14 may 2021 results review 4qfy21 lupin

14 May 2021 Results Review 4QFY21

Lupin

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Positives in the price Lupin’s 4Q sales/EBITDA was ~5%/9% below our estimates, largely on

account of subdued US (+4% QoQ, weak flu season offset Albuterol

contribution) and weak API business (-22% YoY). EBITDA margin at 18.7%

remained flat QoQ. Management guided for double-digit growth in key

markets (India and US) in FY22 and EBITDA margin improvement to 21-22%

by FY23 (vs. 17.2% in FY21). We continue to remain positive on Lupin’s ability

to execute and monetise its complex pipeline in the US (inhalers and complex

injectables). We factor in ~460bps margin improvement (to 21.8%) and ~40%

earnings CAGR over FY21-23e, driven by operating leverage. However, at

31x/23x FY22/23 EPS, the positives appear priced in. We tweak our estimates

by -3%/+4% for FY22/23e and revise the TP to INR1,220. Downgrade to ADD.

Soft quarter, lower tax boosted PAT: Revenue declined by 2% to INR37.8bn

as healthy growth in India and growth markets (+8% YoY) offset the

subdued performance in the US (+4% QoQ) and API business (-22% YoY,

lower antibiotic volumes). EBITDA margin at 18.7% remained flat QoQ as

savings in staff cost (-98bps QoQ, lower incentives, one off) were offset by

higher other expenses (+70bps QoQ) and R&D (+30bps QoQ). Adj. PAT at

INR4.6bn (+50% YoY) was boosted by lower tax rate of 10%.

US pipeline provides decent growth visibility: Among the key existing

products, Albuterol ramp-up (8%+ Gx share) has been slower than our

expectation; however, Lupin continues to aim for 20% market share over the

next few quarters. Levothyroxine has seen improvement in market share

(~19% vs. 12% in FY20). New product pipeline – gBrovana (FY22), gSpiriva

(FY23), gSuprep (FTF, USD200mn, FY23) and possibly gDulera (FY23) -

provide strong growth visibility in the near to medium term. We forecast

15% CAGR over FY21-23e, led by ramp-up in existing products, new

launches, and monetisation of inhalation pipeline.

Key call takeaways: (a) Guidance: EBITDA margin of ~21-22% by FY23, US

– targets USD1bn sales in two years, ETR – ~27-28% in FY22/23; (b) key

product updates in EU – gFostair - expect launch in coming months,

bEnbrel – ramp-up to be gradual; (c) US pipeline – gBrovana to be launched

in CY21, Peg-filgrastim - filed, awaiting FDA inspection, to launch in 15-18

months, gSpiriva - under priority review, expected to be launched in FY23,

litigation is ongoing; (d) USFDA inspection – draft guidelines to conduct

remote inspection is in place; however, there is no clarity on timelines.

Downgrade to ADD, risks: We tweak our estimates by -3%/+4% for

FY22/23e to account for lower US sales and lower tax rate and revise the TP

to INR1,220, based on 23x FY23e EPS. At 31x/23x FY22/23 EPS, the positives

appear priced in. Downgrade to ADD. Key risks: delay in key approvals,

delay in resolution of plants, lower-than-expected margin expansion. Financial Summary

Q4

FY21

Q4

FY20

YoY

(%)

Q3

FY21

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY21 FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 37,831 38,457 -1.6 39,474 -4.2 1,52,307 1,50,934 1,67,688 1,87,295

EBITDA 7,076 5,253 34.7 7,367 -4.0 22,107 25,893 32,426 40,742

EBITDA Margin 18.7 13.7 504 bps 18.7 4 bps 14.5 17.2 19.3 21.8

APAT 4,604 3,065 50.2 3,963 16.2 3,526 12,920 17,541 24,110

Adj. EPS (INR) 10.1 6.8 50.1 8.7 16.1 7.8 28.5 38.7 53.1

P/E (x)

155.7 42.5 31.3 22.8

EV/ EBITDA (x)

26.6 22.2 17.4 13.5

RoACE (%)

5.9 7.5 10.0 12.5

Source: Company, HSIE Research

ADD

CMP(as on 12 May 2021) INR 1,211

Target Price INR 1,220

NIFTY 14,697

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY ADD

Price Target INR 1,175 INR 1,220

EPS % FY22E FY23E

-3% +4%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code LPC IN

No. of Shares (mn) 454

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 550/7,391

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 3,370

52 Week high / low INR 1,247/827

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 15.1 35.4 42.3

Relative (%) 20.7 23.1 (12.9)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Mar-21 Dec-20

