2009 station boulevard trolley service plan - aurora-il.org

Phase I Report

STATION BOULEVARD SHUTTLE

Prepared for:

City of Aurora

May 2009

City of Aurora Station Boulevard Shuttle: Phase I Report

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Table of Contents 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 1

2. Existing Service ...................................................................................................................... 1

3. Survey ..................................................................................................................................... 2

4. Preliminary Cost Estimates ..................................................................................................... 6

Option 1A: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York .......................................... 10

Option 1B: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York and Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall........................................................................................................ 15

Option 1C: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York, No Additional Residents . 18

Option 1D: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York, No Additional Residents and No Increase in Assessment................................................................................................. 19

Option 2A: Service Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall ............................................... 22

Option 2B: Optional Saturday Service for Service Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall................................................................................................................................................... 25

5. Next Steps ............................................................................................................................. 26

List of Tables

Table 3-1: Estimate of Units Sold Annually ................................................................................... 5

Table 3-2: Estimated Shuttle Ridership .......................................................................................... 5

Table 4-1: Express Trains - Schedule and Ridership ...................................................................... 7

Table 4-2: Estimated Annual Cost - Option 1A Service Terminating at Plaza on New York ..... 10

Table 4-3: Cost Estimates with Service Terminating at Plaza on New York ............................... 12

Table 4-4: Budget Analysis for Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York, No Increase in Assessment ......................................................................................................... 13

Table 4-5: Budget Analysis for Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York ............... 13

Table 4-6: Estimated Annual Cost - Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall ................. 15

Table 4-7: Budget Analysis for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York with Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall .................................................................................. 17

Table 4-8: Budget Analysis for No Growth in Residents for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York .............................................................................................................................. 18

Table 4-9: Express Trains Served - No Increase in Assessment .................................................. 19

Table 4-10: Estimated Annual Cost - No Growth in Residents or Assessments for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York ...................................................................................... 19

Table 4-11: Budget Analysis for No Growth in Assessments or Residents for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York ...................................................................................... 20

Table 4-12: Estimated Annual Costs - Option 2A ........................................................................ 22

Table 4-13: Cost Estimates with Service Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall ................. 24

Table 4-14: Estimated Annual Costs - Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall .............. 25

List of Figures

Figure 4-1: Example of Cutaway Vehicle ...................................................................................... 8

Figure 4-2: Shuttle Route Terminating at Plaza on New York ..................................................... 11

Figure 4-3: Shuttle Route Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall, Saturday Service ............ 16

Figure 4-4: Shuttle Route Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall ......................................... 23


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1. INTRODUCTION The City of Aurora has engaged S. B. Friedman & Company (“SBFCo”) and TranSystems to prepare a plan for the design, implementation and operation of a shuttle system serving the Station Boulevard corridor immediately west of Route 59, linking residents and commuters to the Route 59 Metra commuter rail station. This report represents the conclusion of Phase I of the study, the goals of which are outlined below:

� Estimate the demand for shuttle service from the three residential developments along Station Boulevard. These include Lehigh Station, Plaza on New York and Kensington Station North and South;

� Analyze financial feasibility of the shuttle system with revenues from monthly residential passes funded through homeowner association assessments and, if necessary, other daily fares from riders coming from or going to the nearby Westfield Fox Valley Mall; and

� Prepare a final report and present the recommendations and conclusions arising from

this phase of work. 2. EXISTING SERVICE The Route 59 Metra station opened in 1989 and quickly became the highest ridership station along the Metra/BNSF line. Average daily ridership at this station is approximately 5,9431. The station has 4,214 parking spaces, of which approximately 2,400 are located on the Aurora side. These spaces fill up quickly, and often times there are no spaces available after 7am. An additional 243 off-site parking spaces have been made available in parking lots owned by Westell, the AAA Chicago Motor Club, and Westfield Fox Valley Mall (WFVM). Metra currently has no plans to modify BNSF service or to expand the parking lot at the station. The station currently is served by four Pace routes:

� Route 534 Fox Valley Villages – Rush hour only service that begins at Waterford and Montgomery and serves a park-and-ride at WFVM. Average daily ridership is 77.

� Route 535 Fox Valley Shuttle – Service from 6:45am to 9:43pm that operates along Route 59 from WFVM. Average daily ridership is 69.

� Route 673 Fort Hills Express – Rush hour only service that operates express from a

park-and-ride lot at Community Christian Church near the intersection of Ogden Avenue and Rickert Drive. Average daily ridership is 194.

1 Metra 2006 Ridership Survey, Oct 4-11, 2006.


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� Route 675 Route 59 Express – Rush hour only service that operates express from a park-and-ride lot at Wheatland Salem Church near the intersection of 95th Street and Book Road. Average daily ridership is 148.

Pace has identified Route 59 as an Arterial Rapid Transit Corridor, making it eligible for new, limited-stop transit service along with enhanced passenger amenities. However, there is no timeframe for implementation of this proposed service. Pace has no plans to modify service to the existing routes serving the station. The strong desire of Aurora residents to board Metra service at the Route 59 Metra station is illustrated by the lack of parking at the station and the three park-and-ride lots serving the station. Given the requirement of the Homeowners Associations governing the Lehigh Station, Plaza on New York and Kensington Station North and South developments to set aside monthly dues for residents of these communities to fund a transit service to the Route 59 Metra station, a survey was undertaken to gauge the demand for a trolley-style transit service for current residents in the aforementioned developments. From this survey, conservative projections were made to estimate the population increase within these three communities over time in order to determine whether likely demand (coupled with the financial resources of the monthly transit service assessment) would enable a private trolley to be put in place on a self-sustaining basis. The following sections of the report delineate: a) the process used to conduct a “ridership demand” survey; b) the findings from residents’ responses and the financial analysis; and c) ultimate recommendations as to next steps to establish a private transit service linking the three developments to the Route 59 Metra station.

