1949 1949

1949:“Year of Change”

International Online Teaching Project

Beijing UniversityDepartment of History

北京大学历史学系

Free University BerlinEast Asian Seminar

Sinology

Mao Zedong Announces the Founding of the People’s Republic of China

Overview (I)

„1949 - Year of Change“: Peking University– Part One:

“Political Power Grows Out of the Barrel of a Gun”- Background of the Founding of People’s Republic of China

– Part Two: “Sweeping the house before inviting the guests”- New China’s Diplomatic Option

– Part Three: “New Democracy” or “Socialism”- China’s Political and Economic Choice in 1949

– Part Four: 1949 - Great Changes in China (Society, Culture)

Overview (II)

„1949 - Year of Change“: Free University Berlin– Varying interpretations

• 1950s Liberation vs. totalitarianism• 1966-76 China as a model for unorthodox socialism• Late 1970s-1980s “Empathy”• Present interpretation Neo-liberalism, “globalization”

Joint Internet Forum „1949 – Year of Change“

Part One“Political Power Grows Out of the Barrel of a Gun”

－－ Background of the Founding of People’s Republic of China

A Brief Review of Major Wars in the First Half of 20th Century

1900—1901 Boxer Uprising and the Invasion of the Allies

1904—1905 Russian-Japanese War

1911—1912 The 1911 Revolution and the War between North and South

1915 － 1916 Japan occupies German holdings in Shandong and presents the Twenty-one Demands to China, Yuan Shikai’s announces imperial aspirations, Start of the anti-Yuan National Protection (huguo)Movement 护国战争

1917 “Zhang Xun’s attempted imperial restoration ” 张勋复辟 ; the “Constitution Protection movement” in the South 1917” 护法战争

1920 Anfu-Zhili War 直皖战争

1922 First Zhili-Fengtian War 第一次直奉战争

1924 Second Zhili-Fengtian War 第二次直奉战争

1926—1928 The First Alliance of CCP and Kuomintang, Northern Expedition

1927—1937 The First Civil War, two wars between Chiang Kai-shek and Guangxi Warlords, War between Chiang Kai-shek and Feng Yuxiang, War between Chiang Kai-shek and Tang Shengzhi, Nanking troops defeat Feng and Yan

蒋桂战争，蒋冯战争，蒋唐战争1931—1945 Japanese Invasion of China, the Second Alliance

between CCP and Kuomintang, World War II

1945—1946 Negotiation between CCP and Kuomintang, Marshall Mission - Attempt to build a nation through peaceful and democratic ways

1946—1949 The Second Civil War

1949 Founding of the People’s Republic of China

1950—1953 The Korean War

Part Two“Sweeping the house before inviting the guests”

—New China’s Diplomatic Option

• “Cold War” and “Hot War” – International “Cold War” and Asian “Hot War” – The United States, England and Soviet Union’s visualization of

world order after the WWII – Yalta Conference, “Crisis” in Turkey Iran and Greece – Churchill’s “Curtain Speech”, Doctrine of Truman, Marshall’s Plan– Cold War Setup: division of Europe and confrontation of two

camps, military treaty organization, Berlin Crisis – The triangular relationship among China, Soviet Union and the

United States during the latter half of the Second World War – Stalin’s Far East strategy and attitude toward Chinese revolution – The Cold War’s impact on China and China’s response – Cold War and Hot War in Asia—from Korea to Vietnam

Top Left: China condemnes America in UN, December 28, 1950.

Bottom Left: Chinese territory bombed by American Plane

Right: Peasants protesting against America in the Korean War.

Political System

“Coalition Government” under the leadership of CCP, “the

Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference”

Building of Regime

“Provisional Constitution” ： the Common Program of the

Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference

Local Government

Military Control – Military and Administrative Commission –

the People’s Government

Ethnic Groups The practice of regional national autonomy

Economic System

Coexistence of many kinds of economic sectors: state

capital, collectivization (cooperative), capital owned by

national bourgeois, private economic sector, joint state-

private ownership

Thought and Practice of “New Democracy” (I)

Part Three“New Democracy” or “Socialism”

“Xin minzhizhuyi 新民主主义” - “shehuizhuyi 社会主义”--China’s Political and Economic Choice in 1949

