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SEEAPPENDIXIFORIMPORTANTDISCLOSURESANDANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSCo.RegNo:198700034E

MICA(P):090/11/2009

Property|11November2011

BUY HotelPropertiesLimited3Q11Results ModestgrowthAnalyst

OOIYiTung

[email protected]

(65)64335712

Price $2.03

arget $2.64

ST

Index

2,786.9

HistoricalChart

Performance 1m 3m 6m

Absolute(%) 4.1 1.5 13.6

Relative(%) 0.6 1.8 1.5

StockInformation

Tickercode HPL.SI

HPLSP

Marketcap(US$m) 795.5

52weekhigh(S$) 2.903

52weeklow(S$) 1.885

Sharesissued

(m)

505.8

6mavgd.vol(S$m) 0.2

Freefloat(%) 27.3

Majorshareholders(%)

PeterFu(29.2)

OngBengSeng(23.0)

WheelockProperties(20.0)

KeyIndicators

ROE(%) 4.4

NetgearingSep11(%) 72.6

RNAV(S$) 4.39

BVPSSep11(S$) 2.70

Interestcover(x) 4.7

Event

Hotel Properties (HPL) posted 3Q11 net profit of $16.5m, up 34% from

2Q10srestatednetprofitof$12.3m.Onasequentialbasis,revenuegrew

slightlyandnetprofitroseby8.5%.Earningswereattributedtothebetter

performanceofitshotelsinSingaporeandhigherincomerecognitionfrom

TomlinsonHeightsandTheInterlace.Netprofitfor9M11isinlinewithour

expectation,accountingfor78%ofourfullyearestimate.MaintainBUY.

OurView

Accordingto

preliminary

data

by

the

Singapore

Tourism

Board,

3Q11

tourist

arrivalsroseby 15%YoY to reach3.5mvisitors,a record for the Republic.

Consequently,RevParimprovedby15%from$191in3Q10to$221in3Q11.

Average hotel occupancy rate stood at 88% in 3Q11. However, the better

performancebyHPLshotelsinSingaporewasoffsetbyitsotherhotelsand

resorts in Maldives and Thailand. We are cautious on the groups hotel

earnings going forward, as the novelty of the catalysts spurring record

touristarrivalsinSingapore,namely,F1sonlynightraceandtheintegrated

resorts,appearstobewearingoff.TheEuropeandebtcrisisandaslowing

globaleconomyfurthershroudthetourismsectorinuncertainty.

HPLsearningsfromassociates,whereithasminoritystakesintwosizeable

projects

the

1,040

unit

The

Interlace

at

Alexandra

Road

and

the

1,715

unit

dLeedonatFarrerRoadimprovedfrom$6.7min3Q10to$9.3min3Q11.

Thiscame from higher profit recognition fromThe Interlace, which is66%

soldatanaveragepriceof$1,050psf.ProfitrecognitionfromdLeedonhas

yettostart,thoughtheprojectis38%soldatanaveragepriceof$1,560psf.

We estimate there remains about $766.3m in sales ($242.4m in pretax

earnings) to be progressively recognised until 2014, when the last project

dLeedon completes. There was no sale at Tomlinson Heights but HPLs

breakevencostof$1,700psfdoesprovidesomecomfort.AtdLeedon,180

units were sold in 3Q11 with the release of new units. The news that the

Farrer Road MRT Station along Circle Line would open in October could

havelifted

sales

too.

At

The

Interlace,

16

units

were

sold

in

the

quarter.

Action&Recommendation

We maintain our BUY call on HPL and target price of $2.64, pegged at a 40%

discounttoitsRNAVof$4.39/share.