3. SURVEY Methodology In order to gauge interest in the proposed shuttle service to the Route 59 Metra station, two surveys were designed to provide current residents of Lehigh Station and Plaza on New York with the opportunity to express their thoughts and expectations. As of spring 2008, when the surveys were conducted, the Kensington development had not begun construction. The first survey was a short, seven-question direct mail survey. This survey directed respondents to a second, more detailed internet survey that was placed on the City’s website. Copies of both surveys are contained in Appendix A. The short surveys were mailed to approximately 350 households in the Lehigh Station and Plaza on New York developments. Some respondents only utilized the direct mail survey, others only the internet survey, and others responded to both. 62 short surveys were returned and 41 internet surveys completed. Of the 103 surveys, there were responses from 97 unique addresses for a high response rate of approximately 28 percent. The analysis in the following section is for unique responses only, unless otherwise noted.


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Survey Response & Analysis Metra Service Survey respondents were asked how many people in their household currently ride Metra. Responses were evenly split between one and two people, at 45% each. A majority (66%) responded that they ride Metra five days a week. The next most frequent response was four days per week (12%). Only three respondents (3%) stated that they do not ride Metra and have no plans to begin riding Metra. The current potential market for service to Route 59 Metra Station is approximately 120 residents2.

Weekday Metra Service. Internet survey respondents were asked which weekday train departure from Route 59 Metra station they typically ride. Twenty-eight percent (28%) responded 7:17am, 17% responded 7:52am, 11% responded 6:57am, and 11% responded 6:37am. All of these departure times are for express trains. None of the respondents selected a local train prior to 8:28am, which is the departure time of the last express train. In the afternoon, the 5:00pm departure from Union Station to Aurora was the most frequent response at 30%, followed by the 5:22pm and 5:45pm departures. All of these are express trains as well. None of the respondents indicated they typically rode a train departing prior to 4:28pm, and only one respondent indicated that they rode a non-express train. Fifty percent (50%) of respondents stated that the availability of parking at the Route 59 Metra Station affects which train they decide to ride. Another 25% responded that the availability of parking intermittently affects which train they decide to ride during the work week. Twenty-five percent (25%) responded that availability of parking did not at all affect their decision about which train to take. If parking obstacles were removed, internet survey respondents would prefer to ride trains departing later than the ones they typically ride. Survey respondents were also asked how much more often they would ride Metra on a weekly basis if shuttle service is offered. Twenty-six percent (26%) of people responded, with 50% indicating that they would ride Metra an additional day. Thirty-one percent (31%) indicated they would ride three or more additional days. Weekend Metra Service. The internet survey asked residents about use of weekend Metra service. Fifty-six percent (56%) of the respondents to this question stated they utilize weekend Metra service once a month or more. Forty-one percent (41%) of respondents typically ride the Saturday express train that departs from the Route 59 Metra Station at 9:30am. Fifty-six percent (56%) of respondents typically ride the express train that departs Union Station at 5:25pm on Saturdays. On Sundays, 48% of

2 The potential market for service to Route 59 Metra Station was estimated by summing the number of people that currently ride Metra for each unique address. The mailer survey allowed for responses from one, two, and three or more people currently riding Metra, while the Internet survey allowed for responses of zero, one, two, three, four or more. Many surveys indicated that two people from the same home currently ride Metra, resulting in a potential market greater than the number of unique survey responses.


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respondents typically ride the 10:28am departure from Route 59 Metra Station and 55% of respondents typically ride the 6:30pm departure from Union Station.

Shuttle Attributes & Service Survey respondents were asked to rate attributes of the shuttle service. These attributes are typically important in the service design of commuter rail feeder service. Respondents were shown two types of vehicles: a replica trolley and a small vehicle painted like a trolley (see Appendix A). Respondents indicated that the type of vehicle was inconsequential to service features. Respondents were asked questions about trolley connections to Metra. Factors given the highest importance for a trolley service were the ability: 1) to meet express trains and 2) to minimize the time between the awaiting of shuttle service and arrival at the Route 59 Metra station ahead of boarding the desired train. Westfield Fox Valley Mall Survey respondents were asked how often they travel to WFVM. Fifty-eight percent (58%) of those responding to this question indicated they travel to the mall once per week. Since responses were split almost equally on whether survey respondents would use shuttle service to the mall, the potential market appears to be approximately 20 people. Of the 20 people that answered a question concerning how often they anticipated using shuttle service to the mall if offered, 50% indicated they would use the shuttle two days per week. Sixty-three percent (63%) of respondents indicated that they would be most likely to travel to the mall on Saturdays. Seventy percent (70%) of respondents are most likely to use the shuttle service in the afternoon to travel to the mall. Ridership Projections for Shuttle Service In order to reach an estimate of potential ridership growth for future use of a trolley service, an absorption analysis was conducted to approximate the number of units that would be sold each year. Local developments surveyed in March 2008 included Lehigh Station and Plaza on New York. Responses helped determine how many units were being sold each month as an indicator of future sales pace. Our analysis yielded an average absorption rate of approximately 3.2 units per month for condominiums, and 3.76 units per month for townhomes and single-family homes for each development. Table 3-1 illustrates the projected sales pace for each development. At the time the local developments were interviewed, the housing market had already experienced a significant downturn. In addition, the housing market tends to fluctuate over time, with varying rates of absorption. Therefore, SBFCo believes its assumptions regarding absorption rates to be conservative.


