143110_bcptvna.pdf

Vietnam AirlinesBo co phn tch doanh nghip

Min trchBn bo co ny ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC), ch cung cp nhng thng tin chung v th trng v phn tch doanh nghip. Bo co ny khng c xy dng cung cp theo yu cu ca bt k t chc hay c nhn ring l no hoc cc quyt nh mua bn, nm gi chng khon. Nh u t ch nn s dng cc thng tin, phn tch, bnh lun ca Bn bo co nh l ngun tham kho trc khi a ra nhng quyt nh u t cho ring mnh. Mi thng tin, nhn nh v d bo v quan im trong bo co ny c da trn nhng ngun d liu ng tin cy. Tuy nhin Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v pht trin Vit Nam (BSC) khng m bo rng cc ngun thng tin ny l hon ton chnh xc v khng chu bt k mt trch nhim no i vi tnh chnh xc ca nhng thng tin c cp n trong bo co ny, cng nh khng chu trch nhim v nhng thit hi i vi vic s dng ton b hay mt phn ni dung ca bn bo co ny. Mi quan im cng nh nhn nh c cp trong bo co ny da trn s cn nhc cn trng, cng minh v hp l nht trong hin ti. Tuy nhin nhng quan im, nhn nh ny c th thay i m khng cn bo trc. Bn bo co ny c bn quyn v l ti sn ca Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam (BSC). Mi hnh vi sao chp, sa i, in n m khng c s ng ca BSC u l tri lut.

2 Bo co phn tch doanh nghip

Xy dng Vietnam Airlines tr thnh tp on kinh t mnh, lc lng vn ti ch lc, gi vai tr ch o trong giao thng hng khng Vit Nam v c gi tr xng ng trong khu vc Tiu vng CLMV vi cc c s h tng k thut bo dng, cng nghip hng khng v o to chuyn ngnh tin tin, l cu ni quan h quc t ca nc Vit Nam hi nhp, tr thnh hng hng khng c tm c ti khu vc ng Nam , ng thi gp phn tch cc pht trin kinh t x hi cc vng min v a phng, kinh doanh c hiu qu v l lc lng d b ng tin cy cho an ninh quc phng.

Phng n C phn ha, Vietnam Airlines

Mc lcGii thiu c hi u t 4

Trin vng ngnh Hng khng 8

Tng cng ty Hng khng Vit Nam 15

Phn tch ti chnh 24

D bo kt qu kinh doanh 32

Tng Cng ty Hng khng Vit Nam 3

Ngnh Hng khng th gii ang phc hi, Vit Nam nm trong khu vc Hng khng nng ng nht th gii.

FDI quay tr li Vit Nam, du lch ang tng trng nhanh. Dn s tng nhanh, thu nhp ci thin c bit l tng lp trung lu.

Vietnam Airlines l hng hng khng quc gia ca Vit Nam, ang c li th v quy m v sc mnh ca ton chui gi tr ngnh Hng khng. Vietnam Airlines v ang trong qu trnh u t v tng trng c v quy m ti sn, doanh thu v hiu qu hot ng. Vietnam Airlines cng l mt trong s t cc hng hng khng t li nhun ngay c trong nhng nm khng hong. Chng ti cho rng, c phn ha s l c hch mnh hn na Vietnam Airlines tn dng tt nht nn tng pht trin.

1 S hu h thng ti sn hu hnh v v hnh gm i bay tr, khu hao nhanh, mng bay rng, slot khai thc ti cc sn bay quc t, ngun nhn lc c o to bi bn v thng hiu c uy tn;

2 K hoch 05 nm 2014 - 2018 ca Vietnam

Airlines hng n nng cao hiu qu khai thc vi d bo nhu cu cc th trng chnh tng trng vi tc cao;

3 H thng cc cng ty thnh vin hot ng hiu qu trong lnh vc dch v hng khng.

Chng ti nh gi c phiu Vietnam Airlines hp dn. Vietnam Airlines d kin cho bn 20% cho c ng chin lc l tp on/hng hng khng v/hoc tp on ti chnh, gip tng nng lc ti chnh, kinh doanh, qun tr v thc y tng trng sau c phn ha.

Chng ti s dng phng php Adj EV/EBITDAR nh gi c phiu Vietnam Airlines. Mc gi hp l cho mt c phiu Vietnam Airlines l 23,412.

Gii thiu c hi u tNgnh Hng khng Vit Nam ang trong giai on tng trng nhanh vi ng lc mnh m.


T chc pht hnh

Thng tin v t chc pht hnh

Tn cng ty Tng Cng ty Hng khng Vit NamTn Ting Anh Vietnam Airlines Company LimitedTn vit tt Vietnam Airlinesa ch S 200, ph Nguyn Sn, phng B , qun Long

Bin, Thnh ph H NiTel +84.4.38272289Fax +84.4.38722375Website www.vietnamairlines.comVn ch s hu 10.016 t ng (31/12/2013)Lnh vc hot ng Vn ti hng khng, ph tr vn ti v kinh doanh

hng ha dch v v hot ng khc.Ngnh ngh kinh doanh chnh Vn ti hng khng

Thng tin v t cho bn

Mnh gi mi cp 10.000 ngS lng pht hnh ra cng chng

49.009.008 c phiu

Gi khi im 22.300 ngT l 3.475%

Nh nc

IPO

Nh u t chin lc

Cn b cng nhn vin

Cng on

C cu vn d kin

75%

3.475%

20%

1.475% 0.05%


Mt s ch tiu ti chnh chn lc n v: t VND

2010 2011 2012 2013Doanh thu thun 35,342 44,528 49,142 52,460

% tng trng 53.25% 25.99% 10.36% 6.75%Tng ti sn 38,514 48,546 55,500 59,336Vn ch s hu 8,445 8,267 9,292 10,016 Li nhun gp 4,875 3,430 4,134 5,548Li nhun sau thu 314 37 138 147

% tng trng y-o-y 133.29% -88.35% 277.51% 6.52%Bin li nhun gp 13.79% 7.70% 8.41% 10.58%ROE 3.72% 0.44% 1.49% 1.47%ROA 0.82% 0.08% 0.25% 0.25%

Ct mc pht trin

01/1956 Chnh ph thnh lp Cc Hng khng Dn dng09/1956 Chuyn bay ni a u tin c khai trng27/05/1995 Tng cng ty Hng khng Vit Nam (Vietnam Airlines) c thnh

lp 20/10/2002 Vietnam Airlines gii thiu biu tng mi- Bng Sen Vng04/04/2003 Vietnam Airlines c t chc li theo m hnh Cng ty m- Cng

ty con12/2006 Tr thnh thnh vin chnh thc ca IATA10/06/2010 Vietnam Airlines tr thnh thnh vin th 10 ca Lin minh hng

khng ton cu SkyTeam23/06/2010 Vietnam Airlines c chuyn thnh cng ty TNHH MTV do Nh

nc l ch s hu.


Trin vng ngnh Hng khngNgnh vn ti hng khng Vit Nam s tip tc tng trng mnh trong thi gian ti, da trn cc ng lc t (1) S phc hi ca ngnh Hng khng th gii, (2) Vit Nam nm trong khu vc Hng khng nng ng, (3) Hot ng u t v du lch tng trng nhanh, (4) Mc sng ngi dn c ci thin.


Ngnh Hng khng th gii phc hi sau khng hong

Tng trng tr liNgnh Hng khng th gii phc hi sau khng hong kinh t nm 2009. Nm 2013, ngnh Hng khng th gii t doanh thu 708 t USD (+4.3% yoy), chim 1% GDP ton th gii, li nhun 12,9 t USD (tng 2 ln so vi nm 2012). Vit Nam c li th nm trong khu vc nng ng th hai th gii v hng khng.

Tng trng doanh thu v bin li nhun ca ngnh Hng khng th gii

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

0

200

400

600

800

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu Bin li nhun gp Doanh thu (t USD) Bin li nhun Ngun: IATA


Th trng hng khng Chu u v Bc M

Bc M - Th trng tim nngL th trng c nhiu tim nng pht trin, tp trung nhiu nht s lng i bay trn ton th gii. Bc M l khu vc c GDP cao nht th gii (25% GDP ton cu 2013), GDP trn u ngi cng t mc cao nht, t 50,000 USD nm 2013.

Vietnam Airlines d kin m ca ng bay SGN LAX vo nm 2016 pht trin mng bay qua Thi Bnh Dng.

Chu u - Th trng c dung lng lnVi ng bay Chu u Vit Nam, khch hng ch yu l Vit kiu sinh sng v lm vic ti cc quc gia Chu u (500 600 ngn ngi) v khch quc tch Php, Anh, c, Nga (chim khong trn 70% khch chu u n Vit Nam). D bo trong nhng nm ti khi quan h Vit Nam Chu u ngy cng tht cht trn phng din vn ha v kinh t s gp phn thc y tc tng trng ca khu vc ny.

Mng ng bay Chu u v Bc M c ngha chin lc lu di vi Vietnam Airlines.

Tc tng trng ca cc th trng hng khng th gii

2%

11%

7%

4%

8%

7%

1%

13%

10%

5%

6%

8%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

Bc M

Trung ng

Chu M

Chu u

Chu Thi Bnh Dng

Chu Phi

Ngun: IATA 2012 2013


Th trng hp dnTc tng trng ti th trng chu - Thi Bnh Dng 2013 t 7.6% ch sau khu vc Trung ng. Xt theo li nhun nm 2013, ton th trng t tng quy m 3.2 t USD ch sau khu vc Bc M. Cc hng hng khng chu ang tng cng sut phc v bng vic t mua mt lng ln cc my bay mi, xy dng thm cc ng bay, nh ga. Giai on 2014 2020 c d bo s l giai on cnh tranh khc lit.

ng Bc - Th trng hiu qu chnhQuan h kinh t gia Vit Nam v cc quc gia ny ngy mt cht ch, chim phn ln lng u t FDI vo Vit Nam.

Mng ng bay ny ang chim ti 46.35% t trng vn ti quc t ca Vietnam Airlines; gm Nht Bn, Hn Quc, Trung Quc, Hng Kng v i Loan vi 27 ng bay, 14 im n v tn sut 128 chuyn/tun. Vietnam Airlines ang chim th phn p o trn mng ng bay gia Vietnam v ng Bc .

