13 may 2021 hsie results daily hsie results daily

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13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters Contents Results reviews Asian Paints: APNT’s topline delivery (43.5% YoY) exceeded expectations (HSIE: 35%). Growth was all-round. Decorative business clocked 48/46% volume/value growth, underpinned by (1) strong pent-up demand in paints and adjacencies (waterproofing) and 2) pick-up in metros and Tier 1/2 cities. Industrial subsidiaries too delivered a strong recovery. GM crack (down 266bp YoY at 43.2%; in-line) was a foregone conclusion, given runaway RM inflation. Strong cost control cushioned EBITDAM (+128bp at 19.8%; in-line). While the double whammy of the second wave and RM inflation is expected to be a drag in 1Q, demand normalisation trend over the year is unlikely to change meaningfully for a category like paints. Hence, we marginally cut our FY22/23 revenue/EPS estimates (-2% each and -2/1% resp). Our DCF- based TP stands unchanged at INR 2,300/sh, implying 54x FY23 P/E. Maintain REDUCE. Godrej Consumers: GCPL’s 4QFY21 was a mixed bag with in-line revenue but a miss in EBITDA. Consolidated revenue registered 27% YoY growth (HSIE 26%). Domestic revenue/EBITDA grew by 35/10% YoY, while international revenue/EBITDA grew by 20/34%. Domestic/international revenue posted 5/6% 2-year revenue CAGR. Domestic volume growth was at 29%, 4% 2-year CAGR. Cost restoration was quicker than expected in 4Q; hence, EBITDA margin contracted by 108bps YoY to 21% (HSIE 23%) despite a favourable base. EBITDA grew by 21% YoY (flat 2-year CAGR) vs. HSIE 32%. GCPL was on margin expansion trajectory and posted 100bps YoY EBITDA margin expansion during 9MFY21, but missed in 4Q. However, the hiring of the new CEO Sudhir Sitapati (from HUL) was the showstopper. He brings vast experience (22 years) in working with one of the world’s most well run companies - Unilever. Sudhir can introduce various required changes in GCPL management, which are necessary to drive both domestic and international business. Since the past one year, GCPL has renewed its focus on growth and market share gain. Thus, the addition of Sudhir to the team further empowers the growth focus of the company and gives us more confidence on earnings longevity. Hence, we increase our target P/E multiple to 42x (38x earlier) on Mar-23E EPS and drive TP of INR 925. Maintain ADD. Birla Corporation: Birla Corp’s (BCORP) 4QFY21 consolidated revenue/EBITDA/APAT surged 20/8/106% QoQ (26/14/58% YoY) to INR 21.3/3.9/3.1bn respectively, led by robust volume growth and healthy realisation. However, input and fixed cost inflation dragged down unitary EBITDA by 8/11% QoQ/YoY to INR 918/MT. We continue to prefer BCORP in the mid-cap space for its large retail presence in the northern/central markets and ongoing opex reduction. Further, the ongoing expansion will increase its capacity to 21mn MT by FY23, boosting volume growth visibility. We maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of INR 1,451 (8.5x Mar’23E consolidated EBITDA). HSIE Research Team [email protected]

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Page 1: 13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily

13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily

HSIE Results Daily

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Contents

Results reviews

Asian Paints: APNT’s topline delivery (43.5% YoY) exceeded expectations

(HSIE: 35%). Growth was all-round. Decorative business clocked 48/46%

volume/value growth, underpinned by (1) strong pent-up demand in paints

and adjacencies (waterproofing) and 2) pick-up in metros and Tier 1/2 cities.

Industrial subsidiaries too delivered a strong recovery. GM crack (down

266bp YoY at 43.2%; in-line) was a foregone conclusion, given runaway RM

inflation. Strong cost control cushioned EBITDAM (+128bp at 19.8%; in-line).

