12 · 2012-12-21 · 403 12 hydrogen revolution: growth, jobs, security & sustainability “the...

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12Hydrogen Revolution: Growth, Jobs, Security & Sustainability

“The worldwide hydrogen energy web will be the next great

technological, commercial, and social revolution in history.”— Jeremy Rifkin, The hydrogen economy, 2003

Will the hydrogen fuel cell replace the internal combustion engine, and is it useful beyond transportation? Yes.

• Thereplacementcouldstarttohappenwithin10years,ifwebeginthetransitiontothenewenergyeconomytoday.

• Allmajorcarmanufacturersalreadyhaveadvancedhydrogenfuelcellprogramsunderway.

• ThehydrogenfuelcellcleanlyconvertsH2+O2intoelectricity+H2O,forvehicles,businesses,andhomes.

• Critics view the challenges as hydrogen fuel cell cost, andhydrogenproduction,distribution,safety,andstorage.

FreedOmFrOmmid-eAsTOil

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The Hydrogen RacerYoumaythinkthathydrogenpowerissomefuturisticfantasy,

fitonlyforsciencefictionwriterslikeJulesVerneinhisnovelMyste-rious Island.Or, atbest youmightconsider it a viable technologythatwon’tbereadyforprimetimeforanother40to50years.ifso,thinkagain. ina special editionon“Best inventions2006,”Timemagazinepraisesthedecisionbyshanghai-basedHorizonFuelCellTechnologies“todesignandmarkettheH-racer,a6-inch-longtoycarthatdoeswhatdetroitstillcan’t.itrunsonhydrogenextractedfromplaintapwater,usingthesolar-powerhydrogenstation.”1

Hydrogen vehicles are not mere toys.There are more than500nowontheroad.ABmWprototypewithahydrogeninternalcombustionengineattainedatopspeedof186mph.mazda,Ford,Honda, and Gm are developing a variety of hydrogen-poweredengines: fuelcell, internalcombustion,andWankel.Perhapsmostexciting, Honda is now powering vehicles with hydrogen derivedfromtapwaterinsmallstationaryunitsthatdriverscankeepintheirgarages.

Honda’s80-hpexperimental2005FCXfuelcellcarisalreadybeingtestedonpublicroadsinlosAngeles,alongwithasecond-generationhydrogenhomeenergystation.inFebruary2007,Hondareported:

WithanePAcity/highwayratingof62/51milesperkilogram(mpkg)(57mpkgcombined)andanePA-rateddrivingrangeof190miles,thehydrogen-poweredFCXdeliversnearlya20%improvementinfuelefficiencyandrange versus the 2004model . . . . in termsof energyefficiency,onempkgofhydrogenisalmostequivalenttoonemile per gallon (mpg) of gasoline.Thehydrogen-poweredHondaFCXhasbeencertifiedbyCArBasaZeroemissionVehicleandbytheePA[with]thelowestpossiblenationalemissionrating.2

since this announcement was made, Honda has stated itsintentiontosellproductionmodelsofthecarin2008,withmaxi-mumrangesof350milesandspeedsof100mph.Hondahasalso

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CHAPTer12:HYdrOGenreVOluTiOn

announced the development of advanced photovoltaic (PV) cellsandanelectrolysisunitthataremountedonthecompany’ssolar-cellpowered hydrogen refueling station inTorrance, California.Thistechnology is the primary engine for performing electrolysis, theprocessthatseparatesthepurehydrogenfromwater.let’srememberthatsome10-15yearsago,whentheJapanesecarmakerscommittedthemselves to commercialize a hybrid car, detroit was snickeringthattheymustbejoking!AndnowGm,Fordandothersareplay-ingcatch-uphopingtosomedaycompetewiththelikesofHondaandToyotainhybridtechnologythatwasingreatpartdevelopedatstanforduniversity!

We believe the current rapid pace of invention, testing, andcommercializationoffuelcelltechnologiesisasignoftheearlystagesofthehydrogenrevolution.Bystartingtoday,insteadofwaitinghalfacenturyascriticssuggest,thelarge-scalecommercializationofhydro-genfuelcellcarscanbeginverysoon.

Hydrogen: The Next Energy EconomyWehavecometoacrossroadswhereasingle,courageousdeci-

sionbya fewworld leaderscan fundamentallyalter thecourseofhistory.Thatdecision is to shift fromourdependenceon rapidlydepleting, increasingly costly, and environmentally challengingfossil fuels to a plentiful, renewable, and clean-burning hydrogeneconomy.

Hydrogenisbyfarthemostabundantenergymoleculeintheuniverse.Perhapsthatfactcanserveasaremindertousoftheenergysourceweshouldbetapping.

Hydrogencanbethoughtofasagaseousformofelectricity.Anythingthatelectricitycando,ahydrogenfuelcellwithahydro-gensupplycandoaswell.However,whileelectricitycanbestoredonlyinbatteriesandcapacitorsthathaveaverylowenergydensity(energyperunitofweight),hydrogencanbestoredinanycontainerfromanindustrialtankertoanautomobilegastank.Withadvancedhydrogen storage technologies, plus water, an electrolyzer, and arenewablesourceofenergy,inthenearfuturecars,homes,andbusi-


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nesseswillbecomeindependentpowerproducersthatcangenerateelectricityandsellittothegrid.Thegridwillincreasinglybecomeadistributionsystemformanyproducersofelectricalpower.itwillservethehomeownerwhoproducesexcesspowerjustaseffectivelyasitdoesalargeutilityplantdedicatedtopowerproduction.

False Fears:PastAmericanadministrations,whilerecogniz-ing that hydrogen may be important in the future, assumed thattheorderlytransitiontohydrogenwouldrequireanimplementationplan that spannedfourorfivedecades.This forecast restson twofalseassumptions.Thefirstisthattherewillbesufficientsuppliesofcheapoilfortheforeseeablefuture.Thesecondisthatevenifoilpricesincreasesignificantly,newdiscoveriesandfossilfueltechnolo-gieswillfillthegap,creatingatmost,modestglobaldislocations.

manycritics andenergyexpertsoutsidegovernmentbelievethese false assumptions about oil and think that “hydrogen won’tfly”orthatitwillbeviableonlyfarinthefuture.Thisviewisbasedon a series of common misconceptions about the cost, efficiency,technology, and history of hydrogen. Hydrogen is the energysourcethatflewtheApolloProjecttothemoon.itwaschosenoverother energy sources because of its numerous advantages, includ-ing itshigher efficiencyperunit ofmass.Whenused as apowersource,hydrogenproducesonlythreethings:power,purewater,andextremelysmallquantitiesofnitrogenoxides.Thelatterissosmallthatfuelcellvehiclesareconsideredzero-emissionvehicles.Thus,itisnon-pollutingandnon-corrosive.Whileflammable,hydrogenburnsatalowtemperatureandgenerateslowradiantheat.itismoredifficult to explode than most people realize because it dissipatesintotheatmosphererapidly.

Enormous Potential. Basicscientificfactsandeconomicreali-tiescreateacompellingcaseforhydrogen’sroleasthecenterpieceoftheworld’snextenergyeconomyforthefollowingreasons:

• exceptforhydrogen,thereisnootherclean,sustainable,andtechnologically-availableenergycarrier.

• Hydrogendoesnotcontributetoglobalwarming.

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• Whilehydrogen is still expensive to create,when combinedwithfuel-celltechnology,itgeneratesmorethantwiceasmuchenergyasoil,andisthereforeeconomicallyviableevenatoilpricesof$60/barrel.

• AhydrogeneconomywouldallowAmericatoachievelong-lastingenergyfreedomandindependencefromforeignoil.

• Hydrogen can be used to power any machinery in eitherstationary applications (homes and offices) or mobileapplications(carsandtrucks).

• in the long-term, the hydrogen fuel cell can replace theinternal combustion engine and catalyzedetroit’s economicrenaissanceandinternationaleconomicgrowth.

• Hydrogencanbegenerated fromnaturalgasandeventuallyfromwatervialocal,decentralizedenergysystems,removingthe costs and risksof fueldistributionassociatedwith fossilfuelsandnuclearpower.

• As an inexhaustible source of clean energy, hydrogen willenhancehumanhealth,protecttheenvironment,andincreaseenergyequality.