Guiding Principle

Give consideration to both public and private interests,

benefit both the labor and the capital, mutual aid between

town and country, “moderating instead of eliminating

capitalism”

Land Reform Ownership by individual peasant – polarization between the

rich and the poor in the country

Distribution of Earnings

“Distribution according to work” and “distribution according

to capital”

Turbulence and Unrest

“Suppressing Counterrevolutionaries”, “Three-Antis

Campaign”, “Five-Antis Campaign”

Thought and Practice of “New Democracy” (II)

• “Transition”and “Transformation” of “Socialism” • Industrialization （ New Democracy) and

Nationalization （ Socialism ）先工业化（新民主主义），后国有化（社会主义）– contradiction between working class and bourgeoisie remains principal – Mao Zedong changes his opinion in June 1952: It takes 15 years to transit

from New Democracy to Socialism – General Line of the of transitional period

• Divergence of views in CCP– The Peasant: Work on one’s own or mutual aid and cooperation – What does the Labor Union stand for? The great mass or the CCP

• “Consolidate New Democracy” or “transition from New Democracy to Socialism”– New Tax System – “The Anti-Party Group of Gaogang and Raoshushi”

“ 高岗饶漱石反党集团事件 – What is “Socialism”?

• Political System:– Leadership of CCP, cooperation of multi-parties, people’s congress,

people’s democratic dictatorship • Economic System ：

– Planned Economy, public ownership of the means of production, distribution according to work, agricultural cooperation

Blueprint for the First Five-year Plan

Part Four

1949---Great Changes in China

• Re-structure of grass-roots society

– Rural Society before 1949

– Rural Society after 1949

– Cities before 1949

– Cities after 1949

• Improvement and Rectification of Religious Beliefs

– Ban reactionary secret societies （ such as yiguandao 一贯道 ） • Rectification of Christianity

– Three-self ： Self-administration, self-support, self-propagation

– Sever its connection with foreign religions

• Developing social organizations affiliated to CCP:

– the Labor Union, the Communist Youth League, the Women’s Federation,

the Student’s Federation 工会、共青团、妇女联合会、学生联合会

Changes of Social Convention and Custom • Decline of folk beliefs: from deities worship to leader worship • Marriage Law ends many forms of discrimination against women.

– “equality between man and woman”guaranteed by Marriage Law – from parental arranged marriage to freedom of mate choice – changing of marriage ceremony – growing rate of divorce

• Increasing of the Number of working women ：“ Women hold up half the sky.” 妇女能顶半边天 funü neng ding ban tian

• The nominal “birth control”and the baby boom • New fashion of consumption • Change in cloth style

– Traditional clothing: robe, long gown, mandarin jacket 传统服装长袍马褂 , zhongshangzhuang （ Chinese tunic suit ） 中山装 , dalimao （ top hat ）大礼帽

– New style cloth: ganbufu 干部服 （ cloth for the cadre ） , Lenin style cloth 列宁装 , jiefangmao 解放帽 （ hat of the People’s Republic of China ） , bulaji （ skirt ）

– Unchanged clothing style: Western style clothes 西服 , chi-pao 旗袍– Unchanged color: blue, gray, black

Women Engaging in All Kinds of Jobs in 1950s

New Outlook on Culture and Education • “Education should service the great number of workers, peasants,

soldiers and combine with labor.”教育为工农兵服务，与生产劳动相结合

– Disappearance of sishu 私塾 (old-style private school) and the establishment of three-level (primary school – middle school – college) education system

– “Rationale of our thought is Marxism-Leninism” – “Ideological Remolding” Movement for the Intellectuals

知识分子“思想改造”运动– Putonghua （ common speech of the Chinese language ） and

jianhuazi （ simplified Chinese characters ）普通话与简化字• Conflict between the old thought and the new ideology ：

– Criticism on culture ：– Criticism on film wuxunzhuan （ Biography of Wuxun ）武训传 , qinggongmishi

清宫秘史（ A Mystical History of the Qing Dynasty ） – Critique of Hongxue （ the study of the novel Hongloumeng ）红学批判 and the

thought of Hu Shi 胡适思想批判– Criticism on the literal thought of Hufeng 胡风文艺思想批判

1937-45 1945-49 1949

1958

1949:“Year of Change”