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Table 3-1: Estimate of Units Sold Annually Lehigh Station

Townhome Condo Townhome Condo Townhome TownhomeSingle Family

Through March 2008* 264 16 64 0 0 0 0 344 344

Apr 08 - Dec 08 0 29 34 0 0 0 0 63 4072009 0 38 45 0 0 0 0 83 4902010 0 38 11 0 0 0 0 49 5392011 0 38 0 38 45 0 0 121 6602012 0 38 0 38 45 38 19 178 8382013 0 38 0 38 45 8 0 129 9672014 0 38 0 38 9 0 0 85 1,0522015 0 38 0 38 0 0 0 76 1,1282016 0 33 0 30 0 0 0 63 1,191Total 264 344 154 220 144 46 19 1,191

Cumulative Units SoldTotal

Plaza on New York Kensington North Kensington South

*Actual sales. Source: S. B. Friedman & Company Although the construction timeline for the Kensington North and South projects has not yet been determined, we have assumed that Kensington North would first start construction in 2010 with the initial set of units being purchased in 2011, and Kensington South would start construction in 2011 with units first being sold in 2012. Estimated weekday ridership to the Route 59 Metra station can be estimated by multiplying the number of sold units by the estimated riders per unit. Estimated riders per unit were determined by dividing the estimated ridership from the survey (120) by the current number of units sold at the time of the survey (344). This results in approximately 0.35 riders per unit. The number of estimated riders is shown in Table 3-2. Table 3-2: Estimated Shuttle Ridership

Cumulative Units Sold

Riders per Unit

Estimated Ridership

2008 407 0.35 1422009 490 0.35 1722010 539 0.35 1892011 660 0.35 2312012 838 0.35 2932013 967 0.35 3382014 1,052 0.35 3682015 1,128 0.35 3952016 1,191 0.35 417

Source: S. B. Friedman & Company, TranSystems


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Findings and Recommendations Based on Survey Analysis Currently, there is a strong market for service to the Route 59 Metra Station with a projected ridership of approximately 120 people. Survey results indicate that there are concentrated times when shuttle service to the Metra station would be needed. The market for service to WFVM is weaker, as fewer people expressed interest and there is less clarity on desired times and days for service to the mall. After reviewing the survey results, TranSystems and SBFCo recommend the following guidelines for shuttle service:

� Initial service levels should be closely aligned with express trains.

� A vehicle capable of seating at least 20 passengers should be utilized. The type of vehicle is unimportant, as indicated by survey respondents.

� Service to or from WFVM is not necessary in the initial service design. However,

further analysis should be undertaken to determine whether there is an opportunity for adding shuttle service from the mall to the Route 59 Metra Station in order to complement the existing park-and-ride as a means to reduce demand on the surface lot surrounding the station and the resulting traffic congestion along Route 59.

4. PRELIMINARY COST ESTIMATES Methodology The cost estimates in this section apply to shuttle service for meeting express trains only, as this was the level of service most requested by survey respondents. In order to develop a cost estimate, the hours of operation for the proposed shuttle service need to be determined. There are several elements that affect the number of vehicle hours, including:

� Travel time from one end of the route to the other � Frequency of service � Number of vehicles necessary to meet demand � Lower operating speeds resulting from congestion

Once established, the number of vehicle hours is then multiplied by an estimated cost per hour to produce the total cost estimate. For this preliminary estimate, current travel times were used during the afternoon rush hour, when the shuttle is likely to encounter the heaviest traffic. Should a future reconfiguration of the Route 59 Metra station parking lot enable better ingress and egress traffic flows, delays will be minimized, and the cost to operate the service may be reduced by minimizing the number of vehicle service hours.


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This cost estimate will be refined after service planning is completed. At that time, the preferred routing, exact stop locations, travel times during the morning rush hour and operational improvements will be factored into the cost estimate. Based on recent bids from private providers in the area, the cost per hour is estimated to range from $60 to $90 depending on who provides the vehicles and the type of vehicles used. With fluctuating fuel costs, potential operators may require fuel surcharges, which are not included in these estimates. Service Delivery As stated previously, residents indicated in the survey that initial service levels must closely align with express trains. Since most survey respondents ride express trains, they strongly support using a shuttle that meets express trains. Based on the input received from the resident survey data, TranSystems recommends that initial service levels be structured to connect with the express trains as outlined in Table 4-1. Table 4-1: Express Trains - Schedule and Ridership

Morning Departures From Route 59 Station

Number of Survey

Respondents Preferring Train

Evening Arrivals At Route 59

Station

Number of Survey


5:57am 6 4:41pm 36:17am 3 5:18pm 46:37am 3 5:40pm 286:57am 16 6:03pm 237:17am 23 6:25pm 187:32am 14 6:52pm 57:52am 16 7:33pm 48:16am 11Total 92 Total 85

Source: TranSystems Based on the results from the surveys, two primary routing options were explored when estimating cost:

� Option 1: Service terminating at the Plaza on New York. � Option 2: Service terminating at the WFVM park-and-ride lot.

