MELBOURNE INSTITUTE

OF APPLIED ECONOMIC

AND SOCIAL RESEARCH

Annual Report 2000

and Outlook 2001–2002

Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social ResearchLevel 6, Economics and Commerce BuildingThe University of MelbourneVictoria 3010 AustraliaPhone: (03) 8344 5330Fax: (03) 8344 5630Email: melb.inst@iaesr.unimelb.edu.auWWW: http://www.melbourneinstitute.com

©2001 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research.COPYRIGHT: All rights reserved. Apart from fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permittedunder the Copyright Act 1968, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored or transmitted in any form or by any meanswithout the prior permission in writing of the Publisher.

ISSN 1441-1423

Photos by Photonet, Adrian Hall Photography, ID Photographics and Tyson Sadlo.

Printed and bound by Impact Printing.

CONTENTS

Some Highlights 4

Introduction to the Melbourne Institute 6

Director’s Report 8

Outlook for 2001 and 2002 10

Staff, Associates and Research Students 12

Advisory Board 16

Research Areas 18

Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis 18

Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies 20

Enterprise Performance Research 25

Contributions to Policy Analysis and Debates 26

Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum 28

Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum 30

Two Day Conference on Welfare Reform 31

Publications by Subscription 33

Staff Publications, Seminars, Presentations and Media Coverage 36

Finance and Performance Indicators 44

SOME HIGHLIGHTS

• McClure Report on welfare reform released(Director was one of the authors) and 380attend Melbourne Institute/FaCS conferenceon welfare reform

• Melbourne Institute commenced work on amajor new longitudinal survey (HILDA)about living in Australia

• Melbourne Institute’s economic indicatorsand forecasts continued to be closelywatched and the Centre for Business CycleAnalysis was praised by a review

• Melbourne Institute’s research and forumson innovation created considerable interest

• Melbourne Institute planned a social policyresearch agenda under a major four yearcontract with the Department of Family andCommunity Services

• Relationships maintained and extendedwith relevant private and publicorganisations and community groups suchas Westpac, William M. Mercer, IBISWorld,Mercantile Mutual (now ING), Reserve Bankof Australia, Department of Family and CommunityServices, Department of Employment, WorkplaceRelations and Small Business, ProductivityCommission, Australian Taxation Office and theCommittee for Economic Development of Australia

Mr Peter Scherer of the OECD, Mr David Butler of the ManpowerDemonstration Research Corporation, Mr David Kalisch of theDepartment of Family and Community Services and ProfessorBob Goodin of the Australian National University at the WelfareReform conference in November 2000

Professor Peter Dawkins, Ms Elizabeth Morgan, Mr Mark Paterson,Mr Ted Evans, Mr Michael Raper and Mr Patrick McClure talkingabout welfare reform at the Melbourne Institute PublicEconomics Forum in Canberra in April 2000

Mr Don Harding, Director of the Centre for BusinessCycle Analysis, presenting the Melbourne Institute’seconomic update at the Melbourne InstituteBusiness Economics Forum

4

Performance Indicators

Melbourne Institute performance indicators registered increases in:• National competitive research grants• Other research funding• Total external research income• Subscriptions to Melbourne Institute productsMelbourne Institute staff published 30 articles in refereed journals including: Economic Papers, AustralasianJournal on Ageing, Gender Issues, Economic Analysis and Policy, Journal of Macroeconomics, AppliedEconomics Letters, The Economic Record, The Australian Economic Review, Australian Bulletin ofLabour, Information Economics and Policy, Journal of Industrial Relations, Industrial Relations: aJournal of Economy and Society, Hacienda Publica Espanola, Review, Australian Social Monitor,Queensland Economic Review.

Professor Peter Dawkins at the launch of the 2000 R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard

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Year

Exte

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Figure 1: Growth of External Research Income

INTRODUCTION TO THE MELBOURNE INSTITUTE

Vision, Mission, Focus, History and Strategic Objectives

Vision

The Melbourne Institute aims to be a major institute of applied economic and social research that is nationallyand internationally renowned in academia, government, business and community groups, and which

• promotes a deeper understanding and discussion of economic and social issues of national significance;

• fosters effective responses to these issues through research that identifies alternative policy responses andquantifies their likely effects;

• combines rigorous economic and social analysis with a genuine attachment to the Australian community’sconcern for the less well off.

Accordingly our vision is to be ‘hard-headed but soft-hearted’.

Mission

In seeking to achieve this vision the Melbourne Institute’s central mission is

• to undertake world-class independent and impartial applied economic and social research and policyanalysis, on major issues relevant to Australia; produce highly valued products and services for business,government and community groups; and provide research training for emerging economic and socialresearchers.

• to use our research to foster informed discussion and debate amongst academics, policy makers, businessand community groups, through publications, conferences, forums and the media.

In pursuing this mission, the Melbourne Institute will also undertake internationally collaborative research andwill seek to develop intellectual property that may be transferred to other parts of the world.

Focus

Unifying Theme

The unifying theme of the Melbourne Institute’s research agenda is to examine the determinants of botheconomic performance and social outcomes, and to explore the mutual relationship between the two.

Research Programs

Our current research programs are in the following areas: macroeconomics and business cycle analysis; labour,social and fiscal studies; and enterprise performance. While our core discipline is, and will remain, economics,we plan to engage with other disciplines including sociology, statistics, management, accounting, finance,demography, law and others.

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History

The Melbourne Institute was formed in 1962 under the leadership of Professor Ronald Henderson. It was the firsteconomics research institute in an Australian university. Henderson built up an organisation with over 40 staff by theearly 1970s. It engaged in a wide range of research areas including macroeconomic forecasting, financial economicsand social economics, and is best remembered for its work on poverty and the development of the "HendersonPoverty Line".

After the Henderson era, Professor Peter Dixon was appointed Director and, after some restructuring, the newInstitute based its operation around Dixon’s ORANI model of the Australian economy. In the early 1990s, Peter Dixonand a number of his senior colleagues left the Institute to join Monash University. This necessitated a second period ofadjustment and restructuring initiated by Professor Richard Blandy who was Director from 1992 to 1994.

The current Director, Professor Peter Dawkins, took his position in January 1996 and developed a five-yearstrategic plan to raise the Institute’s profile in academia, business, government and the community sector. The unifyingtheme of its research agenda was the link between economic performance and social outcomes. Since 1996 theInstitute has more than doubled in size on a range of measures (staff, revenue, publications, media references etc.).

Peter Dawkins has been appointed for a second five-year period (2001 to 2005) and a new strategic plandeveloped. The Institute now operates in three research areas: macroeconomics and business cycle analysis; laboursocial and fiscal studies; and enterprise performance research. In the new strategic plan, the Institute aims to achievea national and international reputation for excellence in its "hard headed but soft-hearted" economic and socialresearch, and to continue contributing strongly to public policy discussion. In pursuing this agenda, it plans tocontinue growing in size. In 2001 its expected income is over $5m and it employs about 35 staff.

Strategic Objectives

For the period 2001-2005 the Melbourne Institute aims:1. to consolidate and build on our strength and reputation in quantitative macroeconomics and business cycle

analysis, to be widely regarded as the major Australian centre in this field, and to produce world-classresearch output alongside highly respected economic indicators and forecasts;

2. to firmly establish our role in the closely related areas of labour, social and fiscal studies, with a view to beingwidely regarded as the major Australian centre in this field, with a primary focus on:• social policy research, especially about the link between the social security system and the labour market

and economic and social policy issues relating to families and communities;• household survey research, especially the survey of Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia

(HILDA), but also with an interest in undertaking research on important policy issues on other related topics (such as immigration, education policy, health policy, industrial relations), and an interest in undertaking miscellaneous consultancies on a range of topics in applied economic and social research thatutilise the skills of the researchers in this area;

3. to build upon the foundations laid in recent years in the area of enterprise performance and the related topicof intangible assets, intellectual property and innovation, and to establish a viable research team in this fieldthat will become widely regarded as excellent and producing outstanding research output;

4. to take advantage of our strengths in all the fields in which we operate, to conduct collaborative researchbetween the associated research teams to achieve insights that would not be possible if the teams operatedonly on an independent basis;

5. to explore other related fields in which we might choose to operate and to cautiously expand into such otherareas that would add to the overall strength of the Melbourne Institute in applied economic and socialresearch, without detracting from its existing strengths and cohesion;

6. to engage with policy makers, business and community groups, contributing strongly to economic and socialdebates and policy discussion and development in Australia, through publications, conferences, seminars,forums and other relevant means;

7. to be a significant centre of postgraduate study in economic and social research; 8. to be an enjoyable place to work and to promote the career development of staff of the Melbourne Institute;9. to effectively manage the growth of the Melbourne Institute from a small into a medium-sized organisation,

achieving the appropriate balance between spontaneity and efficient operation;10. to make the best use of information technology in achieving greater internal efficiency and in providing

services to clients.

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Introduction: Hard Heads: Soft Hearts

2000 was my fifth year as Director and I am pleased to be embarking on my secondfive-year contract in 2001. I can report that targets set in our strategic plan for 1996-2000 were achieved. We have now developed a new strategic plan for 2001-2005.

Our vision is to be a major institute of applied economic and social research that isnationally and internationally renowned in academia, government, business andcommunity groups, and to do so in a hard-headed but soft-hearted way. That is, weaim to combine rigorous economic and social analysis with a genuine attachment tothe Australian community’s concern for the less well off.

Over the period from 1996 until now the Melbourne Institute has grown in sizefrom having 18 to 33 staff. We have 13 outstanding academics as adjunct professorsand associates also. Our revenue in 1996 was about $1.4m. In 2001 it is expected tobe over $5m. Our range of publications has broadened and we have a very activeprogram of forums and conferences. We like to think that our research findings andideas have some influence in academia, government, business and community groups.

We believe this is a strong base upon which to further build and develop our contribution to Australian research andAustralian policy debates, and to aim to develop an outstanding reputation internationally.

Welfare Reform

Welfare Reform was a major issue in 2000 and one that occupied a considerable amount of my time as a member ofthe Reference Group that produced the McClure Report for the Commonwealth Government. During the welfarereview by the Reference Group, the Melbourne Institute hosted two seminars for invited experts on the issue ofpossible reforms to the income support system. I think they were very helpful indeed.

A few months after the McClure Report was released, the Melbourne Institute hosted a major two-day conferenceon welfare reform which was attended by 380 people from a mixture of government, community groups, business andacademia. This is more fully reported on pages 31-32.

The Research Agenda

The Melbourne Institute’s three research programs are:• Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research Program• Enterprise Performance Research Program• Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program.

Each had a very active year in 2000. Their activities and outputs are outlined on pages 18-25.The Melbourne Institute’s Centre for Business Cycle Analysis was reviewed by a panel chaired by the University’s

Professor John Freebairn and joined by two external reviewers, Professor Alan Layton (QUT) and Mr Tony Cole ofWilliam M. Mercer. More details are provided on page 18, but it was a very pleasing report in which it was stated that“the Centre has been an impressive performer in recent years and especially since 1998”. It made a particular pointof commenting on its economic forecasting performance.

DIRECTOR’S REPORT

Professor Peter DawkinsDIRECTOR

8

As well as having a very active year of research, the Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Research Program won twolarge contracts with the Department of Family and Community Services. One is to conduct four years of social policyresearch and the other is to design and manage the new survey of Household Income and Labour Dynamics inAustralia (HILDA). These major developments are outlined on page 21.

The Enterprise Performance Research Program came towards the end of a major three-year ARC project, incollaboration with a number of government departments and agencies and IBISWorld, in which it has produced alarge number of papers on the innovativeness, productivity and profitability of Australian business. In 2001 and 2002it is moving on to a new ARC project in association with IBISWorld, the BCA and CEDA, in which the research agendais enterprise performance.

