227.46

    144439.99

    143703.97

    141196.12

    135772.81

    133737.67

    140356.74

    144227.87

    145010.53

    145707.31

    148238.88

    149150.68

    151205.21

    155385.24

    156272.9

    159821.53

    159604.96

    154965.99

    156103.72

    157588.6

    157576.71

    159529.42

    156448.69

    156761.89

    155347.92

    157130.71

    153447.41

    159164.97

    165444.14

    169398.25

    172925.42

    174769.85

    179757.89

    177529.75

    172735.2

    168063.56

    170140.12

    157598.52

    160795.79

    157705.47

    163857.04

    162782.03

    157177.6

    156991.63

    158481.45

    157689.07

    160996.7

    164495.84

    159787.55

    162907.28

    163924.87

    163583.9

    168670.52

    168629.61

    170866.92

    172863.21

    171933.13

    174240.69

    177051.47

    177599.29

    179646.2

    183765.9

    188344.47

    188531.02

    186171.63

    188999.59

    193769.75

    193965.56

    192113.1

    193650.86

    193299.16

    192326.48

    194372.09

    193130.89

    188739.76

    187223.2

    190932.32

    194474.46

    198125.17

    198745.49

    196235.3

    196451.03

    199327.23

    198514.31

    198833.98

    201938.09

    204226.39

    205577.2

    212312.88

    218214.93

    219869.04

    227627.58

    234421.33

    236873.99

    226406.06

    224179.99

    222285.93

    201467.25

    216366.48

    223732.71

    224680.65

    225138.38

    227003.79

    236111.84

    239910.33

    236132.43

    239238.6

    239825.49

    231718.26

    224420.02

    219727.95

    209422.04

    215943.65

    219505.48

    205564.26

    201046.69

    212134.02

    208047.67

    203526.51

    196971.91

    195085.13

    200149.54

    205840.43

    213833.75

    216832.16

    207486.52

    216546.9

    219460.88

    217945

    225984.94

    231188.64

    226936.41

    227557.07

    223309.87

    233604.81

    224407.53

    218919.79

    222265.786371573

    205992.9

    200860.42

    192030.98

    183855.33

    184329.49

    173548.83

    184187.79

    178385.08

    183695.58

    183326.08

    176236.04

    179664.82

    160930.46

    161000.08

    152398.44

    151223.83

    146409.31

    130865.69

    126527.88

    116858.98

    124031.87

    120757.31

    113381.14

    106197.1

    113561.28

    107682.98

    114192.67

    119607.68

    112848.17

    117065.27

    113947.22

    111405.22

    108398.13

    114090.37

    117227.46

    116362.84

    118466.51

    124429.35

    126000.08

    136345.66

    139596.03

    145811.36

    145036.66

    148000.98

    150974.18

    165743.3

    163426.7

    169628.04

    173488.26

    172735.45

    162445.59

    156930.76

    162965.27

    168033.63

    170604.18

    172749.06

    175942.04

    178655.9

    179138.24

    173748.33

    168714.27

    172830.97

    181517.05

    186212.83

    191467.14

    186852.84

    188588.99

    192757.22

    196533.53

    194863.08

    187279.62

    190622.36

    195802.04

    196637.54

    191705.91

    195799.47

    199549.13

    198792.22

    204703.11

    210331.82

    212687.64

    214715.07

    204124.97

    197043.68

    Market Capitalization At Weekend(Preliminary Statistics)

