2003 single-family home rebate program evaluation

Electric / Gas / Water

2003 Single-Family Home Rebate Program Evaluation

Summary of Final Evaluation ReportPrepared by:

John Cavalli, ItronTami Rasmussen, KEMAKenneth James, PG&E

July 26, 2006

Knowledge to Shape Your Future

2

Evaluation Objectives

Participation Assessment• Identify measures contributing to savings

Program Verification• Verify that measures were installed and program-qualifying

Process Assessment • Examine program awareness and customer satisfaction. • Assess retailer and contractor involvement.

Measure Assessment • Detailed characterization and assessment of program

influence for Programmable Thermostats, Central Air Conditioners and Windows.


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Program Targets and Accomplishments

• Overall, the program fell short of its electric savings goals, but met the majority of its gas and HTR goals.– Energy and demand savings:

– HTR accomplishments:

Statewide Program Savings CPUC Target Result % Target Reached

Energy Savings, kWh 54,673,120 52,036,643 95%Demand Reduction, kW 46,799 43,248 92%Therms Reduction 5,625,742 5,648,699 100%

% Applications from HTR CustomersUtility Target Result

PG&E 35% 38%SCE 34% 38%SDG&E 60% 58%SCG 23% 24%


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Program Accomplishments

kWh Savings

Pool Pumps 20%

Windows13%

Other19%

Programmable Thermostats

33%

Air Conditioners/ Heat Pumps/

Room AC15%

Therm Savings

Programmable Thermostats

41% Dishwasher - Energy Star

12%

Windows - High Perf. Dual Pane

7%

Other8%

Attic Insulation7%

Clothes Washer - Energy Star

25%

• Programmable Thermostats contributed over a third of the program’s kWh and Therms accomplishments.

• Pool Pumps contributed 20% of the program’s kWh accomplishments.

• Clothes Washers contributed a quarter of the program’s Therms accomplishments.


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Program Verification Results

• Applications – were entered correctly and invoices verified program qualifying equipment.

• Measure Accomplishments and Ex Ante Values – were verified comparing tracking data, CPUC Final workbooks and PIPs.

• HTR Accomplishments – were verified comparing tracking data and CPUC Final workbooks.

• Measure Installations – were verified through 1,065 telephone surveys, and were determined to be program qualifying through 76 on-sites.– 98% of surveyed participants recalled receiving their rebate– 98% still have their measure installed– 100% of measures were verified on-site

Overall the accomplishments reported to the CPUC were accurately reported and installed.


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Process and Measure Assessments

• Interviews with 742 Participants• Interviews with 42 HVAC contractors, 40 windows

contractors, and 21 retailers.


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Sources of Program Awareness

• Retailers remained the primary source for program awareness.

40%

32%

12%

7%

4%

36%

33%

18%

8% 7%

20022003

In the Store(Salesperson)

Utility Mass Market(Bill Insert, Brochure,TV/Radio/Newspaper)

Contractor Word-of-Mouth Utility Website0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


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Where Participants Obtain Rebate Applications

• Retailers also provided participants with rebate applications nearly half of the time.– Significant increase in obtaining applications online

50%

8%

26%

9%

43%

21%

17%14%

20022003

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Retailer Online Utility Contractor


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Satisfaction• Compared to 2002

– Participant satisfaction with rebate turnaround time increased, reflecting IOU efforts to streamline application processing.

– Bill savings continued to receive the lowest satisfaction score.

91% 90% 88%80% 78% 77% 73%

61%

7% 8% 10%18% 20% 20%

23%

31%

2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 8%

DissatisfiedNeutralSatisfied

ProgramExperience

Contractor Equipmentand

PerformanceRebate

TurnaroundTime

ApplicationProcess

Rebate Utility Savings onEnergy Bill

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


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Process Assessment - Retailers

• Retailers continue to be a key market actor in moving the energy-efficient appliance market. – Appliance purchasing participants tend to learn about

rebates through retailers. • Nearly 75% got an application at a retailer.

– 89% recalled speaking with a retail salesperson.– 67% recalled in-store advertising.– Nearly all retailers interviewed were aware of the

program.


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Retailers – Point of Sale Rebates

• 44,000 Energy Star Programmable Thermostats were rebated through point-of-sale discounts.

• 67% of the retailers interviewed supported expanding POS rebates to additional measures:– Clothes washers, whole house fans, room air conditioners, and

pool pumps• POS Retailers believed sales for other program-qualifying

equipment could increase by 25% if POS were expanded.

• The most significant benefits of the POS approach:– Customers receive their rebates instantly and avoid the hassle

of filling out a rebate form.• The greatest drawbacks of the POS approach:

– Retailers must rely on the utilities for payment, – Smaller retail establishments are not equipped to handle POS

rebates.


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Process Assessment - Contractors

• Contractors figure prominently into making participants aware of program-qualifying heating and cooling measures.– Nearly half of the heating and cooling measure

participants:• Became aware of the program through a contractor.• Obtained their application from their contractor.

– Over 80% of the contractors interviewed were aware of the program.