The Hydrogen Fuel Cell: How it Works Thehydrogenfuelcellisoneofthesimplesttechnologiesfor

generatingelectricity.electricityisessentiallyastreamofelectrons.Thehydrogenatom,comprisedofoneprotonandoneelectron,isthelightestandmostplentifulelementintheuniverse.AsFigure1 shows, a hydrogen fuel cell uses an electro-chemical process,as opposed to the thermal-chemical process used in the internalcombustionengine,toseparatetheelectronfromtheproton;usestheelectrontocreateelectricity;andthencombinesthehydrogenwithoxygentomakeH2O.Over99%of itsexhaust isultra-pure,drinkablewater.sincethehydrogenfuelcellhasnomovingparts,itisquiet,clean,andhighlyefficient.


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Hydrogencanbetransformedtogenerateelectricitythroughfivesteps:

1.The hydrogen is ionized by placing a stream of hydrogenand oxygen at the anode and cathode catalytic electrodes,respectively,ofthefuelcell.

2.Ontheanodecatalyst,hydrogenisseparatedintoprotonsandelectrons.

3.The electrons are forced to travel an external path, thussupplyingelectricity.

4.Theprotonspassthroughtheprotonexchangemembrane.

5.Onthecathodecatalyst,oxygenreactswiththeelectronsandprotonstocreatewaterexhaustandsomeheat.

Figure 1. How A Hydrogen Fuel Cell Works 2H

2 + O

2 = Electricity + 2H

2O

Source: World Business Academy Energy Task Force

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H+H+

H+

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H+ H+H+

H2O

O2

O2

O2

O2

anodecatalyst

protonexchangemembrane

electric circuit

cathodecatalyst

from air

exhaust

H2

fuel

1

2

3

4

5

electronproton

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Currently, both the anode and the cathode are coated withanultra-thin,finely-dispersedplatinumsurface,whichisthemostexpensive component in the manufacture of hydrogen fuel cells.Other types of fuel cells can use diesel, methanol, and chemicalhydridestoseparateelectronsandcreateelectricalpower.However,on a “well-to-wheels basis,” these fuels cells will generate morecarbondioxidethanthe“classic”hydrogen-oxygenfuelcell.

To increase theoutputofelectricity,aseriesof fuelcellsarelinked together, creating a fuel cell stack. since a single fuel cellproduces only about one volt of electricity, fuel cells are typicallylayeredandcombinedinparallelcircuits.Thenumberofcellsinafuelcellstackistypically45,butdesignsandcapacityvary.

Theefficiencyoffuelcellsvastlyexceedsthatoftheinternalcombustionengineduetothefuelcells’relativeindependencefromthethermodynamic,heattransferlimitationsknownastheCarnotcycle. in theprocess of generatingpower, a conventional thermalengine such as the internal combustion engine loses much moreenergy than a hydrogen fuel cell. Therefore, hydrogen fuel cellsboastveryhighefficienciesintheiridealstateoflowpowerdensity(suppliedbyusingfuelcellstacks),whenusingpurehydrogenandoxygenasreactants.ifafuelcellusesthecommonairwebreatheasitssourceofoxygen,itsefficiencydropsslightly.

Diminishing Costs of Fuel Cell Technology. Thehighcostofmanufacturinghydrogenfuelcellsisfallingataratethatanyothertechnologywouldenvy.in2002,theaveragefuelcellhadapricetagforitscatalystcontentof$1000perkilowattofelectricpower.Thiswasprojectedtodropby2007to$303perkilowatt.Here,BallardPower systems (nAsdAQ: BldP) one of the world’s foremostmajormanufacturersofProtonexchangemembrane fuel cells, isexperimentingwithplatinumsupportedoncarbonizedsilkcatalyststhat would reduce platinum usage by 30%, with no reduction inperformance.


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Hydrogen’s Critics Are Wrongseventy-fivepercentbyweightof allmatter in theuniverse

ismadeupofhydrogen.Onearth, it isubiquitous,mosttypicallyboundupinwater,naturalgas,andcoal.itcanbestoredasagasoraliquidandcanpoweranythingfromacartoabuildingtoanocean liner.Hydrogenhas thepotential to supply theworldwithrelativelyinexpensive,clean,renewableenergy,andtherebystabilizetheeconomyandtheenvironment.

several standard college text books on energy either ignorehydrogen completely or give it only cursory treatment beforedismissing it as a significant potential source of renewable ener-gy.4Currently,theperceptionofhydrogen’spotentialiscloudedbynumerous myths and misconceptions voiced by naysayers, whosecritiquesmustbeaddressed.

Examples of Hydrogen Naysayers. some well-informedenergyexpertscontendthathydrogenwillbeviableonlyafter20to30yearsofdevelopment.Forexample,Paulroberts,authorofthewidely-acclaimed,The End of Oil,arguesthat,“Hydrogenfuelcellsandareadysupplyofhydrogentofuelthemarestilldecadesawayfrommassdeployment.”5

similarly,dr.lesterBrown,aworld-renownedenvironmentalscientist and a Fellow of theWorld Business Academy, contendsthat,“unlikethewidelydiscussedfuelcell/hydrogentransportationmodel,thegas-electrichybrid/windmodeldoesnotrequireacostlynewinfrastructure,sincethenetworkofgasolineservicestationsandtheelectricitygridarealreadyinplace.”6

TheWorldwatch institute, too, holds this view, noting that“despiterecentpublicattentionaboutthepotentialforahydrogeneconomy, it could take decades to develop the infrastructure andvehiclesrequiredforahydrogen-poweredsystem.”7

richardHeinberg,authorofThe Party’s OverandPower Down,writesthat,“Atthispoint,muchoftheenthusiasmabouthydrogenseemstobeissuingfrompoliticsratherthanscience.”8

Joseph romm, a leading hydrogen critic and author of The

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Hype About Hydrogen,statesthat,“Hydrogenvehiclesareunlikelytoachieveevena5%marketshareby2030.”9

inourview,thesepredictionsareneedlesslypessimistic,andthelastisoffbyatleastadecade.infact,morethan250,000recentlycommercializedhybridelectricvehiclesweresoldin2006,andsalesare expected to grow by over 226% between 2005 and 2012.10 ifAmerica makes hydrogen a national priority, we know the firstcommercially availablehydrogen internal combustionengineswillbeBmWsdeliveredby late2007,andweforeseethefirstafford-ablehydrogenfuelcellcarscomingtomarketstartingin2010-2012,togetherachieving5%newcarmarketshareby2020orearlier.

mostofthesecriticismscanbereducedtoaquestionofthetimingof theeconomicviabilityofhydrogen fuel cell cars, ratherthan the viability, availability, or cost of the technology.They areencapsulatedinPaulroberts’sassertionthat“aself-sustainingfuelcellcarindustryis,atbest,atleasttwodecadesaway,andprobablymore—toolongtowaittobeginreducingourautomotiveemissionsorenergyuse.”11

unlikethecritics,webelievethat,ifwesimultaneouslyimple-ment thePrometheusPlanandthestrategy for launchingtheu.s.hydrogeneconomyoutlinedbelow,thenthewidespreadcommercial-ization of hydrogen as a fuel source in cars, homes and businesseswillbewellunderwayby2010.Wereiteratethattheoilsavingsthatwill accrue from the Prometheus Plan are in no way dependent onhydrogentechnology.Weseethefreedomfrommiddleeastoilasonlyabeginning.Therefore,thisplanincludestheoutlinesforaBeyondPrometheusstrategy,inwhichhydrogenisthecoreinitiative.

Eight Hydrogen Myths let’sexaminethefactsaboutactualhydrogenusageandthen

analyzethecritics’misconceptionsaboutviability,availability,orcostofthetechnology.Themostelegantandcomprehensiverebuttaltothese criticisms appears in World Business Academy Fellow andenergyguruAmorylovins’2003paper,“TwentyHydrogenmyths.”


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Wehaveconsolidatedhismaininsightsbelowinordertoaddressthemostsignificantmisconceptionsabouthydrogen.12

• About75%oftheknownuniverseiscomprisedofhydrogen,whichunlikeoil,coal,wind,orsun, isnotanenergysource.rather,itisanenergycarrier,likeelectricityorgasoline.

• Asanenergycarrier, itneeds tobe freedfromthechemicalcompounds, such as water or natural gas, into which it isbound.

• Fossil-fuel molecules are combinations of carbon, hydrogen,andotheratoms.Thedebatecentersonwhetheritischeaperandmorebeneficialtoburntheremainingcarbonorsimplytofreeandusethehydrogen.