Staffing and Adjunct Appointments

In the course of 2000 several staff joined the Melbourne Institute. These were ProfessorMark Wooden as Professorial Fellow, Mr Duy Tran and Mr Matt Hammill as ResearchOfficers, and Ms Lara Hammond as Administrative Assistant.

Three adjunct appointments were also made in 2000: Professor Bruce Chapman ofthe ANU as Professorial Fellow, Professor Alan Duncan of the University of Nottinghamas Professorial Fellow, and Professor John Freebairn of the Economics Department atthe University of Melbourne as Adjunct Professor.

Congratulations to Mr Michael Harris, Research Fellow, who submitted his PhD in2000, and left to take up a lectureship at La Trobe University. We wish him well in hisnew position. Dr Hyeon-seung Huh also left to take a position in Korea at the HallymUniversity. Mr Ben Jensen decided not to renew his contract as a Research Officer in2001, but will still be working on his PhD in the Institute.

A number of new staff are joining us in 2001. This includes a new position ofBusiness Manager, Ms Fiona Zammit, to head our administrative and technical supportteam and work with the senior academics in our senior management group in therunning of the Institute. Other appointments include Dr Guyonne Kalb and Mr Roger Wilkins as Research Fellows, MrMichael Chua and Mr Hsien Kew as Research Officers, Mr Simon Freidin as HILDA Database Manager and Ms PennyHope as Administrative Assistant.

Advisory Board

I would like to thank Dr Peter Jonson and the Advisory Board for their important contribution. The Board plays acrucial role for the Melbourne Institute in the form of high level advice and contact with the world of government,business and community groups. In 2000/2001 it has been especially helpful in assisting with the development of ournew strategic plan.

A special mention again for Mr Tony Cole, who in addition to serving on the Board, chairs the Melbourne InstituteBusiness Economics Forum in Melbourne and has taken the role of co-chairing the Melbourne Institute PublicEconomics Forum in Canberra and the new Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney.

Administrative and Technical Support

I would also like to take this opportunity to thank theadministrative and technical support team that plays a veryimportant role in ensuring the smooth operation of theMelbourne Institute.

Professor Alan Duncan APPOINTED AS A PROFESSORIAL FELLOW

IN 2000

Left to Right: Mr Jean-Luc Garlick, Ms Rachel Derham, Ms LaraHammond, Ms Fiona Zammit, Ms Karen Roe and Ms Penny Hope

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OUTLOOK FOR 2001 AND 2002

Introduction

Our strategic plan for 2001-2005 includes the aim of becoming internationally as well as nationally renowned inacademia, business, government and community groups. We aim to approximately double our research output in thisperiod and be an increasingly influential source of ideas for government, business and community groups.

Some of our planned activities in 2001-2002 are outlined below.

The Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator

The Melbourne Institute’s new behavioural model of the Australian tax and transfer system, developed as jointintellectual property with the Department of Family and Community Services, is now operational. It is planned thismodel will be extensively used to assess the likely effects of a range of possible reforms to the tax and social securitysystem. As well as a range of projects using the model and research to further develop the model, a number ofseminars will be arranged in 2001.

Social Policy Research

The Melbourne Institute has been selected as one of the preferred tenderers for the provisionof social policy research to the Department of Family and Community Services (FaCS) for theperiod 2001-2004. A contract has been negotiated which involves funding from FaCS of$750,000 per year over this period. Professor Jeff Borland of the Economics Department atthe University of Melbourne is joining the Melbourne Institute as an Adjunct Professor to leadone of the three research teams for this contract. The teams are to be put in place in thefollowing areas:• Empirical Studies of the Interaction of the Labour Market and Social Security System (led

by Jeff Borland)• The Supply and Demand for Income Security (led by Peter Dawkins)• Economic and Social Research on Families and Communities (led by David Johnson).

HILDA Survey

As outlined on page 21 of this report, the design and management of the survey of the Household Income and LabourDynamics in Australia (HILDA) will be a major activity in 2001 and 2002.

Forthcoming Conferences

The Melbourne Institute is planning two conferences in 2001 and at least one in 2002.

"Business Cycles", November 2001

The Melbourne Institute will host a two-day conference on international business cycles and their impact on Australiaon 8-9 November 2001. A particular focus of the conference will be the role of domestic monetary policy in an

Professor Jeff Borlandwill play a key role inthe social policyresearch contract

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international context. In addition, plenary sessions are planned for issues related to what academics and businesseconomists can learn from each other; the dating of business cycles; and the use of "real-time" (that is, unrevised)data in forecasting and business cycle analysis. The conference will be of interest to academics, practitioners andpolicy makers alike.

"Creating Jobs: The Role of Government", September 2001 in conjunction with theAustralian National University

We will hold a major conference in conjunction with the Australian National University in September 2001 onunemployment in Australia. The aim of the conference will be to ascertain to what extent government can increaseemployment and reduce long term unemployment, which policies are likely to be most effective, and to what extentthat effectiveness will be constrained or enhanced by macroeconomic factors and the international economy. Thekeynote speaker will be Dr Gary Burtless, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institution.

Economic and Social Outlook Conference, April 2002, in conjunction with TheAustralian

We will hold the first of a proposed series of biennial Economic and Social Outlook Conferences, "TowardsOpportunity and Prosperity" in conjunction with The Australian, in April 2002. The aim of the conference will be toexplore the major economic and social trends in Australia and to debate associated policy issues.

Research on the Economics and Reform of the Health-Care System

The Melbourne Institute has identified this area as one of major importance for policy based research in Australia.The Institute is planning a number of working conferences (in collaboration with other organisations) andpublications in this field over the next year.

Monograph on Innovation, Productivity and Profitability of AustralianEnterprises

In 2001, some of the research findings from a current ARC SPIRT Grant project on the Performance of AustralianEnterprises are being brought together and summarised in a new monograph. This will provide a compendium ofresearch evidence about the factors associated with innovativeness, productivity and profitability in small, medium andlarge enterprises.

Sydney Business Economics Forum

We are very pleased with the success of the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbourne which hasbeen in operation since 1997. The Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra is going well also. Weare launching a Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney in 2001.

Mr Glenn Stevens, Assistant Governor (Economic) of theReserve Bank of Australia, speaking at the inauguralMelbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Sydney

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STAFF, ASSOCIATES AND RESEARCH STUDENTS

Staff Members in 2000

Research StaffDirector and Ronald Henderson ProfessorProfessor Peter Dawkins BSc Lough, MSc (Eco) Lond,

PhD Lough

Professorial Research FellowProfessor Mark Wooden BEc Hons Flinders, MSc (Eco)

Lond

Principal Research Fellow and Deputy DirectorAssoc Prof David Johnson DipAgrEc NE, BAgrSc, MCom,

PhD Melb

Senior Research Fellow and Director, Centre forBusiness Cycle AnalysisMr Don Harding BEc, Dip Ec, MEc ANU

Senior Research Fellow and Director, EnterprisePerformance Research ProgramDr Elizabeth Webster BEc Hons, MEc Monash, PhD

Camb

Senior Research FellowsDr Mariah Evans BA (Soc) Reed, MA (Soc) Illinois,

PhD (Soc) ChicagoDr Mark Harris BA (Eco) Suss, GDipEc, PhD MonashDr Peter Summers BA (Commun), MA (Urb Reg Plng),

MS (Math), PhD Iowa

Research FellowsMr Simon Feeny BA Hons Portsmouth, MSc ReadingMr Michael Harris BEc Hons ANUDr Hyeon-seung Huh BEc Yonsei, GDipEc, MEc Syd,

PhD UNSWMs Anne Leahy BCom MelbMs Nellie Lentini BA MonashMr Woei Tian Liew BSc, MSc LaT, GDipEc MelbMs Joanne Loundes BEc Hons MurdochMs Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons MelbDr Yi-Ping Tseng BEc Taiwan, PhD ANUMs Nicole Watson BSc Hons UWA, GradDipMgtSc

Canberra

Research OfficersMr Matt Hammill BEc Newcastle, BComm (Hons) MelbMrs Glenys Harding BEc ANUDr Joanna Sikora MA Wroclaw, PhD ANU

Administrative and Technical SupportStaff

Finance and Information Technology ManagerMr Jean-Luc Garlick BSc, Dip Hum, Dip Eco Com LaT

Functions ManagerMs Karen Roe BA Hons, MA LaT, PGDACS Melb

Senior Administrative OfficerMs Rachel Derham BSc Melb

Administrative AssistantsMs Lara HammondMs Rosy Qin (on leave)

Postgraduate Students

Mr Yasar Gedik BEc Hons LaT MCom MelbMr Matt Hammill BEc Newcastle BComm Hons MelbMr Ben Jensen BComm Hons MelbMs Joanne Loundes BEc Hons MurdochMr Andrew Parnell BEc ANUMs Rosanna Scutella BCom Hons MelbMs Penny Smith BEc Hons UWA

New Staff Members in 2001

New Research and Administrative Staff

Research FellowsMr Simon Freidin BSc Hons LaT, GradDipCompSci LaTDr Guyonne Kalb MEc Erasmus, PhD MonashDr Lei Lei Song MSc, MCom, PhD MelbMr Duy Tien Tran BAgrEco Hons UNEDr Roger Wilkins BCom Hons, MCom, MSci (Eco)

Wisconsin

Research OfficersMr Michael Chua BEc Hons UNEMr Hsien Kew BCom Melb

Business ManagerMs Fiona Zammit Dip Ed, BEd Deakin

Administrative AssistantMs Penny Hope BA LaT

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Mr Michael Chua Professor Peter Dawkins Ms Rachel Derham Dr Mariah Evans Mr Simon Feeny

Mr Simon Freidin Mr Jean-Luc Garlick

Dr Hyeon-seung Huh

Mr Matt Hammill Ms Lara Hammond Mr Don Harding

Mrs Glenys Harding Dr Mark Harris

Mr Ben Jensen

Ms Penny HopeMr Michael Harris

Associate Professor David Johnson

Dr Guyonne Kalb Mr Hsien Kew Ms Anne Leahy

Ms Nellie Lentini Mr Woei Tian Liew Ms Joanne Loundes Ms Karen Roe Ms Rosanna Scutella

Dr Yi-Ping TsengDr Joanna Sikora

Ms Nicole Watson Dr ElizabethWebster

Dr Lei Lei Song

Dr Roger Wilkins

Dr Peter Summers

Professor MarkWooden

Mr Duy Tien Tran

Ms Fiona Zammit

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Staff Members in 2000-2001

Adjunct Professors and Associates in 2000Adjunct Professors

Professor John Creedy BSc (Eco) Brist, BPhil (Eco) OxfAdjunct Professor, Melbourne InstituteTruby Williams Chair of Economics, Department of Economics, the University of MelbourneResearch interests include income distribution, public economics, labour economics and the historyof economic analysis. Within the Institute, John has been joint Editor of the Australian EconomicReview and contribute to tax and welfare research and the development of the Melbourne InstituteTax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS).Professor John Freebairn MAgrEcon NE, PhD Davis, FASSAAdjunct Professor, Melbourne InstituteHead, Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneResearch interests include taxation reform, labour economics, especially employment, infrastructurepricing and investment and microeconomic reform. Within the Institute, John has made substantial con-tributions to research on unemployment and the areas of tax reform, public finance and public policy.

Adjunct Associate ProfessorProfessor Jeff Borland MA, PhD YaleAdjunct Associate Professor, Melbourne InstituteAssociate Professor, Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneResearch interests include analysis of the operation of labour markets in Australia, applications ofmicroeconomic theory to labour markets and the economics of sport. Within the Institute, Jeff is anassociate editor of the Australian Economic Review and a key leader in our social policy researchagenda.