Civil war国共内战

Marriage law 婚姻法

Land reform土地改革

Three Antis Movement 三反运动

Five Antis Movement 五反运动

1st Five-Year-Plan(1953-57)

Hundred Flowers Movement 百花运动

Great Leap Forward 大跃进

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954 1956

19571955

Anti-Japanese

War抗日战争

“1949” - Perceptions• Historical events do not represent “objective” facts• The perception - is of much greater importance. • The perception depends on a variety of factors,

which have to be taken into account. To name but two:– different periods:

• the perception of the year 1949 in the 1950s was very different from the perception of 1949 in the 1990s; in the 1950s, it was seen against the background of the civil war and the war of resistance against Japan, and in the 1990s, 1949 was seen in the light of the “reform- and opening policy”.

– different groups:• including authors and their specific interests; thus, the socialist

states and the West interpreted the founding of the PRC very differently, and it will be shown that diametrically opposed perceptions of “liberation” vs. “totalitarianism” can be found in works written during the 1950s.

1945-491937-45 1949

1958

1949:“Year of Change”

Marriage law

Land reform

Three AntisMovement

Five AntisMovement

1st Five-Year-Plan(1953-57)

Hundred Flowers Movement

Great Leap Forward

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954 1956

19571955

politics

economyculture

ideology

genderfields/dimensions of analysis

Civil warAnti-Japanese

War

Varying interpretations (I)Varying interpretations

Perceptions of the year 1949, the founding year of the People’s Republic of China, varied among specific groups in specific historical periods:

1950s Liberation vs. totalitarianism

Perceptions in the 1950s: the “liberation approach” can be found within the socialist states (including China) and some authors in the West; mainstream Western authors describe the victory of the CCP in terms of “totalitarianism”.

1966-76 China as a model for unorthodox socialism

During the years from 1966 to 1976, China’s development is seen as a model for “unorthodox socialism” (see, for example, Willy Brandt’s détente or Entspannungspolitik in Europe). The students’ movement in the West also shows a very positive stance towards the developments in China.

Varying interpretations (II)Varying interpretations

Perceptions of the year 1949, the founding year of the People’s Republic of China, varied among specific groups in specific historical periods:

Late 1970s-1980s

“Empathy”

In the late 1970s and 1980s, the prevalent perception in the West can be described as “empathy”; the model of socialism is left behind, and in the academic world dealing with China, there is increasing acceptance of different political systems.

Present interpretation

Neo-liberalism, “globalization”

The 1990s sees a neo-liberal approach, which stresses the effects of globalization, and shifts the emphasis to 1978 as the “year of real change” in China; research focuses on economic performance.

Interpretations in the 1950s

Perceptions of the year 1949 in the PR China, the socialist states and the (left-wing) West (I)

1949 In the early perceptions of the year 1949 in the PR China, the socialist states and the (left-wing) West, a line is drawn between the old and the new, the backward and the progressive - the “delegitimation” of the old is accompanied by the legitimation and construction of the new. From a narrow perspective, 1949 marks a break with the more recent history of China (the war against Japan and the rule of the Guomindang); from a broader perspective, 1949 marks a break with the negative connotations associated with the “old China”.

The year 1949 is perceived as a watershed (at scientific/ political/ individual level), as a positive break-through: it stands for liberation, victory, the “new China” vs. the “old China”.

• “master narrative”: “liberation”

– liberation of farmers from the yoke of the feudal landowners

– liberation of women from the feudal chains of family

– liberation of oppressed China from imperialism

Interpretations in the 1950s

Perceptions of the year 1949 in the PR China, the socialist states and the (left-wing) West (II)

1950s:

liberation paradigm

The 1950s are seen as “the golden years” in the self-perception of China at that time and in the perception of others (socialist states, China, and Western “progressive” authors)

“master narrative”: “liberation paradigm”

• Liberation of the masses

• Creation of a “new” society - the “old” society (characterized by war, expulsion, famine, abuse of power, tyranny, epidemics, plagues, dirt and mess) has been overcome

Interpretations in the 1950s

Perceptions of the year 1949 in the PR China, the socialist states and the (left-wing) West (III)

1950s:

liberation paradigm

Underlying ideas: • The creative power of mankind to create its own history in accordance with natural law• Teleological belief in progression, vision of a “better” socialist society• China is regarded as part of the international socialist movement• Development of the PR China as a “success story” – with emphasis on the efforts of the Chinese people (as opposed to the support given by the USSR)

