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1NC NORMALIZE RELATIONS

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PoliticsImmigration will pass, their evidence cites a vocal minority

Elliott July 15, 2013 (Grover Norquist, Rahm Emanuel: House will pass immigration, REBECCA ELLIOTT, 7/15/13 ,http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN,REBECCA ELLIOTT is a staffwriter)

Two political figures with very distinct ideologies but similar outlooks on immigration reformChicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel andAmericans for Tax Reform President GroverNorquist predictedMonday that HouseRepublicans will ultimately get behind a reform bill despite the outspoken opposition lately ofmany of them. There will be a strong Republican vote for this,Norquist said of immigration reform at an eventhosted by The Atlantic. This should be second nature for Republicans.Immigration reform legislation passed the Senateoverwhelmingly in June but has run into st iff resistance in the House among House Republicans. Given Boehners pledge not to call an immigration bill

to a vote without majority support of his conference, there is a growing belief that the reform effort is headed towarda slow death in the House. (PHOTOS: 20 quotes on immigration reform) However, Norquist and Emanuel saidthat a vocal minority of conservatives, not the heart of the Republican Party, is responsible formost of the opposition to immigration reform. Volume does not reflect depth,Emanuel said. Leadersin the Republican Party have allowed the screamers to define who the Republican Party is.

Norquist fingered tongue wagging talk radio hosts for stoking conservative ire over the reform effort. Their rhetoric, the head of the anti-tax groupsurmised, distorts the true level of opposition among Republican lawmakers. (Also on POLITICO: Rahm Emanuel visits White House)

Obamas PC key to overcome GOP oppositionAFP 6-12(Agence France Presse. US immigration bill advances in Senate, clears first hurdlehttp://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2013-06-12/news/39925853_1_border-security-landmark-immigration-bill-democratic-senator-chuck-schumer)Obama made an outspoken pitch for the billon Tuesday, saying those opposed to it are insincere about fixing a

badly broken system. The president has gently pushed the bill from behind the scenes for months,fearing his open support would swell the ranks of conservatives who see the bill as offering amnesty to illegal immigrants and are

determined to kill it. But ahead of the crucial test votes, Obama waded into the fray, leveraging the political

capital on the issue he won during last year's election campaign, particularly among Hispanic voters.

The president sought to disarm conservative Republicans -- even some who support immigration reform --who argue that the bill should not be passed without tough new border security measures. "If passed, the Senate bill, as currentlywritten and as hitting the floor, would put in place the toughest border enforcement plan that America has ever seen. So nobody's

taking border enforcement lightly," he said at a White House event. Obama also took direct aim at the motives oflawmakers who are opposed to the bill."If you're not serious about it, if you think that a broken system is the bestAmerica can do, then I guess it makes sense to try to block it," he said. "But if you're actually serious and sincere about fixing a

broken system, this is the vehicle to do it, and now is the time to get it done." Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, a frequent

Obama critic, said "the president's tone and engagement has been very helpful" to the process.But he stressed that fellow Republicans in the Senate and House needed to look closely at whether they want to scupper the ef fort and

jeopardize the party's political future by alienating millions of voters.

Changing policy toward Cuba requires lots of PCWilliams 13(A foreign correspondent for 25 years, Carol J. Williams traveled to and reportedfrom more than 80 countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. A foreigncorrespondent for 25 years, Carol J. Williams traveled to and reported from more than 80countries in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. May 03, 2013

http://articles.latimes.com/2013/may/03/world/la-fg-wn-cuba-us-terror-list-20130502)Politicians who have pushed for a continued hard line against Cuba cheered their victory ingetting the Obama administration to keep Cuba on the list.U.S. Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, a South FloridaRepublican whose efforts to isolate and punish the Castro regime have been a central plank of her election strategy throughout her 24years in Congress, hailed the State Department decision as reaffirming the threat that the Castro regime represents. Arash

Aramesh, a national security analyst at Stanford Law School, blamed the continued branding of Cuba as a

terrorism sponsor on politicians pandering for a certain political base.He also said President

Obama andSecretary of State John F. Kerry have failed to make a priority of removing the

impediment to better relations with Cuba. As much as Id like to see the Castro regime gone and an open and freeCuba, it takes away from the State Departments credibility when they include countries on the list that arent even close to

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuANhttp://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/immigration-grover-norquist-rahm-emanuel-94235.html#ixzz2ZMSrkuAN

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threatening Americans, Aramesh said. Political considerations also factor into excluding countries from the state sponsor list, hesaid, pointing to Pakistan as a prime example. Although Islamabad very clearly supports terrorist and insurgent organizations, he

said, the U.S. government has long refused to provoke its ally in the region with the official censure. The decision to retain Cuba onthe list surprised some observers of the long-contentious relationship between Havana and Washington. Since Fidel Castro retired fiveyears ago and handed the reins of power to his younger brother, Raul, modest economic reforms have been tackled and thegovernment has revoked the practice of requiring Cubans to get exit visas before they could leave their country for foreign travel.There was talk early in Obamas first term of easing the 51-year-old embargo, and Kerry, though still in the Senate then, wrote acommentary for the Tampa Bay Tribune in 2009 in which he deemed the security threat from Cuba a faint shadow. He called then

for freer travel between the two countries and an end to the U.S. policy of isolating Cuba that has manifestly failed for nearly 50years. The political clout of the Cuban American community in South Florida and more

recently Havanas refusal to release Gross have kept any warming between the Cold War

adversaries at bay. Its a matter of political priorities and trade-offs,Aramesh said. He noted thatformer Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton last year exercised her discretion to get the Iranian opposition group MujahedeenKhalq, or MEK, removed from the governments list of designated terrorist organizations. That move was motivated by the hopes of

some in Congress that the group could be aided and encouraged to eventually challenge the Tehran regime. Its a question of

how much political cost you want to incur or how much political capital you want to spend,

Aramesh said. President Obama has decided not to reach out to Cuba, that he has more

important foreign policy battles elsewhere.

Visa policy is dragging down US-India relations now only CIR canreaffirm our alliance with IndiaZee News 12

[Krishna, Hillary to discuss visa fee hike in NY, October 1st, 2012,

http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/krishna-hillary-to-discuss-visa-fee-hike-in-

ny_802978.html]

New York: The issue of US visa fee hike, which has hurt several Indian IT firms, is expected to

come up for discussion whenExternal Affairs Minister SM Krishna meetsUS Secretary of State Hillary

Clintonhere on Monday on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session. India has "consistently" taken up

the issue of the visa fee hike with the USand the issue will figure in talks between Krishna and Clinton, official

sources said. The US had raised visa fee in 2010to fund its enhanced costs on securing border with Mexico under theBorder Security Act. Some of the top Indian companies TCS, Infosys, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam were affected by the US action

and India is expected to soon seek consultations with the US at the World Trade Organization (WTO) on the issue. The sources saidthat young Indian professionals working in the US have been the "cornerstone" of India-US

relations and are a pillar in the improved bilateral relationsthat has brought the two countries closer.