Promoters 46.86 46.88

FIs & Local MFs 22.30 21.08

FPIs 17.87 18.97

Public & Others 12.97 13.07

Pledged Shares 0.00 0.00

Source : BSE

Bansi Desai, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7341

Karan Vora

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7359

Page | 2

Lupin: Results Review 4QFY21

Quarterly Financial Snapshot

INR mn 4QFY21 4QFY20 YoY (%) 3QFY21 QoQ (%) FY21 FY20

Net Sales 37,831 38,457 (1.6) 39,474 (4.2) 1,50,934 1,52,307

EBITDA 7,076 5,253 34.7 7,367 (4.0) 25,893 22,107

Other income 582 2,086 (72.1) 212 175.0 1,363 6,279

Depreciation 2,157 2,143 0.7 2,443 (11.7) 8,874 9,702

Interest 318 1,074 (70.3) 309 3.0 1,406 3,630

PBT 5,182 4,123 25.7 4,827 7.4 16,055 8,834

Tax 540 1,051 (48.6) 835 (35.3) 4,485 11,571

Minority 38 7 473.1 29 31.1 101 -43

Adjusted PAT 4,604 3,065 50.2 3,963 16.2 12,920 3,526

Extra ordinary inc/ (exp) 0 -831 NM 280 NM 920 6,220

Reported PAT 4,604 3,896 18.2 4,383 5.1 11,469 -2,694

Source: Company, HSIE Research, NM – Not meaningful

Margin Analysis

Particulars Q4FY21 Q4FY20 YoY

(bps) Q3FY21

QoQ

(bps) FY21 FY20

Gross Margins 65.2 63.5 171 65.2 1 64.5 64.3

Employee Exp % Net Sales 16.9 19.9 (293) 17.9 (98) 18.7 19.6

R&D Expenses % Net Sales 9.1 9.0 11 8.8 25 9.5 10.2

Other Expenses % Net Sales 20.5 21.0 (51) 19.8 70 19.1 20.0

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.7 13.7 504 18.7 4 17.2 14.5

Tax Rate (%) 10.4 25.5 (1,506) 17.3 (688) 26.4 76.9

APAT Margin (%) 12.2 8.0 420 10.0 213 8.1 2.3


Segmental Quarterly Performance

INR mn Q4FY21 Q4FY20 YoY (%) Q3FY21 QoQ (%) FY21 FY20

India 12,866 11,920 7.9 13,669 -5.9 52,712 51,385

US 14,952 15,791 -5.3 14,424 3.7 55,520 58,212

Growth markets 3,033 2,800 8.3 3,314 -8.5 11,964 6,069

EMEA 3,749 3,650 2.7 3,272 14.6 12,781 12,364

ROW 437 463 -5.6 1,056 -58.6 2,470 2,815

Formulations 35,037 34,624 1.2 35,735 -2.0 1,35,447 1,36,988

API 2,556 3,286 -22.2 3,438 -25.7 13,823 12,999

Other operating income 238 547 -56.5 301 -20.7 1,663 2,320

Total 37,831 38,457 -1.6 39,474 -4.2 1,50,933 1,52,307


Downgrade to ADD, revise TP to INR1,220

We factor in ~460bps margin improvement (to 21.8%) and ~40% earnings CAGR over

FY21-23e, driven by operating leverage. We tweak our estimates by -3%/+4% for

FY22/23e to account for lower US sales and lower tax rate and revise the TP to

INR1,220, based on 23x FY23e EPS. At 31x/23x FY22/23 EPS, the positives appear

priced in. Downgrade to ADD.

Change in Estimates

Change in Estimates FY22 Old FY22 Revised Change FY23 Old FY23 Revised Change

Revenues 1,75,634 1,67,688 -5% 1,93,390 1,87,295 -3%

EPS 39.8 38.7 -3% 51.1 53.1 4%


Revenue declined by ~2%

YoY, mainly on account of

weak US and API

Staff cost declined (-98bps

QoQ) due to one-time

savings on account of

lower incentives. Guides

for sub-18% levels, going

forward

R&D cost was stable at

~9% of sales (likely to

come down as % of sales)

EBITDA margin come at

18.7% (flat QoQ, +504bps

YoY) as one-time savings

in staff costs (-98bps QoQ,

-293bps QoQ) offset

increase in other expenses

(+70bps QoQ, -51bps YoY)

ETR was low at ~10% - as

US, Brazil subsidiaries

reported profits, excess

provisions reversed;

Guides for ETR of 27-28%

for FY22/23.

India – underperformed

IPM in acute segments

(3.9% vs. 4.3%),

outperformed in the

chronic space (10%+ vs.