YearEndDec31 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F

Sales(S$m) 443.2 442.1 507.4 585.1 829.3

Pretax(S$m) 52.0 159.1 81.8 123.1 197.5

Netprofit(S$m) 35.2 140.3 62.0 95.1 153.7

EPS(Scts) 7.0 27.8 12.3 18.8 30.4

EPSgrowth(%) 7.1 297.7 55.8 53.4 61.7

PER(x)

29.1

7.3

16.5

10.8

6.7

EV/EBITDA(x) 16.5 9.8 15.7 14.4 10.1

Yield(%) 1.0 2.5 1.0 1.0 1.0


2/7

HotelPropertiesLimited 11November2011

2

Figure1:HPLssaleofresidentialunits

Project 2007 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

TomlinsonHeights 12 8 3 6 0

TheInterlace 243 14 27 229 45 45 50 22 16

dLeedon

231

239

0

180

Total 243 14 27 229 57 284 292 28 196

Source:Companydata,URA

Figure2:HPLslandbank

Project District

Stake

(%)

GFA

(sqft) Tenure Units Sold Unsold

Cost

($psf)

ASP

($psf)

TomlinsonHeights 10 100 215,286 Freehold 70 29 41 1,700 3,200

TheInterlace 4 25 1,756,507 99year 1,040 691 349 730 1,050

dLeedon 10 22.5 2,347,766 99year 1,715 441 1,274 1,295 1,600

Source:Companydata,KimEngestimates

Figure3:HPLsRNAVbreakdown

Property Location Stake

Rooms/

NLA

(sqft)

Valueperkey/

Capitalvalue

($)/($psf)

Marketvalue

($m)

HotelsConcordeHotel Singapore 100% 407 698,063 284.1

HiltonSingapore Singapore 100% 422 930,750 392.8

FourSeasons Singapore 100% 254 1,047,094 266.0

Total 1,083 942.8

InvestmentpropertiesForum(officeandretail) Singapore 100% 180,814 2,200 397.8

MingArcade(retail) Singapore 100% 19,095 1,200 22.9

ConcordeShoppingMall(retail) Singapore 100% 83,518 2,000 167.0

HPLHouse(officeandretail) Singapore 85% 42,938 800 29.2

Total 326,364 616.9

RevaluationofSingaporehotels&investmentproperties 1,559.8

Lessbookcost 1,111.0

Surplus 448.8

NPVofdevelopmentprofits 427.7

Bookvalueofequity 1,343.1

RNAV 2,219.6

No.ofshares 505.2

RNAVpershare($) 4.39

Premium/(Discount) (40%)

Targetprice($) 2.64



3/7


3

ProfitandlossYEDec(S$m) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F

Sales 443.2 442.1 507.4 585.1 829.3

Costofgoodssold 311.4 316.9 350.1 409.6 580.5

GrossProfit 131.8 125.2 157.3 175.5 248.8

Operatingexpenses 48.4 63.6 73.8 84.7 118.8

OperatingProfit

83.4

61.6

83.5 90.9 130.0

Netinterest 29.2 26.7 26.9 27.1 25.5

Interestincome 1.7 3.8 1.7 1.5 1.9

Interestexpense 30.9 30.5 28.6 28.6 27.4

Netinvestmentincome/(loss) 6.3 103.2 0.0 0.0 0.0

NetJVandassociates 8.4 21.0 25.2 59.3 93.1

Netexceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Pretaxincome 52.0 159.1 81.8 123.1 197.5