Hiking visa fees or limiting the number of work visas availableto Indian companies is tantamount to

"undermining that pillar and growth in India-US relations," they added. "Raising visa fees and

putting other barriers is not in consonance with the forward thinking of growing bilateral

ties,"the sources said. This will be the third bilateral meeting between Krishna and Clinton this year. They had previously met inIndia in April and again in June in Washington. The sources said that the two countries have a fairly elaborate agenda and the visaissue is one of the issues in a broader relationship. Krishna will also address the 67th session of the UN General Assembly today.

part of the world are essentialto the peace and prosperity of the world.

Key to every existential threatArmitage et al 10

[Richard is the President of Armitage International and former Deputy Secretary of State.R. Nicholas Burns is a Professor in the Practice of Diplomacy and International Politics,

Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University. Richard Fontaine is the President of

the Center for New American Security. Natural Allies: A Blueprint for the Future of U.S.-

India Relations, October, Center for New American Security,

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Burns%20-%20Natural%20Allies.pdf]

A strengthened U.S.-India strategic partnership is thus imperative in this new era. The

transformation of U.S. ties with New Delhi over the past 10 years, led by Presidents Clinton

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and Bush, stands as one of the most significant triumphs of recent American foreign policy.It has also been a bipartisan success. In the last several years alone, the United States and India have completed a landmark civilnuclear cooperation agreement, enhanced military ties, expanded defense trade, increased bilateral trade and investment and deepened

their global political cooperation. Many prominent Indians and Americans, however, now fear this

rapid expansion of ties has stalled.Past projects remain incomplete, few new ideas have

been embraced by both sides, and the forward momentum that characterized recent

cooperation has subsided.The Obama administration has taken significant steps to break through this inertia, includingwith its Strategic Dialogue this spring and President Obamas planned state visit to India in November 2010. Yet there remains a senseamong observers in both countries that this critical relationship is falling short of its promise. We believe it is critical to

rejuvenate the U.S.- India partnership and put U.S. relations with India on a more solid

foundation.The relationship requires a bold leap forward. The United States should establish a vision for what it seeks in therelationship and give concrete meaning to the phrase strategic partnership. A nonpartisan working group of experts met at the Centerfor a New American Security (CNAS) over the past eight months to review the main pillars of the U.S.-India relationship and wearticulate here a specific agenda of action. In order to chart a more ambitious U.S.-India strategic partnership, we believe that theUnited States should commit, publicly and explicitly, to work with India in support of its permanent membership in an enlarged U.N.Security Council; seek a broad expansion of bilateral trade and investment, beginning with a Bilateral Investment Treaty; greatlyexpand the security relationship and boost defense trade; support Indian membership in key export control organizations, a steptoward integrating India into global nonproliferation efforts; and liberalize U.S. export controls, including the removal of Indian Space

Research Organization (ISRO) subsidiaries from the U.S. Entity List. These and the other actions outlined in this report will requireIndia to make a number of commitments and policy changes, including taking rapid action to fully implement the Civil NuclearAgreement; raising its caps on foreign investment; reducing barriers to defense and other forms of trade; enhancing its rules for

protecting patents and other intellectual property; further harmonizing its export control lists with multilateral regimes; and seeking

closer cooperation with the United States and like-minded partners in international organizations, including the United Nations. TheU.S. relationship with India should be rooted in shared interests and values and should not be simply transactional or limited tooccasional collaboration. Indias rise to global power is, we believe, in Americas strategic interest. As a result, the United States

should not only seek a closer relationship with India, but actively assist its further emergence as a great power. U.S. interests

in a closer relationship with India include: Ensuring a stable Asian and global balance of

power. Strengtheningan open global trad[e]ing system. Protecting and preserving

access to the global commons (air, sea, space, and cyber realms). Countering terrorism

and violent extremism. Ensuring access tosecure global energy resources. Bolstering

the international nonproliferation regime. Promoting democracyand human rights.

Fostering greater stability, security and economic prosperity in South Asia, including in

Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka.A strong U.S.-India strategic

partnership will prove indispensable to the regionscontinued peace and prosperity. Both

India and the United States have a vital interest in maintaining a stable balance of power inAsia. Neither seeks containment of China, but the likelihood of a peaceful Chinese rise

increases if it ascends in a region where the great democratic powers are also strong.

Growing U.S.-India strategic ties will ensure that Asia will not have a vacuum of power and

will make it easier for both Washington and New Delhi to have productive relations with

Beijing. In addition, a strengthened relationship with India, a natural democratic partner,

will signal that the United States remains committed to a strong and enduring presence in

Asia. The need for closer U.S.-India cooperation goes well beyond regional concerns. In light of its rise, India will play an

increasingly vital role in addressing virtually all major global challenges.Now is the time to

transform a series of bilateral achievements into a lasting regional and global partnership.

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1NC CP Shell

Text: The President of the United States should remove all restrictions on

Cuban-American travel and remittances; grant visas to Cubans invited to theUnited States to participate in educational, cultural, religious, humanitarian,and scientific activities if they pass normal visa security reviews; communicateto the Cuban government The United States desire to restore the diplomaticfunction of the Interest Section as its core mission; immediately turn off theelectronic ticker-tape billboard on the Interests Section building in Havana;propose immediate resumption of regular consultations with Cuba overimplementation of the migration agreements signed by Presidents Reagan andClinton; remove travel limits of U.S. and Cuban diplomats.

The counterplan competes and is DISTINCT from Economic EngagementRose and Spiegel 8(Andrew K. and Mark M., Professor of International Business, Economic Analysis and Policy Group, Haas School of Business,

University of California, Berkeley; and Research Fellow, CEPR; and Vice President, Economic Research and Data at the

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, respectively; NON-ECONOMIC ENGAGEMENT AND INTERNATIONAL

EXCHANGE:THE CASE OF ENVIRONMENTAL TREATIES, 2008,http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1,AC)

Countries, like people, interactwith each other on a number of different dimensions. Some interactionsare strictly economic ; for instance, countries engage in international tradeofgoods, services, capital, and labor.

But many are not economic , at least not in any narrow sense. For instance, the United States seeks topromote human rights and democracy, deter nuclear proliferation, stop the spread of narcotics,and so forth. Accordingly America, like other countries,participates in a number of international institutions to

further its foreign policy objectives; it has joined security alliances like NATO, and international organizations such astheInternational Atomic Energy Agency. In this paper, we concentrate on the interesting and understudied case of internationalenvironmental arrangements(IEAs). We ask whether participationin such non-economicpartnerships tends to enhance international economic relations. The answer , in both

theory and practice, is positive . Memberships in IEAs yield costs and benefits. A country can gaindirectly from such interactions; its air might be cleaner, or there might be more fish in the sea. However, some gains can be

indirect. For instance, countries with long horizons and low discount rates might be more willing both to protectthe environment and to maintain a reputation as a good credit risk. If they can signal their discount ratethrough IEA activity, participation in IEAs may indirectly yield gains from improvements in credit terms. Alternatively, countries

that are tightly tied into a web of international relationships may find that withdrawing fromone domain (such as environmental cooperation), may adversely affect activities in an unrelated area (such as finance).The fear of these spillovers may then encourage good behavior in the first area.