Focus on positive aspects in development compared with the negative aspects of the past • Unity• Stabilization of foreign/domestic political and economic stabilization • Reversion of the ownership situation/structure• Equality of women• Education for the under-privileged• Land reform (1950 to 1953)• Marriage law (1950)• Perception of the Korean War as “defending the newly established Chinese state”

Interpretations in the 1950s

Perception of the 1950s in the capitalist “free” world (I)

1950s:totalitarianism

paradigm

“master narrative”: “totalitarianism”• China as part of the communist movement

• Communism is seen as a totalitarian system which acts as a threat to freedom and democracy in the Western world

• Cold war/ anti-communist stance: The communist victory as a victory of a totalitarian regime in the tradition of the old Chinese empire.

• Comparisons are drawn between China and totalitarian regimes in the West (Hitler) or Stalin’s regime;

• The reforms of the 1950s are regarded as running contradictory to the people

Interpretations in the 1950s

Perception of the 1950s in the capitalist “free” world (II)

1950s:totalitarianism paradigm

Prevalence of negative terms• “Red China”

• “Red leaders”

• “Abolition of the family”

• “No freedom”

• Racist connotations (“yellow peril”)

• Communism is described as coercion, constraint and terror

• The land reform is regarded as a fight against the landowners and the destruction of the traditional order

• the Korean war is seen as an aggressive act against the US and the interests of the free world.

Interpretations in the 1950s

Main representatives

Quotations

“Liberation”

The European left:• Eva Siao

• Simone de Beauvoir

The socialist world

The People’s Republic of China

„Die Chinesen haben zu essen, satt und reichlich zu essen. Hunger gibt es nicht mehr, und sie können sich Kleidung kaufen. Das ist beides so viel. Mit diesen Dingen sind sie schon reich, und sie wissen, daß es noch besser werden wird und sind mit Begeisterung dabei.“ … „Hier entsteht eine vollkommen neue Welt, man baut ein neues, freies China.“ (Eva Siao 1990:178)

„In diesem Lande, das unablässig in Bewegung ist, leitet die Gegenwart ihren Sinn aus der Vergangenheit ab, die sie hinter sich läßt, aus der Zukunft, die sie verheißt.“ (de Beauvoir 1960:414)

„Das charakteristischste Merkmal der Entwicklung in der chinesischen Volksrepublik war ein gewaltiger politischer Aufschwung im chinesischen Volke, der den Wiederaufbau und die Weiterentwicklung der Wirtschaft zum Ziel hatte." (China 1957:208).

Interpretations in the 1950s

Main representatives

Quotations

1950s:

totalitarism

“Totalitarianism”

American and European mainstream• Lionel Max Chassin• A. Doak Barnett

“The cause of Mao’s triumph lies in the fact that appealing as he did to ancient and deeply rooted reflexes, he gave a faith, a creed, to the peasants of China. Totalitarian doctrines are always based upon simple slogans, easy to exploit. (…) Mao had only to follow a beaten track. His external theme was the eternal theme of xenophobic nationalism, of the struggle against foreign imperialists, who themselves but barely emerged from barbarism, had ‘enslaved’ the higher civilization that was China. As for internal themes, he cleverly appealed to the instincts of social justice and proprietorship which are so strong in the human heart. In proclaiming agrarian reform, in despoiling the landlords and lowering taxes, in giving landless farm hands plots to hold as their very own, Mao played the best of cards - to be cynically discarded once victory was won.” (Lionel Max Chassin, The Communist Conquest of China: A History of the Civil War 1945-1949, Harvard University Press: Cambridge Mass. 1965) (originally published in French 1952)

Interpretations 1966-76

Perception of China as an example of unorthodox socialism

1966-1976:

China as a model for unorthodox socialism

“master narrative”:• China’s own specific way of overcoming economic difficulties