While the double whammy of the second wave and RM inflation is expected

to be a drag in 1Q, demand normalisation trend over the year is unlikely to

change meaningfully for a category like paints. Hence, we marginally cut

our FY22/23 revenue/EPS estimates (-2% each and -2/1% resp). Our DCF-

based TP stands unchanged at INR 2,300/sh, implying 54x FY23 P/E.

Maintain REDUCE.

Godrej Consumers: GCPL’s 4QFY21 was a mixed bag with in-line revenue

but a miss in EBITDA. Consolidated revenue registered 27% YoY growth

(HSIE 26%). Domestic revenue/EBITDA grew by 35/10% YoY, while

international revenue/EBITDA grew by 20/34%. Domestic/international

revenue posted 5/6% 2-year revenue CAGR. Domestic volume growth was

at 29%, 4% 2-year CAGR. Cost restoration was quicker than expected in 4Q;

hence, EBITDA margin contracted by 108bps YoY to 21% (HSIE 23%) despite

a favourable base. EBITDA grew by 21% YoY (flat 2-year CAGR) vs. HSIE

32%. GCPL was on margin expansion trajectory and posted 100bps YoY

EBITDA margin expansion during 9MFY21, but missed in 4Q. However, the

hiring of the new CEO Sudhir Sitapati (from HUL) was the showstopper. He

brings vast experience (22 years) in working with one of the world’s most

well run companies - Unilever. Sudhir can introduce various required

changes in GCPL management, which are necessary to drive both domestic

and international business. Since the past one year, GCPL has renewed its

focus on growth and market share gain. Thus, the addition of Sudhir to the

team further empowers the growth focus of the company and gives us more

confidence on earnings longevity. Hence, we increase our target P/E

multiple to 42x (38x earlier) on Mar-23E EPS and drive TP of INR 925.

Maintain ADD.

Birla Corporation: Birla Corp’s (BCORP) 4QFY21 consolidated

revenue/EBITDA/APAT surged 20/8/106% QoQ (26/14/58% YoY) to INR

21.3/3.9/3.1bn respectively, led by robust volume growth and healthy

realisation. However, input and fixed cost inflation dragged down unitary

EBITDA by 8/11% QoQ/YoY to INR 918/MT. We continue to prefer BCORP

in the mid-cap space for its large retail presence in the northern/central

markets and ongoing opex reduction. Further, the ongoing expansion will

increase its capacity to 21mn MT by FY23, boosting volume growth

visibility. We maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of INR 1,451

(8.5x Mar’23E consolidated EBITDA).

HSIE Research Team

[email protected]

Page 2: 13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily

Page | 2

HSIE Results Daily

JMC Projects: JMC Projects (JMC) reported revenue of INR 13.5bn

(+44%/+26% YoY/QoQ), 6% ahead of our estimate. However, EBITDA/APAT

missed our estimate by ~7% on higher commodity prices and COVID-

related expenses. JMC registered an exceptional year with order wins of INR

84.4bn, taking the order book (OB) to INR 140bn. The momentum has

continued in 1QFY22 with intake of INR 30bn until now. Despite the

lockdown, labour availability is at 90% of Mar-21. Provided COVID

situation does not deteriorate further, management expects 15-20% revenue

growth. We reiterate BUY with an increased target price of INR 126, given

(1) a healthy order book (~4x FY21 revenue) and (2) comfortable balance

sheet. We have tweaked our FY21 estimate to incorporate continued

momentum in the order intake and higher commodity prices. Key risks: (1)

delay in restructuring/monetisation of BOT assets and (2) increase in

leverage.

Page 3: 13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily

Page | 3

HSIE Results Daily

Asian Paints

Exceeds expectations

APNT’s topline delivery (43.5% YoY) exceeded expectations (HSIE: 35%).

Growth was all-round. Decorative business clocked 48/46% volume/value

growth, underpinned by (1) strong pent-up demand in paints and adjacencies

(waterproofing) and 2) pick-up in metros and Tier 1/2 cities. Industrial

subsidiaries too delivered a strong recovery. GM crack (down 266bp YoY at

43.2%; in-line) was a foregone conclusion, given runaway RM inflation.

