1d fish banks, ltd. v 8.02 © 2004 dennis l. meadows debriefing fishbanks an example of game...
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1DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Debriefing FishBanks
An example of game debriefing
Dennis Meadows
Uppsala University; 11/5/2015
2DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Reflecting on the Game
• Video of an actual fishing system (optional)
• Performance of the teams• Alternative strategies• Why did that happen?• What can be done?
3DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Summary of Game Behavior
FISH BOATS CATCH
123456789
10
0
YEAR
INDEX
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
FISH CATCHSHIPS
4DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Typical Game Behavior
FishShipsShips8
6
4
2
0
INDEX
Catch
Ships
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
YEAR
5DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Typical Game Behavior - Fleet
0
10
20
3040
50
60
70
80
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7YEAR
SHIPS
TOTAL FLEET
6DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Typical Game Behavior - Catch
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
YEAR
Fishper
Year
Deep SeaCatch
CoastalCatch
7DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Typical Game Behavior - Fish Population
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
YEAR
FISH
Deep Sea
Coastal
8DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Does fish depletion happen in real life?
• Pacific sardine fishery
• Peruvian anchovy fishery
• North Sea Herring• Georges Bank Cod
fish
9DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Pacific Sardine Catch
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
10DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Peruvian Anchovy Catch
YEAR
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Estimated Maximum Sustainable Catch
11DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
North Sea Herring Catch
Mark Wise, Common Fisheries Policy of the European Community, New York, Methuen, 1984.
a
0200400600800100012001400
North Seaherring ban
12DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Georges Bank Codfish Catch
aa
Year00000101010101020202020203030303030404040404050505050506060606060
13DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Total World Fish Catch
Source: Fisheries of the United States. US Dept. of Commerce.
YEAR
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
14DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Global Fisheries Depletion
Region
Northwest Atlantic
Northeast Atlantic
Southeast Atlantic
Northwest Pacific
Northeast Pacific
Southeast Pacific
Total
Species
CodHaddockCapelinHerring
Herring
Pilchard
Salmon
Halibut PerchKing Crab
Anchoveta
Potential
1,350 100 500 300
2,250
600 350
38 210 40
2-5,000*
10,738
1988 Catch
643 36 110 284
1394
66 258
43 33 10
2,877
5754
Loss
707 64 390 16
856
534
92
-5 177 30
2,123
4,984
Source: United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, "Review of World Fishery Resources," Rome 1990.*Potential use to be 9,-11,000,000 tons before the collapse in the 1960s. The new potential is more likely 2-
5,000,000 tons, but the stock is highly variable.
Thousands of Tons
15DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
New England Fisheries - Hard Times
I remember catching 5,000 pounds of fish in eight nets. Today, it might take up to 80 nets. Back then, the average codfish in the spring would probably be 25 to 40 pounds. Now, it's 5 to 8 pounds." - Peter Morse
"Go down to the docks and talk to the guys down there," said John Nelson, chief of the Marine Fisheries Division of the state Fish and Game Department. "Most of them have their boats for sale. If they could sell their boats and do something else, they would.Source: Clare Kittredge, "N.H. Fish Story Is Not a Happy One," Boston Globe.
February 4, 1990.
16DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Present Value of the Fishery
The maximization of the present value of the fishery by employing an optimum dynamic strategy need not but can imply extinctions of the fishery. Does this mean that economists would recommend the extinction of fish species under appropriate market conditions? Social decisions take place in a multiple-objective or multiple-criterion framework of which economic net benefits are but one criterion. The responsible economist would generate information on the present values of the fishery under different schemes of management. If the highest present value of net benefits appears to be generated by a pattern of fishing that eventually would exterminate the fish stock, this would be stated, along with the information on other schemes that would preserve a viable fish stock. The decision makers then would understand the tradeoffs involved and could proceed with their decision.Source: Charles W. Howe, "The Management of Fisheries," in Natural Resource
Economics, John Wiley & Sons, 1979.
17DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Dietary Importance of Fish Population
At present, fish comprise 34 percent of the animal-
protein for the world's population; in developing
nations, more than 40 percent.
Source: "Assaulting the Seas: Rising Human Tide Overwhelms Oceans," The ZPG Reporter, July 1991.
18DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Other Importance of Fish Population
• provides export earnings for poor nations
• important source of jobs and income
• foundation for the culture of many regions and towns
• supports a diverse ecosystem
19DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Alternative Strategies
1
2
3Maximum
SustainableCatch
TIME
CATCH
-
-
-
-
20DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
What Happened?
What caused the overshoot and collapse?
Who was responsible?
21DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Causes of Overshoot
• poor understanding of the level and the causes of the limit
• science is inadequate, market prices confuse the issue, those with a short-term vested interest misrepresent the situation
• momentum in the system
• long delays in deciding, responding, affecting
22DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Causes of Collapse
Collapse happens when the process of overshooting lowers the limit, and it takes a long time for the system to recover.
23DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Examples of Collapse
• drinking too much alcohol
• cutting too many trees
• abusing trust and good will - phone marketing
• relying on debt
• building too many offices or residences
• misleading accounting
• ozone layer, ground water, agricultural soils
24DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Avoiding Collapse
• understand the limit
• reduce the momentum or look ahead
• speed up response
• avoid the destruction of the system in ways that lower the limit.
• what is the role of technology?
25DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
Impact of Technology on Ship Effectiveness
0 MAXIMUM0
HIGH TECHNOLOGY
LOWTECHNOLOGY
CATCHPER
SHIP-YEAR
FISH DENSITY
-
-
-
-
-
26DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
The Fisheries System: Fish
TOTALCATCH
FISH
DENSITY
REGENERATION
+-+-, +(+-,)
27DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
The Fisheries System: Catch
PROFIT
SHIPS
INVESTMENT
DESIREDGROWTH
INCOME
FISHPRICE
TOTALCATCH
FISH
DENSITY
CATCH PERSHIPOPERATINGCOSTS
PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION
COSTS
-+-
++
++
++ +++
-(-)
(-)(+)
CATCH
+
28DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
The Fisheries System: Investment
PROFIT
SHIPS
INVESTMENT
DESIREDGROWTH
INCOME
FISHPRICE
TOTALCATCH
OPERATINGCOSTS
PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION
COSTS
-+-
++
++
++ +
(-)(+)
(+)
+,-
29DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
The Fisheries System Structure
PROFIT
SHIPS
INVESTMENT
DESIREDGROWTH
INCOME
FISHPRICE
TOTALCATCH
FISH
DENSITY
CATCH PERSHIP
REGENERATION
OPERATINGCOSTS
PURCHASE ANDCONSTRUCTION
COSTS
-+-
++
++
++ +++
+-+-, +
(-)(+-,)
(-)(+)
(+)
+,-
30DFish Banks, Ltd. V 8.02 © 2004 Dennis L. Meadows
What can be done?
• Partition the seas• Establish quotas• Farm fish• Move down food chain• Change consumption preferences• Reduce destruction and pollution
of fisheries• Limit ship fleets, technology• Develop better methods to assess
stock• Change social values and
economic incentives