Professorial FellowsProfessor Bruce Chapman BEc Hons ANU, PhD YaleProfessorial Fellow, Melbourne InstituteProfessor of Economics and Director of Centre for Economic Policy Research, RSSS, The AustralianNational UniversityResearch interests include labour economics, the economics of education, applied econometrics,industrial relations and economic policy issues. Within the Institute, Bruce is a key contributor toeconomic policy debate and is contributing to Melbourne Institute forums on higher education in 2001.Professor Alan Duncan BA Hons (Eco) Manchester, DPhil (Eco) YorkProfessorial Fellow, Melbourne InstituteProfessor of Microeconomics, School of Economics, University of NottinghamResearch interests include welfare program evaluation, analysis of work incentives, static and behaviouraltax microsimulation, econometric models of labour supply and labour market and welfare programparticipation. Within the Institute, Alan has led the development of the MITTS model in association withJohn Creedy.Professor Jonathan Kelley BA Camb, PhD BerkeleyProfessorial Fellow, Melbourne InstituteDirector, International Survey Project, The Australian National University, and Director and PrincipalInvestigator, International Social Science Survey and International Survey of Economic AttitudesResearch interests include quantitative sociology and social economics. Within the Institute, Jonathanproduces the International Social Science Survey in conjunction with the ANU. He has been a majorcontributor to the Australian Social Monitor and a key figure in the social policy research agenda.

Principal FellowDr Ernst Boehm AUA, BEc Hons, MEc Adel, DPhil Oxf, MCom MelbPrincipal Fellow, Melbourne InstituteResearch interests include the measurement and dating of the business cycle and the economichistory of Australia. Within the Institute, Ernst developed the leading, coincident and lagging indexesof Australian economic activity as well as the leading index of inflation. He published the results ofthese indexes in the monthly Westpac – Melbourne Institute reports between 1985 and 1994.

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Senior FellowDr Mark Rogers BSc (Eco) Lond, MSc (Eco) Warw, PhD ANUSenior Fellow, Melbourne InstituteTutor in Economics and Management, Harris Manchester College, Oxford UniversityResearch interests include economic growth and industrial organisation with a particular focus beingon firm-level performance using Australian data. Within the Institute Mark is involved in the creationand analysis of the Innovation Scoreboard and a major SPIRT project on the performance ofAustralian enterprises.

New Adjunct Professors and Associates in 2001

Professorial FellowsProfessor Derek Bosworth BA Lancaster, MSc, PhD WarwickProfessorial Fellow, Melbourne InstituteProfessor of Business Economics, Manchester School of Management, UMISTResearch interests include economics of innovation and technical change, productivity and firmperformance and intellectual property. Within the Institute, Derek is a principal investigator in an ARCSPIRT grant and is collaborating with the Enterprise Performance Research Program in the field ofthe economics of innovation. He was the instigator of the Innovation Scoreboard.

Professor Boris Schedvin BEc, PhD SydProfessorial Fellow, Melbourne InstituteResearch interests include economic history with particular interests in the transformation of theAustralian economy and of Australian economic and scientific institutions during the course of thetwentieth century. Within the Institute, Boris contributes to the research agenda in the areas ofeducation policy, health policy research and intellectual property research.

Principal FellowAssociate Professor Bruce Headey BA Oxford, MA Wisc PhD StrathPrincipal Fellow, Melbourne InstituteFormerly the Director of the Centre for Public Policy, the University of Melbourne.Research interests include welfare and distributional issues and social welfare policies in WesternEurope and North America. Within the Institute, Bruce is the editor of the Australian Social Monitorand involved in social policy research.

Adjunct ProfessorProfessor Danny Samson BEc, PhD UNSWAdjunct Professor, Melbourne InstituteProfessor, Department of Management, The University of Melbourne Research interests include operations management, business competitiveness, strategy and e-commerce.Within the Institute Danny contributes to the Enterprise Performance Research Program, is chiefinvestigator of an ARC SPIRT Grant and is involved in collaboration on research on innovation.

Senior FellowDr Mardi Dungey BEc, UTas PhD ANUSenior Fellow, Melbourne InstituteFellow Research, School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Australian National University. Research interests includeexchange rate volatility, macroeconomic modeling and time series econometrics. Within the Institute,Mardi contributes to the Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis Program.

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Advisory Board Members in 2000

ChairpersonDr Peter Jonson, Professional Director

MembersMs Stella Axarlis AM, Managing Director, Bilcon EngineeringMr Gary Banks, Chairman, Productivity CommissionMr Tony Cole, Principal - National Practice Leader, William M. MercerMr Michael Costa, Secretary, Labor Council of NSW, who resigned in 2001 due to

entering parliamentProfessor Peter Dawkins, Director and Ronald Henderson Professor, Melbourne

Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of MelbourneMr Bill Evans, General Manager, Westpac Banking CorporationFather Nic Frances, Executive Director, Brotherhood of St LaurenceProfessor John Freebairn, Head, Department of Economics, The University of MelbourneMr Don Harding, Assistant Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of

MelbourneAssoc Prof David Johnson, Deputy Director, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The

University of MelbourneMr Ian Little, Secretary, Department of Treasury and Finance, VictoriaProfessor Peter Lloyd, Ritchie Professor of Economics and Director, Centre for Financial Studies, The University of

MelbourneAssoc Prof Alison McClelland, Associate Professor, Department of Social Work and Social Policy, La Trobe UniversityDr David Rosalky, Secretary, Department of Family and Community ServicesMr Phil Ruthven, Executive Chairman, IBIS Business InformationProfessor Boris Schedvin, Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Academic Management), The University of MelbourneMr Glenn Stevens, Assistant Governor (Economic), Reserve Bank of AustraliaDr Elizabeth Webster, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The

University of MelbourneProfessor Ross Williams FASSA, Dean, Faculty of Economics and Commerce, The University of MelbourneProfessor Mark Wooden, Professorial Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research,

The University of Melbourne

ADVISORY BOARD

Dr Peter Jonson

A meeting of the Advisory BoardProfessor Peter Dawkins and Dr Peter Jonson

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Ms Stella Axarlis AM

Mr Gary Banks

Professor Ross Williams and Associate Professor David Johnson

Mr Michael Costa

Mr Bill Evans

Professor John Freebairn and Associate Professor David Johnson

Father Nic Frances

Professor Peter Lloyd

Dr David Rosalky and Mr Ian Little

Professor Boris SchedvinMr Glenn Stevens

Mr Phil Ruthven and Associate Professor Alison McClelland

Dr Elizabeth Webster

Mr Tony Cole

Mr Don Harding

Professor Mark Wooden

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RESEARCH AREAS

Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Analysis

Introduction

In 2000 the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis was engaged in a major program of research on business cycles as wellas continuing to produce its regular publications on economic indicators and forecasting etc. These publicationsinclude the Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Westpac – Melbourne InstituteIndexes of Economic Activity, Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment, MelbourneInstitute Survey of Inflationary Expectations and the ING Melbourne Institute Savings Report.

Research Staff

The Melbourne Institute Centre for Business Cycle Analysis is led by Mr Don Harding(Director) and Dr Peter Summers (Deputy Director).

The year 2000 saw big changes in staffing of the Centre. Dr Hyeon-Seung Huh returned toKorea, Ms Joanne Loundes moved to Enterprise Performance and Ms Rosanna Scutella movedfully into the Labour Social and Fiscal Studies Program. Ms Penelope Smith joined the Centreas a postgraduate student and Mr Matt Hammill joined the Centre as a Research Officer early in 2000. Several new staff were appointed in the second half of 2000, these included Ms AnneLeahy to manage our indicators, Dr Lei Lei Song and Mr Duy Tran who joined as a ResearchFellows and Mr Michael Chua as a Research Officer.

Review of the Centre

The Centre was reviewed in 2000 and found to be “an impressive performer in recent years andespecially since 1998”. The review also found that:

In terms of output, the Centre has been especially successful with its macroeconomicforecasts and with its research projects on business cycles. The Centre was one of veryfew economic forecasters to forecast the robust performance of the Australian economyduring the period of the Asian economic meltdown and subsequently. In part, this was an outcome of the development and use of recently developed econometric techniques in conjunction with the use of the previous tools of leading andcoincident indicators.

In 2000 Dr Peter Summers presented research from the forecasting program at the 20th International Symposium held inLisbon, Portugal.

Mr Don Harding

Dr Peter Summers

Research team: Ms Anne Leahy, Ms Penny Smith, Mr Duy Tien Tran, Mr Don Harding, Mr Matt Hammilland Dr Peter Summers

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The review further observed that:

The Centre has embarked on state-of-the-art analysis of business cycles. In part this has been at theinitiative of the full time staff and in part it has been facilitated by the input of Adrian Pagan. Analysis ofbusiness cycles, including the use of recent developments in econometrics, has become an important and, ofrecent times, more popular topic of economic analysis. The Centre clearly is at the forefront of Australiananalysis.

In 2000 Don Harding presented work from this research at the 20th International Symposium held in Lisbon,Portugal, the Centre for Growth and International Business Cycle Research Conference held in Manchester, UK, andthe World Congress of the Econometric Society held in Seattle, Washington, USA. Professor Adrian Pagan, who is aninvestigator, presented the research at Oxford and a number of European universities. As a result the business cyclesresearch program is gaining international recognition.

The Centre has an important role to play both commercially and in contributing to public policy discussions. Inthis regard the review committee found that:

Activities of the Centre have had a strong commercial focus and there have been useful inputs into publicpolicy discussions. Given the quality and credibility of the research of recent years, the Centre hasestablished a strong foundation for greater commercial, policy and media contributions in the future.

Unemployment: Modelling and Policy Analysis

2000 was also the first year of a major two-year ARC project on unemployment, in association with the Department ofFamily and Community Services, the Department of Employment, Workplace Relations and Small Business and theProductivity Commission. This project is being conducted by the Centre for Business Cycle Analysis in association withthe Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies Program and also involves researchers from the Economics Department at theUniversity of Melbourne. In 2000 a number of papers were produced which reviewed the state of knowledge aboutunemployment, and work commenced in the development of a range of modelling tools to be used in 2001.

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Labour, Social and Fiscal Studies

The Relationship Between the Labour Market and Tax, Social Security and WorkersCompensation

A number of projects undertaken in 2000 related to the relationship between the labour market, the tax and socialsecurity system and workers compensation.

Behavioural Microsimulation Modelling of the Tax/Transfer System

A major research partnership started in 1999 with the Department ofFamily and Community Services (DFACS) to develop the MelbourneInstitute Tax and Transfer Simulator (MITTS). MITTS is a behaviouralmicrosimulation model of the Australian tax and social security system.Professor John Creedy coordinated the project and Professor AlanDuncan, a leading exponent of such modelling from the UK’s University of Nottingham and the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), has visited theMelbourne Institute several times to lead the programming of the model.Rosanna Scutella and Mark Harris provided valuable contributions.

MITTS examines the effects of income tax and transfer payments policychanges on individuals and households in Australia. A distinguishing featureof MITTS is that it models labour supply responses to changes in taxes andbenefits. The simulator consists of two closely integrated models. A ‘static’model, MITTS-A, examines the effects of a specified change in the direct taxand transfer system, assuming that labour supply, and hence pre-tax andtransfer income, of each individual remains fixed. A ‘behavioural’ model,MITTS-B, allows for the effects of labour supply variations in response tochanges in the tax and transfer system.

As well as completing the construction of the first version of the MITTS-Aand MITTS-B, work was commenced on an ARC project to use the model toexamine the efficiency and equity implications of a major reform of the tax/transfer system, i.e. to move to a basic income/flat tax system or other variants of negative income tax.

Analysis of the FaCS Longitudinal Administrative Data Base

In 2000 four papers were produced in a project involving the analysis of the Department of Family and CommunityServices longitudinal administrative data base. These were “Means-tested benefits, incentives and earningsdistributions”, “Participation and employment status of persons on more than minimum family payments”, “Repeatedspells on benefits: an analysis of ‘churning’ using the FaCS longitudinal administrative data set” and “The relationshipbetween the ‘frequency and length of spells on unemployment benefits’”.

