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Trends and Challenges in Building Resilience

through Infrastructure

Philippine Institute for Development StudiesSurian sa mga Pag-aaral Pangkaunlaran ng Pilipinas

www.pids.gov.ph

Adoracion M. NavarroSenior Research Fellow

Pandi, Bulacan28 April 2016

Philippine Press Institute’s Seminar-Workshop on Sustainable Construction Reporting

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OUTLINE• Suggested Analytical Framework

• Trends in Infrastructure Development

• Challenges in Building Resilience Case Study: Super Typhoon Yolanda PPP Program and Status

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Analytical Framework

RISK of a country being

adversely affected by external shocks

VULNERABILITY/EXPOSURE

of a country to external shocks

COPING ABILITY/RESILIENCE

• Absorptive• Adaptive• Transformative

Exposure due to structural factors, e.g. geography

Exposure due to bad

policiesGood Policy

Interventions

Risk, Vulnerabilities and Resilience

Source: Llanto 2016

• OECD (2014) pointedly explains that economies with resilient systems are more capable of bearing various environmental, political, economic, and social risks, stresses, and shocks.

• Llanto (2016) stresses that risks are not only limited to disasters, but also economic shocks due to global interconnectedness

• Good economic policies have a large role to play in building the economy’s resilience

• Building resilient infra is also key

Trends in Infrastructure Development

• Infrastructure spending was at 2.38% in 2015

• Further, actual expenditures in 2014 showed that the public infrastructure spending-to-GDP ratio declined to 1.26 percent from 1.98 percent in 2013

• Low disbursements may be attributed to:

• delays due to additional procedures; • additional restrictions on the use of

savings and realignments (i.e. SC ruling on DAP);

• structural weaknesses within the agencies; and

• other reasons that are beyond the control of the agencies. (DBM, 2014)

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

1.79%

2.09%

1.74%

1.41%

1.73%1.98%

1.26%

2.38%

2.34%

2.75%

2.15%1.88%

2.83% 2.81%

1.79%

3.79%

Infrastructure Outlay, % of GDP Capital Outlays, % of GDP

Actual Infrastructure and Other Capital Outlays as % of GDP, 2008-2014

Source: Department of Budget and Management Notes: 2008 to 2014 figures – actual spending; 2015 figures – adjusted obligations.

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Trends in Infrastructure Development

• Competitive Bidding as the default mode of procurement according to RA 9184.

• Allowable time until issuance of notice to proceed:

• For below P50 M: 113 calendar days• For P50 M and above: 144 calendar days

• However, there are delays in procurement. GPPB-TSO highlights that the most common cause of delays can be traced to the planning stage; also causes failure of bidding.

• Difficulty in setting appropriate ABC• Lapses in details of technical specs

Pre-Procurement Conference

Award of Contract

Advertisement Pre-Bid Conference

Bid Evaluation & Ranking Post-Qualification

Submission of Bids

Opening of 2nd Envelope –

Financial Proposal

Opening of 1st Envelope –

Eligibility Docs & Technical Proposal

Standardized Bidding Procedure for Goods and Infra

Source: Capacity Development Division, GPPB

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Trends in Infrastructure Development

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

BRN; 27.3

IND; 32.6

CMB; 20.9

LAO; 30.1

MYS; 26.0

PHL; 20.8

SGP; 25.4THA; 24.6VNM; 23.8

Gross Capital Formation (as % of GDP): 2000 - 2014

Source: Worldbank Database

• Among ASEAN member states, the Philippines ranks 2nd to the last in terms of gross capital formation (% of GDP) in 2015.