Incometaxes 14.8 12.2 14.7 22.2 35.6

MinorityInterest 2.0 6.6 5.1 5.9 8.3

Netprofit 35.2 140.3 62.0 95.1 153.7

EBITDA 139.7 213.2 133. 5 140.9 180. 0

EPSbasic(Scts) 7.0 27.8 12.3 18.8 30.4

EPSfullydiluted(Scts) 7.0 27.7 12.2 18.8 30.3


BalancesheetYEDec(S$m) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F

Totalassets 2,778.6 2,707.5 2,762.4 2,798.0 2,792.7

Currentassets 688.7 569.4 553.4 539.9 462.6

Cashandbankbalances 50.6 86.0 75.1 93.0 107.5

Inventories 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0

Accountsreceivable 258.3 130.5 146.5 162.1 210.9

Developmentproperties 372.4 345.0 323.9 277.0 136.2

Otherassets 2,089.8 2,138.1 2,209.0 2,258.0 2,330.0

Investment properties 616.6 633.6 633.6 633.6 633.6

Property,Plant&Eqt 1,035.5 990.9 970.9 950.9 930.9

Others 437.8 513.6 604.6 673.6 765.6

Totalliabilities 1,476.5 1,282.7 1,285.8 1,252.1 1,103.4

Currentliabilities 287.0 556.9 567.2 558.5 509.8

Accounts

payable

99.4

95.0

106.5 122.9 174.1

Shorttermdebts 177.7 450.8 450.8 425.8 325.8

Others 9.9 11.1 9.8 9.8 9.8

Longtermliabilities 1,189.5 725.8 718.6 693.6 593.6

Longtermdebts 1,145.1 693.9 693.9 668.9 568.9

Others 44.4 31.9 24.7 24.7 24.7

Shareholder'sequity 1,302.0 1,424.8 1,476.7 1,546.4 1,690.0

Paidincapital 681.6 683.9 683.9 683.9 683.9

Reserve 539.3 659.2 711.1 780.8 924.3

Minorityinterest 81.2 81.7 81.7 81.7 81.7


CashflowYEDec(S$m) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F

Operatingcashflow 167.2 262.3 157.2 221.4 374.2

Netprofit 60.5 138.1 62.0 95.1 153.7

Depreciation&amortisation 50.4 48.7 50.0 50.0 50.0

Changeinworkingcapital 30.1 151.2 16.6 47.7 143.2

Others

26.3

75.8

28.6 28.6 27.4

Investment cashflow 88.1 3.6 100.0 100.0 100.0

Netcapex 20.1 33.3 30.0 30.0 30.0

Associates&JV 72.0 51.9 70.0 70.0 70.0

Changeinotherassets 4.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Cashflowafterinvt. 79.1 265.8 57.2 121.4 274.2

Financingcashflow 61.6 211.2 53.9 88.8 237.5

Changeinsharecapital 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Netchangeindebt 13.0 163.2 0.0 50.0 200.0

Others 43.5 37.9 28.6 28.6 27.4

Dividendspaid 5.0 10.1 25.3 10.1 10.1

Netcashflow 17.6 54.6 3.2 32.6 36.7

Freecashflow 147.1 229.0 127.2 191.4 344.2


KeyratiosYEDec 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F

Growth(%YoY)

Sales 27.6 0.2 14.8 15.3 41.7

OP 27.9 26.1 35.6 8.9 43.0

EBITDA 2.6 52.6 37.4 5.5 27.8

NP 7.2 298.2 55.8 53.4 61.7

EPS 7.1 297.7 55.8 53.4 61.7

Profitability(%)

Grossmargin 29.7 28.3 31.0 30.0 30.0

Operatingmargin 18.8 13.9 16.5 15.5 15.7

EBITDAmargin 31.5 48.2 26.3 24.1 21.7

Netprofitmargin 8.0 31.7 12.2 16.2 18.5

ROA 1.3 5.2 2.2 3.4 5.5

ROE 2.9 10.4 4.4 6.5 9.6

StabilityGrossdebt/equity(%) 108.3 85.2 82.1 74.7 55.6

Netdebt/equity(%) 104.2 78.8 76.7 68.4 48.9

Int.coverage(X) 4.5 7.0 4.7 4.9 6.6

Int.&STdebtcoverage(X) 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.5

Cashflowint.coverage(X) 5.4 8.6 5.5 7.7 13.7

Cashflowint.&STdebt(X) 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.5 1.1

Currentratio(X) 2.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9

Quickratio(X) 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6

Netdebt(S$m) 1,272.2 1,058.7 1,069.7 1,001.8 787.2

Persharedata(Scts)

EPSbasic 7.0 27.8 12.3 18.8 30.4

EPSfullydiluted 7.0 27.8 12.3 18.8 30.4

CFPS 33.1 51.9 31.1 43.8 74.1

BVPS 258.1 282.0 292.3 306.1 334.5

SPS 87.8 87.5 100.4 115.8 164.2

EBITDA/share 27.7 42.2 26.4 27.9 35.6

DPS 2.0 5.0 2.0 2.0 2.0



4/7

ANALYSTSCOVERAGE/RESEARCHOFFICES

4

SINGAPOREStephanieWONGHeadofResearchRegionalHeadofInstitutionalResearch+6564321451swong@kimeng.com