Strong cost control cushioned EBITDAM (+128bp at 19.8%; in-line). While the

double whammy of the second wave and RM inflation is expected to be a drag

in 1Q, demand normalisation trend over the year is unlikely to change

meaningfully for a category like paints. Hence, we marginally cut our FY22/23

revenue/EPS estimates (-2% each and -2/1% resp). Our DCF-based TP stands

unchanged at INR 2,300/sh, implying 54x FY23 P/E. Maintain REDUCE.

4QFY21 highlights: Revenue grew 43.5% YoY to Rs. 66.5bn (HSIE: Rs.

62.4bn) as all business vectors fired. Decorative volume/value grew 48/46%

YoY (13/8% for FY21) underpinned by (1) strong pent-up demand in paints

and adjacencies (waterproofing) and (2) pick-up in metros and Tier 1/2

cities. Industrial subsidiaries (PPG-AP and AP-PPG) too staged a strong

recovery (+39/63% resp). Strong Auto sales momentum continued. Within

non-auto, both industrial liquid and powder paints recovered well in 4Q.

GM crack (down 266bp YoY at 43.2%; in-line) was a foregone conclusion,

given runaway RM inflation. Strong cost control cushioned EBITDAM

(+128bp at 19.8%; in-line). International revenue grew 21.8/6.5% YoY to Rs.

7.3/25bn in 4Q/FY21. Management commenced its round of price hikes (first

round: +2.5% in Apr-21) to partly cushion expected impact on GM from RM

inflation.

Outlook: APNT’s wide distribution arbitrage has helped it recoup most of

its annual demand in FY21. We expect a similar demand normalisation

trajectory in FY22. Margin pressures remain, given the recent RM spikes

(will partly be cushioned by price hikes). We marginally cut our FY22/23

revenue/EPS estimates (-2% each and -2/1% resp). Our DCF-based TP stands

unchanged at INR 2,300/sh, implying 54x FY23 P/E. Maintain REDUCE.

Quarterly financial summary (INR mn) 4QFY21 4QFY20 YoY (%) 3QFY21 QoQ (%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Revenue 66,514 46,356 43.5 67,885 (2.0) 193,415 202,113 217,128 238,568 269,218

EBITDA 13,183 8,596 53.4 17,879 (26.3) 35,245 41,618 48,556 51,903 58,888

APAT 8,699 4,803 81.1 12,654 (31.3) 21,595 27,101 31,393 34,722 40,623

EPS (Rs) 9.1 5.0 81.1 13.19 (31.3) 22.5 28.3 32.7 36.2 42.4

P/E (x)

113.5 90.5 78.1 70.6 60.3

EV/EBITDA (x)

69.6 58.8 50.4 46.4 40.6

Core RoCE(%)

25.2 27.7 30.3 36.5 47.3

Source: Company, HSIE Research, Standalone Financials

Change in estimates

(INR mn)

FY21E FY22E FY23E

New Old Change

(%) New Old

Change

(%) New Old

Change

(%)

Revenue 217,128 213,051 1.9 238,568 243,889 (2.2) 269,218 273,335 (1.5)

Gross Profit 96,156 94,444 1.8 104,462 106,373 (1.8) 119,008 119,319 (0.3)

Gross Profit Margin(%) 44.3 44.3 (4 bps) 43.8 43.6 17 bps 44.2 43.7 55 bps

EBITDA 48,556 47,932 1.3 51,903 53,569 (3.1) 58,888 59,592 (1.2)

EBITDA margin (%) 22.4 22.5 (14 bps) 21.8 22.0 (21 bps) 21.9 21.8 7 bps

APAT 31,393 31,167 0.7 34,722 35,652 (2.6) 40,623 41,091 (1.1)