8.4%)

US (+4% QoQ), weak flu

season led to lower sales

(~USD36mn) compared to

Q4FY20

API – weak antibiotic

sales led to YoY decline

RoW – Higher growth of

low margin business in

Brazil and Australia

Page | 3


Financials Income Statement Year to March (INR mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Revenues 1,42,085 1,74,940 1,58,040 1,44,543 1,52,307 1,50,934 1,67,688 1,87,295

Material Cost 55,747 65,978 67,081 62,624 68,114 66,570 72,624 78,851

Gross Margins (%) 60.8 62.3 57.6 56.7 55.3 55.9 56.7 57.9

Personnel cost 21,077 28,495 28,647 27,702 29,868 28,259 29,345 32,303

Selling expenses 11,531 13,297 9,737 10,969 11,506 10,790 11,890 12,642

Administrative expenses 16,196 22,242 21,101 19,744 20,711 19,422 21,403 22,756

EBITDA 37,534 44,928 31,474 23,504 22,107 25,893 32,426 40,742

EBITDA Margins (%) 26.4 25.7 19.9 16.3 14.5 17.2 19.3 21.8

Depreciation 4,635 9,122 10,859 8,461 9,702 8,874 8,984 9,082

Interest 447 1,525 2,044 3,025 3,630 1,406 1,166 1,046

Other Income 1,877 1,065 1,504 5,433 6,279 1,363 1,890 2,550

PBT before EO items 34,329 35,346 20,075 17,452 15,054 16,975 24,165 33,164

Extra-ordinary (Income) / Exp. - 1,559 12,206 2,455 6,220 920 - -

PBT after EO items 34,329 33,787 7,869 14,997 8,834 16,055 24,165 33,164

Tax 11,535 9,785 5,322 8,879 11,571 4,485 6,525 8,954

PAT 22,794 24,002 2,547 6,117 -2,737 11,570 17,641 24,210

Adjusted Net income 22,707 25,140 14,717 8,521 3,526 12,920 17,541 24,110


Balance Sheet Year to March (INR mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Shareholders’ Funds 1,11,634 1,34,976 1,35,770 1,37,422 1,25,367 1,38,031 1,52,622 1,71,910

Share Capital 901 903 904 905 906 907 907 907

Reserves & Surplus 1,10,733 1,34,073 1,34,865 1,36,517 1,24,461 1,37,124 1,51,715 1,71,003

Secured Loans 3,241 1,908 6,965 4,462 1,756 1,756 1,756 1,756

Unsecured Loans 68,534 77,753 64,463 80,500 62,269 41,282 38,282 35,282

Other Long Term Liabilities 4,777 6,032 5,258 7,296 8,884 7,409 7,409 7,409

Total Loans 71,775 79,661 71,428 84,962 64,025 43,038 40,038 37,038

Deferred tax liabilities 3,267 3,949 2,855 2,883 1,995 2,298 2,298 2,298

Minority Interest 321 345 401 469 445 550 650 750

Total Liabilities 1,91,773 2,24,963 2,15,712 2,33,031 2,00,716 1,91,325 2,03,017 2,19,404

Fixed Assets 64,515 87,229 79,135 87,064 60,866 59,183 60,299 57,317

C-WIP 27,024 21,331 25,982 16,397 9,396 10,663 10,663 10,663

Investments 143 220 267 1,856 361 781 781 781

Deferred Tax Asset 3,359 5,076 7,166 7,340 1,743 1,802 1,802 1,802

Goodwill on Consolidation 22,654 23,100 24,485 23,803 18,515 19,624 19,624 19,624

Current Investments 20 21,141 2,349 21,099 23,383 23,768 23,768 23,768

Inventories 32,737 36,423 36,625 38,368 34,569 40,920 38,646 43,192

Sundry Debtors 45,488 43,073 51,964 51,498 54,459 44,743 52,286 58,436

Cash & Bank Balance 8,218 6,994 14,080 9,872 24,543 17,425 26,777 38,979

Loans & Advances 18,061 17,180 15,682 14,936 17,261 12,759 13,616 14,559

Other Current Assets 4,030 4,305 5,319 7,262 4,743 4,436 4,436 4,436

Current Assets 1,08,553 1,29,117 1,26,018 1,43,033 1,58,957 1,44,051 1,59,529 1,83,370

Current Liabilities 28,288 31,413 35,916 33,567 34,600 32,272 37,241 41,387

Provisions 6,187 9,697 11,425 12,895 14,523 12,507 12,440 12,765

Net Current Assets 74,078 88,007 78,677 96,571 1,09,835 99,273 1,09,848 1,29,218

Total Assets 1,91,773 2,24,963 2,15,712 2,33,031 2,00,716 1,91,325 2,03,017 2,19,404


Page | 4


Cash Flows Year to March (INR mn) FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

PBT 33,288 35,431 5,468 15,172 8,768 16,765 24,165 33,164

Depreciation and Amortisation 4,871 9,122 10,859 10,850 11,596 8,874 8,984 9,082

Interest and Finance Charges 595 1,525 2,044 3,078 3,630 1,406 1,166 1,046

Change in Working Capital -23,089 3,358 -8,992 -5,132 -9,592 -1,359 -1,224 -7,167