– Over half of the contractors interviewed said they actively promote rebates.

– 70% of HVAC contractors fill out rebate applications on behalf of their customers.


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Energy Star Programmable Thermostat Assessment

• 24,000 participants submitted an application for an Energy Star programmable thermostat rebate.– 7,000 installed on their own (DIY – do-it-yourself)– 17,000 had a contractor install

• 44,000 participants received a point-of-sale (POS) discount from a participating retailer.– Tracking data were not collected for these customers, and only

25 participants were surveyed.


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P-Stat: Existing Equipment and Sales

• According to contractors, – 44% of their customers have a programmable thermostat– 21% of their customers have Energy Star-qualified thermostats.

• Many Participants replaced existing programmable thermostats– 26% of Contractor installs, 17% of DIY and 12% of POS

• HVAC contractors claim installing Energy Star programmable thermostats has become standard practice– 74% of contractor thermostat installations are Energy Star. – However, contractors say only a third of their customers ask for

Energy Star-qualified thermostats.


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P-Stat: Usage

• Nearly half of participants claim to use their air conditioner/furnace less after installing their new thermostat

• About 40% do not use the programmable features:– Very few use the factory settings (about 10%).

• Contractors tend to program the unit for their customers and show them how to use it, according to both contractors and participants.


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P-Stat Influence: Contractor Installations

• 63% of participants claim they would have purchased an Energy Star thermostat in the absence of the program

• Only 23% said the rebate was very influential– However, 41% were somewhat influenced

• Contractors also indicate program is having limited influence on what they recommend and install.– 95% of contractors replace thermostat when installing AC– 78% install an Energy Star Programmable Thermostat– Contractors report sales of Energy Star Programmable Thermostats

would decrease by only 9% if the program discontinued.

The Program is having a limited influence on contractor installed units:


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P-Stat Influence: DIY Installations

• 69% of participants claim them would have purchased an Energy Star thermostat in the absence of the program

• Only 27% said the rebate was very influential– However, 50% were somewhat influenced

The Program is also having a limited influence on DIY installations:


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P-Stat Influence: POS Installations

• 43% said the rebate was very influential– Only, 16% were not at all influenced

• However, 62% of participants claim them would have purchased an Energy Star thermostat in the absence of the program

• Retailers report that:– Only 54% of the units they sell are programmable, and only 35%

are Energy Star.– Discontinuing the program would reduce sales of Energy Star

thermostats by as much as one third

The Program appears to have more influence on POS installations:


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Central Air Conditioner – Program Influence

• Participants claim they are not very influenced by the program. – 88% say they would have purchased an energy efficient CAC

without the rebate.– 37% of participants were not at all influenced by the rebate, and

only 18% were very influenced. – 67% claim their primary reason for purchasing a new CAC was

to replace an old, broken or poorly-performing unit.

• Contractors are much more influential on CAC purchase decisions than the rebate. – 49% of participants claim that their contractors were very

influential and only 22% said that they were not at all influential.


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Central Air Conditioner – Program Influence

• The program’s influence on the CAC market is seen more directly on the actions taken by contractors that actively promote the program than on consumers. – Contractors are recommending and explaining the benefits of

high efficiency equipment to over 75% of participants– Contractors are filling out the application on behalf of the

participant (70% of the time).– Participants are not very knowledgeable about SEER and/or

Energy Star ratings for HVAC equipment (only about a third are knowledgeable)

– Most participants (55%) do not initially request high efficiency equipment from their contractor.

• Contractors claim their sales would be significantly reduced without the rebate.– By as much as a third for Tier III equipment.


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Windows – Program Influence

• Rebates for high-performance dual-pane windows do not appear to have any significant influence on whether or not customers purchase these types of windows. – 90% of participants said that they would have purchased high

performance windows absent the rebate– 43% said that they were not at all influenced by the rebate,

• Only 10% said that they were very influenced. – Window contractors claimed that high-performance windows

accounted for 80% of their total installations. • Even contractors unaware of the rebate program claimed that high-

performance windows accounted for 78% of their total installations. – Both aware and unaware contractors almost always recommend

high performance windows.


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Free Ridership Assessment

• An assessment of free ridership was made using three participant self report modeling scenarios. Ranges of free ridership were as follows:– Energy Star Programmable Thermostats: 42 – 78%– Windows: 62 – 91%

• Central air conditioners not modeled, as it is believed the contractors were primary influencing factor.


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Recommendations

• Reassess the cost-effectiveness of the programmable thermostat rebate

• Reassess the program’s gross per unit energy savings estimate for programmable thermostats

• Consider eliminating window rebates• Continue central air conditioning rebates• Consider moving the CAC rebate upstream, as the

program appears to directly influence contractors, but not customers

• Attempt to identify POS rebate participants and better assess the program’s influence on this delivery mechanism.

2003 single-family home rebate program evaluation

Documents

program targets

measure accomplishments

program qualifying equipment

programqualifying equipment

htr accomplishments

programs kwh accomplishments

pool pumpspos retailers

measure installations