• using hydrogen as a fuel yields only water and traces ofnitrogenoxides.This shiftcansignificantly reducepollutionandclimatechange.

• Hydrogenisthelightestelementintheuniverse.Perunitofvolume,hydrogencontainsonly30%asmuchenergyasnaturalgaswhenbothareatatmosphericpressure.Thus,hydrogenismostadvantageouswherelightnessisworthmorethanvolume,whichistrueformosttransportationfuels.

Oneofthebiggestchallengesinaddressingcriticismofhydro-genistocomparehydrogenfairlyandconsistentlywithotherenergycarriers.Forexample,fuelcells,aselectrochemicaldevices,arenotsubjecttothesamethermodynamiclimitsasgasoline-drivenengines,whichdotheirworkbygeneratingheat.Asaresult,“Youcandriveseveral times as far on a gallon-equivalent (in energy content) ofhydrogeninafuel-cellcarasonagallonofgasolineinanengine-drivencar.”13

Myth #1: An entire hydrogen industry needs to be developed from scratch.

Theproductionofhydrogenisalreadyalarge,matureindustry,andnewtechnologywillallowtheaverageconsumertopowerhis

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orherhomeandcarfromthegarage.Currently,theglobalhydro-genindustryannuallyproduces50millionmetrictonsofhydrogen,worth about $150 billion. That’s the same as 170 million tons-equivalent of oil. u.s. hydrogen production alone accounts for atleastone-fifthandprobablynearerone-thirdoftheworldtotal.Toputitinperspective,thecurrentglobaloutputofpurehydrogenhastheenergy-equivalenceof1.2billionbarrelsofoil,oraboutaquarterofu.s.petroleumimports.14

Hydrogen production is now centralized, primarily becausehydrogenusageiscentralized.inthefuture,usagewillbecomedecen-tralized,leadingtoademandforadistributedhydrogenproductionsystem.Thegrowthof adistributednetworkof small“reformers”which extract hydrogen from natural gas or electrolyzers (whichextracthydrogenfromwater)willeasilysupportthisdemand.initiallythereformersorelectrolyzerscanoperateontheexcesspowercapac-ityofexistinggasandelectricitygridsatoff-peakhours.

Our current production is already far greater than even theabovenumbersindicate.ifweweretofunnelallcurrenthydrogenproductionintoadvancedultra-lightvehiclesasefficientasthequin-tupled-efficiencyrevolution concept car fromHypercar, itwoulddisplacetwo-thirdsoftoday’sentireworldwidegasolineconsump-tion.incontrast,one-thirdofallhydrogenisusedintheproductionofgasoline.Furthermore,theworld’scurrenthydrogenproductioncould potentially be created via direct electrolysis of water, usingonlycost-efficientwindpowerfromnorthandsouthdakota.

Thehydrogenindustryisgrowingat6%ayearanddoublingevery12years.Allthisishappeningabsenttheincentivethatwouldbeprovidedbyagrowingfleetofhydrogenfuelcellvehiclesinneedoffuel.ifthehydrogenindustrycanexpandsoquicklywhile“belowtheradar,”itwillhavenoproblemexpandingquicklyenoughtofuelanynumberofhydrogenfuelcellcars.

ThenewmodelsoftheHondaFCXarepoweredentirelybyhydrogen, and come with a home-based hydrogen energy stationthatproducesenoughhydrogentofuelthecarandalsopowertheowner’shousebyreforminghydrogenfromanaturalgasline.The


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stationwillsoonbeconfiguredtofunctionwith20squareyardsofsolarmaterial thatwillmake it independent fromthegrid.largecommercial structures can place this nano-solar material on anynon-transparentsurfacetopowerbothbuildingsandvehicles.

Myth #2: Hydrogen is too dangerous or explosive for common use as fuel.

Thismythbeginswiththehydrogen-filledpassengerdirigible,the Hindenburg. The Hindenburg air disaster occurred at lake-hurst,newJersey,in1937.recently,theeventwasrevisitedthroughadetailedanalysisbynAsAscientistdr.AddisonBain.Hefoundthattheincidentwouldhaveoccurredalmostidenticallyevenifthedirigiblehadbeenfilledwithnonflammableheliumgas.itwasnotthehydrogenthatoriginallycombusted,itwasthedirigible’soutercoating,whichwasahighlyflammablematerialsimilartothatusedinrocketpropellants.Therewasnoexplosion,anditwasunlikelythatanyonewaskilledbythehydrogenfire.Thesurvivingpassen-gers livedbyridingthedirigible totheground,sincetheburninghydrogenrosequicklyintotheairwithoutspreadingitsheattothegondola.incomparison,theexplosivepowerofgasolineis22timesgreaterbyvolume.

Anyonewhohasseentheendlessreplaysoftheseptember11disastersknowspreciselyhowflammableouraviationfuelofchoicetrulyis.Hydrogenismuchsafer.Period.

inreality,thehydrogenindustryhasanexcellentsafetyrecordoverthepasthalf-century.lastyearalone,in40,000shipmentsto1,000 locations, it carried100milliongallonsof liquidhydrogen.Over30years,liquefiedhydrogenshipmentshavelogged33billionmiles. in all this time, there have been no product losses and nofires.15Gasoline,ourautomotivefuelofchoice,hasadismalsafetyrecordincomparison.

Hydrogen, though flammable, is generally more easilymanagedthanhydrocarbonfuels,includinggasoline.itisextremelylight—14.4 times lighter than air and approximately seven timeslighterthannaturalgas.

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Hydrogen-air mixtures are difficult to combust, requiring aconstrainedvolumeofelongatedshape.Hydrogenexplosionsrequireatleasttwiceasrichamixtureofhydrogenasdoesanexplosionofnaturalgas (i.e., theyneeddouble thedensityofgas to containervolume).inotherwords,leakinghydrogenwilligniteandburn,butnotexplode.ifhydrogenisignited,itburnswithaclearflamewithonlyone-tenththeradiantheatofahydrocarbonfire.Theheatthatis produced tends todissipatemuchmore rapidly thandoesheatfromgasolineoroilfires.Victimsinahydrogenfiregenerallyarenotburnedunlessdirectlyintheflame,nordotheychokeonsmoke.

Thebeliefthathydrogenisunusuallydangerousiseasytodispelwithvideotapesshowingmoderntestsofanignitedleakinacar’shydrogenfuelcell.16Themostimportantcomparisonisbetweenahydrogenfireandagasolinefire.First,ahydrogenfirewascreatedin a test car by by-passing the triple-redundant safety interlocks.(Currentindustrystandardsforhydrogenleakdetectionandsafetyinterlocksarethoroughandveryeffective.)Theleakwasengineeredatthehighest-pressurelocationanddischargedafull1.54kilogramsof hydrogen in approximately 100 seconds.The resulting verticalflameplumeraisedthecar’sinteriortemperaturebyamaximumof1-2°F(0.6-1.1°C),and itsoutsidetemperaturerosebythesameamountasacarsittingindirectsunlight.Thepassengercompart-mentwasunharmed.inotherwords,apassengerwouldn’tnoticetheheat,letalonebehurtbyit.

in the second test, a 2.5-fold slower leak of gasoline from a1/16inch(1.6mm)holeinafuellineincineratedthecar’sinteriorandwouldhavekilledanyonetrappedinside.

Bottomline:thehydrogensafetycriticsshouldturntheirfireagainstgasoline,andagitatefortherapidadoptionofhydrogenonsafetygroundsalone!

Myth #3: Making hydrogen is inefficient because the energy used is greater than the energy yield.