Factors Affecting Return to Work After Injury, A Study for the Victorian WorkCover Authority

The factors affecting the nature of claim behaviour and the opportunities for return to workamong workers compensation claimants are examined in this project, using a sample of theVictorian WorkCover Authority’s administrative database. The work was undertaken by DavidJohnson and Tim Fry from Monash University. The administrative database provides a record ofclaimants and the circumstances of their claims over a period of 15 years. A multivariate analysisof the data was undertaken to isolate the independent effect of factors of interest. The multivariateanalysis involved the construction of models in which first the probability of a claim occurring isdetermined and then its likely duration or cost.

Household Survey ResearchHousehold Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey

A major development during 2000 was the commencement of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics inAustralia survey (HILDA). A comprehensive report on this project can be found on the following page.

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Associate ProfessorDavid Johnson

Professor John Creedy and Professor AlanDuncan. Leaders in the development of the MITTSmodel

Three members of the MITTS research team:Mr Hsien Kew, Ms Rosanna Scutella and Dr Guyonne Kalb

Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey

Most industrial nations now conduct large-scale, representative household-based panel surveys collecting informationabout a wide range of social and economic topics (such as income, employment, family formation and health).Australia, however, has been a notable exception. While longitudinal data collections do exist, they typically focus onrelatively small sub-groups of the population, such as youth and immigrants. Moreover, these surveys typically followsample members for relatively short periods.

Australian policy-makers and researchers thus do not have access to data that is both representative of theAustralian population and provide information on the dynamic nature of events and how they interact in influencingthe changing behaviour and fortunes of Australian households, families and individuals.

This is all about to change. In the second half of 2001 the first wave of the Household, Income and LabourDynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey will be conducted. Funded and initiated by the Department of Family andCommunity Services, the management and design of the HILDA Survey was awarded, following a public tenderprocess, to a consortium led by the Melbourne Institute.

The project commenced in August 2000 with the first year devoted to the development and testing of a surveydesign. Key features of that design have been finalised. Most obviously, and following other international householdpanel studies, such as the British Household Panel Study and the German Socio-Economic Panel, the HILDA thusbegins with a random sample of households and then tracks the members of those households over time. The initialsample at Wave 1 is expected to comprise somewhere upwards of 11,000 households.

The fieldwork has been sub-contracted to the market research organisation, ACNielsen. The first wave datacollection will commence in late August 2001 and will continue until Christmas. Respondents will then be re-surveyedat similar times in 2002 and in 2003. While funding ceases with the third wave, it is hoped that further funding will beobtained to allow the annual survey process to continue indefinitely.

The importance of the data to both research and policy-making cannot be understated. There are, for example, agreat many social and economic issues that can only be properly understood with panel data. Some of the phenomenathat overseas household panel studies have helped illuminate include the dynamics of poverty and welfaredependence; growth in income inequality; impact of income support arrangements on work incentives; incidence,determinants and consequences of job mobility; consequences of family dissolution; and intergenerationaltransmission of socio-economic status.

It is thus expected the HILDA will become an increasingly important tool for both research and policy formation inAustralia.

Cover of the HILDA questionnaire

HILDA core research team: Ms Nicole Watson, Professor MarkWooden and Mr Simon Freidin

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International Social Science Survey and Research Database Facility

In collaboration with Jonathan Kelley of the ANU, the Melbourne Institute continued its involvement with theInternational Social Science Survey, Australia, and associated household survey research. Mariah Evans was the mainInstitute employee associated with this venture.

A major development has been the construction of a research database facility using data from the past surveys.Funded primarily by the ARC, Jonathan Kelley and Mariah Evans of the Melbourne Institute have coordinated this workin partnership with the Australian National University, Victoria University of Technology and La Trobe University. Theproject establishes a database of national social science surveys of household unit record files of data undertakenbetween 1984 and 1998 on economic, social and political variables with emphasis on the labour market and onattitudes, starting from a base of existing efforts within the collaborating institutions. It pools ten large, nationallyrepresentative samples of Australians (over 22,000 cases) from the International Social Science Surveys/Australia withover 300 variables.

The resulting database will enable the development of more effective comparisons through time and overhousehold types by establishing concordances of classifications of economic, social and political variables, again,starting from existing work in the collaborating institutions.

Also funded primarily by the ARC, work commenced on the development of an InternationalEconomic and Social Unit-Record Database (IESUD). This is also a University of Melbourneproject with support from the University of Tasmania, Victoria University of Technology, La TrobeUniversity, Monash University, Curtin University, Swinburne University and the ARC.

This project enhances the database described above by adding exactly comparable data fromlarge, representative national samples of Britain and the USA (over 25,000 cases for both Britainand the USA). They include variables corresponding to the great majority of those available in theAustralian data. Second the project adds exactly comparable data for Bulgaria, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands, andPoland from the International Survey of Economic Attitudes.

Australian Social Monitor

Four issues of the Australian Social Monitor were released in 2000. The journal monitors andanalyses important social trends and attitudes, using data from various household surveys.

International Reform Monitor

The Melbourne Institute is the Australian partner in an international forum for the discussion ofinteresting and current reforms in the fields of social policy, labour market policy and industrialrelations. The forum is run by the Bertelsmann Foundation and provides the opportunity forinternational comparisons of experience and knowledge in social policy.

There are fifteen members of the forum, all from developed countries in Western Europe and the Pacific rim. Eachcountry details current reforms in the areas above twice a year. The reforms are compiled into a non-technicalmonograph aimed at a broad audience of policy makers, academics, public servants, business people and otherinterested persons. The publication is distributed within the member countries and is also available on the web atwww.reform-monitor.org. It has proved to be a valuable means of comparing social policy in the member countrieswith over 50,000 visits to the web site.

Dr Jonathan Kelley

Dr Mariah Evans

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Members provide two reports each year on policy reforms within their country. The groupmeets each year in to discuss the development of the project and to present findings on particularissues. David Johnson attended the 2000 meeting held in Berlin. In 2000 the Reform Monitormembers also provided information on an additional topic, retirement funding. The issue wasdiscussed at the annual meeting of the group.

Economics of Education

Returns to Investment in Higher Education

A major project that continued in 2000 was an investigation of the returns to higher education. David Johnson andPeter Dawkins of the Melbourne Institute worked with Jeff Borland of the Economics Department and Ross Williams,Dean of the Faculty of Economics and Commerce to measure private social and government returns from investmentin higher education. The project was sponsored by the Vice-Chancellor at the University of Melbourne.

The report found that higher education remains a good investment with the average Australian graduate earningalmost $300,000 more over their lifetime than people who finish their education at the end of Year 12. The addedincome for graduates is calculated after costs such as lost income from being out of the workforce, HECS, and directcharges for books, have been taken out. This is equivalent to a 15% rate of return, making it a very good investment.The Melbourne Institute report, “Returns to Investment in Higher Education”, also found the introduction of the HECSscheme, plus the taxation revenue on graduates’ higher incomes, means the government now makes a ‘profit’ on itsuniversity investment. That profit is currently around $2.7 billion annually – heading toward $4 billion by the end ofthe decade.

Economic Analysis in Relation to the Development of Higher Education Services in the Shepparton Area

David Johnson and Anne Leahy undertook this report for the Development Office of the University of Melbourne. Inthe first part the role of economics in helping define regional policy was reviewed. The review suggested that manyeconomic tools might be relevant but that care was required in their interpretation. The second part of the studyprovided a contemporary picture of the Goulburn region, its industries and people. The material on industrialstructure defined an economy with a strong focus on agricultural and its immediate downstream industries,processing and manufacturing plants. Finally the study suggested a range of ways of estimating demand for prospectivenew higher education courses in the Shepparton area focussing particularly on demand from local students andincluding the undertaking of surveys of prospective students and the setting up of focus groups and interviews withprospective employers of graduates of the proposed courses.

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Associate ProfessorDavid Johnson

Other Labour Market Research

Wage Flexibility

Yi-Ping Tseng and Elizabeth Webster completed a paper estimating major determinants of changeto an individuals earnings. Data was based on a survey of over 4000 individual householdersacross Australia. The relative importance of four types of factors: outside incomes, demand forlabour, workers’ relative bargaining strength and category of wage contract are compared. Basicindividual demographic characteristics (partial substitute variables for outside incomes) andsome indicators of workers’ bargaining power provided most of the explanation for wagechanges. Proxy variables for labour demand, while significant and correctly signed, were small inmagnitude. Information on workplace characteristics and the individual’s work history were notavailable.

Training for the Skilled Trades in Australia

This project by Elizabeth Webster and collaborators at the Centre for Labour Market Research examined trends inoccupational mismatch in the metal, building, vehicle and electrical trades and questioned whether the process ofaward restructuring which began in the late 1980s has created incentives for unskilled blue collar workers to pursueskill based career paths in the trades. In so doing, it also examined the reasons for high attrition rates by qualifiedworkers from their trade, as well as the motives behind employers’ decisions to hire unqualified workers to do tradework. The study found that despite the general level of dissatisfaction with trade employment, training pathways forsemi-and unskilled adults have become more prevalent since the early 1990s when the award restructuring processbegan. However, the numbers of people involved are small. There is reasonable evidence the structure and mode ofoperation of the trade training system has not been appropriate for the occupations it serves.

The Labour Market Effects of the Working Holiday Maker Scheme

This current research topic aims to estimate the effects on the Australian labour market of the existing WorkingHoliday Maker Scheme and to make some estimates of the effects of unilaterally extending the scheme to othercountries. Specifically, the issue of whether the scheme aggravates Australia’s unemployment problem, especially withrespect to youth, will be addressed.

The Equity Effects of Labour Market Programs

David Johnson and Elizabeth Webster presented comparative information on the types of people who benefit and losefrom the provision of labour market programs. They found that expenditure on labour market programs, as they wereconstructed under Working Nation, favours people with more disadvantaged work histories and lower householdincomes compared with an alternative of government spending on health and education.

Changes in Gender Wage Differentials in Taiwan

This study by Yi-Ping Tseng addresses the possible bias in the cross-sectional comparison of gender wage differentialover time. The approach based on cohort analysis is introduced to overcome the common problem in previousstudies. Using pseudo panel data constructed from 22 consecutive cross-sections, the study shows that cohort analysisprovides very different results from the results obtained by conventional methods.

Value of Fire Services

A report was undertaken for the Melbourne Fire and Emergency Services Board by David Johnson. This report wasconcerned with the valuation of the services provided by fire and emergency services in metropolitan Melbourne. Inparticular, it included interviewed studies of fire brigades and similar organisations in Australia and overseas;developed a framework for the evaluation of the roles, functions, and outcomes of the fire brigade; and inspected dataand assessed the feasibility of undertaking a quantitative evaluation of the costs and benefits of the fire brigade.

Dr Yi-Ping Tseng

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Enterprise Performance Research

In 2000, research in this part of the Institute was undertaken in three substantial projects, allbuilt around the core theme of enterprise performance.

The Performance of Australian Enterprises: ARC SPIRT Project

The performance of enterprises is afundamantal determinant of living standards.The project examines the determinants ofinnovation, productivity and profitability ofAustralian enterprises. Benchmarkperformance measures are also beingproduced against which Australian

enterprises can be assessed. Most of the anlaysis is based upondata from two major databases: the IBISWorld panel data set andthe ABS Business Longitudinal Survey.

This ARC project has been in collaboration with IBISWorld,the Victorian Department of State and Regional Development,Productivity Commission, Australian Taxation Office and theOffice of Small Business, DEWRSB.