An additional estimate to provide Saturday service to WFVM is also provided. Survey analysis showed that a vehicle capable of seating 20 passengers would be sufficient at the start of service. A replica trolley can seat 20 passengers and hold an additional 10 standees. Trolley replica vehicles cost between $140,000 and $180,000 depending on options. The lead time required to purchase these vehicles is approximately nine months. However, since survey


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respondents indicated that the type of vehicle is unimportant, another option may be to use cutaway vehicles as shown in Figure 4-1. These vehicles are often used for shuttle services and typically seat 21 passengers and hold an additional 8-10 standees. Cutaway vehicles cost between $60,000 and $70,000. Since cutaways are significantly less expensive than other vehicles with similar capacity, more readily available, and easier and less expensive to maintain, the consultant team recommends these vehicles for initial start-up. Figure 4-1: Example of Cutaway Vehicle

Vehicle Provision Because shuttle service must meet express trains and deal with congestion, two vehicles will be needed to operate the service. There are two options for how vehicles are provided for the service:

� A third party (e.g., homeowners’ association, City) purchases vehicles and provides them to the service provider.

� An independent operator could provide vehicles and service. If the service provider supplies the vehicles, the third party can avoid upfront capital costs. Even if the homeowners’ association decided it preferred to finance vehicle acquisition, any financing would likely come at a high interest rate given the current credit market and the nature of the association. Also, service could start sooner, especially if the provider uses cutaways since most private operators already own these vehicles. Using vehicles owned by the service provider would also allow the third party to switch easily to a larger vehicle as ridership grows. For these reasons, it is recommended the vehicle for shuttle service be provided by an independent operator. When the service is put out to bid, brand new vehicles should be required in the service package to be negotiated with a provider. It is not unusual for the client to specify that all vehicles must be manufactured after a certain date in its RFP. It is also possible to


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indicate certain vehicle characteristics, such as color and logos, which must be included with the vehicle. In addition, using contractor-provided vehicles prevents the homeowners’ associations from having to deal with additional administrative procedures and high costs related to maintenance and insurance. It would also allow the vehicle to be changed or updated more readily. If the homeowners own the vehicle, they would have to purchase another vehicle and sell the current vehicle, in addition to the time delay in waiting for a new vehicle to arrive.

Service Options Cost estimates for the two routing options are on the remaining pages of this report. Though they both service the three residential developments along Station Boulevard, they are generally grouped into the following two categories:

� Option 1 alternatives operate between the Plaza on New York and the Route 59 Metra Station and

� Option 2 alternatives operate between Westfield Fox Valley Mall and the Route 59 Metra Station.

Definitions of terms used in the cost estimate are as follows:

• Service Hours: The time during the day that service is available to residents. • Estimated Vehicles Hours: The total number of hours that vehicles operate during

service hours. For this estimate, estimated vehicle hours do not equal service hours since more than one vehicle is operating during service hours. Estimated vehicle hours do not include travel time to/from a garage since it is impossible to know exactly where the vehicles will be garaged. A higher cost per hour will be used to estimate the cost to account for this unknown variable. Estimated vehicle hours are also the key component that a third party will use to purchase service from a private provider.

• Cost per Hour: How much it costs to operate the service. This hourly rate includes driver labor, maintenance expenses, fuel, oil, parts, and insurance. Depending on which party provides vehicles, it can also include vehicles and depreciation.

• Estimated Daily Cost: The total estimated vehicle hours multiplied by the cost per hour. The shuttle should operate any day that Metra operates a weekday schedule since people need to get to work.

• Estimated Annual Cost: The estimated daily cost multiplied by 255 weekdays (365 days minus 52 Saturdays, minus 52 Sundays, minus the six major holidays per year that Metra operates a Sunday schedule).


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Option 1A: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York All alternatives listed under the Option 1 detail service between Route 59 Metra station and Plaza on New York. For Option 1A, the shuttle would operate between the Plaza on New York and Route 59 Metra station only on weekdays, excluding holidays. Cost estimates are shown in Table 4-2 on the following page and are offered for the operation options provided by private transit service to meet the ideal level of service stated in the previous section (the assumptions on which these estimates are based follow the table). Table 4-2: Estimated Annual Cost - Option 1A Service Terminating at Plaza on New York

Cost Private contractor provides cutaways

($75 per hour)

Private contractor provides trolleys ($90 per hour)

Daily (Estimated Vehicle Hours x Cost per Hour)

$490 $590

Annual (Daily Cost X 255 Weekdays)

$124,950 $150,450

Service Assumptions Routing (See Figure 4-2 on following page for map)

Morning: Gabrielle Lane – Station Boulevard – Liberty Street – North Commons Drive – Meridian Parkway – Meridian Lake Drive – Route 59 Metra Station – Meridian Lake Drive – Meridian Parkway – North Commons Drive – Gabrielle Lane Afternoon: Route 59 Metra Station - Meridian Lake Drive – Meridian Parkway – North Commons Drive – Liberty Street – Station Boulevard – Gabrielle Lane – North Commons Drive – Meridian Parkway – Meridian Lake Drive – Route 59 Metra Station

This routing assumes that the final proposed segment of Station Boulevard north of Liberty Street will not be completed prior to start-up of shuttle service. Once Station Boulevard is completed, the one-way distance will be reduced by a half mile, reducing running time by approximately two minutes. While a reduction in running time may not reduce the cost, it would improve reliability.


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Service Hours Morning: 5:45am – 8:10am Evening: 4:45pm – 7:50pm

Vehicles

Morning: One vehicle. Capacity to carry 240 passengers (160 seated plus 80 standees)3 Evening: Two vehicles. Capacity to carry 210 passengers (140 seated plus 70 standees)4

Estimated Vehicle Hours

Morning: 2.5 hours Evening: 4.0 hours Total: 6.5 hours

Figure 4-2: Shuttle Route Terminating at Plaza on New York

Note: Loop operates counter-clockwise in morning, and clockwise in the afternoon. Strengths

• Most of the ridership would likely be generated by the residents paying a monthly shuttle assessment and may view this option as a dedicated service that is not open to the public.