Vietnam Airlines s tip tc y mnh khai thc th trng ny nh tng tn sut bay, s dng cc loi my bay thn rng c trang b hin i, nng cao cht lng dch v, nng lc cnh tranh v hiu qu khai thc.

ng Nam - Th trng tng trng nhanhng Nam l th trng hng khng c tc tng trng cao nht ton cu. Theo s liu thng k ca CAPA v Innovata, th trng quc t ca ng Nam c mc tng trng 20% ch trong 18 thng (04/2012 10/2013), t mc 4.7 triu gh/tun ln 5.6 triu gh/tun.

Mng ng bay ny ang chim 21.94% tng lng khch vn chuyn quc t ca Vietnam Airlines nm 2013. Vietnam Airlines chim khong 5% th phn ti cung ng trn th trng hng khng khu

Khu vc tng trng mnh Chu Thi Bnh DngChu Thi Bnh Dng ang c tc tng trng v sinh li ln th 2 trn th gii.

Ngun: CAPA

Cng sut phc v ca cc hng hng khng theo tun t 20/10/2014 n 26/10/2014 (nghn gh)

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Garuda Indonesia

AirAsia

Malaysia Airlines

Thai Airways

Singapore Airlines

Vietnam Airlines

Thai AirAsia

Cebu Pacific


vc, khai thc 7 ng bay v 4 im n l Thi Lan, Singapore, Malaysia v Indonesia vi tn sut 99-102 chuyn/tun.

cLng khch t c n Vit Nam tip tc t mc tng trng n nh 10%. Vietnam Airlines l hng hng khng duy nht khai thc ng bay thng gia c v Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, Vietnam Airlines s phi tip tc cnh tranh vi cc hng c ng bay vng cht lng cao, c bit t Singapore Airlines, Thai Airways v Malaysia Airlines.

Tiu vng CLMV y l th trng tng trng nhanh, giai on 4/2012 n 10/2013 t hn 27% i vi Lo v Campuchia, v 76.8% i vi Myanmar. Tnh n thi im hin ti, theo CAPA, ti Cambodia, Vietnam Airlines chim 13,3% th phn vn ti quc t, trong khi Cambodia Angkor Air (Cng ty lin kt ca Vietnam Airlines) chim th phn 16,3%. Vietnam Airlines ang duy tr vai tr l hng hng khng ch cht ti cc th trng ny vi 8 ng bay vi 5 im n: Vientiane, LuangPrabang (Lo); Phnom Penh, Siem Riep (Campuchia) v Yangon (Myanmar). Tn sut khai thc ti y t mc hn 81 chuyn/tun.

Vietnam Airlines chim th phn ln nht trong th trng hng khng i v n Vit Nam, b kh xa cc hng hng khng khc.

Th phn vn chuyn hnh khch trn cc ng bay quc t i v n Vit Nam

40.6%

59.4%

Vietnam Airlines

Khc

T trng vn ti quc t ca Vietnam Airlines

12.10%

46.35%

21.94%

5.00%

14.61%

Chu u ng Bc ng Nam

c CLMV

Ngun: CAPA Ngun: Vietnam Airlines


Trin vng th trng Hng khng ni a

Tng trng mnh m Nm 2013, tng th trng vn chuyn ca cc hng Hng khng Vit Nam c t 20.7 triu lt khch (+18.2% yoy) v 221 nghn tn hng ha (+11% yoy)1. y l mc tng trng rt cao so vi mc tng 5.3% mng vn ti hnh khch v gim 1% mng vn ti hng ha ca khu vc Chu Thi Bnh Dng.

Chng ti nh gi th trng hng khng ni a cn nhiu tim nng tng trng. Trong giai on 2014 2018, th trng ni a c d bo tng trng bnh qun 15%/nm2, t hn 28.8 triu lt vo nm 2018. Ngnh Du lch ang tng trng nhanh km vi hot ng u t FDI v dn s tng nhanh s l ng lc ngnh Hng khng tip tc tng trng mnh.

Cc nhn t h trNgnh du lch Vit Nam c tc tng trng rt nhanh. Ngoi tr nm 2009 do nh hng ca suy thoi kinh t, doanh thu ngnh du lch v lng khch du lch lin tc tng vi tc tng trung bnh hng nm ln lt l 22% v 10.57%.

Vit Nam c dn s ng v thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ang trn tng mnh. Dn s Vit Nam cao th 3 trong khu vc, tng trung bnh 1.05%/nm theo

1 Bo co tng kt nm, Cc Hng Khng Vit Nam, 20132 Theo Vietnam Airlines

d bo 5 nm ca IMF. Nm 2013, thu nhp bnh qun u ngi ca Vit Nam t 1960 USD v k vng tng trung bnh 6.5% trong 5 nm ti.

FDI s duy tr mc tng n nh trong cc nm tip theo nh cc yu t: (1) Vic cam kt gi n nh t gi v kim ch lm pht ca Chnh ph; (2) Cc nc ng Nam , c bit l Vit Nam nhiu kh nng hng li t s chuyn dch dng vn FDI ra khi Trung Quc; (3) Hip nh thng mi t do FTA cng vi trin vng v TPP trong nhng nm ti.

V th ca Vietnam Airlines Vietnam Airlines c u th ln ti th trng ni a vi chin lc thng hiu kp (dual-brand) gia Vietnam Airlines v Jetstar Pacific Airlines.

Th trng Hng khng ni a ang trong thi k tng trng nhanh vi nhiu yu t h tr thun li t ngnh du lch v dn s.

Doanh thu t khch du lch (nghn t VND) v tng trng ti th trng hng khng Vit Nam

56 60 6896

130160

200240

%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F

Doanh thu khch du lch Tng trng

Ngun: Cc Hng khng dn dng Vit Nam


Trong giai on 2008 2013:

Th phn vn chuyn hnh khch, hnh l ni a trung bnh t 73.52%, tng trng hnh khch vn chuyn ni a bnh qun t 10.76%

Th phn vn ti hng ha, bu kin gn nh chim t l tuyt i, vi mc th phn trung bnh trong giai on 5 nm t xp x 90%, tng trng sn lng hng ha lun chuyn ni a t trung bnh 5.6%/nm.

ng bay im n

2008 27 192009 31 202010 35 202011 37 202012 38 202013 39 21

Chin lc ca Vietnam Airlines l hp tc cht ch vi sn phm ca Jetstar Pacific duy tr th phn ni a ca 2 hng khong 70 72%.

Vietnam Airlines ang chu p lc cnh tranh kh ln ti th trng ni a. Theo Cc Hng khng Dn dng Vit Nam, th phn ni a nm 2013 ca Vietjet Air t 26.1%, vi 3.2 triu hnh khch (tng khong 3 ln so vi nm 2012), trong khi Jetstar Pacific Airlines cng ty con ca Vietnam Airlines (hng hng khng hot ng theo m hnh chi ph thp) ch chim 15.2% th phn.

Vietnam Airlines s dng chin lc thng hiu kp cung cp di sn phm a dng , trong Vietnam Airlines hng n phn khc khch hng thu nhp cao v trung bnh, v Jetstar Pacific hng n phn khc khch hng thu nhp thp.


Vietnam Airlines l hng hng khng quc gia ca Vit Nam, chim th phn ln nht (51.8%) trong s cc hng hng khng khai thc ti Vit Nam. Nm 2013 Vietnam Airlines vn chuyn 15 triu lt khch v 184.606 tn hng ha qua 39 ng bay ni a v 52 ng bay quc t. Vietnam Airlines cng l hng hng khng c quy m ln trong khu vc ng Nam vi hai thng hiu (1) Hng hng khng truyn thng (Full-service carrier) vi mc tiu xy dng hnh nh hng hng khng 4 sao vo nm 2015-2016, (2) Cng ty con l Jetstar Pacific p ng nhu cu ngy cng cao ti phn khc hng khng gi r (LLC). Vietnam Airlines l thnh vin ca T chc Hng khng Dn dng Quc t (ICAO), Hip hi Vn ti Hng khng Quc t (IATA) v Lin minh Hng khng Skyteam (mt trong 3 lin minh hng khng ln nht th gii).

Vietnam Airlines


Hot ng kinh doanh tng trng nhanh

Doanh thu v li nhunDoanh thu tng trng trung bnh hng nm t 15.8% trong giai on 2008-2013 nh Vietnam Airlines m thm cc ng bay mi v nhu cu vn ti hng khng tng ln khi kinh t hi phc. So snh vi khu vc Chu , t l tng trng doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines thuc nhm tng trng nhanh nht.

Bin li nhun gp trung bnh ln ti 10.66% trong 5 nm 2009-2013. Vietnam

Airlines ch ng nhiu hot ng hng khng v dch v u vo thng qua nhng cng ty con/lin kt ca Vietnam Airilnes nh nhin liu my bay (Jet A1), bo dng sa cha...

Doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines n t 04 hot ng: (1) Hot ng vn ti hnh khch, hnh l; (2) Hot ng vn ti hng ha, bu kin; (3) Dch v ph tr vn ti hng khng v (4) u t ti chnh.

Vietnam Airlines ang duy tr tc tng trng cao so vi trung bnh ca khu vc Chu vn l khu vc nng ng ca hng khng th gii.

13%

-01%

04%01%

10%

07%

01%-01%

07%

ChinaSouthern

Air China China EasternCathay Pacific MalaysiaAirlines

GarudaIndonesia

SingaporeAirlines

Thai Airways VietnamAirlines

Tc tng trng doanh thu ca cc hng hng khng trong khu vc nm 2013

Ngun: Bo co ti chnh cc hng hng khng, BSC tng hp


Vn ti hnh khch & hnh l y l hot ng nn tng ca Vietnam Airlines, chim 86% doanh thu 2013.

Nm 2013, doanh thu vn ti hnh khch, hnh l t 45,407 t ng, tng hn 5% so vi 2012. Vietnam Airlines chim 51.8% th phn vn chuyn hnh khch tng mng trong ni a 63.2% v quc t 40.6%. Xt v c cu doanh thu, phn khc quc t gp n 66% trong c cu doanh thu vn ti hnh khch, hnh l.

Quy m doanh thu (nghn t) ca Vietnam Airlines

23.20

35.60

44.87

49.58

52.83

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Bin li nhun Vietnam Airlines

12.80%

13.79%

7.70%

8.41%

10.58%

0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Doanh thu vn chuyn hnh khch hnh l v tng s lt hnh khch vn chuyn

19 1827

3443 45

4

8

12

16

15

30

45

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu (nghn t ng) Lt khch vn chuyn (triu khch)

Ngun: Vietnam Airlines


Vn ti hng ha, bu kinL hot ng quan trng th 2 ng gp 8% vo tng doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines nm 2013.