APAT margin (%) 14.5 14.6 (17 bps) 14.6 14.6 (6 bps) 15.1 15.0 6 bps

EPS (Rs) 32.7 32.5 0.7 36.2 37.2 (2.6) 42.4 42.8 (1.1)

Source: Company, HSIE Research

REDUCE

CMP (as on 12 May 21) INR 2,556

Target Price INR 2,300

NIFTY 14,697

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating REDUCE REDUCE

Price Target INR 2,300 INR 2,300

EPS % FY22E FY23E

-2.6 -1.1

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code APNT IN

No. of Shares (mn) 959

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 2,452/32,947

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 5,886

52 Week high / low INR 2,873/1,483

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 2.8 17.7 67.8

Relative (%) 8.4 5.4 12.6

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-20 Mar-21

Promoters 52.79 52.79

FIs & Local MFs 2.79 2.98

FPIs 21.13 20.38

Public & Others 23.29 23.85

Pledged Shares 5.63 4.98

Source : BSE

Pledged shares as % of total shares

Jay Gandhi

jay.gandhi @hdfcsec.com

+91-22-6171-7320

Page 4: 13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily

Page | 4

HSIE Results Daily

Godrej Consumers Miss in 4Q margin; inspiring addition to team

GCPL’s 4QFY21 was a mixed bag with in-line revenue but a miss in EBITDA.

Consolidated revenue registered 27% YoY growth (HSIE 26%). Domestic

revenue/EBITDA grew by 35/10% YoY, while international revenue/EBITDA

grew by 20/34%. Domestic/international revenue posted 5/6% 2-year revenue

CAGR. Domestic volume growth was at 29%, 4% 2-year CAGR. Cost

restoration was quicker than expected in 4Q; hence, EBITDA margin

contracted by 108bps YoY to 21% (HSIE 23%) despite a favourable base.

EBITDA grew by 21% YoY (flat 2-year CAGR) vs. HSIE 32%. GCPL was on

margin expansion trajectory and posted 100bps YoY EBITDA margin

expansion during 9MFY21, but missed in 4Q. However, the hiring of the new

CEO Sudhir Sitapati (from HUL) was the showstopper. He brings vast

experience (22 years) in working with one of the world’s most well run

companies - Unilever. Sudhir can introduce various required changes in

GCPL management, which are necessary to drive both domestic and

international business. Since the past one year, GCPL has renewed its focus

on growth and market share gain. Thus, the addition of Sudhir to the team

further empowers the growth focus of the company and gives us more

confidence on earnings longevity. Hence, we increase our target P/E multiple

to 42x (38x earlier) on Mar-23E EPS and drive TP of INR 925. Maintain ADD.

▪ In-line revenue, GUAM & LATAM standout: Consolidated revenue up by

27% (HSIE 26%) with domestic up by 35% (HSIE 30%) and international up

by 19% (HSIE 21%). Home Care posted 34% YoY growth (6% 2-year CAGR),

Soaps 41% YoY growth (4% 2-year CAGR) and Hair Colour 25% growth (-2%

2-year CAGR). The Indonesia business remained slow and clocked 5% YoY

growth. GUAM sustained momentum and posted 30% growth (36% cc).

LATAM and SAARC registered 30% growth (54% cc). In FY21, revenue grew

by 11% (-4% in FY20) with domestic growth of 14% (-4% in FY20) and

international growth of 8% (-4% in FY20). In FY21, HI clocked 15% growth,

Hygiene 24%, Hair Colour 14% while others category was down by 8%.

▪ Miss in margin: Gross margin contracted by 198bps YoY to 55.7% (-97bps in

4QFY20, -167bps in 3QFY21) vs. HSIE 56.9%. Employee cost was up by 38%

YoY (-16% in 4QFY20), A&P 51% YoY (-20% in 4QFY20) and other expenses

8% (-5% in 4QFY20). EBITDA grew by 21% YoY (flat 2-year CAGR) vs. HSIE

32% growth. Indonesia and GUAM EBITDA margins expanded by 230bps

and 710bps YoY. LATAM & SAARC EBITDA margin contracted by >400bps

YoY. EBITDA margin expansion was strong in 9MFY21 with 100bps YoY

expansion. Despite challenges in FY21, EBITDA registered 14% growth.

