18 scott gray
DESCRIPTION
LPG worldTRANSCRIPT
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US Waterborne LPGExports - And The Impact
on the Global LPG Market
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2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Introduction to Waterborne Energy
* Founded in 1983* Houston based
* Global offices & Contributors
* LPG & LNG shipping-related publications
* Clients in 44 countries
2
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Our Core
We track the global movements of the bluewater LPGfleet
3
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Isabella Kosan 8,000cbm
4
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Bastogne 35,223cbm
5
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Jenny N 60,000cbm
6
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Bu Sidra 82,000cbm
7
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BW Kyoto 84,000cbm
8
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
9
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
10
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3,270,800 3,511,600455,000 517,000
3,114,855 3,486,222
6,213,250 6,400,600
3,309,5875,059,891
34,589,285
34,464,323
5,894,500
5,333,300654,224
546,9502,157,0001,804,000
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
50,000,000
55,000,000
60,000,000
65,000,000
2011 2012
MetricTons
Annual Global LPG Supply By Regional Source
Australia
Caribbean
Mediterranean
Middle East
North America
North Sea
South America
Souheast Asia
West Africa
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5%
1%
5%
10%
6%
58%
10%
1%
4%6%
1%
6%
10%8%
56%
9%
1%3%
6%
0%
3%
13%12%
53%
8%
1%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
West Africa Souheast Asia South America North Sea North America Middle East Mediterranean Caribbean Australia
Global Annual LPG Supplies By Region
2011
2012
2013 YTD
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
13
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Total Monthly Middle East LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Monthly A ve rage MidEast
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025,00050,00075,000
100,000125,000150,000175,000200,000225,000250,000275,000300,000325,000350,000375,000400,000425,000450,000475,000500,000
525,000550,000575,000600,000625,000650,000675,000700,000725,000750,000775,000800,000825,000850,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Total Monthly US LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Monthly Average US
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
Jan-11 M M
J S N
Jan-12 M M
J S N
Jan-13 M
MetricTons
Total Monthly Latin American LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Average Monthly Latin America
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Total Monthly Algerian LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Monthly A ve rage Alger ia
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Total Monthly West African LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Monthly Ave rage We st A fr ic a
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0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Total Monthly North Sea LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Monthly A ve rage North Se a
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Total Monthly Southeast Asian LPG Lifting Volumes
Propane Butane Monthly Ave rage SE A sia
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
Jan-1
1
Fe
b-1
1
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-1
1
Jun-1
1
Jul-11
Aug-1
1
Sep-1
1
Oct-11
Nov-1
1
Dec-1
1
Jan-1
2
Fe
b-1
2
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-1
2
Jun-1
2
Jul-12
Aug-1
2
Sep-1
2
Oct-12
Nov-1
2
Dec-1
2
Jan-1
3
Fe
b-1
3
Mar-13
Apr-13
MetricTons
Regional Overview
Southeast Asia
North Sea
WAF
Algeria
Latin America
USA
Middle East
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2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
22
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0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
MetricTons
Global Annual LPG Deliveries By Region
2011
2012
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
24
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
2013
MetricTons
Annual Overwater US LPG Imports
Isobutane
Butane
Propane
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
2013
MetricTons
Annual Overwater US LPG Exports
Isobutane
Butane
Propane
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
MetricTons
Annual Overwater US LPG Exports
US LPG Imports
US LPG Exports
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-6,000,000
-4,000,000
-2,000,000
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 YTD
2013
MetricTons
"Net" Waterborne US LPG Imports (Exports) By Product
Isobutane
Butane
Propane
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
30
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0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
2011 2012
MetricTons
Annual US LPG Export Volumes