Direct Taxes Paid -11,701 -11,490 -5,584 -9,394 -5,112 -7,155 -6,525 -8,954

Operating Cash Flows 4,401 39,529 30,956 14,112 3,627 17,877 26,567 27,170

Change in Fixed Assets -57,815 -26,007 -14,898 -9,599 -6,713 -6,714 -10,100 -6,100

Change in Investments 13 121 19,189 -24,268 564 -6,079 - -

Investing Cash Flows -69,617 -25,287 4,699 -32,825 11,070 -12,396 -10,100 -6,100

Proceeds/repayment of borrowings 62,081 9,479 -8,953 12,922 -1,504 -13,677 -3,000 -3,000

Issue of Equity Shares 2 2 1 1 1 2 - -

Interest paid -585 -1,507 -2,040 -2,804 -3,562 -1,318 -1,166 -1,046

Dividend Paid -4,055 -4,066 -4,073 -2,713 -2,730 -2,723 -2,949 -4,822

Financing Cash Flows 58,364 4,332 -14,921 7,441 -8,906 -18,853 -7,115 -8,868

Net Change in Cash -6,852 18,574 20,733 -11,272 5,791 -13,371 9,352 12,202

Opening cash balance 20,951 7,802 6,875 14,164 5,441 22,293 17,425 26,777

Closing cash balance 16,028 26,376 27,608 2,893 11,231 8,922 26,777 38,979


Key Ratios Year to March FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY22E

PROFITABILITY (%)

GPM 63.0 63.6 58.5 58.1 56.1 56.5 57.3 58.5

EBITDA Margin 26.4 25.7 19.9 16.3 14.5 17.2 19.3 21.8

APAT Margin 16.6 14.7 9.5 6.0 2.4 8.7 10.6 13.0

RoAE 20.3 18.6 10.8 6.2 2.8 9.4 11.5 14.0

RoIC (or Core RoCE) 15.5 13.0 7.3 2.9 4.0 7.2 9.7 12.7

RoACE 12.0 11.9 7.5 4.3 6.1 7.1 9.1 11.4

EFFICIENCY

Tax Rate (%) 33.6 27.7 26.5 50.9 76.9 26.4 27.0 27.0

Fixed Asset Turnover (x) 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3

Inventory (days) 87 78 86 99 79 79 85 85

Debtors (days) 121 92 122 133 125 125 115 115

Other Current Assets (days) 11 9 12 19 12 11 10 9

Payables (days) 53 55 60 65 56 56 55 55

Other Current Liab & Provns (days) 35 26 49 53 105 80 74 69

Cash Conversion Cycle (days) 155 114 147 168 148 148 145 145

Debt/EBITDA (x) 1.7 1.6 1.8 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 -0.0

Net D/E (x) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.0

Interest Coverage (x) 73.6 23.5 10.1 5.0 3.4 12.1 20.1 30.3

PER SHARE DATA (INR)

EPS 50.2 55.5 32.5 18.8 7.8 28.5 38.7 53.1

Dividend 9.0 9.0 9.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.5 10.6

Book Value 246.9 298.0 299.5 303.1 276.6 304.2 336.4 378.9

VALUATION

P/E (x) 24.1 21.8 37.3 64.4 155.7 42.5 31.3 22.8

P/BV (x) 4.9 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 16.2 13.8 19.2 26.5 26.6 22.2 17.4 13.5

EV/Revenues (x) 4.3 3.5 3.8 4.3 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.1

OCF/EV (%) -0.6 6.6 4.9 2.3 1.4 3.0 4.7 5.0

FCF/EV (%) -10.2 2.4 0.3 1.1 1.4 2.0 2.9 3.8

FCFE/Mkt Cap (%) 0.1 4.7 -0.9 4.2 1.8 -0.2 2.7 3.5

Dividend Yield (%) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9


Page | 5


Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Date CMP Reco Target

30-May-20 870 ADD 920

28-Jul-20 841 ADD 920

10-Aug-20 880 BUY 980

29-Sep-20 1,005 BUY 1,185

6-Nov-20 934 BUY 1,120

14-Jan-21 1,067 BUY 1,280

30-Jan-21 1,008 BUY 1,175

14-May-21 1,211 ADD 1,220

From 2nd March 2020, we have moved to new rating system

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY

300

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Lupin TP

Page | 6


Disclosure:

We, Bansi Desai, CFA and Karan Vora, CA, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research

report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. HSL has no material adverse disciplinary history as on the date of publication of this

report. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this

report.

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the date of publication of the Research Report. Further Research Analyst or his relative or HDFC Securities Ltd. or its associate does not have any material

conflict of interest.

Any holding in stock –No

HDFC Securities Limited (HSL) is a SEBI Registered Research Analyst having registration no. INH000002475.

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14 may 2021 results review 4qfy21 lupin

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