3 8 trips times 20 seats equals 160 seated / 8 trips times 10 standees equals 80 standees. 4 7 trips times 20 seats equals 140 seated / 7 trips times 10 standees equals 70 standees.


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Projected Costs As ridership grows with unit sales, shuttle service will need to be expanded. Some assumptions were made when estimating the annual cost:

• The same trains being served at startup will continue to receive service. No additional trains will be served. However, some trains may have more shuttles serving them than others as service is expanded. Since additional service will be added to the trains as needed, the vehicle hours increase gradually.

• Costs per hour will increase by four percent annually. Based on these assumptions, shuttle service costs were projected through 2016 when all three residential developments are expected to be built out. Projections are shown in Table 4-3. Greater vehicle hours than the prior year indicate that additional shuttle service has been added. Table 4-3: Cost Estimates with Service Terminating at Plaza on New York

Year Capacity*Estimated Ridership

Vehicle Hours

Cost per Hour

Daily CostEst. Annual

CostCost per

HourDaily Cost

Est. Annual Cost

Cost per Hour


Cost2008 210 142 6.50 $60 $390 $99,000 $75 $490 $125,000 $90 $590 $150,0002009 210 172 6.50 $62 $410 $105,000 $78 $510 $130,000 $94 $610 $156,0002010 210 189 6.50 $65 $420 $107,000 $81 $530 $135,000 $97 $630 $161,0002011 270 231 8.00 $67 $540 $138,000 $84 $670 $171,000 $101 $810 $207,0002012 330 293 9.50 $70 $670 $171,000 $88 $830 $212,000 $105 $1,000 $255,0002013 330 338 9.50 $73 $690 $176,000 $91 $870 $222,000 $109 $1,040 $265,0002014 390 368 11.00 $76 $840 $214,000 $95 $1,040 $265,000 $114 $1,250 $319,0002015 450 395 13.00 $79 $1,030 $263,000 $99 $1,280 $326,000 $118 $1,540 $393,0002016 450 417 13.00 $82 $1,070 $273,000 $103 $1,330 $339,000 $123 $1,600 $408,000

Third Party Owns Vehicle Operator Provided Cutaway Operator Provided Trolley

* Assumes a vehicle with 20 seats and room for 10 standees; cost per hour is assumed to increase four percent annually; shaded areas represent years when an additional shuttle is added. Source: S. B. Friedman & Company, TranSystems Preliminary Budget Analysis Since the residents expressed no preference for a specific type of vehicle, the budget analysis for Option 1A was focused on a cutaway vehicle owned by the service provider. Also, because the WVFM park-and-ride lot is already served by Pace bus service, budget analyses were only completed for scenarios that fall under Option 1, with weekday service operating between the Route 59 Metra Station and Plaza on New York. It would be possible to provide the ideal level of shuttle service as identified in the surveys at the current monthly assessment of $20 per residential unit provided that the current homeowners’ associations agreed to make use of the assessments that have been collected to date, which total approximately $100,000. As indicated in Table 4-4, the desired level of service could be funded at the current assessment levels along with a portion of the currently accumulated capital surplus for approximately the first five years of trolley service. After that point, the monthly assessment would need to be increased to $22 in 2014 and then $25 in 2015 in order to maintain this level of service (as noted in Table 4-4 and Table 4-5).


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Table 4-4: Budget Analysis for Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York, No Increase in Assessment

Year Cumulative Units Sold

Current Monthly

AssessmentTotal

Revenue Total CostSurplus/ (Deficit)

2009 490 $20 $108,000 $130,050 ($22,050)2010 539 $20 $125,000 $135,150 ($10,150)2011 661 $20 $145,000 $170,850 ($25,850)2012 848 $20 $184,000 $211,650 ($27,650)2013 970 $20 $219,000 $221,850 ($2,850)2014 1056 $20 $245,000 $265,200 ($20,200)2015 1132 $20 $263,000 $326,400 ($63,400)2016 1191 $20 $281,000 $339,150 ($58,150)2017 1191 $20 $286,000 $352,716 ($66,716)

Alternately, the association dues could be immediately adjusted to $24 per unit per month to fully fund the desired trolley service as shown in Table 4-5. With an assessment of $24 per unit, shuttle service would accrue a slight surplus for the first five years. This annual surplus could be held as contingent funds to handle unanticipated costs and then, if all or a portion of the contingent funds are unspent at year’s end, be refunded to homeowners or used to reduce assessments in the following year. Under this scenario, the approximately $100,000 in assessments that have accumulated as of October 2008 could then be used for start-up costs such as way-finding signage, decorative trolley stops and/or to cover any unexpected surcharges such as fuel. Table 4-5: Budget Analysis for Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York

Year Cumulative Units Sold

Required Monthly

Assessment per Unit

Total Revenue

Total Operating

CostSurplus/ (Deficit)

2009 490 $24 $130,000 $130,000 $02010 539 $24 $150,000 $135,000 $15,0002011 661 $24 $174,000 $171,000 $3,0002012 848 $24 $221,000 $212,000 $9,0002013 970 $24 $263,000 $222,000 $41,0002014 1056 $24 $294,000 $265,000 $29,0002015 1132 $25 $329,000 $326,000 $3,0002016 1191 $25 $351,000 $339,000 $12,0002017 1191 $25 $357,000 $353,000 $4,000

Source S. B. Friedman & Company, TranSystems


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In our analysis of the cost to achieve desired levels of service, we have excluded the option of the homeowners’ associations directly purchasing the trolley buses required. It is not recommended that the homeowners association own the vehicle(s) used to operate the shuttle for the following reasons:

• Previous experience with transit start-ups has shown that insurance can be difficult to obtain or very expensive. When applying for insurance, the association will have to indicate that a dedicated, appropriately licensed driver is available; a designated parking space for the vehicle(s) will be provided; and the vehicle will not be used for any other purpose.

