13 spatial panel 113_spatial_panel_1.key author: luc created date: 5/14/2017 9:20:28 am
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Copyright © 2017 by Luc Anselin, All Rights Reserved
Luc Anselin
Spatial Regression13. Spatial Panels (1)
http://spatial.uchicago.edu
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Copyright © 2017 by Luc Anselin, All Rights Reserved
• basic concepts
• dynamic panels
• pooled spatial panels
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Copyright © 2017 by Luc Anselin, All Rights Reserved
Basic Concepts
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Data Structures
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• Two-Dimensional Data
• cross-section/space and time
• observations across space: i = 1, … , N
• observations over time: t = 1, … , T
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• Traditional - Focus on Time Dimension
• N time series with T observations each
• short time series
• focus on individual heterogeneity
• long time series
• focus on cross-sectional correlation (SUR, VAR)
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• Stacking of Data
• “vertical” slices - side by side
• yit, with t = 1, ..., T for each i
• y11, y12, ... , y1T | ... | yN1, yN2, ..., yNT
• iteration: for each i over all t
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• Non-Traditional Data Organization
• spatial approach is to consider T cross-sections of size N
• one cross-section for each time period
• large N and small T
• focus on spatial specifications
• large N and large T
• many possibilities, focus on either cross-sectional dependence or time dependence, or both
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• Stacking of Data
• cross-sections stacked on top of each other
• horizontal slices
• yit with i = 1, …, N for each t
• y11,..., yN1 | ... | y1T, ..., yNT
• iteration: for each t over all i
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spatial panel data setup
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• Balanced vs Unbalanced Panel
• balanced
• same i in each cross-section
• Nt = N
• census tracts/counties over time
• unbalanced
• different i in each cross-section (or some of the i different)
• N not constant, different Nt
• house sales over time
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• Space-Time Weights
• no space-time distance metric
• how far how fast
• simplification, constant weights by time period
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• Space-Time Separability
• space-time interaction from separate spatial and serial covariance
• separate models for spatial covariance and for temporal covariance
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Model Specifications
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• Heterogeneity and Dependence
• cross-sectional heterogeneity vs temporal heterogeneity
• cross-sectional dependence vs temporal dependence
• many combinations
• identification problems
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• Homogeneity
• classic pooled cross-section time series
• yi,t = Xi,tβ + εi,t
• same parameters and functional form for all locations and all times
• typically too rigid, but useful point of departure
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• Heterogeneity
• extreme heterogeneity
• yit = Xitβit + εit
• incidental parameter problem
• not operational in classical paradigm
• all coefficients have a distribution in Bayesian paradigm
• hyperparameters
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• Temporal vs Cross-Sectional Heterogeneity
• classic approach focus on individual heterogeneity (and time dependence)
• unobserved heterogeneity
• spatial approach focus on temporal heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence
• fixed or random effects approach
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• Individual Heterogeneity - Fixed Effects
• separate intercept for each i
• spatial fixed effects
• yi,t = αi + Xi,tβ + εi,t
• matrix notation - for each cross-section t
• yt = α + Xtβ + εt
• y = (ιT ⊗ α) + Xβ + ε
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• Temporal Heterogeneity - Fixed Effects
• separate intercept for each t
• period-specific indicator variables
• yi,t = αt + Xi,tβ + εi,t
• matrix notation - for each cross-section t
• yt = αtιN + Xtβ + εt
• y = (α ⊗ ιN) + Xβ + ε
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• Individual Heterogeneity - Random Effects
• individual effect as a random variable
• yi,t = μi + Xi,tβ + νi,t
• μi random, becomes part of error term
• εi,t = μi + νit
• matrix notation - for each cross-section t
• εt = μ + νt , μ as a Nx1 random vector
• ε = (ιT ⊗ IN)μ
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• Temporal Heterogeneity - Random Effects
• time effect as a random variable
• yi,t = δt + Xi,tβ + νi,t
• δt random, becomes part of error term
• εi,t = δt + νit
• temporal random effect creates cross-sectional equi-correlation
• E[εi,tεj,t] = σ2δ
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Asymptotics
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• Relative Size of N and T
• which of N or T (or both) goes to the limit
• if both go to the limit, what is their ratio
• dimension that goes to the limit creates an incidental parameter problem for fixed effects
• with N → ∞ problem for individual heterogeneity
• with T → ∞ problem for temporal heterogeneity
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• Small (fixed) N, large T
• use T → ∞, time domain asymptotics
• parameterize dependence in time
• non-parametric estimate of cross-sectional covariance (classic SUR)
• incidental parameters indexed by t
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• Small (fixed) T, large N
• use N → ∞, spatial asymptotics
• parameterize dependence in space
• non-parametric estimate of serial covariance (spatial SUR)
• incidental parameters indexed by i
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• Large N and Large T
• use both T →∞ and N →∞
• parameterize space-time dependence
• properties depend on relative growth of N vs. T
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Dynamic Panels
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• Taxonomy of Space-Time Dynamics
• pure space recursive
• time-space recursive
• time-space simultaneous
• time-space dynamic
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• Pure Space Recursive
• neighboring locations in a previous period
• spatial lag at previous time period
• spatial diffusion model
• spatial lag endogenous when there is also space-time error dependence, but not otherwise
• identification problem if Xt-1 is included
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• Time-Space Recursive
• own time lag and neighbors in a previous period
• space-time forecasting model
• both lags exogenous unless there is serial or space-time dependence
• identification problems when time lagged X on RHS
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• Time-Space Simultaneous
• own time lag and contemporaneous neighbors
• spatial lag always endogenous
• space-time multiplier from time lag
• identification problems when including WXt
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• Time-Space Dynamics
• time, spatial and space-time lags
• complex identification issues
• Xt-1 included through yt-1
• WXt included through Wyt
• WXt-1 included through Wyt-1
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Pooled Spatial Panels
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• Pooled Cross-Section and Time Series Model
• simple extension of cross-sectional model over T periods
• constant coefficients over time and across space
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• Pooled Model - Spatial Lag
• same weights matrix in each time period
• constant spatial lag coefficient
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• Pooled Model - Spatial Error
• spatial autoregressive error process in each time period
• overall error variance
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• Specification Tests in Pooled Model
• straightforward extension of cross-sectional LM test statistics
• distributed as !2(1)
• LM-Error
• LM-Lag
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• Estimation of Pooled Models
• straightforward extension of pure cross-sectional case
• block-diagonal NT x NT weights matrix
• IV and ML for lag model
• GMM and ML for error model
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Illustration
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pooled OLS with time fixed effects
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pooled ML lag with time fixed effects
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pooled lag with time fixed effects as 2SLS
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pooled ML error with time fixed effects
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pooled error GMM with time fixed effects
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