20% Wind Vision: a KS Opportunity20% Wind Vision: a KS Opportunity

Larry Flowers Larry Flowers National Renewable Energy Laboratory National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Topeka, KS – September 26, 2007Topeka, KS – September 26, 2007

Installed Wind Capacities (‘99 – Aug 07)Installed Wind Capacities (‘99 – Aug 07)

State of the Union Address“…We will invest more in … revolutionary and…wind

technologies”

Advanced Energy Initiative

“Areas with good wind resources have the potential to supply up to 20% of the electricity consumption of the United States.”

A New VisionA New VisionFor Wind Energy in the U.S.For Wind Energy in the U.S.

20% Wind-Electricity Vision20% Wind-Electricity Vision

Wind energy will provide 20% of U.S. electricity needs by 2030, securing

America’s leadership in reliable, clean energy technology. As an inexhaustible and

affordable domestic resource, wind strengthens our energy security, improves

the quality of the air we breathe, slows climate change, and revitalizes rural

communities.

“The future ain’t what it used to be.”

- Yogi Berra

• National and state policy uncertainty• Mixed stakeholder perspectives and knowledge• Electricity supply planning based on capacity• Variable wind output viewed as unreliable• Incomplete comparative generation assessments• Mismatch of wind and transmission development

timeframes• Federal lending all source requirements for G&T’s• Lack of interstate approach to transmission development• Lack of utility financial incentives to own wind facilities• High cost and low turbine availability for community

projects• High cost and permitting challenges of <1 MW turbines • Uncertainty in emerging emissions REC markets

Market ChallengesMarket Challenges

- 200 400 600 800 1,0000

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Quantity Available, GW

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Class 6

Class 4

Class 7

Class 5

Class 3

Offshore

Class 6

Class 4

Class 7

Class 5

Class 3

10% Available 10% Available

TransmissionTransmission

2010 Costs w/ PTC, $1,600/MW-mile, w/o Integration costs

What does 20% Wind look like?What does 20% Wind look like?

Source: AWEA 20% Vision

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Cumulative Capacity (left scale)

Annual Capacity (right scale)

12 Key Messages 12 Key Messages

1. Wind energy provides multiple benefits at the national, regional, state, and local levels

2. Targeted messages and education are needed for the diverse set of stakeholder interests and perspectives, including regional variations in same.

3. Convergence of energy security, carbon liability and fuel uncertainty concerns is likely to transform the market for US electricity supply.

4. Federal and state policies are needed for a diversified and robust wind energy portfolio

5. Community and distributed wind are important building blocks for public acceptance of a 20% wind future.

6. Resource planning and procurement should maximize use of low marginal cost, zero-emissions energy resources, which displace more expensive fossil fuel

12 Key Messages con’t.12 Key Messages con’t.

7. All environmental (including water savings) and economic impacts and risks should be included in comparative resource economics.

8. Wind is the crop of the 21st Century for rural America, and the resulting economic benefits need to be included in comparative assessments of generation options.

9. Wind deployment can ramp up rapidly and incrementally to meet local and regional load growth.

10.The federal sector (both facilities and transmission) represents significant opportunities for leadership in use and transmission of wind.

11.Meeting most load growth with wind power buys time for the development and commercialization of advanced coal technologies able to sequester carbon.

12. In air quality markets, policies need to be crafted carefully to account for non-emitting technologies.

ConclusionsConclusions

• 20% wind energy penetration is possible• 20% penetration is not going to happen under business

as usual scenario• Policy choices will have a large impact on assessing the

timing and rate of achieving a 20% goal• Key Issues: market transformation, transmission, project

diversity, technology development, policy, public acceptance

• 20% Vision action plan: Fall 2007

Source: AWEA 20% Vision

1. Energy

2. Water

3. Food

4. Environment

5. Poverty

6. Terrorism & War

7. Disease

8. Education

9. Democracy

10.Population

Humanity’s Top Ten Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 yearsProblems for next 50 years

Source: Nobel laureate, Richard Smalley

Economic Impacts to Kansasfrom 7158 MW of new wind development by 2030

Direct Impacts

Payments to Landowners: • $20.8 million/year Local Property Tax Revenue:• $19 million/yearConstruction Phase:• 11,133 new construction jobs• $1.35B to local economiesOperational Phase:• 1805 new long-term jobs• $152M/yr to local economies

Indirect Impacts

Construction Phase:• 5,000 new jobs• $424M to local economiesOperational Phase:• 438 local jobs• $43 M/yr to local economies

Induced Impacts

Construction Phase:• 6,223 new jobs• $559 M to local economiesOperational Phase:• 850 local jobs• $76 M/yr to local economies

Wind energy’s economic “ripple effect”

Construction Phase = 1-2 yearsOperational Phase = 20+ years

Totals (construction + 20 yrs)Total economic benefit to Kansas = $7.8 billionNew local jobs during construction = over 23,000New long-term jobs for Kansans = over 3,000

*Total economic impact includes direct, indirect and induced impacts.

Total Econom ic Im pacts* from energy equivalent new w ind and new coal in Kansas

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Property taxes

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Construction

Energy-equivalent Energy-equivalent new wind vs. new coal in Kansasnew wind vs. new coal in Kansas

Windy Rural Areas Need Windy Rural Areas Need Economic DevelopmentEconomic Development

Environmental BenefitsEnvironmental Benefits

• No SOx or NOx

• No particulates

• No mercury

• No CO2

• No water

Sustainable Withdrawal of Sustainable Withdrawal of Freshwater is National IssueFreshwater is National Issue

Source: EPRI 2003

Source: NOAA

Source: NOAA

Energy-Water NexusEnergy-Water Nexus

“With public sentiment nothing can fail; without it, nothing can succeed.”

- A. Lincoln

Carpe Ventem

www.windpoweringamerica.gov