    2009

    2005/09/02144,187.15

    2005/09/09144,296.47

    2005/09/16142,249.15

    2005/09/23139,797.88

    2005/09/30144,439.99

    2005/10/07143,703.97

    2005/10/14141,196.12

    2005/10/21135,772.81

    2005/10/28133,737.67

    2005/11/04140,356.74

    2005/11/11144,227.87

    2005/11/18145,010.53

    2005/11/25145,707.31

    2005/12/02148,238.88

    2005/12/09149,150.68

    2005/12/16151,205.21

    2005/12/23155,385.24

    2005/12/30156,272.90

    2006/01/06159,821.53

    2006/01/13159,604.96

    2006/01/20154,965.99

    2006/01/25156,103.72

    2006/02/03157,588.60

    2006/02/10157,576.71

    2006/02/17159,529.42

    2006/02/24156,448.69

    2006/03/03156,761.89

    2006/03/10155,347.92

    2006/03/17157,130.71

    2006/03/24153,447.41

    2006/03/31159,164.97

    2006/04/07165,444.14

    2006/04/14169,398.25

    2006/04/21172,925.42

    2006/04/28174,769.85

    2006/05/05179,757.89

    2006/05/12177,529.75

    2006/05/19172,735.20

    2006/05/26168,063.56

    2006/06/02170,140.12

    2006/06/09157,598.52

    2006/06/16160,795.79

    2006/06/23157,705.47

    2006/06/30163,857.04

    2006/07/07162,782.03

    2006/07/14157,177.60

    2006/07/21156,991.63

    2006/07/28158,481.45

    2006/08/04157,689.07

    2006/08/11160,996.70

    2006/08/18164,495.84

    2006/08/25159,787.55

    2006/09/01162,907.28

    2006/09/08163,924.87

    2006/09/15163,583.90

    2006/09/22168,670.52

    2006/09/29168,629.61

    2006/10/05170,866.92

    2006/10/14172,863.21

    2006/10/20171,933.13

    2006/10/27174,240.69

    2006/11/03177,051.47

    2006/11/10177,599.29

    2006/11/17179,646.20

    2006/11/24183,765.90

    2006/12/01188,344.47

    2006/12/08188,531.02

    2006/12/15186,171.63

    2006/12/22188,999.59

    2006/12/29193,769.75

    2007/01/05193,965.56

    2007/01/12192,113.10

    2007/01/19193,650.86

    2007/01/26193,299.16

    2007/02/02192,326.48

    2007/02/09194,372.09

    2007/02/14193,130.89

    2007/03/03188,739.76

    2007/03/09187,223.20

    2007/03/16190,932.32

    2007/03/23194,474.46

    2007/04/04198,125.17

    2007/04/14198,745.49

    2007/04/20196,235.30

    2007/04/27196,451.03

    2007/05/04199,327.23

    2007/05/11198,514.31

    2007/05/18198,833.98

    2007/05/25201,938.09

    2007/06/01204,226.39

    2007/06/08205,577.20

    2007/06/15212,312.88

    2007/06/23218,214.93

    2007/06/29219,869.04

    2007/07/06227,627.58

    2007/07/13234,421.33

    2007/07/20236,873.99

    2007/07/27226,406.06

    2007/08/03224,179.99

    2007/08/10222,285.93

    2007/08/17201,467.25

    2007/08/24216,366.48

    2007/08/31223,732.71

    2007/09/07224,680.65

    2007/09/14225,138.38

    2007/09/21227,003.79

    2007/09/29236,111.84

    2007/10/05239,910.33

    2007/10/12236,132.43

    2007/10/19239,238.60

    2007/10/26239,825.49

    2007/11/02231,718.26

    2007/11/09224,420.02

    2007/11/16219,727.95

    2007/11/23209,422.04

    2007/11/30215,943.65

    2007/12/07219,505.48

    2007/12/14205,564.26

    2007/12/21201,046.69

    2007/12/28212,134.02

    2008/01/04208,047.67

    2008/01/11203,526.51

    2008/01/25196,971.91

    2008/02/01195,085.13

    2008/02/15200,149.54

    2008/02/22205,840.43

    2008/02/29213,833.75

    2008/03/07216,832.16

    2008/03/14207,486.52

    2008/03/21216,546.90

    2008/03/28219,460.88

    2008/04/03217,945.00

    2008/04/11225,984.94

    2008/04/18231,188.64

    2008/04/25226,936.41

    2008/05/02227,557.07

    2008/05/09223,309.87

    2008/05/16233,604.81

    2008/05/23224,407.53

    2008/05/30218,919.79

    2008/06/06222,265.79

    2008/06/13205,992.90

    2008/06/20200,860.42

    2008/06/27192,030.98

    2008/07/04183,855.33

    2008/07/11184,329.49

    2008/07/18173,548.83

    2008/07/25184,187.79

    2008/08/01178,385.08

    2008/08/08183,695.58

    2008/08/15183,326.08

    2008/08/22176,236.04

    2008/08/29179,664.82

    2008/09/05160,930.46

    2008/09/12161,000.08

    2008/09/19152,398.44

    2008/09/26151,223.83

    2008/10/03146,409.31

    2008/10/09130,865.69

    2008/10/17126,527.88

    2008/10/24116,858.98

    2008/10/31124,031.87

    2008/11/07120,757.31

    2008/11/14113,381.14

    2008/11/21106,197.10

    2008/11/28113,561.28

    2008/12/05107,682.98

    2008/12/12114,192.67

    2008/12/19119,607.68

    2008/12/26112,848.17

    2008/12/31117,065.27

    2009/01/10113,947.22

    2009/01/17111,405.22

    2009/01/21108,398.13

    2009/02/06114,090.37

    2009/02/13117,227.46

    2009/02/27116,362.84

    2009/03/06118,466.51

    39885.0124,429.35

    39892.0126,000.08

    39899.0136,345.66

    39906.0139,596.03

    39913.0145,811.36

    39920.0145,036.66

    39927.0148,000.98

    39933.0150,974.18

    39941.0165,743.30

    39948.0163,426.70

    39955.0169,628.04

    39960.0173,488.26

    39970.0172,735.45

    39976.0162,445.59

    39983.0156,930.76

    39990.0162,965.27

    39997.0168,033.63

    40004.0170,604.18

    40011.0172,749.06

    40018.0175,942.04

    40025.0178,655.90

    40031.0179,138.24

    40039.0173,748.33

    40046.0168,714.27

    40053.0172,830.97

    40060.0181,517.05

    40067.0186,212.83

    40074.0191,467.14

    40081.0186,852.84

    40088.0188,588.99

    40095.0192,757.22

    40102.0196,533.53

    40109.0194,863.08

    40116.0187,279.62

    40123.0190,622.36

    40130.0195,802.04

    40137.0196,637.54

    40144.0191,705.91

    2009/12/04195799.47

    2009/12/11199549.13

    2009/12/18198792.22

    2009/12/25204703.11

    2009/12/31210331.82

    2010/01/08212,687.64

    2010/01/15214,715.07

    2010/01/22204,124.97

    2010/01/29197,043.68

    Customer:

    &C&"Times New Roman,":&P/&NPAGE:&P/&N

    Customer:

  • (160)