▪ Call and BS/CF takeaways: (1) The company remains growth focused, and

the mandate for the new CEO will be the same; (2) launch pace will continue;

(3) HI growth was across premium and burning formats; (4) e-commerce

saliency at 4%; (5) hygiene growth driving by a structural change; (6) market

share gain continued in soaps, where the company is now the second largest

player (low teens share); (7) FCF was INR 18.5bn vs. INR 14.4bn in FY20.

Quarterly/Annual Financial summary YE Mar (INR mn) 4QFY21 4QFY20 YoY (%) 3QFY21 QoQ (%) FY20 FY21P FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 27,307 21,538 26.8 30,554 (10.6) 99,108 110,286 121,448 133,966

EBITDA 5,748 4,765 20.6 7,112 (19.2) 21,430 24,431 26,900 29,813

APAT 4,170 3,288 26.8 4,970 (16.1) 14,725 17,150 19,710 22,516

Diluted EPS (Rs) 4.1 3.2 26.8 4.9 (16.1) 14.4 16.8 19.3 22.0

P/E (x) 60.7 52.2 45.4 39.7

EV / EBITDA (x)

42.7 42.0 36.0 32.3

RoCE (%)

19.0 21.5 23.8 26.9

Source: HSIE Research

ADD

CMP (as on 12 May 21) INR 873

Target Price INR 925

NIFTY 14,697

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating ADD ADD

Price Target INR 786 INR 925

EPS % FY22E FY23E

1% 6%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code GCPL IN

No. of Shares (mn) 1,022

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 892/11,993

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 1,138

52 Week high / low INR 895/510

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 15.7 27.0 68.6

Relative (%) 21.3 14.7 13.3

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-20 Mar-21

Promoters 63.23 63.23

FIs & Local MFs 3.09 3.04

FPIs 26.77 26.61

Public & Others 6.91 7.12

Pledged Shares 0.42 0.42

Source : BSE

Pledged shares as % of total shares

Varun Lohchab

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7334

Naveen Trivedi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7324

Page 5: 13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily

Page | 5

HSIE Results Daily

Birla Corporation

Healthy performance

Birla Corp’s (BCORP) 4QFY21 consolidated revenue/EBITDA/APAT surged

20/8/106% QoQ (26/14/58% YoY) to INR 21.3/3.9/3.1bn respectively, led by

robust volume growth and healthy realisation. However, input and fixed cost

inflation dragged down unitary EBITDA by 8/11% QoQ/YoY to INR 918/MT.

We continue to prefer BCORP in the mid-cap space for its large retail presence

in the northern/central markets and ongoing opex reduction. Further, the

ongoing expansion will increase its capacity to 21mn MT by FY23, boosting

volume growth visibility. We maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of

INR 1,451 (8.5x Mar’23E consolidated EBITDA).

4QFY21 highlights: Sales volume grew 18/26% QoQ/YoY, riding on healthy

demand. BCORP increased the share of premium cement sales to 53% (of

trade sales) vs 40% YoY. NSR increased 2% QoQ on price recovery. Higher

input cost led to 4/2% QoQ/YoY rise in unitary opex. Therefore, unitary

EBITDA fell 8/11% QoQ/YoY, moderating EBITDA rise to 8/14% QoQ/YoY.

FY21 highlights and outlook: FY21 net sales declined 2% YoY to INR 69.2bn

as volume fell 1% and NSR stood flat YoY. The share of premium cement

sales increased to 50% vs 40% YoY. Blended cement remained high at 92%.

