1c – business case of the unmanned vessels
TRANSCRIPT
SST.2012.5.2-5: Grant no. 314286 E-guided vessels: The 'autonomous' ship
Business case of the unmanned vessel
MUNIN Final Event June 10th 2015, Hamburg, Germany
Dipl.-Ing.oec. Lutz Kretschmann Research Associate
Fraunhofer CML
http://www.unmanned-ship.org
Agenda
Introduction
Methodology of analysis
Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship
Business case scenarios
2
From Research and Innovation to Market Deployment
3
Successful introduction of innovative technologies depends on:
Technical feasibility
Regulatory compliance
Proven safety
Economic viability
Trade-off Between Increased Capital Costs and Reduced Crew Costs
4
Crew in SCC
Crew on board
Capital cost
0
50
100
150
200
250
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
Future development?
Short term application
MUNIN long term vision
Principal correlation of crew size and new building cost
Crew size development of ocean going ships
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Agenda
Introduction
Methodology of analysis
Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship
Business case scenarios
5
Scope of Analysis
6
Unmanned ship
Reduced crew
New ship designs
Improved safety
Intelligent ship
Optimized (weather) routing
Onboard energy efficiency management
Voyage performance management
Condition monitoring and management
Efficient ship
Hull form optimization
Energy-saving devices
Machinery technology
Innovations in waterborne transport
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Shipping Cash-flow Model
If cost over lifetime of unmanned autonomous bulker is lower than cost of conventional bulker it will generate a higher free cash flow
7
Capital Cost Operating Cost Voyage Cost
Ship Revenue Depends on: 1. Cargo capacity 2. Productivity 3. Freight rates
Free cash flow
Source: Stopford 2009
Methodology of Analysis
8
Cost model of conv. bulker: 1. Capital Cost 2. Operational Cost 3. Voyage Cost
a. Identify differences b. Model & calculate effects
Cost model of MUNIN bulker: 1. Capital Cost 2. Operational Cost 3. Voyage Cost
1
2
3
Source: Fraunhofer CML
100%
50%
Cost-NPV
MUNIN bulker
Conventional bulker Calculate Net Present Value of cost over lifetime Compare Cost-NPV under different scenarios If Cost-NPV of MUNIN bulker is lower than Cost-
NPV of conventional bulker unmanned autonomous ship is favorable
4
Agenda
Introduction
Methodology of analysis
Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship
Business case scenarios
9
Operating Cost – Changes for the MUNIN Bulker
10
Operating cost conventional bulker
Insurance
General Costs
13%
45%
Operating Cost
15%
Maint. & Repair
13%
Stores & Consumables
14%
Crew Cost
Changes
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Unmanned Ship Requires Land Based Services
11
Additional cost for land based services: 1. Shore control center
• Personnel cost • Equipment, rent, etc.
2. Maintenance crews in port
Crew is shifted from ship to shore
On board crew related cost is reduced
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Voyage Cost and Fuel Price
Impossible to predict how fuel prices
develop in future
Necessary to predict how fuel prices
develop in future
Approach based on forecast for
crude oil prices (IEA World Energy
Outlook)
Oil price is converted into fuel prices
(HFO/MDO) based on past ratio
12
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
HFO
MDO
20
14
20
13
20
12
20
11
20
10
20
09
20
08
20
07
20
06
20
05
HFO
Crude Oil
MDO 2020 2025 2030 2035
Crude Oil [USD/barrel] 119.5 121.9 123.6 125
Crude oil an fuel price development USD per tone
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012, Fraunhofer CML
Forecast base case
Voyage Cost – Changes for the MUNIN Bulker
13
14%
Fuel propulsion
69%
Voyage cost
Fuel e-power
17% Port cost
Voyage cost conventional bulker Changes
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Efficiency Gains Related to Unmanned Ship Design Considered in Analysis
14
Light Ship Weight (no deckshouse) Reduced fuel consumption
Hotel systems (no crew living on board) Reduced fuel consumption
Twin skeg / two engines design Additional fuel efficiency gains possible
Air resistance (no deckshouse) Reduced fuel consumption
Source: Fraunhofer CML
2
1
3
4
New Building Price of Panamax Bulk Carriers
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
34
Handysize
Panamax
Capsize
Development of bulker new building prices m USD
New building price volatile in
recent past
Average new building price for
panamax bulker over past 12
years was 34mUSD
Capital cost of conventional
bulker assumed to be 34mUSD
Source: EquityGate Advisors 2013, Fraunhofer CML
Changes in New Building Cost for Unmanned Ship Design
16
Propulsion: twin skeg & two engines
Autonomous ship technology (advances sensor module, deep-sea navigation system, etc.)