    Chart1

    16987

    15276

    15078

    14742

    10460

    9763

    9112

    7402

    8387

    8314

    7541

    7613

    9217

    11083

    11204

    12315

    11893

    10989

    11227

    13206

    13140

    13362

    13729

    15022

    14223

    16131

    18265

    19967

    22076

    23251

    20016

    21398

    18981

    20531

    21192

    19465

    20983

    22343

    25912

    30648

    37148

    40385

    45004

    45211

    44684

    49624

    54568

    62184

    81424

    84014

    80461

    87559

    81503

    76983

    71526

    69120

    78030

    86575

    85008

    107259

    126770

    143462

    137309

    131074

    107326

    93902

    73160

    75550

    72071

    77887

    79170

    81220

    80475

    80500

    76272

    86877

    70382

    71933

    72171

    66060

    70236

    67932

    62677

    61936

    64929

    60938

    65316

    70372

    87748

    89177

    96288

    106838

    105677

    126747

    113932

    116578

    121919

    116438

    131047

    113587

    125048

    138878

    151612

    175729

    176942

    187349

    172982

    146577

    140781

    162037

    173762

    (160)-

    (160)-

    16,98737,14870,236

    15,27640,38567,932

    15,07845,00462,677

    14,74245,21161,936

    10,46044,68464,929

    9,76349,62460,938

    9,11254,56865,316

    7,40262,18470,372

    8,38781,42487,748

    8,31484,01489,177

    7,54180,46196,288

    7,61387,559106,838

    9,21781,503105,677

    11,08376,983126,747

    11,20471,526113,932

    12,31569,120116,578

    11,89378,030121,919

    10,98986,575116,438

    11,22785,008131,047

    13,206107,259113,587

    13,140126,770125,048

    13,362143,462138,878

    13,729137,309151,612

    15,022131,074175,729

    14,223107,326176,942

    16,13193,902187,349

    18,26573,160172,982

    19,96775,550146,577

    22,07672,071140,781

    23,25177,887162,037

    20,01679,170173,762

    21,39881,220

    18,98180,475

    20,53180,500

    21,19276,272

    19,46586,877

    20,98370,382

    22,34371,933

    25,91272,171

    30,64866,060

    (160)-

    72,97865,710126,550

    66,32662,588131,295

    74,60865,928141,108

    73,48963,784144,810

    78,07766,009130,287

    84,81254,339138,041

    79,12667,939158,075

    80,51465,633157,125

    77,58664,012161,014

    81,67567,625181,793

    80,43367,722195,632

    81,53976,151177,232

    82,99881,387195,157

    76,96483,250165,690

    79,65297,765187,962

    77,79084,343178,007

    75,17687,045201,296

    88,226100,231149,052

    69,70989,732179,671

    74,21793,012201,519

    80,915101,521165,696

    89,606104,086138,695

    86,264118,877140,295

    84,189100,033136,752

    71,743117,761144,451

    70,098103,097142,134

    69,598129,535146,239

    69,443130,692162,999

    67,545114,575172,630

    79,298120,889155,916

    75,987108,273171,402

    65,254113,971195,919

    77,209134,657203,540

    62,25599,380

    67,286112,012

    67,324138,664

    68,014114,667

    71,540118,955

    71,745108,680

    63,272124,265

    70,221118,526

    69,572145,366

    67,674129,472

    61,565121,137

    59,100117,339

    63,298112,425

    61,951111,958

    61,191114,400

    (160)-

  • 1988-2008GNP

    Chart1

    100100100

    112.9707112971103.3787788975125.6756756757

    128.4518828452111.4997036159204.3243243243

    146.0251046025117.1310017783206.7567567568

    164.4351464435121.3989330172206.7567567568

    187.8661087866124.7184350919210.8108108108

    220.920502092128.5121517487240.5405405405

    294.5606694561138.9448725548513.5135135135

    390.3765690377204.979253112672.972972973

    409.6234309623215.708358032721.6216216216

    481.1715481172221.0432720806759.4594594595

    553.5564853556236.6330764671808.1081081081

    671.129707113250.2667457024932.4324324324

    819.2468619247274.68879668051248.6486486486

    1001.6736401674326.91167753412056.7567567568

    1141.4225941423380.32009484291975.6756756757

    1133.8912133891391.5234143451878.3783783784

    1205.0209205021396.85832839361848.6486486486

    1352.719665272396.73977474811905.4054054054

    1409.2050209205396.14700652041878.3783783784

    1703.3472803347398.87374036751940.5405405405

    2258.1589958159400.94842916422505.4054054054

    2725.1046025105406.10551274456227.027027027

    3265.690376569424.00711321879116.2162162162

    3483.2635983264441.55305275649086.4864864865

    3858.5774058577457.49851807948145.945945946

    4528.0334728034477.94902193248548.6486486486

    4720.920502092491.99762892719551.3513513514

    5097.9079497908512.2110254899762.1621621622

    5482.4267782427531.06105512749416.2162162162

    5738.0753138075547.30290456439089.1891891892

    5877.8242677824552.28215767639413.5135135135

    5344.3514644352561.52934202739951.3513513514

    5747.6987447699562.53704801429843.2432432432

    6159.4142259414569.590989922910424.3243243243

    5584.9372384937569.531713100210164.8648648649

    5692.050209205568.40545346779929.7297297297

    5862.7615062762566.804979253110567.5675675676

    6341.4225941423575.992886781311016.2162162162

    6722.5941422594589.2708950811300

    6891.6317991632592.76822762313648.6486486486

    7235.9832635983603.438055720216837.8378378378

    7539.7489539749624.718435091916189.1891891892

    GNP(1968=100)

    (1968=100)

    (1966=100)