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Challenges in Building Resilience

Country Risk (%) RankVanuatu 36.5 1Philippines 28.25 2Tonga 28.23 3Guatemala 20.68 4Bangladesh 19.37 5Solomon Islands 19.18 6Costa Rica 17.33 7El Salvador 17.12 8Cambodia 17.12 9Papua New Guinea 16.74 10Timor-Leste 16.41 11Brunei Darussalam 16.23 12Nicaragua 14.87 13Mauritius 14.78 14Guinea-Bissau 13.75 15

Country Exposure (%) RankVanuatu 63.66 1

Tonga 55.27 2

Philippines 52.46 3

Japan 45.91 4

Costa Rica 42.61 5

Brunei Darussalam 41.1 6

Mauritius 37.35 7

Guatemala 36.3 8

El Salvador 32.6 9

Bangladesh 31.7 10

Chile 30.95 11

Netherlands 30.57 12

Solomon Islands 29.98 13

Fiji 27.71 14

Cambodia 27.65 15

Top 15 countries most at risk worldwide, World Risk Report 2014

Top 15 countries most exposed worldwide, World Risk Report 2014

Source: UNU-EHS and Alliance Development Works (2014)

population, conditions of builtup

areas, infra, environmen

tal areas

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• From 2000-2014, an average of 19 tropical cyclones per year hit the Philippines.

• Almost 8 were typhoons, while the remaining were classified as either tropical storms or tropical depression.

• In 2013, we had the most number of cyclones.

• including one super typhoon (Yolanda)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

5

10

15

20

25

30

1817

13

25 25

17

20

13

2122

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1917

25

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Tropical Depression Tropical Storm Typhoon Super Typhoon

Total No. of Cyclones, per Category, in the Philippines: 2000-2014

Source: Reyes, C. (2016)

Challenges in Building Resilience

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• Tropical depression - a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of up to 61 kilometers per hour (kph) or less than 33 nautical miles per hour (knots)

• Tropical storm - a  tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 62 to 88 kph or 34 - 47 knots

• Severe tropical storm - a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 89 to 117 kph or 48 - 63 knots

• Typhoon - a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of  118 to 220 kph or 64 - 120 knots

• Super typhoon - a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed exceeding 220 kph or more than 120 knots. 

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Storms; 51.3

Flood; 31.9

Landslide; 6.4

Volcano; 4.6

Earthquake; 4.1

Other; 1.7

Frequency

Storm; 78.7

Earthquake; 7.9

Flood; 5.9

Landslide; 5.6

Other; 2

Mortality

Storm; 79.0

Flood; 17.3

Earthquake; 2.2

Other; 1.5

Economic Impacts

Frequency and Impacts of Disasters in the Philippines, 1990-2014

Source: The OFDA/CRED - International Disaster Database

• Cyclones/storms are the most frequent disaster in the county, which account for the highest mortalities and the most adverse economic impacts.

Challenges in Building Resilience

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Case of Super Typhoon Yolanda• Super Typhoon Yolanda

• 8 November 2013• Affected Regions VI-B, VI, VII, and

VIII

• Casualties• 6,300 deaths, 28,688 injured,

1,062 missing

• Total Damaged houses: 1,140,332• 550,928 totally• 589,404 partially

• Total Infrastructure damage is 9.584B

Track of Super Typhoon Yolanda

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Case of Super Typhoon Yolanda• The Comprehensive Rehabilitation

and Recovery Plan requires a total amount of P167,864,788,553 from 2014 to 2016.

• Resettlement comprise 46% of the total budget needed, while infrastructure is 21% of the total budget.

Source: Official Gazette

Typhoon Yolanda Funding Requirements, 2014-2016

• As of October 21, 2014, out of the total funding requirement, the DBM reports that the amount of P51,981,511,885 has already been released to fund the typhoon relief, rehabilitation and recovery efforts.

Cluster Amount

Infrastructure 35,148,634,408

Social Services 26,406,233,815

Resettlement 75,678,683,100

Livelihood 30,631,237,230

Total 167,864,788,553

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Government Response: Infrastructure Cluster

Agency Project Total Physical Target Completed On Going Pre-Procurement/

Procurement Stage

DPWH

National Roads (in km) 106.7 60.286 38.415 7.346

Bridges (in km) 1852.53 1117.64 640.09 94.8

Access Roads (in km) 1.7 1.7 - -

Flood Control (no. of projects) 110 77 17 8

DPWH Buildings (no. of buildings) 48 36 11 1

Reconstruction of Municipal Facilities (no. of buildings) 25 2 14 9

DepEdNew Construction (no. of projects) 2,313 1,026 928 359

Rehabilitation (no. of projects) 17,335 5,457 4,239 3484

School Furniture (no. of furnitures) 292,166 121,950 0 170,216

DILG Repair/rehabilitationof partially-damaged LGU Facilities (no. of projects) 309 292 no data no data