• The Soviet model of the 1950s is regarded as only a preliminary essential

• The link between “Yan’an” and Mao’s approach is emphasized

• The Soviet model is regarded as “Westernization” in another form

Reasons:• Emergence of the student movements in the West

• Vietnam War

• The search for societal alternatives to the US and the Soviet model

Interpretations during Cultural Revolution

Main representatives

Quotations

1966-1976:China as model for an unorthodox socialism

Stuart R. Schram

Jan Myrdal

Peter Kuntze

“Mao’s conviction that the countryside, though it must assimilate modern knowledge, is not inferior to the city, is intimately linked to his belief that the Chinese need not regard themselves as inferior to the foreigners. Here lies the nub of his rebellion, not only against Soviet domination, but against the whole Europe centred logic of Marxism. For Marx, the only salvation for the backward and stagnant societies of Asia lay in what he called ‘Europeanization’. Similar premises have informed the thinking of the Russian Communists about the Orient, form Lenin to the present day. … Though fully aware of China’s present backwardness, Mao is resolved that the Chinese people shall overcome this condition by their own strength, and in their own way”. (Stuart R. Schram, Historical Perspective in: Stuart R. Schram, Authority, Participation and Cultural Change in China, Cambridge, and Cambridge University Press 1973, pp. 25-26.)

Interpretations during Cultural Revolution

Main representatives

Quotations

1966-1976:China as model for an unorthodox socialism

Stuart R. Schram

Jan Myrdal

Kuntze

„Zur Größe Mao Tsetungs gehört auch, daß er die notwendigen Aufgaben klar und einfach ausdrücken konnte. Als Mao Tsetung 1946 und danach die Theorie von den drei Welten entwickelte und betonte, daß die Dritte Welt die Hauptkraft im Kampf gegen Imperialismus, Kolonialismus und Hegemonismus sei, tat er das sowohl auf der Grundlage dessen, was Engels in bezug auf Marx „vollständige Sachkenntnis“ nannte, als auch in genauer Kenntnis der mehr als hundertjährigen marxistischen Tradition; und aus der eigenen Erfahrung im Kampf heraus.“ (Myrdal, China nach Mao Tsetung und Dritter Bericht aus einem chinesischen Dorf, 1978, p.112)

Present interpretations

Perception of the 1950s in the discourse of the 1990s (American, neoliberal)

1970s-1980s:

empathy

“master narrative”•Acceptance of different political and societal systems

•In the late 1970s and 1980s, the prevalent perception in the West can be described as “empathy”; the model of socialism is left behind, and in the academic world dealing with China, there is increasing acceptance of different political systems.

Interpretations in the 1970s-80s

Main representatives

Quotations

1970s-1980s:

empathy

Cambridge History

Cambridge History, vol. 14.:

“A ‘new democratic state’ was established that was not an orthodox dictatorship of the proletariat but, instead, a ‘people‘s democratic dictatorship’ in which the peasantry, petty bourgeoisie, and national bourgeousie joined the working class as ruling classes.” (ibid. 78)

“Despite resentment of particular features of CCP rule, the regime had obtained far-reaching popular support as a result of achievements in securing social order, launching economic development, improving living conditions, and restoring national pride. At the same time it had accomplished a basic social and institutional transformation so that by 1956 China had entered the socialist stage.”

(ibid. 142)

Interpretations in the 1970s-80s

Main representatives

Quotations

1970s-1980s:

empathy

Cambridge History

“Twenty years later, looking back on the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution, most people felt nostalgic for 1956 and regarded it as the best period in the history of the People’s Republic, calling it ‘the golden year’”. (Liu Binyan 1990:61)

Cambridge History, vol. 14.:

“After 1949, moreover, shared ideological commitment to Marxism and a broad consensus on ambitious industrialization and social transformation further contributed to elite cohesion.“ (Cambridge History:57)

“On balance, both the broader achievements of the initial period and the specific successes of Korea and collectivization left Mao‘s position at the end of 1957 as strong as ever despite the setback of the Hundreds Flowers.“ (ibid. 61)

Present interpretations

Perception of the 1950s in the discourse of the 1990s (American, neoliberal) (I)

Present inter-pretation:

neo-liberalism

“master narrative”• Deconstruction of the “golden years“ concept (including the re-interpretation of assumptions which had been dominant until then)• Continuation/resumption/enforcement of negative views already in existence in the 1950s (totalitarianism)• 1949 as an “artificial demarcation point”• Focus on continuing trends subsumed into the first years of communist rule from GMD rule/ imperial rule (instead: 1978 as the actual turning point with the “policy of reform and opening”):

– Was the year 1949 really a watershed?