    GNP

    Sheet1

    1966100.00100.00100.00

    1967112.97103.38125.68

    1968128.45111.50204.32

    1969146.03117.13206.76

    1970164.44121.40206.76

    1971187.87124.72210.81

    1972220.92128.51240.54

    1973294.56138.94513.51

    1974390.38204.98672.97

    1975409.62215.71721.62

    1976481.17221.04759.46

    1977553.56236.63808.11

    1978671.13250.27932.43

    1979819.25274.691,248.65

    19801,001.67326.912,056.76

    19811,141.42380.321,975.68

    19821,133.89391.521,878.38

    19831,205.02396.861,848.65

    19841,352.72396.741,905.41

    19851,409.21396.151,878.38

    19861,703.35398.871,940.54

    19872,258.16400.952,505.41

    19882,725.10406.116,227.03

    19893,265.69424.019,116.22

    19903,483.26441.559,086.49

    19913,858.58457.508,145.95

    19924,528.03477.958,548.65

    19934,720.92492.009,551.35

    19945,097.91512.219,762.16

    19955,482.43531.069,416.22

    19965,738.08547.309,089.19

    19975,877.82552.289,413.51

    19985,344.35561.539,951.35

    19995,747.70562.549,843.24

    20006,159.41569.5910,424.32

    20015,584.94569.5310,164.86

    20025,692.05568.419,929.73

    20035,862.76566.8010,567.57

    20046,341.42575.9911,016.22

    20056,722.59589.2711,300.00

    20066,891.63592.7713,648.65

    20077,235.98603.4416,837.84

    20087,539.75624.7216,189.19

    Sheet1

    GNP(1968=100)

    (1968=100)

    (1966=100)

    GNP

  • ECFA 1. 2. 20087.64.13.5 3. 34,3952008335,4021997 4. 511.96205562.12007 5. 6. 7.

  • ECFA1.200350%90%4352.11173.ECFA A53.83

  • ECFA4. MOUECFA105.2010200

  • 2009

  • 1877A22,917413.628712E2848571.93977A11,418698.24977D31,093310.05981820691.05()500.8069879461.31411.871.179872124.03500.71124.031.78898730224.46462.852.46

  • 99881310072917143 1371.6412826.41109810153.683.711,332.8402.751198112329.9422SOGOKTV10282.232,295.2208971299128116.167.892.35679.08139912887.126.27719.48

  • 97

  • 97

  • 97

  • 97

  • 8997

  • 8997

  • 8997

  • 8997

  • 7798

  • 2006-2009Q3

  • 2006-2009Q3

    Chart1

    3019.28.58.66.78.110.6

    3119.78.98.66.7811.1

    32.820.39.28.76.68.610.8

    35.520.79.28.577.911.3

    35.7218.397.28.111.5

    3621.69.49.46.4811.9

    36.8218.797.7811.5

    3520.98.49.47.17.812.5

    35.9228.99.27.48.512.5

    37.222.69.19.87911.8

    32.421.39.49.16.68.512.3

    29.119.88.78.97.37.910.8

    28.319.38.58.51233396376.1787411636810.5

    29.720.29.05807564198.70951502836.66842427668.010228335211.2803296132

    37.223.89.89.26.18.311.5

    2006-2008Q4

    2006Q12006Q22006Q32006Q42007Q12007Q22007Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q3

    37.3639.4238.3236.9339.1239.2842.3939.9439.9238.1538.5640.4038.0334.0734.10

    33.6134.7832.4632.6133.5435.9837.2638.1837.0335.1435.1435.3036.5431.7434.10

    35.4135.7734.1535.5539.6537.0340.1539.8742.0741.4737.9437.2044.4140.9540.10

    32.7637.0636.8036.0233.2535.2733.9137.1237.4036.4439.9235.7034.7638.1936.50

    39.5439.9341.1438.1341.2439.9640.8351.2047.7644.5440.8440.1045.0242.2146.10

    41.1240.3838.1138.8340.8040.3440.6239.4042.9642.8040.6139.9044.0039.2442.60

    37.3537.6937.1938.5739.7839.2840.2043.0443.5841.3238.8342.0049.2640.8735.60

    38.5635.7837.7238.2438.7638.6837.2437.4740.3837.9837.3938.9040.9241.2639.00

    2006-2008Q4

    2006Q12006Q22006Q32006Q42007Q12007Q22007Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q3

    1,169.201,255.101,313.561,327.411,454.031,476.601,638.851,436.361,497.611,549.501,448.161,397.00129914341523

    641.54680.09666.82666.96708.72772.12784.22797.99823.64788.38736.68732.00749747794

    300.89321.82320.11326.52343.90358.81353.91345.65402.61391.41384.22336.00369396419

    346.34403.49400.24412.72385.92420.39399.14466.68467.55432.23459.78390.00350445408

    336.00317.44389.88299.89398.02417.13397.12504.61426.76472.21409.41407.00451503511

    357.88374.26353.75336.22375.55400.43394.05381.95433.97446.01385.83387.00438357436

    265.05269.13266.15278.27302.70266.84332.99318.65334.92317.68272.67324.00380284235

    316.88297.86321.35313.39332.48316.01306.41309.23355.28347.25338.82316.00346367348

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    0000000

    2006-2008Q4

    2006Q12006Q22006Q32006Q42007Q12007Q22007Q32007Q42008Q12008Q22008Q32008Q42009Q12009Q22009Q3

    303132.835.535.73636.83535.937.232.429.128.329.737.2

    19.219.720.320.72121.62120.92222.621.319.819.320.223.8

    8.58.99.29.28.39.48.78.48.99.19.48.78.59.19.8

    10.611.110.811.311.511.911.512.512.511.812.310.810.511.311.5

    8.18.19.18.21010.599.79.210.79.910.29.311.411.1

    8.68.68.78.599.499.49.29.89.18.98.58.79.2

    6.76.76.677.26.47.77.17.476.67.36.26.76.1

    8.188.67.98.1887.88.598.57.98.08.08.3

    2006-2008Q4

  • 10

  • 93-97

  • 96-97

  • 1.VULW2. 3.M 4. 5.Maslow6.