Accordingtophysics,anyconversionofenergyfromoneformtoanotherwillusemoreenergythanitcreates.ifyoucreatedmore


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energythanyouused,youwouldhaveaperpetualmotionmachine,whichviolatesthelawsofphysics.sinceitisimpossibletoavoidalossofenergy,therelevantquestionisactually,“isthelossofenergyassociatedwithconvertingmatterfromoneformtoanotherworththecost?”

iftheanswerwerecategorically“no,”asthemythimplies,thenwewouldnotmakegasolinefromcrudeoil(~73-91%efficientfromwellhead-to-pump)orelectricityfromfossilfuel(~29-35%efficientfromcoalatthepowerplant-to-retailmeter).Hydrogenconvertsat72-85%efficiencyinnatural-gasreformersorat70-75%efficiencyinelectrolyzers.

sowhy is itworthwhile to accept these conversion losses? itisworthwhilebecausehydrogen’sgreaterandmoreversatileend-useefficiency can more than offset the conversion losses. This makessenseinthesamemannerthatanairconditionercanoffsetfuel-to-electricityconversionlossesbyusingoneunitofelectricitytodeliverseveralunitsofcoolair.inotherwords,conversionlossesareacceptableiftheenergyproducedismoreversatileandcanbemoreefficientlyusedthanintheoriginal form,resulting ingreatereconomicvalue.Hydrogeneasilymeetsthesecriteria.

itisanunfortunatefactthatfortoday,naturalgaspresentsthemostfeasiblesourceofhydrogen.Asapetrochemicalfeedstockthatbothcontributes toglobalwarmingand is inquestionable supply,naturalgaspresentsmanydifficulties.Thelongrunsolutionisobvi-ous:userenewablestofueltheprocessesthatwillgeneratehydrogenfromwaterinadecentralizedsystem.

Anothermisconceptioncommonlyassociatedwiththismythisthatcrudeoilcanbemoreefficientlyconvertedintodeliveredgaso-linethannaturalgascanbeconvertedintodeliveredhydrogen.Anydifference in the efficiency with which gasoline and hydrogen canbeconvertedfromoneformofenergyintoanotherisovershadowedbyhydrogen’sgreaterefficiencyovergasolineinpoweringavehicle.usinghydrogentorunafuel-cellcaristwotothreetimesmoreeffi-cientthanusinggasolinetorunaninternalcombustionengine.Again,thisisbecausecombustionisalwayslimitedbythethermodynamic

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constraintsoftheso-calledCarnotCycle.Thisisnotsoforelectricaldevicessuchasafuelcell.

usingnumbersfromToyota,88%oftheenergyintheoilatthewellheadbecomesenergyinthegasolineinyourtank,and16%ofgasoline’senergyreachesyourwheels.Thiswell-to-wheelseffi-ciencyisthereforeonly14%.Ontheotherhand,locallyreformednatural gas (with the advantage of a potentially decentralizedhydrogengenerationnetwork)delivers70%ofthewellheadenergyintothecar’stank.Thesuper-efficientfuel-celldrivesystembringsawhopping 60% of that energy to the wheels.This results in awell-to-wheelsefficiencyof42%,orthreetimestheefficiencyofgasoline(i.e.,42%/14%=3),andeven1.5timestheefficiencyofthegasolinehybridelectriccar.

itispreciselybecauseoftheseefficienciesthatitmakessoundeconomic and environmental sense to take the leftover natural gaswhichwillbesavedbytheaggressiveimplementationofrenewablesintheelectricsector,andconvertittohydrogenwhichwillbeusedtopowerhydrogenfuelcellvehicles,therebydisplacingmostoftheremainingoiluseinthetransportationsector.

Furthermore,hydrogen’sefficiencyissogreatthatitmayevenmake good sense to use hydrogen as an electric storage medium,especiallyforexpansionandpeakingpower,intheelectricitymarket.usinghydrogenforon-siteenergyduringpeaksisaparticularlyinter-estingideaforlargemetropolitanareaswithtransmissionconstraints,aswell as for remoteoff-grid locations.Thiswould facilitatemoreflexibleenergyusageandsavepowerplantfuelbyencouraginggreateruseof intermittentsources likewind.Andfordevelopingcountriesandotherremoteareaswherenoinfrastructureexists,theanswerisobvious—fuel cellpower is thepreferredmotive force, just as solarpoweristoday.

Myth #4: Delivery to end users consumes most of hydrogen’s energy.

in2003, twoswissscientistsanalyzedtheenergyneededtodeliverhydrogen,usinganumberofdifferentmethods.17itisonly


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fair to note that their net-energy figures were basically correct,thoughnottheirconclusionthathydrogen’s“physicalpropertiesareincompatiblewiththerequirementsoftheenergymarket.Produc-tion,packaging,storage,transfer,anddeliveryofthegas...aresoenergyconsumingthatalternativesshouldbeconsidered.”Therearefiverelevantpiecesofinformationwhichinvalidatethisconclusion.

First,theswissscientists’reportwaspublishedbythemethanolinstitute,whichpromotesmethanoloverhydrogen,whichrenderstheirfindingsgenerallysuspect.

second, thepaperpresentedcertainhydrogenprocesses thathavealreadybeenrejected,exceptinspecialmarkets,becausetheyaretoocostly.

Third, the researchers focused entirely on electrolysis—thecostliestmethod—andsincethewritingoftheirpaper,thepriceofelectrolysishasdroppedfrom$8/kgto$3/kg,andcontinuestofall.evenwiththehighcostofelectrolysis,theycompletelyignoredanytransitionalhydrogenproductionprocessessuchassteamreformingofnaturalgas.

Fourth,theyadmitthatreformingfossilfuelssuchasnaturalgasischeaper thanelectrolysis,but reject reformingbecause,accordingto theircalculations, it releasesmoreCO2 thansimplyburningthehydrocarbon.Thiscompletelyignoreshydrogen’sfuel-cellefficiencyadvantageof200to300%relativetoconventionalgasolineinternalcombustionenginecars.usingthemostconservativeassumptions,acarpoweredbyhydrogenfuelcellsemits40to67%lesscarbondioxidepermilethanagasoline-poweredcarofotherwise identicaldesign.eliminatingtheburningofhydrocarbonsachievesanetreductioninCO2emissions.

Fifth,alloftheirenergytransportationnumbersarerelevantonlyunder a centralizedhydrogen system,andnot adistributedsystem. if the hydrogen economy were a centralized system, wewouldmiss oneof the great benefits ofhydrogen—its ability tobe generated in a basementor garagewith a supplyofwater ornaturalgasplusanelectrolysismachineorsmallreformer.itisthede-centralized system that will grow. The initial investment for

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a reformer is relatively small (as noted earlier, the Honda FCXalreadycomeswithahomehydrogenpowersystem),eliminatingtheneedforanythingmorethananaturalgasline,awaterline,andsomeelectricity(off-peakgridorrenewable-fueled).Thereformerproduceshydrogenwithnotransportationcost.

However, the electrolysis technology that is rapidly beingdevelopedandtested inicelandandHawaii toproducehydrogenwithelectrolyzersandwaterwillprovetobefarpreferabletoproduc-inghydrogenbyreformingnaturalgasbecauseelectrolysisdoesnotcontributetoglobalwarming.electrolysiswillbeasuperiormethod-ologyforextractinghydrogeninbothsmallandlarge-scalefacilities.Whileforalltheforegoingreasons,producinghydrogenfromnaturalgasissuperiortothegasoline-poweredinternalcombustionengine,wehopetheindustrywillrapidlyswitchtothefarmoreintelligentsolutionofproducinghydrogenwithelectrolyzersandwater.

Furthermore, if society ever decided that the best choice iscentralizedhydrogenproductionbysteamreformingofnaturalgastohydrogenwithcarbondioxideasaby-product,aconclusionwithwhichwestronglydisagree,thiscentralizedproductionwouldbedonenearcities,notthousandsofmilesaway.itwouldbeeasytoturnanexistingoilrefineryintoamerchanthydrogenplant.And,ifitmadesense to pipe the carbon dioxide a long distance (which we doubtbecauseitwouldbeeasiertocapturethecarbondioxideandfeedittoalgaeattheplantsite),thepipingofcarbondioxideisaninexpensiveprocess and canbemanaged in almost anyof the current typesoftransmissionpipelines.

Myth #5: Hydrogen cannot be distributed through existing pipelines.

The transportationofhydrogen, oneof themost frequentlymentionedconcernsofcritics,iseasilyaccomplishedthroughpipe-lines, using one of hydrogen’s most beautiful advantages—simpledistributedproduction.There isnoneed tocreateanewpipelinenetworktomovehydrogen;wecanusetheonealreadyinexistence.someexistingpipelinesarealreadyhydrogen-ready.Theotherscan


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easilybemodifiedwith existing technologiesby addingpolymer-compositeliners,similartotheprocessusedtorenovateoldsewerpipes.Tocomplete theprocess,wecould simplyaddahydrogen-blockingmetalliccoatingorliner,andconvertthecompressors.

usingexistingpipelinescreatesnoadditionalsafetyconcerns.A200-mile,crude-oilpipelinehasalreadybeenconvertedtohydro-gen.Becausemanyoldernaturalgaspipelinesystemswereoriginallycreatedfortheuseof“towngas,”whichwas50to60%hydrogenbyvolume,theyareeitherentirelyorlargelyhydrogen-compatible.Anypipelinesthatdoneedtobebuilthavetheadvantageofsmallsize,makingthemeasytosite.Furthermore,installingsmallreformersinbuildings—whichcannotonlypowerthebuildingsbutfuelthecaraswell—eradicatesworriesaboutdeliveryofthefuelsupply.