And, it solves the aff

LeoGrande 2k8

(William M. LeoGrande is dean of the School of Public Affairs at American University in

Washington, DC, and a specialist on U.S. relations with Latin America. Engaging Cuba: A

Roadmap, World Policy Journal 2008 25: 87, pg Sage //um-ef)

http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1http://www.nber.org/papers/w13988.pdf?new_window=1

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From the time Fidel Castro seized power nearly three generations ago, Cuba has served as an important symbol

to Latin America. Washingtons unwavering hostility, which has spanned ten presidents from both political

parties, is an anachronistic remnant of the Cold Wara reminder of an era when the United States too often

imposed its will on Latin America in the name of its own national security. Nothing would more clearly signal the

visionary intent of a young and forward-looking global leader to open a new chapter in U.S.-

Latin American relations than a change in Cuba policy. It would be welcomed across the

hemisphere, and enable us to work together with our friends on a strategy to create a positiveclimate for change in Cuba. Internally, Cuba is already in the midst of change, evolving from a centrally plannedeconomy controlled by a single Leninist party to a mixed, market-oriented economy and an increasingly plural civil society.After Fidel Castro fell ill in August 2006 and his brother, Ral, replaced him as president, the younger Castro opened a candiddialogue with Cubans about the problems they face. In a series of speeches, he acknowledged the inadequacy of state-sectorincomes, the inability of state farms to raise agricultural production, the existence of serious corruption and cronyism, and theinequality produced by a dual currency system where people who have access to U.S. dollars and Euros through employment inthe tourist sector or from relatives abroad live far better than ordinary Cubans. Ral has promised action on all these fronts, andhas already adopted measures to make daily life easiersuch as replacing Havanas antiquated Soviet buses with a fleet ofnew Chinese imports. Rals frank discussion of the regimes shortcomings and declarations of the need for change have raised

popular expectations enormously. From the Cuban leadership to the man and woman in the street, Cubans agree that the

old system needs a drastic overhaul. The pace and extent of change are uncertain, especially on

the political front, but they will depend in part on the external environmentthe mix of

incentives and disincentives for change that other countries offer.During the presidential campaign,

Senator Obama argued that Washingtons policy of hostility, isolation, and economic denial had not achieved the desired result.Weve been engaged in a failed policy with Cuba for the last 50 years, he declared at a campaign rally in Miami. And we

need to change it. If the United Stateshopes to exert a positive influence on the changes underway in

Cuba, it must reestablish some measure of engagement. More immediately, Cuba and its people are facing anacute crisis that the United States can and should help alleviate, on both humanitarian grounds and out of selfinterest.Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma inflicted terrible damage to the Cuban economy, destroying many food crops and storedfood supplies. The government itself has warned of food shortages. Over the next year, falling consumption will increase

pressures for migration, just as economic privation in 1994, led to the balsero (rafters) migration crisis. President Bill Clintonthought he could put Cuba policy on the backburner after the 1992 election, a shortsighted approach that left his administrationunprepared for the migration crisis that followed. President Obama should not repeat that mistake. Acting quickly anddecisively now can reduce the likelihood of another crisis next summer, but the cooperation of the Cuban government isessential to complement even the best of American intentions. Engaging People and Government During the presidential

campaign, Senator Obama offered two elements of a new Cuba policylifting government

restrictions on Cuban-American family visits and remittances, and opening a diplomatic

dialogue with the Cuban government. These two elements comprise the core of a strategic shift

in U.S. policy from one of isolation and deprivation to one of engagement with both the Cubanpeople and the Cuban government. We can engage the Cuban people by encouraging

interaction between U.S. and Cuban societies at all levelsvia CubanAmerican family linkages,

cultural and educational exchanges, scientific cooperation, and non-governmental humanitarian

assistance.President Clinton expanded these people-to-people contacts to good effect. President George W. Bush, however,curtailed almost all interaction with Cuba by U.S. civil society. He ended most categories of travel for cultural and educational

purposes. He restricted religious, scientific, and Cuban-American travel. He virtually banned travel to the United States byCuban scholars, artists, and scientists. During the Bush years, authentic civil society contact between the United States andCuba was replaced by narrowly targeted U.S. government material support for selected Cuban dissidents. Washington publicly

proclaimed that this support was intended to subvert the government, leading Cuban authorities to do everything possible to

make Americas efforts ineffective, including the imprisonment of many aid recipients. Engaging the Cuban

government diplomatically will reduce bilateral tensions, help avoid future crises, and advance

U.S. interests on a variety of issues . Every American president from Dwight D. Eisenhower to Bill Clinton held

negotiations with Cuba, and Ronald Reagan signed more agreements with Havana than any other president. Only George W.

Bush refused to see the utility of skillful diplomacy. Just as he cut off people to-peopleexchanges, he cut off virtually all diplomatic contact between the United States and Cuba, using

the U.S. diplomatic mission in Havana as a depot for aiding Cuban dissidents while publicly

excoriating the Cuban government. President Obama has declared that the goal of U.S. policy should be to seek

democ racy in Cuba, but diplomacy offers only an indirect path to a democratic opening. Cuban leaderswill not negotiate their domestic political arrangements with a foreign country, any more than we would. When Ral Castrooffered in 2006 to negotiate with the United States on a basis of equality and mutual respect for sovereignty, he was signalinghis rejection of U.S. demands that Cuba change its political regime. That has been Cubas unwavering position since 1959, and

if we insist on explicitly adding democracy to the agenda, negotiations will go nowhere. Our allies in Latin America

and the European Unionwho have been pursuing strategies of engagement with Cuba for many years can attest that

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this is the one issue that is always off the table. Nevertheless, through engagementthey have been able to reach

bilateral agreements with Cuba on issues of mutual interest and, in some cases, win freedom for

some political prisoners. A strategy of engagement should be designed to create an international

environment that makes it beneficial for Cuban leaders to allow greater political and economic

liberty on the island, while at the same time creating a more vibrant civil society that will, in

time, press Cubas leaders from below to allow a political opening. This indirect approach will not workquickly and it offers no guarantees, although similar strategies proved successful in promoting democratic transitions in Spain

and Greece in the 1970s, in Chile, Brazil, and Mexico during their transition from authoritarian rule, and in Eastern Europe atthe end of the communist era.

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China DA

Chinas influence in North American trade is expandingShaiken et al 13

[Harley. Prof in the Center for Latin American Studies at UC-Berkeley. And Enrique PetersCenter for Latin American Studies at the University of Miami. And Adrian HearnCentro deEstudios China-Mexixo at Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico. China and the NewTriangular Relationships in the Americas: China and the Future of US-Mexico Relations, 2013.Pg 7-8]This paper highlights the reality that Chinahasindeed integrated itself into North America in a process

beginning in 2001 withChinas adherence to the World Trade Organization. Before 2001, both Mexico

and the U.S. were increasing and deepening traderelations and regional specializations within the parameters of

NAFTA. Since 2001, however, this process has reversed as a result of Chinasmassive trade

volume with both the U.S. and Mexico.The analysis presented herein shows that Chinas rapidly developingtrade relationship with both Mexico and the U.S. has had significant effects on each

countrys respective trade dynamics. For instance, today China is the second largest trading

partner for both Mexico and the United States, falling behind only the total intra-NAFTA

trade volume. As we have seen from our examination of the top twenty products imported by Mexico from the U.S. and China,

the structure of trade in the region is shifting significantly : for Mexico, its export share in

the U.S. market has fallen sharply, contrary to the trade growth of Asia, and particularly of China.