• A spare vehicle should be owned so that service would not be interrupted if the primary vehicle breaks down and it has to be in the shop for an extended period of time or if it needed maintenance that would make it unavailable for some of the scheduled service.

• If ridership increases past the capacity of the vehicle, additional vehicles will need to be purchased. The annual cost to purchase a cutaway vehicle is approximately $17,000.

• The association would be responsible for maintenance. They would have to identify a qualified mechanic and a designated representative of the association would have to take the vehicle to the mechanic for preventative maintenance or repairs. The association would also be responsible for cleaning the exterior and interior of the vehicle.

Entering into a contractual relationship with a third-party provider on a fully “turn-key” basis is a way to overcome all of these issues. A “turn-key” contract obligates the provider to assume all costs for capital equipment, including maintenance and insurance. Our estimates for the hourly charge for the trolley service above and in Table 4-2 through Table 4-5 assume a “turn-key” contract. If ownership of the vehicles is desired, it can be more fully investigated in the next phase of the study. However, it should be noted that the cost of purchasing a primary and back-up trolley bus will deplete most of the associations’ current aggregate reserves. This analysis shows that the homeowners’ assessment does not need to be pegged to the Metra parking permit fees, which were recently increased to $40 each month. Lastly, once the residential projects reach stabilization, monthly assessments should be expected to increase at approximately four percent annually to keep pace with cost increases.


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Option 1B: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York and Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall Option 1B provides the same weekday service as Option 1A, with the addition of Saturday service that would run between the Route 59 Metra station and WFVM. A single bus would circulate from 9:00am – 6:30pm. The cost estimates are shown in Table 4-6, with the assumptions for service following the table. Table 4-6: Estimated Annual Cost - Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall

CostThird party

purchases vehicles ($60 per hour)

Private contractor provides cutaways

($75 per hour)

Private contractor provides trolleys

($90 per hour)

Daily (Estimated Vehicle Hours x

Cost per Hour)$250 $750 $900

Annual (Daily Cost X 255

Weekdays)$13,000 $39,000 $46,800

Source: TranSystems Routing (See Figure 4-2 on the following page for map)

Route 59 Metra Station - Meridian Lake Drive – Meridian Parkway – North Commons Drive – Liberty Street – Station Boulevard – Gabrielle Lane – North Commons Drive – McCoy Drive – Merriam Drive - Fox Valley Center Drive – turn around at WFVM

Service Hours 9:00am – 6:30pm Vehicles

One vehicle Estimated Vehicle Hours

10 hours


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Figure 4-3: Shuttle Route Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall, Saturday Service

The preliminary budget analysis to provide additional Saturday service is shown in Table 4-7. If the shuttle were funded by monthly assessments from the three residential developments alone, there would need to be an increase in the monthly assessment to $33 in the first year to break even. In the following years, an assessment of $31 would be sufficient to cover costs. These are both still less than the new Metra parking permit fee. Another option would be to contact WFVM to inquire whether they would be willing to partially fund the shuttle operation for Saturday service.


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Table 4-7: Budget Analysis for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York with Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall

YearCumulative Units Sold

Required Monthly

Assessment per Unit

Total Revenue

Total Operating


2009 490 $33 $179,000 $179,000 $02010 539 $31 $194,000 $185,000 $9,0002011 661 $31 $225,000 $224,000 $1,0002012 848 $31 $286,000 $267,000 $19,0002013 970 $31 $340,000 $279,000 $61,0002014 1056 $31 $379,000 $324,000 $55,0002015 1132 $31 $408,000 $387,000 $21,0002016 1191 $31 $436,000 $403,000 $33,0002017 1191 $31 $443,000 $419,000 $24,000



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Option 1C: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York, No Additional Residents Option 1C assumes only weekday service and no increase in the number of residents. Therefore, the number of units occupied would be approximately 407. If the number of residents stayed the same, in order to maintain the same level of service, assessments would have to be raised to $27 per month in the first year and continue to be raised as shown in n. Table 4-8. Table 4-8 also indicates the shuttle service is not expected to run at a deficit. Although the assessment would be higher than the current rate of $20, even in 2016, the required assessment would not exceed the current $40 monthly fee for parking at the Route 59 Metra Station. Table 4-8: Budget Analysis for No Growth in Residents for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York


Required Monthly

Assessment per Unit

Total Revenue

Total Operating


2009 407 $27 $132,000 $130,000 $2,0002010 407 $28 $137,000 $135,000 $2,0002011 407 $29 $142,000 $140,000 $2,0002012 407 $30 $147,000 $146,000 $1,0002013 407 $32 $156,000 $152,000 $4,0002014 407 $33 $161,000 $158,000 $3,0002015 407 $34 $166,000 $164,000 $2,0002016 407 $36 $176,000 $171,000 $5,000