Already,hydrogenrefuelingstationsareappearing.GovernorArnoldschwarzeneggerhaspledgedhiscommitmenttoaCalifor-niaHydrogenHighwaynetworkinitiative“tosupportandcatalyzea rapid transition toa clean,hydrogen transportationeconomy.”18Florida and British Columbia have already created similar initia-tives.Otherstatesaresuretofollow.

Myth #6: There is no practical way to run cars on hydrogen.

Turning wheels with an electric motor has well-known andlong-established advantages of torque, ruggedness, reliability,simplicity, controllability, quietness, and economy. Virtually everylightrailandsubwaysystemhasbeendoingpreciselythisformorethanacentury.so,wheredoes21stcenturytechnologygettheelec-tricity?Ahybridelectricvehiclegeneratesenergyfrombrakingorfromanonboardengine.itprovidesalltheadvantagesofanelectricmotorwithoutthedisadvantagesofsize,weight,andpriceassoci-atedwithtraditionalbatteries.Withtheadditionoffuelcells,thisbecomesthemostefficient,clean,andreliablewaytomakeelectric-ityfromfuel,usingcurrenttechnology.

Hydrogen fuel cells have been used for space flights since1965andtheywereusedinapassengervehicleasearly1966(Gm’selectrovan). Fuel cells have been used for decades in aerospace

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andmilitaryapplications.Theyareemergingaspowersourcesforportableelectronicsandappliances.Theyarealreadycompetitiveforbuildings, aswell as industrialniches,when installed in the rightplaceandusedproperly.

Asoftoday,fuelcellvehiclesareundergoingrigoroustestingandarefaradvanced.Asofmid-2003,manufacturershadtensoffuelcellbusesandupwardsof100fuelcellcarsontheroad.Therewere156differentfuelcellconceptcarsand68demonstrationhydrogenfillingstations (seeFigure2below).Fuelcellsarecurrentlybeingtested formilitary vehicleson landand sea, and submarineshaveused them for years. Heavy trucks, which spend up to half theirenginerun-timeidlingbecausetheyhavenoauxiliarypowersource,arealsobeginningtoutilizefuelcells.FedexanduPsplantointro-ducefuel-celltrucksby2008.

Withsuchamassivewaveofresearchandtrial,fuelcellswillquickly advance, as each successful application benefits from itspredecessors’ experience. As a whole, mass production will drivedownthepriceoffuelcells.Withthe2006saleintheu.s.ofover250,000hybridelectriccarsoperatingonelectricmotors,thereisnolongeranyreasontoperpetuatethemyththatcarscannotrunonelectricity.

Myth #7: We lack a safe, affordable way to store hydrogen in cars.

Therealissuehereismobilestorageofhydrogen.Theconcernisthat itwouldbenecessarytoequipeveryhydrogenfuelcellcarwithasteelstoragetank,asopposedtothecheapplastictanksofmodernautomobiles.

Thisconcernwasaddressedseveralyearsagowiththecreationof filament-wound, carbon-fiber tanks lined with an aluminizedpolyesterbladder.Comparedtothenow-obsoletesolidmetallinertanks,advancedcarbon-fibertanksreducedtheweightof thefueltankbyhalfandcutthematerialscostbyathird.Theyhaveapproxi-mately9to13timesthestrengthoftheirmetalcounterparts.Theyare immune to corrosion, and extremely tough, escaping undam-agedincrashesthatshredgasolinetanks.Thepipesofahydrogen


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fuelcellcararealsomaintainedatthesamelowpressureasthefuelcell,thusremovingthecorrespondingconcernovertheweaknessofhigh-pressurehydrogenpipes.

Thecarbon-fiber tankscanbemassproduced for justa fewhundreddollarsapiece.A350-bar(5,000poundspersquareinch)hydrogentankisalmost10timesthesizeofacomparablegasolinetank intermsofenergycontent.ifyou includethehydrogenfuelcell’sgreatertwo-orthree-foldefficiencyadvantageoveraninternalcombustionengine,thissizedifferentialdecreasestoonlyaboutfourtimes.Furthermore,withahydrogenfuelcellcar,youcanremoveothercarparts,suchasthecatalyticconverter, thuscompensatingfortheadditionalvolumerequiredbythehydrogentanks.

Withmoderndesignmethodsandmaterials, carswill enjoyadvancedefficienciesthankstolessaerodynamicdrag,rollingresis-tance,andweight.Thus,theywillusetwo-thirdslesspower,therebydecreasingtheamountofhydrogenneededtodriveoveracompa-rabledistance.Themagicnumber that all automotivemakers aretargetingisarangeof300milesonasinglefuelingwithhydrogen.Gm’s sequel, a fuel cell concept car, has achieved this range byboostingthehydrogento10,000p.s.i.

Myth #8: Hydrogen is too expensive to compete with gasoline.19

despitedecadesofu.s.policies favoring theuseofpetro-leum,hydrogentechnologiesarealreadyclosetoeconomicviability.Whenweconsidersystem-widelifecyclecosts,hydrogenalreadyisadesirablealternativetofossilfuel.

Therelativecostsofhydrogenandgasoline-poweredvehiclescannotbecalculatedwithoutconsideringtheirrelativewellhead-to-wheelsefficiencies(i.e.,thepercentageofthetotalenergyextractedthatendsuppoweringthevehicle).Asdiscussedabove,only14%ofthetotalenergyextractedfromoilinthegroundendsuppoweringacar.ifweusenaturalgasastheinterimsourceofhydrogen,thewell-head-to-wheelsefficiencyofhydrogenis42%—threetimesgreaterthantheefficiencyofinternalcombustionengineswhichhavebeenoptimizedover thepast100years.Gasolinecan’t compete.These

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comparativeefficienciesofhydrogenovergasolinealsoapplytocarswith hydrogen internal combustion engines.This technology canplayaroleinashort-termhydrogentransitionstrategy.

Thegreenhousegasemissionsstoryisoverwhelminglyfavor-abletohydrogen.evenwhenhydrogenfuelisproducedfromnaturalgas,onaper-mile-drivenbasis,fuelcellcarsgenerateaslittleas30%ofthecarbondioxideproducedbygasoline-poweredcars.

Costisthebottomlinefactorformanyconsumerscontemplat-ingtheadoptionofnewtechnologies.Onekilogramofhydrogenisenergy-equivalenttoonegallonofgasoline.smallhydrogengenera-tors manufactured by the hundreds, installed at service stationssupportingafewhundredfuelcell-poweredcarsthatusenaturalgasasarawmaterialatacostof$6permillionBritishThermalunits,woulddeliverhydrogentocarsat$2.50perkg.Thisisequivalentto$2.50pergallongasoline.Ascurrenttrendscontinue,webelievethatthedaysof$2.50pergallongasolinewillbeveryfondmemories.

inmorecomparable terms,namelythecostpermiledriven,usingmodestlyefficienthydrogenfuelcellcarsthataretwotothreetimes more efficient than internal combustion engine cars, fullytaxedgasolineat$2.25pergallonwouldbeequivalenttohydrogensellingat$5perkg.inotherwords,hydrogencouldbepricedevenat$5perkgandcompetewithgasolineat$2.25pergallon.

With more technological improvements certain to rapidlyreducethepriceof99.99%purehydrogen,wecanrestassuredthatanaffordable,cleanenergyfutureisnotsofaraway.Generalmotorshasevenstatedthathydrogenbecomescompetitivewithgasolineat$2.25pergallon.20

“Hydrogen made in 20- or 180-nominal-car-per-day natural-gas reformers would have remained competitive with retail and wholesale gasoline, respectively, at the actual average prices of U.S. natural gas and gasoline for the past 22 years.”

