15.04.10. introduction to flood damage assessment model for power plants
TRANSCRIPT
INTRODUCTION TO FLOOD DAMAGE ASSESSMENT MODEL FOR POWER PLANTS
2015.04.10Nguyen Thanh Tuu
Contents
• Introduction•Research questions•Key terms •Literature review•Expected methodology•Required data•Expected results
Introduction
• Locations of power station in the UK
Introduction
• According to DEFRA (2011), the important impacts of
climate change on Energy sectors are:
Flood of infrastructure and power stations
Cooling demand
Heat related damage disruption
Water abstraction
Introduction
• Locations of thermal power station in South Korea
Research questions
• Why power industry is vulnerable to climate change?
Most of power plants are located in the coastal areas.
They can be affected by flooding.
Dangjin Power PlantPoryong Power Plant
Key terms
• Consequence(s): the effect, result, or outcome of inundation as reflected in the potential loss of life, economic losses, and adverse environmental impacts.
• Economic Risk: is the result of integrating the damage-probability function to yield the mean or expected annual damage (EAD).
• Eceedance Probability: the probability that a specific event will occur in any given year. For example, the 0.01 exceedance probability event has one chance in 100, or 1% chance of occuring in any given year.
• Expected Annual Damage (EAD): the integral of the damage-probability function.
HEC (2015). Key USACE Flood Risk Management Terms
Literature review
• “A mathematical model for flood loss estimation” implemented in Japan (2002)
Literature review
Concept integration of flood inundation simulation and loss estimation model
Literature review
Input spatial parameters required for establishing loss estimation model
Damage category Input data
Urban damage Non-Residential building
Total floor area
Type of structures
Number of building per type
Property, stock and outside property values of building per worker per type
Total workers of building per type
Infrastructure damage
System Type of lifeline systems
Number of components in each type of lifeline system
Replacement cost
Service interruption Loss per day for disruption of any component
Literature review
• “Inundation scenarios for flood damage evaluation in polder areas ” implemented in the Netherlands (2009)
Damage scanner model
Theory
Where i = land-use category, r = location in the flooded area, m = number of land-use categories, n = number of locations in the flooded area, αi(hr) = depth-damage function depending on inundation depth hr,and Dmax,i = maximum damage amount for land-use category i.
Literature review
Inundation scenarios
Literature review
Flood damage map
• “Urban micro-scale flood risk estimation with parsimonious hydraulic modeling and census data” implemented in Italy (2013)
Literature review
Digital Surface Model
Hydraulic model application
Maximum flood elevation in Florence for the 100-year flood scenarios and 200-year flood scenarios.
Computer programs: Hydraulic model (1-D/2-D model) and Geography Information System (GIS)
Literature review
Stage-Damage Curve
The relationship between stage (flood depth) and damage (%)
Literature review
Damage-return period curves Flood risk map
Where, EAD = expected annual damage; Dtot = total economic damage; and, Tr = return period (years).
• “The impact of risk aversion on optimal economic decisions” implemented in the Netherlands (2010)
Optimal crest level and cost
Literature review
Expected methodologyThe below flowchart is the expected approach methodology
One dimensional
hydraulic model
Flood mapping
HEC-RAS/MIKE QGIS/ArcGIS
Damage model and
Risk assessment
Damage scanner model
(Vensim)
Cross-section; water level; discharge, etc.
Model results; map, elevation, etc.
Flood map; probability; scenarios, etc.
Risk assessment
Projection based on scenarios
Model outputs
Methods
Tools
Data
Adaptation
Optimal model(Vensim)
Model outputs
1-D hydraulic model- Spatial data includes + maps of study areas (location of power plants);+ river network;+ river cross-sections;- Input data+ water flow at the upstream and middle of rivers;+ water level at the downstream and the middle of rivers;- Theory+ Saint-Venant equations
0 500 1000 1500 2000204
206
208
210
212
214
216
218
220
Beaver Cr. - unsteady flow Plan: Unsteady with 100 yr event 06/04/2015
Station (ft)
Ele
vatio
n (
ft)
Legend
EG Max WS
WS Max WS
Crit Max WS
Ground
Bank Sta
.088 .095
.085 .04 .09
Downstream water level
Upstream water flow
http://daac.ornl.gov/LBA/guides/CD06_CAMREX.html
Required data and theory
1-D hydraulic model
Saint-Venant Equations
Continuity equation
Momentum equation
Manning’s n equation
Required data and theory
Where, A = wetted area (m2); t = time (s); S = storage in the wetted area (m3); Q = channel flow (m3/s); x = distance along the thalweg (m); q1 = lateral flow along a river section (m3/s); V = mean velocity (m/s); z = water level (m); Sf = water surface slope; n = hydraulic roughness; R = hydraulic radius (m).
1-D hydraulic model
Model calibration
Required data and theory
where,NSC = Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient;Tsim = simulated data;Tobs = observed data.
The NSC closed to 1 results in the model is more accurate
Flood mapping
- Digital elevation model (DEM);- Roads map;- Map of land-use categories;- Location of power plants.
Required data and theory
System Dynamic Models- Inundation maps (results of flood mapping)- Land-use map- Probability of flooding (return period years)- Maximum damage values of land-use categories in the flood event year (in
the past)
Required data and theory
System Dynamic ModelsDamage locations, which are power plant locations
Required data and theory
System Dynamic ModelsStage-damage curves (depth-damage functions)
Required data and theory
Reference scheme for the vertical value distribution
Category Depth-damage function12… i n
System Dynamic ModelsTotal direct damage
where, D = total direct damage (won); i = damage category; r = location in the flood area; m = number of land-use categories; n = number of locations in the flood are; 𝛼𝑖 ( )= depth-damage ℎfunction depending on inundation depth h; 𝐷max,i = maximum damage amount for land-use category i.
Expected Annual Damage
where, EAD = expected annual damage (won/year); D(p) = f(p) = total direct damage (won);p = flood probability (1/year).
Required data and theory
System Dynamic ModelsReturn period and probability
where, p = exceedance probability (1/year); T = return period of extreme event (flood event).
If the number of events greater than 1 or equal to 1
where, P = probability of a T-year period occurring in n years;
Required data and theory
Expected results
• Inundation maps; and damage maps
• Prediction of economic loss through the future scenarios
(scenarios depend on sea level rise and probability)
• Degree of certainty and likelihood of extreme events
• Optimization of investment and repair cost (adaptation strategies)
THANK YOU