As discussed previously, from 2000-2011 both the U.S. and Mexico endured substantial losses in

their respective export marketsin the NAFTA region, particularly inregards to the manufacturingsector

andin products such as telecommunicationsequipment, electric power machinery, passenger motor vehicles, and clothing

accessories and garments, among many others.NAFTA, since its origins, has passed through two distinct phases. During the firstphase (1994-2000), the region was deeply integrated as a result of trade, investment, and rules of origin in specific industrial sectorssuch as autoparts-automobiles (AA) and yarn-textile-garments (YTG). In this first phase, NAFTA evolved in accordance with some ofthe predictions and estimations that we discuss in the literature survey. The region as a whole grew in terms of GDP, trade,

investment, employment, and wages, among other variables, while intra-industry trade increased substantially. While some of

the gaps between the U.S. and Mexico were slowly closing, however, this was only true for a

small portion of Mexicos highly polarized socioeconomic and territorial structure. In other

words, even in Mexican sectors highly integrated with NAFTA , the integration process did

not allow for the promotion of backward and forward linkages in Mexico. In the second phase

(2000-), NAFTA has shown a deterioration of this process of integration in terms of

investment and intra-industrial trade, among other variables. During this time period, both Mexico and the

United States have been on the losing end of competitions with third-party countries, a topiconly discussed somewhat in debates on NAFTA (see the survey in part two of this paper).

Chinas influence is zero-sum- lack of US influence is keyKreps, 13Assistant Professors of Government at Cornell University(Sarah E., No StringsAttached? Evaluating Chinas Trade Relations Abroad, May 17, http://thediplomat.com/china-

power/no-strings-attached-evaluating-chinas-trade-relations-abroad)//VPTo be sure, China may not have a purposeful plan to bring their trade partners into alignment

on foreign policy questions. Even if unintentional, however,this gravitational effect has a soundeconomic basis. Developing countries in Africa and Latin America are comparatively much more dependent on China thanChina is on these countries. In a ten year period, for example, Sudans trade with China rose from 1 to 10% of its Gross DomesticProduct. That pattern is even starker in a country like Angola, for which trade with China represented 25% of its GDP in 2006. While

China certainly needs access to the resources in these countries, the individual countries are far lessimportant to China than China is to these countries. The asymmetry in needs gives China abargaining advantage that translates into foreign policy outcomes even if not by explicit

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design.Whether by design or not, the convergence with Chinas foreign policy goals is importanton at least two levels. First, developing countries in Africa andLatin America may be lulled by theprospect of partnering with a country such as China that does not have an explicit political

agenda, as did the United Statesand Soviet Union during the Cold War, but this appears to be an illusion. Whether thisreaches the level of new colonialism as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton referred to it remains to be seen, but the economicasymmetries that undergird the relationship make that prospect more likely. A second set of implications deals with the United States.

During the same period in which Chinas trade withAfrica and

Latin Americaand foreign policy

convergence have increased, the United States and China have actually divergedin their overallUNGA voting behavior. This suggests something of a zero sum dynamic in which Chinas growing

trade relations make it easier to attract allies in international forums while US influence isdiminishing. Taken together, these trends call for greater engagement on behalf of the United States in the developing world.Sincethe September 2001attacks, Washington has dealt withAfrica and Latin America throughbenign neglect and shifted its attention elsewhere. If foreign policy alignment does follow

from tighter commercial relations, the US ought to reinvigorate its trade and diplomatic

agenda as an important means of projecting influence abroad.

Influence in Cuba key to Chinas overall Latin American agenda.Hearn 09Senior Research Fellow at the University of Sydney. Kiriyama Research Fellow

at the University of San Francisco Center for the Pacific Rim (Adrian,"China's relations withMexico and Cuba: A Study of Contrasts" Pacific Rim Report No 52, January,usf.usfca.edu/pac_rim/new/research/pacrimreport/pacrimreport52.html)//VPChina is Cubas second largest trading partnerafter Venezuela, with 2.7 billion dollars in bilateral trade

reported for 2007 (Cubaencuentro 2008). This trade is more valuable to Cuba than to China, though this

could change if Chinese oil, nickel, and electronics manufacturing operations in Cuba

expand. Furthermore, for the eight resource-rich countries that comprise Latin Americas New

Left, Cuba is a unique ideological symbol of resistanceto U.S. hegemony. For China, whose

pursuit of Latin American natural resources isat least as voraciousas that of the United States,

cooperation with Cuba, strongly supported by Ral Castro, decreases the danger of being perceived in

the region as an externalpotentially imperialisticthreat to economic sovereignty.

Chinese international influence is an existential impactit controls everyscenario for extinctionZhang 12[Prof of Diplomacy and IR at the Geneva School of Diplomacy. The Rise of Chinas PoliticalSoftpower 9/4/12 http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2012-09/04/content_26421330.htm ]As China plays an increasingly significant role in the world, its soft power must be

attractive both domestically as well as internationally. The world faces many difficulties,

including widespread poverty , international conflict , the clash of civilizations and

environmental protection . Thus far, the Western model has not been able to decisively

address these issues; the China model therefore brings hope that we can make progress in

conquering these dilemmas. Poverty and development The Western-dominated global economic

order has worsened poverty in developing countries. Per-capita consumption of resources in developedcountries is 32 times as large as that in developing countries. Almost half of the population in the world still lives in poverty. Western

countries nevertheless still are striving to consolidate their wealth using any and all necessary means. In contrast, China

forged a new path of development for its citizens in spite of this unfair international order

which enabled it to virtually eliminate extreme poverty at home. This extensive experience

would indeed be helpful in the fight against global poverty. War and peace In the past few years,

the American model of "exporting democracy'" has produced a more turbulent world, as

the increased risk of terrorism threatens global security . In contrast, China insists that

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"harmony is most precious". It is more practical, the Chinese system argues, to strengthen

international cooperation while addressing both the symptoms and root causes of terrorism.