  • (Maslow)

  • 2008

  • 20091-10

  • -

  • -

  • 97 98 97 98 97 98 97 98 97 98 5040-20.00 53-40.00 290.48294.571.41 374418.92 568.07950.4267.31 151713.33 110.00 97.871,969.271,912.13 116-45.45 73.0421.17-71.02 2018-10.00 31-66.67 130.5323.02-82.36 1916-15.79 167.5445.19-73.03 8575-11.76 95-44.44 518.882,286.86340.73 6766-1.49 808.651,016.7825.74

  • -

  • -

  • -

  • -

  • Chart1

    89276103102

    10621499619

    92787108876

    96456106460

    8947867600

    13623372017

    254916101399

    223708143238

    215002197678

    145687194762

    102992152205

    129604113142

    8512797849

    5658285233

    44880141955

    2438970329

    3863562272

    6434181364

    11098196614

    121622104904

    115341123876

    106071130334

    70388111183

    5118075870

    2

    3

    1

    3

    2004

    93

    ()

    196,7859,973,6950

    262,5576,659,2600

    355,4196,335,4870

    434,5393,819,5860

    530,4913,482,5680

    619,4513,051,8400

    715,9302,205,2770

    815,2332,083,0820

    910,8001,198,0250

    1010,4771,575,7650

    118,6451,041,3090

    128,251985,1760

    137,7221,455,1340

    147,5011,223,3290

    155,811772,3230

    165,319686,8670

    174,880726,6880

    184,552717,2280

    194,312949,6680

    203,684470,3880

    213,442583,8710

    221,719245,8760

    2345668,9020

    2421138,7810

    00

    00

    00

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    &A

    Page &P

    93110

    2004

    93

    ()

    1607,3560

    2149,8160

    3108,2370

    482,8500

    563,1340

    657,7610

    743,7740

    843,5970

    940,3800

    1034,3970

    1126,5310

    1225,9550

    1324,5070

    1424,3310

    1517,5160

    1617,4940

    1715,7220

    1814,8770

    1914,5070

    2011,5410

    217,0490

    222,3820

    231,8930

    249650

    256220

    0

    0

    0

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    93110

    2004

    93

    ()

    19,2561,210,8300

    26,589771,2290

    33,011513,7670

    41,467443,0020

    51,345290,9570

    6977216,8520

    7928175,2420

    8829291,0510

    951083,1340

    1043483,8630

    1132899,3490

    1228496,2670

    1322835,9410

    1417450,0020

    1512319,8560

    1611527,5850

    1710015,8770

    188925,0940

    198316,9250

    208018,8520

    216113,2510

    225613,0750

    234212,4910

    241630

    2513510

    00

    00

    00

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    93110

    2004

    93

    ()

    114,2742,077,6870

    25,835865,6400

    35,5941,008,9440

    45,356724,5770

    55,017864,6560

    64,739850,3800

    74,078732,8090

    83,507617,5720

    93,324449,6570

    103,082791,4550

    112,422572,3180

    121,554247,1320

    131,492221,6740

    141,348266,8900

    151,262209,4090

    161,155176,6320

    171,026239,1920

    181,013229,2820

    19993176,3160

    20904189,2380

    21654107,1410

    2233759,6640

    2318935,7040

    2416632,5100

    25627,4870

    00

    00

    00

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

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    0

    0

    0

    0

    93110

    2004

    93

    ()

    1262,0340

    2260,1000

    3220,7020

    4207,8310

    5122,2470

    6118,9660

    786,6190

    876,5660

    966,5810

    1055,7400

    1150,6640

    1239,8820

    1334,4880

    1423,5560

    1522,6040

    1620,2480

    1713,6640

    1813,1370

    1911,0280

    2010,5860

    219,6530

    228,5500

    233,9500

    243,9430

    253,0010

    0

    0

    0

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    93110

    2004

    93

    ()

    120,5772,951,5970

    218,5392,714,3130

    310,6811,641,4070

    47,5131,353,0190

    57,1691,071,9230

    67,1661,317,0140

    76,7551,459,7020

    86,3701,098,3700

    94,7931,061,0430

    104,320953,4990

    112,013435,9940

    122,004278,6310

    131,830445,2390

    141,677288,9710

    151,672321,7760

    161,544245,0380

    171,265233,9610

    181,205215,8220

    191,045191,8030

    201,041266,4150

    21960169,6450

    2240087,4340

    2327954,6340

    2413928,2750

    2571,1590

    00

    00

    00

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    93110

    2004

    93

    ()

    121,7513,104,8610

    216,1522,411,5400

    33,859501,0390

    42,773389,2840

    51,404269,8060

    6826255,9450

    7720131,9830

    849885,3350

    9454150,3430

    1042085,8250

    1141690,7640

    1227360,3220

    1325459,5050

    1424155,2740

    1521839,5690

    1618638,7280

    1715651,0750

    1812117,9370

    198820,5410

    207214,0470

    215510,7180

    22458,7430

    23192,3210

    2451,2070

    00

    00

    00

    2004

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    &A

    Page &P

    93110

    ()