Nm 2013, doanh thu vn ti hng ha, bu kin t 4,377 t, tng nh so vi 2012. Th phn tng mng ca Vietnam Airlines t mc 29%, trong th phn ni a t 75%, th phn quc t t khong 17%. Phn khc quc t ng gp n 78% tng doanh thu vn ti hng ha, bu kin ca Vietnam Airlines. Chng ti nh gi mng hot ng ny cn nhiu tim nng tng trng.

S chui gi tr

Doanh thu vn ti hng ha, bu kin v sn lng hng ha vn chuyn

2.21.5

2.6 2.8

4.4 4.4

50

100

150

200

250

1

2

3

4

5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu (nghn t ng) Sn lng hng ha vn chuyn (nghn tn)


Vietnam Airlines

DCH V NM TRONG DY CHUYN VN TI HNG KHNG

CUNG NG DCH V LIN QUAN N HNG KHNGCC HNG HNG KHNG

Sut n TSN Sut n Ni bi TCS VAECO

TECS NCTS VINAPCO

VINAKO ALS VNI VALC VFT Airserco In HK

APLACO NASCO MASCO Airimex Alsimexco AITS T vn xy

dng HK Cng trnh HK

Abacus u t HKVN

Khch sn HK

Cambodia Angkor Air (K6)

Jetstar Pacific Airline


i bay trTi thi im 31/12/2013, Vietnam Airlines c i bay gm 83 my bay gm 8 my bay s hu (3 Airbus 321, 3ATR 72 v 2 Fokker 70), 38 my bay thu ti chnh (4 Boeing777, 28 Airbus 321 v 6 ATR 72), 37 my bay thu khai thc (6 Boeing 777, 17 Airbus 321 v ton b i 9 tu Airbus 330 v 5 ATR 72). C th:

Dng my bay 280 - 300 gh (10 tu B777 v 9 tu A330): khai thc tm xa cc th trng Chu u, c v 1 s ng bay ti khu vc ng Bc .

Dng my bay 150 - 180 gh (48 Airbus 321): S dng khai thc cc chuyn bay ni a, cc chuyn bay quc t ti khu vc ng Nam , ng Bc .

Dng my bay 70 gh (14 ATR 72 v 2 Fokker 70): Dng khai thc cc ng bay a phng, tm bay ngn.

S hu khi ti sn gi tr

Vietnam Airlines ang s hu nhng ti sn hu hnh v v hnh c gi tr ln i bay, mng bay, slot, thng hiu v ngun nhn lc. Chng ti nh gi, gi tr s sch hin ti phn no cha phn nh ht c gi tr ti sn ca Vietnam Airlines.

C cu s hu i bay ca Vietnam Airlines (chic)

8 7 6 6 8

21 23 3136 38

2838

3938 37

0

20

40

60

80

100

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Mua Thu ti chnh Thu khai thc



Khu hao nhanhChng ti nh gi gi tr s sch hin ti ca i bay cha th hin ht gi tr thc t do chnh sch khu hao nhanh:

Tui my bay tr. i bay ca Vietnam Airlines c tui bay trung bnh l 5.34 nm, rt tr so vi khu vc cng nh th gii (thng thng my bay vn hnh c trn 25 nm).

Khu hao nhanh hn so vi thng l. Thi gian khu hao my bay ca Vietnam Airlines trung bnh 12-15 nm, thp hn so vi trung bnh ngnh t 15 n 20 nm, dn n chi ph khu hao cao hn cc hng hng khng khc.

Mng ng bay & gi h ct cnh (slot) ti cc sn bay quc tVietnam Airlines l hng hng khng Vit Nam c mng ng bay ln nht v tng nhanh. Mng ng bay l ti sn v hnh khng c nh gi ca Vietnam Airlines, gm 52 ng bay quc t v 39 ng bay ni a, gp nhiu ln so vi s lng ng bay ca cc hng hng khng Vit Nam khc. Mng ng bay ni a ca Vietnam Airlines bao gm:

Cc ng bay trc chnh H Ni TPHCM, H Ni Nng, H Ni TPHCM;

Cc ng bay trc l H Ni Cn Th, TPHCM Hi Phng, TPHCM Vinh;

Cc ng bay du lch n cc im du lch ni ting nh Hu, Nha Trang, Ph Quc, Lt, Cn o,...

Cc ng bay a phng ti Qung Bnh, Quy Nhn, Ty Nguyn,...

S lng my bay ca cc hng hng khng truyn thng chu (chic)

Tui trung bnh ca i bay ca cc hng hng khng dch v y chu (nm)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

China Southern

Air China

China Eastern

Cathay Pacific

Malaysia Airlines

Garuda Indonesia

Singapore Airlines

Thai Airways

Vietnam Airlines

PhilippineAirlines

China Airlines

0 200 400 600

China Southern

Air China

China Eastern

Cathay Pacific

Malaysia Airlines

Garuda Indonesia

Singapore Airlines

Thai Airways

Vietnam Airlines

PhilippineAirlines

China Airlines

Ngun: BSC tng hp


Hin Vietnam Airlines s hu trn 400 slot ti 29 im n ti cc sn bay quc t, trong c nhiu sn bay rt kh c cp quyn khai thc do mt khai thc ti cc sn bay ny cao nh Narita, Haneda (Nht Bn), Thng Hi, Hng Kng, Qung Chu, Bc Kinh (Trung Quc), Charles de Gaulle (Php)...

Chin lc pht trin cc ng bay quc t v cc ng bay ni a ca Vietnam Airlines hiu qu. Trong giai on 2014-2018, Vietnam Airlines s m rng khai thc cc ng bay quc t ng thi hon thin cc ng bay hin ti. c bit l nhng ng bay mang li hiu qu cao nh cc ng bay n khu vc ng Bc .

Thng hiu Vietnam Airlines c gi trVietnam Airlines hin l thng hiu c uy tn v v th tt trong cng ng hng khng th gii. Tng gim c Vietnam Airlines hin ang l thnh vin trong Hi ng iu hnh ca Hip hi Vn ti Hng khng Quc t IATA. Vietnam Airlines l hng Hng khng u tin trong khu vc ng Nam tham gia Skyteam, vt qua Malaysia Airlines v Garuda Airlines.

i ng nhn s tr, c o to bi bnS lng lao ng tr chim 75.9% di 45 tui, trong di 30 tui chim gn mt na. Lao ng c trnh trn i hc chim 45.8%. i ng lao ng qun l cp cao, c kin thc, chuyn mn v kinh nghim vng vng. i ng lao ng c th phi cng, k s, tip vin, k thut c o to bi bn, c nhit huyt cng hin cho ngnh Hng khng.

C cu mng ng bay ca Vietnam Airlines

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Ni a CLMV ng Bc

ngNam

Chuc

Chuu


S lng ng bay ca cc hng hng khng Vit Nam, 31/12/2013

39

15 14

52

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VietnamAirlines

Vietjet Air Jetstar

Ni a Quc t

Mng ng bay, slot, thng hiu v i ng nhn s hin l ti sn v hnh c gi tr ca Vietnam Airlines.

Ngun: BSC tng hp


Chng ti nh gi nng lc khai thc ca Vietnam Airlines s c tng cng ng k m bo vic thc hin k hoch 05 nm 2014 2018. Cc ch tiu hiu qu s tng ln mc tim cn vi cc hng hng khng trong khu vc n nm 2018.

Tp trung u t my bay thn rng Vietnam Airlines ln k hoch tng quy m i bay ln 116 chic vo nm 2018 (s my bay thn rng tng t 19 ln 38 chic v thanh l cc my bay trn 15 tui). Tng s my bay khai thc s thc hin tip nhn trong giai on 2014 - 2018 ch yu gm 7 tu bay A321, 19 tu bay B787-9, v 12 tu bay A350.

Bng vic a vo khai thc v s dng hiu qu i tu bay Boeing 787 v A350 mi, Vietnam Airlines s tng hiu sut s dng my bay trung bnh ca ton i bay.

Tng tn sut cc ng bay hiu qu (ni a v quc t) Vietnam Airlines s tp trung tng tn sut khai thc, hon thin sn phm 2 chuyn/ngy vi cc ng bay ng Bc & ng Nam , hon thin mng bay n Chu u. i vi th trng ni a, hng s tip tc tng tn sut ca nhng ng bay chnh.

Nng hng dch v v ci thin c cu khch hngVietnam Airlines t mc tiu nng cao cht lng dch v ln tiu chun 4 sao vo nm 2015-2016 (hin ti mt s ch tiu t 4 sao v 5 sao). iu gip Vietnam Airlines ci thin c cu khch

K hoch 05 nm Tng hiu qu khai thc

Trn c s tim nng nng cao hiu qu khai thc, Vietnam Airlines trin khai k hoch 05 nm 2014 - 2018, hng n mc tiu thuc nhm hng hng khng dn u khu vc Asean v quy m.

D bo s gi bay trung bnh ca i bay Vietnam Airlines (gi/ngy/my bay)

9.08

9.05

8.63

9.12

9.80

10.14

10.41

10.56

2011

2012

2013

2014F

2015F

2016F

2017F

2018F

hng, t tng doanh thu trung bnh trn mt hnh khch.

y mnh hp tc vi cc hng hng khng quc t trong v ngoi Skyteam Vietnam Airlines s tng cng hp tc vi cc hng hng khng ln, c uy tn trn th gii thng qua cc hnh thc: Hp tc lin danh (codeshare), hp tc chia chng c bit (SPA) v hp tc cng nhn chng t (Interlines). Nh , Vietnam Airlines m rng c mng li kinh doanh, a dng ha sn phm, gip tng hiu sut chuyn ch v gi v bnh qun.


Trong khun kh lin minh ton cu SkyTeam, Vietnam Airlines nghin cu kh nng m rng mng ng bay thng qua hp tc lin danh tng bc thm nhp cc th trng mi; nng cao, ng b ha cht lng dch v tiu chun quc t. Vietnam Airlines m rng hp tc sang cc lnh vc hp tc a phng trong cc lnh vc hp tc v u t, mua sm chung nhm tn dng th mnh ca tng hng thnh vin, phi hp lch bay v mng bay, i bay.

T l phi cng trong nc tng dn gip tit kim chi ph Phi cng l ngun nhn lc quan trng nht ca Vietnam Airlines, c bit khi hng s chuyn sang khai thc cc th h my bay mi (B787, A350) trong cc nm tip theo.