Isobutane
Butane
Propane
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
32
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143,784
0
83,643
48,165
00
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2011 Gulf Coast 2011 East Coast 2011 West Coast
MetricTons
2011 Annual US LPG Exports By Coast
IsoButaneButane
Propane
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4,347,762
143,216
231,413
23,699
125,465
157,718
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2012 Gulf Coast 2012 East Coast 2012 West Coast
MetricTons
2012 Annual US LPG Exports By CoastIsoButaneButanePropane
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
35
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0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
2011 Total 2012 Total
MetricTons
Annual US LPG Exports By Regional Destination
West Africa
Undetermined
South America
Northwest
EuropeMexico
Mediterranean
Far East
Central America
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Caribbean
CentralAmerica
FarEast
Mediterranean
Mexico
NorthwestEurope
SouthAmerica
Undetermined
WestAfrica
Metric
Tons
2011 Annual US LPG Exports By Regional Destination
2011 IsoButane
2011 Butane
2011 Propane
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
Caribbean
CentralAmerica
FarEast
Mediterranean
Mexico
NorthwestEurope
SouthAmerica
Undetermined
WestAfrica
MetricTons
2012 Annual US LPG Exports by Regional Destination
2012 IsoButane2012 Butane2012 Propane
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
39
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0
20 0
40 0
60 0
80 0
1,000
1,200
1,400
Jan10 F M A M
J J A S O N D
Jan11 F M A M
J J A S O N D
Jan12 F M A M
J J A S O N D
Jan13 F M
USDollarsPerMetric
Ton
Propane Price Comparison
MB (Plus Term Fees) vs North Sea/Algeria CP/Saudi CPAvg FOB MB + Term FeeSaudi CPAlgeria CPAvg FOB N.Sea
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0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan10 M M
J S N
Jan11 M M
J S N
Jan12 M M
J S N
Jan13 M
USDollarsPerMetricTon
Butane Price Comparison
MB (Plus Term Fees) vs N.Sea/Algeria CP/Saudi CPAvg FOB MB + Term Fee
Saudi CP
Algeria CP
FOB North Sea
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
42
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
37622 37803 37987 38169 38353 38534 38718 38899 39083 39264 39448 39630 39814 39995 40179 40360 40544 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12
USDollarsPerMetric
Ton
US Gulf Coast Commercial LPG Terminalling Fees
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0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
11.000
12.000
13.000
14.000
15.000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
Jan2003
Jul
Jan2004
Jul
Jan2005
Jul
Jan2006
Jul
Jan2007
Jul
Jan2008
Jul
Jan2009
Jul
Jan2010
Jul
Jan2011
Jul
Jan2012
Jul
CentsPerG
allon
Barrels
Total LPG Exports Vs Terminalling Fees
Total LPG Exports - BblsUSGC Terminalling Fee - Cts/Gal
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
45
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0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
MetricTons
Monthly US Waterborne LPG ExportsButanePropane
Enterprise Expansion (Jan '13)
Targa Expansion (Oct '13)
(Assumed & Incremental) MarkWest Increases
Targa Expansion (Assumed Q4 '14)
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Topics to be Covered
* Global Supplies* Regional Supplies
* Global Delivery Volumes
* US Import / Export History
* US Export Supplies
* US Export Supplies by Coast
* US Exports by Regional Destination
* Propane & Butane Pricing
* US Terminalling Fees
* US Export Expectations* US LPG Marine Terminal Projects
47
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Terminal Projects
Announced Terminal Projects* Coastal Caverns (Vitol) Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX* Williams Beaumont/Port Arthur, TX
* Sunoco (ETP) Nederland, TX
* Phillips 66 Freeport, TX
* Oxy Corpus Christi, TX
Potential Terminal Projects* Trammo - Newington, NH
* Trammo - Tampa, FL
* BG Lake Charles, LA* Valero Corpus Christi, TX
* Martin Gas Corpus Christi, TX
* Trafigura Corpus Christi, TX
* TransMontaigne Brownsville, TX
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Other Factors To Consider
* Petrochemical Expansions (US & International)* PDH Plants (US & China)
* Global Supply Variations (Iran, UAE, SE Asia)
* Global Demand Variations (N.Sea, Brazil, India, China)
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2013, IHS Inc. No portion of this presentation may be reproduced, reused, or otherwise distributed in any form without prior written consent.
Conclusions
* US LPG Export Volumes Are Increasing
* Increased Exports Jeopardizes Terminalling Fees
* New projects will move more butane
* East Coast Terminal Projects Budding
* West Coast (Canada) Terminal Projects Budding
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For more information about this presentation or
IHS in general, please contact
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