The clash of civilizations Conflict between Western countries and the Islamic world is intensifying."In a world, which is diversified and where multiple civilizations coexist, the obligation of Western countries is to protect their own

benefits yet promote benefits of other nations," wrote Harvard University professor Samuel P. Huntington in his seminal 1993 essay

"The Clash of Civilizations?". China strives for "being harmonious yet remaining different", which

means to respect other nations, and learn from each other . This philosophy is,in fact, wiserthanthat of Huntington, and it's also the reason why few religious conflicts have broken out

in China. China's stance in regards to reconciling cultural conflicts, therefore, is more

preferable than its "self-centered" Western counterargument. Environmental protection Poorer

countries and their people are the most obvious victims of global warming, yet they are the

least responsible for the emission of greenhouse gases . Although Europeans and Americans

have a strong awareness of environmental protection, it is still hard to change their

extravagant lifestyles. Chinese environmental protection standards are not yet ideal, but

some effective environmental ideas can be extracted from the China model. Perfecting the China

model The China model is still being perfected, but its unique influence in dealing with the

above four issues grows as China becomes stronger. China's experiences in eliminating poverty, prioritizingmodernization while maintaining traditional values, and creating core values for its citizens demonstrate our insight and sense ofhuman consciousness. Indeed, the success of the China model has not only brought about China's rise, but also a new trend that can't

be explained by Western theory. In essence, the rise of China is the rise of China's political soft power, which has

significantly helped China deal with challenges, assist developing countries in reducing

poverty, and manage global issues. As the China model improves, it will continue to surprise the world.

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Gradualism

Gradual reforms nowkey to a stable transitionPiccone 13(Ted Piccone Senior Fellow and Deputy Director, Foreign Policy, Brookings

Institute, Time to Bet on Cuba March 18, 2013http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havana,RLA)

Under Castro, the Cuban government has undertaken important reforms to modernize andliberalize the economy. Cubans arenow permitted to buy and sell property, open their ownbusinesses, hire employees and enter into co-ops, with state-owned enterprises ona moreequal footing.The updating of the Soviet-style economic system is a gradual and highlycontrolled process. But the recent legal emergence of formal, small-scale private businesses(cuentapropistas) that can now compete on amore equal footingwith state-owned enterprisesopens a window into a profound shift in thinking already under way on the island. The reformsalso offernew opportunities for U.S. engagement . Castros loosening of the apron stringsextends beyond the economy. In January, the Cuban government lifted exit controls for most

citizens,which is likely to accelerate the process of reconciliation within the Cuban diaspora. Itcould also result in a swift uptick of Cubans departing for the United States, demanding areconsideration of U.S. migration policy to manage the increase. The gradual handoff of

power to a next generation of more pragmatic party and military leaders who will

determine the pace and scope of the reform process is yet further evidence that the Castrogeneration is looking forward to securing a viable legacy.

Lifting the Embargo would pressure Cuba for rapid reformsCave, 12foreign correspondent for The New York Times, based in Mexico City and has a B.A.from Boston College and an M.S. from Columbia University's Graduate School of Journalism(Damien, Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo, NY Times, 11/19/12,

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//EX

Still, in a country where Cubans resolve their way around government restrictions every day (private deals with customs agents are common), many Cubans anticipate real benefits should theUnited States change course. Mr. Lpez, a meticulous mechanic who wears plastic gloves toavoid dirtying his fingers, said legalizing imports and investment would create a flood of thesupplies that businesses needed, overwhelming the governments controls while lowering pricesand creating more work apart from the state.Other Cubans, including political dissidents , saysoftening the embargo would increase the pressure for more rapid change by undermining one ofthe governments main excuses for failing to provide freedom, economic opportunity or just basicsupplies.Last month, someone asked me to redo their kitchen, but I told them I couldnt do it

because I didnt have the materials, said Pedro Jos, 49, a licensed carpenter in Havana who didnot want his last name published to avoid government pressure.Look around Cuba isdestroyed, he added, waving a hand toward a colonial building blushing with circles of faded

pink paint from the 1950s. There is a lot of work to be done.

Slow change key to Cuban reform - avoids rapid regime collapseFeinberg 11- professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident seniorfellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., Reaching Out: Cubas New

http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havanahttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//EXhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//EXhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//EXhttp://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-for-easing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//EXhttp://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2013/01/opening-to-havana

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Economy and the International Response, November, Brookings,http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)//ID

Gradualism: Gradualism in economic reformas opposed to an Eastern European-style suddenregime collapseappears to be the most likely scenario that Cuba will follow. As a result of

economic reforms, albeit halting and partial, Cuba today is different from the Cuba of 1989 . In2011, Cubas current leadership, however aging and proud, promulgated reform guidelines thatrecognize the imperative of change and that empower the pro-reform factions. Moreover, assuggested by successful Asian experiences (Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, China), wherepolitical leadership provides stability and continuity, gradualism can be a feasibleindeed it maywellbe the only realisticoption. Gradualism must not, however, be an excuse for policyparalysis or a smoke-screen for maintenance of the status quo.

Rapid change risks Cuban civil warFeinberg 11- professor of international political economy at UC San Dieg, nonresident seniorfellow with the Latin America Initiative at Brookings (Richard E., Reaching Out: Cubas NewEconomy and the International Response, November, Brookings,

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)//IDSome in the United States have long supported severe sanctions intended to starve the Cubanregime of resources and thereby precipitate a political breakdown . Yet, within the nationalsecurity bureaucracy of the U .S . Executive Branch, notwithstanding occasional presidentialrhetoric, there is a strong preference for gradual, peaceful evolution in Cuba . A suddenbreakdown, it is feared, would entail substantial risks for U .S . interests, including animmigration crisis right off of our shores, and in the worst case, irresistiblepressures forintervention to quell a bloody civil war and halt a mass exodus of refugees.

This turns every part of the aff

NAM, 1editor of Foreign Policy (MOISS, When Countries go Crazy, MARCH 1, 2001,http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2001/03/01/when_countries_go_crazy)//eek

Some countries can drive other countries crazy. When people have this effect on one another, it isbecause of imbalances in the brains neurotransmitters. With countries, it often happens becauseof the disproportionate influence of special interests. Cuba, for example, has long driven theUnited States crazy. Just think of the Bay of Pigs invasion or the outsourcing of Castro'sassassination to the Mafia. For more recent examples of irrational behavior, think of the Helms-Burton Law or Elin. The problem is that Cuba not only drives the United States crazy but alsoseems to induce some acute form of learning disability among U.S. politicians. Cuba makes themforget -- or unlearn -- everything the world has painfully discovered about the transition fromcommunism. This knowledge can be distilled into five simple maxims: Lesson one: Failure is

more common than success in the transition to a democratic market economy. Lesson two: Theless internationally integrated, more centralized, and more personalized a former communistregime was, the more traumatic and unsuccessful its transition will be. Lesson three: Dismantlinga communist state is far easier and faster than building a functional replacement for it. Lessonfour: The brutal, criminal ways of a powerful Communist party with a tight grip on publicinstitutions are usually supplanted by the brutal, criminal ways of powerful private businessconglomerates with a tight grip on public institutions. Lesson five: Introducing a market economywithout a strong and effective state capable of regulating it gives resourceful entrepreneurs more

http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)/IDhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)/IDhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdfhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)/IDhttp://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/11/18%20cuba%20feinberg/1118_cuba_feinberg.pdf)/ID

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incentive to emulate Al Capone than Bill Gates. It is therefore safe to assume that if the Castroregime suddenly implodes, Cuba will end up looking more like Albania than the Bahamas. Butthat is not the assumption on which U.S politicians base their efforts to hasten Castro's demise.Although a lot of money, political capital, and thought have been expended trying to overthrowthe Cuban government, ideas about what to do the morning after are scarce and often unrealistic.They usually hinge on the expectation that in the post-Castro era democracy will emerge and