— Amory Lovins, TwenTy Hydrogen MyTHs, 2003


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Gentlemen, Start Your Fuel CellsAutomakershavebeenresearchinghydrogen-poweredcarsfor

over adecade,but it isonlywithin thepastfiveyears thatr&dconcepts have been translated into prototypes and in some casesproduction-line products. As Figure 2 shows, BmW, daimler-Chrysler,Fordmotor,Generalmotors,Honda,Hyundai,mazda,nissan,Toyota, and Volkswagon have been leading the pack andspendingbillionsofdollarsonthenextfrontierofautomotivetech-nology: the hydrogen fuel cell car.21 While Honda is leading thechargewiththeHondaFCXanditshome-basedhydrogenenergystation, other companies are quickly catching up with hydrogenfuel cell concept cars that push the envelope in terms of design,efficiency,andcreativity.

Forexample,therevolutionfromHypercar,inc.maybethemostadvancedhydrogenfuelcellconceptcaryet.Hypercarvehiclesareultralight,ultra-low-drag,hybridelectricvehicleswithahighlyintegrated and simplified design emphasizing software-controlledfunctionality. While currently expensive and handmade, a newpatent-pending manufacturing process is expected to make thesecarbon-fiber cars affordable at automotive volumes of 10,000 to100,000vehiclesperyear.Thisconceptcarwillhavethesize,safety,comfort, and performance of a lexus rX300, yet with a modelaverage efficiency of 99 mpg-equivalent. estimates are that therevolutionwillhaveadrivingrangeof330miles,with3.4kgofhydrogenat350-bar(5,000poundspersquareinch)pressure.Thedrivingrangecanbeextendedtoover500mileswiththenewfueltanks,whicharebeingincorporatedbymanymanufacturers.22

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Figure 2. Hydrogen Car Programs by Major Automobile Manufacturers

* UTC Power is a United Technology Company (NYSE: UTX)

research is proceeding quickly on other storage methods,including liquidhydrogen,metalhydrides, andcarbonnanotubes.each method has advantages and disadvantages; but so far nonecomparewith thecurrentlyavailablehigh-pressure tanks in termsofweightorcost.inaddition,therearenosizeorsafetyreasonsthatprecludeusingcurrentgenerationtanks.Whilefurtherresearchonstoragetechnologyisdesirable,itisnotessentialforhydrogencardevelopment.intheend,andanalogoustonaturalgasastheinitialsourceofhydrogenforautomotivefuelcells,pressuretankstoragecaneasilyserveasthemeanstointroducefuelcellcars,whilefurther

Company Concept Car Name Program Description

BMW 750hL, H2R Hydrogen internal combustion engine

DaimlerChrysler F-Cell Based on Mercedes A-Class

Ford Motors Ford FCV Fuel Cell modification of Ford Focus

GM Sequel, HydroGen3 Multiple other models, listed are most important

Honda Honda FCX Current Leader, Home Hydrogen Energy Station

Hyundai Tucson FCEV Based on UTC Power fuel cell technology*

Mazda RX-8 Duel-fuel (hydrogen or gasoline) rotary engine

Nissan X-TRAIL FCV Based on UTC Power fuel cell technology*

Morgan Motor LIFEcar Performance-oriented, with other British groups

Toyota Highlander FCHV Under development and in active testing

Volkswagon Bora Hy.Power Projected to be in showrooms by 2010


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development unfolds a host of other technologies that increasehydrogenstoragedensityandextenddrivingrange.

Honda is one of the few companies that are already roadtestingahydrogenfuelcellcar,theHondaFCX.in2005,Hondaleaseditshomeenergystationanda2005HondaFCXtoafamilyinlosAngeles.itisreportedtooffer“everycomfortandqualityofaregularHonda,droveseamlessly,smoothly,andhandledlikethebestvehicles thecompanymakes.”23Thishydrogenfuelcellcar isexpectedtogointoproductionsometimebetween2008and2009.

As Gm, Ford, and Chrysler jockey for positions, foreigncompetitors are already announcing production dates. However,“Whenanyofthesecompaniesrollouttheirproductionmodelsin2009or2010,thosecarswillnotbeavailableatshowrooms,buttoselectcommercialandgovernmentcustomers,suchasmunicipali-ties,themilitary,andmajorcorporateandgovernmentfleetowners.itwillbeanotheryearortwofortheproductionvolumetobringdowncoststoconsumerlevels.”24

itisnoteworthythatbothBmWanddaimlerChryslermadesignificantprogresswiththehydrogeninternalcombustionengine.infact,BmWhasalreadyannounceda2008dateforinitialproduc-tion of its BmW Hydrogen 7 “eco-luxury” cars. However, wedonotbelieve that thehydrogen internal combustionenginewillbecome the standard for hydrogen-powered cars. Although envi-ronmentallyfriendly,itusescurrentinternalcombustiontechnologyandthuslosesthefundamentaladvantagesoftheextremelyefficienthydrogenfuelcell.

“Ironically, the American companies will not be leading the parade onto the hydrogen highway. That will be Honda, which will have to look over its shoulder continuously as it is chased by BMW, Audi, Toyota and other foreign car makers.”

— Edwin BLAck, InTernal CoMbusTIon, 2006

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Generating Hydrogen At HomeHondar&dCo.,ltd.jointlydevelopeditshydrogenhome

energy station with Plug Power inc., Honda’s strategic fuel cellpartnerforresearchanddevelopmentinhydrogenenergysources.duringfieldtestsofthestation’sabilitytogeneratehydrogenfromnatural gas foruse in fuel cell vehicleswhile supplying electricityandhotwaterforthehome,HondaconcludedthatthestationcancurrentlyproduceenoughhydrogentorefillthetankoftheHondaFCXfuel cell vehicle ina fewminutesonceaday.Thestation ismadeupofthefollowingprocessesandcomponents:

1.Areformertoextracthydrogenfromnaturalgas;

2.Afuelcellunit toprovidepower for theoverall systemthatusessomeoftheextractedhydrogen;

3.Arefinertopurifythehydrogen;

4.Acompressorforpressurizingtheextractedhydrogen;and

5.Ahighpressuretanktostorethepressurizedhydrogen.

Figure 3. Structural Outline for Honda Home Energy Station25

lookingahead,Hondahasalsoannouncedthedevelopmentofnext-generationsolarcellpanelsmadebyHondaengineering,aswellasahigh-efficiencyelectrolysisunit.Boththeadvancedlight-

Pressurization

Inverter

RefinerReformerNatural

Gas

Fuel Cell

Heat

StorageTank

Electricity

Hydrogen


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absorbing solar panels and the electrolysis unit are mounted onHonda’ssolarcell-poweredhydrogenrefuelingstationinTorrance,California, to improve total system efficiency. As a proponent ofthehydrogenfuture,Hondabelievesthat“hydrogenfuelcellpowerhasthepotentialtobethenext-generationpowerplantneededtoovercomeproblemsrelatedtothedevelopmentofalternativefuels,reducingexhaustgasemissions,andreducingtheeffectsofglobalwarming.”26

Hydrogen Technology and Global Economic Growth

in apaperon“Hydrogen and thenewenergyeconomy,”Julian Gresser and James A. Cusumano (one of this book’s co-authors)contend thatmanyenvironmentalandnational securityarguments on behalf of hydrogen miss what is perhaps its mostbeneficial impact: “Hydrogen could become a strategic businesssectorandanengineofglobaleconomicgrowthwithinthedecadeandfortheremainderofthe21stcentury.”27

it iswell known that at critical times in anation’sdevelop-ment,certainindustrieshavemadekeytechnologicalbreakthroughsandhaveprovideddynamic enginesofbroader economicgrowth.This growth occurs when competitive advantages won throughproductivity gains in a strategic business sector are transferred tootherindustries.

Famousexamplesoftheconvergenceofkeytechnologiesandrapid economic growth include: the canals and railroads of 18thand19thcenturyeuropeandtheunitedstates;thenewenglandmachine tool factories of the early 19th century; the Germanchemicaldyeindustryofthelate19thcentury;andmostrecently,the u.s. convergence of computer hardware, software, and inter-nettechnologyofthelate20thcentury.Japan’spost-WorldWariiindustries (steel, auto, electronics, semiconductors, computers andtelecommunications) show how economic innovation can triggerrapideconomicgrowth.

due to the tremendouspublicbenefits realized through the

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successofstrategictechnologiesandindustries,governmentshaveusually played a critical catalytic role in accelerating their devel-opment. notable historical examples are President Franklin d.roosevelt’sruralelectrificationAdministration,Presidenteisen-hower’sinterstatehighwaysystem,andPresidentKennedy’sApolloProject.