– Were the 1950s a failure rather than a success?

• The “golden years” are often regarded as a myth.

Present interpretations

Perception of the 1950s in the discourse of the 1990s (American, neoliberal) (II)

Present inter-pretation:

neo-liberalism

The year 1949 is seen as a demarcation from the “revolutionary period”:

– Relationship between the CCP and the farmers: before 1949, the CCP is regarded as representing the interests of the farmers; after 1949, the farmers were “forced” to contribute to the finances of the cities (Cheng/Selden 1997).

– The CCP regarded themselves as representative of the working class, but this strata did not become agents in policy making (see Perry 1997: 246f).

– A new focus is placed on transferring features of CCP rule to GMD rule: “concepts, structures and policies in the areas of politics, economy and military have been part of political life since 1927” (Kirby 2000:211f, see also Cheek 1997:8). Very often, attention is drawn to an assumed direct continuity from the 1930s to the 1950s (based on concepts of the 1930s as a time of a “Vertagte Revolution” [a delayed revolution](Jürgen Domes) or an “abortive revolution” (Lloyd E. Eastman)

– Re-evaluation of GMD policy.

Present interpretations

Perception of the 1950s in the discourse of the 1990s (American, neoliberal) (III)

Present inter-pretation:

neo-liberalism

• 1978 instead of 1949 as year of (dramatic) change (see Chan 1994).

– The period before 1978 is now called “old regime” (Mao Yushi 2000:20) and not the period before 1949.

– The relationship between the period before 1978 and afterwards is seldom mentioned, one notable exception being Goldman/Nathan (2000:317) who emphasize the role of the CCP in fighting analphabetism.

Present interpretations

Main representatives

Quotations

Present inter-pretation:

neo-liberalism

US-American, European sinologists/political scientists

But also many academics from China working in the West (or having their training received in the West)

• David Shambaugh• Tony Saich• Mark Selden• Su Shaozu• Yu Guangyuan

“The century-long presence of these four phenomena are also healthy reminders that the field of Chinese studies has for too long accepted 1949 as an artificial demarcation in studying modern China‘s development. It seems far more fruitful to consider developments on both sides of the 1949 divide along a continuum of development rather than accepting a priori the assumption that a ‘New China’ characterized by the communist party-state dawned on October1, 1949.“ (Shambaugh 1997:126)

Su Shaozu and Yu Guangyuan, for example, underline the discontinuity. Based on criteria of political participation they seek to push back the “Golden Age” to the period of “New Democracy” that preceded the CCP’s 1949 victory. They view the effective abandonment of the moderate politics and the inclusive nature of the United Front that accompanied CCP rule in many of the areas it controlled as a great mistake (see Saich 1997:305).

Present interpretations

Main representatives

Quotations

Present inter-pretation:

neo-liberalism

US-American, European sinologists/political scientists

But also many academics from China working in the West (or having their training received in the West)

David Shambaugh

Tony Saich

Mark Selden

„In contrast to the conventional of the image of the mid-1950s as a time when basic urban problems were resolved in China, the strike wave indicates that we might better view the era as one in which fundamental social cleavages became evident.“ (Perry 1997:234).

In einigen Fällen erfolgt eine völlige Umwertung früherer Aussagen: etwa bei Selden, der in seinem Klassiker zur Yan´an-Periode (1971) die Erfolge der KPCh beim Zusammenschluß unterschiedlicher sozialer Schichten positiv als Demokratie-Potential gewertet hatte, während er in der revidierten Fassung von 1995 eben diese Politik der KPCh als einerseits eine Volks-Mobilisierung und andererseits als „repressive commandism“ charakterisierte (Selden 1995:241).

1949:„Year of Change“

politics

economyculture

ideology

genderfields/dimensions of analysis

1949 as starting point for…

1949:„Year of

Great Change“

Beijing UniversityDepartment of History

北京大学历史学系

Free University BerlinEast Asian Seminar

Sinology

Joint Internet Forum: http://www.hist.pku.edu.cn/cforum/

• Do you think the model of differing perceptions of 1949 can help us to understand the history of the PRC?

• What do you think are the reasons for the sometimes totally contradictory evaluations of the events taken place in 1949 and the 1950s?

• Which perception/interpretation seems to be most plausible in your opinion?