Cuban-American exiles will lead other investors in transforming Cuba into a capitalist hub. Morelikely is that instead of a massive flow of foreign investment into Cuba, the United States will geta massive inflow of refugees escaping the chaos of a post-Castro regime. Frictions betweenCuban-Cubans and Miami-Cubans will make politics nasty and unstable. New investments andprivatizations will be mired in the legal mess produced by the 5,911 claims to property in Cuba(valued at more than $17 billion) that have been filed with the United States Claims Commissionby former property owners. (That amounts to nearly seven years' worth of Cuban exports.) TheCuban public sector is inextricably intertwined with the Communist Party, so the demise of theparty will paralyze the government, at least for a while. And the cost of any resultinghumanitarian crisis will mainly be borne by U.S. taxpayers, who will likely pay much more thanthe $2 billion spent containing the influx of Haitian refugees in 1994. But can't the World Bank,the Inter-American Development Bank, and the International Monetary Fund support Cuba's

transition with money, experts, and projects? Sure, except that the United States forbids themfrom spending even a dollar to prepare themselves and Cuba for the coming transition. The resultis that these institutions are not ready to help Cuba. Again, the United States forgets a usefullesson from another continent: The day after Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin shook hands at theWhite House in 1993, the World Bank -- which had been instructed to prepare for the event --was immediately ready to lend and invest in projects under the control of the PalestinianAuthority, even though the authority was not and still is not a member of the bank. Allowing suchan initiative in Cuba's case would cost U.S. taxpayers nothing and would help plan for thechallenges ahead. Also, training Cuban professionals to run a modern market economy is boundto be a better investment for the United States than blocking academic exchanges with the island.The rational, self-interested approach for the United States that also avoids much future humanpain in Cuba is to concentrate all efforts on ensuring as smooth a transition as possible. This

view, of course, is not shared by all. U.S. Senator Jesse Helms recently said that "the opponentsof the Cuban embargo are about to run into a brick wall on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue.President Bush is a committed supporter of the embargo." The failure of the U.S. trade embargoagainst Cuba to achieve its stated objectives over the last 40 years is dismissed by Senator Helmsand some Cuban-Americans who argue that the embargo has never been vigorously implemented.Perhaps, as Senator Helms predicts, things are about to change and the aging Cuban dictator willfinally fall. If Cuba collapses and becomes a failed state 90 miles away from U.S. shores, theepicenter of the Caribbean drug trade, the source of a massive flood of refugees to the UnitedStates, a corruption haven, and a black hole for substantial sums of U.S. aid, President Bush willhave no one to blame but himself. Or, more precisely, the powerful interest groups that blindedhim to the lessons of experience

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Case

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Ag turn

Removing the embargo crushes sustainable Cuban agricultureCarmen G.Gonzalez, Assistant Professor, Seattle University School of Law, Summer2003, SEASONS OF RESISTANCE:SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY IN CUBA, p. 729-33

Notwithstanding these problems, the greatest challenge to the agricultural development strategy adopted by the Cuban

government in the aftermath of the Special Period is likely to be external the renewal of trade relations with the United

States. From the colonial era through the beginning of the Special Period, economic development in Cuba has

been constrained by Cubas relationship with a series of primary trading partners.

Cubas export-oriented sugar monocultureand its reliance on imports to satisfy domestic food needs

was imposed by the Spanish colonizers, reinforced by the United States, and

maintained during the Soviet era. It was not until the collapse of the socialist trading

bloc and the strengthening of the U.S. embargo that Cuba was able to embark upon a

radically different development path. Cuba was able to transform its agricultural development model as a

consequence of the political and economic autonomy occasioned by its relative economic isolation, including its exclusion from

major international financial and trade institutions. Paradoxically, whilethe U.S. embargosubjected Cuba to immense

economic hardship, it alsogave the Cuban government free rein to adopt agricultural policies

that ran counter to the prevailing neoliberal model and that protected Cuban farmers

against ruinous competition from highly subsidized agricultural producers in the

United States and the European Union. Due to U.S. pressure, Cuba was excluded from regional and

international financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Inter-American

Development Bank.n413 Cuba also failed to reach full membership in any regional trade association and was barred from the

negotiations for the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). However, as U.S. agribusiness clamors to ease trade restrictions

with Cuba, the lifting of the embargo and the end of Cubas economic isolation may only be a matter of time. It is unclear how

the Cuban government will respond to the immense political and economic pressure from the United States to enter into

bilateral or multilateral trade agreements that would curtail Cuban sovereignty and erode protection for Cuban

agriculture.n416If Cuba accedes to the dictates of agricultural trade liberalization, it

appears likely that Cubas gains in agricultural diversification and food self-

sufficiency will be undercut by cheap, subsidized food imports from the United States

and other industrialized countries. Furthermore, Cubas experiment with organic and

semi-organic agriculture may be jeopardized ifthe Cuban government is either unwilling or unable to

restrict the sale of agrochemicals to Cuban farmers as the Cuban government failed to restrict U.S. rice imports in the first

half of the twentieth century.Cuba is once again at a crossroadsas it was in 1963, when the government

abandoned economic diversification, renewed its emphasis on sugar production, and replaced its trade dependence on the

United States with trade dependence on the socialist bloc. In the end, the future of Cuban agriculture will likely turn on a

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combination of external factors (such as world market prices for Cuban exports and Cubas future economic integration with

the United States) and internal factors (such as the level of grassroots and governmental support for the alternative

development model developed during the Special Period). While this Article has examined the major pieces of legislation that

transformed agricultural production in Cuba, and the governments implementation of these laws, it is important to remember

that these reforms had their genesis in the economic crisis of the early 1990s and in the creative legal, and extra -legal, survival

strategies developed by ordinary Cubans. The distribution of land to thousands of small producers and the promotion of urban

agriculture were in response to the self-help measures undertaken by Cuban citizens during the Special Period. As the

economic crisis intensified, Cuban citizens spontaneously seized and cultivated parcels of land in state farms, along the

highways, and in vacant lots, and started growing food in patios, balconies, front yards, and community gardens. Similarly, the

opening of the agricultural markets was in direct response to the booming black market and its deleterious effect on the states

food distribution system. Finally, it was the small private farmer, the neglected stepchild of the Revolution, who kept alive the

traditional agroecological techniques that formed the basis of Cubas experiment with organic agriculture. The survival of

Cubas alternative agricultural model will therefore depend, at least in part, on whether this model is viewed by Cuban citizens

and by the Cuban leadership as a necessary adaptation to severe economic crisis or as a path-breaking achievement worthy of

pride and emulation. The history of Cuban agriculture has been one of resistance and accommodation to larger economic and

political forces that shaped the destiny of the island nation. Likewise, the transformation of Cuban agriculture has occurred

through resistance and accommodation by Cuban workers and farmers to the hardships of the Special Period.The lifting

of the U.S. economic embargo and the subjection of Cuba to the full force of economic

globalization will present an enormous challenge to the retention of an agricultural

development model borne of crisis and isolation. Whether Cuba will be able to resist

the re-imposition of a capital-intensive, export-oriented, import-reliant agricultural

model will depend on the ability of the Cuban leadership to appreciate the benefits of

sustainable agriculture and to protect Cubas alternative agricultural model in the

face of overwhelming political and economic pressure from the United States and

from the globaltrading system.