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Option 1D: Weekday Service Terminating at Plaza on New York, No Additional Residents and No Increase in Assessment Option 1D assumes only weekday service, in addition to no additional residents and no increase in the monthly assessment. In this scenario, the total annual revenue generated by the monthly assessment from the homeowner associations is $98,000. This is less than the estimated cost for service originating from Plaza on New York ($130,000 for private contractor provided cutaways). Therefore, service must be adjusted so that the estimated cost will be equal to or less than the estimated annual revenue. It is recommended that only the trains preferred by the largest number of survey respondents be served by the shuttle, as shown in Table 4-9. Table 4-9: Express Trains Served - No Increase in Assessment

Morning Departures From Route 59 Station

Number of Survey


Evening Arrivals At Route 59

Station

Number of Survey


6:57am 16 5:18pm 47:17am 23 5:40pm 287:32am 14 6:03pm 237:52am 16 6:25pm 188:16am 11 6:52pm 5Total 80 Total 78

Source: TranSystems Cost estimates for Option 1D, which reflect reduced service, are shown in Table 4-10 on the following page. The assumptions on which these costs are based follow the table. The budget analysis through the year 2016 is shown in Table 4-11 on page 18. Table 4-10: Estimated Annual Cost - No Growth in Residents or Assessments for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York

CostThirdy Party

Purchases Vehicles * ($60 per Hour)

Private Contractor Provides Cutaways

($75 per Hour)

Private Contractor Provides Trolleys

($90 per Hour)

Daily (Estimated Vehicle Hours x Cost

per Hour)$250 $320 $380

Annual (Daily Cost x 255 Weekdays)

$63,750 $81,600 $96,900

* Cost to acquire, maintain, and insure vehicles could add a minimum of an additional $20,000 per year. Source: TranSystems


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Service Assumptions Service Hours

Morning: 6:45am – 8:10am Evening: 5:18pm – 7:10pm

Vehicles

Morning: One vehicle. Capacity to carry 150 passengers (100 seated plus 50 standees) Evening: Two vehicles. Capacity to carry 150 passengers (100 seated plus 50 standees)

Estimated Vehicle Hours Morning: 1.5 hours Evening: 2.7 hours Total: 4.2 hours

Table 4-11: Budget Analysis for No Growth in Assessments or Residents for Service Terminating at Plaza on New York


Required Monthly

Assessment per Unit

Total Revenue

Total Operating

Cost

Surplus/ (Deficit)

20082009 407 $20 $98,000 $82,000 $16,0002010 407 $20 $98,000 $85,000 $13,0002011 407 $20 $98,000 $88,000 $10,0002012 407 $20 $98,000 $92,000 $6,0002013 407 $20 $98,000 $96,000 $2,0002014 407 $20 $98,000 $100,000 ($2,000)2015 407 $20 $98,000 $104,000 ($6,000)2016 407 $20 $98,000 $108,000 ($10,000)

Source: S. B. Friedman & Company, TranSystems Other Considerations:

• While the estimated annual cost is less than estimated total revenue for the first five years of operation, the recommended service levels should be adhered to for the following reasons:

o The initial surplus can be used to pay for service in future years.

o If additional trains were served, service would have to be reduced in future years. Commuters do not like having their travel options reduced.


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o Service to the trains that are no longer included in the shuttle service is expensive. Since there is more time between these trains, the shuttle is mostly sitting and waiting to start its trip.

• There appears to be sufficient capacity to serve the existing demand for shuttle service. However, the shuttle will be crowded for the trips serving the 7:17am departure and 5:40pm arrival. This would be a reduction of 2.3 hours of service compared to Option 1A.

• Another option to reduce the cost of the service is to consider using school buses as the vehicle. Private contractors may provide these at a lower cost per hour than cutaway vehicles. However, commuters typically do not like riding on school buses since they are designed to carry children. Many commuters find the seats to be uncomfortable and the buses cold in the winter and hot in the summer. School buses may be acceptable for this service since most commuters will be on the bus less than 10 minutes.


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Option 2A: Service Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall All alternatives listed under Option 2 detail service between Route 59 Metra station and Plaza on New York. For this particular scenario, cost estimates shown in Table 4-12 are based on the assumptions that follow the table: Table 4-12: Estimated Annual Costs - Option 2A

CostThirdy Party

Purchases Vehicles * ($60 per Hour)

Private Contractor Provides Cutaways

($75 per Hour)

Private Contractor Provides Trolleys

($90 per Hour)

Daily (Estimated Vehicle Hours x Cost

per Hour)$440 $540 $650

Annual (Daily Cost x 255 Weekdays)

$112,200 $137,700 $165,750

* Cost to acquire, maintain, and insure vehicles could add a minimum of an additional $20,000 per year. Source: TranSystems Service Assumptions Routing (See Figure 4-4: Shuttle Route Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall on following page for map)

Morning: Fox Valley Mall Center Drive – Station Boulevard – Liberty Street – North Commons Drive – Meridian Parkway – Meridian Lake Drive – Route 59 Metra Station – Meridian Lake Drive – Meridian Parkway – North Commons Drive – McCoy Drive – Merriam Drive – Fox Valley Center Mall Drive Afternoon: Route 59 Metra Station - Meridian Lake Drive – Meridian Parkway – North Commons Drive – Liberty Street – Station Boulevard – Fox Valley Mall Drive – Merriam Drive – McCoy Drive – North Commons Drive – Meridian Parkway – Meridian Lake Drive – Route 59 Metra Station This routing assumes that the final proposed segment of Station Boulevard north of Liberty Street will not be completed prior to start-up of shuttle service. Once Station Boulevard is completed, the one-way distance will be reduced by a half mile, which will in turn reduce run time by approximately two minutes. While a reduction in run time may not reduce the cost, it would improve reliability.