Research staff have included Mark Rogers, Simon Feeny, Peter Dawkins, Joanne Loundes, Yi-Ping Tseng, MarkHarris, Harry Bloch, Ted McDonald, Derek Bosworth and Michael Harris. By the end of 2000, 20 working papers hadbeen produced and a further 11 were in production. Almost all of the working papers have been, or will be,published as chapters in books or as journal articles.

Research into Company Profit and Tax Performance

Simon Feeny, Mark Harris, and Joanne Loundes undertook company level ‘risk analysis’ for theAustralian Taxation Office. Their analysis identifies companies that are paying too much, or toolittle; tax given their other observed characteristics. Four research reports were completed during2000: Modelling and Benchmarking Profitability: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project; Modellingthe Dollar Profits of Australian Tax Entities: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project; Modelling theEffective Tax Rates of Australian Tax Entities: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Projectand Modelling Reconciliation Items: An ATO-Melbourne Institute Project.

Innovation in Large Companies

The Innovation Scoreboard continued to analyse the links between innovation and firmperformance using R&D expenditure and intellectual property data; that is, patents,trademarks and designs. The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000 was ableto present data on the innovative activities of large Australian firms over the last threeyears.

Our research showed that investment in R&D and intellectual property had strong linkswith the share market value of firms. The techniques used also enabled the compilation ofan innovation index for companies. This index was a weighted sum of R&D, patent,trademark and design activity where the weights were given by statistical analysis betweenthe activities and market value. The index, therefore, provided a method of assessingoverall innovative effort. The innovation index appeared in the Melbourne Institute’s R&Dand Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000. The Scoreboard is produced incollaboration with IP Australia and IBISWorld and was released during a Melbourne

Institute Business Economics Forum in November 2000.

Research team: Professor Peter Dawkins, Mr MichaelHarris, Dr Mark Harris, Professor Mark Wooden, Mr SimonFeeny, Dr Elizabeth Webster and Dr Yi-Ping Tseng

Ms Joanne LoundesANOTHER MEMBER OF THE

TEAM

Dr Elizabeth Webster,DIRECTOR OF THE

ENTERPRISE

PERFORMANCE RESEARCH

PROGRAM

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R&D and IntellectualProperty Scoreboard 2000

CONTRIBUTIONS TO POLICY ANALYSIS AND DEBATES

One of the Melbourne Institute’s strategic objectives was to contribute strongly to economic policy analysis, discussionand development in Australia. Examples of these contributions in 2000 included:

• The Institute was contracted by the Department of Family and Community Services to provide social policy researchservices over the next four years to the value of approximately $750,000 per year.

• Peter Dawkins was a member of the Welfare Reform Reference Group that released its final report in August.

• The Melbourne Institute hosted two seminars in February and May that were an official part of the Welfare Reviewprocess.

• The Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum and Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Aprilfocused on the Welfare Review and were very well attended. In June, the focus of the forums was on themacroeconomic outlook and, in October, on industrial relations reform. The Federal Minister and Shadow Ministerfor Industrial Relations were speakers as well as Professor Mark Wooden and Professor Ross Garnaut. The lastforums for the year in December were on the topic of innovation policy.

• David Johnson was a member of the Reference Group for the Review of the 8% Limit on Liquor Licence Holdings.

• Peter Dawkins presented a paper at the Reserve Bank’s annual conference in July on labour market developmentsin the 1990s.

• Mark Wooden contributed a chapter on industrial relations reform to a book edited by Peter Lloyd, JohnNieuwenhuysen and Margaret Mead, Creating an Environment for Australia’s Growth.

• Mark Wooden presented his inaugural lecture on industrial relations reform.

• Peter Dawkins contributed a chapter to the book, Welfare Reform in Australia, edited by Peter Saunders (AIFS).

• Peter Dawkins was part of a committee formed to run a conference on the economics of health and health policywith the aim of fostering a dialogue between health economists and mainstream economists.

• David Johnson is the Australian representative of the International Reform Monitor, sponsored by Bertelsmann,which is an international policy focussed research group concerned with economic and social reforms. In 2000,he attended the annual meeting in Berlin that dealt specifically with pension arrangements.

• Mark Wooden was a member of the External Reference Group for the Department of Immigration andMulticultural Affairs / CSIRO Future Scenarios Project.

• Mark Wooden appeared as an expert witness before both the Australian Industrial Relations on the casualemployment test case and the NSW Industrial Relations Commission in the Equal Remuneration Principle Test Case.

• The “Policy Forum” section of the Australian Economic Review provides a major avenue for contribution topolicy debate on economic matters. In 2000 there were three policy forums on “Merger Policy in Australia”,“Population Policy” and “Welfare for Indigenous Australians”.

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The Sunday Age, 31 January 2000

Is ‘big’ good for a nation?On the results of How Big Business Performs: Private Performance andPublic Policy, edited by Peter Dawkins, Michael Harris and Stephen King

The Australian, 26 January 2000

Family must be at the heart of the welfare policyOn Rosanna Scutella’s research into the economic influences on married women who return tothe workforce

The Australian Financial Review, 26 April 2000

Participation can pay in welfare reformPeter Dawkins on the Welfare Reform Interim Report

The Australian Financial Review, 15 December 2000

Slower growth expected to curb inflationOn the findings of Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Inflationary Expectations

The Australian, 26 July 2000

Degrees earn top rewards all aroundPeter Dawkins on the higher education report

UniNews, 7 August 2000

Hard head, soft heart, win FaCS contractOn the Institute’s selection to conduct strategic social policy research for theDepartment of Family and Community Services

The Age, 13 August 2000

Consumers surprise with positive mind-setResults of Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment afterthe introduction of the GST

The Australian Financial Review, 15 August 2000

To press on with IR reform may be saferExtracts of Mark Wooden’s inaugural lecture on industrial relations reform

The Australian Financial Review, 22 November 2000

Reform aims for greater benefitPeter Dawkins on increasing work benefits to assist unemployed back to work

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In 2000, the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum in Melbournecontinued to generate considerable interest. Membership held steady at 25members.

The four quarterly forums were well attended. Mr Tony Cole was the Chairmanof all but for one forum when Mr Phil Ruthven, another member of the Institute’sAdvisory Board, was the Guest Chairman. Breakfasts were held on 6 April, 15 Juneand 13 October, as well as a luncheon on 21 November, at the Hotel Sofitel, GrandHyatt or Le Meridien at Rialto in Melbourne. At each forum, the MelbourneInstitute’s forecasts were presented and discussed, and special topics werecanvassed such as welfare reform, macroeconomic outlook, industrial relations,innovation and R&D. As well as Melbourne Institute researchers, a number ofexternal commentators were involved in the forums. These included ProfessorDerek Bosworth (Manchester School of Management), Mr Paul Braddick (ANZ),Mr Bill Evans (Westpac), Professor Ross Garnaut AO (ANU), Mr Rick Gould (IPAustralia), Dr Rod Maddock (Business Council of Australia) Ms Elizabeth Morgan (Morgan, Disney and Associates),Mr Michael Raper (ACOSS) and The Hon Peter Reith MP.

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE BUSINESS ECONOMICS FORUM

Dr Peter Summers delivering thequarterly forecasts

Mr Don Harding speaking about retail sales at quarterly breakfast 2/00 on the macroeconomicoutlook

Mr Tony Cole, Chairman Mr Phil Ruthven, Guest Chairman

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Members of the Melbourne Institute Business Economics Forum

GoldAustralia PostBusiness Council of AustraliaCity of MelbourneDepartment of Premier and CabinetDepartment of State and Regional DevelopmentDepartment of Treasury and FinanceGeneral Motors - Holdens AutomotiveMercantile MutualReserve Bank of AustraliaFaculty of Economics and Commerce,

The University of MelbourneVictorian Workcover AuthorityWestpac Banking CorporationWilliam M. Mercer

In 2001, as outlined in the above section "Outlook for 2001and 2002", we will commence the Melbourne InstituteBusiness Economics Forum in Sydney.

Western Australian Business Economics Forum in Perth (joint venture with IRIC, Curtin University of Technology)

Australia PostBankWestCCD AustraliaCity of PerthCurtin Business School, Curtin University of TechnologyDepartment of Land AdministrationDepartment of Productivity and Labour RelationsDepartment of Resources and DevelopmentEvans and TateGraduate School of BusinessJohn Coombes and Co

AssociateANZ Banking GroupCEDAIBIS Business InformationNational Competition CouncilNational Institute of AccountantsProductivity CommissionShell AustraliaUrban Land Corporation

IndividualAnsett AustraliaChildrens’ Welfare Association of VictoriaCounty Investment ManagementCPA AustraliaInstitute for Private Enterprise

Professor Peter Dawkins, Ms Elizabeth Morgan and Mr Michael Raper at quarterly breakfast 1/00 on welfare reform

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LandcorpLeader of the Opposition, West Australian ParliamentLotteries Western AustraliaOffice Gas Access RegulationReserve Bank of AustraliaWA Treasury DepartmentWestern Power CorporationWestralia Airports CorporationWoodside Energy

In 2000 the Melbourne Institute Public Economics Forum in Canberra continued into its second year and generatedconsiderable interest. Membership increased from 9 members in 1999 to 17 members in 2000.

The four quarterly forums were well attended. Mr Ted Evans chaired these forums until his retirement as Secretaryof the Treasury in 2001 when the new Secretary of the Treasury, Dr Ken Henry, took the chair. Luncheons were heldon 11 April, 13 June, 10 October and 28 November at Parliament House, Old Parliament House and the Hyatt HotelCanberra. At each luncheon, the Melbourne Institute’s news was presented, and special topics were canvassed such aswelfare reform, macroeconomic outlook, industrial relations, innovation and R&D. In addition to Melbourne Instituteresearchers, guest speakers included Mr Gary Banks (Productivity Commission), The Hon Arch Bevis MP, Mr BillEvans (Westpac), Professor Ross Garnaut AO (ANU), Mr Ian Heath (IP Australia), Dr Rod Maddock (Business Councilof Australia), Mr Patrick McClure (Mission Australia), Ms Elizabeth Morgan (Morgan, Disney and Associates), DrMike Nahan (Institute of Public Affairs), Mr Mark Paterson (Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry), MrMichael Raper (ACOSS) and Mr Chris Richardson (Access Economics).

Members

GoldAustralian Taxation OfficeDepartment of Family and Community ServicesDepartment of Health and Aged CareDepartment of Industry, Science and ResourcesDepartment of the Parliamentary LibraryMedibank Private

AssociateAustralian Bureau of StatisticsBureau of Transport Economics Department of Finance and AdministrationProductivity CommissionPublic Service and Merit Protection Commission

IndividualAustralian Bureau of StatisticsDepartment of Employment, Workplace Relations and Small

BusinessDepartment of the Parliamentary ReportingDepartment of Treasury and InfrastructureNew Zealand High CommissionQueensland Investment Corporation

MELBOURNE INSTITUTE PUBLIC ECONOMICS FORUM

Dr Michael Keating AC,CO-CHAIRMAN

Mr Ted Evans AC,CO-CHAIRMAN UNTIL HIS RETIREMENT

AS SECRETARY OF THE TREASURY

Mr Tony Cole, CO-CHAIRMAN

Professor Peter Dawkins, Dr Mike Nahan, Dr Rod Maddock, MrMichael Keating AC, Mr Gary Banks and Mr Ian Heath atquarterly luncheon 4/00 on innovation policy

Quarterly luncheon 3/00 on industrial relations reform

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TWO DAY CONFERENCE ON WELFARE REFORM

In 2000, Peter Dawkins was appointed a member of the Reference Group on Welfare Reform, established by theMinister for Family and Community Services, Senator Jocelyn Newman MP. In the course of the work of the ReferenceGroup, the Melbourne Institute hosted two seminars to discuss relevant issues with a range of academics as well asexperts from government, business and thecommunity sector, and featured the topic ofwelfare reform in its Melbourne InstituteBusiness Economics Forums and MelbourneInstitute Public Economics Forums. OnThursday 9 – Friday 10 November 2000, thework culminated in a major, two dayconference jointly hosted with the Departmentof Family and Community Services.