D kin c cu phi cng ca Vietnam Airlines

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Vit Nam Nc ngoi


Vietnam Airlines t k hoch duy tr t l phi cng Vit Nam trn 70% trong giai on 2014 2018. Do tin lng phi cng lun chim t trng ln nht trong c cu chi ph nhn cng ca hng (72%), vic tng t trng phi cng ngi Vit s gip Vietnam Airlines tit kim c mt khon chi ph nhn cng ng k.


Phn tch ti chnhTi ngy 31/12/2013, Tng Cng ty Hng Khng Vit Nam c tng cng 26 n v, trong gm 17 cng ty con; 9 cng ty lin kt c hch ton theo phng php vn ch s hu trong bo co ti chnh hp nht.


C th, gi tr c phiu ca Vietnam Airlines s c cu thnh t gi tr ca cc mng hot ng kinh doanh v u t vn bao gm:

Kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca Cng ty m.

Gi tr kt qu hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca nhm cc cng ty con sau khi khu tr li ch ca cc c ng thiu s.

Gi tr thu v t hot ng u t vn di hn vo cc cng ty lin kt v cc khon u t vn di hn khc.

Chng ti nh gi tnh hnh ti chnh ca Vietnam Airlines lnh mnh. Trong giai on 2009 - 2013, h s Tng Ti sn/Vn ch s hu hin ang mc cao nhng chng ti nh gi sc khe ti chnh ca Vietnam Airlines s tip tc c ci thin sau c phn ha trn cc phng din (1) tng trng doanh thu, li nhun v (2) cht lng ti sn, danh mc u t v c cu vn.

Tng quan ti chnh doanh nghip

Chng ti cho rng, phm vi phn tch, nh gi gi tr doanh nghip c c phn ha cn c m rng thc hin trn c bo co ti chnh hp nht.


Phn tch ti chnh cng ty m

i vi bo co ti chnh ring ca Vietnam Airlines, chng ti phn tch trn mt s im trng yu gm quy m v c cu ti sn, ngun vn, nng lc hot ng v kh nng sinh li.

Ti snQuy m Tng ti sn tng trng nhanh v t trng ti sn di hn c xu hng tng dn. Trong giai on 2009 2013, tng ti sn ca Vietnam Airlines tng trng bnh qun 16.57%.

Quy m ti sn v doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines

23.1

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5 55.5 59

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Doanh thu thun Tng ti sn


Trong giai on ny, Vietnam Airlines tin hnh nng cp i bay t 57 my bay (2009) ln 83 my bay (2013). Tnh ti thi im 31/12/2013, tng gi tr ti sn l my bay/ng c my bay (bao gm c cc khon tr trc tin mua, t cc my bay/ng c my bay) ln ti 44,575 t ng v chim 75.12% tng ti sn. Trong gi tr my bay/ng c my bay s hu v thu ti chnh ln lt chim ti 10.34% v 47.59% tng ti sn).

C cu ti sn ca Vietnam Airlines

84%

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87%

85%

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13%

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Ti sn di hn Ti sn ngn hn


C cu ngun vnDo c th ngnh Hng khng vi quy m u t ti sn rt ln, nn h s N/Vn ch s hu ca Vietnam Airlines ang mc cao, t trung bnh 4.92 trong 3 nm gn y. Tnh n 31/12/2013, ton b khon vay v n di hn ca Vietnam Airlines c tr gi 37.82 nghn t ng. Tuy nhin, kh nng tr li vay ca doanh nghip vn c duy tr tt vi ch s Interest coverage ratio (EBIT/Interest expense) t trung bnh 1.11. Hn na, chng ti nhn thy chi ph ti chnh ca Vietnam Airlines c tit gim ng k do doanh nghip c hng mc li sut thp vi

Ti ngy 31/12/2013, theo BCTC kim ton, Vietnam Airlines c tng cng 37 my bay thu hot ng, 38 my bay thu ti chnh v 8 my bay s hu.


ton b cc ngun vay tn dng xut khu c bo lnh bi B Ti chnh.

V li sut c th, vi cc khon n di hn, c hng li sut th ni LIBOR 6 thng cng bin dao ng t 0% 3.95%; hoc li sut c nh dao ng t 2.1% - 4.86%/nm. Vi cc khon vay di hn, tng ng vi tng loi tin t VND, USD v EUR chu li sut bnh qun gia quyn ln lt vi li sut tng ng khong 6.2%/nm, 4.6%/nm v 2.1%/nm.

Cc ch tiu nng lcDo c th ca ngnh vn ti hng khng (bn v thu tin trc vn chuyn sau, nhiu khon chi dch v c thanh ton sau) nn Vietnam Airlines lun c ngun vn kh dng n nh. Cc ch tiu s ngy vng quay hng tn kho v phi thu u mc thp, trong khi s ngy vng quay phi tr mc cao. a s cc khon phi thu ngn hn v di hn khc l cc khon tr trc ca cc hp ng mua hoc sa cha my bay, ng c,Cc khon tr trc ny chim ln lt ti 71.47% v 69.28% khon phi thu ngn hn/di hn nm 2012 v 2013.

Cc ch tiu nng lc hot ng v thanh ton u mc tt so vi ngnh Hng khng khu vc.

Trong giai on 5 nm (2009 2013), h s thanh ton hin thi ca Vietnam Airlines trung bnh l 0.59, h s thanh ton nhanh trung bnh t 0.54 u cao hn v tt hn so vi ch s trung bnh ca nhm cc hng hng khng thuc th trng chu mi ni ln lt t 0.52 v 0.36.

2010 2011 2012 2013S ngy hng tn kho 5.84 3.99 3.05 2.69

S ngy khon phi thu 18.99 18.32 16.72 15.02S ngy khon phi tr 46.99 47.13 50.00 57.52

Doanh thuH s Doanh thu/Tng ti sn t trung bnh 0.90, cao hn so vi cc hng hng khng trong khu vc (ch t 0.68). Giai on 2009 2013, doanh thu thun t tc tng trng bnh qun CAGR 22.81%, cao hn tc tng trng ca ti sn (16.57%).

Doanh thu tng trng nhanh, ch yu xut pht t vic m rng hot ng khai thc trn cc ng bay quc t.

Qu trnh u t tng thm my bay mang li hiu qu khi h s chuyn ch hnh khch tng mng tng u qua cc nm (t 73.1% ln 79.3%). Ngun thu ngoi t ca Vietnam Airlines hin chim 48,59% tng ngun thu, phn ln l cc ng tin USD, EUR, JPY, AUD, KRW v CNY.

C cu chi phBin li nhun ca Vietnam Airlines c ci thin ng k, tng t mc 7.7% (2011) ln 8.41% (2012) v t 10.58% (2013).Trong c cu gi vn gm cc loi chi ph chnh nh sau: chi ph nguyn liu vt liu, chi ph khu hao ti sn c nh, chi ph nhn cng v chi ph dch v mua ngoi.

Chi ph nhin liu lun chim t trng ln, chim khong 37% tng chi ph, y l nhin liu c chng, khng c hng ha thay th v c th ca hot ng vn ti hng khng nn s thay i v gi nhin liu s c tc ng mnh ti chi ph v li nhun ca Vietnam Airlines. Do , t nm 2009, Vietnam Airlines k cc hp ng bo him ri ro gi nhin liu vi cc ngn hng uy tn, t gip gim chi ph gi nhin liu l 149 t ng (2011) v hn 65 t ng (2013).

T l khu hao my bay ca Vietnam Airlines ln hn so vi cc hng hng khng full-service trong khu vc. Vi s nm khu hao my bay t 12 15 nm, chng ti nh gi Vietnam Airlines ang s dng mc khu hao cao cho ti sn my bay do

Vietnam Airlines s dng ti a cc ngun vn vn vay tn dng xut khu c bo lnh ca B Ti chnh vi thi hn di, chi ph vn thp.


cng trong th trng chu , cc hng hng khng Trung Quc nh Air China, China Southern s dng mc khu hao 15 20 nm, Singapore Airlines s dng khu hao trn 15 nm, Malaysia Airlines trn 20 nm v Garuda Indonesia t 18 22 nm, cho thy mc li nhun nh hin nay cha th hin ht hiu qu kinh doanh ca Vietnam Airlines.

Chi ph nhn cng c nh hng tit gim theo chnh sch tit kim v tng nng sut lao ng. Trong giai on 2009 - 2013, h s hnh khch vn chuyn/nhn vin tng t 1,661 ln 1,840. Nm 2013, chi ph nhn cng mc 3,848.67 t ng, bng 98.89% chi ph nhn cng nm 2012 mc d

sn lng dch v cung ng tng ln ng k. Hn na, chi ph nhn cng r ang l li th ca Vietnam Airlines, ch chim 7% trong tng chi ph, trong khi chi ph ny chim ti hn 10% - 15% i vi cc hng hng khng khc trong khu vc.

Chi ph dch v mua ngoi nm 2013 t 23.108 t ng, tng 7.18% so vi nm 2012 ch yu do tng thu hot ng thm 3 my bay A321 v 2 ng c my bay; cn li cc chi ph thuc khon ny nh chi ph phc v chuyn bay, bo him hng khng, dch v phc v hnh khch v dch v phc v bn u mc tng ng nm 2012.

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Gi tr % Gi tr % Gi tr % Gi tr % Gi tr %

Chi ph nguyn liu, vt liu

8,336 36.89% 13,492 39.01% 17,716 39.34% 19,597 40.10% 20,351 39.68%

Chi ph nhn cng

2,028 8.97% 2,720 7.86% 3,843 8.53% 3,892 7.96% 3,849 7.50%

Chi ph khu hao ti sn c nh

1,560 6.90% 1,791 5.18% 2,171 4.82% 2,796 5.72% 3,419 6.67%

Chi ph dch v mua ngoi

10,370 45.88% 16,177 46.77% 20,573 45.69% 21,559 44.12% 23,108 45.05%

Chi ph khc bng tin

306 1.35% 406 1.17% 726 1.61% 1,023 2.09% 567 1.11%

Tng 22,601 100.00 34,587 100.00 45,028 100.00 48,867 100.00 51,294 100.00

Trong 3 nm gn y cc chi ph hot ng n nh gip ch s ROE ca Vietnam Airlines c ci thin tt, tng t 0.44% nm 2011 ln 1.47% trong nm 2013


Bo co ti chnh hp nht phn nh tnh hnh sn xut kinh doanh tng hp ca Cng ty m - Tng cng ty Hng khng Vit Nam, cc cng ty con v cng ty lin kt.