Service Hours Morning: 5:40am – 8:10am Evening: 4:45pm – 7:50pm


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Vehicles Morning: Two vehicles (most train departures can be met with one vehicle – only the

7:32am departure requires two vehicles). Capacity to carry 240 passengers (160 seated plus 80 standees)5

Evening: Two vehicles. Capacity to carry 210 passengers (140 seated plus 70 standees)6

Figure 4-4: Shuttle Route Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall

Estimated Vehicle Hours

Morning: 3.25 hours Evening: 4.0 hours Total: 7.25 hours

Strengths • Improves service from the park-and-ride lot at WFVM. Additional service from the park-

and-ride lot may increase ridership.

5 8 trips times 20 seats equals 160 seated / 8 trips times 10 standees equals 80 standees. 6 7 trips times 20 seats equals 140 seated / 7 trips times 10 standees equals 70 standees.


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Weaknesses • Increased ridership from the park-and-ride lot at WFVM may force residents of Plaza on

New York and Lehigh Station to stand on crowded shuttles. This may be met with some resistance, since they are the primary funders of the service. Serving the park-and-ride lot may affect reliability due to congestion at WFVM, especially during the holiday season.

Issues

• Pace Route 534 stops at the park-and-ride lot and serves the 7:32am Metra departure. If the shuttle did not operate from the park-and ride-lot for the trip serving the 7:32am departure, the morning service could be provided with one vehicle and the cost would be similar to Option 1A, with service terminating at Plaza on New York. In this scenario, only the park-and-ride lot would not be served by the shuttle, but the shuttle would continue to serve the developments along Station Boulevard for the 7:32am departure.

Projected Costs Shuttle service costs were projected through 2016 (when all three residential developments are expected to be built out) based on the same assumptions for the scenarios in Option 1. Projections are shown below in Table 4-13. Greater vehicle hours than the prior year indicate that additional shuttle service has been added. Because the WFVM park-and-ride lot is already served by Pace bus service, a detailed budget analysis was not completed for the Option 2 scenarios. Table 4-13: Cost Estimates with Service Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall

Year Capacity*Estimated Ridership

Vehicle Hours

Cost per Hour


CostCost per

HourDaily Cost

Est. Annual Cost

Cost per Hour


Cost2008 210 142 7.25 $60 $440 $112,000 $75 $540 $138,000 $90 $650 $166,0002009 210 172 7.25 $62 $450 $115,000 $78 $570 $145,000 $94 $680 $173,0002010 210 189 7.25 $65 $470 $120,000 $81 $590 $150,000 $97 $710 $181,0002011 270 231 9.25 $67 $620 $158,000 $84 $780 $199,000 $101 $940 $240,0002012 330 293 11.25 $70 $790 $201,000 $88 $990 $252,000 $105 $1,180 $301,0002013 390 338 13.25 $73 $970 $247,000 $91 $1,210 $309,000 $109 $1,450 $370,0002014 390 368 13.25 $76 $1,010 $258,000 $95 $1,260 $321,000 $114 $1,510 $385,0002015 450 395 15.50 $79 $1,220 $311,000 $99 $1,530 $390,000 $118 $1,840 $469,0002016 450 417 15.50 $82 $1,270 $324,000 $103 $1,590 $405,000 $123 $1,910 $487,000

Third Party Owns Vehicle Operator Provided Cutaway Operator Provided Trolley

* Assumes a vehicle with 20 seats and room for 10 standees; cost per hour is assumed to increase four percent annually; shaded areas represent years when an additional shuttle is added. Source: S. B. Friedman & Company, TranSystems


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Option 2B: Optional Saturday Service for Service Terminating at Westfield Fox Valley Mall The Saturday service for Option 2 would be the same as that offered in Option 1B. The costs as depicted in Table 4-14 are reiterated on the following page, and service assumptions follow. Table 4-14: Estimated Annual Costs - Saturday Service to Westfield Fox Valley Mall

Cost

Third party purchases vehicles

($60 per hour)

Private contractor provides cutaways

($75 per hour)

Private contractor provides trolleys ($90 per hour)

Daily (Estimated Vehicle Hours x Cost per Hour)

$250 $750 $900

Annual (Daily Cost X 52 Saturdays)

$13,000 $39,000 $46,800

* Cost to acquire, maintain, and insure vehicles could add a minimum of an additional $20,000 per year. Source: TranSystems Service Assumptions Routing (same as Option 2A)

Route 59 Metra Station - Meridian Lake Drive – Meridian Parkway – North Commons Drive – Liberty Street – Station Boulevard – Fox Valley Center Drive – turn around at WFVM

Service Hours 9:00am – 6:30pm Vehicles

One vehicle Estimated Vehicle Hours

10 hours


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5. NEXT STEPS Based on information obtained during Phase I, the following steps for the final phase of this project would be undertaken:

1. Finalize service planning and organizational structure for the oversight of shuttle service

operations, including guidelines for governance by at least two homeowners associations.

2. Identification and delineation of implementation issues for the service governing body to address.

3. Develop an operating plan which addresses implementation issues and establishes the

fundamental policies and procedures for the operation of transit service.

4. Draft request for proposals to identify a contractor for operation of shuttle service. A final report would be prepared for the City and the existing homeowners’ associations at Lehigh Station and Plaza on New York providing direction on how to implement the trolley service. The report would also delineate any options that might be available and the relative “high-level” pros/cons of choosing any particular option of implementation. The final report would in essence be the recommended how-to manual for establishing a trolley service for Station Boulevard.

2009 station boulevard trolley service plan - aurora-il.org

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