20081111streangthing adaptive capacity of water supply...2008/11/11 · chilung river 5 point3.6...

Strengthening Adaptive Capacity of

Water Supply Systems to Climate Change- the Danshuei River Watershed

Prof. Ching-pin Tung (童慶斌)Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering

National Taiwan University

Prof. Pao-shan YU (游保杉)Hydraulic and Ocean EngineeringNational Cheng Kung University

Prof. Ming-hsu Li (李明旭)Institute of Hydrological and Oceanic SciencesNational Central University

Sustainable Development Laboratory Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering

Contents

� Background and Goals

� Analysis of Current Hydrology

� Assessment of Climate Change Impacts

� Adaptations

� Final Remarks


Background

� Extensive development requires more resources

and discharges more pollutants, which may

degrade eco-environment.

� Sustainable development requires to meet the

needs of both current and future generations.

� Development of sustainable watershed

management plans is crucial, and changing

climate is the most important challenge and

should be seriously considered.


� Water resources engineering is designed

according to physical rules and statistic

information derived from historical observation.

� Those statistics are assumed to be constant in

design process.


� Climate not only changes but also is changing.

� Can hydrological statistics be constants?

� Can water resources systems still provide reliable

services in future?

� How and what should we do?


Goals of our study

� Evaluating the reliability of water supply

systems.

� Identifying effective strategies to strengthen

adaptive capacity of water supply systems,

which can

� Continuously support social and economic

developments and

� Sustainably conserve eco-environment


Study Area

- the Dan-Shuei River Watershed

Sindian River

Dahan River

Keelung River

Shih-Men Reservoir

Fei-Tsui Reservoir

• Three major Tributaries

• Sindian River

• Dahan River

• Keelung River

• Two reservoirs

• Shih-Men Reservoir

• Fei-Tsui Reservoir


Taipei District

Keelung DistrictBanxin District

Taoyuan District

Dahan River

Shih-Men

Reservoir

Fei-Tsui

ReservoirSindian River

Keelung RiverSansia River

(Dahan River)

(Figures provided by Prof. Li)

Analysis of Current Hydrology


y = 0.0974x - 1770

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005YearYearYearYearRainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day) Rainfall IntensityLinear Fit

y = 0.0773x - 132.870

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006YearYearYearYearRainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day) Rainfall IntensityLinear Fity = 0.0377x - 59.335

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005YearYearYearYearRainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day) Rainfall IntensityLinear Fit

y = 0.0299x - 34.7690

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000YearYearYearYearRainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day)Rainfall Intensity(mm/day) Rainfall IntensityLinear Fit

Trend of Rainfall Intensity

[Prof. Li (李明旭李明旭李明旭李明旭), NCU]

淡水站淡水站淡水站淡水站基隆站基隆站基隆站基隆站

竹子湖站竹子湖站竹子湖站竹子湖站台北站台北站台北站台北站


Trend of Dry Day durationsTrend of Dry Day durationsTrend of Dry Day durationsTrend of Dry Day durations

y = 0.0085x - 12.819

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005YearYearYearYearDaysDaysDaysDays

averageLinear Fit y = 0.0085x - 12.819

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005YearYearYearYearDaysDaysDaysDays

averageLinear Fit

TaipeiTaipeiTaipeiTaipei DansheuiDansheuiDansheuiDansheui


Trend of flow/rainfall ratioFei-Tsui Reservoir [Prof. Li (李明旭李明旭李明旭李明旭), NCU]

Year

An

nu

alQ

/PA

no

mal

y

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

Q/PLinear Fit

Year

Dep

th(m

m)