CHED SUCs (no. of projects) 606 412 191 3Source: DPWH, 2015

Summary of Accomplishments, as of September 15, 2015

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Government Response: Resettlement ClusterSummary of Accomplishments, as of 5 November 2015• NHA

• Completed: 17,641 permanent housing units• Currently on-going: 42,566 permanent housing units• With funding: 74,385 permanent housing units

• Target completion is December 2016

• DSWD• 92,554 housing constructions funded

• 987,545 out of 1,028,329 families with damaged houses were given Emergency Shelter Assistance (ESA)

• On going: 40,784 families with damaged houses are covered and will be given Emergency Shelter Assistance (ESA)

Source: NHA, 2015Note: This is a photo of Brgy. San Isidro, Tacloban City

Source: NHA, 2015Note: This is a photo of Brgy. Sacme, Tanuan, Leyte.

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The challenge of sustaining the PPP Program• Public-Private Partnership

• As of 11 January 2016, there are 12 awarded PPP projects, for a total of Php 217.4 billion

• Three (3) completed projects:• Muntinlupa-Cavite Expressway• Automated Fare Collection system• PPP for School Infrastructure – Phase 1

• Two (2) more expected to be completed before end of Aquino administration:

• NAIA Expressway – Phase 2• PPP for School Infrastructure – Phase 2

No. Project Amount (in Billion Php)

1 Daang Hari-SLEX Link Road 2.012 PPP School Infrastructure Phase 1 16.433 NAIA Expressway (Phase II) Project 15.864 PPP for School Infrastructure Phase 2 3.86

5 Modernization of Philippine Orthopedic Center 8.69

6 Automatic Fare Collection System (AFCS) 1.72

7 Mactan-Cebu International Airport Passenger Terminal Building 17.52

8 LRT Line 1 Cavite Extension and O&M 64.90

9 Southwest Integrated Transport System (ITS) Project 2.50

10 Cavite-Laguna (CALA) Expressway 55.5111 South Integrated Transport System Project 4.0012 Bulcan Bulk Water Supply Project 24.40 So

urce

: PPP

Cen

ter

Awarded PPP Projects, as of 2016

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Status of Some PPP ProjectsProject Status

1. NAIA Expressway (Phase II) Project Expected to be completed in 2016; Construction ongoing: 72.69% complete (as of 18 March 2016)

2. PPP for School Infrastructure Phase 2

Expected to be completed in 2016; As of 29 February 2016:

2,035 classrooms (46.57%) completed; 1,295 classrooms (29.63%) with ongoing construction;

and 1,042 classrooms (23.84%) under pre-construction

phases.

3. Modernization of Philippine Orthopedic Center

Megawide letter requesting termination of concession agreement received by DOH on 10 November 2015.

DOH letter of March 3, 2016 confirmed DOH acceptance of Megawide's request for termination

4. Mactan-Cebu International Airport Passenger Terminal Building

As of 29 February 2016:Construction ongoing: 12.48% completed

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Project Status

5. LRT Line 1 Cavite Extension and O&M

Financial Closure achieved on 11 February 2016; and Ongoing soft renovation and upgrades of LRT Line 1 existing system and other

pre-construction activities.

6. Southwest Integrated Transport System (ITS) Project

Concession Agreement signed on 24 April 2015; and Ongoing pre-construction activities and procurement of independent

consultant (IC).

7. Cavite-Laguna (CALA) Expressway

Contract signed on 10 July 2015; and Ongoing pre-construction activities and procurement of independent

consultant (IC).

8. South Integrated Transport System Project

Contract signed on 26 January 2016; Ongoing Independent Consultant procurement and pre-construction

activities.9. Bulcan Bulk Water Supply Project

Groundbreaking ceremony held on April 15, 2016; and Ongoing pre-construction activities.

Status of Some PPP Projects

Source: PPP Center

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Postcript on another challenge in media reporting

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