Climate Change in Bangladesh: Challenges and Responses

Niaz Ahmed Khan Ph.D. (Wales), Post Doc. (Oxford)

Professor and (former) Chair, Department of Development Studies, University of Dhaka;

(former) Country Representative-Bangladesh, IUCN -International Union for Conservation of Nature;

(former) Senior Program Coordinator-CHT, UNDP-Bangladesh.

Outline of the Discussion: Three Questions

• Climate Change: What is actually happening in the Field and How serious is the matter?– Part 1: The Bangladesh perspective: major

manifestations, symptoms, and challenges

• What are we doing about it? – Part 2: The Bangladesh response:

• (i) At the level of policies and national instruments• (ii) At field programme level

• How can we do things better? – Part 3: Some critical thoughts and clues on improvement

The Basics: Clarifying the Concepts

Climate Change Any change in climate over time whether due to natural variability or as a result of human interventions (IPCC)

Adaptive capacityThe ability of a system [human or natural] to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences

ResilienceThe ability of a system [human or natural] to resist, absorb and recover from the effects of hazards in a timely and efficient manner, preserving or restoring its essential basic structures, functions and identity

• Physical resources: Shelter and infrastructure will be damaged or destroyed by an increased frequency of flooding, storms and climate-related disasters.

• Human resources: Malnutrition and the incidents of infectious diseases are predicted to rise with changing weather patterns.

• Social resources: Reduced livelihood security and prolonged or more frequent droughts and floods will lead to the displacement of communities

• Natural resources: Ecosystems are directly threatened by climate change. Change to the natural environment undermines the poor who depend on local ecosystems for a variety of goods and services, and rely on the productivity of their environment to support agriculture. Changes in local ecosystems may require changes to agricultural systems and practices.

• Financial resources: The repeated failure of crops or loss of infrastructure and homes leads to increased household costs, decline in income, slower economic development and lower livelihood security.

Climate Change impacts everywhere!

Part 1The Bangladesh Perspective: Major

Manifestations and Challenges of CC and related Disasters

Bangladesh- ‘The Innocent Victim’

• Bangladesh emits only less than 1/5th of 1 % of world total, but the most vulnerable to tropical cyclones, 6th most vulnerable to flood in the world

• During 1984 to 2007, the physical damage from 6 floods worth around US$ 15.178 billion including thousands of deaths

• By 2050, rice production could decline by 8% and wheat by 32% (1990)

“if global warming cannot be limited within a 1.5 degrees Celsius increase, vulnerable countries like Bangladesh may be submerged partially displacing millions of people” (RK Pachauri, former Chair of IPCC)

• The rise of average temperatures in Bangladesh is estimated to have increased by 0.1250C/year from 1970 to 2001; this rate is comparable to the average rise in the temperature of the earth.

• Rates of precipitation have risen in the south-west, ranging from 9.45 to 20.4 mm per year.

• Sea level rose 4 mm per year from 1977 to 1998, 3 times more than the mean global rate of 1.0-1.5 mm per year over the past 100 years.

(Confirmed) Observed Changes in Bangladesh• Climate change is likely to bring

particularly rapid temperature increases in Bangladesh- faster than the average global rate of warming

• Extreme weather events such as heat waves and high rainfall are likely to become more frequent.

• Tropical cyclone intensity is expected to rise by 10-20%

• It is certain that sea level will rise. The lowest anticipated sea level is 40 cm by the end of the century

Exposure to Cyclones

Cyclone Sidr struck Bangladesh 15th November 2007. The South Western part of the country was hit by winds of up to 240kph in what has been described as the worst cyclone to hit Bangladesh in years. Estimates of the death toll stood at over 3500.

Cyclone Aila hit BangladeshOn 27 May 2009. 330 people killed, and at least 8,208 more went missing, while about 1 million people rendered homeless.