California has taken the national lead in implementing a“HydrogenHighwaynetworkActionPlan”thatwillbuild150to200hydrogenrefuelingstations,approximatelyoneevery20milesonCalifornia’smajorhighways.similarly,Floridahaslaunchedaninnovativeprogramtopromotehydrogenasastrategicgrowthsector.Craftingabroadallianceamongprivatecompanies,stateandlocalgovernment, universities, and environmental groups, the FloridaHydrogen strategy initially focuses on fuels cells, hydrogen stor-age,andpower-gridoptimization.Thestrategyofferstaxrefunds,investmenttaxcredits,performanceincentives,andenterprisebondfinancing.

Japan, Germany, Canada and iceland have major hydrogenprogramsunderway.Allofthesenationsunderstandthat,inadditiontolayingthefoundationforindependencefromoilandcreatingakeyindustrialsector,therapiddevelopmentofhydrogenwillaccelerateinnovation in related sectors, such as nano-materials, biotechnol-ogy,solarphotovoltaics,ultra-lightmaterials,andeventheinternet,throughdistributedpowergenerationandgridinterface.

Launching the U.S. Hydrogen EconomyGiventheurgencyoftheenergyandclimatecrisis,inaddi-

tiontoadoptingthePrometheusPlan,weurgethedevelopmentofabroadpoliticalconsensusaroundaplausiblestrategyforthetransitiontoahydrogeneconomy.Thisstrategywillapplyregula-tory,financialandothermarket-drivenincentives,whiledrawingonthebestavailabletechnologyandtalent.undertherubricofanon-partisannationalHydrogenTaskForce,thePresidentandtheCongressshouldconvenethenation’sleadinghydrogenscientists,engineers and inventors, along with top environmental lawyers,


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financeexperts,andspecialistsinpublic/privateenterprises.Theirmissionshouldbethedevelopmentofadraftstrategic

HydrogenAlliancereformandenterpriseAct(sHAre)thatwillcreate the statutory framework for accelerating the developmentofthehydrogeneconomyasquicklyaspossible,onaparwiththeurgencythataccompaniesastateofwaroranaturaldisaster.

Themainstagesofthistransitionplanareoutlinedbelowandincludethefollowingmilestones:

Phase I (2007-2010)—deploy existing technologies andcapabilities to expedite fuel cell researchanddevelopment and tovigorouslymarketsmallerfuelcellstohomesandbusinessesaslocal,distributedpower,whilethehydrogencarrunsonamodifiedinternalcombustionenginethatiscost-effectivetoday.Whereneeded,buildanationalhydrogen infrastructure, includingproduction facilities,pipelinesandfuelingstationsincoremetropolitanareas.

Phase II (2010-2015)—introduce multiple varieties of fuelcellcarsthatrunonhydrogen,generatedfromnaturalgasreforma-tionorelectrolyzedfromwater.

Phase III (2015-2020)—Achieve widespread commercial-izationoffuelcellvehiclesthatoperateonhydrogengeneratedbyrenewable energy sources such as solar- and wind-powered elec-trolysis.

Theultimategoalisthebroadtransitiontocleanand“Green”hydrogen generated from wind, solar, geothermal and possiblybiological systems, and minimum sales of 1,000,000 hydrogenfuelcellvehicles,equaltoa6%newcarmarketpenetration.Thespecific goals of each phase, which complement the automobileefficiency and biofuels strategies of the Prometheus Plan, are asfollows.inparalleltothesehydrogenmilestones,theplanwouldrequire automobile engines to be developed so that they couldfunctiononamixofplug-intechnologies,renewablefuelssuchasethanolorbiodiesel,andhydrogenfuelcellspoweredbyelectricityfromtheutilitygrid.

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Phase I: Deploy Existing Technologies and Capabilities (~2007-2010)28

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Status: Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and internal combustion engines that run on hydrogen come into the market; hydrogen fuel cell prototypes tested

1) immediatelyimplementthePrometheusPlan,whichfocusesprimarily on oil savings through automobile efficiency andbiofuelsinthetransportationsector.

2)establishfinancialincentivesthroughthesHAreActtoputhydrogenonaneconomicparwithpetroleum.

3)marketexistingfuelcellstobusinessesandhomesandalsotothegrowinghigh-reliabilitynicheforinformationtechnologiesandcommercialcomputeroperations.

4)Conduct extensive applications research and expeditecommercialdevelopmentandconstructionof thefirst large-scalefuelcellplants,tobringproductioncostsdowntoatleast$400perkw,competitivewithmostelectricpower.

5)Build on Ford and BmW strategies to offer current modelinternal combustion engines that run on hydrogen—25%more efficient and 70% less carbon dioxide emitting thanconventional engines—including leased transit and businessfleetswithaccesstoacentralhydrogengeneratorunit.

6)expandthenumberofhydrogenfillingstationsinmetropolitanareasandleaseprototypehydrogenfuelcellvehiclesintheseareas.

7)Acceleratecurrentresearchintonano-materialsforhydrogenstorage and initiate research for hydrogen generation fromsolar photocatalysis and genetically modified organisms(bio-hydrogen).29


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Phase II: Expand Infrastructure Beyond Core Metropolitan Areas (~2010-2015)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Status: Initial commercialization of affordable hydrogen fuel cell and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles / hydrogen fuel cell cars

1)Commercializenationwideprototypefuelcellvehicles,newlyaffordableduetofinancialincentivesprovidedtoautomakers,oil companies, and consumers. This should include earlyadoption of fuel-cell plug-in hybrid vehicles. Visionary oilcompanies and utilities complete the transformation intoenergyservicecompanies.

2) install new advancedwind- and solar cell-powered facilitiesfor efficient, economic generation of “Green” hydrogen viaelectrolysis.

3)expand hydrogen energy stations across the country, basedon hydrogen generated from water by electrolysis, to fuelstationaryfuelcellsinhomesandbusinesses.

4)Convertmostlargeseavesselstorunonbiofuelsorfuelcellpower.

5)Build new high-capacity hydrogen storage tanks based onbreakthroughsinnanomaterialsresearch.

6)Adapt existingpipelines to carryhydrogen,orwhere that isnot feasible, construct new hydrogen pipelines as needed inmetropolitanareas.

Phase III: A Hydrogen Nation (~2015-2020)

Hydrogen Fuel Cell Status: Widespread commercialization of hydrogen fuel cell cars, at least 5% of market

1)Ashomesandbusinessessupplyincreasinglylargeamountsofhydrogenfuelcell-generatedpowertothegrid,electricutilitiesincreasinglybecomepowerdistributorsandmuchlesspowergenerators.

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2)Consumerspluginparkedfuelcellvehiclesathomeandworktosupplyelectricpowertothegridatpeak-costperiods.

3)Businessesprovidehydrogentoemployeesasabenefit.

4)mostservicesstationsareconvertedtoproducehydrogenviasolarphotovoltaic,wind-poweredelectrolysis,orbyaccesstothenationalhydrogenpipelinesystem.

5)dramatically reduce costs through new technologies forgeneratinghydrogenviasolarphotocatalysisandbio-hydrogenandforstoringhydrogenviaadvancedmaterials.Thisincludesthe early adoption of specially developed algae for farms toproducebacteriatogeneratehydrogen.30

An International Hydrogen Prometheus PlanThepathtowardthehydrogenfutureisalreadybeingpavedby

privateinitiativesandgovernmentsupportintheunitedstates,theeuropeanunion, and Japan.Beginningwithflexible-fuelhybridsandnaturalgasreformers,thehydrogenrevolutioncouldtakeplacealong the linesof the scenario that follows,basedon evolutionary ratherthanbreakthroughimprovementsintechnology.

A viable hydrogen platform requires the development of adecentralized energy economy, beginning with the installation ofnatural-gasreformersorwaterelectrolyzerunitsinofficebuildingsand for use by commercial transportation fleets. next, hydrogenfuel cell cars will be deployed in commercial fleets that return tocentraldepotsforanightlyrefueling.Oncethereisexcesshydrogen-generatingcapacityatfleetdepotsandincommercialbuildings,thiswill be quickly followed by the leasing of mass market hydrogenfuelcellcarstopeoplewhoworkinornearbuildingsequippedwithnatural-gasreformers.Thesparecapacityofthebuildings’hydrogenapplianceswillbesoldtotheleasedhydrogenfuelcellcars.