Ti snQuy m Tng ti sn tip tc duy tr tng qua cc nm do Cng ty m ang trong l trnh nng cp i bay: Giai on 2009 2013, tng trng bnh qun Tng ti sn t 18.41%, quy m t 69,644 t nm 2013.

C cu ti sn trn BCTC hp nht

25%

34%

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25%

75%

66%

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75%

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2009

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2013

Tng ti sn Ti sn di hn Ti sn ngn hn Ti sn di hn

So snh vi BCTC Cng ty m, mc chnh lch ti sn ngn hn ln, ch yu gm: (1) Chnh lch khon tng ng tin hn 2,400 t ng, trong 2,112 t ng l khon tin gi ngn hng ca Vinapco; (2) Chnh lch hng tn kho 3,727 t, trong 3,188 t ng l ti sn ca Vinapco ti thi im 31/12/2013.

Chnh lch ti sn di hn khng ng k, do phn ti sn c gi tr ln nht l i tu bay thuc s hu ca Cng ty m.

Vay v N di hnVay v N di hn chim t trng ln trong c cu Vn v ch yu phc v hot ng ca Cng ty m: H s N/Tng ti sn tng t 0.78 (2009) ln 0.85 (2013); Vay v N/Tng ti sn tng tng ng t 0.57 ln 0.62 ch yu do Cng ty m tng cc khon thu ti chnh my bay v ng c my bay.

C th, vi Vay v N di hn, ngoi tr cng ty m c N di hn do thu ti chnh my bay, cc cng ty con v lin kt ch Vay di hn vi gi tr nh; trong , Cng ty TNHH K thut my bay (VAECO) l cng ty con c gi tr vay di hn cao nht t 190.14 t ng l khon vay cho Cng trnh nh xng Hangar A76. Vi Vay v N ngn hn, khon vay ngn hn ca Vinapco ng gp ti 5,226.79 t ng (chim 99.35% mc vay ngn hn trong BCTC hp nht). y l cc khon vay bng USD di hnh thc vay tn chp, mc li sut t 2 2.5%/nm, ch yu dng thanh ton tin nhp khu nhin liu Jet A1.

Doanh thuDoanh thu hot ng kinh doanh t mc tng trng cao v hot ng u t ti chnh mang li hiu qu tt. Tng ng vi mc tng bnh qun tng ti sn 18.41% (2009 2013), Doanh thu thun t mc tng trng 20.55%, t s Doanh thu/Tng ti sn trung bnh t 1.0. Bin li nhun gp lun dao ng qua cc nm (do nh hng ca din bin gi nhin liu), trung bnh t 10.94%.

Phn tch bo co ti chnh hp nhtBo co ti chnh hp nht phn nh tnh hnh sn xut kinh doanh tng hp ca Cng ty m - Tng cng ty Hng khng Vit Nam, cc cng ty con v cng ty lin kt.


C cu doanh thu hp nht

17.2%

77.9%

4.9%

Doanh thu bn hng

Doanh thu Vn ti hng khng

Doanh thu hot ng ph tr vn ti

Hot ng ti chnh c hiu qu tt, vi t sut thu c t c tc, li nhun c chia v c phiu thng trn tng gi tr phn vn u t t 9.36% nm 2013 (7.73% nm 2012). Ngoi ra, trong nm 2013, hot ng ti chnh cn c thm 185 t ng li chuyn nhng vn gp t hot ng thoi vn ti Techcombank.

Kh nng thanh tonKh nng thanh ton v nng lc hot ng mc kh tt so vi trung bnh ngnh qua cc nm: giai on 2009 2013, kh nng thanh ton suy yu nh khi h s thanh ton ngn hn v h s thanh ton nhanh c xu hng gim, t ln lt 0.66 v 0.49 nm 2013, tuy nhin vn c nh gi mc kh

tt nu so vi trung bnh ngnh trong khu vc chu mi ni (0.52 v 0.36). V nng lc hot ng, ng ch s ngy khon phi thu ang trong xu hng gim t 20.74 ngy (2010) xung cn 17.42 ngy (2013), s ngy khon phi tr li tng r rt t 44.26 ngy (2010) ln 57.42 ngy (2013) cho thy kh nng chim dng vn v vng quay quy i tin ang dn c ci thin. Xt tng th hp nht, kh nng chi tr cc khon vay vn c m bo tt vi ch s Interest coverage ratio c duy tr quanh mc 1.37 trong 3 nm gn y.

Tc tng trng doanh thu v ti sn hp nht

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Doanh thu thun Tng ti sn


L hng hng khng quc gia, c thng hiu mnh trong ni a v khu vc CLMV;

L hng hng khng truyn thng duy nht ti Vit Nam; sn phm ni a c s khc bit ha (hng C, chng trnh GLP);

H thng phc v ng b, a dng, hn ch ph thuc vo i tc cung ng;

Dn u th phn trn cc ng bay thng Vit Nam - Chu u; Vit Nam CLM v ni a Vit Nam.

i bay tip tc c i mi vi s b sung ca A350-900 v B787-9 t nm 2015 lm tng kh nng cnh tranh ca ngun lc, i u xu hng pht trin v cng ngh tu bay so vi cc hng trong khu vc.

Phn tch SWOT

SWOTtrength SWOTeakness Doanh thu trung bnh ti cc ng bay

quc t cn cha cao do t trng khch c thu nhp cao thp.

Cht lng dch v cn mc thp hn so vi cc hng ln trong khu vc;

Nng lc cnh tranh trn th trng quc t cha cao;

Chi ph khai thc c nh vn mc cao;

Nng lc ti chnh, vn b hn ch;

SWOTpportunities SWOThreats V tr a l: Nm gia ng Bc , ng

Nam , Chu u, Nam Thi Bnh Dng v Trung Quc nn l ca ng ca cc khu vc;

Tc pht trin ca ngnh du lch nhanh; Vit Nam l im u t hp dn (nm 2012 xp th 11 trn th gii);

Dn s trn 88,7 triu v thu nhp ngy cng ci thin. GDP Vit Nam c d bo s tip tc tng trng vi mc tng trn 5%/nm;

Khch i/n Vit Nam vn tip tc tng trng vi tc bnh qun 10%/nm (theo d bo ca IATA);

C hi hp tc i vi cc thnh vin trong lin minh SkyTeam.

Tnh hnh kinh t chnh tr ti cc quc gia l im n ca Vietnam Airlines cn nhiu bin ng;

Cc ri ro kinh t v m vn hin hu: lm pht tng cao, ng ni t mt gi, gi nhin liu ng mc cao;

Cnh tranh gay gt t cc hng hng khng truyn thng v cc LCC ln trn th gii, c bit ti th trng ni a, khu vc v chu u;

H tng sn bay cha theo kp vi yu cu pht trin ca ngnh Hng khng; s lng ch tu bay ti cc sn bay cn c HAN, SGN b hn ch;

Lao ng chuyn ngnh Hng khng khan him, c bit l phi cng, th k thut;


Chng ti d bo kt qu kinh doanh giai on 2014 2018 ca Vietnam Airlines cn c trn k hoch kinh doanh do doanh nghip xy dng (gm k hoch i bay, k hoch u t, k hoch ti chnh, nhn lc, mng ng bay...). Chng ti cng lu , bn cnh k hoch ca Vietnam Airlines, d bo ca chng ti da trn cc gi nh thn trng v nhu cu vn ti hng khng n v i t Vit Nam. Tuy nhin, chng ti cho rng s phc hi ca nhu cu vn chuyn hng khng c th s mnh m hn d kin, dn n thc t kt qu ca cng ty m c th cao s hn d bo thn trng ca chng ti.

D bo kt qu kinh doanh


Chng ti tin hnh d bo doanh thu cn c trn 4 mng hot ng chnh l (1) Hot ng vn ti hnh khch, hnh l; (2) Hot ng vn ti hng ha, bu kin; (3) Dch v ph tr vn ti hng khng v (4) u t ti chnh. C th nh sau:

Doanh thu vn ti hnh khch & hnh l(S gh cung ng x h s chuyn ch x gi v)

Chng ti d bo nh vic m rng mng bay, tp trung u t my bay thn rng gip s gh cung ng tng trung bnh mi nm khong hn 10%; h s chuyn ch c duy tr khong 80% v gi v n nh. Doanh thu vn chuyn hnh khch c d bo tng trng kp hng nm t 15.09% t 2014-2018.

Doanh thu vn ti hng ha & bu kin (Ti cung ng x h s chuyn ch x doanh thu vn chuyn/tn)

Trong giai on 2014-2018, BSC d bo doanh thu vn ti hng ha s tng nh vo nm 2014 v 2015 sau tng mnh vo cc nm tip theo do nng lc vn chuyn phc v vn ti hng ha bu kin c ci thin thng qua vic Vietnam Airlines a cc dng my bay thn rng Boeing 787 v A350 vo khai thc. ng thi, h s chuyn ch v cc vn chuyn c d bo duy tr n nh.

Doanh thu t dch v khc Doanh thu khc ca Vietnam Airlines bao gm doanh thu t cc dch v ph tr vn ti hng khng (doanh thu phc v k thut thng mi mt t v u t ti chnh, qung co, cho thu my bay Chng ti thc hin d bo doanh thu khc da theo t l tng

trng ca doanh thu vn chuyn hnh khch hoc theo t l tng trng bnh qun hng nm ca tng loi doanh thu.

Doanh thu hot ng ti chnhTrong 05 nm tip theo BSC d bo cc cng ty con v cng ty lin kt ca Vietnam Airlines s tng trng tt, em li ngun thu nhp n nh cho Vietnam Airlines trn c s pht trin cc v th sn c ti th trng ni a.

Chi phCc chi ph chnh bao gm chi ph nhin liu, bo dng, thu my bay, nhn cng, khu hao, , dch v hnh khc, bo him, ph,) v cc chi ph gin tip (bn hng, qun l,). Cc chi ph ny c d bo theo cc biu ph v k hoch pht trin ng bay, i bay v nhn lc ca Vietnam Airlines. C th:

Chi ph trc tip: cn c theo nh mc cc chi ph trc tip cho tng chuyn bay.

Chi ph gin tip: da theo t l tng trng doanh thu.

Chi ph khu hao: chng ti d bo chi ph khu hao s tng mnh trong giai on 2014-2018 do gn lin vi k hoch pht trin i bay ca Vietnam Airlines.