SLR and Salinity

Intrusion

Sea level has raised and roads went under water at Koyra, Khulna

Once a habitation (locality) - now submerged by sea water at Koyra, Khulna

Productive agriculture land has been affected by saline water intrusion, and becoming barren

Environmentally-destructive shrimp culture has become the key means of livelihood in the salinity affected land

Vulnerability to Flooding

Flood frequency and magnitude have drastically increased

Types and Sectoral Vulnerabilities (Source: NAPA)

Physical Vulnerability Context  

Extreme Tempera

ture

Sea Level Rise Drought Flood Cyclone and

Storm Surges

Erosion Sectoral Vulnerability Context

River Flood

FlashFlood

Coastal Inundation

Salinity Intrusion

+++ ++ +++ +++ +++ ++ +++ - Crop Agriculture

++ + + ++ ++ + + - Fisheries

++ ++ +++ + + + +++ - Livestock

+ ++  - - ++ + + +++ Infrastructure

++ +++ ++ - ++ + ++ - Industries

+++ +++ +++ + ++ + + - Biodiversity

+++ + +++ ++ ++ - ++ - Health

- - - - + + +++ +++ Human Settlement

++ + - + + - + - Energy

Food Security and Climate Change • Excessive rainfall may cause flooding and water logging conditions that

also lead to crop loss. It was found that for 1mm increase in rainfall at vegetative, reproductive and ripening stages decreased the Aman rice production by 0.036, 0.230 and 0.292 ton respectively (Ali, 2005).

• Due to salinity increase the loss of rice production in a village of Satkhira district was investigated and it was found that rice production in 2003 was 1,151 metric tons less than the year 1985,corresponding to a loss of 69 percent. Out of the total decreased production, 77 percent was found due to conversion of rice field into shrimp pond and 23 percent was because of yield loss (Ali, 2005).

• According to the estimate by Department of Agricultural Extension of Bangladesh (2008), Cyclone Sidr incurred a loss in rice equivalent of 1.23 million tons (out of which 535,707 tons in the four severely affected districts, 555,997 tons in badly affected 9 districts and 203,600 tons in moderately affected 17 districts in Bangladesh).

• Basak (2009) estimates that if temperature would rise to 1.90 C by 2050, the total Boro rice yield would reduce to a considerable amount, which corresponds to more than US $ 100 million.

• Using DSSAT model JK Basak (2011) estimates that Bangladesh would experience 1.5%, 2.5%, 4.4% and 5.4% rice yield reduction in the year 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 respectively.

STATUS OF CLIMATE MIGRANTS IN BANGLADESH

Climate Change has resulted in increasing number of displacement over the years.

In the perspective of Bangladesh, there are approximately 31 million people likely to migrate permanently from the southern part of Bangladesh within 21st century (Mollah et al., 2011).

Due to cyclone SIDR, approximately 106,000 people were displaced from water logging area to nearby safer, dry places and other distant districts, and in some cases, even to India (Kushol et. al. 2009).

Unnayan Onneshan reveals that out of the total migration, on an average 2% (3 million) migrate due to cyclone, 25% (39 million) for flood, 0.1% (50,000) for river bank erosion and 3% (5 million) due to drought over the years.

Environmental Displacement Estimation: A Bleak Future?

A Unnayan Onneshan (2012) study estimates that• Due to flood 5.25 million, 11.02 million, 23.16

million people may be displaced by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

• If radical actions are not taken 1.58 million, 6.46 million and 26.39 million may be displaced due to cyclone by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

• Due to riverbank erosion, 11.62 million, 26.15 million and 40.67 million may be displaced by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

• Similarly, 3.92 million, 4.64 million and 5.5 million may be displaced due to drought by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively.

Flood victims are looking for a safe place and refuge

Cyclone Aila-affected people are leaving their habitats

Part 2 (A) What are we doing about it?

The Interventions and Responses: At the level of Policies and National

Instruments

Some Milestones in Policy and National Level Responses

• Bangladesh’s main focus is on Adaptation • Formulation of Major Policy Documents:

– Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan (BCCSAP) in 2009– National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) in 2005 updated in

2009– Climate plus development thinking in Perspective Plan Titled ‘Vision

2020’– Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan 2005– National Food Policy (NFP) 2006– National Food Policy Plan of Action (2008-2015)– Country Investment Plan (2011)– The Bangladesh Country Road Map (2011), etc.– Promoting and internalizing adaptation (across all sectors) actions,

namely: disaster preparedness, flood and drainage congestion, development of salinity/drought tolerant crop varieties etc.

Some Milestones in Policy and National Level Responses (Continued)

• Institutions and Instruments • Climate Change Trust Fund (CCTF) (2009), Allocation app

US$ 300m; Approved some 70 projects. An amount of more than US$ 100 million has been allocated

– Setting up the Climate Change Unit/MOEF– Climate Change Resilience Fund

Fuelled by Development Partners; already allocated US$ 125m (UK,Sweden,EU,Denmark); another US$200m under consideration

• Addressing Climate Diplomacy– ‘Active player’ in international negotiations, with

strong ‘political commitment’ Proactive engagement with international conventions

Part 2 (B) What are we doing about it?