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 20060

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

RainfallRainfall STD

集水區年逕流比值距平圖集水區年逕流比值距平圖集水區年逕流比值距平圖集水區年逕流比值距平圖

集水區年降雨深度與年逕流深度歷線圖集水區年降雨深度與年逕流深度歷線圖集水區年降雨深度與年逕流深度歷線圖集水區年降雨深度與年逕流深度歷線圖

集水區雨量站之相關位置圖集水區雨量站之相關位置圖集水區雨量站之相關位置圖集水區雨量站之相關位置圖

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts


Methodology

� Development of systematic tools to identify

vulnerable components of water supply systems

� Natural components

� Atmosphere - climate and weather

� Hydrosphere - Stream flows, groundwater

� Human components

� Facility – reservoirs, treatment plants, distribution

systems

� Management plans – demands and operations


Procedures

GCM Predictions

Downscaling

Future

Climate Scenarios

Weather Generation Hydrological Model

Impact Inoformation

for Decision Making

# # # #TO01

TO05

TO04

TO10

TO02

TO06

TO03

TO07

TO08

TO09

TO11

KY01KY02

KY03

KY04

KY05

KY06

ChuLin

TouChen

RuiFeng

SiChou

0 10 20 Km

N

EW

S

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6 短期中期長期氣候預設情境流量增減模擬個數

Water Supply System

Dynamics Model

FeiCui

Reservoir

ZhiTan Dam

QinTan Weir

BeiShi river 1

B point 1

NanShi r iver

FeiCui Rule Flow

XinDian river 1

ZhiTan Supply

XinDian river 2

QinTan Supply

FeiCui Rule A

FeiCui Rule B

FeiCui Rule C

FeiCui Power

Station

FeiCui Volume

Depth

<ZhiTan Total

Supply>

<QinTan Total

Supply>

ZhiTan Dam

Volume Depth

QinTan Weir

volume depth

ZhiTan Dam

Overflow

QinTan Weir

Overflow

ZhiTan Dam Max

Volume

QinTan Weir Max

Volume

FeiCui OverflowFeiCui Reservoir

Operation Rules Flow FeiCui Reservoir

Volume Max

ZhiTan Aqueduct

Max Capacity

ZhiTan WTP Max

Capacity

QinTan Aqueduct

Max CapacityQinTan WTP Max

Capacity

B point 2

XinDian river 3QinTan Weir

Side flow

<the tendays of

year>

<BeiShi river 1>

<NanShi river>

FeiCui Reservoir

flow


Downscaling Methods

� Simple Downscaling

� Climate changes of a local area are assumed the same as the nearest grid point

� Statistical Downscaling

� Finding the statistical relationships between regional climate and local climate.


Future Climate Scenarios

Simple Downscaling SDSM

GCMs

CGCM2

ECHAM4

HADCM3

CCSR/NIES

R30(GFDL)

CSIRO-Mk2

HADCM3

SRES A2、B2 A2、B2

Impacts on Stream Flows[Prof. Yu (游保杉游保杉游保杉游保杉), NCKU]


HBV Model

� Parameters� FC(Field Capacity)

� β、LP (Parameter)

� UZL(Outflow height)

� Recession Coefficient

� K0 (UZL)

� K1 (upper tank)

� K2 (lower tank)

� Ce (coefficient of ET)

� PERC (Percolation)

Lower

response tank

Upper

response tank

Slz

Soil

moisture

Evapotranspiration

Ssm

Rainfall

Suz

UZL

Slow responseQuick response

Runoff(Q)

Q0=K0

(Suz-UZL)

Q d=K 2

S lz

Q1=K1

Suz PERC

Qs

Lower

response tank

Upper

response tank

SlzSlz

Soil

moisture

Evapotranspiration

Ssm

Rainfall

Evapotranspiration

Ssm

Rainfall

Suz

UZL

Suz

UZL


Runoff(Q)

Q0=K0

(Suz-UZL)

Q d=K 2

S lz

Q1=K1

Suz


Runoff(Q)

Q0=K0

(Suz-UZL)

Q d=K 2

S lz

Q1=K1

Suz PERCPERC

QsQs


0 20 40 60 80 100

(%)

0

4

8

12

16

20

Flo

w (

mm

/day

)

Scenarios

A2

B2

Simulation

Impacts on Stream FlowsDry Period [Prof. Yu (游保杉游保杉游保杉游保杉), NCKU]

� FeiFeiFeiFei----Tsui Reservoir InflowsTsui Reservoir InflowsTsui Reservoir InflowsTsui Reservoir Inflows

Simple Downscaling SDSM Downscaling

0 20 40 60 80 100

(%)

0

4

8

12

16

20

Flo

w (

mm

/day

)

Scenarios

HAD3_A2

HAD3_B2

Simulation


0 20 40 60 80 100

(%)

0

10

20

30

40

Flo

w (

mm

/day

)

Scenarios

HAD3_A2

HAD3_B2

Simulation

Impacts on Stream FlowsWet Period [Prof. Yu (游保杉游保杉游保杉游保杉), NCKU]

� Keelung riverKeelung riverKeelung riverKeelung river

SDSM Downscaling

0 20 40 60 80 100

(%)

0

10

20

30

40

Flo

w (

mm

/day

)

Scenarios

A2

B2

Simulation

Simple Downscaling

Impacts on Reservoir(C.P. Tung)

圖片來源：海洋大學河海工程系

http://wrm.hre.ntou.edu.tw/wrm/dss/resr/wk.htm

（圖片來源：水利署十河局網站）


Less Active Storage

More space for flood mitigation

Flood Mitigation

232234236238240242244246248250252254

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 小時水庫水位(公尺) 壩頂標高操作上可容忍的高度HAD_A2_短期HAD_A2_中期HAD_B2_短期HAD_B2_中期HADCM3_A2_短期HADCM3_A2_中期HADCM3_B2_短期HADCM3_B2_中期月份蓄水量(百萬立方公

尺) 下限蓄水量嚴重下限蓄水量25percentile

average

75percentile

1

0

1

1 1

1

2 2 543

Less space for flood mitigation

More Active Storage

Water Supply

?