The aims of the conference were to:• Facilitate participants’ understanding of the

reforms proposed by the report;• Provide a US, UK, NZ and OECD perspective

on welfare reform and the subsequentlessons for Australia;

• Provide interested parties with a forum todiscuss and debate both the findings andrecommendations of the report and issues surrounding welfare reform more generally.

The sessions of the conferencecovered the following topics:• The Welfare Reform Reference

Group’s Final Report• Welfare Reform: International

Evidence• Welfare to Work: Evidence on

Policies Aiming to IncreaseWork Incentives in Britain andNew Zealand

• Panel Discussion of Day Onewith Special Reference to theImplications for Australia

• Welfare to Work: Options forReforming the Income SupportSystem in Australia

• Mutual Obligation• Outlook of The Minister for Family and Community Services• Service Delivery Issues and Social Partnerships• Outlook of The Shadow Minister for Family and Community Services

The second day concluded with a panel discussion of the future directions for welfare reform.

Conference proceedings in progress

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International speakers: Mr Peter Scherer of the OECD, Mr David Butler of the ManpowerDemonstration Research Corporation, Mr David Kalisch of the Department of Family andCommunity Services and Professor Bob Goodin of the Australian National University

The Melbourne Institute’s researchers were joined by members of the Reference Group on Welfare Reform andother international experts on welfare reform from the OECD, the US, UK and New Zealand and a number ofprominent Australian academics and representatives of business and the community sector. Speakers and discussantsincluded: Dr Bruce Bradbury (UNSW)Mr David Butler (Manpower Demonstration Research Corporation)Professor Peter Dawkins (The University of Melbourne) Professor Alan Duncan (University of Nottingham) Father Nic Frances (Brotherhood of St Laurence) Professor Bob Goodin (ANU) Professor Bob Gregory (ANU) Mr David Kalisch (Department of Family and Community Services) Senator Meg Lees MP (Leader of the Australian Democrats) Professor Mark Lyons (University of Technology, Sydney) Dr Rod Maddock (Business Council of Australia) Associate Professor Tim Maloney (University of Auckland) Associate Professor Alison McClelland (La Trobe University) Mr Patrick McClure (Mission Australia) Ms Elizabeth Morgan (Morgan, Disney and Associates) Senator Jocelyn Newman MP (Minister for Family and Community

Services)Mr Michael Raper (ACOSS) Professor Peter Saunders (UNSW) Mr Peter Scherer (OECD) Professor Judith Sloan (Productivity Commission) Mr Ian Spicer (National Disability Advisory Council)Ms Dahle Suggett (Allen Consulting Group) Mr Wayne Swan MP (Shadow Minister for Family and Community

Services) Mr David Thompson (Jobs Australia)Professor Anna Yeatman (Macquarie University)

A large delegation of 380 people attended at the conference, representing various interested organisations fromnon-profit, government and business sectors. The papers presented at the conference were placed on the MelbourneInstitute’s website and the topic was further addressed in a “Policy Forum” of the Australian Economic Review in2001.

Senator Jocelyn Newman MP speaking at the welfarereform conference as the Minister for Family andCommunity Services

Mr Wayne Swan MP, Shadow Minister for Family andCommunity Services, was a speaker at the conferencealso

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PUBLICATIONS BY SUBSCRIPTION

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social JournalsAustralian Economic Review in 2000

Articles and Submissions

The format of the Australian Economic Review continued with the style that has beendeveloped over recent years: the ‘Contributed Articles’ section continued to attract a strongrate of submission; ‘Policy Forums’ were published in three issues in 2000, and included‘Merger Policy in Australia’, ‘Population Policy’, and ‘Welfare for Indigenous Australians’.Each issue contained a ‘For the Student’ article: ‘Property Rights and the Impact onResource Allocation and Welfare: A Diagrammatic Exposition’, ‘Lessons from the MarketPlace for Health and Human Services’, ‘Movements over Time in the Unemployment Rate inAustralia’, and ‘Basic Game Theory’. Each issue included a ‘Data Survey’ article: ‘TheBusiness Longitudinal Survey’, ‘Regional Capital Stock Data for Australia’, ‘Dating Changes inMonetary Policy in Australia’, and ‘The Papua New Guinea Household Survey’.

In 2000, the Review published 39 articles; 41 articles were published in 1999. The size ofthe Review remained much the same with a total of 387 pages, similar to the 422 pages in1999. In Table 1 we show the distribution of articles by type for the last five years.

In 2000 we received 40 submissions in the Contributed Articles section, less than the previous year’s 54submissions. Table 2 shows the number of submissions for the last five years. The acceptance rate for papers thathave been published has been 35 per cent over the past five years (papers published as a percentage of submissions).

The Australian EconomicReview

Table 1: Published Articles in 1996, 1997, 1998 1999 and 2000

Type of Article 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Invited Articles 2 0 0 1 1Contributed Articles 13 18 16 15 17Policy Forum 15 19 19 19 13Data Surveys 5 3 2 2 4For the Student 4 4 4 4 4Pages 472 466 444 422 387

Table 2: Submissions in 1996, 1997, 1998 1999 and 2000*

Papers 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Brought forward from previous year** 22 23 31 29 37

Submissions during year 36 58 38 54 4058 81 69 83 77

Decisions madeAccepted: Published 13 18 16 15 17Accepted: In queue 3 4 3 3 2Rejected/withdrawn 22 32 24 31 30Resubmit 16 15 11 12 11In process 4 12 15 22 17

58 81 69 83 77

*Contributed articles only**Sum of acceptances in queue, resubmissions and articles in process

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Australian Social Monitor

The Australian Social Monitor aims to monitor and analyse important social trends andattitudes. The Australian Social Monitor is published with support from the InternationalSocial Science Surveys/Australia and ANUTECH at the Australian National University.Between us several important social and economic surveys are conducted. These includethe IsssA which is Australia’s leading academic survey and co-founder of the 34-nationInternational Social Survey Programme.

Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends

The Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends is sponsoredby William M. Mercer Pty Ltd and provides an authoritative analysis of international,national and state economic environments with a particular focus on the state economiesand on reading the business cycle. In addition, each issue covers a special topicconsidered to be of particular interest. The special topics covered in 2000 includedlabour market issues in welfare reform, international economic indicators, industrialrelations reform and innovations in Australian enterprises.

Melbourne Institute Economic and Social Indicators

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity

Published monthly the Westpac – Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activityexamines movements in leading, coincident and lagging indicators of economic activity inAustralian, together with comparative data from overseas. It also includes a quarterlyleading index of inflation. Indices of economic activity are designed to enhance thedecision making process of financial and business managers by anticipating andidentifying turning points in the economy. Each index blends several variables that reflectdifferent aspects of the economy; their combination is intended to give a morerepresentative picture than any one indicator would by itself.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment

The Consumer Sentiment Index is the average of five responses on consumers' evaluationof their household financial situation over the past year, the coming year and the next fiveyears, anticipations of economic conditions over the coming year and the next five yearsand a view on buying conditions for major household items, assessments of futureunemployment are also recorded. Each quarter, consumers are also surveyed on their views on buying conditions for cars and dwellings, the wisest place for savings andeconomic news recall. This report is produced monthly.

Westpac – Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (NSW, Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia)

Each quarter we present the same consumer sentiment data as in the Westpac –Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment (except news recall data) onconsumer sentiment for NSW, Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia.

Australian Social Monitor

Mercer – Melbourne InstituteQuarterly Bulletin ofEconomic Trends

Westpac – MelbourneInstitute Indexes ofEconomic Activity

Westpac – MelbourneInstitute Survey of ConsumerSentiment

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Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations

The Melbourne Institute Consumer Inflationary Expectations measures are designed torepresent the average householder’s expected rate of consumer price rises over thecoming twelve months. The survey is a direct measure of inflationary expectations asconsumers are surveyed on whether and by how much they believe prices will go up ordown. The report is produced monthly.

Poverty Lines: Australia

Poverty Lines: Australia is a quarterly newsletter that updates the "Henderson PovertyLine" as defined in the 1973 Commonwealth Commission of Inquiry into Poverty. ThePoverty Lines are standard reference material for those concerned with social welfarepolicy in Australia. The income levels of various sized families are used to ascertain whenand where a poverty situation occurs.

Melbourne Institute Wages Report

The Wages Survey records employees (self-reported) wage changes over the previoustwelve-month period. This survey has been designed to capture the growth in wage rates.The report is produced quarterly.

Other Melbourne Institute Publications produced in2000

The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000: Benchmarking Innovationin Australian Enterprises

This publication is the most comprehensive to date on the innovative activities of largeAustralian enterprises. It provides an invaluable information source for benchmarkingand competitor analysis. The innovative activities covered by the report contain the latestavailable information on the level of R&D and applications for intellectual property(patents, trademarks and designs). The report includes an innovation index, rankingAustralia’s most innovative firms, R&D expenditure and intensity for parent companies,the level and intensity of intellectual property applications (patents, trademarks anddesigns) for parent companies, and industry rankings (all measures combined). This isthe third report produced in this series.

Melbourne Institute Survey ofConsumer InflationaryExpectations

Melbourne Institute WagesReport

R&D and IntellectualProperty Scoreboard 2000

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STAFF PUBLICATIONS, SEMINARS, PRESENTATIONS ANDMEDIA COVERAGE

Staff Publications

Books, Monographs and Published Research Reports

Blandy, R., Dockery, M., Hawke, A. and Webster, E., “Does Training Pay? Evidence from Australian Enterprise”,Leabrook, National Centre for Vocational Education Research, 2000, 57pp.

Borland, J., Dawkins, P., Johnson, D.T. and Williams, R., “Returns to Investment in Higher Education”, The MelbourneEconomics of Higher Education Research Program, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and SocialResearch, 2000, 1: 56pp.

Feeny, S. and Rogers, M., “Recent Trends in the Innovative Activities of Large Australian Firms”, R&D and IntellectualProperty Scoreboard, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 2000):32pp.

Harding, G., “Life After Graduation: Our 1998 Graduates in 1999”, Life After Graduation, Melbourne, The Universityof Melbourne, 2000, (April): 84pp.

Harding, G., “Employer Feedback on Quality of University Graduates: Report for External Use and for SurveyParticipants”, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (March): 58pp.

Harding, G., “Employer Feedback on Quality of University Graduates: Executive Summary”, Melbourne, The Universityof Melbourne, 2000, (March): 6pp.

Johnson, D.J., Harris, M.N. and Scutella, R., “Participation and Employment Status of Persons of More Than MinimumFamily Payments”, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 2000, 40pp.

Wooden, M., The Transformation of Australian Industrial Relations, Sydney, Federation Press, 2000, 238+xvpp.

Contributions to Books

Dawkins, P., “Is a Five Per Cent Unemployment Rate Target Achievable for Australia and How?” in J. Mangan ed.,Understanding and Reducing Unemployment, Brisbane, Queensland Treasury, 2000, pp159-174.

Dawkins, P., “Labour Market Issues in Welfare Reform”, in P. Saunders ed., Reforming the Australian Welfare State,Melbourne, Australian Institute of Family Studies, 2000, pp224-249.

Harding, D. and Pagan, A., “Knowing the Cycle”, in R.E. Backhouse and Salanti, A. ed., Macroeconomics and theReal World, New York, Oxford University Press, 2000, pp23-41.

Johnson, D.T., “Australia - Has it Weathered the Crisis?”, in T. Van Hoa ed., The Social Impact of the Asian FinancialCrisis, London, Palgrave, 2000, pp123-137.