Chi ph ti chnh: cn c vo k hoch ti chnh ca Vietnam Airlines,

Phng php lun


Kt qu kinh doanh ca Vietnam Airlines s c ci thin nhanh chng trong giai on 2014-2018 nh tp trung u t mi i my bay thn rng (Boeing 787 v A350) c tnh nng tit kim nhin liu, m rng cc ng bay quc t v nng tn sut cc ng bay hin ti gip doanh thu tng trng nhanh, tng hiu qu khai thc, tit kim chi ph, t ci thin li nhun. C th:

Trn quan im thn trng, BSC d bo doanh thu ca Vietnam Airlines s t 57,357 t ng vo nm 2014 v t 105,863 t ng vo nm 2018,

tng ng vi tc tng trng kp bnh qun t 15.07% trong giai on 2014-2018. K vng tip tc tng trng nhanh ca th trng ng Bc v cc ng bay ni a hiu qu l nhng yu t ng gp chnh cho vic tng trng doanh thu trong giai on ny.

Li nhun sau thu ca Vietnam Airlines s t 269 t ng vo nm 2014 v tng nhanh ln 2,990 t ng vo nm 2018.

Kt qu d bo chi tit ca BSC c trnh by c th trong ph lc 05

Kt qu d boChng ti d bo kt qu kinh doanh ca Vietnam Airlines s c ci thin nhanh chng trong giai on 2014-2018


Chng ti s dng kt hp 3 phng php (Adj EV/EBITDAR, P/E v P/B) nh gi Vietnam Airlines v cc cng ty con, cng ty lin kt.

nh gi


i vi Cng ty m Chng ti s dng Phng php Adj EV/EBITDAR do y l phng php c hu ht cc t chc t vn s dng nh gi cc hng hng khng. Phng php trn c hai u im chnh: (1) Phn nh lng vn c s dng c tnh n mt cch y cc chi ph c c i bay khai thc (i bay s hu v i bay thu hot ng); (2) Hn ch nh hng ca chnh sch k ton (khu hao), chnh sch thu v chi ph vn vay trong qu trnh so snh kt qu hot ng ca cc hng hng khng.

Phng php ny tham chiu mc bi EV/EBITDAR ca gi tr doanh nghip so vi EV/EBITDAR ca cc hng hng khng khu vc Chu tng ng lm c s xc nh gi tr cho Vietnam Airlines. Gi tr ca Vietnam Airlines sau c tr n rng (debt -

cash), gi tr vn ha ca khon thu (Capitalization of Operating Leases).

i vi cc cng ty con v cc cng ty lin kt Chng ti p dng 02 Phng php:

Phng php Gi/Thu nhp (P/E). Chng ti tham chiu ch s P/E ca VNindex trn sn chng khon TP H Ch Minh (c iu chnh chit khu do cc cng ty cha nim yt), sau nhn (x) vi thu nhp sau thu v t l s hu ca Vietnam Airlines ti cc cng ty ny ti thi im 31/12/2013.

Phng php Gi/Gi tr s sch (P/B). i vi cc cng ty cn li chng ti gi nguyn phn gi tr s sch ca khon u t ca Vietnam Airlines vo cc cng ty ny (P/B = 1 ln).

Phng php lun

Cng ty m, cc cng ty con v cc cng ty lin kt ca Vietnam Airlines c nh gi ring, sau cng gp gi tr.


Kt qu nh gi

nh gi Cng ty mChng ti tin hnh nh gi Vietnam Airlines da trn mt s gi nh c bn sau:

Mc bi Adj EV/EBITDAR c tham chiu mc bi ca gi tr doanh nghip so vi EBITDAR ca cc hng hng khng truyn thng tng ng trong khu vc chu . C th mc bi p dng cho Vietnam Airlines l 8.19.

Mc bi khon thu Multiple of Rent l tha s ca tui trung bnh ca i bay v chi ph bay v mc 7 l mc bi thng c s dng nhiu nht trong vic tnh ton gi tr vn ha khon thu my bay.

Mt s d bo cho nm 2014 ca Cng ty m Tin mt: 6,769 t ng, tng mnh do thu c t

vic c phn ha trong nm.

Vay n di hn: 35,233 t, tng 4,047 t ng so vi cui nm 2013 do vay thm mua 4 my bay A321 trong nm.

Vay n ngn hn: 7,516 t ng, tng 863 t ng do n ngn hn ch yu l vay n di hn v n thu ti chnh n hn tr.

Chi ph thu hot ng: 6,129 t ng, gim nh so vi 2013 do hp ng thu 2 chic B777 ht hn vo thng 5 v thng 12 trong khi khng c hp ng thu my bay mi trong nm 2014.

EBITDAR: 12,101 t ng, tng 12% so vi nm 2013 do tng khu hao ca 4 my bay mi mua ng thi li nhun rng c ci thin do hiu qu khai thc tng ln.

Da trn cc gi nh v d bo trn, gi tr ring ca phn vn ti Cng ty m c tnh ton theo s sau:

S dng phng php lun nu trn, chng ti nh gi c phiu Vietnam Airlines mc 23,412 VND.

EBITDAR 12,101

Adj EV/EBITDAR 8.19

N ngn hn 7,516

N di hn 35,233

Tin mt 6,769

Operating lease 6,129

Multiple of Rent 7

Gi tr cng ty c iu chnh 99,107 N rng 35,980

Capitalised operating lease 42,900

Gi tr phn vn 20,227

S nh gi Cng ty m (t ng)


nh gi cc n v thnh vinBSC cho rng P/E v P/B ca ch s chng khon chnh phn nh mc chp nhn ca nh u t i vi gi tr ca c phiu. Do vy BSC tham chiu cc ch tiu ny lm cn c nh gi phn vn ca Vietnam Airlines trong cc doanh nghip thnh vin.

P/E s dng l 12.0 ln (chit khu so vi P/E VNindex 15.3)

P/B s dng l 1.0 ln (chit khu so vi P/B ca VNindex 2)

Kt qu tng gi tr phn vn gp ca Vietnam Airlines ti 16 cng ty con v cng ty lin kt c nh gi l 7,956 t ng, tng 4,533 t ng.

Chi tit nh gi vi tng doanh nghip c trnh by c th ti ph lc 01.

Kt qu nh giCng ty m, cc cng ty con v cc cng ty lin kt c nh gi ring sau cng gp tng phn. Tng gi tr Vietnam Airlines l 24,760 t ng tng ng vi 23,412 ng/cp. C th trong :

Gi tr ca Cng ty m Vietnam Airlines: 20,227 t ng

Gi tr tng thm khi nh gi li phn vn gp ti cc n v thnh vin: 4,533 t ng

Phng php cng hp

Tng gi tr Vietnam Airlines T VND 24,760

Cng ty m T VND 20,227

Chnh lch nh gi li cng ty con v cng ty lin kt T VND 4,533

S lng CP Tr CP 1,058

Gi CP Vietnam Airlines VND/CP 23,412


Jetstar Pacific AirlinesJPA cung cp cc dch v vn chuyn hng khng hnh khch, hng ha trn cc chuyn bay ni a v quc t hng vo phn khc gi r LCC, i th cnh tranh chnh ti Vit Nam l Viet Jet Air.

CTCP Hng khng Jestar Pacific Airlines l hng hng khng gi r u tin ti Vit Nam, tin thn l Pacific Airlines, c thnh lp nm 1992. Cc c ng ln gm Vietnam Airlines (67.8%), Qantas (30%) v Saigon Tourist (2.14%).

Doanh thu thun t 2,656 t ng nm 2013 (giai on 2011 2013 tng bnh qun 1.29%) v bt u c li nhun gp 36 t ng. Nm 2013, JPA vn chyn hn 2 triu lt hnh khch trn 12,511 chuyn tng, 9.8% so vi 2012. Trc nm 2013, JPA trong tnh trng LNST m v ch ci thin khi cng ty tit gim c chi ph thu v bo dng my bay cng nh chi ph nhn cng, hon thnh

chng trnh chuyn i ton b i bay t B737 c sang A320 khai thc hiu qu hn.

Doanh thu thun JPA (t VND)

1775

2077

2588

2581

2656

1,000 2,000 3,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

JPA ang y mnh k hoch pht trin i bay v mng ng bay trong nm 2014 tng nng lc cnh tranh vi Vietjet Air; JPA t mc tiu tng i bay, t 10 chic A320 trong nm 2014. Th trng Hng Khng gi r cn rt nhiu tim nng pht trin ti Vit Nam, v JPA c nhiu c hi gia tng th phn.

Ch tiu n v Thc hin 2013 So vi 2012S chuyn chuyn 12,511 9.80%

Khch vn chuyn khch 2,011,972 11.90%

RPK khch km 1,876,444,309 8.40%

ASK khch km 2,090,975,400 9.50%

H s s dng gh % 89.70% -0.90%

Hng ha tn 9,017 0.20%

Cambodia Angkor Air (K6)Cambodia Angkor Air l hng hng khng ln nht Campuchia v l hng hng khng quc gia ln th 9 trong khu vc. Tnh n thi im hin ti K6 chim v tr c quyn trong th trng ni a ca Campuchia vi th phn 100% v th phn

quc t i/n Campuchia t 16.3%. Hin Cambodia Angkor Air ang khai thc thng l 2 tuyn bay ni a v 7 tuyn ng bay quc t n Vit Nam, Thi Lan v Trung Quc.

Ph lc 01 Thnh vin tiu biu


Trong giai on 2009 - 2012, hot ng kinh doanh ca Cambodia Angkor Air u c li vi bin li nhun gp quanh mc 14%. Nm 2013 l giai on u khai thc nhng ng bay mi nn h s s dng gh cha cao, ng thi tnh hnh hnh chnh tr bt n ti Thi Lan v hot ng bay chuyn c b nh hng. Do , mc d nng lc vn ti quc t ca K6 tng hn 70%yoy, khin doanh thu nm 2013 tng n 77.38%yoy, t 69.36 triu USD, nhng nhun gp ghi nhn m 1.48 triu USD.

K6 c thnh lp thng 7 nm 2009 gia Vietnam Airlines, Chnh ph Hong gia v cc nh u t Campuchia, trong Vietnam Airlines c t l quyn biu quyt nm gi 49%

Doanh thu thun K6 (triu USD)

7.89

30.50

33.23

40.14

69.36

0 20 40 60 80

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Chng ti nh gi K6 c trin vng tng trng tt trong cc nm ti nh sc ht du lch v u t ca th trng Cambodia l rt ln.