Lifting the embargo isnt key changes are required in Cuba only the CP doesthatinvestment in agriculture can be jumpstarted through remittancesShkolnick their author, 12 - J.D. Candidate, Drake University Law School (Jacob, SIN

EMBARGO: n1 THE CUBAN AGRICULTURAL REVOLUTION AND WHAT IT MEANSFOR THE UNITED STATES 17 Drake J. Agric. L. 683, Fall, lexis) VI. New Opportunities While investment in Cuban businesses and sales or purchases of Cubanproducts must still move through official channels under the joint venture law or other Cubanprograms, the time is ripe for organizations in the United States to begin laying groundwork forcloser ties with Cuban agricultural entities. Recent regulatory changes implemented by theU.S. government provide a means for individuals and businesses to begin forming the

relationships with their Cuban counterparts that will lead to future tradeopportunities.

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n161 As previously mentioned, recent changes in U.S. policy now allow for any individual in theUnited States, not simply relatives, to donate money to Cuban citizens, though not to exceed $500 for any three month consecutive period, with the only restriction being that the recipient isnot an official in the Cuban [*704] government or the Communist Party. n162 Specificallywritten into these new regulations is the idea that these remittances may be spent "to supportthe development of private businesses."n163 A five hundred dollar infusion of capital tosupport a fledging business or farm can be enormously beneficial when the average monthlysalary is only 448 pesos, or approximately twenty dollars. n164 Additional capital willenable small Cuban farms to expand operationsby hiring additional help or perhapspurchasing additional farm animals. While purchasing a tractor may seem like an obvious choicefor a growing farm, Medardo Naranjo Valdes of the Organoponico Vivero Alamar, a UBPC justoutside of Havana, indicated that farm animals such as oxen would remain the preferred choicefor the foreseeable future on the small and midsized farms that make up the majority of the neweragricultural cooperatives. n165 Not only do farm animals not require gasoline or incurmaintenance costs beyond perhaps an occasional veterinarian charge, their waste can be used asfertilizer. Apart from additional labor, funds provided to agricultural cooperatives could be put touse in developing innovative pest control techniques that do not require the use of expensivepesticides or other chemicals. The Vivero Alamar is currently experimenting with a variety of

natural pest control techniques such as introducing plants that serve as natural repellents to insectsand the introduction of other insects that feed on harmful pests without harming the crops. n166Investment in agricultural cooperativesdone in this manner will likely fail to see much returnon the investment for their foreseeable future, until policies in both the United States and Cubaarechanged. n167 For a relatively small sum, American investors will get not only the benefit ofa close relationship with a Cuban farm that will become a new source of both import and export

business in the future, but potentially gain access to innovative agricultural techniques that could

be used in the United States immediately . n168 Because the logistical structure needed totransport goods from large rural farms into city markets remains underdeveloped, urban andsuburban agriculture makes up a growing portion of the food produced and consumed in Cuba.n169 As in other countries, the population trends in Cuba have continued to shift away from rural

areas to more concentrated urban and suburban areas, with about [*705] three-fourths of Cubansliving in cities. n170 With this shift in population has also come a shift in the country'sagricultural system. As of 2007, about 15% of all agriculture in Cuba could be classified as urbanagriculture. n171 Not only have agricultural practices changed, but eating habits have as well.Without the Soviet Union to provide a ready source of income and the machinery needed toengage in large-scale livestock production, vegetable consumption has increased dramatically.n172 Nearly every urban area has direct access to a wide variety of locally grown, organicproduce. n173 Many of the urban farms in Cuba, including the Vivero Alamar, make use oforganoponics, a system where crops are produced in raised beds of soil on land that wouldotherwise be incapable of supporting intensive agricultural production. n174 Many of these raisedbeds can be constructed in a concentrated area to support a wide variety of produce, with thetypical organoponic garden covering anywhere from one half to several hectares in size. n175

The rise of the organoponic production method was a shift away from the earlier centralizedproduction model employed by the state. It has been supported through intensive research anddevelopment by a variety of state agencies, such as the National Institute of Agricultural Science,and continued development has been guided through intensive training and educational programs.n176 The organoponic system is not limited in itsapplication to Cuban urban farms, but

maintains potential to be applied worldwide , including in the United States. Urban agriculturein Cuba revitalized and put to use previously abandoned and unused land. A similar approachcould be applied to the United States as a means to restore blighted areas. n177 Applying Cuban-

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derived organoponics in U.S. cities could potentially open up an enormous amount of land thatwas previously unusable. From a business perspective, investing in an organoponic agriculturalprogram in the United States is also a sound decision since the demand for local produce reached$ 4.8 billion in 2008 and is only expected to grow further, potentially reaching $ 7 billion in 2012.n178 [*706] In an American city beset with high unemployment such as Detroit, Michigan, forexample, investing in urban agriculture could potentially generate as many as five thousand new

jobs. n179 By utilizing Cuba's system of organoponics, the need to use expensive and complexfarm machinery could be significantly reduced. Already companies in the United States, such asFarmscape Gardens in southern California, recognize what Cuba's organoponic system couldachieve and have integrated it into their business practices. n180 Rachel Bailin, a partner in thecompany, indicated that it was Cuba's organic farming practices that helped inspire them to start acompany devoted to urban agriculture. n181 They have already used Cuba's organoponic farmingmethods to produce more than 50,000 pounds of produce since the spring of 2009. n182 Thepotential for future growth in this industry is huge, as Farmscape Gardens' current levels ofproduction make it the largest urban agriculture company in the state of California. n183 Cubanot only offers attractive prospects for trading in the future, but methods of agriculture pioneeredout of necessity have broad prospects if applied to agriculture in the United States. As the demandfor locally grown produce continues to increase, a cost-effective and proven agricultural model

like Cuba's organoponic system may be just what is needed to allow for urban agriculture toflourish.

