2009 commercial gso demand forecast 21 may 2009 kevin reyes director, business development boeing...
TRANSCRIPT
2009 Commercial GSO Demand
Forecast
21 May 2009
Kevin ReyesDirector, Business Development
Boeing Launch [email protected]
Cover art by John Sloan/FAA
2009 Commercial SpaceTransportation Forecasts
FAA Commercial Space Transportation (AST)and the Commercial Space Transportation Advisory Committee (COMSTAC)
May 2009
Federal AviationAdministration
22009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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GSO FORECAST AGENDA
• Forecast Summary
• Working Group
• Market Description
• Methodology
• Forecast Sensitivities
• Demand Forecast
• Launch Forecast
• 2008-2009 Totals Comparison
• Operator Assessments
• Trends
• Summary
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2009 GSO Demand Summary
2009-2018 commercial GSO satellite and launch demand forecast decreased by 1 from 2008
Average 20.8
Average 15.7
42009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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Working Group Members
Gwynne Shotwell SpaceX(2008 & 2009 GSO Forecast Chair)
Kevin Reyes Boeing (2009 GSO Forecast Deputy Chair)
John Sloan FAA AST
Lisa Hague Aerospace Corp.
Jozsef Lore Boeing
Veronica Johnson United Launch Alliance
Alan Keisner SpaceX
David Keslow Orbital
Chris Kunstadter XL Insurance
Tom Monroe SS/L
Jennifer Micelli Tecolote Research / USAF / SMC / MV
Peter Stier Sea Launch
Jeanne Beesley Boeing
Beth King Lockheed Martin
Deborah Facktor Lepore Air Launch
52009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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GSO Methodology
• Information requested of ~ 90 launch providers, satellite manufacturers & operators 21 companies responded in 2009 (29 in 2008)
• Individual & comprehensive responses
• Int’l competitive procurements only
• Sort satellites by mass categories Small - < 2,500 kg Medium - 2,500 to 4,200 kg Large - 4,200 to 5,400 kg Extra Large - > 5,400 kg
• Assign satellite demand to launchers
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GSO MethodologyCont.
• Questionnaire on factors affecting their satellite procurement plans 13 satellite operators responded in 2009 (17 in 2008)
• 6 operators responded in both 2008 & 2009
• 7 new responders in 2009
• Near term manifest (2009-2011)
• Long term forecast (2012-2018)
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GSO Forecast Sensitivities
•Realization factor developed for sensitivitiesMaximum and Minimum Variations of actual launches vs.
forecasted demand Calculated over 5-year rolling period
• Several factors identified that impact launch forecastSatellite-Related issuesLaunch Vehicle-Related issuesSchedule-Related issues
• Dual-Manifesting
WeatherPlan performanceFundingRegulatory
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GSO Satellite Demand Forecast
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Historical 1st Year Satellite Demand Forecast
2009 Satellite Demand Forecast
Actual Satellites Launched
= Expected Realization
Historical 1st Yr Forecast
Long-Term Demand Forecast
Near-Term Manifest
Actual
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GSO Satellite Demand ForecastMass Category
< 2.5 t
2.5 - 4.2 t
4.2 - 5.4 t
> 5.4 t
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GSO Launch Forecast
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Near-Term
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2008-2009 GSO Forecast Total Comparison
Parameter2008 Forecast
(2008-2017)2009 Forecast
(2009-2018)
# S Satellites 25 17
# M Satellites 64 74
# L Satellites 72 57
# XL Satellites 57 60
Total # Satellites 218 208
Total # Launches 162 157
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Satellite Operator AssessmentSignificant Negative Impact
Some Negative Impact
No Effect
Some Positive Impact
Significant Positive Impact
Compared to 2008
Regional or global economic conditions 0% 77% 23% 0% 0%
Demand for satellite services 8% 23% 23% 38% 8%
Ability to compete with terrestrial services 15% 15% 69% 0% 0%
Availability of financing 23% 46% 8% 23% 0%
Availability of affordable insurance 0% 23% 46% 31% 0%
Consolidation of service providers 0% 15% 77% 8% 0%
Increasing satellite life times 0% 38% 54% 8% 0%
Availability of satellite systems that meet your requirements 0% 8% 54% 31% 8%
Reliability of satellite systems 0% 38% 38% 15% 8%
Availability of launch vehicles that meet your requirements 8% 15% 46% 23% 8%
Reliability of launch systems 0% 31% 46% 23% 0%
Ability to obtain required export licenses 0% 15% 69% 8% 8%
Ability to obtain required operating licenses 8% 15% 69% 8% 0%
132009 Commercial GSO Launch Demand Forecast
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GSO Trends
• Long-Term Satellite ForecastRelatively stable in the near term
• Satellites – flat to slight decrease
• Launch demand – slight decrease
• Satellite mass – slight increase
• Transponders per satellite – slight increase
Relatively consistent average in the long term• Launch demand – flat (~15 launches/yr)
• Satellites – flat (~20 satellites/yr)
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GSO Forecast Summary
• 2009 satellite demand of 27 planned for 21 launches Combination of single and dual manifest
• 2010 satellite demand of 21 planned for 16 launches Combination of single and dual manifest
• Projected average annual demand (2009-2018) 20.8 satellites 15.7 launches
• Other factors identified may affect launchers New launch vehicle entrants Dual manifest launches
• Operator assessments negative compared to 2008 Some responder changes from 2008 survey Uncertain economic conditions Reliability of launchers/satellites
Hosted payloads ITAR free satellites