Summers, P.M., “The Asian Crisis and Australia’s Export Sector”, in T. Van Hoa ed., The Social Impact of the AsianFinancial Crisis, London, Palgrave, 2000, pp139-155.

Webster, E., “What Role for Labour Market Programs?”, in S. Bell ed., The Unemployment Crisis in Australia. WhichWay Out?, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 2000, pp234-251.

Wooden, M. and VandenHervel, A., “Diversity in Employment Arrangements”, in J. Mangan ed., Understanding andReducing Employment: a National and State Perspective, Brisbane, Queensland Government Press, 2000,pp69-84.

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Refereed Journal Articles

Bakker, A. and Creedy, J., “Macroeconomic Variables and Income Distribution Conditional Modelling with theGeneralised Exponential”, Journal of Income Distribution, North Holland, Elsevier Science, 2000, 9: 183-197.

Creedy, J., “Measuring Welfare Changes and the Excess Burden of Taxation”, Bulletin of Economic Research, Oxford,Blackwell, 2000, 52(1): 1-47.

Creedy, J., “Evaluating Income Tax Changes Using Cross-Sectional and Lifetime Income”, Hacienda Publica Espanola,Madrid, Institute of Financial Studies, 2000, 152(1): 29-38.

Creedy, J., “The Growth of Social Expenditure and Population Ageing”, Economic Papers, Melbourne, EconomicSociety of Australia, 2000, 19(4): 15-32.

Creedy, J. and Dixon, R., “Relative Welfare Losses and Imperfect Competition in New Zealand”, New ZealandEconomic Papers, New Zealand, The New Zealand Association of Economists, 2000, 34(2): 269-286.

Creedy, J. and Martin, C., “Carbon Taxation, Fuel Substitution and Welfare in Australia”, The Australian EconomicReview, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 33(1): 32-48.

Creedy, J. and Van de ven, J., “Retirement Incomes: Private Savings Versus Social Transfers”, The Manchester School,Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 68(5): 539-551.

Cully, M., VandenHeuvel, A., Curtain, R. and Wooden, M., “Participation in, and Barriers to, Training: the Experienceof Older Australians”, Australasian Journal on Ageing, Melbourne, Council on Ageing, 2000, 19(4): 172-179.

Evans, M.D.R., “Danger on the Job?”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economicand Social Research, 2000, 2(6): 147.

Evans, M.D.R., “Informal Job Training: How Many Take Courses and Who Are They?”, Australian Social Monitor,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 58-60.

Evans, M.D.R., “Smoking, Sex and Class”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of AppliedEconomic and Social Research, 2000, 2(6): 125-133.

Evans, M.D.R., “Women’s Participation in the Labour Force: Ideals and Behaviour”, Australian Social Monitor,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 49-57.

Evans, M.D.R. and Kelley, J., “Charity Work: International Differences and Australian Trends”, Australian SocialMonitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 1(3): 15-23.

Evans, M.D.R. and Kelley, J., “Cultural Resources and Educational Success: the Beaux Arts Versus Scholarly Culture”,Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2):41-48.

Evans, M.D.R. and Kelley, J., “Does Mothers’ Employment Affect Children’s Education?”, Australian Social Monitor,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 1(3): 6-14.

Evans, M.D.R., Kelley, J. and Hayes, B.C., “Family Values and Labor Force Participation: Ireland in InternationalPerspective”, Gender Issues, 2000, 18(1): 51-87.

Feeny, S. and Rogers, M., “Market Share and Concentration in Firm Profitability: Implications for Competition Policy”,Economic Analysis and Policy, St Lucia, Economic Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2000, 30(2): 115-132.

Fisher, L.A., Huh, H. and Summers, P.M., “Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: aGeneralization”, Journal of Macroeconomics, Louisiana, Louisiana State University Press, 2000, 22(1): 53-68.

Harris, M.N. and Matyas, L., “Performance of the Operational Wansbeek-Bekker Estimator for Dynamic Panel DataModels”, Applied Economics Letters, London, Routledge, 2000, 7(3): 149-153.

Henry, O.T. and Summers, P.M., “Australian Economic Growth: Nonlinearities and International Influences”, TheEconomic Record, Melbourne, Economic Society of Australia, 2000, 76(235): 365-373.

Jensen, B. and Littler, C., “Downsizing in Australia”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute ofApplied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 2(6): 134-138.

Jensen, B. and Seltzer, A., “Neighbourhood and Family Effects in Educational Progress”, The Australian EconomicReview, Oxford, Blackwell, 2000, 33(1): 17-31.

Johnson, D.T., “GST: the Give Some Time Tax”, Australian Quarterly, Balmain, The Australian Institute of PoliticalScience, 2000, 72(3): 10-11.

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Kelley, J., “Equal Opportunities or Equal Outcomes?”, Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute ofApplied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2): 36-40.

Kelley, J. and Evans, M.D.R., “Changing Attitudes Towards Trade Unions in Australia: 1984-1999”, Australian SocialMonitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(1): 1-5.

Kelley, J. and Evans, M.D.R., “Attitudes Towards Trade Unions: Sources of Support and Opposition in Australia”,Australian Social Monitor, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 3(2):29-35.

VandenHeuvel, A. and Wooden, M., “Immigrants’ Labour Market Experience in the Early Settlement Years”,Australian Bulletin of Labour, Adelaide, National Institute of Labour Studies, 2000, 26(1): 59-69.

Webster, E., “The Growth of Intangible Enterprise Investment in Australia”, Information Economics and Policy,Amsterdam, Elsevier, 2000, 12(1): 1-25.

Webster, E. and Summers, P.M., “The Effect of Labour Market Programs on Wage Inflation”, Journal of IndustrialRelations, Sydney, University of Sydney, 2000, 42(3): 383-397.

Wooden, M., “Diversity in Employment Arrangements”, Queensland Economic Review, Brisbane, QueenslandTreasury, 2000, (3): 16-19.

Wooden, M., “The Changing Skill Composition of Labour Demand”, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Adelaide, NationalInstitute of Labour Studies, 2000, 26(3): 191-198.

Wooden, M. and Hawke, A., “Unions and Employment Growth: Panel Data Evidence”, Industrial Relations: a Journalof Economy and Society, Malden, Blackwell, 2000, 39(1): 88-107.

Other Journal Articles

Dawkins, P., “Special Topic: Labour Market Issues in Welfare Reform”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute QuarterlyBulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000,00(1): 14-27.

Feeny, S., “The R&D and Intellectual Property Scoreboard 2000: Benchmarking Innovation in Australian Enterprises”,Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of AppliedEconomic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 15-16.

Harding, D., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville,Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): iii-iv.

Harding, D., “Evaluation of Melbourne Institute Forecasts”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin ofEconomic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 15-17.

Harding, D., “Spotlight on Exchange Rates”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 21-28.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Australia: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin ofEconomic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 1-12.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletinof Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 10-12.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletinof Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 18-22.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “International Economic Indicators”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin ofEconomic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 7-9.

Harding, D. and Huh, H., “United States”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 13-14.

Harding, D. and Summers, P., “Australia: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletinof Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 1-6.

Harding, D. and Summers, P.M., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1): iii-iv.

Harding, D. and Summers, P.M., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends,Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): iii-iv.

Huh, H., “International Economic Indicators”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of EconomicTrends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 23-26.

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Leahy, A. and Summers, P.M., “Australia: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletinof Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 1-5.

Leahy, A. and Summers, P.M., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute QuarterlyBulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000,00(4): 8-14.

Leahy, A. and Summers, P.M., “United States”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of EconomicTrends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): 6-7.

Summers, P.M., “Editorial”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville,Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(4): iii-iv.

Summers, P.M., “Forecasts for the States and Territories”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin ofEconomic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(3): 7-13.

Summers, P.M., “Potential Effects of the GST and their Implications for Monetary Policy”, Econochat, Melbourne, TheUniversity of Melbourne, 2000, (14): 5-9.

Summers, P.M., Harding, D. and Huh, H., “Australia and the United States: Outcomes and Outlook”, Mercer –Melbourne Institute Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economicand Social Research, 2000, 00(1): 1-6.

Wooden, M., “How Healthy is the Labour Market?”, CEDA Bulletin, Melbourne, CEDA, 2000, (October): 72.Wooden, M., “Industrial Relations Reform: Do the Critics Have a Case?”, Review, Melbourne, The Institute of Public

Affairs, 2000, 52(3): 14-15.Wooden, M., “The Labour Market in 1999: the Year in Review”, Australian Bulletin of Labour, Adelaide, National

Institute of Labour Studies, 2000, 26(1): 3-10.Wooden, M., “Special Topic: Industrial Relations Reform - the Unfinished Agenda”, Mercer – Melbourne Institute

Quarterly Bulletin of Economic Trends, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research,2000, 00(3): 14-20.

Conference Proceedings

Creedy, J. and Duncan, A., “Behavioural Microsimulation Methods for Policy Analysis”, paper presented at “Taxes,Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What Can Microsimulation Tell Us?” Conference, Dublin, 14 December1998, in T. Callan ed., Taxes, Transfers and Labour Market Responses: What Can Microsimulation Tell Us?,Dublin, The Economic and Social Research Institute, 2000, pp23-58.

Dawkins, P., “The Australian Labour Market in the 1990s”, in D. Gruen and Shrestha, S. ed., The Australian Economyin the 1990s, Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia, 2000, pp316-360.

Johnson, D.T., “Discussant”, paper presented at “Achieving Better Regulation of Services” Conference, Canberra, 26-27 June 2000, in G. Banks and Findlay, C. ed., Achieving Better Regulation of Services, Canberra, AusInfo, 2000,pp278-284.

Working Papers, Indicator Reports and Unpublished ReportsAlexander, G., Nix, T., Dawkins, P., Summers, P. and Loundes, J., “Retail Probe”, Sydney, Idea Works, 2000, (February,

May, August, November): 42pp.Chotikapanich, D. and Creedy, J., “Bayesian estimation of social welfare and tax progressivity measures”, The

University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne,2000, (751), 21pp.

Chotikapanich, D. and Creedy, J., “Bayesian estimation of Atkinson inequality measures”, The University of Melbourne,Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (766), 21pp.

Creedy, J., “Starting research”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne,The University of Melbourne, 2000, (757), 16pp.

Creedy, J., “TaxTrans: computer assisted learning software for the analysis of taxes and transfers in general and partialequilibrium”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, The Universityof Melbourne, 2000, (762), 37pp.

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Creedy, J., “Exact Welfare Measurement Using Mashallian Demand Functions”, The University of Melbourne,Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (756): 22pp.

Creedy, J., “Labour Supply and Welfare with Piecewise Linear Budget Constraints: an Introduction”, The University ofMelbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (755): 28pp.

Creedy, J., “Tax Models and Their Uses”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper,Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (747): 30pp.

Creedy, J., Duncan, A., Harris, M.N. and Scutella, R., “Wage Functions: Australian Estimates Using the IncomeDistribution Survey”, The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, TheUniversity of Melbourne, 2000, (761): 24pp.

Creedy, J. and Scutella, R., “Means-Tested Benefits, Incentives and Earnings Distribution”, The University of Melbourne,Department of Economics, Research Paper, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2000, (752): 26pp.

Creedy, J. and Wurzbacher, A.D., “The economic value of a forested catchment with timber, water and carbonsequestration benefits” The University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Research Paper, Melbourne, TheUniversity of Melbourne, 2000, (753), 27pp.

Dawkins, P., Lambert, S., Dixon, P. and Rimmer, M., “A Wage-Tax Trade-Off to Reduce Employment”, New Directions,Melbourne, Business Council of Australia, 2000, (4): 66pp.

Feeny, S., “Determinants of Profitability: An Empirical Investigation Using Australian Tax Entities”, Melbourne InstituteWorking Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(1):32pp.