    89,276103,102

    106,21418.97%99,619-3.38%

    92,787-12.64%108,8769.29%

    96,4563.95%106,460-2.22%

    89,478-7.23%67,600-36.50%

    136,23352.25%72,0176.53%

    254,91687.12%101,39940.80%

    223,708-12.24%143,23841.26%

    215,002-3.89%197,67838.01%

    145,687-32.24%194,762-1.48%

    102,992-29.31%152,205-21.85%

    129,60425.84%113,142-25.66%

    85,127-34.32%97,849-13.52%

    56,582-33.53%85,233-12.89%

    44,880-20.68%141,95566.55%

    24,389-45.66%70,329-50.46%

    38,63558.41%62,272-11.46%

    64,34166.54%81,36430.66%

    110,98172.49%96,61418.74%

    121,6229.59%104,9048.58%

    115,341-5.16%123,87618.09%

    106,071-12.79%130,33424.24%

    70,388-33.64%111,183-14.69%

    51,180-27.29%75,870-31.76%

    2

    3

    1

    3

  • Chart1

    305917000

    416724000

    583132061

    760845181

    1159966777

    1476880478

    15330104645

    19810151685

    31460194795

    22800247131

    36661297651

    48096306495

    47755271614

    33126219151

    26809185476

    26768205996

    25781220646

    28779224728

    3641,5102,3023,2753,7292,3911,7951,4231,478

    5,46521,44324,36723,60518,13614,42411,29910,55513,321

    6722,2851,3811,5511,5231,4321,2251,2061,394

    6,50125,23828,05028,43123,38818,24714,31913,18416,193

    2.893.043.113.13252.8132.932.892.882.99

    ()11.2144.2769.8388.71101.467584439

    61372372825748251561965915,85612,52411,76114,715

    5.60%5.98%8.21%11.52%15.94%13.10%12.54%10.79%9.13%

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    109363560742987639476415399

    1,1805,6438,4947,7856,5795,2663,9844,2564,550

    136804831567884493433341391

    1,4256,8109,8859,0948,4506,3984,8935,0125,340

    3.33.233.393.25253.1533.053.033.183.05

    ()3.5321.0818.1731.2343.3928231417

    131664479325835274635,7594,4174,5974,941

    7.65%5.33%5.67%8.16%11.68%9.99%9.73%8.28%7.47%

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    705971,1101,3201,188794630676505

    1,5427,2037,6448,7296,9814,4545,1016,4666,994

    96485357417512231274518394

    1,7088,2859,11110,4668,6815,4796,0057,6607,893

    3.173.433.13.123.063.173.043.163.34

    ()1.7513.0922.0727.9631.7419201610

    163876888001914674934,6855,3756,9847,388

    4.10%7.21%12.18%12.61%13.69%14.49%10.49%8.83%6.40%

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    1,0091,3343,1353,5354,1393,1894,0215,6687,8007,4435,7633,9934,1294,129

    2,5994,57311,21117,36422,08929,58431,38436,64739,33726,37320,60217,42120,79720,797

    9921,4452,9003,2863,4825,8185,1714,1464,6063,1862,5272,0601,9881,988

    4,6007,35217,24624,18529,71038,59140,57646,46151,74337,00228,89223,47426,91426,914

    1.902.93.43.754.23.433.263.223.242.8932.842.842.862.86

    ()69.281.02147.42179.53149.73150.94106.1141.91268.48271.4239174145145

    35916018141112065025571354023655540793439432955923,12919,48122,78522,785

    21.93%18.14%18.18%14.62%13.93%8.26%9.91%12.20%15.07%20.12%19.95%17.01%15.34%15.34%

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    5517382,1502,0313,0473,2042,8464,3995,5787,7445,1373,7093,5473,392

    1,0252,2987,3479,76818,11126,41629,78034,24531,49631,91023,49919,07721,12324,022

    4868681,7161,5341,8352,6512,3992,2532,2323,0842,4801,7941,7731,951

    2,0623,90411,21313,33322,99332,27135,02540,89739,30642,73831,11624,58026,44329,365

    2.502.22.83.183.73.63.243.173.0752.7782.672.722.842.963

    ()34.335.69115.7588.85110.66108.6774.7100.37151.31225.916413498110.14

    1511316690631130219946290673217936498337283499425,97920,87122,89625,973

    26.72%18.90%19.17%15.23%13.25%9.93%8.13%10.76%14.19%18.12%16.51%15.09%13.41%11.55%

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    9697

    1742033716251,0689811,0321,6441,8912,6172,7632,2982,1141,980

    1,1021,2243,7786,31112,40912,84617,80918,21122,54920,99820,37415,08714,89414,788

    4845281,0921,0861,7921,8852,0982,2442,0852,2471,9201,3571,4071,548

    1,7601,9555,2418,02215,26915,71220,93922,09926,52525,86225,05718,74218,41518,316

    2.602.93.63.84.33.043.033.093.1352.9382.932.832.772.83

    ()9.511.1320.4727.939.1440.4735.0553.4468.63114.6135887050

    158617524870739714201147311990720455246342324522,29416,44416,30116,336

    9.89%10.38%7.08%7.79%6.99%6.24%4.93%7.44%7.13%10.12%11.03%12.26%11.48%10.81%

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    7681,0492,9993,3343,9353,9995,0198,83311,1938,0464,4283,1953,6263,205

    1,5992,7309,46413,86720,67625,34838,81845,57041,80124,87518,01612,08615,02114,420

    1,0851,2401,9412,2642,5172,6781,6682,6253,1342,9702,2501,1481,2882,041

    3,4525,01914,40419,46527,12832,02545,50557,02856,12835,89124,69416,42919,93519,666