Unitary opex cooled off 1% YoY, led by lower fuel costs during 1H and

BCORP’s ramping up green fuel share to 20% vs 15% (YoY) of total

consumed power. Thus, unitary EBITDA firmed up 4% YoY to INR

1,007/MT and EBITDA came in higher 3% at INR 13.7bn. BCORP’s cash

conversion cycle remained unchanged YoY at 27days. Net debt stood at INR

34bn vs 35bn YoY, on slower Capex (at INR 8bn vs 10bn YoY). These factors

led to positive FCF of INR 1.8bn vs outflow of INR 0.3bn YoY. Amid COVID

2.0, BCORP’s Mukutban expansion is delayed by three months to Dec’21.

We maintain our earnings estimates, BUY rating, and target price of INR

1,451 for BCORP (8.5x Mar’23E consolidated EBITDA).

Consolidated Quarterly/Annual Financial summary YE Mar

(INR mn)

4Q

FY21

4Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

3Q

FY21

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Sales (mn MT) 4.17 3.30 26.4 3.55 17.5 13.6 13.6 13.4 15.4 19.2

NSR (INR/MT) 4,851 4,884 (0.7) 4,765 1.8 4,551 4,819 4,848 4,745 4,835

Opex (INR/MT) 3,933 3,855 2.0 3,767 4.4 3,870 3,857 3,842 3,779 3,850

EBITDA (INR/MT) 918 1,029 (10.9) 998 (8.1) 680 962 1,006 966 985

Net Sales 21,326 16,900 26.2 17,766 20.0 65,487 69,157 67,855 74,035 86,617

EBITDA 3,920 3,446 13.8 3,624 8.2 9,487 13,360 13,702 14,687 17,308

APAT 3,072 1,947 57.8 1,495 105.5 2,558 5,052 6,890 4,847 5,792

AEPS (INR) 39.9 25.3 57.8 19.4 105.5 33.2 65.6 89.5 62.9 75.2

EV/EBITDA (x) 8.8 6.4 6.1 8.1 6.9

EV/MT (INR bn) 5.29 5.42 5.36 6.10 5.72

P/E (x) 19.5 9.9 7.2 16.6 13.9

RoE (%) 7.2 13.2 15.9 9.2 9.4

Source: Company, HSIE Research

BUY

CMP (as on 12 May 21) INR 1,043

Target Price INR 1,451

NIFTY 14,697

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY BUY

Price Target INR 1,451 INR 1,451

EBITDA % FY21E FY22E

- -

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code BCORP IN

No. of Shares (mn) 77

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 80/1,079

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 227

52 Week high / low INR 1,050/382

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 26.5 40.7 162.3

Relative (%) 32.0 28.4 107.1

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-20 Mar-21

Promoters 62.90 62.90

FIs & Local MFs 13.59 13.77

FPIs 3.80 3.61

Public & Others 19.71 19.72

Pledged Shares - -

Source : BSE

Pledged shares as % of total shares

Rajesh Ravi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7352

Saurabh Dugar

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7353

Page 6: 13 May 2021 HSIE Results Daily HSIE Results Daily

Page | 6

HSIE Results Daily

JMC Projects

Poised for growth

JMC Projects (JMC) reported revenue of INR 13.5bn (+44%/+26% YoY/QoQ),

6% ahead of our estimate. However, EBITDA/APAT missed our estimate by

~7% on higher commodity prices and COVID-related expenses. JMC

registered an exceptional year with order wins of INR 84.4bn, taking the order

book (OB) to INR 140bn. The momentum has continued in 1QFY22 with

intake of INR 30bn until now. Despite the lockdown, labour availability is at

90% of Mar-21. Provided COVID situation does not deteriorate further,

management expects 15-20% revenue growth. We reiterate BUY with an

increased target price of INR 126, given (1) a healthy order book (~4x FY21

revenue) and (2) comfortable balance sheet. We have tweaked our FY21

estimate to incorporate continued momentum in the order intake and higher

commodity prices. Key risks: (1) delay in restructuring/monetisation of BOT

assets and (2) increase in leverage.