Feeny, S., Harris, M.N. and Loundes, J., “A Dynamic Panel Analysis of the Profitability of Australian Tax Entities”,Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and SocialResearch, 2000, 00(22): 26pp.

Fry, T.R.L. and Harris, M.N., “A Model for Ordered Data with Clustering of Observations”, Melbourne Institute WorkingPaper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(2): 30pp.

Harding, D., “Mercantile Mutual - Melbourne Institute Household Saving Report”, Melbourne, Mercantile Mutual,2000, (March): 15pp.

Harding, D., “Monitoring the GST”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000,(September, October): 34pp.

Harding, D. and Hammill, M., “Mercantile Mutual - Melbourne Institute Household Saving Report”, Melbourne,Mercantile Mutual, 2000, (June, September, December): 16pp.

Harding, D. and Hammill, M., “Monitoring the GST”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and SocialResearch, 2000, (May, June, July, August): 32pp.

Harding, D. and Leahy, A., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity”, Parkville, MelbourneInstitute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (184-186): 15pp.

Harris, M.N. and Feeny, S., “Habit Persistence in Effective Tax Rates: Evidence Using Australian Tax Entities”,Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and SocialResearch, 2000, 00(13): 23pp.

Harris, M.N., Koonya, L. and Matyas, L., “Modelling the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Bilateral Trade Flows:OECD, 1990-1996”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economicand Social Research, 2000, 00(11): 22pp.

Harris, M.N., Macquarie, L.R. and Siecles, A.J., “A Comparison of Alternative Estimators for Binary Panel ProbityModels”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and SocialResearch, 2000, 00(3): 28pp.

Huh, H., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Indexes of Economic Activity”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of AppliedEconomic and Social Research, 2000, (175-183): 28pp.

Johnson, D.J., “Poverty Lines: Australia”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research,2000, (March, June, September, December): 4pp.

Knights, S., Harris, M.N. and Loundes, J., “Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity andState Dependence”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economicand Social Research, 2000, 00(6): 28pp.

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Leahy, A., “Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Inflationary Expectations”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute ofApplied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (January-December): 3pp.

Leahy, A., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment NSW, Victoria, Queensland, WesternAustralia”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, (March, June,September, December): 11pp.

Leahy, A., “Westpac - Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of AppliedEconomic and Social Research, 2000, (January-December): 4pp.

Lofts, C. and Loundes, J., “Foreign Ownership, Foreign Competition and Innovation in Australian Enterprises”,Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and SocialResearch, 2000, 00(20): 17pp.

Loundes, J., “Management and Industrial Relations Practices and Outcomes in Australian Workplaces”, MelbourneInstitute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000,00(12): 26pp.

Loundes, J. and Scutella, R., “Consumer Sentiment and Australian Consumer Spending”, Melbourne Institute WorkingPaper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(21): 18pp.

Matyas, L., Koonya, L. and Harris, M.N., “Modelling Export Activity of Eleven APEC Countries”, Melbourne InstituteWorking Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(5):18pp.

Rogers, M. and Tseng, Y., “Analysing Firm-Level Labour Productivity Using Survey Data”, Melbourne Institute WorkingPaper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(10): 22pp.

Summers, P.M., “Labour Market Analysis with VAR Models”, Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series, Parkville,Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(19): 19pp.

Tseng, Y., “Melbourne Institute Wages Report: Quarterly Report”, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economicand Social Research, 2000, (February, May, August, November): 8pp.

Webster, E., “The Effects of Wages on Aggregate Employment: A Brief Summary of Empirical Studies”, MelbourneInstitute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000,00(14): 20pp.

Webster, E. and Harding, G., “Outsourcing Public Employment Services: The Australian Experience”, MelbourneInstitute Working Paper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000,00(4): 36pp.

Webster, E. and Tseng, Y., “The Determinants of Relative Wage Change in Australia”, Melbourne Institute WorkingPaper Series, Parkville, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2000, 00(23): 36pp.

Staff Seminars and Presentations

Dawkins, P., “Options for Reforming the Income Support System in Australia”, paper presented at the “WelfareReform” conference, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 10 November 2000.

Dawkins, P., “Repeated Spells on Benefits: An Analysis of ‘Churning’ Using the FaCS Longitudinal Administrative DataSet”, paper presented at the "Panel Data and Policy" conference, Canberra, Department of Family and CommunityServices, 3 May 2000.

Dawkins, P., “The Australian Labour Market in the 1990s”, paper presented at “the Australian Economy in the 1990s”conference, Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia, 24-25 July 2000.

Dawkins, P., “Measuring the Success of Social Policy the Case of Welfare Reform”, paper presented at Social Policyseminar, Melbourne, Institute of Public Administration (Victorian Division), 18 October 2000.

Duncan, A., “Employment Incentives and In-Work Benefits in the United Kingdom”, paper presented at the “WelfareReform” conference, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 9 November 2000.

Feeny, S., “The Effective Tax Rate of Entities in the Motor Vehicle Industry”, project seminar for the Australian TaxationOffice, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 2 November 2000.

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Harding, D., “Synchronization of Cycles”, paper presented at the “Growth and Business Cycles in Theory and Practice”conference, Manchester, University of Manchester, 7 July 2000.

Harding, D., “Synchronization of Cycles”, paper presented at the “Macroeconomic Workshop”, Brisbane, University ofQueensland, 27 April 2000.

Harding, D., “Synchronization of Cycles”, paper presented at the “The Twentieth International Symposium onForecasting” conference, Lisbon, ISF, 22 June 2000.

Harding, D., “Dissecting the Cycle”, paper presented at the “World Congress of the Econometric Society” conference,Washington, Econometric Society, 11 August 2000.

Harris, M.N., “A Model for Ordered Data with Clustering of Observations”, paper presented at the Economics SeminarSeries, Bundoora, La Trobe University, 1 September 2000.

Harris, M.N., “A Model for Ordered Data with Clustering of Observations”, paper presented at the Economic SeminarSeries, Budapest, Hungary, Central European University, 13 October 2000.

Harris, M.N., “The Econometrics of Gravity Models”, paper presented at the Ninth International Conference on PanelData, Geneva, University of Geneva, 23 June 2000.

Johnson, D.T., “Participation and Claimant Status of Persons on More Than Minimum Family Payment”, paperpresented at the Labour Market Research Workshop, Canberra, Department of Family and Community Services, 7 March 2000.

Johnson, D.T., “Discussant of ‘Regulating Gambling: a ‘Market Friendly’ Approach to the Social Impacts’ by GaryBanks”, response paper presented at the Regulation of Services Conference by the Productivity Commission,Canberra, Australian National University, 26-27 June 2000.

Sikora, J., “Are Perceptions of Efficiency Important Sources of Attitudes to Government Ownership? Evidence fromAustralia, Finland, Poland and Bulgaria 1994/1997”, presented at the “State and Society in Transition” Conferenceof the Australian Association for Study of Communist and Post-Communist Societies, Canberra, Australian NationalUniversity, 17 November 2000.

Tseng, Y., “Changes in the Gender Wage Differentials: Cross-sectional versus Cohort Analyses”, paper presented at theThird Labour Econometric Workshop, Hobart, University of Tasmania.

Webster, E., paper presented at the “Australian Labour Market Research Workshop 2000”, Sydney, University ofSydney, 7-8 December 2000.

Wooden, M., “The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey: an Overview”, paperpresented at the “Annual Conference of the Australian Sociological Association”, Adelaide, The Flinders Universityof South Australia, 6 December 2000.

Wooden, M., “The Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey: an Overview”, paperpresented at the “Australian Labour Market Research Workshop”, Sydney, University of Sydney, 7-8 December2000.

Wooden, M., “‘Unpaid’ Working Time and Labour Market Reform”, paper presented at the “ACCI Labour MarketReform Conference”, Melbourne, Hotel Sofitel, 3 March 2000.

Wooden, M., “Industrial Relations Reform in Australia: Causes, Consequences and Prospects”, inaugural professoriallecture, Parkville, The University of Melbourne, 14 August 2000.

Wooden, M., “Unpaid Working Time: Trends and Consequences”, presentation at the training program of theAustralasian Faculty of Occupational Medicine, Adelaide, 1 May 2000.

Wooden, M., “The Changing Labour Market and its Impact on Work and Employment Relations”, paper presented atthe Academy of Social Sciences of Australia Workshop on the Future of Work and Employment Relations, Universityof Sydney, 30 November-1 December 2000.

Wooden, M., Chairman of “Pattern Bargaining: The Case For and Against”, seminar of the Industrial Relations Societyof Victoria, Monash Conference Centre, Melbourne, 17 May 2000.

Wooden, M., member of panel at “Welfare Reform” seminar, The University of Melbourne, 16 May 2000.

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Media Coverage

188 references to the Melbourne Institute were identified in the print media and radio/television in 2000. MelbourneInstitute staff were reported or products cited in The Australian, The Australian Financial Review, The Age, TheSunday Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Daily Telegraph, The West Australian, Illawarra Mercury and variousradio and television stations.

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FINANCE AND PERFORMANCE INDICATORS

Table 3: Income and Expenditure of the Melbourne Institute 1996-2000

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

IncomeNon-University Funds made up of $1,105,576 $1,366,062 $1,742,783 $2,032,641 $2,299,358

Subscription Services $211,828 $277,838 $326,978 $376,613 $312,420Research Consultancies $610,183 $736,501 $728,057 $1,068,191 $1,282,342Grants $283,565 $351,723 $687,748 $587,837 $704,596

Faculty of EconomicsBase Grant $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $150,000 $150,000Other University Funds $224,499 $214,500 $218,390 $125,125 $188,426Total Income $1,530,075 $1,755,562 $2,111,173 $2,307,766 $2,637,784

ExpenditureSalaries $1,080,257 $1,179,267 $1,423,132 $1,482,567 $1,721,936Other Expenditure $387,178 $571,472 $676,060 $824,817 $885,090Total Expenditure $1,467,435 $1,750,739 $2,099,192 $2,307,384 $2,607,026

Surplus $62,640 $4,823 $11,981 $383 $30,758

Table 4: Performance Indicators1

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Research PerformanceResearch Income National Competitive Research Grants $207,400 $234,128 $346,577 $380,952 $506,508

13% 48% 10% 30%Other Public Research Grants $77,500 $199,316 $341,171 $361,938 $625,200

157% 71% 6% 73%Industry and Other Research Funds $304,317 $503,475 $550,857 $630,050 $855,230

65% 9% 14% 36%Total External Research Income $589,217 $936,921 $1,238,605 $1,372,940 $1,986,938

59% 32% 11% 45%Publications Refereed Journal Articles 11 12 34 41 34

9% 183% 20% -18%Total Publications 50 71 115 156 115

42% 61% 35% -26%Higher Degree Research Higher Degree Students 2.5 4.5 5 3 4Students (Full Time Equivalent) 80% 11% -40% 33%

Research Higher Degree Completions - - 1 1 0

Business, Government and Public Policy Debates

Subscriptions to Melbourne 135 175 258 505 550Institute Products(Excluding Australian 30% 47% 96% 9%Economic Review)Value of Subscriptions and $379,828 $448,338 $504,178 $528,472 $500,620Sponsorships

18% 12% 5% -5%References to the Melbourne 116 193 213 303 188Institute in the Media

66% 10% 42% -38%

Financial Performance

Total Income $1,530,075 $1,755,562 $2,111,173 $2,307,766 $2,637,78415% 20% 9% 14%

Financial Reserve Work in Progress

Multiplier Effect for the University 10.20 11.70 14.07 15.91 17.59(Ratio of total income to the Faculty’s base-line funding) 15% 20% 13% 14%1Figures in italics represent the percentage increase/decrease each year. The figures are provisional. In particular the measures of researchoutput need to be confirmed.

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