The Interventions and Responses:At the Field Programme/Community Level

The Policy Response & its focus on Community:BCCSAP 2009: The Basis of Most Programmatic Actions

SIX THEMATIC AREAS Food security, social protection and health Comprehensive disaster management Infrastructure Research & knowledge management Mitigation & low carbon development Capacity building & institutional strengthening

- 44 thematic programmes and 133 major activities - Implementation of several projects initiated- Establishment of climate change focal point at different ministries

Selected Examples of Community Based/Focussed Development Interventions (often linked to CCA/DRR) in Bangladesh

• Some 2025 cyclone shelters (of which 224 have been constructed by Caritas in Sandwip, Monpura and Kolapara). The cyclone shelters played a life-saving role (death toll reduced to 3500 during the super cyclone Sidr in Nov 2007 from almost 150000 in 1991). [add of photograph of a cyclone shelter]

• The Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP): (i) a multi-hazard approach to disasters; (ii) generating a ‘paradigm shift’ in disaster management, away from relief and rehabilitation and towards a more holistic approach to reducing risks and vulnerabilities; (iii) institutionalising the adoption of DRR approaches, not only in its host ministry, but more broadly across mainstream sector ministries.

• Community Based Adaptation (CBA) workshops, projects and awareness raising initiatives (CARE RVCC, BCAS CBA WS, IUCN NCAP/CDSP III etc.)

• Views from the field ….

A community initiative, facilitated by NGO, to protect mangroves through natural regeneration (Shyamnagar, Satkhira)

A collective approach of the local government and community and NGO for mangrove regeneration and protection through comanagement (modeled on ‘social forestry agreements’;) (Gabura Union, Shyamnagar, Satkhira)

Sharing traditionalfarming methods ofbaira or floating gardens, using hydroponics technology, from southern Bangladesh to northern regions has allowed locals to produce a new source of food during the monsoon season and waterlogged conditions.

Community-focussed R&D: vulnerability resource

mapping and the use of traditional knowledge,

community identify locally appropriate strategies to

adapt to the changing climatic conditions

Working for better community based disaster alerts

Identifying adaptation

indicators and studies on impact of climate change on

agriculture and fisheries

Reducing climate change vulnerability: Piloting salt-tolerant

varieties

Redesigning houses with simple modifications improves disaster resilience, increasing protection against cyclones in vulnerable coastal regions. Trained carpenters and masons replicate the structures using locally available and affordable materials.

Combining naval architecture expertise with local boat building techniques, the hulls of fishing boats are strengthened against rough weather and increasing frequency of storms. The reinforced boats have enhanced stability and safety for the fishermen, improving fish catches and income generation.

Conservation awareness raising

sessions with school children

School students from Noakhali, a coastal region, use theatrical performances to raise awareness of strategies to adapt to local impacts of climate change. The mascot Rana Bhai, a shona bang or Indian bullfrog, is an ambassador for climate change and helps the children deliver their message.

Weaving and repairing fishing gears (Nolerchar, Noakhali )

Right: A fisher’s household in a raised land(off Banglabazar, Noakhali) Left: The Janata bazaarKilla (Noakhali)

Co-Management Projects

Part 3How can we do things better?

Way ForwardSome critical thoughts and clues on

improvement

Some Clues on Improvement

• Consolidating and scaling up of current best-practices

• Many tools/conventions/policies, but little coordination: needs to synergize and integrate

• A greater role and utilization of relevant skills (notably: human security, community development, and disaster management) of the armed forces

• Transfer of Technology or gradual shifts to Low Carbon Development economy

• Streamlining and capacity enhancement of the relevant institutions

Some Clues on Improvement (Continued)

• Greater efforts towards broad based public engagement and consultation in CC/DRR policy dialogues, national/international negotiations, and programme development and implementation

• Promote closer interaction and networking between DRR and Adaptation teams, and support generation of integrated knowledge and mutual sharing experience and lessons

• Rather than an isolated treatment, CC and DRR considerations need to be mainstreamed into the development planning and project formulation

• Consider establishing a ‘clearing house’ for climate change/DRR related information and dissemination thereof

• More transparency and public scrutiny of (the rapidly growing) DRR/CC expenditure and investments

Thank You for not falling asleep!