Cty TNHH MTV Xng Du Hng Khng Vit Nam (Vinapco)Vinapco l nh cung cp nhin liu hng khng Jet A1 ti Vit Nam vi th phn chim trn 90%. ng thi VINAPCO l n v duy nht cung ng nhin liu ti tt c cc sn bay dn dng trn ton lnh th Vit Nam c nhu cu s dng nhin liu hng khng. Hin VINAPCO ang thc hin hp ng cung cp nhin liu cho 30 hng hng khng quc t v 4 hng hng khng ni a bao gm Vietnam Airlines, Jetstar Pacific, Vasco v Vietjet Air.

Trong giai on 2009 2013, tc tng trng bnh qun ca Doanh thu thun t CAGR 36.32% do nhu cu nhin liu hng khng tng cao cng vi s tng trng nhanh ca ngnh Hng khng Vit Nam.

Vinapco c thnh lp trn c s chuyn i t chc ca 3 X nghip: Xng du Ni Bi, Nng v Tn Sn Nht vi tng vn iu l l 400 t ng. Vietnam Airlines nm 100% vn iu l.

Tuy nhin bin li nhun thp v khng n nh do b nh hng bi gi du th gii, trung bnh trong giai on 2009 2013, bin li nhun gp t 1.91%. Nm 2013, VINAPCO t doanh thu 26,311 t ng (+2.52%yoy), LNST t 67 t ng (+9.84%yoy).

Chng ti nh gi Vinapco c trin vng tng trng tt trong cc nm ti do nhu cu nhin liu tng ln cng nhp vi s pht trin ngnh Hng khng Vit Nam.


Doanh thu thun Vinapco (t VND)

7,618

12,736

21,971

25,664

26,311

10,000 20,000 30,000

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Cty TNHH MTV K thut My bay (VAECO)

VAECO l t chc bo dng my bay ln nht Vit Nam vi quy m hn 2000 lao ng, 2 chi nhnh v 7 trung tm bo dng my bay v thit b my bay v 1 trung tm o to ti Vit Nam. Cng ty c ph chun chng ch bo dng VAR-145 ca Cc hng khng Vit Nam v FAR-145 ca Cc hng khng lin bang M. VAECO cung cp dch v bo dng k thut cho Vietnam Airlines v cc hng hng khng quc t v trong nc ti Vit Nam. Trong , Vietnam Airlines l khch hng ln nht ca VAECO, mang li n 86.10% doanh thu cho doanh nghip.

Doanh thu v LNST ca cng ty tng trng u qua cc nm, trong giai on 2010 2013, tng trng doanh thu bnh qun CAGR t 10.21%, tng trng CAGR LNST t 15.12%, bin li nhun thun t trung bnh 4.8%.

Doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu VAECO (t VND)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu thun Li nhun sau thu

Nm 2013, VAECO t doanh thu 1,381 t ng (+18.96%yoy), LNST t 72.83 t ng (+103.02%yoy). Chng ti nh gi VAECO c trin vng tng trng cao v bn vng trong cc nm ti. Nghuyn nhn do nhu cu bo dng, sa cha my bay tng ln khi Vietnam Airlines, Jetstar Pacific v Cambodia Angkor Air u c k hoch m rng i bay giai on 2014 2018.

CTCP Dch v Hng ha Ni Bi (NCTS)NCTS nh hng tr thnh cng ty phc v hng ha chuyn nghip, hng u ti sn bay quc t Ni Bi. Th phn phc v hng ha ca Cng ty nm 2012 t 94% (98% quc t v 92% ni a). Khch hng ch yu bao gm 28 hng hng khng v hn 100 cng ty giao nhn v hng triu lt khch hng l mi nm.


Doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu NCTS (t VND)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu thun Li nhun sau thu

Doanh thu v li nhun tng trng mc cao trong giai on 2009 2013, vi tng trng bnh qun doanh thu CAGR t 32.11% v tng trng bnh qun LNST CAGR 23.61%. Nm 2013, doanh thu ca NCTS tng trng 34.85%yoy t 574.52 t ng, LNST t 247.5 t ng (+40.87%yoy).

Chng ti nh gi NCTS c trin vng tng trng n nh trong cc nm ti. Sn lng hng ha qua ng hng khng ti Ni Bi s tng nh (1) m rng nh ga T2 v (2) cc nh u t ca Nht Bn, Hn Quc u t xy dng, m rng cc khu cng nghip sn xut sn phm in t (Samsung, LG,) ti cc tnh pha Bc.

Cty TNHH Dch V Hng ha Tn Sn Nht (TCS) Dch v ch yu ca TSC l cung cp cc dch v kho qun l hng ha, i l giao nhn hng ha v phc v hng ha. Nm 2013 phc v 193,178 tn hng ha, chim 76% lng hng ha qua

sn bay Tn Sn Nht. Cc khch hng chnh gm Vietnam Airlines (29.14%), Cathay Pacific (10.29%), China Airlines (10.07%), v 32 hng hng khng khc v cng ty giao nhn.

Doanh thu thun nm 2013 t 440.65 t ng (-2.93%yoy) do cnh tranh khc lit dn n sn lng hng ha nm 2013 gim 4.5%yoy. H qu l cng ty tng chit khu, gim gi dch v cung cp gi c cc hng bay ln v k c hp ng di hn.

Doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu TCS (t VND)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu Li nhun sau thu

Chng ti nh gi TCS c trin vng tng trng n nh. Cng ty d kin s tng vn iu l thm 77.27 t ng trong nm 2014, nng tng s vn iu l ln 170.996 t ng. Vic tng vn s gip TCS c nng lc m rng cc mng dch v hnh thnh chui dch v hon chnh ti Sn bay Tn Sn Nht khi m rng.


Cng ty TNHH MTV Sut n Hng khng Vit Nam (VACS)VACS l cng ty cung ng sut n hng khng duy nht ti sn bay quc t Tn Sn Nht. Cng ty ang cung cp sut n cho trn 30 hng hng khng trong v ngoi nc, chim trn 95% th phn cung cp sut n hng khng ti sn bay Tn Sn Nht (hin cng ty ch cha cung cp c sut n cho cc hng quc t c bay qu cnh qua Bangkok).

Doanh thu v li nhun tng trng n nh: giai on 2008-2013, doanh thu v li nhun sau thu ca doanh nghip tng u qua cc nm vi tc tng trng bnh qun hng nm CAGR t ln lt l 8.55% v 4.17%. Nm 2013, VACS t 25.67 triu USD doanh thu (+7.08% y.o.y) v 4.32 triu USD li nhun sau thu (3.92%)

Doanh thu thun v li nhun sau thu VACS (triu USD)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Doanh thu Li nhun sau thu

Chng ti nh gi y l mt trong nhng cng ty con kinh doanh hiu qu nht ca Vietnam Airlines vi bin li nhun bnh qun ROS, ROE v ROA trong giai on 2008-2013 t ln lt l 19%, 49% v 39%. Hn na, n nm 2013, kt thc thi hn hot ng 20 nm ca Lin doanh vi Cng ty sut n Cathay Pacific (CPCS), Vietnam Airlines mua li phn vn gp ca pha nc ngoi v tng t l s hu t 60% ln 100%. Nh , ng gp hng nm t VACS cho Vietnam Airlines s tng ln ng k.


Ph lc 02 Kt qu nh gi n v thnh vin1

1 n v t VND.

T l s hu LNST P/E P/B

Gi tr theo P/E

Gi tr theo P/B

CT TNHH MTV Sut n Hng khng Vit Nam 100% 91 12 1.0 1.090 CT TNHH Dch v Hng ha Tn Sn Nht (TCS) 55% 132 12 1.0 870 CTCP Sut n Hng khng Ni Bi (NCS) 60% 32 12 1.0 228 CTCP Dch v hng ha Ni Bi (NCTS) 55% 248 12 1.0 1.637 CT TNHH Giao nhn hng ha (Vinako) 65% 15 12 1.0 114 CT TNHH Phn phi ton cu Abacus Vit Nam 90% 3 12 1.0 31 CTCP In Hng khng (AVIPRINT) 51% 3 12 1.0 18 CTCP Cung ng XNK Lao ng Hng khng (ALSIMEXCO)

51% 1 12 1.0 8

CTCP Dch v hng khng sn bay Ni Bi (NASCO) 51% 37 12 1.0 225 CTCP Cng trnh Hng khng (AVICON) 65% 2 12 1.0 18 CT TNHH Dch v Giao nhn hng ha Tn Sn Nht (TECS)

51% 23 12 1.0 141

CT TNHH MTV Xng du Hng khng (Vinapco) 100% 67 12 1.0 807 CTCP o to bay Vit (VFT) 52% 6 12 1.0 34 CT TNHH MTV K thut my bay (VAECO) 100% 73 12 1.0 1.110 CTCP Tin hc Vin thng Hng khng (AITS) 53% 4 12 1.0 34

CTCP Cung ng dch v Hng khng (AIRSERCO) 53% 0 12 1.0 1 CTCP Hng khng Jetstar Pacific Airlines (JPA) 68% (274) 12 1.0 - Hng Hng khng Cambodia Angkor Air (K6) 49% (142) 12 1.0 986 CTCP Cho thu my bay Vit Nam 32% 12 1.0 428

CTCP Bo him Hng khng 20% 12 1.0 100 CTCP Khch sn Hng khng 44% 12 1.0 42 CTCP XNK Hng khng (Arimex) 41% 12 1.0 11 CTCP Dch v Hng khng Sn bay Nng 36% 12 1.0 11 CTCP Nha cao cp Hng khng 30% 12 1.0 5 CTCP Vn ti t Hng khng 49% 12 1.0 3 CTCP T vn Xy dng v Dch v Hng khng 43% 12 1.0 3 Tng cng 5.222 2.733


Ph lc 03 Cc ch tiu ti chnh Cng ty m

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Ch tiu v kh nng thanh ton

H s thanh ton ngn hn 0.66 0.74 0.64 0.45 0.48 H s thanh ton nhanh 0.55 0.67 0.60 0.42 0.45 Kh nng thanh ton tc thi 0.18 0.21 0.15 0.13 0.08

Ch tiu v c cu vn Ti sn Ngn hn/ Tng ti sn 0.16 0.24 0.18 0.13 0.15 Ti sn Di hn/ Tng ti sn 0.84 0.76 0.82 0.87 0.85 H s N/ Tng ti sn 0.79 0.78 0.83 0.83 0.83 Tng vay / TTS 0.57 0.64 0.66 0.64 H s N/ Vn ch s hu 3.76 3.56 4.87 4.97 4.92