    2.002.42.83.053.432.282.052.622.852.5682.792.592.702.74

    ()50.570.94180.17164.07186.94196.18183.07221.86371.14388.1196161143105

    26843970114051613123193280264048648195449352784520,26613,23416,30916,461

    22.25%20.90%20.82%17.13%14.51%12.49%11.03%15.49%19.94%22.42%17.93%19.45%18.19%16.30%

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    0

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    :%

    96

    3544996601,0321,6331,0049781,3711,8222,0101,573505652797

    3,0712,8954,2497,10111,62810,2889,24011,99913,53111,5859,1423,2854,6064,525

    4575227529451,3521,5341,1061,3381,2719861,127413349570

    3,8823,9165,6619,07814,61312,82611,32414,70816,62414,58111,8424,2035,6075,892

    4.003.73.43.834.253.283.043.123.12252.9932.932.893.153.06

    ()15.726.9236.7966.9671.940.7929.9829.1358.7485.8294413756

    352834175001804612980118221034613337148021257110,2693,6984,9555,095

    9.12%12.74%11.66%11.37%11.17%7.83%8.64%9.32%10.96%13.79%13.28%12.02%11.63%13.53%

    :85

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    :%

    96

    4585651,1221,2181,9731,6091,6182,4774,0804,1552,1671,8852,0032,090

    1,2092,4424,4256,23010,89813,38514,42017,53917,84011,0976,8758,23313,11515,269

    7548271,2521,0521,6192,7292,0432,2072,5932,6222,0821,9172,3862,751

    2,4213,8346,7998,50014,49017,72318,08122,22324,51317,87411,12412,03517,50420,110

    2.002.633.533.753.153.023.022.86252.5482.552.752.913.06

    ()38.445.6377.2575.4271.9564.3155.6763.6131.43189.4121111112134

    19633269567772821251716114164631974620433137198,95710,15015,50118,020

    18.92%14.74%16.50%14.33%13.62%9.08%8.95%11.15%16.64%23.25%19.48%15.66%11.44%10.39%

    :85

    4582421

    5653834

    11226799

    12188500

    197314490

    160917723

    161818081

    247722223

    408024513

    415517874

    216711124

    188512035

    200317504

    209020110

    38.4

    45.63

    77.25

    75.42

    71.95

    64.31

    55.67

    63.6

    131.43

    189.4

    121.11

    110.91

    111.69

    133.69

    :

    ()

    0.1891780256

    0.1473656755

    0.1650242683

    0.1432941176

    0.1361628709

    0.0907859843

    0.089486201

    0.1114610989

    0.1664422959

    0.2324605572

    0.1948040273

    0.1566

    0.1144

    0.1039283938

    :%

    9496

    7581,0021,8981,6821,8632,3962,4044,0305,1742,1871,2861,2901,8141,760

    2,4313,6984,9156,0297,71411,70911,75014,97912,4655,0273,0383,0284,7225,600

    8999531,6641,4941,3541,9541,5572,0392,4611,6991,1641,0721,2801,417

    4,0885,6538,4779,20510,93116,05915,71121,04820,1008,9135,4885,3907,8168,777

    2.70333.133.433.053.122.922.69252.1882.01752.042.342.57

    ()43.852.8107.0671.6379.599.0384.34108.65247.17202.2108.88137119127

    3330465165797523906813663133071701814926672642024,1006,0027,017

    18.54%17.73%22.39%18.27%17.04%14.92%15.30%19.15%25.74%24.54%23.43%23.93%23.21%20.05%

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    9496

    1,2081,4541,3161,0881,3041,1231,2021,8491,9781,6581,078943898830

    3,8505,3033,6564,3606,1316,1827,2018,0965,6053,1162,7322,7032,5452,821

    1,3431,6181,2601,4471,2711,3491,1401,3541,3001,231989723835844

    6,4018,3756,2326,8958,7068,6549,54311,2998,8836,0054,7994,3694,2784,495

    3.003.333.23.653.23.163.052.79252.2952.18252.122.272.41

    ()112.6155.43140103.39150.83158.7112.75110.58223.55225.8197.96154.39139.07156.53

    519369214916580774027531834194506905434737213,4263,3803,665

    18.87%17.36%21.12%15.78%14.98%12.98%12.60%16.36%22.27%27.61%22.46%21.58%20.99%18.46%

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    94

    5517641,0277858489551,2102,4181,3201,9651,035848911962

    2,3223,9193,2574,1865,9515,7877,82110,8058,7295,0543,0782,7453,0613,807

    5225508319911,0461,1921,0631,6194171,1888551,017807847

    3,3955,2335,1155,9627,8457,93410,09414,84210,4668,2074,9684,6104,7795,616

    3.103.53.53.383.753.363.182.953.122.2482.352.122.282.54

    ()45.363.294.6760.4453.8575.7560.2987.8827.96191.2134.79120.3386.22112.00

    2844446940885177699769798884124249146624239333,7623,8684,654

    16.23%14.60%20.08%13.17%10.81%12.04%11.99%16.29%12.61%23.94%20.83%18.39%19.06%17.13%

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    9496

    3,0594,1675,8317,60811,59914,76815,33019,81031,46022,80036,66148,09647,75533,12626,80926,76825,78128,779

    --19,20829,082-52,30275,216115,607141,545202,512238,596234,721201,678165,394141,111161,268174,546174,546

    --7,0228,491-13,40814,09916,26821,79021,81922,39423,67825,18920,63117,55617,96020,31920,319