Modifications of Operational Rules due

to More Extreme Events_HADCM3

Impacts on Water Supply(C.P. Tung)

Sindian River

Dahan River

Keelung River

Shih-Men

Reservoir

Fei-Tsui Reservoir


Agriculture

Water Supply System Dynamics Model

- the Sindian and Dahan River

Feitsui

Reservoir

Chih-Tan

Dam

Ching-tan

DamSansia

Weir

Yuan-

Shan

Weir

Bei

shie

Nan

shie

Taipei

District

Taoyuan

District

Shihmen

Canal

Shihmen

Reservoir

Hou-Chiu

WeirTaoyuan

Canal

Sansia

River

Banxin

District

Dah

an

River Channel


Agriculture

Water Supply System Dynamics Model

- the Sindian and Dahan River

Chih-Tan

Feitsui

Reservoir

Chih-Tan

Dam

Ching-tan

DamSansia

Weir

Yuan-

Shan

WeirGungkuan

Changshin

Pingzheng

Shihmen

Danan

Banxin

Bei

shie

Nan

shie

Taipei

District

Lungtan

Taoyuan

District

Shihmen

Canal

Shihmen

Reservoir

Hou-Chiu

WeirTaoyuan

Canal

Sansia

River

Banxin

District

Dah

an

Treatment

PlantRiver Channel

Withdraw Ditch


Fei-Tsui

Reservoir

Chih-Tan

Dam

Ching-Tan

Weir

Pei

Pei-Shih Riverdownstream

Hsin-Tien River

upstream

Hsin-Tien River

Hsin-Tien Riverdownstream

Nan

Chih-Tan WTP

AqueductChang-Hsing

WTPKung-Kuan

WTP

Operation Rules:

1997-2013

Rule-up

Rule-down

Rule-down

seriously

volume-depth

overflow

<Nan><Total Water

Demand>

Power Station

CT Max Capacity

CH Max Capacity

KK Max

Capacity

CT 4th

capacity

CT 5th-add

capacity

<Total Water Demand>

CT Aqueduct

Capacity

Aqueduct

Capacity<Total Water

Demand><Chih-Tan WTP>

<days of year>

water to dilute

pollution

delay

<volume-depth>

combined point

separate point

The Sindian Water Supply System

Dynamics Model


Keelung Water Supply System

Dynamics Model

point3.1

ChiLung

River 1

JuiFang WTP

point3.3

ChiLung

River 2

TungShih

Keng Weir

TSK River

HsiShih

Reservoir HS River

point3.2

NuanNuan River

TSK overflow TSK water right

HS overflow

HS water right

abstraction NN2

abstraction NN1

TSK tendays

water rightpoint 3.4

ChiLungRiver 3

abstraction NN3

HsinShan

Reservoir

ChiLung

River 4

PaTu

abstraction

HsinShan

WTP

abstraction

NN4

AnLe WTP

AnLe

abstraction

point 3.6

point 3.7

MaSu River2

ChungFu WTP

MaSu River 1

point 3.9 MaLing

Keng Weir

ChiLungRiver 6

MLK water rightMLK River

LiuTu WTP

MaSu River3

point 3.10

ChiLungRiver 7

YuJui Weir

YJ River

YJ water right

point 3.11

point 3.12

ChiLung

River 8

ChiLungRiver 9

abstraction

CH1 PaoChang

Keng WeirPCK River

PCK water right

abstractionCH2

ChiLung

River 10

KangHao

Keng WeirKHK River 2KHK River 1

PaiYun WTP

KungLiao

Weir

ShuangRiver

S water right

KungLiao WTP

ChiLung inflow

TSK inflow

HS inflow

NN1 Max

Capacity

NN2 Max

CapacityMaSu inflow

YJ overflow

MLK overflow

PCK overflow

S overflow

<the ? month of year>

<JF Max

Capacity>

<Proportion of NN

WTP Responsibility>

PT tendays water right

NN3 Max

Capacity

<Proportion of NN

WTP Responsibility>

<abstraction

NN1><abstraction NN2>

<Proportion of JF

WTP Responsibility>

<LT Max

Capacity>

MLK inflow

<Proportion of LT

WTP Responsibility>

MLK tendays

water right

PCK tendays

water right


PCK inflow

YJ tendays

water right

<Proportion of CH

WTP Responsibility>

CH1 Max

Capacity

CH2 Max

Capacity

<Proportion of CH

WTP Responsibility>

<abstraction

CH1>

YJ inflow

KHK inflow

<Proportion of PY

WTP Responsibility> <PY Max Capacity>

<Proportion ofCF WTP

Responsibility>

<CF Max

Capacity>

NN4 Max

Capacity

<Proportion of HS

WTP Responsibility>

<Proportion ofAL WTP

Responsibility>

<PT tendays

water right> NN4<NN4>

PT MaxCapacity

TaWuLun River

<AL Max

Capacity>

<HS MaxCapacity>

S inflow

<KL Max

Capacity>

<Proportion of KL

WTP Responsibility>

S tendays

water right


point 3.5

ChilungRiver 5

point3.6


Current Water Supply Capability

(1991~2001, unit: 104 CMD)

District

W/O Ban I Project W/ Ban I Project

Demand Supply Demand Supply

Taipei 220.9 282.0220.9

348.752.6(支援板新支援板新支援板新支援板新)

Banxin 70.6 52.252.6(臺北支援臺北支援臺北支援臺北支援)

69.318.0

Taoyuan 66.8 108.9 66.8 108.9

Keelung 22.9 36.3 22.9 36.3


Trend of Water Supply CapacitySRES-A2-Simple Downscaling

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

台北板新桃園基隆

0%~-5%

-5%~-10%

<-10%

0~5%

5%~10%

>10%

Taipei Banxin Taoyuan Keelung


Trend of Water Supply CapacitySRES-B2-Simple Downscaling

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Taipei Banxin Taoyuan Keelung

0%~-5%

-5%~-10%

<-10%

0~5%

5%~10%

>10%


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


0%~-5%

-5%~-10%

<-10%

0~5%

5%~10%

>10%

SDSM降尺度 A2情境環境承載力變化趨勢

Trend of Water Supply CapacitySRES-A2-SDSM Downscaling


-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6


0%~-5%

-5%~-10%

<-10%

0~5%

5%~10%

>10%

SDSM降尺度 B2情境環境承載力變化趨勢

Trend of Water Supply CapacitySRES-B2-SDSM Downscaling


Ability to Meet Water Demand

� The Taipei District

� Water supply for the Taipei is still sufficient for

next 20~30 years, and it can deliver extra water to

other districts.

� The Banxin District

� The ability of water supply of the Banxin district

may decrease due to reduced streamflows in dry

periods. Water delivered from the Taipei district

will be a very important strategy.


� The Taoyuan district

� Water supply may decrease due to lower flows in

dry periods.

� Water demand increases significantly, which causes

more water shortage.

� Water demand management is very important.

More water sources and new facility may also be

required for the district.


� The Keelung District

� Although the ability of water supply may

increase in the Keelung district, significant

increase of demand may still result in water

deficit.

� Currently, the utilization rate of the Keelung

river is still low, more water treatment facility

could be installed to increase water supply.

Adaptations


Principles to Strengthen Adaptive

Strategies

� Identify the most vulnerable components and their

corresponding strategies.

� Insufficient water resources?

� Less flexible water management plan?

� Too many water demands?

� Develop an early warning systems to trigger actions.


Key points on Strengthening Adaptive

Capacity of Water Supply Systems

� Demand Management� Water Saving

� Land Planning

� Water Management Ability� Connecting different systems

� Natural conservation

� New Water Sources & Facility� Groundwater

� Rainfall Harvesting

� New Treatment Facility


Early Warning Systems to

Strengthen Adaptive Capacity

Action

Warning

Strengthen

Adaptive

Capacity

(a)

(b)

(c)

time

time

time

High Vulnerability

Shortage Warning

Reduce

Demand

Adaptative Capacity

Adaptative Capacity

Adaptative Capacity


Early Warning and Risk

Management Systems

Systems Time Scale Responses

Real time Hourly, Daily Operational Measures

Seasonal Season, Half year Management

Near-term Several years Management

Long-term Ten years Planning Management

Long-term Planning Adaptations to

Changing Climate

Ranking Adaptation Strategies


Decision making on Adaptation

Actions

� Taking actions depends on several factors,

including

(1)Time left to take action,

(2)Uncertainty,

(3)Effectiveness in reducing risk & vulnerability,

(4)Costs (regret or non-regret)