Growth levers in place; higher commodity prices could put a spanner:

JMC reported revenue of INR 13.5bn (+44%/+26% YoY/QoQ). EBITDA at

INR 1.3bn was impacted by higher commodity prices. APAT at Rs 601mn

(+33% YoY) was 7% below our estimate. Management has guided for 15-20%

topline growth in FY22, which we believe is achievable, given the robust OB.

Despite 90% of the OB being variable pass-through contract, higher

commodity prices could jeopardise JMC’s double-digit margin guidance. We

remain cautious and build in 9.5% EBITDA margin for FY22.

Exceptional year in terms of order wins: JMC received orders of INR 84.4bn

in FY21, more than its guidance of INR 60bn to 80bn for the year. Including

the order wins of INR 30bn in 1QFY22, the order book stands at INR 170bn

(~4.6x FY21 revenue). Although management did not give any formal

guidance, it expects to match FY21 in terms of order intake, driven by B&F

and water segments.

Debt to be at the same level; resolution of BOT assets inching closer:

Standalone net debt reduced to INR 5.1bn (net D/E 0.47x) from INR 6.6bn at

the end of Dec-20. Debt is likely to remain at similar level in the near term,

given the growth prospects. Basis management commentary, the

restructuring process of two of the BOT road assets (Wainganga and

Kurukshetra Expressway) could be completed by Jun-21. For Vindhyachal

asset, a binding offer is expected in 60-90 days from a prospective buyer. The

restructuring process would potentially reduce (near NIL) the support

required from JMC.

Standalone Financial Summary YE March 4QFY21 4QFY20 YoY (%) 3QFY21 QoQ (%) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 13,486 9,386 43.7 10,660 26.5 37,130 36,888 43,100 49,385

EBITDA 1,352 1,065 27.0 955 41.6 3,319 3,315 4,095 4,988

APAT 601 451 33.2 257 133.9 1,584 711 1,194 1,750

EPS (Rs) 3.6 2.7 33.2 1.5 133.9 9.4 4.2 7.1 10.4

P/E (x)

10.4 23.1 13.8 9.4

EV/EBITDA (x)

7.3 6.4 5.6 4.5

RoE (%)

16.7 7.2 11.3 14.9

Estimate Change Summary (Standalone)

INR mn FY22E FY23E

New Old % chg. New Old % chg.

Revenues 43,100 39,620 8.8 49,385 45,227 9.2

EBIDTA 4,095 4,120 (0.6) 4,988 4,749 5.0

EBIDTA Margins (%) 9.5 10.4 (90.0) 10.1 10.5 (40.0)

APAT 1,194 1,213 (1.6) 1,750 1,611 8.6

Source: Company, HSIE Research

BUY CMP (as on 12 May 21) INR 98

Target Price INR 126

NIFTY 14,697

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY BUY

Price Target INR 110 INR 126

EPS % FY22E FY23E

-1.6 +8.6

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code JMCP IN

No. of Shares (mn) 168

MCap (INR bn) / ($ mn) 16/221

6m avg traded value (INR mn) 36

52 Week high / low INR 109/32

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 28.9 101.0 156.9

Relative (%) 34.5 88.7 101.7

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Dec-20 Mar-20

Promoters 67.75 67.75

FIs & Local MFs 16.53 16.35

FPIs 0.25 0.24

Public & Others 15.47 15.66

Pledged Shares - -

Source : BSE

Parikshit D Kandpal, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7317

Chintan Parikh

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7330

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Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Disclosure:

Analyst Company Covered Qualification Any holding in the stock

Jay Gandhi Asian Paints MBA NO

Varun Lohchab Godrej Consumers PGDM NO

Naveen Trivedi Godrej Consumers MBA NO

Rajesh Ravi Birla Corporation MBA NO

Saurabh Dugar Birla Corporation MBA NO

Parikshit Kandpal JMC Projects CFA NO

Chintan Parikh JMC Projects MBA NO

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HSIE Results Daily

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