    17,00024,00032,06145,18166,77780,478104,645151,685194,795247,131297,651306,495271,614219,151185,476205,996220,646224,728

    2.32.42.642.944-3.1673.433.833.163.053.063.00252.732.75593752.72.82.88527777782.8852777778

    ()182270419.3542.76697.83919.58838.19914.5934.84820.391027.51872.252187.621620.861388.841195.81159.931159.93

    13941198332623037573551786571089315131875163335224331260990258399223859186025158,667179,228194,865195,949

    17.99%17.36%18.19%16.84%17.37%18.35%14.65%13.06%16.15%9.23%12.32%15.69%17.58%15.12%14.45%12.99%11.68%12.81%

    :85

    :

    ()

    0.1799411765

    0.173625

    0.1818720564

    0.1683893672

    0.1737

    0.1835035662

    0.1464952936

    0.1305995979

    0.1615031187

    0.0922587615

    0.1231677367

    0.1569226252

    0.1758193613

    0.1511560522

    0.1445416119

    0.1299442708

    0.1168432693

    :%

  • 8098

    Chart1

    25491217000

    22370824000

    21500232061

    14568745181

    10299266777

    12960480478

    85127104645

    56608151685

    44880194795

    24389247131

    38635297651

    64341306495

    110981271614

    121652219151

    116166185476

    106108205996

    70388220646

    51180224728

    8080289,503---

    8181317,4349.65%17,000-

    8282371,72017.10%24,00041.18%

    8383462,57724.44%32,06133.59%

    8484491,8846.34%45,18140.92%

    8585508,7483.43%66,77747.80%

    8686466,568-8.29%80,47820.52%

    8787385,969-17.27%104,64530.03%

    8888385,074-0.23%151,68544.95%

    8989321,165-16.60%194,79528.42%

    9090259,494-19.20%247,13126.87%

    9191320,28523.43%297,65120.44%

    9292349,7069.19%306,4952.97%

    9393418,18719.58%271,614-11.38%

    434,8883.99%219,151-19.32%

    9595450,1673.51%185,476-15.37%

    414,594-4.67%205,996-6.00%

    9797379,290-15.74%220,64618.96%

    388,298-13.74%224,72821.16%

    80136,23352.25%--

    81254,91287.11%17,000-

    82223,708-12.24%24,00041.18%

    83215,002-3.89%32,06133.59%

    84145,687-32.24%45,18140.92%

    85102,992-29.31%66,77747.80%

    86129,60425.84%80,47820.52%

    8785,127-34.32%104,64530.03%

    8856,608-33.50%151,68544.95%

    8944,880-20.72%194,79528.42%

    9024,389-45.66%247,13126.87%

    9138,63558.41%297,65120.44%

    9264,34166.54%306,4952.97%

    93110,98172.49%271,614-11.38%

    121,652214.88%219,151-26.37%

    95116,166-4.51%185,476-15.37%

    106,108-12.78%205,996-6.00%

    9770,388-39.41%220,64618.96%

    51,180-55.94%224,72821.16%

  • 8098

    Chart1

    31743417000

    37172024000

    46257732061

    49188445181

    50874866777

    46656880478

    385969104645

    385074151685

    321165194795

    259494247131

    320285297651

    349706306495

    418187271614

    434888219151

    450167185476

    414594205996

    379290220646

    80289,503---

    81317,4349.65%17,000-

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    83462,57724.44%32,06133.59%

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    85508,7483.43%66,77747.80%

    86466,568-8.29%80,47820.52%

    87385,969-17.27%104,64530.03%

    88385,074-0.23%151,68544.95%

    89321,165-16.60%194,79528.42%

    90259,494-19.20%247,13126.87%

    91320,28523.43%297,65120.44%

    92349,7069.19%306,4952.97%

    93418,18719.58%271,614-11.38%

    434,8883.99%219,151-19.32%

    95450,1673.51%185,476-15.37%

    414,594-4.67%205,996-6.00%

    379,290-15.74%220,64618.96%

    &C&"Times New Roman,"&P

    80136,23352.25%--

    81254,91287.11%17,000-

    82223,708-12.24%24,00041.18%

    83215,002-3.89%32,06133.59%

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    86129,60425.84%80,47820.52%

    8785,127-34.32%104,64530.03%

    8856,608-33.50%151,68544.95%

    8944,880-20.72%194,79528.42%

    9024,389-45.66%247,13126.87%

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    9264,34166.54%306,4952.97%

    93110,98172.49%271,614-11.38%

    121,652214.88%219,151-26.37%

    95116,166-4.51%185,476-15.37%

    106,108-12.78%205,996-6.00%

    70,388-39.41%220,64618.96%

    &C&"Times New Roman,"&P

  • 2009Q32009Q4

  • ?

  • ?

  • 2010?

  • X:Y:1.xy3.251 2.xy3.251

  • 3. 1.10RC0.4 4625 2.251+30 32.5 3.30 xy0.4130 xy3.251

  • 46

  • 55

  • 1501.30.415.39 2801.30.424.62 31001.30.430.77 1151.30.55.77 2201.30.57.69

  • Y=[(X/a)(1c)]/1b Y X a b c(X/a)

  • 1VULW2M1BM23MOUECFA4M5CEPA

  • 1/3621/33/GDP40412055 GDP630720891015

  • 123 U210

  • 3 44.3445.94 28.0330.03

  • 456

  • 1. -98Q31.4131.6466.95 -9718428.2069.972.ECFA3.4.5. -00668822446688-6.7.-8.-9.10.-

  • 12