Action = F(T, U, E, C)

� Ranking Tool: Analytic Hierarchy Process


Example of AHP Analysis

45

Principle

GOALRanking Adaptive

Strategies in Taoyuan

Ranking Adaptive

Strategies in Taoyuan

AlternativeTa-Han River Southern

Re-allocation

(SRA)

Ta-Han River Southern

Re-allocation

(SRA)

Lung-Tan Water

Treatment Plant

Expansion(WTPE)

Lung-Tan Water

Treatment Plant

Expansion(WTPE)

Desalination Plant

(DP)

Desalination Plant

(DP)

Cost-BenefitCost-Benefit TimeTime EffectivenessEffectiveness UncertaintyUncertainty

Justice Vulnerability ReversableNo-Regret

Sustainable Development Laboratory Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering46

CostCostCostCost----BenefitBenefitBenefitBenefit TimeTimeTimeTime EffectivenessEffectivenessEffectivenessEffectiveness UncertaintyUncertaintyUncertaintyUncertainty

0.374 0.208 0.296 0.122

Weightings of all Principles

Weightings of all Alternatives

SRASRASRASRA WTPEWTPEWTPEWTPE DPDPDPDP

CostCostCostCost----BenefitBenefitBenefitBenefit 0.367 0.572 0.061

TimeTimeTimeTime 0.214 0.393 0.393

EffectivenessEffectivenessEffectivenessEffectiveness 0.293 0.266 0.442

UncertaintyUncertaintyUncertaintyUncertainty 0.379 0.152 0.469

Ranking

SRASRASRASRA WTPEWTPEWTPEWTPE DPDPDPDP

0.315 0.393 0.292

Lung-Tan Water Treatment Plant Expansion (WTPE)

is the best of the three assessed Adaptative strategies in Taoyuan.

Results


Functions

� Analyzing historical hydrological data

� Preparing climate scenarios (10 GCMs and 3 SRES

scenarios)

� Generate daily weather data

� Simulate impacts on stream flows (the HBV and

GWLF models)

� Simulate Impacts on water supply systems (Link to

a pre-developed system dynamics model, VENSIM)

� Rank adaptation strategies (Analytic Hierarchy

Process)


Initial Setting


Weather Generator


HBV MODEL


More functions will be added

� Better statistical downscaling methods

� Better impact simulation on water resource systems

� Agricultural Water Demands

� Groundwater

� Rainfall Harvesting Systems

� Water Quality

� Better water resources management tools

� Conjunction uses of surface and ground water

� Modification on reservoir operational rules

Seasonal Forecasts and Responses to

Climate Variability

1. Forecasts on water demand and supply

2. More flexible management strategies


Seasonal Climate Forecasts

Level

Beginning time

Ending time

Groundwater Reservoir

StreamflowIrrigation

Demand


Seasonal Storage Forecasts - January, February, March (JFM, 2002)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36旬

蓄水

量(千

立方公

尺)

上限下限嚴重下限預測低水位預測高水位


Seasonal Storage Forecasts

- February, March, April (FMA , 2002)

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36旬

蓄水量

(千立方公

尺)



Seasonal Storage Forecasts - March, April, May (MAM, 2002)

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36旬

蓄水

量(千

立方

公尺)



Benefits of Applying Seasonal

Information

Year

Actual Estimate

Benefits(100 Million)

Stop Farming

Area

(ha)

Money paid

to Farmers(100 Million)

Stop Farming

Area

(ha)

Money

paid to

Farmers(100 Million)

200210,439(3月休耕月休耕月休耕月休耕)

4,700(5月休耕月休耕月休耕月休耕)11.8 (11.3) 10,556.4 7.7 + 4.1( +3.6)

2003 24,749 14.9 (10.6)case 1 0 0 +14.9(+10.6)

case 2 7037.6 4.2 +10.7( +6.4)

2004 36,730 22.0 (27.9) 21,112.8 12.7 + 9.3(+15.2)

2006 24,597 16.6 (13.8) 0 0 +16.6(+13.8)

Total：：：： +55.6(+49.6)B/C = NT$4,960,000,000/NT$285,000 = 17,403


Final Remarks

� Sustainable uses of water resources is our goal.

The abilities to evaluate climate change and to

strengthen adaptive capacity are very important to

reach the goal.

� Uncertainty is the major constraint on taking

actions. Early warning and risk management

systems are very important for adapting to future

climate.

Thanks for Listening!

All Questions are Welcomed!

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