N ngn hn/TTS 0.25 0.32 0.28 0.30 0.30 N di hn/TTS 0.54 0.46 0.55 0.54 0.53

Ch tiu v nng lc hot ng Vng quay hng tn kho 62.48 91.53 119.55 135.57 Vng quay cc khon phi thu 19.22 19.93 21.83 24.31 Vng quay cc khon phi tr 7.77 7.74 7.30 6.35S ngy hng tn kho 5.84 3.99 3.05 2.69S ngy khon phi thu 18.99 18.32 16.72 15.02S ngy khon phi tr 46.99 47.13 50.00 57.52

Ch tiu v kh nng sinh li H s li nhun sau thu/Doanh thu thun (%) 0.89% 0.08% 0.28% 0.28% H s li nhun sau thu/Vn ch s hu (%) 3.72% 0.44% 1.49% 1.47% H s li nhun sau thu/Tng ti sn 0.82% 0.08% 0.25% 0.25% H s li nhun t HKD/Doanh thu thun -0.46% -1.65% -1.31% -0.30%

M hnh DuPont (5 nhn t)H s Tng ti sn/Vn ch s hu 4.76 4.56 5.87 5.97 5.92H s Doanh thu/Tng ti sn 0.72 0.92 0.92 0.89 0.88H s Li trc thu, li sut/Doanh thu 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02H s li trc thu/Li trc thu, li sut 0.16 0.31 0.04 0.13 0.12H s li rng/Li trc thu 1.00 0.96 1.00 1.00 1.00

ROE 1.99% 3.72% 0.44% 1.49% 1.47%


Ph lc 04 So snh mc bi EV/EBITDAR ca cc hng hng khng trong khu vc

EV/EBITDAR 2013 2014 2015 2016

Singapore Airlines 3.27 2.89 2.59 2.36Garuda Indonesia 1.93 1.90 1.73 1.42China Southern 7.01 6.83 6.26 5.69China Eastern 7.31 6.69 6.08 5.41Air China 9.95 7.60 6.82 6.18Malaysia 24.94 24.80 12.08 9.21Thai Airway 4.38 7.53 5.19 4.66

Cathay Pacific 8.40 7.28 6.30 5.70

Trung bnh 8.40 8.19 5.88 5.08


Ph lc 05 D bo kt qu kinh doanh ca Cng ty m1

1 n v: t VND

Bng cn i k ton 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F

Tng ti sn 55,500 59,336 70,082 88,796 113,171Ti sn ngn hn 7,416 8,612 14,583 16,108 23,148

Tin v cc khon tng ng tin 2,148 1,440 6,769 6,911 11,904Cc khon u t ti chnh ngn hn - 58 - - -Cc khon phi thu ngn hn 4,791 6,520 7,168 8,445 10,349Hng tn kho 330 362 392 463 547Ti sn ngn hn khc 147 232 254 289 348

Ti sn di hn 48,084 50,725 55,499 72,688 90,023Cc khon phi thu di hn 3,464 5,143 5,623 6,414 7,720Ti sn c nh 34,234 35,694 38,366 54,081 68,133Cc khon u t ti chnh di hn 4,380 3,584 3,958 4,332 4,706Ti sn di hn khc 6,005 6,304 7,553 7,862 9,464

N phi tr 46,206 49,320 55,298 73,643 92,228N ngn hn 16,453 17,830 19,735 24,369 29,964

Vay v n ngn hn 6,862 6,653 7,516 10,431 13,185Phi tr cho ngi bn 6,259 8,536 9,410 10,952 13,092Ngi mua tr tin trc 1 120 132 150 181Thu v cc khon phi np Nh nc 32 32 35 40 48Phi tr ngi lao ng 566 484 529 604 727Chi ph phi tr 2,536 1,692 1,774 1,804 2,263Cc khon phi tr, phi np khc 153 90 98 112 135Qu khen thng phc li 44 222 242 276 333

N di hn 29,754 31,490 35,562 49,274 62,264Vay v n di hn 29,654 31,189 35,233 48,898 61,812Phi tr di hn khc 100 301 329 375 451

D phng phi tr di hn 0 1 1 1 1

Vn ch s hu 9,293 10,017 14,784 15,153 20,944Vn ch s hu 9,292 10,016 14,784 15,153 20,943

Vn u t ca ch s hu 8,716 9,062 14,102 14,102 18,642Qu u t pht trin 87 87 101 131 236Qu d phng ti chnh 362 434 447 478 582Li nhun sau thu cha phn phi 127 - 134 442 1,484Qu khc thuc vn ch s hu - 91 - - -Ngun vn u t XDCB - 343 - - -Ngun kinh ph v qu khc 1 1 1 1 1

TNG NGUN VN 55,500 59,336 70,082 88,796 113,171


Bo co kt qu kinh doanh 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016FDoanh thu thun v bn hng v cung cp dch v 49,142 52,460 57,357 65,423 78,752Gi vn hng bn 45,008 46,912 49,319 55,918 66,031Li nhun gp v bn hng v cung cp dch v 4,134 5,548 8,038 9,505 12,722Doanh thu hot ng ti chnh 1,149 1,205 881 917 943Chi ph ti chnh 2,069 2,528 3,226 3,407 4,219 Trong : Chi ph li vay 947 1,093 1,782 2,108 2,662Chi ph bn hng 2,530 3,272 3,725 4,249 5,114Chi ph qun l doanh nghip 1,329 1,110 1,213 1,384 1,666Li nhun (l) thun t hot ng kinh doanh (645) (157) 754 1,382 2,666Thu nhp khc 822 352 - - -Chi ph khc 38 38 486 767 582Li nhun (l) khc 783 315 (486) (767) (582)Li nhun t cng ty lin kt - - - - -

LI NHUN (L) SAU THU TNDN 138 147 269 615 2,084

Bo co lu chuyn tin t 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016FLu chuyn tin t hot ng kinh doanh

Li nhun trc thu 138 158 269 615 2,084 iu chnh cho cc khonKhu hao TSC 2,796 3,419 3,297 4,124 4,919 Cc khon d phng 379 139 18 15 38 Li, l cc khon chnh lch t gi hi oi cha thc hin 98 350 95 282 519 (Li), l hot ng u t (608) (661) - - - Chi ph li vay 947 1,093 1,782 2,108 2,662

Li nhun t hot ng kinh doanh trc thay i vn lu ng

3,751 4,497 5,460 7,143 10,222

Tng/gim cc khon phi thu ngn hn 372 (657) (648) (1,277) (1,904)Tng/gim cc khon tn kho 48 (8) (30) (71) (83)Tng/gim chi ph tr trc 181 273 (8) (13) (21)Tng/gim cc khon phi tr ngn hn (tr li vay, thu TNDN)

678 1,667 1,040 1,714 2,832

Tin li vay tr (1,354) (1,244) (1,782) (2,108) (2,662)Thu TNDN np - (117) - - - Tin thu khc t hot ng SXKD 3,372 1,602 - - -


Bo co lu chuyn tin t 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016FTin chi khc t hot ng kinh doanh (1,986) (3,514) - - -

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng kinh doanh 5,061 2,499 4,033 5,388 8,383

Lu chuyn tin t hot ng u tTin chi mua sm, xy dng TSC v cc ti sn di hn khc

(10,484) (5,203) (6,593) (20,808) (20,573)

Tin thu thanh l, nhng bn TSC v cc ti sn di hn khc

4 1 - - -

Tin thu hi cho vay, bn li cc cng c n - 83 - - -

Tin thu hi u t gp vn 40 152 - - - Tin chi u t gp vn (385) (223) (374) (374) (374)Tin thu li vay, c tc v li nhun c chia 486 662 881 917 943

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng u t (10,340) (4,529) (6,087) (20,265) (20,003)

Lu chuyn tin t hot ng ti chnhTin thu t pht hnh c phiu, nhn vn gp ca ch s hu

- 346 5,040 - 4,540

Tin vay ngn hn nhn c chi tr 14,477 8,092 (1,593) 939 (5)C tc, li nhun tr cho ch s hu - - (107) (246) (834)Tin vay di hn nhn c chi tr( Chi tr n gc vay) (5,977) (3,653) 4,044 13,665 12,913 Tin chi tr n thu ti chnh (3,058) (3,477) - - -

Lu chuyn tin thun t hot ng ti chnh 5,441 1,308 7,383 14,358 16,614

Lu chuyn tin thun trong nm 162 (721) 5,329 (518) 4,994 Tin v tng ng tin u nm 1,971 2,148 1,440 7,429 6,911 nh hng ca thay i t gi hi oi quy i ngoi t 15 13 - - -

TIN V TNG NG TIN CUI NM 2,148 1,440 6,769 6,911 11,904


Gii thiu v BSC

Cng ty C phn Chng khon Ngn hng u t v Pht trin Vit Nam (BSC) c thnh lp v vinh d tr thnh Cng ty chng khon u tin trong ngnh ngn hng tham gia kinh doanh trong lnh vc chng khon, ng thi l mt trong hai Cng ty chng khon u tin ti Vit Nam.

Tri qua gn 15 nm pht trin, BSC t c nhiu thnh tu to ln, tr thnh Cng ty ng trong top 03 th trng Vit Nam v t vn pht hnh tri phiu doanh nghip; l Cng ty dn u th trng v th phn mi gii tri phiu nm 2013, v nm Top 10 nh mi gii c phiu nm 2013 ti hai sn giao dch. Nm trong c cu khch hng ca BSC l nhiu doanh nghip c thng hiu ln, uy tn, ng vai tr u tu trong nn kinh t Vit Nam nh Vietnam Airlines, Vinacomin, Vinatex

Nhim v ca BSC l kt ni nh u t vi nhng sn phm u t ph hp nht. Chng ti lun ng hnh cng cc bn i ti thnh cng.

Lin hBSC Tr s chnh Tng 10, 11 Thp BIDV35 Hng Vi Hon Kim H NiTel: 84 4 39352722Fax: 84 4 22200669Website: www.bsc.com.vn

Chi nhnh BSC H Ch MinhTng 9 146 Nguyn Cng TrQun 1, Tp. H Ch MinhTel: 84 8 3 8218885Fax: 84 8 3 8218510Facebook: www.facebook.com/BIDVSecurities

Trn Thng Long Gim c Khi Phn tch [email protected] (+84) 43935 2722 ext. 118

L Th Hi ng Gim c Khi Mi gii [email protected] (+84) 43935 2722 ext. 155


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