Asstationaryhydrogenproductionunitsbecomecheaper,theywill be deployed outside buildings. using natural gas or electricity,theselocalhydrogenfuelstationswilltaketheplaceoftoday’sfillingstations.Withoutthecostburdenoftransportationanddistribution,


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hydrogenwillbecomerelativelycheapandeconomicallyviable,whilereducing vehicle emissions by 50 to 82%. it is noteworthy that inadditiontothefuelcellitself,manyofthecomponentshavebeenwelldevelopedoverthelastdecade.Forexample,severalcompaniessuchasunitedTechnologiesCorporationintheu.s.andHaldorTopsoeindenmarkdevelopedcommercial,compactsteamreformersthatcangeneratepurehydrogenfromnaturalgasoncall.Whendirectlyinter-facedwithafuelcell,theycanelectric-loadfollow,i.e.,theyproducejust therightamountofhydrogendependingonthe instantaneousrequirementofthefuelcell.

Thehydrogenrevolutionwillconformtothesamekeyprin-ciples as the Prometheus Plan, including no major technologicalbreakthroughs,justinevitableimprovementsoncurrentknowntech-nologies.Therewillbenoneedfornewtaxes,orhugegovernmentsubsidesforinfrastructureeventhoughstrategicfederalincentives,asoutlinedabove,willbeneededtoacceleratethetransition.

The building of the decentralized hydrogen productioneconomyassumesa10%orgreaterperyearrealreturn.Thosewhoparticipatewillbeabletomakesubstantialprofitsevenduringtheinitial phase, and enjoy the benefits of being strategically well-positionedonce the transition is complete.major improvementsinstationeryhydrogenproductionunitswillbedrivenbyadesiretoeitherminimizethecostsof improvementsormaximizetheirdurability, which criteria will respectively favor cars and build-ings.itmatterslittlewhichonehappenstoarrivefirst;eitherwaytheincreaseinproductioninonemarketwillacceleratetheother.Technologieswillbootstrapeachotheraswelearnfromdisparateapplications.

AsGresserandCusumanopointout,“Ashydrogenbecomesa strategic economic driver for the united states and the majorindustrializednations,itcanservethissamefunctionformanyothercountries,richandpoor.”31Here,thesizeandrisksofsomehydrogenprojectsarewell-suitedforinternationalcollaborationsthatcanbepursuedonthesamegrandscaleastheApolloProjectintheunitedstates, themarshallPlan ineurope, theworldwide international

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Thermonuclearexperimentalreactor, and the intergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangeprojects.

Asnewcountriesenterthehydrogenconsortium,eachonecandevelopspecialexpertiseandleveragebasedonitsuniqueresourcesand skills.Public/privatehydrogen alliances canprovidepowerfulcatalystsforinnovation.Forexample,acceleratingcostbreakthroughsinhydrogengenerationandstorage,andinfuelcellmanufacturing,canproducehugecommercialandgovernmentalreturns.

The financial foundation of the hydrogen Prometheus Plancould be an international Hydrogen innovation Fund, initiallycapitalizedwith$5billionprovidedbynational and internationalentities.Thefundwouldbemanagedbyan international teamofsuccessful technology,business, and social entrepreneurs,with thegoalofachievingsuperiorratesofreturnforshareholderswithinfiveyearsforfundingearly,middleandlatestageprojects.

Thehydrogeneconomyistheonly reliable long-term solutionto the energy and climate crisesconfronting civilization. There isnow no other technology optionthat can safely produce cleanenergy to power transportationsystems and our stationary infra-structure to sustain current levelsof global prosperity, let alone increase these levels to sustain ourfellowplanetarycitizens.ifproperlymanaged,thisgreattransitionwillbeprofitableandbeneficialforallstakeholders.Thehydrogenrevolutionisoneofthegreatestlegaciesourgenerationcouldpassontoourchildrenandchildren’schildren.

Horacemann,apioneeringadvocateoffree,publiceducationin the America, said, “Be ashamed to die until you’ve won somegreatvictoryforhumanity.”32Allwhojoininthisgrandenterprisetobringaboutthebirthofthehydrogenagewillparticipateinoneof humanity’s greatest victories: the creation of a safe, clean andsustainableenergyfuture.

“We don’t receive wisdom. We must discover it for ourselves after a journey that no one can take for us or spare us.”— mArcEL Proust, Author,

1871-1922


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Notes and References Chapter 12: Hydrogen Revolution

1 “HydrogenBomber,”Time,november13,2006.

2 http://corporate.honda.com/environment/fuel_cells.aspx?id=fuel_cells_fcx,February6,2007.

3 http://www.fuelcellcontrol.com/evs19.html.

4 For example, Joseph Priest, Energy: Principles, Problems, Alternatives, Fifthedition(dubuque,iowa,Kendall,2000),by-passesanydiscussionofhydro-gen,whilerogerA.Hinrichs andmerlinKleinback,Energy: Its Use in the Environment,Fourthedition(Belmont,California:Thompson,2006),giveitonlyapassingmention.

5 Paulroberts,The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World(newYork:HoughtonmifflinCompany,2004),152.

6 lesterBrown,Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble(newYork:W.W.norton&Company,2006),193.

7 Worldwatchinstitute,State of the World 2006, Chapter4,“Cultivatingrenew-ableAlternativestoOil”(2006),63.

8 richardHeinberg,Power Down: Options and Actions for a Post-Carbon World(BC,Canada:newsocietyPublishers,2004),129.

9 Josephromm,The Hype About Hydrogen: Fact and Fiction in the Race to Save the Climate(Washingtond.C.:islandPress,2005),9.

10 “Toyota goal: 1 million Hybrids a year,” usAToday, June12,2007; see JohndeCiccoet al.,Technical Options for Improving the Fuel Economy of U.S. Cars and Light Trucks by 2010-2015,Washington,d.C.,AmericanCouncilforanenergy-efficienteconomy,July2001.

11 roberts,op. cit.,319.

12 Amory lovins, “Twenty Hydrogen myths,” rocky mountain institute,september2003.Wehaveadaptedmyths1-7sequentiallyfromthelovinspaperandincorporatedmyth#9as#8.

13 Ibid.,6.

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14 Hydrogen market, Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_economy#Hydrogen_market; u.s. imports by Country of Origin, energyinformation Administration, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_a.htm.

15 dr.AddisonBain,Introduction to Hydrogen Safety,unlVHydrogensafetyWorkshop,April10,2006.

16 seethefootagetakenbydr.michaelswain,universityofFlorida,miami,athttp://evworld.com/view.cfm?page=article&storyid=482.

17 B. eliasson and u. Bossel, “The Future of the hydrogen economy: BrightorBleak,”Proceedings, Fuel Cell World,luzern,switzerland, July1-5,2002,367-82.

18 Governorschwarzenegger’sHydrogenHighwaynetworkActionPlan,may25,2005,www.hydrogenhighway.ca.gov/vision/vision.html.

19 Foradditionalinformationonhydrogencosts,seeJulianGresserandJamesA.Cusumano,“Hydrogenandthenewenergyeconomy:AsensiblePlanforthenextAdministration,”Projectearthrise,WorldBusinessAcademy,18:2,October7,2004.

20 danlienert,“Arnold’sHydrogenHummer,”Forbes,January4,2005.

21 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_car.

22 see www.hypercar.com. Amory lovins, founder and CeO of the rockymountaininstitute,isalsoChairmanoftheBoardofHypercar,inc.HypercarrecentlyannouncedachangeofnametoFiberforge.

23 edwinBlack,Internal Combustion(newYork,st.martinsPress,2006),312.

24 Ibid.,313.

25 “Honda Begins experiments with Hydrogen Home energy station andimprovessolar-CellTechnologyforProductionofHydrogen,”Pressrelease,HondamotorCompany,ltd.,October2,2003.

26 Ibid.

27 GresserandCusumano,op. cit.,11.

28 Ibid.,14-15.Phasei,iiandiiiareadapteddirectlyandinsomecasesnearlyverbatimfromtheGresser-Cusumanostrategy.


438


29 Black,op. cit.,309,describeshowscientists inGermanyandtheu.s.“havebeenabletoextracthydrogenfromwastewater,biomass,andevendungusingavarietyofcommonalgae.”

30 Ibid.

31 GresserandCusumano, op. cit.,13.

32 Horace mann, Baccalaureate sermon, Antioch College, Antioch, Ohio,1859.

12 · 2012-12-21 · 403 12 hydrogen revolution: growth, jobs, security & sustainability “the...

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