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Multilat

Aggression is all talkdiplomacy outweighs posturingThe Economist 11 (A rivalry that threatens the world, 5/19/11,http://www.economist.com/node/18712274)//SJF

Talking, not shooting Trouble on the border is not a theoretical problem; it is commonplace.Exchanges of fire between Pakistanis and Indians over the border in Kashmir killed an

Indian soldier this weekend.This time it did not escalate, in part because the two countriesare in the midst of diplomatic efforts.But India's prime minister, Mr Singh, ordered a reviewby his security chiefs. Some in India have been trying to ease tensions with Pakistan.MrSingh, born before partition in territory that is now Pakistan, is personally eager to do so (thoughothers in his government, and hawkish opposition parties, disagree). He tried cricket

diplomacy this year, inviting his counterpart, Yusuf Raza Gilani, to watch India play Pakistanin the cricket World Cup. He is the driving force on bilateral talks on trade, water andcounter-terrorism, which should culminate in the next few months in a meeting of foreignministers. Encouragingly, on Pakistan's side, civilians also seem open to talks. It helps, too, thatKashmir has fallen quiet in recent months, though that may be merely seasonal. Nawaz Sharif,the main opposition leader, who as prime minister in 1999 came close to striking a peace dealwith India, dared to suggest on May 16th that Pakistan would make progress only when itstopped treating India as its biggest enemy.As controversially, he called for a cut inpublic funds for the army. Yet suspicion lingers. General Kayani told a diplomat in Islamabadrecently that he backs peace efforts with India, but he has done little about it. And the army hasan interest in maintaining at least the illusion of an Indian threat to protect its bloated budget andspecial privileges. In private, too, many remain gloomy. Talks, let alone a deal, may simply spurthe terrorists to another atrocity. General Mahmud Ali Durrani, a former ambassador to Americawho supports peace talks, feels that the army's insecurity is too big a problem. I don't thinkwe are flying. The security elements are not so enamoured by the idea. They feel India never

accepted Pakistan, and given half a chance [the Indians] would undo it.

Cuba Policy cant solve multilateralism recent OAS meetings prove severalbarriers to multilateralismReuters 12, their 1ac card (Brian Ellsworth, Despite Obama charm, Americas summit boostsU.S. isolation, 4/16/12, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/16/us-americas-summit-obama-idUSBRE83F0UD20120416)//GPastor(Reuters) - President Barack Obama sat patiently through diatribes, interruptions and eventhe occasional eye-ball roll at the weekend Summit of the Americas in an effort to win overLatin American leaders fed up with U.S. policies.He failed. The United States instead

emerged from the summit in Colombia increasingly isolatedas nearly 30 regional heads ofstate refused to sign a joint declaration in protest against the continued exclusion of communist-led Cuba from the event. The rare show of unity highlights the steady decline ofWashington's influence in a region that has become less dependent on U.S. trade and

investment thanks economic growth rates that are the envy of the developed world and newopportunities with China. It also signals a further weakening of the already strainedhemispheric system of diplomacy, built around the Organization of American States (OAS)which has struggled to remain relevant during a time of rapid change for its members . Seenas an instrument of U.S. policy in Latin America during the Cold War, the OAS has lost

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ground in a region that is no longer content with being the backyard of the United States. "Itseems the United States still wants to isolate us from the world, it thinks it can still

manipulate Latin America, but that's ending," said Bolivian President Evo Morales, a fiercecritic of U.S. policy in Latin America and staunch ally of Venezuela's leftist leader Hugo Chavez."What I think is that this is a rebellion of Latin American countries against the United States."NEWFOUND UNITY White House officials disagreed with the notion that the failure toagree on issues like Cuba signaled a new dynamic to U.S. relations within the hemisphere."We've had disagreements on those issues for decades," a senior Obama aide said. "Theyare built into the equation. They are about theater -- not substance."

No Impact to prolonging all impediments to normalized relationsCubainevitably succeeds without US supportDickerson 10Lieutenant Colonel, US Army, paper submitted in fulfillment of a Master ofStrategic Studies Degree at the US Army War College (Sergio M, UNITED STATESSECURITY STRATEGY TOWARDS CUBA, 1/14/10,http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a518053.pdf)//GpastorThe logical question with regards to current U.S.Cuba policy is whether its feasible to

continue the current policy. At least for the foreseeable future, the answer is yes . It equates

to doing nothing diplomatically, militarily and economically. Perhaps this 15option isappealing given a robust domestic agenda and U.S. involvement in two wars.According toProfessor Schwab and other experts however, the U.S. has lost the information campaign targetedat the Cuban people. It has only, buttressed Fidels popularity in Cuba and elsewhere,which eviscerates the very purposes the embargo was set up for.30 Its like the classicbiblical story of David triumphing over Goliaththe bigger the oppressor the greater the victory.True or not, Fidel has made the case successfully to the Cuban people. While its feasibleforthe U.S. to pursue the current coursethere is no evidence it will succeed.How acceptable is it to U.S. foreign policy? There are three elements of national power thathighlight our current policy: diplomacy, economy and law enforcement.It is subjective to

evaluate acceptability strictly in terms of current national power invested and subsequent pay offsin foreign policy. U.S. needs international cooperation to achieve the coercive effects that onlycomplete economic strangulation can accomplish. This is tough to do and North Korea and Iranbear this true. If we look at it from a broader international and economic perspective we can beginto see why its not acceptable. Take a UN General Assembly vote renouncing the U.S.-ledembargo on Cuba for instance; since1992 there has been overwhelming vote to end theembargo.31 In essence, it has garnered sympathy for Castro and encouraged western nations likeCanada and Spain to continue open relations with Cuba. Even if the embargo could work, U.S.diplomacy has failed to yield the international tourniquet needed to bring change in Cuba.

Applying economic force without first garnering the necessary diplomatic support failed to

achieve intended changes succeeding instead in hurting the Cuban people it hoped toprotect.Whether or not an embargo can work in Cubais suspect but succeeding without

international support is impossible.Since the embargo hinges on a larger multinationalparticipation, international and not just U.S. acceptability is necessary to achieve U.S. endsin Cuba.

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Say no

Castro eliminates free trade with the UScounter-revolutionaryMargulies, 8JD, New York University (Michael, STRONGER TRADE OR STRONGEREMBARGO: WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS FOR UNITED STATES-CUBA RELATIONS 8Asper Rev. Int'l Bus. & Trade L. 147, lexis)Should all the requisite factors fall into place on the U.S. side in order to ease or lift theexisting trade restrictions against the export of agricultural commodities - oreven allowother forms of trade - there is no guarantee that Cuba will seize the opportunityto enterinto such an enhanced relationship with the United States.As evidenced by its initialrejection of the U.S. offer to export agricultural goods in 2001, immediately following the

adoption of TSRA, n155 Cuba may be less willing [*174] to accept such an offer than aneconomic analysis would indicate. For Cuba, U.S. commodities - whether agricultural or ofanother nature - may be significantly cheaper than those offered by other trade partners, as

a result of the proximity between the two countries and the related transportation costs.n156 The Cuban government, however, whether under the leadership of Fidel or Raul, has

very strong ideals and convictions when it comes to relations with the United States. Thesemay impede the expansion of any such trade.It is well known that one of the central tenets of the Cuban Revolution and the Castro regimeis a strong policy against "neo-liberal globalization," the United States and capitalist

imperialism. n157 These convictions may lead Cuba to balk at the opportunity to takeadvantage of some forms of trade with the United States. Such selectivity has been presenteven under TSRA-authorized trade with Alimport. Cuba has claimed that the reduction inpurchasesby Alimport in 2005 came not as a result of tightened restrictions by the Bushadministration and subsequent difficulties working out contracts with U.S. agricultural

entities, but rather as a result of "efforts by the government of the Republic of Cuba toincrease the motivation of United States-based companies,organization; state and localgovernmental representatives; and Members of the United States Congress to be more visible in

their lobbying efforts for changes in United States policy, law and regulations." n158