No deckhouse (reduced material & production cost)
No hotel (air conditioning, heating, ventilation, etc.)
Redundancy of technical systems (communication, e-system, etc.)
4
1
2
3
5
Source: Fraunhofer CML
Agenda
Introduction
Methodology of analysis
Cost of the unmanned autonomous ship
Business case scenarios
17
Base Scenario
18
Scenario description:
• Fuel price: med.
• New building: 110%
• Main fuel type: HFO
• Considers effects of
• Reduced crew
• Improved ship efficiency
Source: Fraunhofer CML
-3,4
-2,5 2,5 7,5 10,0 0,0 5,0
mUSD
+10,4 Crew cost
Higher newbuilding cost
+ 9,9
Land based services
MUNIN
+5,4
-2,5
Better fuel efficiency
MUNIN compared to a conventional bulker Expected present value over lifetime
Impact of Fuel Cost on Base Scenario
19
Scenario description:
• Fuel price: high/med./low
• New building: 110%
• Main fuel type: HFO
• Considers effects of
• Reduced crew
• Improved ship efficiency
Source: Fraunhofer CML
0
5
10
15
0
40
80
120
160
200
Oil price [USD/barrel]
Expected PV [mUSD]
High Medium Low
Advantageousness of MUNIN bulker for different fuel price scenarios
MDO Scenario
20
Scenario description:
• Fuel price: med.
• New building: 110%
• Main fuel type: MDO
• Considers effects of
• Reduced crew
• Improved ship efficiency
Source: Fraunhofer CML
MUNIN vs conventional bulker Expected present value of savings over lifetime
-3,4
-15 -10 -5 0 5 10
mUSD
MUNIN -14,9
MDO as fuel -19,4
Land based services
-2,5
Crew cost +10,4
Higher newbuilding cost
MDO & MDO Scenario
21
Scenario description:
• Fuel price: med.
• New building: 110%
• Main fuel type: MDO on
MUNIN & conv. bulker
• Considers effects of
• Reduced crew
• Improved ship efficiency
Source: Fraunhofer CML
MUNIN vs conventional bulker Expected present value of savings over lifetime
-3,4
-2,5 2,5 0,0 5,0 7,5 10,0 12,5 -5,0
mUSD
MUNIN +11,5
Better fuel efficiency
+7,0
Land based services
-2,5
Crew cost +10,4
Higher newbuilding cost
Scenario Reduced Crew Only
22
Scenario description:
• Fuel price: med.
• New building: 110%
• Main fuel type: HFO
• Considers effects of
• Reduced crew
• Improved ship efficiency
Source: Fraunhofer CML
MUNIN vs conventional bulker Expected present value of savings over lifetime
-3,4
-5,0 7,5 5,0 2,5 0,0 -2,5
mUSD
MUNIN + 1,3
Additional port call cost
-3,2
Land based services
-2,5
Crew cost +10,4
Higher newbuilding cost
Best Case Scenario
23
Scenario description:
• Fuel price: high
• New building: 80%
• Main fuel type: MDO on
MUNIN & conv. bulker
• Considers effects of
• Reduced crew
• Improved ship efficiency
• No onboard control team
Source: Fraunhofer CML
MUNIN vs conventional bulker Expected present value of savings over lifetime
10 5 0 25 20 15 30
+ 29,0 MUNIN
mUSD
Better fuel efficiency
+6,8
+14,3
Land based services
-2,5
Crew cost +10,4
Lower new building cost
Thank You!
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