Strategy

Small&MidCaps

GregoryYAP

[email protected]

Conglomerates

Technology&Manufacturing

Transport&

Telcos

RohanSUPPIAH

[email protected]

Airlines

Marine&Offshore

WilsonLIEW

[email protected]

Hotel&Resort

Property&Construction

AnniKUM

[email protected]

Conglomerates

REITs

JamesKOH

[email protected]

Finance&Banking

Logistics

Resources

EricONG

[email protected]

Marine&

Offshore

Energy

OOIYiTung

[email protected]


YEAKCheeKeong,CFA

[email protected]

Retail&Consumer

Engineering

Infrastructure

HONGKONG/CHINAEdwardFUNGHeadofResearch+85222680632edwardfung@kimeng.com.hk

Power

Construction

IvanCHEUNG

[email protected]

Property

Industrial

IvanLI

[email protected]

Banking&Finance

JacquelineKO

[email protected]

ConsumerStaples

AndyPOON

[email protected]

Telecom&relatedservices

SamanthaKWONG

[email protected]

ConsumerDiscretionaries

AlexYEUNG

[email protected]

Industrial

INDIAJigarSHAHHeadofResearch+912266232601 [email protected]

Oil&Gas

Automobile

Cement

AnubhavGUPTA

+912266232605 [email protected]

Metal&Mining

Capitalgoods

Property

HaripreetBATRA


Software

Media

GaneshRAM


Telecom

Contractor

INDONESIAKatarinaSETIAWANHeadofResearch+622125571125ksetiawan@kimeng.co.id

Consumer

Infra

Shipping

Strategy

Telcos

Others

RicardoSILAEN

+62212557

1126

[email protected]

Auto

Energy

HeavyEquipment

Property

Resources

RahmiMARINA

[email protected]

Banking

LuckyARIESANDI,CFA

[email protected]

Cement

Construction

Pharmaceutical

Retail

AdiN.WICAKSONO

[email protected]

Generalist

ArwaniPRANADJAYA

[email protected]

Technicalanalyst

VIETNAMMichaelKokalari,[email protected]

Strategy

NguyenThiNganTuyen

[email protected]

Conglomerates

ConfectionaryandBeverage

OilandGas

NgoBichVan

[email protected]

Banking

Insurance

NguyenQuangDuy

[email protected]

Industrial

Property

TrinhThi

Ngoc

Diep

[email protected]


Power

DangThiKimThoa

[email protected]

Consumer

Services

HoangNamPhu

[email protected]

Technology&Telecom

Transport

Resources

TruongQuangBinh

[email protected]

Pharmaceutical

Plantation&Fishery

THAILAND

Stephen

LOWY

Headof

Research

[email protected]

WatcharaSATITPORNUMNUAY

[email protected]

Retail

Bank

PuttikulACKARACHALANONTH

Utilities

PHILIPPINESLuzLORENZOHeadofResearch+6328498836luz_lorenzo@atr.com.ph

Strategy

LauraDYLIACCO

[email protected]

Utilities

Conglomerates

Telcos

LovellSARREAL

+632

849

8841

[email protected]

Consumer

Media

Cement

KennethNERECINA


Conglomerates

Property

Ports/Logistics

KatherineTAN


Banks

Construction

ECONOMICSLuzLORENZOEconomist

[email protected]

Philippines

Indonesia

REGIONALONGSengYeow

[email protected]

RegionalProducts&Planning

Recommendationdefinitions

Ourrecommendationisbasedonthe

followingexpectedprice

performancewithin12months:

+15%andabove:BUY

15%to+15%:HOLD

15%orworse:SELL


5/7


5

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Additionalinformationonmentionedsecuritiesisavailableonrequest.

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securitiesor issuers; and nopart ofthe research analyst's compensation was, is, or willbe, directly or indirectly, related to the

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VietnamKimEngVietnamSecuritiesJoint

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1stFloor,255TranHungDaoSt.

District1

HoChiMinhCity,Vietnam

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NguyenThiNganTuyen(research)

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SouthAsiaSalesTradingConnieTAN

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